Transcription
To fully understand the consequences of the Ukraine war, it's essential to consider its causes. Because the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 says a great deal about Russia's war aims and the longterm effects of the war.
The conventional wisdom in the west, as all of you know, is that Vladimir Putin is responsible for causing the Ukraine war. His aim, so the argument goes, is to conquer all of Ukraine and make it part of a greater Russia. Once that goal is achieved, Russia will move to create an empire in Eastern Europe, much like the Soviet Union did after World War II. In this story, Putin is a mortal threat to the West and must be dealt with forcefully. In short, Putin is an imperialist with a master plan that fits neatly into a rich Russian tradition.
There are numerous problems with this story. Let me spell out five of them.
First, there's no evidence from before 204 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer all of Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia. Again, I want to emphasize there is no evidence to support the conventional wisdom. Proponents of this wisdom cannot point to anything that Putin wrote or said that indicates he thought conquering Ukraine was a desirable goal, that was a feasible goal, and that he intended to pursue that goal. I want to repeat this. Putin never said that conquering Ukraine was a desirable goal. There's no evidence to support that. There's no evidence that he said he thought it was a feasible goal. And there's no evidence that he said, this is all before February 24th, 2022, that he intended to pursue that goal.
When challenged on this point, and as you can imagine, I've had many discussions with people who defend the conventional wisdom. uh they point to Putin's claim uh that Ukraine was quote unquote an artificial state and especially to his view that Russians and Ukrainians are one people which of course is a core theme in his famous July 12th 2021 article that people often reference these comments saying that Ukraine is an art artificial state we're saying that the Ukrainians and Russians are one people say nothing about his reason for going to war. In fact, if you read the July 12th, 2021 article that he wrote, which I've read many times, there is zero evidence in there that he was bent on conquering Ukraine. And in fact, he said exactly the opposite in that piece. For example, he tells the Ukrainian people, and I'm quoting from that July 12th, 2021 article, you want to establish a state of your own, you are welcome. Regarding how Russia should treat Ukraine, he writes, there is only one answer with respect. There's only one answer with respect. He concludes that lengthy article with the following words. and what Ukraine will be. It is up to its citizens to decide. That does not sound like somebody who's bent on conquering Ukraine.
In that same 12 July 2021 article and again in important in an important speech on February 21st, 2022, this is three days before the Russians invaded Ukraine. He wrote, "The new Russia accepts the new geopolitical reality that took shape after the disillusion of the USSR." He reiterated that same point three days later on 24 February 22 when he announced that Russia would invade Ukraine. All of these statements are directly at odds with the claim that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into a greater Russia.
Second, Putin did not have anywhere near enough troops to conquer Ukraine. I estimate that Russia invaded Ukraine with at most 190,000 troops. General Sirki, who as you all know is now the present commander of the Ukrainian forces, estimates that the Russians invaded Ukraine with a 100,000 troops. So John estimates that they invaded with 190,000. Sirki estimates that they invaded with a 100,000. There is no way that a force numbering either a 100,000 or 190,000 could conquer, occupy, and absorb all of Ukraine into a greater Russia. Consider that when Germany invaded the western half of Poland on September 1st, 1939 and you remember as a result of the von Ribbentrop Molotov pact, the Soviet Union invaded the eastern part of Poland and the Germans invaded the western part. So the Germans only invaded half of Poland. The Vermacht on September 1st, 1939 sent 1.5 million troops into Poland. Ukraine is geographically more than three times larger than the western half of Poland. And Ukraine in 2022 had almost twice as many people as Poland did when the Germans invaded. If we accept Searsk's estimate that a 100,000 Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and again this is General Sirki speaking, that means Russia had an invasion force that was 115th the size of the German force that went into Poland. And that small Russian army was invading a country that was much larger than the western half of Poland in terms of both territorial size and population.
One might argue, and of course you often hear this argument, that Russian leaders thought that the Ukrainian military was so small and so outgunned that their army could easily conquer the entire country. But this is not the case. In fact, Putin and his lieutenants were well aware that the United States and its European allies had been arming and training the Ukrainian military since the crisis first broke out in 2014. Indeed, Moscow's great fear at the time was that Ukraine was becoming a de facto member of NATO. Moreover, Russian leaders recognized that the Ukrainian army which was larger than the invasion force. I want to emphasize this. The Ukrainian army was larger than the Russian invasion force. It was armed and trained by NATO and it was becoming a de facto member of NATO. They recognized that that force had been fighting effectively in the Donbass since 2014. They surely understood the Russians that is that the Ukrainian military was not a paper tiger that could be defeated quickly and decisively, especially since it had powerful backing from the West. And you remember before the war, the West, especially the United States, made it clear that we would back Ukraine to the hilt if it was invaded by Russia. Putin's aim was to quickly achieve limited territorial gains and force Ukraine to the bargaining table, which is what happened.
And this brings me to my third point. Immediately after the war began, Russia, not Ukraine, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vendi between the two countries. This move is directly at odds with the claim that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and make it part of greater Russia. Negotiations between Keev and Moscow began in Bellarus just 4 days 4 days after the Russian invasion. And that Bellarus track was eventually replaced by an Israeli as well as an Istanbul track. The available evidence indicates that the Russians were negotiating seriously and were not interested in absorbing Ukrainian territory save save for Crimea which they had enexed in 2014 and possibly the Donbass region. The negotiations ended when the Ukrainians with proddding from Britain and the United States walked away from the negotiations which were making good progress at the time. The Russians did not walk away from the negotiations.
Fourth, in the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis. On 17 October 2021, remember the war begins February 2022. This is 17 December 2021. Putin sends letters to both President Biden and to NATO chief Yen Stolenberg proposing a solution to the crisis based on a written guarantee that does three things. Says number one, Ukraine would not join NATO. Number two, no offensive weapons would be stationed near Russia's borders. And number three, NATO troops and equipment moved into Eastern Europe since 1997 would be moved back to Western Europe. Whatever one thinks of the feasibility of reaching a bargain based on Putin's opening demands, it shows he was trying to avoid war. The United States, on the other hand, refused to negotiate with Putin. It appears it was not interested in avoiding war.
Fifth, this is my fifth and final point. Putting Ukraine aside, there is not a cintillaa of evidence that Putin was contemplating conquering any other countries in Eastern Europe. And this is hardly surprising given that the Russian army is not even large enough to overrun all of Ukraine, much less to conquer the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. Plus, those countries outside of Ukraine are all NATO members, which would almost certainly mean war with the United States and its allies.
In some while it is widely believed in Europe and again I'm sure here in the European Parliament that Putin is an imperialist who has long been determined to conquer all of Ukraine and then conquer additional countries west of Ukraine. Virtually all the available evidence is at odds with this perspective. In fact, the United States and it eur and its European allies provoked the war. This is not to deny, of course, that Russia started the war by invading Ukraine. But the underlying cause of the conflict was the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance, which virtually all Russian leaders saw as an existential threat that must be eliminated. But NATO expansion is not the whole problem as is part of a broader strategy that aims to make Ukraine a western bullwark on Russia's border bringing Keev into the European Union and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine. You all remember the orange revolution which was designed to make Ukraine a pro-western liberal democracy. are the other two prongs of the policy. So I want to make it clear here there are three prongs to NATO to to uh the west policy toward Ukraine. One is NATO expansion into Ukraine. Two is EU expansion into Ukraine and three is uh uh regime change turning uh Ukraine into a pro-western liberal democracy. Uh, Russian leaders fear all three prongs of this policy, but they fear NATO expansion the most. As Putin put it, Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist while facing a permanent threat from the territory of today's Ukraine.
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