Transcription
Was [Music] the China Russian India meeting in Tanchin a geopolitical shift or not? This is the question. This is about this edition about China and the Pacific problems. My guest is Georg Yao, former minister of foreign affairs of Singapore. Thank you, sir, for coming to this broadcast. Thank you very much for being here.
And and my first question would be uh probably you follow the events in C SEO meeting in TN in China. Uh we saw four important leaders standing together China, Russia, India and North Korea. What was your first thought when you saw the pictures that these all powers came together? Because many experts says it was a beginning of a new friendship if I can quote a Casabalanca film. Uh that this is an anti-western alliance, the beginning of a new world. Did you think that or not?
>> The SEO has a long history. It played a critical role in maintaining the peace in inner Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. So many things could have done wrong but because of um good diplomacy by Russia by China and by Kazakhstan under President Nazabay there was no revolution there was no civil war and that has maintained the peace in the vast region of Eurasia. uh since the end of the Soviet Union and that's very important. Since then the SEO has grown in membership uh I don't think North Korea is part of it. So in tenzing we had Modi, we have Singping and we have Putin and they were holding hands and having light conversations smiling to one another that was played and replayed all over the world including in India and in the west.
The most important um signal is that China and India are normalizing their relations. Uh the Americans were hoping and to some extent the Europeans too that India could be could join them against China. But this did not happen because India has its own core position. For example, when the Ukraine war started, America wanted India to support Ukraine. But India has a long relationship with Russia and would not disavow the Russians. Then later on earlier this year, the Indians and the Pakistanis had a small air war and India wanted the Americans to support them against Pakistan. But the Americans wouldn't do it either. In fact, Trump invited the head of the Pakistani army to the White House for lunch and he agreed to nominate Trump for the Nobel Prize. It's an adult relationship. Each has his own interest to look after.
But it's a very strong bond even even all these facts that you mentioned between America and India. But we know parallel India has a traditional relationship with Russia buying oil and gas from Russia. Even if there is a war in Ukraine and that's the problem of US and actually what we saw the Mr. Trump put a serious uh tariff on India a little bit punishing India for buying Russian oil but still India keep keeps on going doing the same habit and this action in in India was do you think it's a open defiance of India showing the Americans that okay if you don't like us kind of we have normalizing the connections with China or archival is it a message
>> well I don't think you can bully India, India is too big, India is too proud to be bullied by Trump like that. Uh and India has also come to the conclusion that is in its own interest regardless of Trump to normalize his relations with China and the Chinese have always wanted that and the process has begun. This represents the crystallization the continuing crystallization of a multipolar wall.
>> Yeah. And uh India had a ne neutral position recently. That was a traditional position of India to be neutral to this kind of strategic autonomy right that to to get everybody on the table and trading with everybody so India can be in the middle of the hub. Yeah. But does it does it my first question to the viewers was in the beginning of this conversation. Do you consider this appearance of the Indian prime minister in Tianing a a geopolitical turning point or not?
>> Um it's not that dramatic is a culmination of many months of diplomatic effort. The two of them had already met in Kazan at an earlier meeting and this time around Modi went back to China after seven years. So a lot of attention was paid to that visit and the Chinese of course extended hospitality to him and that was reported positively all over India. I see North Korea was a force and as I understand you you don't consider uh North Korea is a part of this alliance forming alliance. Of course it's not a big power in even in in the Pacific but it's very dangerous. It's a threat for to maybe to Singapore but definitely to the neighboring countries like like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan. I can continue Philippines. Um what's the point to invite the North Koreans to in this company? What was the message of China? Because China did that. Was it the message that we can form a brighter anti-western coalition including the the threat of the North Koreans inside?
China doesn't consider North Korea to be a threat and after the second world war uh during the Korean war China was completely on the side of North Korea and with Chinese volunteers they were able to drive the American le UN forces back to the south to in the end after prolonged negotiations they have a ceasefire which continues till today a ceasefire without a peace agreement When China opened up, it began to develop good relations with South Korea. But China always gave a higher protocol standing to North Korea. The the ambassador to North Korea has the status of a vice minister. Ambassador South a lower status. This is a this is reason I asked that why why does China lift North Korean leader up to this pre prestige company of the Russian president and the Indian prime minister? Why did they do this?
>> So China and North Korea always enjoyed the good relations and China have always extended the highest courtesy to North Korean leaders uh with Putin. It was interesting because North Korea sent a contingent to help Russia in Kosk and they died there. They they sacrificed lives out of friendship with Russia. They have a a treaty where they will help each other. So this was on September the 3 uh the 80th anniversary of the end of the anti-fascist anti-Japanese war. And uh China organized a very big parade and Putin came. So did Kim Jong-un came from North Korea and he came by train and one step away there was Toka from Kazakhstan and Prau from Indonesia because when Sitinping announced the belt and road initiative in 2013 he did it first in Kazakhstan and then in Indonesia. These two countries are very important countries for the belt and road. So it was a a public display of China's strategic worldview of friendship with Russia, friendship with North Korea and friendship with Kazakhstan and Indonesia.
Siberia 2, I continue your thought. Uh Siberia 2 gas pipeline will be built between Russia and China and uh that was agreed in tening too. So it's very interesting that China is opening up its position about the Ukrainian war. If if if openly buys and builds a gas pipeline and buying uh energy from Russia, it means that China is not anymore neutral se of the conflict from outside but it's a participant buying strategically buying Russian energy means financing the war machinery of Moscow. Do you agree with this notion or not?
Now China triangulates very carefully on Ukraine. China has listed out its principles. The first principle is territorial integrity. So in that principle is a criticism of Russia. But the second principle is that security is indivisible. You can't because of your desire for security infringe upon mine. That is a criticism of NATO's eastward expansion. between Russia and China. They have a strategic friendship partly because both come under pressure from the west. The Chinese fear is that the west will work with Russia against China. But this will not happen. So on the Ukraine war, China is very careful to have economic relations with Russia not to be involved in military exports and highly control on dual use and he keeps his relationship with Europe and with Ukraine. So China's position is not unlike India's position. They triangulate it very carefully and not take sides too fully. But strategically, China does not want Russia to fall because if Russia were defeated, then China would face the full pressure. So he has a strategic interest in keeping Russia going economically knowing full well that Russia is able to look after its own military needs.
>> Yeah. that the the most important objective of reaching a goal, strategic goal, military, political, economic goal of China is definitely in a Pacific. Uh should the Pacific states including your country Singapore be afraid of China these years or not?
Over many centuries, the smartest people in China, there's great strategic think strategic thinkers. Their worry is about security from the north, from the west and from the sea, never from the south. So Southeast Asia has an old relationship with China. The countries of Southeast Asia, they always pay tribute to China, uh, show respect, but China never really uh invaded Southeast Asia. A few wars on the border, but nothing too serious. And today Southeast Asia has a very good relationship with China. China is our biggest trade partner for all 10 of us. No one wants China as an enemy. When Americans put pressure on us to choose, no one wants to choose against China. And I tell my American friends, don't push too hard because the response may not be what you like.
>> Yeah. So the Asan countries are different than Japan or South Korea or even Taiwan, right? So there's a different South region which economically and by trade has a good relationship with China. But what if if China wants to push the influence of its uh political agenda maybe to the south too? What would you do that?
>> We've seen China in all its earlier incarnations. China is a predictable power. It's not an unpredictable power. The current conflict with Southeast Asia is over maritime claims in the South China Sea because they're overlapping claims and things have come down but recently with the Philippines there's been problem. The Americans support the Philippines which give the Philippines more courage to take on the Chinese. I think it's unwise. I think it's best to settle these things by negotiation, but they're complicated and those of us who are not really involved should not get too involved.
But but would would a Taiwan war if hypothetically asking this if China in 10 years time decides that forcibly by military decides the question of Taiwan attacking the island? >> Would would this change of status quo change your position a Singapore position towards China that China is predictable power? Would would it change that notion
>> on Taiwan? China would go to war if it's necessary and the reason is because of historical justice. Taiwan was taken from China by Japan in 1894 when they defeated the Chinese navy. China felt that this was coercion and towards the end of the second world war when the leaders met in Cairo at the end of 1943 uh Roosevelt was there towards Churchill and uh General Shanka and it was agreed in Cairo that after the war Taiwan would be returned to China and in Pam before the end of the war it was agreed that what was agreed in in Cairo should be affirmed because China's claim to Taiwan is is not illegal doubt is one China uh established by international agreement. Kissinger said repeatedly that when he negotiated with Tai and they kept on coming back to Taiwan, kept on coming back and in the end to get China on board against the Soviet Union. America recognized Beijing as a sole legal government of one China. So this is not in doubt that Taiwan belongs to China. The question is, even though China has the right to unify by force, does it want to? And I don't think it needs to because militarily the US cannot prevent it from happening. If they tried, DSMC will be destroyed. If CSMC is destroyed, America and Europe will be without important chips. China has alternatives. So the US cannot provoke a war on Taiwan and China does not want a war in Taiwan unless it's provoked by the US. So I'm not worried about uh war over Taiwan for the for the for the next 5 years
>> if Tai if the Taiwanese government doesn't declare independency of course because that's the other situation of course and
>> no Taiwanese government can declare independence without American support.
>> I see. No American support, no independence. It's easy situation. Okay. Uh one one two last questions. One of them is already answered because you you told about the Assan is not a balancing power of 10 countries against China, right? It's just a trading partner of China. Would this organization of yours u become a more political association or it will stay like a more like a trade union? Aan is is different from this European Union.
>> Yeah.
>> You know, we never vote in ASEAN. In the European Union, on everything they vote, including the menu, but in in AAN, we never vote. We just discuss, look after one another's needs. If we can't agree, we postpone it. We establish an experts group. We get the officials to study it further. And we always work on consensus. It is a very Asian way of saving face of overcoming difficulties. But the direction is clear that ASEAN should become more united that we should not take sides that we should be friendly to China, to Japan, to America, to Europe, to India, to every to anybody. But if anyone pushes too hard, then we will lean in the other direction. So don't push us too hard. It's not in your interest. This is the AAN way. And because of that, Azan is a platform which is a very good convening platform. We still have an Asan regional forum where North and South Korea, Japan, Russia and the US sit around the table to talk. You may disagree one another, but here in Assean, we have to be polite to one another and we talk to one another with respect. This is very powerful. When Trump met Kim Jong-un for the first time, it was in Singapore. The second time it was in Hanoi. This is a special position and place.
>> And when China talks to Taiwan, the first time in 92 it was in Singapore. The second time in 2015 between Cing Ping and Mayu again he was in Singapore. I see
>> this is how useful we are to others.
>> Small country but influential right? Your country is
>> by serving others.
>> Yeah.
>> Not by dominating them.
>> Yeah. Thank you very much. And my last question is about uh we we started with the Shankai security organization meeting and I I I'm just ending a conversation with that. Do you think that the CC SCO can be an organization which can energize a new eastern block including maybe the BRICS countries the global south and that would be the leading force to be a multipolar world creating that new reality do you think that
>> oh very much so the SEO uh rep the leaders represent uh a part of the world which has a majority of the world's population and growing very fast. So in 10 years time the SEO economies will be big economies. Bricks will be even bigger. The idea is not to be anti-western. The idea is to keep the west honest that you cannot use the G7 or other international institutions to bully non-western countries. It cannot be that in the G7 or the IMF you make decisions and you impose it on everybody because now we have alternatives whether it is uh clearing foreign exchange uh trade energy security and so on. For example, both Iran and North Korea, North Korea, I don't think it's part of the SEO or breaks, but both are now connected to China and to Russia and the western blockade of them no can no longer succeed. So this has huge implication.
>> So thank you very much for giving us a Asian point of view. It was very interesting and it was a pleasure to meet you. Thank you very much.
>> Thank you. And dear viewers, thank you for the attention. We see each other next week. Bye-bye for this. Bye-bye. [Music]