Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Sunday, November 23rd brief. It is 9:09 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday and the day before, given that I did not make a video brief yesterday. I simply made a video about the bot. So I invite you to watch it, I'll put it here. We will look at it quickly so that you understand the positions and so on a little better. Frankly, it's something that is really interesting because you can see that all the positions are taken perfectly. We see for example that this short was taken perfectly, this long perfectly. Then, we see that we are potentially entering a fake dump, but it doesn't get fooled, it goes long directly afterwards. So, we really see that there are very interesting things. And afterwards, we see that well, it also got the short. So, this is really, really very, very interesting because the performance is exactly the same. We are in a candle close. So, this simply means that the trades are taken at exactly the same moment. I invite you to watch the video I made yesterday for more details on this. There are applications open and of course there are questions about why I am making this available for free and so on. You can imagine that if there is a limited offer, it's not free. So, take a little interest and watch the video carefully.
Technically on Bitcoin, we have reached a point where we are currently rather bullish. So logically, we should be able to bounce back a bit and I think at a minimum, we could reach $88,000 to $91,000. Now, if we start to go above $93,000, we can go much higher. And currently, we have just turned bullish on H4. So that's rather interesting. Now, the goal will be to know if there is an interest in making a fake to simply go back down. So that's where the data comes into play.
Regarding economic news, next week, expect quite a bit of movement. We are approaching the end of the week before Thanksgiving and so on. We will have an early market close on Friday. The United States will close markets on Thursday. So, it's likely to move a lot before that. Especially since on Tuesday, we have the main retail sales at 2:30 PM. We also have consumer confidence, the Conference Board. We will also have the quarterly GDP on Wednesday at 2:30 PM, weekly jobless claims at 2:30 PM, the core PCE which has a direct impact on inflation and consequently on the consensus for the next FOMC meeting at 4 PM on Wednesday, and also crude oil stocks and new home sales. So, Tuesday and Wednesday are very important days, especially Wednesday, where we are likely to have a lot of volatility in the markets. So, you will need to be careful at that time.
On CryptoBubble, what we see is a rebound on Bitcoin. So, we have a rebound on the Alts, notably Monero, Zcash, Mix, Dash, Cake, Aero, Quant, which are all gaining between 10% and 13%, so really interesting. But in any case, the Alts are regaining some color for now.
Regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that it's very calm on open interest. We have a total lack of interest in open interest. So, this means that people are closing their positions, they are not necessarily opening new ones. We see it clearly, we have been completely bearish on open interest. There is a total lack of interest. However, we still have quite a few positions, and we see that we still have quite a few positions that have opened up, and these are still, in my opinion, shorts, given that logically on this dump, if we have an open interest that falls with, I'll switch to H1 so you understand better. If we have an open interest that rises with a falling price, logically these are shorts. And here, we have a lot of liquidations to be targeted above. And so, it is not improbable to have a short squeeze before potentially setting a top to go much lower if we were in a bear market. So, this is really within the plan if we are in a bear market and going lower. So, I prefer to prioritize that as long as we don't turn bullish on daily. But, in my opinion, we will have a good week, a good start to the week now. We'll see if it holds. In any case, what is certain is that there are a lot of shorts to liquidate.
Regarding liquidations, what we see is that if we simply go to $94,000, we liquidate $1.6 billion. Whereas if we go to make a new bottom, for example at $79,000, we would liquidate $750 million. So, this means that it is much easier to have a short squeeze rather than a long squeeze. Simply because the positions that close become buyers in the market and consequently they push the price up. If, in addition, we have spot buying and so on mixed in, then logically it's very simple to go back to around $94,000. If we look at one month, it's the same thing. We have almost liquidated everything that could be taken below, and we have clusters almost everywhere. The first cluster is at $94,000, the second at $98,000, and the bulk of the cluster is at $112,000. If we go there, we liquidate almost $6.5 billion. So, it's quite substantial. This doesn't mean we will go there, it simply means that we have a complete interest in targeting liquidations upwards, because if we look here, at $80,000, we have between $400 million and $700 million in liquidations to target. However, if we just go to $98,000, we have $3 billion to liquidate. So, clearly, there is a currently bullish interest.
Regarding liquidations in the last 24 hours, it wasn't huge. We liquidated $217 million. If we look at what the whales are doing, the whales have started to reaccumulate this movement, but very slightly. We are not talking about massive purchases, we are really at the beginning of a reaccumulation. In my opinion, two whales have bought back, and that's not what defines a completely bullish movement for us. Retail investors are continuing to accumulate slowly, but they are still a bit hesitant. It's the same thing, it follows the price completely, we don't necessarily have divergence, and micro-whales too, we have a bit more buying from micro-whales, but again, we don't have enormous divergence between what's happening with whales, micro-whales, and retail investors, and the price. So, this means that derivative contracts are not doing much currently, and so we could simply expect movements with the spot market. So, I don't think we will have excessive bullish or bearish movements today. I think we could have one during the week with the economic news.
Technically, what I think is that we should turn bullish again. We don't really have an interest in making a lower low, except to target key zones between $67,000 and $72,000. So, this simply means that if we have to dump and revalidate another trend change here, it would logically mean we would go back to look for an FVG to then go back to the lower zones to reach $70,000. On the other hand, as long as this zone, this lower zone of $80,500 holds, logically we should continue to go up and we could at least reach $94,000 or even $98,000. And this is really interesting because currently we have validated our trend change here. We have an H4 OB here to protect the price. We have just filled the FVG here. So, logically, we don't really have an interest in going back below $83,000, below $83,400, except to target the OTE zone. But, we see that we don't have an FVG, we don't have anything in H4. Let's switch to H1 to see if there are any zones of interest to target below. But again, we see that clearly we had an equilibrium here. This could be a zone where we simply want to liquidate to move on, but currently I don't really see an interest in going much lower. We have our trend change here, our MSS here, we come back into the FVG, we are rejected, and we can move on. So, clearly, there is no real bearish interest currently. So why not even try a long to target $98,000? I know that many in the school and in the public group are currently in long positions, and I think it could be interesting to keep these positions and potentially target $98,000 at a minimum. So, this is really interesting. I think we can easily reach either this zone or that one if we return there, but currently, either try a scalp to then target the liquidities we have here. This would give an RR3. Otherwise, to play it safe, but this is more for intraday or swing trading, we would be on this. So, it would be an entry now with a stop at 8500 to target $98,138. Logically, this is something that would be quite easy to do. It would also give the OTE zone of this movement. If I trace it, it would give the OTE zone of this movement. And then, we would go back to target the first liquidations. We would retest the trendline that we had here and also retest the true daily boss that we made here. So, in my opinion, this trade is rather interesting.
I hope this video was enjoyable. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment on what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves.