Transcription
Hello, good day everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about BTC first, which is not far from erasing, well, its drop that we had yesterday. We will then talk about Ether, which is performing rather well. Three altcoins to analyze: NIR, XRP, and Aero. And we will talk about the US market here. Before I begin, I remind you for Black Friday, you have €200 offered. So for those who want to join the Crypto Investor program, it's the best time. Don't hesitate to become autonomous. Train yourself to simply perform better, well, in terms of performance on cryptos, whether in a bull market or a bear market, to be 100% autonomous. Don't hesitate to also look at the testimonials. There are people who were like you a few years ago, a few months ago, who didn't specifically have the knowledge, the skills that they have now. And you can see here some testimonials that are also found on Trust Pilot. These are authentic reviews. You can also discuss with them in the Discord. And as I say, well, these investors, uh, were beginners just like you. Uh, they were not profitable, they were losing money, they had portfolios in the red, they trained themselves and now they simply have a good crypto education. They know when to buy, when to sell, how to choose the right cryptos, how to have a good portfolio, what to do in a bull market, in a bear market, and, uh, and so on. So if you want to join them, if you want to be, uh, good like them, make good decisions, and especially generate profits on cryptos, I invite you to click on the first link in the description to activate your €200 offered.
So, I'll start here with BTC. Uh, we saw yesterday that we were in a good zone to look for longs. In any case, if the buyers who put a V bottom here want to turn this into a W, well, it's still in this zone that they have a chance to do it, simply, uh, because here, we have a good buying reaction and what did we come back to? Our reload zone between 0.180786 and we have a good buying reaction here for the moment. So be careful, the bottom is not yet drawn, it is not, uh, realized. We are here in a sideways phase. If I switch to 4-hour, we see it a bit more in, uh, a range phase, it's something we saw together, which is the most probable that we continue like this for so many consecutive days in the red. Such a significant drop in just, well, from October 27th or thereabouts, in a month, let's say, we've taken a -30% on BTC, that's not nothing. So, well, it's not surprising that the market is breathing. Especially, we've come back to this previous accumulation phase and for the moment, we have buyers showing themselves. We are in a range. A range preceded by a downtrend has a higher chance of breaking downwards. Now, I'm not saying that's why I'm going to anticipate the break. And this is where we see market psychology and ranges like this when there's been a lot of volatility, when people are a bit lost, and whether we're in a bull market, bear market, what to do. It's too interesting to monitor the psychology in, in its range. I remember when it was, uh, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, everyone wanted longs. Everyone, everyone wanted longs. That's it, it's bullish, it's going to break. And I was the first to tell you, well, we're at resistance, calm down. That's not where we're going to look for longs. And boom, yesterday when we came back to this zone, I told you that yes, it's rich, but in any case, it's an interesting zone to look for longs. Nobody wants longs anymore, and it's weird, it pumps, everyone wants longs now. No, do the opposite of what the majority of people want to do. We are in a range, we are approaching the upper extremity again. We are not in a good zone to look for longs here. It's absolutely not interesting because you don't have a good risk-reward, you don't have a professional entry. Wait for a pullback. Maybe we'll do this, maybe we'll do this to go back to the upper extremity. But wait to come back to the lower extremity to look for longs, or wait to have this type of movement. Okay? A break and pullback to go to the next resistance. For the moment, we haven't put in a bottom. We still have medium to long-term moving averages pointing downwards. We see here that the H4 tunnel and the 1-hour tunnel. We are in a range, we see it on the 15-minute and the 1-hour, both tunnels are flat. Either you do range trading, or you wait for a real direction of the market. But for the moment, in the long term, I remain cautious.
Now, many people ask me the question, yes, but I'm not sure if we are in a bear market or a bull market. At worst, forget these words. Yes, it's true that these are words I can use, that others can use, but forget these words. The market, we experience phases of retracement of 25%, 30%, 40%, etc. You determine intervention levels. Okay? And you proceed in stages. You have an exposure slider. If you don't have that, it's something to implement right now. Well, you determine your exposure slider, you determine your balance, what I call cash crypto. Okay? That is to say, how much cash you have for how much crypto you have. Most of you are all-in, I know that in advance. That is to say, you have zero cash, 100% crypto, and you are not flexible. And all those, and I'm telling you, and you ask the question in the Discord to anyone. All those who haven't taken this into account, this cash-crypto balance, who have implemented it, are much more comfortable today. And I'm telling you, really, you go into the Discord, you ask this question, everyone who has implemented it will tell you it's something incredible. From now on, those who haven't done it, do this exercise, take all your wallets, exchanges, express, whatever, all your wallets, look at all the cryptos you have, the cash you have, okay? With an Excel file, formulas, it's very easy. Ask Chat GPT, sorry, for help and it will calculate for you how much percentage of crypto you have compared to the cash you have. Let's say we'll be at 80/20 maybe. If you have, I don't know, €800 of crypto and €200 of cash, well, you're at 80. If you have €5000 of crypto, €5000 of cash, you're more at a 50/50. And this slider, you'll adjust it to have a bit more cash or a bit more or a bit less cash depending on how the market evolves. For example, we are here in a downtrend. Well, very good, the cash you have on hand, you'll simply use it to re-enter positions at good levels. And here we're not talking about bull market, bear market. See, we're starting to have a first retracement of -35%. Okay? Well, you'll perhaps start to re-enter slightly, and you have orders lower down, and here orders lower down. You get triggered, very good, you see how the market evolved. Maybe it will be a bit more complicated than expected. We'll make a lower point, like this, it's possible. And when we come back to interesting long-term levels, you'll take your profits, and you see we don't say, "Oh, bull market, bear market, I sell everything." No, in stages. In stages, exposure slider in stages. If you proceed like this, you'll be much more comfortable, you'll make many fewer mistakes, and you'll see that it will be much easier to manage. But the mistake is to say, "Yes, that's it, they're talking about a bear market, I sell everything, I'm 100% crypto." "Ah, that's it, bull market, sign of a bottom." Okay, I go all-in. No professional investor works like that. It's not possible, I'm telling you. We work in stages with an exposure slider that adapts according to your analysis, market analysis, technical analysis, fundamental, macro, market context, and so on, according to your investor profile. Okay, that's an important point. You have an exposure slider that adapts to your investor profile based on your convictions, based on the objectives that have been achieved, based on, well, many criteria. It's up to you to include these criteria. We don't all have the same criteria, but the first three criteria, the first two at least, are the most important, and that depends only on you. And this cash-crypto balance, well, it evolves over time according to all these parameters. And similarly, the cash you should allocate to certain cryptos, you do the same thing. You have your cash, your overall cash-crypto balance. Okay? And then, you'll have this same balance for BTC, for Ether. Okay? And in your strategy, you say, "Very well, I want 30% BTC, uh, 15% Ether, for example." If that's your plan, do you have 30% BTC currently? No. So you might have your cash-crypto balance. Okay. How much BTC do you have compared to the cash you want to put into Bitcoin? And similarly, you proceed in stages. If you operate like this, I guarantee you, you'll be much more comfortable. So yes, maybe you won't make the x1000 that the person made by going all-in on an altcoin at the very bottom. That's true, except that there's one in 100,000 people, and the others, they're down -99%. Have a long-term vision, have a long-term approach. And you'll see that with this type of principle that I've just shown you very quickly, you try to develop it a bit on your own. I promise you, you'll have better results, and especially psychologically, you'll be much more comfortable. This is really important, what I've just said, but I promise you, some people will watch this and say, "Yeah, no, forget it, I don't care what you tell me." I guarantee you, it will change your way of investing. HH As for me, what am I doing currently? I'm really waiting for the move above $92,000. Otherwise, for the moment, I'm trying to monitor if I have setups for the short term, which is not, uh, the case today. Okay, we've broken the weekly pivot point, the daily pivot point, we have strong momentum, I haven't specifically had any setups. If I have pullbacks, why not? But for the moment, I haven't taken any trades today. In the long term, nothing has changed. I was executed at $86,000. A portion, as I told you, we proceed in stages, a portion, I was able to enter here. Okay, now I'll see how the market evolves. And if we put in a bottom here, my opinion is that we could go back to globally $100,000. If we start to settle above $92,000, $93,000, it's to go to $100,000. But for the moment, the most probable scenario is a rejection. Why? Because at a resistance zone, at an upper extremity, well, the most probable thing is always to reject a resistance, you short it, a support, you long it, and not the opposite. Okay? That's really, really important. So on BTC, not much more to say. Ah yes, someone asked me a question, they asked me, "How do you set your production cost for BTC?" You see, yesterday, I showed you an indicator that I use from time to time. So, it's an indicator, I use it in the long term, but this is the production cost of BTC which allows us to know at what level miners become profitable or not. Well, it's simply an indicator. You type here, Bitcoin production cost. Uh, you go into the parameters, I think there's only one thing to change, it's 0.035 because well, it depends on the electricity cost. That's for you to find out. According to the latest news, it was around this figure. It can, uh, it can evolve, of course. It's been a while since I've checked, but it's unlikely that it has quadrupled. Okay. Now, it's still something to consider, and it's true that before, I used to check more. If anyone has information on this in the comments, don't hesitate to tell me because it's an indicator I use to get a rough idea of a zone, but I don't just use that. Okay? Price action is much more important, support levels, etc., are much more important, and market reaction as well. But it remains a reference point. Now, you have to update the electricity cost here. And well, for that, you need to have the latest news, it was 0.035. Now, that's been a while. So we'll see what happens, but well, that's how you add this indicator.
Now on Ether, a rather significant rebound as we have today. We're erasing yesterday's drop. We'll see depending on the daily closes as well. It's pretty similar. Ether's chart looks a lot like BTC's chart. After that, we'll look at the ETH BTC chart. But to validate a bottom, well, we'd need to go above $3100, $3100-$3150 to have a real confirmation of a W structure, to have a real bottom forming, and in that case, we'd have a good chance of reaching much higher levels, having a small rally, it's possible, well, in December, to have a small bullish dynamic that doesn't say, "That's it, it's back," or at least a direction towards ATH, but we can retest, for example, $3500 at the tunnel level. Here, there's a first zone that can be interesting, and if we really push and have buyers who are a bit motivated, okay, and no sellers showing up, then we can reach $3900. For me, these are two targets to have a rebound in a potentially bearish underlying dynamic to have a continuation here. After that, I'm telling you this, I don't know. Maybe here we'll have no selling pressure, buyers who don't structure higher highs and higher lows. And here, we'll just make higher highs and higher lows and have a continuation, it's possible. But I can't anticipate that in advance. The most important thing is never to predict, the number of predictions I see on the internet. Yes, uh, BTC, this level and that. Uh, all the models of, well, there are many trading models. I'm not a fan. Okay, I'm not into anticipation, I'm into, okay, what do I observe at this exact moment? And at this exact moment, we are in a range preceded by a bearish dynamic. As long as we are in a bearish dynamic, there's a higher chance of breaking downwards. That's how it is. When we were in this zone, well, it was the same. When we were in this zone, well, it was the same. And that's how a bearish dynamic is, it's lower lows. Okay? So all ranges, we have a higher chance of breaking downwards. That's what I was telling you here. This range, higher chance of breaking upwards. This range, same. And this range is also the case. And when we do trend continuation, we take the initial trend and we always start from the principle that it will continue. Now, we have good risk management because when I do this, I know at some point I'll be wrong because a trend has to stop, it's inevitable. At some point, an uptrend will become a downtrend. Well, before that, it will go through a range and then a trend, and then a downtrend, but I have good risk management. But here too, I start from the principle that there's a higher chance of breaking downwards. Now, as I say, I have risk management. I know what to do if I have to take trades until we have an inversion of our dynamic. And if we do this, okay, well, then potentially a bullish dynamic until we put in a top and turn around. So, yes, and Ether is globally the same. We're back above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, but we globally have tunnels that are quite flat. We have the 4-hour which is, uh, which is above. Ideally, if we have a liquidity grab here, we need to monitor how we get there. If there can be a short that can be taken, if we do something like this, re-entry, yes, there can be a potential short that can be taken. And, uh, what would be bullish is to go above $3100 and have acceptance above that level. Acceptance, what does that mean? It means first of all closing above and then spending time above. We don't want a quick re-entry, ideally a pullback and a rejection. And then we have what's called acceptance because there's a difference between a break and acceptance. If I have a range, a break is this. This is a break. But we can very well re-enter and go back the other way. Acceptance is either consecutive candles below that level which simply confirm that, well, we're settling below, or it's simply having a pullback and a rejection. That's when we accept the level. Okay? Buyers, uh, give up, and sellers here continue their, their break. But there's a difference, as I said, between break and acceptance because often breaks are accompanied by traps and re-entries. BTC and ETR are done.
So, I wanted to look at UTH BTC, we'll look at it together. A chart that I like to look at from time to time. We have, so what is this? It's the chart of Ethereum against Bitcoin. It allows us to know who is outperforming whom. When we are in a bullish dynamic like this, we have Ether outperforming BTC, recording better performance. That doesn't mean Ether is gaining price against, gaining against the dollar. Okay? Because we can very well have an Ether that gains -3%, a BTC that gains -10%, well, the ETH BTC pair will increase. Okay? It's who is performing better than whom? Okay? Simply Ether divided by BTC. Here, a sideways phase, we break downwards, a downtrend, we come back to this sideways phase at this level. And here, what do we do? We put in a W structure. For me, the bottom has been made here. We won't go back to lower levels. For me, we have a bottom here. And here, we're on a small pullback. We've come back to the memory tunnel. Yes, we're consolidating around the tunnel. We're in a good zone to try to structure a bottom and why not have a rally that pushes and continues to outperform BTC as it has done since the bottom we structured in April 2025. For the moment, we have a primary uptrend within a secondary trend that is rather bearish, we see it clearly at this level with lower lows and lower highs. See, we have the example here, M top, range, higher chance of breaking downwards. We break the range, again, higher chance of breaking downwards. Now, we're exhausting this trend, and a bullish signal would be to go back above this level. Then there will be a rather interesting signal showing us that Ether is ready to outperform BTC.
So, altcoins, we have NIR here. So, NIR, what's happening? First of all, I told you, I'll tell you again, be careful with quite a few altcoins. Okay, some have a really ugly chart. NIR, we are still in this sideways phase on a previous accumulation zone after losing this range. What does that mean? It means that here, we have our market top forming here, we range, and we're a bit stuck between two bounds. We're coming back to an accumulation phase. So that's why we have a floor forming here around between $1.5 and $2. A zone where buyers are showing themselves. We see it clearly on daily, here we have buying reactions every time. Now we've slipped, what we need to look at is if we re-enter. If we go back, technically, globally, if we go back above 1.9, we'll see a more bullish signal. We'd simply be in a re-entry, and we'd have a good chance of reaching the middle of the range, or even the opposite extremity. On the other hand, if we don't re-enter, see, that's what I was telling you before, acceptance and break. Here, we have a break on daily, we have a break on weekly, no? Okay, but on daily, we have a break. Acceptance is if we reject here, boom, if we reject here to do this, this, this, we have acceptance. Here, it's bearish. If we do this, it's very bullish. We simply have a deviation. So, we'll have to monitor. It's really at a very important level. In any case, it's not a level I'll short personally because I don't want to short this type of bad range. We're not far from the bottom that was put in. On the other hand, there can be a bullish signal with a stop loss below the deviation to revisit the middle, or even the top of the range. And otherwise, for a better long-term structure, well, it would be good to have a W structure. It can be here, it can be lower at this level, it's possible. Uh, but well, Ne, it remains an interesting project. Now, there are many interesting projects where, well, the chart is in freefall. And even then, NIR, it's okay, frankly. NIR is correct. So yes, we're down -80%, but look at many altcoins that are down -99% and are making, have a chart like this currently, and have a chart like this. It's very ugly. Many of them are in this configuration phase of making lower lows and lower highs. NIR is a range, so I'd say there are worse. And that's not why you should position yourself on NIR. The goal isn't to say, "Ah, well, there are worse." No, the goal is to look for the best positions. Now, well, altcoins in general are taking a much bigger hit, especially at the moment.
XRP analysis. Uh, XRP since the beginning of 2025, it hasn't done much. Uh, it had a good pump. Most of the time, you should know that the market is in a range. I think the statistic is about 75% of the time the market is in a range. We clearly see a range, a prior uptrend to return here into a range. So XRP remains an altcoin that is quite resilient, only -40%. Okay, with very good performance. So I think the majority of people who are on XRP have made gains. Those who are positioned low, if you haven't taken profits yet, I wonder what you're doing, because it's a high-cap crypto. It's not a crypto that will still do a x15 from here. Now, where are we located? We are located at a lower extremity, and on XRP, we are in a good zone to look for longs. Clearly, someone who trades XRP, well, it's rather at the lower extremity where they'll look for longs. Here, we are potentially at the beginning of an inversion of our dynamic. For that, we really need to go above 2.30 to confirm the W structure. Here, we see clearly for a while, well, since this top in July, the highs are getting lower and lower, and for the moment, we have no sign of inversion. If I put moving averages, it will be visible. Boom! See, the 4-hour has acted as resistance for a while. Here, here, here. And here, we are retesting it. We are in a compression between the 3-day tunnel and the 4-hour. If we break the 4-hour upwards, pullback, well, then we can be in a very good context to put in a bottom and start a bullish rally. I'm not saying it will happen like that, but globally, we'll have a good chance of structuring, boom, a bottom and revisiting, in the first instance, 0.382. It's a good zone, in addition to a price action point, $2.5, daily tunnel. It's a good zone here to potentially take profits. After that, otherwise, there are the 0.5 retracement levels, the 0.786. Well, step by step, someone who longs, well, they simply take their profits on the way up. So XRP is far from being the king crypto. Clearly, as I said, strong bullish dynamic, return to a lower extremity, well, it can be a good zone for longs. On the other hand, we have an invalidation because if this is to be a distribution pattern, it means we will retrace significantly and go back to much lower levels. So we invalidate. The goal is not to hold a crypto that, if it loses such an important level, can drop by -60%.
And the last altcoin, Aero. Uh, we'll take Coin, I'll go look for a bit more history. Mexé, no, what did I take? Pit? Yes, I don't remember what I had. I don't remember which chart has the most history. When did Aero start? Every time I analyze it, I forget. January 2024. January 2024 base. Perfect. Boom. So, uh, where are we with, where are we with Aero? Well, we are still in this sideways phase, it hasn't changed. Well, stuck here between two bounds, and well, it's a bit similar to what we saw just before. The lower extremity, a good zone to look for longs. The upper extremity, a good zone to look for shorts. Now, no bottom is forming on Aero. You have to be patient. It's like this entire bearish dynamic, and the person who positions themselves haphazardly, who tries to anticipate the bottom every time, will get burned until a bottom is constructed. And the bottom is quite simple to see here. Now, I'm not saying the next one will be as simple, but here we see the top pattern, the M top. If you have trouble, we switch to a line chart, we see it clearly here. And from there, lower highs until we reach a stage where we make a high, a low, and this time, a higher low. A higher high. What is it? A W structure. Put it on a line chart, we see it clearly. And then, we start the bullish rally. Here, we are still in a bearish dynamic. We are approaching the lower extremity. I'm putting moving averages. Boom, we see clearly that we still have the 1-hour below the 4-hour. If we start here to go back above the 1-hour, go back above the 4-hour, structure a bottom, well, then, okay, it can be a good signal to look to position ourselves and revisit the middle or even the top of the range. But for the moment, for me, it's too early to position ourselves. Uh, well, I've covered everything. Don't hesitate to tell me the altcoins you want me to analyze if you want to train yourself and join all the investors I've shown you here who have left a great testimonial because they know that this training has allowed them to be much more complete in crypto, well, don't hesitate to join them by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.