Transcription
Today's number, guys, doesn't get any bigger. $7 trillion at stake in the world economy of bonds. And it's all because of a few different things. What's going on in Japan right now? What's happening when it comes to the US dollar and other hedges around the world, and of course, one of the biggest moves we've ever seen recorded on silver. Yes, we just had almost a trillion dollars getting wiped off in just one day of trade. So, what exactly is going on and why do we need to be paying attention as traders and investors? Join us as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos, unpacking everything that you need to know right now. See you soon, guys. This will be a very good one.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson. It's great to be back and have you here. And we have got a lot to talk about because we are kicking off massive earning season this week. Obviously, we need to talk about bonds and what's going on in the US and the US dollar. And then we've got even Warren Buffett himself coming out and starting to put some concerns on whether we're going to see strength on the dollar to come. But even bigger things are starting to happen as well. We've got some big filings coming in from, yes, your favorite trader and mine, Nancy Pelosi, who actually has come out and sold a couple of positions. I'm just going to read you a few of these positions. So, she sold $50 million of Apple, $5 million of Nvidia, $5 million of Disney, and didn't buy anywhere near the quantities back. So, is this a pretty big deal? Well, as Pelosi Tracker says here, one of the things about this one, I think, was the sells. And remember, they are from December positions. So it just shows that there was a little bit of potential window dressing. But on top of that, we've also got a maybe movement out of the Magnificent 7 stock, which of course we have seen come in through flows over the last couple of months anyway since the Federal Reserve first cut back last year in September.
So how many things do we need to talk about, guys? We have the yen. We have what's going on exactly with the dollar right now. And obviously some massive hedges potentially starting to show extreme volatility. A sign of actual weakness in the economic system. Let's first start off though with one of the big stories which is the yen jumping the most since August on risk of intervention ramping up. Obviously a snap election being called over in Japan and sending bond yields up. Yen's of course down against the dollar. Big movements in currencies across the weekend and into of course this week so far and more importantly a stress in the financial system.
Now if you're not aware of it, we have talked about of course Japanese dollars before. We've also talked about of course the debt line that is over there which is of course one of the biggest creditors in the world and we've always said you know it's not really too big of a concern but it's starting to become one and I thought we might need to go through a couple of charts here. Now, I believe Michael Bur's been going on about this as well, and he's also posted some charts similar to these ones, and these are sourced from Bloomberg. But basically, what's occurring here is we're seeing something that has not happened for pretty much my entire trading career. Japanese bond yields skyrocketing up. And we've just crossed a couple of big things here. We've seen the long yields go above 4% for the first time, and of course, we've seen 2% on the shorter yields. And as you can see in most of the developed world, Japan has always been considered the kind of cheap money because as you can see here, most of the developed world's been working at around 4% for quite some time.
So how does this impact everyone? Well, it means the spreads are starting to decline and and get in. And as this happens, it puts a lot of pressure on the financial system. Have a look here at Japanese holdings of overseas securities and it's rising towards a new record. At the same time, we're also seeing huge movements of course potentially in the Japanese portfolio and the US. Japanese holdings of bonds and stocks combined at the end of 2024, which is still pretty similar. We can see here is massive when it comes to the US holdings. And a lot of people also look at the Cayman Islands holdings and they tend to believe they're also kind of proxying in at the same level. But this does show the level of risk here, should we see what we call the unwind of this particular trade that's been going on for well over 10 to 15 years now. If this does start to flash amber and it starts to spill over from Japan into of course the US bonds, the German bonds and other markets will be one of the first to of course report on that.
But for now guys, it's an interesting story. It's obviously something you got to keep in the back of your mind this year and it is starting to affect flows particularly against the US dollar and we're seeing a little bit of movement there when it comes to the dollar and there are a few reasons why. One of them could be Buffett as well. And Buffett actually came out and said that he's concerned about debasement of the US dollar over the next decade to maybe even 20 years. And he's obviously warned against this before, but he's also starting to think that kind of sign towards the gold and silver is becoming kind of the main narrative. And I would like to say, you know, we've been talking about gold and silver, gold for 3 years now on the channel, silver obviously for well over a year. And we suspected that we were in a currency war. But we also suspected that of course we're in debasement already. I don't think many of you guys are not aware of that. However, for any new time viewers, the key here is that when everyone starts talking about something, it often becomes crowded. And one of my favorite followers over there, macro charts over on X has actually pulled up this chart here from Bloomberg and it shows that betting on weaker dollar has just hit a record premium. So just as everybody talks about debasement, just as everybody starts to freak out completely about the dollar, you'll actually see everyone is actually doing it as well in terms of premium. And this sometimes does does mark an inflection point. And if you're looking at the charts right now in front of us, and we will look at the dollar a little bit later on, you may notice it is on that allimportant trend line that has been following since of course 2007. So, as we often say on this channel, patience, react, don't predict. There's not too much you're really going to gain from jumping in on some of these trades right now, but the main thing is to recognize that this is when everyone's talking about them.
In bigger news, we've also got silver. That was absolutely insane. in. And I've got to say, you know, if you told me last year when we were talking about silver to $75, $85 when it was like $30 bucks and $25 bucks and that kind of level that we were going to hit not only $118 almost, but at the same time, we would hit $18 and then be back at almost $100 in the same day, I'd probably say, "Yeah, you're a little crazy." But that's exactly what just happened, guys. $900 billion was wiped off in 90 minutes. And this was not based on a catalyst. This was just basically a huge amount of volatility. Now, I've got to say, does anyone else hate the way some of these um chat bots are writing stuff out there right now? They always write it the same way. It's like, "This is not just an attack. This is coordinated." That kind of thing. It's really annoying. I'm sure you'll put comments down below. But don't worry, we're not talking about chat bots here. What we are discussing though is the idea that this $900 billion was wiped off just like this. And what that's telling us is that there is extreme pressure now in this market and most likely powerful forces at work. Remember I talk a lot about volatility entering the chat. And when volatility volatility comes into the markets, you've got to start to say, okay, is that trade starting to end. I would argue that is one of the largest V events I've seen on the markets. And it does kind of mark up here pretty well with some data that I was sharing here from Blue Curtic just 24 hours ago in our macro class. If you ever want to join that, by the way, fxevolution.com, marketmasters club, come do the macro. It's a little bit different to this show, but more in-depth, of course, about the current market futures and flows, and I think a lot of you guys will enjoy it. It's always great to see new members over there. Got a great community.
Anyway, silver versus S&P. When we see silver go as much as it just did, it crosses a ratio. Now you guys know I am a big ratio trader and um yeah I think this is a huge key point because basically S&P and silver have just crossed a massive rate of change 50% outperformance from silver. Now this tends to happen either during a mega crash that is a crash into a recovery or it tends to potentially happen actually just before those kind of crash periods. Now you'll notice over here back in 2007 kind of period we got very close to hitting the same level. Now I know why blue blue kurdie has left this off because you do get some false positives as well. But I would say that when silver ramps like this when basically the S&P 500 has been underperforming silver by a drastic amount this can lead into at least some short-term outperformance or poor performance from the S&P. And I kind of feel like that's where we're at. Remember, since October, the S&P has not really been doing anything and instead it has been rotation, rotation, rotation, and that's kind of been where the money's at.
Now, there have been a couple of other big posts. This one's here from Jim Carroll over on X, and he's basically said when the US dollar yen goes down in a big way, that is the yen kind of goes up, the dollar goes down, that the S&P could be in for volatility. Now, I went back and had a little back test on this. While it's true of the last two major sell-offs, maybe because it's becoming a little bit more risky here in this whole carry trade and everything's going on, you've also got the uh the fact that before that it wasn't correlated. So, take these kind of things, make sure you go and process them. Uh but I would say that won't be the reason I would be looking to short. But what I did want to do is bring it up because I think it's an interesting correlation either way.
This one here from the sober look Lance Roberts you can see is the Bank of America bull bear indicator. It's sitting at a 9.2. Now the last time we saw this was before a bit of a tantrum over here in 18. We obviously know what happened in Feb 2020. Wasn't great, was it? And then of course we can see here that we had a few minor pullbacks as well off levels. We actually hit a very similar level back in October of 25 as well. So in January of 2026 what's happening? The bull bear spread is through the roof. So, it does show that euphoria is in this market and people are obviously not considering risks.
We've also got some other big transactions going on into this week's earnings. We've seen new whale accounts, that is large new Bitcoin whale events accounts starting to open up. Coin 2, Crypto Rover, you can see here some massive ones opening up recently, which is interesting. We've had money flow into emerging markets, chasing, of course, the commodities and the metals kind of runs. And you can see here emerging market high yield bonds are also getting a huge amount of flow into them. So what's this saying? It's saying again money is moving out of the dollar. And of course we have energy sector. I thought this is a great one from the market stats which basically goes along with everything we've been talking about for the last couple of months which is that the energy sector seems to be getting outperformance just recently because of course we believe it's underperformed. And actually the ratios here are starting to look really really weird. When you look at oil price and you look at gold and you look at silver and you look at some of the other precious metals, you really start to say, well, how is it possible that oil is so low still? And while we know that there are many geopolitical reasons why that is, the there is an undercurrent underbelly here of certain sectors. And we first called it out in oil services and now it could be coming into energy.
Now, this week, I got to say, guys, it's massive amounts of news, and I am glad to be back sharing it with you. Um, so, thanks very much for bearing with me there over the last couple of days. I was just traveling, but you can see here the S&P 500 returns during and after US government shutdowns. And, um, yeah, looks like we might be going into another shutdown as well. So, here's a great chart to study. We'll talk more about that when time comes. Uh, but we are in earnings. So, not only have we got Japanese bond yields starting to flash amber big time, we've got the potential for contagion. We've got silver showing us signs of usual impending volatility just around the corner. And therefore, we have to look at flow. Don't be terrified, but definitely look at flow. Look at the bags. Look at some of those key indicators we've been doing. But we do have earnings kicking off this week in the tech. So, we got Microsoft, Meta, Tesla Wednesday after the close, Apple after the close as well. Then we have of course all the volatility expected by the markets. You can see Meta might move plus - 7% according to the earnings watcher here and what we've been seeing in the options market. And basically if any of these positions lose certain ground level zones that's going to be quite detrimental to the market. Remember the index can't go up unless really semiconductors are going up and the magnificent 7 are going up. And at the moment, what's been happening is semiconductors doing amazingly, very well, as you'll see in a moment. But the Magnificent 7 have struggled a little bit.
So, another big thing is coming up soon, which is the end of January. And a lot of you guys might say, "What's a big deal about that?" Well, if the January event actually ends positive, that's usually a pretty good sign that the market will maybe be volatile for the year, but will generally end positive. So, Ryan Detrich here has the data, and we'll share that as we get the information.
Let's have a look now at cap versus equal weight. Which ranking tells the biggest story? Obviously, we can see here that really semiconductors have done the best which is our bell weather for effectively how healthy or how good is the US market still looking and at the moment that's been actually one of the best performing sectors as you can see here from duality research. We've also been following of course materials and energy and funnily enough again that's where the flow is. Look, Staples also there and even healthcare doing okay, when you compare it to some of the other sectors this year. One to keep an eye on will be financials as well because while software's been declining, if financials and homebuilders start to drop more, that is a concern for the economy. So again, these are just signs you stack together with the stuff that's going on Japan, the stuff that's going on to metals. And if we do start to see the bonds twitch in the US, we'll have to be talking about it.
Software versus S&P. I thought this was a really cool chart here from Duality Research. Obviously showing that software is significantly underperformed recently. Is that too much selling? Is it now time to start looking at software and saying maybe the AI, you know, is over over kind of uh hyped and stuff like that? I can tell you what. I can tell it from a mile away in some of the written articles. I say that much. But uh software versus S&P, you can clearly see here we've got a very very good uh support starting to appear. Another thing with the barometer as well of of January is that we got the toy barometer. So do remember while that can bring volatility over the first quarter generally speaking so far the data stats this year have actually been positive and they kind of lean into what we've already been thinking about which is this jurian timmer chart which is basically a very volatile market. So a great trader or positionbased market with some extreme movements up and down. So don't think that 2026 is going to be the same as every other year guys. I think it's going to be highly volatile.
Let's have a look underneath the hood. Advanced decline line here on the S&P is going up. That's a good sign. That's obviously breadth. That usually means that we've got higher highs to come at some point in the future. And you can see here the new options high and lows. And again, not much return since October since the Fed did their first cut. But this is why it is a stock trader and sectorbased market.
Let's now have a look at the options. What's going on the S&P? First up, obviously the S&P is trying to get towards that 7,000 call. No real news here. If you're looking at the major support on the market, 6,800 seems to be where most of the puts are, but I'd also be looking at things like Apple this week. You know, we saw Pelosi obviously sold her positions potentially a little bit higher. But, uh, we do have some kind of key levels there. We've got 245 250 on the puts. That is, you know, very interesting level. The MAGs as well. And Tesla of course recovering that 430 zone that we've talked about and remains 460 plus breakout of Tesla this week could create a massive gamma event. So of course that would be positive underneath 420 that's going to be kind of negative for the stock. Nvidia still holding the double bottom for now that we've been talking about. 190 seems to be where most of the calls are this week and gold gold absolutely skyrocketing. 5,000 anyone? Well just just don't worry about that. Went even higher. So that's obviously this idea of debasement, this idea that fiat is trash, cash is trash. That's probably the main narrative. I'm sure you guys have seen even more people talking about it. But I would say when everyone starts shorting the pair, we've got to be really paying attention to the flow because if it starts to like ramp off into the future and go up a lot, hey, you know, follow the flow. Don't follow the narrative too much. Make sure to keep an eye on things. And while I still think that the dollar is more weak than strong, it's not really my opinion that matters. It's whether we're seeing the flow and the movement there. Gold though, still very very bullish, but I think what happened with silver makes you pause. Uh because that was a huge unwind. And while it's it's going up now, oh, I don't know. It's getting dangerous. And you know, I love silver. I love silver. I love gold, but it's getting bloody dangerous now.
Let's have a look here at IBIT. Of course, Bitcoin not fairing very well. Kind of trades more like the mags, I guess. And you can see 50 is the key level to hold this week. So we've already taken some more volatility from the downside. That is around 86,000 for Bitcoin, but it's managed to hold that 48, which we know is also well struck. You can see it down here. And so far so good for Bitcoin barely holding on to its last level. If it loses this though, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes actually lower and goes into the 70s again. So watch out for Bitcoin. But for now, it's holding up just enough to get us through.
So, just before we jump into the charts and we take a look at all of the key levels that you need to be watching right now, I did want to say a big thank you to the sponsor of today's video, which is obviously Tiger Brokers. Now, as you guys know, we've been working with Tiger for some time, and they offer special offers in the pin comment and description down below for FX Evolution Community. But on top of winning several awards over the last couple of years for extra features, they've also got one that I think this earning season is always important to note, which is overnight trading and 24/5 on several,000 stocks and ETFs, which is very important when markets are moving as fast as what we just saw on silver and other things just recently. Guys, another new feature they've just added is of course margin lending and trading, which is very competitive in terms of rates, as you can see here, versus the others in the Australian market. And they also have it, of course, to be accessed and signed up through their app, which you can do, as you can see here on the screen. Now, it's important to note, guys, that with any margin feature, of course, there is an increase to exposure and an increase to risk. And I'd encourage you to also check out the T's and C's and everything to make sure that it's the right product for you. Thanks so much to Tiger and let's get back into those charts.
All right, let's now jump into the charts and have a look at the big one here, the silver monthly. Wow, that is a candle that I would not have thought and you know I'm a big silver bull. So, this is a huge one up to $100. I think some of the charts were saying $118 and then of course it got crushed some. Depends which one you're looking at, but I'll just show you here on SLV so you can get a bit of an idea here on the futures and that is just a monster. Now, is that unusual? Yes. Is has it happened before? Kind of. If you actually go back through history, you'll see that silver has done these epic runs before and then often it gets incredibly volatile at the top. In fact, if you go back over here to 2021, you'll notice that silver actually dropped around in a week it dropped around 22%. Gave it back. But when that kind of volatility enters the chat, you've got to be paying attention. Here's another one. Silver's well known to be manipulated like this. Went from around $49 back in 2011 and crashed 31%. Actually did recover quite a lot, but that was the end of that run. So, could it be the end of this run right now, guys? That's a monster. Look at this. This thing's going vertical. So, it is a huge rejection. And if you look at it on a daily, it actually looks like a giant shooting star. So certainly it's up 6% now. It's back to $110. But uh I would say unless you have a longerterm approach, there's probably somebody with an invisible hand there doing some big trades. So u yeah, that's that's the type of thing that I usually pay a lot of attention to when you see this type of thing. Not didn't not expect it to rally. Of course you do, but because there's so much pent-up demand, but this is where often things will sit for a little while. Kind of like what we saw last year.
Now let's have a look at gold. $5,066. I think gold's sitting a little bit better than silver because it's kind of the go-to for debasement, the go-to for political instability, the go-to for geopolitical wars and all these types of things. So, it's kind of looking better there. It's also looking, I think, better when you consider what's going on with Japanese yields, man, the spread spike there and obviously the end of an era for them. Uh, and it's also sitting okay when you're considering, you know, probably what's going on with oil and the fact that oil may actually break out relatively soon. Now, why do I say that? Well, it's so cheap ratio-wise, and it's not a solicitation to buy, sell, do anything with it, guys. But basically, it is pretty cheap ratio-wise, and we'll bring that up in our next video, so make sure to sub for it. But US oil, you can see here that $61, the potential here is that we're breaking to the upside. And even the weekly did okay. Uh so it's kind of showing that there's some buyer here on the energy stocks and or energy sector. And we've also seen energy stocks here as well break to new all-time highs. So it's kind of showing that there's some flow, some momentum coming into arguably the most hated commodity of the last kind of I guess you would say year or so.
Some other things to note uh IGV here software kind of stocks to the spy significant underperformance here since really AI has taken over interesting level as we saw depending on the code that you're using you may even look like a massive base structure so definitely watch these softwares coming in and through these earnings reports and Tesla Tesla Tesla Tesla it's all about 460 or 420 460 420 460 420 which one will it be put your comments down below. on that one. I think it could be. I don't know. I'm always I'm going to be optimistic. Why can't we have 460 in the future? Why can't we do that? And we'll see whether it can happen. Nvidia, let's see this one. Double bottom base. Obviously picked up, pulled back, rallied a bit. Still sitting ahead of some more earnings this week. And Apple has found the buyer at the first buy area, which we suspected it would. For Apple to really break out strongly though, we're probably going to need 262. and we're going to need to see Magnificent 7 above 6680ish uh to break new highs. You can see here, yes, the Magnificent 7 is holding on coming into earnings this week. And that's that's showing up actually in Meta, which we can see here. Meta's improving. Uh we've got Microsoft coming up as well. So many key points. See all these turn points, these 493s on Microsoft and stuff. So if that happens, good. If this actually fails though and we see Magnificent 7 and Apple stock fall underneath 245, then it's going to get pretty brutal pretty quickly. So, just remember tech has not been the best place to be in over the last 3 4 months. It's actually been materials, I guess, semiconductor tech. Yes. Um energy, other sectors. So, think outside the box, guys. It's something we like to do here on the channel.
Chinese stocks also still looking good. Obviously, we've seen heaps and heaps of world markets, emerging markets in particular, starting to really fire up over the last couple of weeks. But Chinese stocks still looking like they're gaining liquidity. And then there comes Bitcoin, which is at this point struggling quite a lot. So, you can see here it's a lower high kind of coming through at the moment. It's kind of in a downward trend. It did wipe out those 86,000 positions, which I suspected could be attacked. They were attacked, but yeah, needs a 91 otherwise it's looking rad because if you look at that on a chart and you show that to anyone, they're not exactly going to love it. I did like the break of 94. We'll see whether it can hold here, but it kind of has to. So, yeah, fingers crossed for everyone on Bitcoin because this is a very important time for that stock.
Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, then please remember to subscribe and smash that like button. We still do have more news coming. We've obviously got the big one here in terms of what's going on in the US with interest rates uh later on this week. Uh then we also have of course what is happening as well with uh Fed announcement and then we do have earnings as well. So we'll be covering all of those things. If you enjoyed today's video, sub, smash the alert button down below. And also if you're interested in Tiger Brokers and big thank you for them sponsoring today's video, then you can also check out the special offers in the links and the pinned comment down below. It's great to be back. Thank you so much for bearing with me there on the weekends and I'm looking forward to bringing you some high quality content this week, guys. Oh, things are just getting started. But I'm telling you what, that was a mega move on silver. You guys have witnessed history once again, and that just seems to be kind of an everyday occurrence right now. Catch you for now. Have a great day. Take us.