Transcription
Hello people! How is everyone doing? The situation is that the talk about gold, silver, and so on has really picked up here. I promised you a quantitative easing video, and since there's a lot of news, writings, and so on that separately handle gold, silver, and so on, quantitative easing, and risky assets, and it connects everything, or all these investment sectors, only by money migrating from one to another. So I thought we'd clarify a bit, at least I'll tell you what I think, what my opinion is, and when this profit will migrate to crypto. Because the situation is that the gold-silver, and so on rally and profit realization, if it happens, is much more complicated than what we experience or see with crypto. The players are different, of course, they execute these plans differently. So yeah, let's chat a bit. Before we dive in, be sure to subscribe, and of course, I hope everyone received the weekly analysis, ArenaFit plus, it was about Bitcoin and the dollar, because it's very interesting. In fact, perhaps one of the most important things is the dollar right now. If you haven't received it, or can't see the weekly analysis, please check your spam and promotions folders before writing a message or sending a private message, because so far I'll tell you 100% of people haven't checked their folders. There was someone who wrote to me on four different platforms, just didn't check what I was replying, so they moved on to the next platform. Before you message, please, take a look at your emails. BBIT has a new promotion, they're giving away money again. If you're interested, the link is in the description. They will be giving away $25, $50, and $100. So yeah, definitely register. I know there's a bit of silence around the exchange right now, of course, due to the new law and regulation, but believe me, this will be resolved relatively quickly, and things will speed up. When they launch everything and you want to trade capital, because you'll get a strategy for it, for example, from me, then there will be a rush, or you'll have registered elsewhere, or you won't have registered at all. So yeah, register, because it's free anyway. Well, let's discuss what's happening with gold, silver, and so on, quantitative easing. And of course, when will this money, or when will this money migrate to crypto? As you can see, gold is above 5000. It's crazy. By the way, I remember when it was at 3000, and it was sideways here, and we were looking at it, saying it had already come a pretty good way and had been sideways for a while, so we were really waiting for it to go down, but it didn't go down, it nicely went up to 5000. Of course, there was a stumble, but we'd rather call that a smaller correction. Now everyone is asking whether to get into gold or start shorting. And I have to say to both questions, well, neither. For those who want to get in, think carefully, and plan for the very long term, because we don't know what will happen from here, or in which direction they will sell gold, or buy more. And for those who would start shorting, consider that there are very strong green candles, and nothing is stopping gold from continuing to move upwards. Now, the situation is that we already saw an interesting red candle yesterday, which we watched live on Discord, and we thought it would reverse here, but it didn't. Of course, this is also true for silver, I don't even need to show it much. It has a slightly larger wick, but I think it's just a slight delay, or it's lagging behind gold. Silver usually arrives a bit later than gold. So, short sellers, think very carefully, because this is not certain, it's not certain that it's a good setup for a short, and anyway, nothing indicates a trend reversal. Now, regarding gold, something needs to be understood. Unlike Bitcoin, crypto, and so on. The players in gold, the big ones, are the states, right? Not the United States, although them too, but countries, for example, Russia, right, or France, or Brazil, Hungary too, but especially Poland, Czech Republic, Italy is in the top five, Kazakhstan bought a lot of tons of gold, and so on, and so on. America, of course, didn't buy gold because they have it, and not a little, 800 tons or 8000 tons, maybe 8000 tons, but the point is, when they collected gold, stored it, or bought it, let's not forget that in 1970 they collected gold, collected it from people, because they banned it, it's accounted for at purchase price. And a lot of videos and information came out that Trump's plan is to revalue this gold at today's price, and print money with the Fed as collateral, because if there is collateral, then money can be printed, although gold backing was abolished a long time ago. Now, what effect this would have on the economy is a completely different video. So we won't go into whether this could cause inflation. By the way, yes. And we won't go into what would happen if this happened, or if they did this, and poured the extra printed money into the economy. Let's talk more about whether there's a chance that gold will be sold, and whether this gold money will move into other assets, like crypto? I think what many, many people forget and don't consider is that gold investors are not the same as risky investors. They are gold investors because they believe in it, and everything else is crap or speculative to them. Of course, there are those who have gold and invest in everything else too. However, believe me, those who have gold as an investment, or let's say they hold gold for diversification purposes, will not sell it. They won't sell it because no major sale is expected from any single country. Yesterday we talked about, for example, Poland with 200 tons of gold, and when they will sell it, to use that money for economic development, let's say. And my idea was that they probably won't sell it. They won't sell it because they can easily take out a loan from the IMF, for example, and use the gold as collateral for this loan. So why would they sell it? Because if they get money that they can spend on economic development, from which money comes to the state, they will repay the loan and keep their gold. And the gold will sit there nicely in the vault, of course, it's not even in Poland, but in London and New York. And the economic development has been achieved. Now, if someone is working with such a large amount of money, investing, where they can make a large profit from gold, and we are talking about billions here, then what is the chance that they will sell gold now, or at, I don't know, 5500, damn it, 6000, and reinvest it, say, in crypto? My personal opinion is probably none. In fact, my personal opinion is that the chance of selling now, and if they do sell, of reinvesting it in crypto, that chance is probably even smaller. The stock market is quite high, stocks are high, AI companies are high. And now let's switch back and look at how sideways Nvidia is also trading, then why wouldn't they say, with these or the current economic policy situation, with macro data, that if they sell their gold, they'll invest it in crypto now? That would be foolish. Why wouldn't they invest it when there's a big correction? And I know it seems like a long time, like this summer, or two years from now, or three years from now, but when we're talking about such amounts of money, then these two-three years don't count as a long time, in fact, they count as a short time. They easily park the money for several years to wait for a good entry point. And when there's a good entry point, because believe me, there will be, because what goes up also comes down, and then starts again from there, then they will nicely start buying into various assets. And could they buy back gold? Possibly. Could they pour it into the stock market? That's also quite possible, and even into crypto. Now, here comes quantitative easing into play, right? Because they talk about it a lot, we talk a lot about whether it has started, if it's coming, and so on. Regarding quantitative easing, only one thing is certain, and that is that quantitative easing is over. We know that they inject 40 billion per month into the economy, but if you ask anywhere, or look it up, then of course you will notice, or you will get the information that I also find, which I suspected anyway. They are doing this, they are maintaining it, or they are printing this 40 billion, and injecting it back into the economy, to sustain the banks, so that the banks don't go bankrupt with such high base interest rates, because banks, of course, live off nothing else but loans, except that for people who have long-term loans, the loan interest rate is lower than the current base interest rate, which we generally call found money. Of course, I'm not saying now that they don't take out new loans, because they do, but economic growth, as seen in GDP, especially in Hungary, as I say in my captain video, is quite stagnant, or appears to be stagnant. Now, let everyone ask themselves, do these people, investors, institutions, anyone who handles large amounts of money with gold, know how the market works? Because believe me, they know better than us. In fact, they have inside information, and believe me, they will know sooner when normal or actual quantitative easing is coming than we notice it in the market, because by the time they say yes, this is it, we will already be more than halfway through quantitative easing. Now, they also know very well that risky assets need to be sold to someone, so that the buyer doesn't end up stuck with them. And with quantitative easing, it's usually towards the very end, or it's possible to sell very easily, very expensively, and of course, for that, this line needs to start moving upwards. This means that the monthly money printing increases, the monthly amount of money injected into the economy increases. Now I know someone will write that M2 is going up, I don't know what. The graph of M2 is going up vertically. Nothing matters, because M2 Money Supply is a combination of liquid and illiquid money, its composition is M1 Money Supply, which can be invested by exit liquidity, i.e., small investors. Until M1 starts going up, meaning people don't have money left over from month to month, so they start thinking, why am I not an investor too, and invest in something that multiplies my money in a week. Until then, there will be no exit liquidity. Now, I said the economy is stagnating, but it's not stagnating so much that there's a problem, at least from the Fed's perspective. Speaking of the Fed's perspective, live tomorrow, people. Okay, so there's an FOMC meeting, we'll see if there will be a base rate cut. CME Group says there won't be, so I'm very curious. I'm also curious how the market will react to it, but tomorrow, of course, I will broadcast it live, and I'm probably preparing for a longer live stream. But let's continue. Since Jerome Powell stated in December that there will be a 0.2% base rate cut throughout 2026, that tells me either the economy is doing very well, or they don't expect any severe downturns, bankruptcies, when they have to bail out any bank or larger company. This means to me that we have two options left when we can start looking towards investing in smaller risky assets. One is if Trump really follows through with this plan with gold, and there will be money printing with this extra gold backing that they will print for the public. The other is that we really have to wait for quantitative easing, and quantitative easing will not come, or will not be effective with high base interest rates. The situation is that something is needed to quickly lower base interest rates, or something is needed to slowly lower them. And the biggest problem with slowly lowering base interest rates, or lowering base interest rates over years, is that it can lead to stagflation. This means that for a very long time, all assets, not all assets, but many types of assets will stagnate, move sideways, move up and down within a given range, but there will be no brutal or euphoric breakout on the crypto or stock side. Of course, there will always be industries that, I don't know, some news comes out and so on, and then they start to rise. However, however, I am talking about the big market or the market as a whole now. And does this mean that everything is over, it's a bear market, and we shouldn't expect anything good from here? I don't think it means that. Especially when talking about assets where it's not just small investors who decide whether a given asset goes up or down. Now, the fact that meme coins probably won't go up is highly likely. However, if Bitcoin, for example, drops to a certain level where it's bought back again, because everyone starts accumulating, because the situation is that if it drops to around 80, around 70, then I will restart my own DCA strategy. At a certain point, after an accumulation period, we will probably see another breakout, which will drive up the price of Bitcoin, for example, for a while. And if Bitcoin goes up, then a few larger altcoins will also go up. Now, if there's a crash, a big correction, and so on, which, let's say, leads to the bankruptcy of a bank, an insurance company, something that has a domino effect, or butterfly effect on people's livelihoods, loan repayments, and so on, then it's likely that the Fed will quickly start lowering the base interest rate, and we will see something similar, if not as dramatic, as what we saw in the second half of 2020. If they find a solution in America like this gold thing, for which they print money, which is probable, although I know it requires congressional approval, however, in May, the new Fed chairman comes, whom Trump chose, then fresh money might enter the market, which will also move risky assets. Now, there would be two reasons for this to be good. One, America would very quickly repay a lot of its debts. That's why I think this is a logical, or let's say, a possible option for money printing at any cost, to repay the debt, because Trump constantly repeated this at the beginning of his term, that's why they kicked him out of Washington, so to speak. Since then, Trump is back, and they might have decided that okay, maybe something like this is needed after all. However, instead of very harsh austerity measures, let's look for or find another option. And the option will hurt many people, but in the end, they will present it as, hey people, the dollar is strengthening. It's presented roughly like they presented the forint strengthening in the last half year, they just didn't say from where. Think about it. And of course, tomorrow in the live stream, we will talk about strategy, about how we can take advantage of this, what to watch out for, what will be the signs that we can say it's time to focus on the market, not outwards, but inwards. Yeah, that's about it. Goodbye.