Transcription
Last week you had names like Jonathan Taylor, Devon Aan, Jamir Gibbs, Trayvon Henderson, Trey McBride, and the old man Matthew Stafford. They went off in fantasy football, and they were the reason you probably won your week.
Well, in today's video, that's the entire goal. We want to identify those guys for this coming week, week number 11, guys that are set to go nuclear. And we've also got some desperation flexes at the end of the video. So, those are going to be very helpful if you're in a tricky situation.
Let's start off with my first player. I have no doubt in my mind that this guy's about to go hamburger mode. That is Jaylen Warren versus the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are a dream matchup for your running back this entire season. The best matchup when you look at the last four weeks of data. By the way, every matchup we're going to look at in today's video, we're going to reference the last four weeks of data uh just to see the latest trends. But in 2025, the Bengals give up the most rushing yards per game, the most total yards per game, and the most points allowed per game to opposing offenses. They are the worst defense right now. It's kind of the Commanders and them trying to figure out who can be the worst this year. But Jordan Mason, his one incredible game this year in fantasy football came against the Bengals. RJ Harvey dominated them. Josh Jacobs 32 points. Jaylen Warren just a couple weeks ago averaged almost eight yards per carry, 158 yards, almost 20 PPR points and no touchdowns. Kongai stepped in for DeAndre Swift and had almost 200 all-purpose yards, seven yards per carry. Guys, this defense is absolutely awful. And Warren's going to have another chance to dominate them.
Now, if you look at the overunder in this game, 49 and a half points, that's fantastic. The Steelers are favored by five and a half points. uh and it is in Pittsburgh. All of that favors Jaylen Warren. If you actually look at their implied team point total, you're looking at 28 points. That is the most implied points for any team this entire week. They have every opportunity to to be dominant against these Bengals. And speaking about Jaylen Warren himself, if you need more reasons, you know, more fuel for the fire, if you will, if you look at running backs, uh, yards after contact per tackle force per touch, guess who you're going to see at the top right of that screen, that is Mr. Jaylen Warren. He is turning lemons into lemonade. He is doing more after contact than pretty much any other running back in the NFL through nine weeks is what we were looking at right there. Mike Tomlin. Obviously, a lot of people are asking like, "Hey, why can't you get him on the field more? Last week, he played 46% of the snaps." Kenneth Gainwell was out there for 52% in the snaps. So, that was very annoying to a lot of fantasy managers. Understandably so. But in that game, they were down for the vast majority of the game against the Chargers and they had to come back from behind. So, they couldn't really get their normal offense going. But that's why everyone was so annoyed that Kenneth Gaml had 27 snaps, just 24 for Jaylen Warren. But again, looking at the game script for this game in particular and thinking about how it's going to play out, you anticipate the Steelers being up at home, five and a half point favorites. This should be a big game for Jayla Warren. I'm projecting 110 plus all-purpose yards in a top 12 finish.
Okay, this takes me to my spicy hot bold take of the week. Marvin Harrison Jr. with the help of his new quarterback. Jacobe Meyers will put up a 100 plus yards and finish as a top 12 receiver against the San Francisco 49ers. Right now, the Niners are the fifth best matchup for your running uh for your wide receivers, excuse me. By the way, uh they have had a lot of injuries across the board in San Francisco. And if we just look at the last three games, in the last three games, the Niners are giving up the fifth most passing yards per game in the NFL, the sixth most total yards and the eighth most points allowed per game. In the last three games, they're giving up almost 31 points to opposing offenses. It's been rough because this defense is just completely decimated. Xavier Hutchinson had 18 points against them. In the same game, Jaden Higgins had 14 and a touchdown. Last week, Devonte Adams had 20 points. Puka had a great day. I mean, you look at the overunder in this as well. 48 and a half points. It's a close spread. It's in Arizona, so that obviously favors a guy like Marvin Harrison Jr. And if we look at the last two games alone since Jacob's kind of taken over as that guy, uh Marvin Harrison Jr. is third in targets, 22 targets in the last two games. Only Nico Collins and Jamar Chase have more in that span. So, I'm projecting 100 plus yards again and a top 12 finish for Mr. Marvin Harrison Jr.
Okay, player number three. This is no surprise, but look at the title of today's video. We're talking about a guys that we anticipate going off. And I have so much confidence in this guy. It's crazy because I wasn't big on him before the year. I'm not going to lie to you guys. But Rico Dattle against the Atlanta Falcons, this should be a dominant game from him. In the last four weeks, the Falcons are the second best matchup for your running back. Again, looking at the last four weeks of data and the Falcons in 2025, check this out. They're giving up the fewest passing yards per game and the most rushing yards allowed per game. So, where do you attack the Atlanta Falcons? I don't know, guys. Let's put two and two together. You attack them on the ground. Rico Dattle has been dominant this year. Uh there are only two running backs since October 1st that have 850 plus scrimmage yards. It's Jonathan Taylor and it's Rico Dattle and that's it. There's nobody else competing with them at the top of the league right now. Rico Dattle, by the way, in the last two games has played over 70% of the snaps and has dominated touches, right? 28 touches in week nine versus the Green Bay Packers and 21 touches in New Orleans last week or versus New Orleans last week. He's been dominant. They give him the keys to the kingdom. In the last two weeks, Chuba Hubard under 25% of the snaps, under seven touches per game, barely being utilized. This is Rico Dattle's backfield until further notice. Uh, and if you look at the rushing yard leaders through 10 weeks, we will see Rico Dattle at third, guys. Rico Dattle has more rushing yards than Devon Aan. Uh, he's right there there with the James Cooks and the Jonathan Taylor. Do not discount Rico Dattle. He is a legitimate threat in this offense. Now, of course, you know, you look at the overunder, it's not high. 42 and a half points, uh, but it is a divisional game. It should be a close affair. I'm projecting 20 touches and 120 plus all-purpose yards for young Rico. Well, he's not young, but just sounds cool.
All right, my fourth player here is going to be controversial. There's just there's just no doubt about it whatsoever. We're talking AJ Brown versus the Lions. Now, in the last four weeks, the Lions are the 10th best matchup for your fantasy wide receivers. Uh, we've seen TZ Johnson have 16 points and a touchdown. He almost had two touchdowns. Baker just missed him. That could have been a bigger day for him. Justin Jefferson finally got into the end zone. 17 points for him. If you look at the overunder in this game, 46 and a half points. It is in Philadelphia. So, obviously that is beneficial to the Eagles. Uh, just just for their team overall. They need to to get back at home and get things back on track. They have a 24 and a half implied team point total this week. That is top 10 on the week. And look, I get it. AJ Brown has not been good. It's been disappointing. I mean, last week I won a game in the Flock League because of how disappointing he was. Two catches, 13 yards. Sometimes defenses, they just shut down an offense. And what we saw in Monday Night Football was two elite defenses just playing better than the offenses. But if you think about these two games, the Detroit Lions are a machine. They're going to put up big-time points. They just always do. And you're going to need to throw the ball with Philadelphia Eagles. So, I'm projecting him to come back into this game and be a big part of it. Uh, I'm projecting five catches, 120 yards.
Okay, my fifth player I think is going to go off this week. That is T. Higgins at the Steelers. In the last four weeks, the Steelers have been the best matchup for your fantasy wide receivers. They've definitely improved as a defense, but still, even in the last four weeks, they have been the best matchup. It's not even close. The Steelers defense this year, by the way, giving up the most passing yards per game and the most total yards allowed per game. In recent weeks, Michael Pitman had a 20-point game. Alec Pierce in the same game had 17 and a half. Lad Makoni last week got into the end zone over 20 points himself. T. Higgins by the way you're what you're looking at in 2025 is games with Joe Flacco on the left side and games without Joe Flacco on the right side. With Joe Flacco averaging almost 17 points per game, over 70 receiving yards and almost a touchdown per game with Joe Flacco. I mean Joe Flacco has been a revelation for this team. He has been better than anything they could have ever anticipated. Uh T. Higgins, by the way, last time out with Joe Burrow, had two TDs, 121 yards, over 33 fantasy points. So, you never walk away from a heater. That's what you have here. By the way, if you look at the biggest risers and fallers from the first half to the second half of the season so far, T. Higgins and Jamar Chase are some of the biggest risers plus 11.2 uh in PPR points per game in that span. So, Joe Flacco has been an absolute revelation. T. Higgins is currently tied for fourth with uh in receiving touchdowns with Michael Pitman. He has been so so good with Joe Flacco. I would not anticipate that stopping this week in a high overunder. A game where you're probably going to see both of these quarterbacks needing to air the ball out. So, I'm projecting five catches and 100 plus yards for Mr. T. Higgins.
Okay. Sixth player I think is going to dominate. Ashton Genty versus the Cowboys. Cowboys are the fifth best matchup for your running backs in the last four weeks. Here's what I will say. Quinnon Williams was just traded to the Cowboys. So, we'll see what that does for the defensive line in the rush defense. It's obviously going to improve it, but still, we're going to chase this matchup. This year, they've given up uh they've been top five in rushing yards allowed, total yards allowed, and total points given up. Uh you can remember back to Josh Jacobs having a 31-point game. Bree not Bree Hall not getting into the end zone, but still scoring over 17. Rico Dat having 239 yards. uh in his revenge game, if you will. So, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about this game. Uh if you look at the overunder here for the Raiders and the Cowboys, 50 and a half points, that is tied for the highest overunder of the week. And Vegas does anticipate it being a close game. I'm surprised. Maybe it's because it's in Vegas. I would anticipate the Cowboys being heav he heavy favorites, but only a three and a half point spread. Uh and Ashen Genty, by the way, has been much much better in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year. Uh from weeks one to three, his first three games as a rookie, averaged under nine points per game, was not getting a lot of usage through the air, uh was not being utilized the way that we wanted him to. But from weeks four to 10, you can see much better. Uh top 10 in rushing attempts per game, top 10 in touchdowns, um total yards, he's averaging almost 90 per game. He's averaging 17 and a half points per game. the RB12 in that span. So, he's been much better. They have relied on him. In this game, I'm projecting 18 plus touches, 100 plus all-purpose yards. He should have a fantastic game.
The seventh player I project to go off this week, Roma Dunay at the Minnesota Vikings. Again, in the last four weeks, the Vikings are the second best matchup for your fantasy wide receivers. In recent weeks, you know, only looking at the last couple weeks of data here, you remember Devont Smith had nine catches, 183 yards, and a touchdown over 33 points. He was absolutely dominant against this defense. You go back to Lab Makoni a couple weeks ago, 21 points. Jameson Williams got into the end zone starting to revive his season. Uh you look at the overunder in this game, it's a 47 and a half point overunder. It's in Minnesota, so you don't have to worry about the weather. We've got the dome, which we absolutely love. And obviously, we all remember Roma laying the goose egg in week nine against the Bengals. He was set up to smash. No points whatsoever. his dad went to Twitter and got, you know, uh, some some attention on social media and then he got the first, uh, throw of the game and he replied afterwards in interviews and said, "Yeah, thanks, Dad. Thanks for that." But by the way, Roma Dun is just absolutely dominating in his second year. If you look at total receiving yards through the first four years for Bears wide receivers, Roma Dunes has over,200 yards. that ranks 14th, okay, in the first four seasons uh for Bear wide receivers, but he's only played one and a half seasons so far. So, he's definitely on the right projections, uh right trajectory, rather. He is everything you've wanted him to be so far. Six catches, 100 yards is my projections here for Rome Adun.
I got three great desperation flexes in today's video. But first, I want to tell y'all last week I got top 10 in the DFS contest with Fast Draft. I was so close. I just didn't hit the right boosters. Now, you can set your own lineups for week 11. I certainly will be doing. All you got to do is choose six non-quarterbacks, set your boosters, download the Fast Draft app, use my promo code, land a match your deposit up to 50 bucks. You get some free slips on me and you'll get my week 11 rankings completely free. Check that out in the pin comment if you want to have some fun outside of your home leagues. You know, just sprinkle in a little bit of more fun with fantasy football.
All right, let's go to some of my flexible spot start options, desperation plays if you're in a tough spot this week. Starting at quarterback, my desperation play of the week, and I don't think it's bad, honestly. I think you could probably be playing with some confidence. Two attack of Aloa versus the Commanders. This is the international game in Madrid. Washington in the last four weeks, the fourth best matchup for your quarterbacks. Toph four in total yards allowed and total points given up per game. In the last couple weeks, if you remember, Sam Darnold embarrassed his team on prime time. Four touchdowns in one half. Jared Goff last week, three touchdowns, 320 passing yards. Uh, by the way, two attack of Aloa, last time he played the Commanders in 2023, two passing touchdowns, 280 yards, 18 out of 24 passing. Uh, uh, he was absolutely dominant. The Commander defense from last year to this year, complete turnaround in the opposite direction. They have been woeful. The age has really caught up to them. And by the way, Marshon Latimore, as if the defense wasn't already bad enough, he's out for the year with an injury. Trey Amos, their promising young rookie, broke his fibula, so he's gone. And De'Arren Payne was also suspended for one game, even though technically Amanra also hit him. I'm not sure if they're going to look into that or not, but uh yeah, so this defense is potentially like all time bad, all-time bad defense you have here in Washington. And unfortunately, uh the international audience is going to have to watch that in real time. But if you look at implied team point total on the week, you will see the Dolphins in the top 10 at 25 implied uh team points, excuse me, which is very good sign for two attacka. You go and look at the overunder, 47 and a half points. The Dolphins are favored. It should be a good game. I'm projecting him to put up 250 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. That's pretty aggressive. I think he's a safe streamer.
Okay, the ninth player I'm really really diving deep into my bag for you guys if you're in a desperate spot. This guy does not fit the criteria for this video, but I want to give you some realistic options if you're in a Hail Mary situation. Shawn Tucker at the Buffalo Bills. Okay, the Bills are the sixth best match up for your running backs in the last four weeks of data. And in 2025, the Bills are giving up the third most rushing yards per game and the third fewest passing yards per game. So, typically you do want to attack these guys on the ground. It is in Buffalo, so the Bucks are still going to have to throw the ball, but this is one of those games where you do anticipate two offenses. Uh, it could be a barn burner 47 and a half point uh overunder, which is definitely what we love to see. And Shawn Tucker, by the way, did something last week that nobody this entire year has done against the New England Patriots defense. He is the only running back this year to put over 50 rushing yards on the New England Patriots defense. Bejian, Judkins, James Cook, Genty, Dao, and Han. Those guys could not do it. Sean Tucker did do it. And by the way, he only did it on nine rushing attempts. 5.9 yards per carry last week. Uh so maybe they're going to get him more and more involved because clearly he is the more effective and efficient running back than Rashad White. You can actually see since Bucky Irving went down, Rashad White and Tuck Tucker Craft, uh Tucker Craft far more efficient. He's far more explosive and through contact he's been better. I promise you that we as fantasy football players are looking at the analytics. The NFL teams are as well. Okay. Sean Tucker should get more and more opportunities depending on how long we see um you know Bucky Irving out for. You can see the designed uh carries are pretty much split in half in the last two weeks for these for these two teams. So, if you're planning on playing Rashad White, you should have probably just as much confidence in a Shawn Tucker because the usage is starting to get really close. You know, 10 to nine carries. The targets are getting close. The total yard yardage is getting close. So, uh yeah, I I think he's a fine, desperate play. I'm projecting 10 touches and 60 yards.
Okay, last play of the week is a desperation play. Again, it's in the same matchup. That is Cade Autton. Now, Kate Dton, if you look at the last four weeks, he is fourth in target share amongst tight ends at 24%. His 28% target share in week 10 was 16th highest amongst all players, including wide receivers, running backs, and this was the first week where they were without Godwin and Evans. And the first week without Godwin and Evans, he had 12 targets, nine catches, 82 yards in a game where they were down for the entire game. They're in Buffalo again. Surely Kate Dton's going to get plenty of opportunities. Well, what I'm projecting is five catches and at least 60 yards, a safe blur. Both Tucker and Autton or are playable in this game uh for different reasons.
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