Transcription
The market is officially down 4% from all-time highs. And I'm going to talk about where this market may be headed going into this Friday's Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. I'm also going to talk about five stocks that I'm trading in the portfolio, including Palunteer because that seems to be the biggest news of the day. And I'm going to talk about where that stock may be headed. But let's go ahead and jump into it.
Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. If we take a look at the portfolio, nice little dip today, right? We were at one, you know, we were about 1.19, now we're at 1.17. If you'd like to see me on my 8 figure goal in this portfolio and follow along that journey, make sure to be subscribed by clicking the subscribe button down below. And also, if you get any value out of this video, please click the thumbs up button as I highly appreciate that.
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Now, let's go ahead and jump into it. Okay, Palanteer stock plummets 20% from all-time highs. Is it over for Palanteer? We've been talking about this stock. So many experts out there are saying Palanteer is overvalued. It's been overvalued. This is the end, right? Yet Palanteer just signed a new partnership with Fujitsu on um integrating their AIP platform as well as expans global expansion um in 2025. So, you know, Palanteer is having quite quite a rough time right now, but they're also securing more partnerships. So, we're going to talk about where this stock may be headed. I'll give you my price projections there, but let's talk about it.
Okay, first we're going to look at the CME Fed Watch tool, which shows us the potential of rate cut odds. Nothing has changed fundamentally. There's still 82% 82.9% odds of a rate cut coming in September. Now, I think what is happening right now is the market is pricing in Jerome Powell as being neutral on Friday. So, a little bit more of disappointing news. He's probably going to say more of the same, like, hey, we're going to wait for more data to come in for inflation to be closer to that 2% target for us to cut rates. Okay. So, I feel like that's what the market's pricing in right now. I'm going to show you kind of what I think on QQQ, the upside and downside surprises. um if he says hey no rate no rate cuts for the rest of the year or if he says yeah absolutely we're doing a rate cut in September I'll show you kind of the upside and downside targets but either way if we look at this pullback and then we look at Jerome Pal and he's out in May right he is done in May so either way if there is no rate cuts coming this year worst worst case scenario we're just going to have more aggressive rate cuts coming in the future as you can see we're pricing in half a basis point rate cut in December, in March, and also in next June. So, um, pretty aggressive rate cuts there, not just being a quarter basis point, but being a half basis point. So, that shows me confidence that this market is headed higher in the long term.
So, what we're looking at right now, we see QQQ kind of bounced off this 559 area in the morning. Now the lower Ballinger band, this is something good to look at because the Ballinger bands what I have right here and mind you this is the daily time frame. So every candlestick here is one day. If you want to give yourself kind of probabilities you could say hey the lower Ballinger band is basically a point where if the stock breaks below there's only a 5% chance of that happening. So 95% of the time QQQ will stay in between the lower and upper Ballinger band. So there still is a chance that we might break below this lower ballinger band and I see the next target kind of being the 550 area also worst case the 545 area on the downside. All right. So I do see that and that would be on a surprise saying hey Jerome Powell on Friday surprises the market and says we're not getting rate cuts for the rest of the year. At that point I do see us heading back down um for a nice bounce to this 546 area. I think that, you know, that's going to be priced in. Once that happens, it's priced in and the market looks forward and says, "Hey, well, Jerome Pal's out in May, so let's just go ahead and continue with what we're doing." And I think that's kind of what happened right here, right? The market kind of priced in the tariffs and then we put a pause and then the market was back and then you the market basically said, "Hey, tariffs are already priced in. Let's go higher." Okay, so that's worst case scenario. I think 545 which would put the market um which would put QQQ down from all-time highs about you know 6 and a half%. That's a typical pullback 6 to 7%. 10% is a typical nice little correction. I don't think the odds of us having that um is very likely. Could it happen? Sure. Maybe a 1% chance. But that's not what I'm playing for. Um, I'm really playing for the upside here because I do believe the market has just priced in a disappointment with Jerome Pal saying, "Hey, he's going to be neutral." So, you know, we bounce off this area and potentially um, you know, we go back to all-time highs. That may take a couple weeks, but that may happen. Now, if Jerome Pal says for sure we're getting a rate cut in September, I do think we gap up back to all-time highs and then potentially we go back up to like this 590 595 area. Okay, so that's maybe a 10 20% chance of that happening. I think this is most likely this scenario and I think the bottom is it. Okay, but again could be different. We could hit this 545 area. So that's something to just keep an eye on if there is a surprise in the markets.
Okay. So, how do you kind of be safe in those scenarios? Well, you make sure to keep some cash on the sidelines. Now, another thing on why I'm I have pretty high conviction that the market is going to head higher after this nice little pullback is the VIX. Okay, the fear and volatility index. The fear and volatility index on a typical 3 to 4% pullback in the NASDAQ, you usually see this thing get up to 18 to 20. Okay? So you'll see this thing kind of pop up to 18 to 20 kind of like it did back here on August 1st, but it didn't do that. It's actually still pretty low in the 15 area. So there is just slight amounts of fear, but there's really no fear going into this. So that's just telling me what's happening is there's sector rotation. You'll see stocks that are up like Birkshshire Hathway, McDonald's, Loheed Martin, the safe haven stocks are getting a little bit of rotation going into Friday's meeting. And then I believe, you know, once the Fed is out of the way, Jerome Pow's out of the way, those people will kind of rotate back into tech and buy the dip. Okay. So, a little bit of uh readjustment here, but not like a fear-based selloff. Okay.
Um, but let's go ahead and go to the VIX cash allocation levels to talk about it. So, ideally, you'll want to be somewhere, you know, I want to be somewhere around 60 to 80% allocated, maybe 20 to 40% cash on the sidelines to be super safe. Now, am I super safe right now? No. I'm definitely not following my principles. I'm way too aggressive. I actually only have 5% cash, okay? Because I am playing the upside here. Now, I understand my risk and that's for you to decide for yourself, but for me, I'm fine if we do pull back that, hey, I'm not going to have much cash left. I only have 5% um at these levels, okay? Because I'm playing for a bullish uh bounce here, and that's kind of what I expect. All right.
Now let's go ahead and talk about the first stock which is Palunteer. Palanteer took a huge nose dive today and quite a strong recovery on the day. In fact going into the close only down 1% today. Okay. Uh this thing was down at one point today like 6 and a half%. So from all-time highs currently we stand at 18% down. I look at this as a wonderful dip buying opportunity. Every time based off data Palunteer has broken the lower Ballinger band, it has rallied back up to new all-time highs. Okay? And I'll draw out those situations here. The last time this happened was during the tariff crash. The previous time was right here. I remember that. That was a 25% dip and then it rallied and then gapped up to new all-time highs. Okay? Okay. And then a previous time was actually back here in November of 2024. And then a previous time was August of last year when we had the Japanese yen carry trade crash. So really this only happens once every few months. Okay.
So how I looked at this opportunity was I said, "Hey, they had wonderful earnings. Net cash flows were bigger than ever, right? And they are expanding globally and they haven't even really tapped out as far as reaching the commercial market. So, uh, we see this huge candle, uh, volume stick right here, green. So, people were buying the dip today. Um, we almost got to these, you know, oversold levels on the RSI. We're bearish on the MACD, but we could be headed towards a bullish crossover once the market kind of recovers. So, that's how I'm playing it. I love Palance here longterm. Yes, it's a it's definitely overvalued as car as far as traditional fundamentals, but we've seen the PE much higher. We're at 518 PE. We've seen this thing um in the 700s. Okay.
So, what did I do today with my position? Let's go ahead and look at the portfolio. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. But if we take a look at the portfolio, okay, I upped the position. All right, I sold more cash secured puts at the 152 expiring in 9 days to collect about 668. And then I bought four LEAPS. All right, so I bought four LEAPS call options. I have a sell order in place when I'm up 10%. All right, so I like to take quick profits on the LEAPS if I get them. All right, so I put a sell order. If I'm up 10%, I'm going to exit, but you know, we're down about 7% on these. I was willing to be down 50% on these, but so good entry. Not not the best entry for those considering that I grabbed those here when Palunteer yesterday was at 161. So definitely missed this bottom, but you can't time these things. That's why I went so far out in time. So what I did was I went to the January 15th, 2027 and I picked up the 70 delta 145 call options. All right, and you know, paid quite a bit for those. I bought six of them and I'll just kind of wait for this rally to rebound um and take profits there. But cash secured put-wise, you know, the whole position right now is um 131K. So, I'm pretty aggressive here on Palunteer. Lovely premiums, and I'm fine getting assigned on all these puts, but that's probably not going to happen. Okay, so that's what I did there. Long-term bullish on Palunteer. I still think they're in the, you know, first or second innings of the business, and they haven't matured yet. So, um, you know, if you're a contrarian investor, this is a wonderful opportunity that you don't get very often.
All right. So tomorrow if I had to establish a new position, you know, with some extra cash, I'd probably go out September 19th, 30 days just to play it safe. And I would go to the, you know, 35 36 delta. I'd go to the 150 strike, be pretty aggressive, and that would, you know, potentially get yield me a 4.84% ROI. results vary based off of where the stock opens tomorrow, but you know, collecting 690 for the 150 strike price put, that seems like a fair um a fair return for me, okay, in my risk profile. So, I like that strike. And uh yeah, that's that's basically what I would do to take advantage of this dip on Palunteer. They're sec they always do this every time when the market's crashing, Palanteer's crashing, they're just securing new partnerships in the background and and it ends up being a good dip by opportunity. So that's Palanteer.
All right, let's talk about Nvidia. Nvidia saw a wonderful dip buying opportunity here. Broke the lower Ballinger band. Okay, we haven't seen this since again the tariff crash and then back here in this chop area. All right, so we broke the lower ballinger band. PE is at 56. What I did was I said, "Hey, I'm not going to buy LEAPS. I want to, you know, make sure that I'm getting premiums." So, I went into the portfolio. Let's go there. We'll go to the Nvidia position. And I'm definitely a little overallocated here. 168K. So, this is the largest it's ever been. Um, and I went ahead and I sold the 164 puts, right, to collect 1,200. Now, what I would do tomorrow with new cash is I would go out 30 days and I would go to the again, I would get more aggressive. I'd probably go to the 166 area, which is the 30 delta to collect 3%. Right? And I'd go ahead and sell those. Um 3% ROI. Obviously, results vary based off where the stock price is at, but that seems like a pretty um decent place, decent entry for Nvidia there because I think long-term this thing is headed to 200 potentially. Um, and that's kind of what I'm playing it for. So, Nvidia again, nothing fundamentally changed with the company. In fact, with all the good earnings that just came out from all the top tech companies, FA Meta, Amazon, right, they all said they're spending more on AI chips. So, Nvidia is the key beneficiary to that play. Nvidia, good point right here.
Okay, now let's talk about SoFi. SoFi was another one I played today. Didn't quite make it to this lower Ballinger band, but still a significant pullback from um yesterday, right? About a 14% pullback in one day. So what I did was I said, "Hey, I'm going to get aggressive here as well for some more premiums. And now the position is 163K." So I've really upped all of these positions kind of past my usual 10 to 12% mark. All right, I'm kind of like nearing that 15% on um all of these because I'm so bullish on them. So what did I do? I basically opened up um I went out to September 19th and I opened up the 21 a.5 puts to collect 1K. Uh so what I would do tomorrow, September 30th, again, I would go to these same strike 21 a 12 to collect almost a dollar, which is a 4.85% ROI. Results vary based off of where the stock opens up tomorrow, but that seems like a good play to me. Okay, 21 12 would put me not too far from where the stock's trading at now. It would put me right here and it breached that today. But, you know, is from all-time highs, right, from these all-time highs here. That's a almost a 15% discount on the stock. So, for me, I said, "Hey, my thesis is SoFi's going to 30, right? So is going up here long term. So, why wouldn't I just go more aggressive and potentially get assigned for a longerterm hold and just sell covered calls to collect some premium, right? So, SoFi, another great entry. Not even didn't really even get affected by this um by this little pullback here because I don't think that it's overbought at these levels. I mean, it's been trading in this range between 20 and 22 for quite a while now, for a couple months now. So, it's built a nice base here. And what a wonderful entry. Okay, so that's um SoFi.
Now, let's talk about Robin Hood. Robin Hood again, one of the stronger stocks today, down 2%. Um it did touch the lower Ballinger band at $99. What wonderful entry. Some of my clients got in leaps call options way down here. I woke up too late, so I I didn't get to grab that entry, but I did get some leaps call options. So um again longterm my thesis is this thing is going to uh this year probably 1251 130 somewhere up here. So I just want to get in for some appreciation some premiums and uh I grabbed some leaps. All right so what I did here is I said hey we touched the lower ballinger band it bounced off there's buyers at that level so let's go ahead and get more aggressive here. So, what I did was, let's go to the account. Um, current position size 155K cash secured puts, but we also have 15K in leaps call options that I bought that I'm down about half a percent on. Okay, so I'm almost in profit on these. I'm not going to I'm going to hold these for longer, okay? I'm not just going to exit at 10% unless I get it tomorrow. If I get 10% tomorrow, I'll exit. But, um, what I did was, let's go to the portfolio. I went I opened up two September 19th 95 put options to collect uh 1K. All right. Um, so again, tomorrow if I had to put on a new position, I'd probably go out September 19th and I would go pretty aggressive. I wouldn't go to the 95 strike anymore because that's, you know, I'm already up on those. I'd probably go to the 99 strike. Collect a 5% ROI. results vary based off where the stock opens tomorrow, but that seems like a a fairly decent return for me. It definitely hits my goals. Okay, so I'd go to that 99 strike and that would put you right at this lower Ballinger band where it touched bounced because there's buyers there and now it's back up above 100. Okay, so that would be the play for tomorrow. So, Robin Hood, another very strong stock, good fundamentals, and again, when the market rebounds and recovers, which again could be tomorrow, could be in two months, doesn't doesn't really matter long term. Um, I believe we're headed higher.
Okay, let's talk about HIMS. Hims was actually the only stock in the portfolio, one of the only actually. American Express and HIMS were the only stocks that were up today in the portfolio. So very good to see him bounce off that 41 level that we drew out right here. Okay, it it bounced right off that level, previous support. Okay, and that showed me that there's buyers stepping in. Volume candle right here was bigger. There were some buyers stepping in today and this could be the turnaround moment for him. All right. So, in my portfolio, I have the 50 put options, 90 grand worth of 50 put options, which will most likely get assigned in 9 days. If not, wow, how crazy this stock moves. But, um, you know, if I had to open up a new position tomorrow, which I might actually because I have a little bit of cash here, you know, I'd go 30 days out. And just to play it safe, you know, I'd probably go to the let's just say the 30 39 or 38 strike. So 23 to 27 delta at the 39 strike. That's a 4.6% ROI. Results vary based off where the stock is or 3.85% ROI at the 38 strike. So either one looks good. If I wanted to be safer, I'd probably go 38 to pick up 130. But that seems like a good um cash secured put option there. and 38 would put me yeah 38 would put me a little bit lower than one of the stocks now that'd be around right here and if we look at how far that is from current prices that's another 11% down and from all-time highs or previous highs you know 46% okay so again it looks like it's basing out here and I think that HIMS will probably trade sideways and then might see a nice jolt up on some good news they just hired a new chief people off officer. So, you know, there could be some good news coming out for HIMS and that's why HIMS long-term, I love it in the portfolio.
So, if you enjoyed this update, please give it a thumbs up. Stay strong. Small pullback, wonderful dip buying opportunity, and I look forward to working with you. I'll see you in the next video. Take care.