Transcription
Bitcoin today should be at 160,000. That's the discount we are to fair value according to liquidity. Memes went down 99%, Salana goes down 55%, ETH goes down 40% and Bitcoin is flat and that's what really kind of hurt everybody.
2025 was the year nobody expected. Liquidity vanished, markets crashed, and billions got wiped out. But according to R Paul, 2026 is about to change everything. All of our forward-looking indicators suggest that growth explodes in 2026. We've got fiscal stimulus. We've got interest rates coming lower, liquidity coming into the system.
So, we should see about 87% of the people that are watching aren't subscribed. If you choose to subscribe, we are able to be getting better guests and to do more in-person conversations. It doesn't cost you anything. It helps us enormously. Become part of the New Era Finance podcast community. Thank you very much, Ro. Welcome back to the show.
Um, since we last since we last spoke, nothing really happened to the crypto markets. We're still at like 90k and it feels like a complete ghost town. What has happened? You know, it's been a 2025 was, we all know, was a weird year because everyone was expecting a positive year, started really strong, then faded, and then fell apart later on in the year. And it was a story of liquidity and an extended business cycle. And it was a lot more technical because people just thought that there was this four-year cycle and it just magically happens. And it doesn't work that way. You know, economic forces are what drives everything. and the major economic forces liquidity and the management of global debts. And what we found later than I should have found it was that the debt cycle had been extended by another year. And so and also the political cycle is really geared towards 2026. So last year liquidity was being drained somewhat.
Um, but then what really happened was that October period when the government shutdown happened.
Mhm.
And crypto got hit because of that massive liquidation on October the 10th and it never recovered. And you know if I look at like um global liquidity versus NASDAQ, it mapped it perfectly. So the everything code worked perfectly for technology stocks and then crypto it didn't. So there there had to have been something that happened within the crypto market which was a the withdrawal of liquidity. It's the furthest out the risk curve. It gets hit by liquidity. But also something structurally broke over that period of time. And we saw that big seller come in every single day. What that was caused by nobody's ever going to know. You know, was it Binance who ended up having to backs stop their own marketplace because there was no market makers because the APIs had broken and everything else had broken and then they had to unload inventory. Who knows? I don't think we may never know what happened.
Um, but that disconnect if we'd have followed the map as NASDAQ did perfectly, Bitcoin today should be at 160,000. So that's the discount we are to fair value according to liquidity. So that was the feature of the year. It was a technical year because of what happened. Um, it should have been a lot stronger finish to the year.
Um, but what we do know is we've got a lot of liquidity coming in 2026. before we tackle all these topics. I mean,
And also just to go back to that is the other thing people struggle with in their heads is yeah, we can talk about Bitcoin and Bitcoin was pretty flat, but then anything further out the risk curve gets hit more and so, you know, memes went down 99%. You know, more speculative stuff goes down 90%. the kind of newer stuff that's still high quality goes down 65%. Salana goes down 55%, ETH goes down 40% and Bitcoin is flat. You know, it's that that whole thing and that's what really kind of hurt everybody.
There was one assets in the last quarter that actually did well which was called Cash Ccash. But then the entire dev team today announced that they will quit CCash and start a new project. So that one is also starting to fumble.
Well, the issue is is if there's no new liquidity coming in, you get a a rotation of liquidity within for people searching for the next narrative. So Zcash is still yet proven to see whether it was a just a rotation or net new capital coming into a new idea. I happen to think it's probably a reasonable narrative and I'm sure something gets resolved with this team leaving. I don't know the full specifics yet. It's just coming out. But the narrative makes sense that privacy is going to be an important part of this.
Um, so let's see how it plays out. But right now it was just it just sucks out capital from one part of the market, sticks it into the other part of the market because there's no new money coming into the crypto economy really.
Mhm. Yeah. I mean, I've been to to New York last year at SmartCon and all the big institutions want to have some sort of shield or privacy when they want to be on chain. They don't want everyone to see their transactions. So, it's being built, but it just simply takes time. And I think Ccash took the narrative and basically took it away, including Naval and all the things that have been happening with the big guys talking about Ccash.
But before we dive into crypto, um last quarter we've seen the biggest move in silver and gold pretty much in 40 50 years. What's the story behind that run in your opinion?
So that run is gold almost exactly mirrors financial conditions and how we measure financial conditions is a blend of the dollar interest rates and oil and gold has been following that. So we had a big easing of financial conditions. Gold follows it. silver lags um a little bit, but what what it is actually doing is gold there's the chart that I've shown in the past and I haven't got it here in front of me of interest payments that are due for the US and it goes vertical
because interest rates went up and all of the extra debt from the pandemic.
Gold is following that path up because we need the liquidity and the financial conditions to pay that. Bitcoin lags gold
and so what you've got and so does um liquidity. So you've got fin um you've got the interest payments ahead, you've got gold and financial conditions, you've then got liquidity and Bitcoin lives at the liquidity level. So they're all the same map. It's a road map to where this is all going.
That's uh I think the first half of the year uh the most spread out chart came from you and real vision with the the M2 supply and the price action of Bitcoin and it took over in the last few months where the narrative shifted into u gold needs to top first because every time it did it in 2016 and 2020 that was the trigger for Bitcoin to actually start doing well but also for the so-called old season to start to occur. Is that in your opinion also what we need to have in order to actually see a risk on appetite?
It's coincidental because financial conditions top before liquidity does. So that tends to be the end of the cycle and what we do know is that the gains in crypto tend to be towards the end of the cycle. So it's coincidental that that happens. It's not a prerequisite. There's just a lag between it's like a there's like a six-month lag between um gold and liquidity.
So that's generally how it works.
I do a lot of trades every single day and I share that on social media and across our funds. We are also doing more than 2,000 trades per month. When you operate at that frequency, you want to have a partner that is reliable because if execution lacks, you will notice it and it will cost you money. Therefore, I've been paying attention to OKX as they have been introducing spot margin trading here in Europe, which is technically that you can use leverage. And in my opinion, I'm going to use leverage for my delta neutral strategies, volatility strategies where I can trade both sides. And you can also hedge your position if you're looking to be having an allocation in Bitcoin and ETH and if you expect the markets to go down. Used properly, leverage can become a tool instead of a risk, especially as I said with hatching and volatility based strategies. Go to the link in the description beneath which is okx.com/cryptoichel and make sure to become part of OKX and start using leverage as a tool instead of risk.
How does um just generally speaking, I know that you have a way better understanding of the business cycle and all the metrics and PMI data. Earlier in the week, the PMI data came out more positive. So, that's a good sign. But if 2026 is going to be another year where the PMI is not going to go up, what went wrong?
I mean, if you listen to Scott Besson, Donald Trump, and all the administration, they're all saying they expect huge growth in 2026.
Mhm.
And they know that growth has to come from businesses and so the focus is on that. All of our forward-looking indicators suggest that growth explodes in 2026. We've got fiscal stimulus and it just they keep adding to it. I mean there's more and more things to fiscally stimulate.
Um, we've got interest rates coming lower as well. We've got liquidity coming into the system via the banking system um because they may change the regulations of the banking system. All of that flows into businesses. So we should see a very strong ISM in 2026. They need it to win the midterms. It's like it's an imperative for them. And the good thing is we have a macro hedge fund manager running the treasury. So he understands the game. So that is the game. So the entire game is to drive up Main Street in terms of earnings and success and that is the ISM. So the ISM is the manufacturing, but that's the jobs. That's the people working in car factories. That's all of that. It's not so much the service employees and the service sector. They're giving them a break too by cutting um the tax on tips. It's a big deal because in in the United States, unlike in Europe, you know, these guys get minimum wage and actually make their money from the tips. So, you're giving them a huge tax break.
Um, so, they're really trying to juice all aspects of this. They've just done something they just announced today. I think Scott Besson announced again about cars and that interest payments on cars are going to be taxdeductible if you buy a car between 2025 and 20 anything bought between 2025 and 2028. So what does that do? It's going to drive people to buy cars. What does that do? Increase the ISM because they had the cars have to be manufactured in the United States. So you can see that all of the signals are there. They're all talking about it. So it would be a bizarre world if the ISM doesn't turn up. It would be never in history
and would mean the economy's entirely broken.
And on and to be honest um in my opinion the US needs to do this in order to fix their biggest problem which is the enormous amount of depth that they have.
Um, what I mean I think you have been speaking about this in your presentation at Solana Breakpoints but also in all other podcasts that I've watched before I went on to uh onto this one. Um, the last Fed meeting something has changed. We see that the overnight repos have started to become positive. There's now a chart going along where the balance sheet is blimping a little bit up and the entire mechanics for banks have also changed in terms of leverage and liquidity. Why is this change so important when we look at the entire scope of the business cycle?
Yeah. So again, listen to what Scott Bessant says. He's like, "We can't have stimulus for ma for Wall Street and not Main Street." What was that all about? What he was saying is, and Steve Merrane has been saying this as well, is we can't just use the balance sheet and use liquidity via the central bank to stimulate because all that does is push up assets prices because it's debasement of currency. And the the little trick that they did was say what we actually want to do is go back to using the banking system to do it which is what we did before 2008. So that means that they can issue directly treasuries and via the change in regulation allow the banks to buy more treasuries. Why that helps is the banks create money because they create leverage and so then they can lend it out and use that capital for other purposes. So that means that the the lending becomes available to main street companies, people, mortgages, car payments, all of the things that matter to ordinary people or ordinary businesses become more available. But the banks have been starved of the ability to do that because of the bank regulations after 2008.
Um, so so what they get an ability to do is directly monetize the debt as a government and dress it up as this is for Main Street. It's not. It's to get the issue of an independent central bank out of your way because if not they keep kind of stepping on the brakes and doing other things and they don't care so much about the management of the debt. They care about the management of the banking system itself and how it operates and the liquidity system. But this takes that away. So what the Fed have done is obviously because the monetary conditions were too tight, they stopped QT. They're now reinvesting some. So that's moving the balance sheets a little bit. They're obviously cutting rates.
Um, but really it the baton's been passed on to the government itself to monetize its own debts via the banking system.
Well, if someone is listening to this and um I know that there are a lot of very complex phrasing and very technical terms for especially for retail investors to understand what's happening in the market and early in 2025 we used to have the topic surrounding inflation and now it's getting more about okay we want to lower the interest rates we want to stimulate the economy and all of a sudden the entire recession fear starts to pop up Again, how can someone navigate with all those different topics that are taking place and all those big shifts that are being handled by the government and the Fed?
I think it's difficult to to show people, but if you if you want to know how financial conditions are doing,
look at gold.
Mhm. or look at the dollar. What is the dollar doing over time? You know, the dollar looks like it's gradually weakening again. So, there's some simple things to look at to see where we are in the cycle. Are rates going up or down? Generally, the bond market's reasonably well behaved and two-year rates are going lower. So, if you think interest rates are going down and the dollar's relatively weak, that's generally a good sign for the economy. You know, as simple as that. And so people, it feels like a recession to people because it is in manufacturing.
I mean, it has been. I mean, it's real. Yes, it's not in tech because they're having a boom time. They're not only cutting workers, but they're increasing earnings at the same time. So, productivity is going through the roof because of AI. Now, that's another management that they're going to have to do is the AI narrative could run away with them, which is like we're never going to create jobs because of AI.
Um, and then that becomes a real fear.
Um, but I think they're I mean, you can see them trying to manage it. And don't don't forget it's not manufacturing jobs that go because of AI. They'll go because of robots, but they've been going because of robots for years anyway. Look at a Tesla factory. It's mainly robots.
Um, yes, they do employ a lot of people, but not as many as it would have done if it was a car plant 30 years ago. So, I think people just need to realize that the government wants to win the election, the midterms, really importantly, to put through their very strong agenda that they've been pushing and therefore they will do anything for it. And the good thing is that means that us as ordinary people or ordinary Americans get bribed.
I need to to get like a little fact check that it's actually you ro instead of the AI version of you that's posting a lot of content out there. At some point we it's going to be AI versus AI anyways. But
it is
I mean for I try to put myself into the position of being a retail investor like you and I we you run a hedge fund. We are running a liquid fund and a venture capital. We are working on this day on day but for a retail investor it's looking like gold has just taken off. The tech stocks are just way up there and Bitcoin is just lagging behind. We're going to talk about Bitcoin in a little bit, but if you would have been making a broader view of assets that you would like to have for 2026, which categories are you going to include in such a basket? Is it just going to be crypto or anything out of that?
Well, it depends on your risk preference. Now, if traditionally, if this is the year that the business cycle picks up, then you want to be long commodities because that's what happens and commodity currencies. So that's copper, the um the basic materials producers like Rio Tinto and those giant companies, they'll kind of do what gold did, they should break out because the business cycle's picking up. So you'll see that as well. If you start to see copper breaking highs, usually means the economy is strengthening, which another good indicator people can use for the strength of the economy. So there's that cyclical stuff which investors can look at, but if it's going to be liquiditydriven, then crypto will do best. But technology is in a secular bull market anyway. So you kind of it's one of those years where you can pretty much point and shoot anywhere if I'm right and most things should work.
Bring me back to 2017. It worked back then as well.
Yeah. Um, but if
that doesn't mean that doesn't mean in crypto everything will work. It doesn't mean yeah but generally the the sectors work.
In terms of of looking at the current strengths of gold and silver I get some anxious vibes in the sense that usually when something happens like that something else breaks in the years after. We've seen it in 2006 where we had a big breakout of the commodities and then another run over that and then we had the big financial crisis. We've had the 70s where we had the basically stackflation after that in the 80s. We've seen 1928 1929. Is there any of these periods that you compare it to in terms of where we are at with the cycle?
So why do you get the period afterwards? Normally because interest rates go up afterwards and liquidity gets withdrawn because what gold is telling you is that a there's debasement of currency going on which we know but that also the easing of financial conditions is quite has been quite dramatic. So normally the economy then strengthens, commodities go up and everything follows through and eventually the the central bank has to cut rates uh has to hike rates and withdraw liquidity and that's what causes downside doesn't necessarily mean it will follow through and the reason being is because we now use the money printer to stop anything becoming bad. Yes, we will get a bare market again. Yes, we will get a we won't get a recession because we don't allow collateral prices to fall far enough because what we do is to base the currency. So optically makes the price of collateral go up. So that's why we've not outside of the pandemic which was one quarter recession. We've had no recessions
and it's because of this mechanism since 2008 where we've just used the money printer every single time. So I don't think it's the same mechanism again, but it is the same thing is the economy is broken and so they keep printing money. So they're debasing the money away from you. But people don't realize that.
Uh and that's complicated because if let's say 2027 is a bad year, they hike interest rates because you know inflation's rising a bit. They withdraw liquidity, market falls. Okay, fine. they then come in and add liquidity just like they did in 2022. What you then get is assets going to the moon again because people then pretty much know the game.
Um, and you know, my thesis has been we end up in a spectacular blowoff top in technology and crypto and all of this stuff because everybody starts to understand what the game is
and that technology is so all powerful right now um that it makes no money to makes no sense to invest in anything that's not basically AI and blockchain. I mean uh I completely agree on that and I think it's all the debasement trade right so it's not in plain sight that you're losing money but it's due to the fact that inflation is so high the hurdle rate is so high so you basically need to make like 10 11% on a year to stay on your um standard living standard basically but in my opinion and that's just a humble opinion if people are being forced or like they feel they need to invest into assets that inquire risk. So they need to make 10 to 11% on a year. So they buy Bitcoin, they buy riskier assets, what's the risk there? Because if everyone is investing into those assets, at some point some systemic risk will take place.
Well, it depends what the systemic risk is. You know, people think systemic risk always is the market crash, but if they're printing money, if the market crashes, it stops, but what they're doing is still debasing the money. So, I'm not sure. And we don't have a massive increase in private sector debts right now either.
So, it's not a debt issue. So, what is it? Well, maybe it's the rise of AI. Maybe when let's we see this trend in vibe coding right now. People are shocked by clawed code and you can see it everywhere. You know, crypto people because nothing's going on are all vibe coding their own things, right? Even really well-known people in the AI space are like, "Oh my god, we can't believe what is going on here. What we can build with AI, with AI tools." So you get this dual world where we're going to bring AGI in sometime this year in some way, shape or form. Maybe we're there already, whatever. But that is going to be an investor. So what does that mean for equities? When you've got AGI is a better investor, it kind of takes human narratives out of markets after a while.
Mhm.
It it changes the structure of markets. But then you've got the change of structure of companies. Elon Musk said something very important two days ago. They're like anybody can create software now for zero cost. Yet the entire stock market is basically software companies. You that's where all the value is held. So if the value of software goes to zero because you could basically an AI agent can spin up a SAS platform it becomes a very complicated you know what is the stock market what is the value it captures for whom does it capture it how does it all work I don't know and so that's what I get to is somewhere there could be a lost it could just stop going up
because they stop debasing the currency because we have a productivity boom and we've got you know new demographics of robots an AI. So you've got a growing economy, but a stock market that maybe doesn't follow suit because it's not the stock market anymore.
Fair enough.
So, it's a comp I think it's I don't think this is the normal cycle. I think this is a complete change in everything which is what I call this kind of economic singularity. It gets to the point where technology is advancing faster than we can even grasp and that none of the infrastructure of what we built around humanity over the last, you know, several hundred years even is fit for purpose.
Mhm.
You know, how does venture capital work when you can raise instantaneous capital via a token? But then do you need venture capitalists or does the AGI do it instead? What does it mean to be a hedge fund manager? I mean, it's [ __ ] it's nonsense. Once you get past 2030, 2032, it's all it's all nonsense. Why would you start a company? Because somebody can copy it in seconds or an AI will copy it in seconds and extract more money from it than you. So, it changes the whole structure of everything. So, when you say what's the risk is we're going to be all in in equities when maybe equities don't serve much of a purpose. Now, does it crash? Well, maybe they don't need to add liquidity after that. So, in which case, they could crash. Or maybe it just stops generating returns and the returns on money come via AI in what it builds and it does, but it can build a business and close a business down in minutes. You know, it can capture opportunities in a in a very different time horizon because you don't have to fire people and you don't have to register a company. You don't have to all of the things that we all have to do if we want to build a business. it could just build something, offer it out there to the world, people use it, and as soon as the that opportunity goes away, it could just close it down. So, business becomes almost arbitrage.
It's interesting that you're that you're saying this because two days ago, I've uh done a podcast with Kureshi, the managing partner of Dragonfly. He is essentially saying the exact same thing. So at some point in time you will have AI and software cost go to zero which then changes the entire dynamic of literally anything like what are we going to do where's where's the business kind of the same as with internet but then it opened up a whole new floor for companies to exist etc etc but with AI it will create new companies and then continues to evolve and evolve and we don't need to do anything anymore. The thing that I wanted to ask before we go into into crypto is everyone is very much focused on the upcoming year like the business cycle is going to be well Bitcoin is going to boom um or not there are two camps um but what if what after the business cycle like what's going to happen then is that in your thesis the same as saying AI is going to be so fast advancing that it can break down the economy or perhaps inflation picks up again.
So I think we have one more cycle before that
and that's going to be the spectacular one. That's the blowoff top cycle because right now people are still cynical. They don't quite believe it all. So you know we saw like most of last year most institutional asset allocators were underweight tech. Oh it's a it's a bubble cycle. I mean there's no debt going into this thing apart from a few companies it's nothing but people just don't want to believe that this secular change this exponential change is happening but if we let's say we have a good year this year then let's say 2027 liquidity gets withdrawn a bit because we don't need to service any debts really that year so we have the typical kind of down year and let's say NASDAQ goes down 25 30%. And Bitcoin goes down 50 40 50 something like that and we start the money printing cycle again and Trump is ramping up to try and win the general election. We now know the playbook. Everybody's g and we'll have gone from where we are in AI today to where we are in AI by 2027 which none of us can even predict right now because it's just it's vertical takeoff. Everyone's just going to throw all their money at this.
Mhm.
And then we'll have the boom in solar and energy and nuclear and all of the other things around it. I mean, for me, it's got the all the elements of a full bubble blowoff
to come, but not this but not this cycle because people are too cynical about it still.
I just every time when I when I um look at the charts, I get the phrase the last dance kind of the Michael Jordan Netflix series which was the final time that he became champion. It's kind of the same like we are getting into the blowoff for crypto or the next phase of crypto. It's either this one or the next one.
Um, but it's going to be exciting at least.
Um, if we look at the past quarter, it has been very exciting in general. Where where were you during 1010? How did you experience that particular day where literally altcoins went to levels we would never expect them to see for a blink?
Where was I? I think I was at my girlfriend's place in Texas. It was just like I couldn't quite believe what was going on. But there again, I've seen a lot of this stuff before. We've had flash crashes in equities back in 2014 2014 2012 something like that. And we saw similar I mean major companies were down 80% because the markets didn't function properly. And we had almost an identical situation. So, I kind of seen it before. The issue is nobody could trade.
Mhm.
It was like and I didn't have any stable coins and it just taught me that is like you need to have some some stable coins on the side to be able to do this stuff.
Um, and so for me, I was trying to transfer money from my bank in the Cland, but this is a Friday night and it's like you can't get it in until the Monday and then it takes another three days to pro, you know, it's like [ __ ] me, five or six days to try and get money in. uh because those opportunities are are opportunities to buy. You know, has the secular trend changed? Has something actually changed? No. So, a price dislocation is actually the biggest opportunity you can find. But it taught people the horror was realizing how many people use leverage, you know, and I talked about this and talked about it and talked about it. It's like you even think that, oh, I'm just going to use 50% leverage, so nothing. and you think the market's not going to fall 50%. And then something like that happens and it does and you get liquidated because it's all in a smart contract. You're like, "Fuck."
Even if it it lasted minutes, you got liquidated. And there's nothing you can do about it.
Uh no. I mean, uh, it's funny enough that we we started our liquid fund somewhere in December and then during September, we were saying, "Hey, maybe we need to have a good plan for when the market starts to crash." And then I said, "Sure, I'll go on holiday. We'll we'll think about it on holiday and then we'll come back and say we make a plan." somewhere on a Saturday morning in uh Indonesia, I got a call and they uh the portfolio manager said, "You really need to look at the charts right now. It's this time you need to log in." And I checked the charts and I was like, "What the [ __ ] is happening?" And it's still a question of what broke down. But at least what we clearly know is that liquidity has dried up and the markets have been shaking since. Almost all of the altcoins have perfectly gone back down to the levels of the tent start to consolidate a little bit more. Right now, Bitcoin took took the correction in November, December. What was the aftermath of the crash in your opinion?
I don't know. And I don't want to get too speculative, but
Well, we can. for me. Yeah. Yeah. But for me, somebody ended up buying a lot of stuff that got liquidated, but the market maker APIs were basically closed. So, it was difficult at for a period of time for them to actually add liquidity. So, who bought it all? So in my mind the issue was really seen on Binance and some of the Asian exchanges and my guess is somewhere amongst whoever they had if your exchanges stop functioning and your market makers can't make prices at some point you have to do something. So, I don't know the structure of Binance and nobody knows it. You know, do they have their own market makers within somebody probably got a lot of inventory, way too much inventory because they had to. So, if you've got a lot of inventory, it's like a program trading desk in in equities that, you know, I used to work very closely with, they end up with a huge amount of inventory, they need to work it out over time. So, what you don't want to do is just dump it immediately. So you just kind of do it every day and try and not impact the market. But that would make sense why all of these altcoins went back down to that level because there's no a lot of people got carried out. There's no liquidity coming in the system. The entities or entity that bought a lot of this stuff now have to work out of the position. It takes time and I think that was the fe the feature of the the after October we saw that relentlessly in November and December. I mean almost every day.
Mhm. Yeah. It's like
now we thought it was a market maker. Yeah. People thought it was winter mute or whatever. I don't know who. Probably everybody got a lot lot of inventory. So maybe it was 10 different players with a lot of inventory that needs to unwind it because all retail investors got liquidated who were in leverage.
I mean if I look at the charts, yeah, it's just a staircase going down for all those altcoins until they reach the level of 1010 and then they're good to go. We've seen some altcoins starting to wake up like Sooie for instance have been done great in terms of some rebounces up.
Um, but Bitcoin is still stuck within the range of like 80 to 90K.
Yeah. And that's still because liquidity is not flowing. We have to go through the year end. All the banks have to do the window dressing. Now the SLR changes come in from January the 1st. But you know it's only January the 8th right now time of recording. So nobody's doing anything yet. So these things take time to work out. So you know, Bitcoin is just reflecting the fact that there's no actual real liquidity in the market right now.
Um, and when it comes in, it'll lift off and once it gets attention, it can play the catchup. Close those alligator jaws versus global M2 versus Global Liquidity versus NASDAQ versus, you know, historic parallels. I mean, it just dislocated from everything because of what happened.
How do you um how do you like pass on through this time when everybody on social media starts screaming at you, "Yeah, [ __ ] you for saying the banana zone and all those things."
Most people don't actually listen to what I say. So they don't listen to a long form podcast and they don't go on Real Vision and they don't read my stuff. So then they just selectively say something and they get angry and so then they they do it. It's like, you know, for [ __ ] sake, I put so much actual work out there that and for free and behind the payw wall in Real Vision, I do, you know, AMAs with Real Vision members. We do everything there to help people, but people don't want to be helped. And that's the issue. So, they want to blame somebody when it goes wrong for themselves. It's like, and I've always said, in fact, it says at the top of my Twitter thing is, I'm not a guru. You have to, you know, having been in financial markets for 35 years, things change. Forecasts don't always work. You know, as you rightly asked the question, what happens if the ISM doesn't go up? Well, you're going to have to change your plan, right? So, if liquidity gets withdrawn from the system and the government shuts down for the longest period of time in history, you have to change your plan. Now, my plan is I don't trade around stuff, so I don't care. My time is the cycle or multiple cycles. So, it doesn't matter to me unless I've got some cash and I can reinvest into the thing. But people's time horizons are all different. That's the other issue is because people want their money now. It's like money doesn't work that way. Only when you look back do you say, "Oh my god, I could have made that money in that period of time. Look at 2017, you know, you made 10x in six months." Yeah, but at the time was it obvious until it happened. No, you know, so you just don't know. Nobody knows. Nobody has a crystal ball. But I know that the work on the everything code is as close to a crystal ball as I can get. But it doesn't make it tick for tick perfect and it won't be. But it it'll get it directionally right.
I mean during 2017 I know a ton of people that sold during any of those 30% crashes thinking that it was over and then it took off. And it feels like we are in the same sort of pattern. Um I mean we've seen a 35% correction on Bitcoin and the question is where are we going to go to with the markets from here and there are two very big camps. The one that's saying the four year cycle is still active. We go to 50 60k and the one that's saying we still got one and a half to two years left maybe a little bit less and we are actually good to go. This is just a standard correction. I know that you're in the second camp, but what are the scenarios that you have for the coming period for the markets in general?
Look, 90% of all Bitcoin's price action is explained by global liquidity. So for that to be true that 2026 is a bare market year, it must be true that global liquidity is going to be falling. There is no evidence of that. If that were to be true, then we've got I mean we then kind of nuke the economy because you would be reducing global liquidity when the ISM is at 47 which is manufacturing is basically at a recession.
Yeah.
That that it doesn't happen that way. It's not going to happen in a year of the midterms of a very aggressively pro economic or pro business leadership. It just doesn't make sense. So for that to be true and we've got to roll all the debt, that means we're going to they're going to lose control of the bond market, blow up the banking system, blow up the stock market. It doesn't feel right.
Mhm.
It doesn't feel right. And with low inflation, relatively low inflation, why would they do it? So that's that's what's in Congress for me. So you have to say, oh, that correlation that has been in place since Bitcoin's existence at 90% correlation and 97 and a half% with the NASDAQ is false.
What um what do you think is um being well let's say Trump has been super positive about crypto? He has been doing a lot. We have seen the Genius Act. We are quite sure that even between the upload and the recording there might be the Clarity Act. But then there's the same sort of mantra happening. People have high expectations of Trump going into the office for crypto and then the reward is that the markets are crashing while fundamentally all the institutions are adopting crypto. What do you think his game plan is when it comes to crypto?
So his game plan is he got voted in. He was funded and voted in by the crypto lobby and the tech lobby.
Mhm.
So his job is to continue to give them what they want. So he's clearing the regulation, putting the path down, make it very clear that they're pro crypto. But then the crypto people are like, "Well, why is my number not gone up?" Okay, so let's think this thing through again. If liquidity is not flowing, where's that money going to come from? The institutions. But we haven't had the Clarity Act. So why would most of them do it? We get some. We saw ETF flows into Bitcoin and stuff like that. Great. But we haven't had the floodgates yet because it's not been cleared. So then we say, "Yeah, but the banks, they're all building on it." What have they actually launched? Nothing yet. They're just all starting to ramp up because the um the stable coin act came through. So they can start with that. then the Clarity Act needs to come through. So, we've got no liquidity and only the financial system kind of revving its engines to get going, but they're waiting for the checkered flag to be raised so they can start the race. And so, but everyone's like, "Well, I thought Trump was going to pump my bags." He's doing everything. He's telling you that they're going to roll the debt. They're going to use the liquidity through the banking system. They're going to give you fiscal stimulus. They're going to force rates lower. They're going to change the Fed chairman. They're going to do everything they can to pump your bags whilst giving you a regulatory green light. So, it's a patience problem again.
And on top of that, we have a use case for eat which has been a question for the past few years. As in right now,
it's never it was never for me. It was for the market. That's what I always say.
I'm like, it's always going to be the financial system that builds on ETH. Yes, they will use Salana. Yes, they'll use Swedi. Yes. Yes. Yes. But ETH is the [ __ ] Microsoft operating system in crypto that the financial system will use. There's the broadest density of talent. It has been battle tested longer than any other smart contract platform. And so, and it's got the scalable layer 2s. It gives them the ability to spin up their own chains and do all the things that they want to experiment with. So, yeah, I mean, it was blindingly obvious that this was going to happen.
Mhm. And actually I think since April when ET has hit that low, we are already into an ET market while nobody is actually seeing it. The stable coin supply on ETH has gone two acts last year. The amount of adoption on ETH is constantly growing. But then there's the fire or the question that's coming up or the debate where some people are saying yeah we need to value eat through the standard u valuation uh metrics that you need to do for any equity firm and then there is the network effects group of people that are saying yeah the actual revenue model comes in later when the actual adoption kicks in. That's the same with Amazon. It's the same with Meta formerly Facebook. it first starts to grow and then the revenue starts to come in.
Um, are we into an ET market and how do you see those valuations and the the entire discussion that is taking place right now?
So the network effects are gigantic in ETH but people don't understand. So the issue people get to is the layer 2s are robbing the layer one. It's not the case per se. The layer twos are built on top of the layer ones so you can handle more throughput overall. There's just excess capacity right now. But as the financial system builds on it, don't forget the financial system does quadrillions in trades every year, more than ETH could ever cope with even with all the layer twos. So once you start building a lot more usage of these chains, there'll be more batching to the base of ETH. ETH becomes more valuable as the security layer for the entire thing and the whole thing becomes much more valuable. But you're at that point where you've you've built a lot of inventory, but there's not that much use for the block space yet. So the question is, is block space demand going to grow or not? And by what you're hearing from the banking system is blockbased demand is going to grow dramatically. So in which case it acrru to the network and over time as these excess capacity fills up the value starts to appear across the entire ecosystem and people will understand.
Yeah, it's fair. And also E is most secure, hasn't had any outage, um most scalable, all those things.
Um, and it's not perfect, but nothing needs to be perfect for people to use it. It just needs to be proven
because they don't want people don't want risk.
Yes. Um, and as a venture capitalist, we always try to find the perfect project, but none of them are.
Invest into a team. It's kind of the same as a retail investor. If you get the opportunity to buy liquid tokens right now, you're also investing into teams and their perspectives for the future. And that brings me to you've been mentioning that not everything is going to go up. The markets might be moving into selective runs. If you go into this year and you expect the markets to pick up momentum, what are the narratives that you are looking out for?
So there is always the layer one narrative and it's the easiest one. What are the blockchains that people are going to use for many things? So in layer ones, we've got ETH, the big daddy. We've already talked about how that's going to work. Solana's pretty [ __ ] obvious that it's going to do well if block space demand increases and money comes in. And then you got to look at, you know, what other layer ones are out there that's being used in scale or earlier stage. And you've got a few out there. Um, Sui, Avalanche, there's a bunch. Okay. So that's a sector that's probably going to benefit because it never accrues to one blockchain. You know, we've seen it in cloud compute. We've seen it in all sorts. You know, every example ever, there's like five or six of these things that do well. Okay, great.
Then we've got, okay, what are the other narratives? It's clear that somewhere with AI and agents, there's something. I saw you had a tweet this morning and I've been thinking about it as well as tow and stuff like this, right? M >> What, how is that going to play? Um, that feels there's something interesting there, whether it's decentralized compute or decentralized AI, something around that will probably play out within this. Uh, what are the component parts? I don't really know. I don't really play a lot of these things. Privacy feels like it's going to be something important um as a narrative um, particularly with, you know, the EU being the way it is right now and, you know, and just the geopolitical world out there. I think we can see that, but we're also seeing chains like building privacy on-chain as well in different ways. So I think we see that narrative.
Then there's going to be the applications layer. You know, what is the big application layer outside of DeFi? I don't know what it's going to be, but there'll be something big that comes right there. There always is normally in a cycle. So we'll see the applications layer stuff um, that's kind of how I've looked at it. And then I, you know, the other one that I follow closely, which is also on ETH, which is the is that is digital art >> uh, which I think has another big component >> will be a will attract a lot of attention >> I mean um, lots of things on this, but first layer ones are definitely the most important one. And personally, as an investor, I take the largest chunk into that because without layer ones, there's nothing to be built upon >> but then you have a gazillion amount of layer ones taking or launching, being productive or not. So how, how do you navigate from your perspective and what are the metrics that you're looking for to say, hey, this layer one is actually being used?
And it's Look, it's really hard with early stage because people can game so many things. >> But what you're looking for is >> density of and consistency of, let's say, weekly active users, some measure of active users that is consistent over time because you get a lot of these spikes from gaming. You then want to look at what is the volume being done and how, you know, how much DeFi is being used, how much stablecoins are being run, stuff like that, you know, the basic plumbing of, you know, of of what makes chain activity. Then the density of attention, you know, who are the people involved, how much attention does it get online, you know, what do people say, how do they think about it um, and that needs to be consistent, that needs to be some consistency. Now, the other way of measuring it is also just looking at the total value transacted in that entire ecosystem, and that number should be growing over time as well. Obviously, in crypto, things move around a lot, but that needs to be growing over time at a significant rate once you start filtering for that. It's not straightforward, but, you know, hey, use ChatGPT, it'll help you a lot with this. You just ask it these questions and it will come out with answers for you and it'll give you that stuff. You know, it was suggesting to me that, yeah, if you want to use a dumb rule of thumb, is just look at the stablecoin volume, >> um, stuff like that or transfer values and number of active users, you know, and you can filter for all of this stuff pretty easily. I know, uh, Jamie Coots on Real Vision is building that onto the platform. So, there's going to be a whole dashboard. He already publishes this stuff, but we'll have a real-time dashboard for all of this on Real Vision as well. The caveat here is that the markets are so efficient that stablecoins can move around uh quite fastly. If there is a better yield somewhere out there, then usually money will flow to it. >> No, the reason why was because it was us using stablecoins. We're now giving it to credit card companies and banks. They're not going to go, "Oh, tomorrow I'm going to switch to bearer chain because it's cheap." It's just not going to happen. It's like they they build something and they run that. So I think the signal changes over time. It's not about the yield. It's about the the ability to move dollars around the system. >> Mhm. >> And so I think it's that also stablecoin activity within a chain itself from on-chain users is also a function of how much money is in that system, how's it being deployed, stuff like that. So I I do think there's a lot of signal from stablecoins. It's it's it's by no means everything. >> Mhm. >> But it is but it is an important signal. >> And the the sentence that I wanted to say after that was ultimately everything still goes back to ETH. And that's what you're seeing. Like the real ones that are building some great stuff mostly go into ETH. That's why the stablecoin supply goes up on ETH so much. That's why A is attracting so much TVL within the borrowing and lending protocol that they are, but yet price is not picking up.
You mentioned um AI and yes uh I'm interested into Bit Tensor. I like it a lot. Uh I'm also interested into Near, which I think you've been speaking about a little bit as well. >> That was also one that came when I did my ChatGPT deep dive and all of this. It came up as three chains that were undervalued. Now things changed and I did this a couple of months ago and it was like Sui, Near, and Avalanche. >> Mhm. >> Kind of interesting. I've also been doing a deep dive on Bit Tensor because the chart looks epic and, you know, I'm very deep down the AI rabbit hole. Um, and it plays into one of my theses. Does it outperform one of the other things? I don't really know. That's the issue is like it usually in a crypto bull market, it doesn't kind of matter unless you're lucky to get the really, you know, low market cap stuff. It doesn't really make that much difference if they all go up 10x, then you know. >> No, but I mean, if the thesis is that at some point in time AI will simply take over and AI and blockchain and robotics are a crucial category with each other, like if you use blockchain and you have AI, it's going to be inevitable. It will be used. So if that is the thesis, why not invest more into AI protocols that are building something because it's going to be the future anyways. Look, it's very early stage. We don't know how this is going to look. I mean, we don't even know how what bloody the the big foundational AI models are going to look like in three months' time, >> let alone what's going to be built in an on-chain community. We have no idea. One thing I kind of does go through my head and I don't know if it's absolutely correct or not, but stablecoins are not easily usable for agents at scale for micro-payments. And the reason being is the dollar doesn't denominate less than one cent. >> And so how do you make micro-payments? >> Yeah, that's true. Are they micro then? >> Who the hell knows, >> you know, at scale, your fridge is streaming to whatever it is to, you know, who knows how micro things will get. >> Mhm. you know, they're not micro right now because humans and human systems and infrastructure, but once you've got this infinitely fast ability to to transfer value and you have billions of AI agents transacting to do small things, then it feels like micro-payments, you know, real micro-payments matter. Streaming payments. They've not been possible in the banking system. Just not possible. >> True. But they should be in the decentralized world. >> Yeah, >> because it's super easy. Like a lot of tokens are even valued beneath one cent and it's super easy to transfer it anyways. It's all about the transferring at some point.
Also, >> uh, what I think is interesting is decentralized compute and storage. I mean, >> yeah, >> I'm living in the Netherlands. Um, we are getting bun flats with emergency packages because at some point in time the infrastructure is going to go down. So the government is stimulating us to get €200 and some food in store and some water because maybe we all are needing are needing to get like all these things because three days we can't use the infrastructure. That's how it works here in the Netherlands. But that also brings up the thesis for decentralized compute. >> How do you look at that? >> Decentralized compute is going to be a big force. >> Mhm. >> Um, a lot of there's so much demand for compute that there's almost endless demand and it's only going to go exponential. >> Yeah. >> So in which case, the more compute you can bring online, the better. The more decentralized it is, the more robust your system is. And we've seen this with AWS going down and, you know, um, Cloudflare going down, you know, it happens, you know, and the more robustness you can build in the system, the better systems you can build. So, it kind of makes sense. It's the same with decentralized AI. It's the same with decentralized money. It's all the same thing because if not, everything accrues to giants as well. And giants can be shut down. That could be manipulated by government. So you need the counterbalance. It's great that we've got these open AI giants and, you know, Google and all of these guys because they're pushing the frontiers of everything, but you need the counterbalance as well where they can't hold all the power. So it matters for everything. We will decentralize the power grids. I mean, you're doing it already in Europe via solar, right? It's becoming decentralized power grids. People don't really understand this yet, but that's really what we're doing. Uh, we're seeing data centers with their own power, which is decentralized power now. So we got power being built around that. We used to do it occasionally for car factories and stuff like that. So big power consumers, but we're going to decentralize the energy grid. We have to decentralize the compute. We have to decentralize the software. We have to, you know, so it's all it's all part of a mega trend.
If if we look back at 2026 at some point, um, how are we going to look back at this year and when would you say it's a successful year? We're going to get a pretty decent idea what the year is going to look like. After the first three months, if the liquidity thesis is correct, we should start to see markets moving. When we look back on 2026, hopefully we'll have made some good money out of our investments, but bigger than that, we'll be looking back saying, "How the [ __ ] did we get here with AI?" I mean, I know it keeps consuming every conversation, but this is the biggest technology humanity will ever invent. It's the last technology we'll ever invent. I mean, it's so big that when we get to the end of 2026, you'll look back and go, I cannot believe what I used to do a year ago and I thought was advanced is now dumb. I mean, if you go back and think of 2024, what were you using? Most people were barely using ChatGPT and then they were like, it hallucinates too much and it's [ __ ] and I can't use it. Now everybody's just oneshotting a no a working platform, oneshotting it with an English prompt and the thing builds it. It's like holy [ __ ] I mean, I've been I've been on the anti-AI for a very long time, just saying, "Yeah, it's not going to matter." And then I started watching some podcasts. Uh, I think I've watched one with Roman Yolski about hi and I started to understand the concept and how big it could be. And it ends up that right now I'm using a lot of time on a day, I think multiple hours where I just put in the correct prompt or I try to prompt it as good as I can and it gives me back the information that in no way I could have Googled it or could have asked someone or whatever. It's increasing our company's efficiency by enormous amounts. So that's also why I thought, well, I want to be more connected. They want to be more invested into AI because if this is going to accelerate at this speed, we have no job in three to four years from now. >> No. And you know it's literally cannot be done by Google as you say, you know, by Google search engine. >> Mhm. Because you can go into it and say, hey, I've been thinking about this concept and it, it will come. What do you think? It'll come back and go, yeah, it doesn't work because of this, but here's all the people who have been working on this and this is similar to this theory, but if you think about it that way, then you go back and go, yeah, I'm okay, that makes sense. Let's move down. This whole world opens up for you of knowledge. It's got all the knowledge of humanity on this damn thing, basically. And so everything is there and its pattern recognition is now incredibly good. >> So pattern recognition meaning the way that we think as humans, it's really good at doing this now, joining all the dots. It does it for investment thesis really well, probabilistic outcomes really well. It passed that a while ago. I now stick in charts and say, "What do you think?" You know, I put in 10 charts of a particular asset and the, you know, the asset versus another asset, all of this stuff, and then some macro stuff. Say, look, what do you think? And the more it gets to know you, mo knows how you think and the kind of things that matter to you, and it doesn't become this self-reinforcing lie, it just becomes having an incredible thought partner who helps. It's amazing. >> It's it's like if you use AI and I start to use it in a way where I inverse the conversation, so I ask the AI to ask me the questions so the AI can improve the content that they need to put out to me. And if you start using the AI even more, every time when you talk to someone, you start to believe that that is an AI as well, but then just a different version. It's just weird how the concept of like conversations change. >> Yes. And what would felt would have felt like it was insanity two years ago of you basically having a friend in a box that is the most knowledgeable person on earth who prompts prompts you with ideas. Hey, but look at it this way. You know, when I was doing the Metaf's law analysis with it, it's like, yeah, well, you might want to think about adding stablecoins as a I'm like, okay, thanks mate. You know, you've got this genius in a box that's become your friend. Mhm. >> If I'd have told you that 3 years ago, you thought I was insane. Now it's normal. >> I'm talking I think I'm talking more to uh to Chat TV or to Claude than my fiance, to be fair. >> Well, this is the other thing. It's like I had a bunch of family and stuff here and the conversation was like, you know, sometimes is, you know, once you've had your family around you for a while, you're like, I've had enough of this. And then you can go into your world of ChatGPT and you can start having really deep meaningful conversations about really interesting stuff. I'm finding it hard to bother to read a book >> really >> because the whole knowledge of the world is there. You don't really need to read books. And the world and almost anything Mark Andreessen was talking about this. There's like almost anything written in the last 10 years is so out of date, it's no point. So you're either in AI world or history world, but you know, there's like >> you can find anything about anything. So any knowledge you want to go down. You're a chess player? Well, talk to ChatGPT. It's the best chess player in the world. You know, it knows how it works. You, whatever it is. >> Yeah. >> And people haven't figured that out yet. It's like, why even read books when you've got this that can tell you every knowledge about anything you've ever wanted to know. It's interesting because also in terms of health checks, like I've got some stuff with my stomach and I've got some eczema and for the people that are watching, they know that I've been struggling with it. So I've taken some different routes, going to the hospital, blah blah blah. Now taking more and looking more towards my food. But then I did some checks and the next appointment is going to be on the 20th of January and I made that at the last week of December and I was like, yeah [ __ ] that. I'm not going to wait a month until I finally can hear some stuff that's probably not even going to be correct. Let's just try to put it into ChatGPT and see what it says. And in terms of learning curve, it's just like ridiculous. Every day you put in the data that comes out of your health data and >> how your day progresses and it gives you training tips. It gives you food tips. Every food that you put into there is going to be good or not. And I just did it as a test and until date, I've got more progress than what I've had in the past three years by just using AI and prompting it correctly. So the like it's most people don't even realize how big this thing is. >> So I totally agree. I mean, I use it for for literally everything. I my girlfriend uses it to take care of plants. So, she's growing a coconut um and she's she just takes the photo every week of it of and says to chat, "What what do I need to do? Do I need to change the water now? How's it going? When do I plant it because it's actually in water?" Stuff like that. And then you see there is an instance of Claude that is growing a tomato plant and it looks after it and cares for it and gets worried when things go wrong because Claude has got that personality. >> Mhm. >> And it is using another kind of um machine to water the plant to regulate. So, it's got humidity control, water control, light control, blah blah blah. And it's like Claude's like, "Time to wake up now." Um, and turns on the light switch to the thing, then measures the, you know, what it looks like, what how the plant is growing, and then measures all the oxygen, stuff like this, and keeps everything in measure. And it's looking after the plant like a human. It's extraordinary. And it's it's running on on X. There's somebody posted it every I can't remember who who the person is of Claude growing a tomato plant. >> Probably there's going to be >> no human involvement whatsoever. No human involvement. >> That's crazy. That's crazy. It's just getting getting into levels that we as you said a few years ago you would have like fantasized about this, but no, not in the world that this is going to be the standard from here on.
Um, if we look at the current market and say, okay, this cycle is going to take one year, one and a half year, what is your game plan going into the end of the cycle? Are you going >> This is the difficult thing because this is where it it's it's very difficult for me because each different person have their own needs and objectives. Different people have different risk tolerances. When I didn't reduce anything last cycle, I bought more in 2022 and people Yeah, but people can't wear a drawdown. I'm used to. I've done two or three of them in crypto. It's fine. Do you buy it? So, you know, do I want to take some money off the table because I need to buy some stuff? Yes. But that's not my signal of like it's the end of the cycle. I just don't do it like that. But everybody else has a different risk tolerance and they have different needs and they don't like the the drawdowns and they don't have the money to add to it. And th this is where it becomes really hard because everyone expects me to be like the font of [ __ ] knowledge when it comes to this. And I don't know, you know, I'll take some money off because I think my money's gone up enough that I can go and buy something that I want to buy with it, like a house or whatever it is, right? >> Mhm. >> It's like, but that's it. It's like, where else do you put your money? Okay, you step out of the money for a year, market for a year, and you avoid the down cycle. We Yeah, but I've also [ __ ] that up as well in the past. It's not easy to do. So >> yeah, I mean >> I don't know. But I mean, certainly, you know, within the asset management business that I run, we use we'll use the macro overlay to reduce risk significantly. So we switch out of being in long any hedge funds into market neutral hedge funds to dampen the volatility of the portfolio, but still while getting returns. So, you know, will I do that with all of my money? Don't know. But, you know, some some kind of idea along those lines. I think in indeed, people misunderstand the fact that you probably don't need to sell the portfolio to keep on living because, in the first place, you don't need to invest all your money into the assets um, otherwise you're like completely [ __ ] but some people are doing that um, I've got all my eggs into crypto as well. And so >> yeah, but I've got cash flows, right? You got cash flows. The point, right? That's the big difference. You know, I've got three or four businesses. >> Mhm. Yeah. >> And so they they create cash flows. So then you're not living off your investments. Your investments, you know, what you should then be thinking is how much, how can I jam as much money into my investment? I don't see Warren Buffett trading out with the cycle or Jeff Bezos. Yeah. Hedging his shares every four years. No, you just let it compound. If you can buy more, you buy more. That's how you should do it. But people can't do it. I mean, and it's also like timing to go out of the markets is usually super difficult because in that last part is where you make the most u but on the other hand, the risk increases >> where you lose the most. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The risk increases too. So in the sense of not like giving financial advice, but if we go into that stage and we are seeing a lot of returns into the markets, what advice would you give to a retail investor? Would you say go off the risk curve and take a little bit portion off? >> Minimize regret. Only you are in control of that. What is your level of regret if your asset pool gets half tomorrow? How much regret will you feel? So once you start to get where you start checking your P&L and start thinking, you start, you know, looking for houses or cars or watches, whatever it is, that's the point. Generally, you should take some off. >> Yeah. >> And take some off over time. I mean, I remember in 2017, I took, you know, I bought Bitcoin at 200. I sold out at 2,000. Thought I was a [ __ ] hero. It went to 20,000 7 months later and I then bought it back near the bottom of No, in the not I didn't buy it at the bottom. I bought it in the COVID crash. >> Mhm. >> But the bottom was like three and a half thousand. So it's still above where I sold out. But I bought it at between 6 and a half and 10. So, I would have been I figured out if I just left my money in the market would have been better. Or even better is if I just added to my bet every time there was a down market, you just compound return so much faster because you have more money in the market when it goes up.
As a uh final question, I wanted to ask um what book you are reading or what book you would give as an advice for someone that's interested into understanding more about macroeconomics and investment thesis. But I'm going to change the question into what kind of prompt would you advise to someone to put into ChatGPT to learn more about the market. So really the best way to do it and we've actually do this on Real Vision. Is we have an AI watch a video, read the transcript, or just prompt the thing to ask about the video. So people are watching this. What the [ __ ] does RA mean by that? Is he right? Is he wrong? How else could that be? And so that becomes a superpower for you to learn because you can ask questions of content. Before you had to figure it out, sit there, go, I don't really understand that. There's no reason not to. So you can just go into like the Real Vision AI and just say, explain like I'm five, what the [ __ ] RA was talking about, and it'll tell you. Even better, there's a whole RL bot in on Real Vision where you can talk to me in my own voice and ask me the questions. So there's almost no reason why any content, however dense, however difficult, theoretical physics, just go and ask it. And so that becomes your superpower that all information opens up to you because it doesn't have to be for specialists. It can be for you by just using the magic box and asking it a question. Um, so that's what I would do. I would just find content that you find interesting from people talking about stuff that you don't quite understand and then prompt Claude or chat to you.
It's been super insightful to talk to you about the markets and also about everything with AI. Didn't expect to last about AI for so long, but uh, it's been fun to talk to you. Where can people find you and what's going to be your next event where you're going to give a keynote, if there's any? Yeah. Um, the everyone can find me at um ralgmi on X. I think most people know that by now. Uh, on Real Vision is where you can find my work. Um, so realvision.com, you can join it. It's free. Um, and there's a superpower. The AI is there. There's the whole community giving you information, giving you trade ideas, not just from me, but the entire community. It's incredible. Um, and our next event actually is in Miami, where it's sunny and warm and not snowy like it is in Holland right now. And it's in Miami. I think it's on the 22nd, 23rd, 24th of January. Um, and it's called the Crypto Gathering. And I'll be there doing a live drinks with RA, which should be a total [ __ ] show. >> All right, that's going to be fun. I can't wait to be in the sun again. I haven't seen it for a long time. >> This is why you've got eczema. You just need to move to a sunny country. All right, RA, thank you very much for being part. I hope the next one is going to be in person. >> Yeah, perfect. All right, my friend.