Transcription
So, the first thing that you know, you must always pay attention to is, you know, something that I stress on a day-to-day basis is SMT. Right? Wherever the market turns, there was always SMT right before an expansion move. You, you can't show me, you know, a price leg that expands without it. It's just not there. There will always be SMT divergence, right?
So, right here, even at the top, right here, some of you, right now, you, you're probably looking at this and being like, "But there was an SMT here." No, SMT was present here, right? You're, you're probably seeing a person who, above this high here, same thing here, and the same thing here, which is incorrect. So, right now, if I remove the wicks, you'll be able to see SMT right here, right? You'll see price closed above this high. Remember that the closes are more important than, you know, wicks just running above. It's better to be focused on the closes and just focus on wicks alone, right? 'Cause remember, wicks are just gaps, and most of the times, wicks are just manipulation, right? So, right here, I just removed these two so you guys can see, right?
So, the purpose of backtesting is just going back, you know, looking at old data and trying to figure out what is the reasoning behind the reversal of price, right? What, what is the similar characteristic, right, of price that's usually present whenever it reverses? And, you know, you need to do this because by doing this, you will be teaching yourself, right? And the charts will be teaching you as well. So, most of the knowledge or most of the information that you will pick up in regard to the market, you know, the "aha" moments that you will have, you know, you'll get them by going through old data and backtesting, which is, you know, what we're doing right now. This is backtesting. Backtesting is not using the replay button. No, this is backtesting. You know, you want to see this working, you know, in hindsight, right? And then you trust it enough, enough after doing it enough times, and then you'll be able to apply it to, you know, real time, as we've been doing, right, since we began.
So, right here, right, I took off the wicks of the charts. You can see right here, price failed to break above this high. Right here, price broke above this high, closed above it, right? And here, price failed to break up this high as well, right? And another important thing to realize is, right, the strongest SMTs occur between three asset classes that are closely related. So, for example, right, if you were focused on, for example, the Forex market, you would have the DXY right here, you know, EU here, and GU here, or whichever, you know, order you would want to have them in. But you want to have at least three, right? If you're trading gold, you could have DXY, gold, and silver, right? And so on. And if you're trading, you know, crypto, like crypto, then you can use Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, right? But, you know, the best, you know, market, in my opinion, you know, that I'm best with, whereas I can find something to do on a weekly basis, sometimes on a daily basis, is the Futures market, right? It's more accurate and, you know, it's just amazing.
So, right here, okay, I'll turn the wicks back on, and this is exactly what you want to be doing, right? Just going through your charts and looking for these things. So, right here, we had price, right? We're focused on the closes, right? Ignoring the wicks, right? Focus on the closes. That's what's important. Don't make the wicks distract you. So, right here, we had price trading to close above this high. Same thing over here. And here, we had price close above this side, right? This right here would not make me bearish. Why not? I would need to see a closer range SMT, right? Which, you know, would occur, occurred right here, which is why we had price falling this much, right? And as you guys can remember, I, I always said that the asset class, class which fails to break above the high before, you know, SMTs form, or the asset class which forms a failure swing, for example, this one and this one, it will fall more than the one which broke above the high, right? And then after this, right, this large range SMT, which is what I call it, right, we had price trade into this fair value gap right here, right? And to today, you know, we are not, like, you know, trying to predict price or anything. We do that on Sundays, right? Sundays or when we do that. Right now, we're just backtesting. We're just looking at old data, showing you how I actually do it every day, right? So, we had price trade into this fair value gap, failed to break above, you know, the, the high of the New York session during the afternoon session, right? So, this right here would be sequential SMT, right? So, this again is another SMT right here, right? Then, right here, we had price failed to break above of this high as well, right? Taking into this order block right here. And then here, we had price trading above this high, right, while closing above it as well, right? So, you need to see a large range SMT, right, for the small range SMT to be confirmed, right? Right here, this would be turtle soup, right? And, you know, if you, this wasn't much of a move, right? And, but, you know, it was a move, right? And then, if we even go back here, right, right here, there was SMT as well. Anytime you see price expand, there's SMT. SMT confirms everything. Right here, you can see it confirms this fair value gap, it confirms price run above this high, it confirmed this order block right here. This is what you need to be focused on, right? This will give you an edge, right? This is literally the magic behind most things, right? And I'll read a question right now. Then, day, when would you choose to use wick for SMT or body for SMT? Just focus on using bodies, right? Most times, whenever the bodies are there, you'll see wicks, right? And, and there's, and then there will be hidden, you know, SMT, whereas just like this one, right, where you had price failed to break, close above this close, and then right here, you had price close above this one, there was SMT. So, like, just focus on the bodies, right? And whenever you have price wick above, you know, the previous high, you know, break up of a high and close above it as well, like this one, then you would turn to the asset class with which, you know, when, which failed to go above the previous high, right? So, whenever you see, like, price trades above a high, then you would look to trade on, like, a fair value gap with this, these asset classes, right? So, I'll clean the charts up somewhat. So, even tomorrow, you know, we'll, like, be touching on how to, well, maybe not tomorrow, maybe like Wednesday, how to anticipate SMTs, right? Just pretty easy, right? So, we had price failed to break about this high here. Right here, we had the same thing, right? But here, price break above, broke above this one, all right? So, this is what you should be spending your time doing, right? Because once you understand the concept of SMT, right, you need to understand this first, right? People usually do it backwards, right? They study FBGs, or they study order blocks, or they study turtle soup, but you're not going to know which one is fake, right? Which order block is fake, which fair value gap won't work unless you apply this, right? And right now, we're talking about, you know, high probability price reversals, right? Where you can, you know, you can just trade by just, you know, trying to take every fair value gap, but you won't have a high hit rate, right? So, you focus on this, and then apply everything else, you know, that we've talked about so far on this. Apply everything with this here as well. You can see, remember we talked about this prior? See, isn't it just, it's crazy that every time, you know, we have an expansion, there's SMT there? So, this is literally backtesting. You go back, right? This will, this is, this is like intended to build your confidence in using concepts, right? You need to see it repeating over and over and over. And what's the best way to do that? By looking at old data, right? We've used these things with live data before, right? You know that. So, right here, we have SMT again, and you need at least three asset classes, right? And price will, whenever you have, you know, two out of the three asset classes, which is why I say it's better to use three, you can use two, of course, you can, but it's better to use three because whenever you have two out of the three asset classes failing to break below a low like this, right here, then you know we're prone to have more explosive price action, right? So, for example, whenever you see this, right, price break below a low here, and we had, we have failure swings here, then you would more than likely, you know, want to be within these assets, you know, to get an explosive move. And what's the first thing that you would do? You would wait for this to happen, right? And you want to see price break above the, right, break above an order block, which is, which would be this candle right here, or this candle right here, right? NQ is the cleanest, so let's just use NQ. So, price failed to break below this low. There was SMT. Price traded above this candle, right? You can enter, you know, anywhere within this candle and put your stop below this low, which is a swing low. So, for example, this will be your stop, right? And this is how you backtest. And this candle right here is where your zone would be, where you would look to enter, right? So, high probability order blocks, you'll find them after, you know, price has a failure swing. And the only time a failure swing is confirmed will be when there is SMT, right? And you have two asset classes failing to break below a low while the third one breaks below the low, which confirms the SMT, right? So, on this candle, once you had price just wick below this candle and, you know, close above, you know, this candle's open, you would turn to one of these to get an explosive price move. Whereas if you wanted to buy below this low, you could, or even if you wanted to trade with this asset class, you could as well. So, you could even buy below this low. You can buy, you could buy when price traded in this candle, right, putting your stop below this low, right here. But your stop must be below a swing low, right? Which is what this candle would be, right? This low is lower than the one to the right and lower than the one to the left. Also, it closed a fair value gap entirely, right? So, we wouldn't expect price to go below this low after, you know, digging into this fair, fair value gap and tapping into the open of this order block right here, right? So, also here, we had price closing into this fair value gap, and then we had this fair value gap left open, right? And this is something else that, you know, you'll glean. There are times when, you know, you'll be waiting for a price to close into your fair value gap and then, you know, you'll be waiting and then just, you know, runs, drops, you know, fails to break below this low which you were waiting for because you wanted to buy here, right? And just continue to run. This is usually what happens, right? Right here, you can see price trade into this fair value gap right here, while not closing these ones as well, which is a part of the SMT, right? So, whenever you have one asset class, through this close, the fair value gap, you know, create SMT while trading below or low, the, the other asset classes are not prone to get their fair value gaps closed, right? And we go on. Okay, so even right here, let's do this. We had this price section right here. Why did I do this? Clean the charts. So, right here, when we had this price section right here, you'll see this [Music] was this was last week's CPI release, right? Where is it? Right here. Probably got to use this so I don't get mixed up. So, even right here, right, you guys will see SMT when CPI was released. So, right here, we had price failed to break above this high. This one did, and this one did as well. So, we had price break above this high. We had price also close above this high as well, right? This was CPI, right? So, this was, this would be the, you know, Q1 of the New York session. This would be Q2 of the New York session. So, we had accumulation, manipulation, and distribution, right? So, all within this right here, we still had the hidden SMT divergence, right? Right here, which is usually present, right? So, this is like, just a filter to help you spot big SMT, right? So, right here, we had price break above here, right here. Right here, we had price break above here, but we also had price close above this high, right? And close above this close as well. Can see right here. Look, we had price failing to even wick above this high while closing below this low. This is SMT. It's not just the wicks, right? You got to be focused on the closes as well. And this was CPI last week where we expected price to go down, right? So, you want to be mostly focused, I'm, I'm going to say this again, on the bodies, right? So, as you guys can see, even right here, right before CPI was even released, was released on this candle, right? We had price close above this high. You know, this was a sign. Price closed above this high. And once we had price wick here, just, you, you, you see what happened. And you will always find this, right? This will always be there whenever price reverses. Since you, since we're already here, I think I should share something else as well. Okay, so this right now, since, you know, you guys have been here for so long now, not used to talking this long, yes, hidden SMT is fractal. Everything is fractal. So, this is a way, you know, to, to know where, when to expect SMT, right? So, I'll take my fibs right now, right? And you, you need, you need a range, right? Which price has broken down, you know, through the 50% of the range and shifted the market structure as well. So, this is something new as well, which we'll go deeper into. So, right here, you know, we need a, we need a swing low and a swing high for a range to be confirmed, right? And this is, right, the only reason why we would even look at these ranges right here is because of this one, right? So, we have price for range, then break below the 0.5% whereas here, right, price didn't break [Music] below the 50% of the range as yet. Same goes for, for the D. Right? Was a mistake. The same goes for the D. Can you see this? I've never done this before. Have you? Right? So, by looking at this right here, this gives you more insight to price, right? And you need, you can't just be looking at one asset class, you know, to see this. So, right here, by just looking at this, you know, we can expect price to at least move here, right? So, while we had price making this high, we could, like, be expecting to short here and take profits below this low, which would be below 50% of this range that was formed right here. We had price shift market structure by breaking below this low right here, right? Breaking below this low, came back up into the fair value gap, created an SMT, then it fell. Now, right, if we are expecting SMT to form, which one of these asset classes would you expect to run below the low? Which one would you expect to form, which tool would you expect to form a failure swing, right? So, just by looking at this, if price runs below this low, then we wouldn't be expecting this to run below this low, right? We will be at least expecting to run below this one, but probably just, like, tap into the wick or something, then we could, we would be probably continuing higher, right? On a short-term basis, right? Um, but you should be gleaning from this. It's not just, you know, knowing what price is going to always be doing, right? You, you just want to be, you know, be, be, be able to, you know, find setups that, you know, you could pull at least three R's, right? Three, four, you know, even two works, right? But you need high probability setups, right? You, you want to be on price action. You need to know more times than not what price is going to do, right? And things like this will help you, right? So, right here, right, this low right here, you could say this is the drawn, the drawn liquidity at the moment, right? And when, and if price goes below this, under there, SMT, which would be likely if price goes below here, then, you know, you could be looking to do something, right? If there is a lower range SMT after this, remember what we were talking about, right? And vice versa, right? You would, you could do the same thing with your fibs, even, you know, with this high right here, so you could do this as well, right? And you could be looking for which, right, which asset class is closer than the high and which one is not. So, if we have price break above this high, then we could be doing the same thing with the fibs, right? So, most, most times when I am telling you guys that I expect SMT to form, I, I'm usually doing this, but I don't use the fibs, right? I just use the fibs so you guys can see or you guys can use it to practice, right? After a while, you will not have to look at fibs, you, you won't have to draw rectangles or anything like that. You just have your charts like this, right? So, I just look at price, I realize this one is, you know, it broke below the 50% of this range, just closer to this low. This one hasn't broke below 50% of this range as yet, and the same goes for this. Also, what would, you know, incline price to fall more? The fact that there's SMT, there's SMT, and there's SMT. You know, why wouldn't you expect price to reverse as yet? Because, you know, there's no lower time frame, there's no SMT here. You need SMT for, for price to reverse. You need SMT for price to break above this high, right? You need SMT for price to even go above this high. And even if price, you know, reversed, then you, you guys can see that this fell a lot more than these. Which, if you take, you know, if a, if a swing low formed here, for example, and you took your fibs again and you did this with this low, right? And price did what we were just doing, you know, failed or fail, failed to go to the 50% of this range, but here we had price above 50% of its range, then we could expect SMT there. All right, it doesn't matter, you know, which one you trade. The ones that, you know, create failure swings will give you a much more explosive move, but you can even trade the turtle soup, right? It doesn't matter. Price broke, you know, below here for NQ, you know, it doesn't matter what happens, right? I usually trade NQ because I love NQ, right? NQ is just the best for me. So, yes, um, now I'll just answer some of your questions. I'll spend like another six minutes answering questions. So, if you're watching the recording, you don't want to hear me blabbing, going off about, you know, things that, you know, you probably don't care about, then now you can just, just stop watching. You can just turn it off, and I hope that you have a wonderful weekend. Could you explain a failure swing? Okay, uh, we'll do that again. Okay, a failure swing again. This is it. So, here, price failed to break above this high. This is a failure swing here, right? Price also failed to break above this high. This is a failure swing here. Price broke above this high, right? This was a stop hunt. This is not a swing. So, price running above these highs right here, while this price failed to do so, right? You need to have at least, you know, three, even two would work, but three is better, closely related asset classes, right? What do I mean by that? DXY, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq. They move in the same direction on a normal day, right? On a regular day, they should be doing the same exact thing. So, whenever they're out of sync, that's a crack in correlation. So, right here, we had price failing to break above this side. That right there is a failure swing. What confirms this? Whenever you have a closely related asset class doing the opposite, bar breaking above, you know, its previous highs, that is a failure swing. Was that clear enough, or do you need me to like explain again or show you something else? What can you confirm an entry in a higher timeframe FVG by, you know, using what we were talking about today, right? By going through all charts, right? You want, you want to be looking at where FVGs were respected. You, you more times than not see SMT there after some time, right? In charts like, you, you guys can see my charts aren't like the most colorful, like, no, it doesn't make sense, you know, to have to be marking every up close candle, every order block, every fair value gap when you can just have a few lines on your chart. Good, nice, nice to hear that you finally understand. What are your opinions on TA? DA? I'm not sure what that is. On, for example, GU, EU, and GU, when it occurs on one of them, which one, or how do you pick one? I explained that, Daniel. You can, if you rewatch, you can, you'll expect, you'll hear, you know, me talking about that for sure. Most of you know the things that you guys ask or are asking, I explained, right? And, you know, AMD, AMDX, and so on, you know, it's usually, you know, a, it's usually put in place by SMT, right? So, if you have SMT between Q1 and Q2, then more times than not, you're going to have AMD, right? And if you have SMT between Q2 and Q3, then you're going to more times than not have XA MD, right? You understand now? So, the whole time, yes, SMT, it's very important. But you, you already know, we have sequential for SMT, and we have more than that, right? And that's literally how you can get in sync with price action. Is this recorded? Yes, it is. The way how you backtest a 90-minute sequence SMT is, it's same with every cycle. The same with every single cycle. The same way how you trade SMT on a daily cycle with a daily cycle, or the same way how you use it. The same way you use it on a 90-minute cycle, right? It's, it's fractal. That's, that's why, you know, QT is there to show you the factuality between price action. All you need to do is backtest. Like, if you don't understand some things already, you know, you're beginning to understand, but it's not as clear as yet. All you need to do is backtest. You just need to backtest, which is, you know, basically what we were doing today. It's not hard. It's not hard to backtest, and that's exactly what will help you. Please explain about the synchronization of different time frames. Okay, so time frames to use. If you are, you know, you want to do position trades, you need the true month open, and the time frame that you use for entries would be the daily time frame. Swing trades, you need a two-week open, the one-hour time frame. Short-term trades, you need the two-day open, which you need to be entering on the 15-minute time frame. Day trades, you need a five-minute time frame, and you need the 90-minute cycles for scalps. You need micro session cycles, right? And you would be using the one-minute time frame. Do you use ranges? Yes. So, yeah, and again, if you're day trading and you're using 90-minute cycles, you should be using the five-minute time frame, right? Scalps, like one-minute time frame, then you should be using the micro sessions, right? For the highest probability it trades to form, you know, you must go through, you should, like, follow seasonal tendency, check your month bias, check, you know, the weekly profile that you expect, which, you know, comes from you looking at the economic calendar the Sunday before, you know, the week, the trading week begins. Every, every cycle has a revolving true open, right? If you have, you know, sequence of SMT between Q3 and Q4, then the revolving true open would be between Q3 and Q4, which would be the beginning of Q4. Let me try to say more clear, right? So, your revolving true open, if you have sequence SMT between Q3 and Q4, would be the beginning, right? The opening price of Q4. And you layer that with SMT, or you layer that with, you know, conducting your analysis with using the cycles, true open, higher time frame to open. So, for example, if you're trading in the New York, right? You're trading New York and you're using the 90-minute cycles, right? And there's a cal SMT below, right? 7:30 opening price, you know, you buy below two opens, right? Yes, you do. You know that already. And there's a cal SMT below, then that would be high probability, right? And then, of course, you need, like, level, a higher time level to for price to react to. Do you use ranges? Yes, everyone uses ranges. It's pretty simple, right? Buy, sell equal, sell, sell equal. And no problem. I will not cut anything out of this video. All right, and, you know, if you guys, you know, realize, you know, wherever we have the, you know, silver bullets, that's usually, you know, key time for SMT, all right, which is pretty good. So, like 10 to 10:30 is, you know, where you would usually see the, the sequence of SMT during the New York session between Q3 and Q4. If price is higher than the true session open and revolving open with SMT, that's high probability, of course, it is. So, you need to, you know, try to find which style of trading, you know, works for you. If you're a position trader, right? If you're a swing trader, right? If you're a short-term trader, if you're a day trader or a scalper, and you need to choose one and just be true to it. Focus there. So, if you like short-term trades, you know, you, you'll be trying to capitulate on the daily cycle, right? And you'll be probably, you know, making a better gain trading during London, the New York session, and the New York session, right? Whereas, you know, day trades, you'll be using the five-minute time frame, right? Which is very, which is even though, you know, you'll see me trading with the 15-second time frame, the one-minute time frame, my favorite time frame is probably the five-minute time frame, right? Because I have more time to think, most of the times, which is the only reason why then I can use the 90-minute cycles to know its full potential. If Q1 and Q2 forms an SMT after, and but after that, there is another SMT between Q2 and Q3, how can I solve this? Then you just get out of the trade. You enter during Q2 if there's SMT between Q1 and Q2, and then during Q3, you could expect price to reverse. Typical price action, you know, on a choppy day, I probably go, you know, probably until 9:00, maybe if there's enough questions, which there seem to be. Can we split a day into three quarters, not four? Well, no. Well, you can, but you'll be, you know, making your own concept. Can he explain 369? Not, not right now, my friend. All right, so the best thing, you know, for me personally, which, you know, I'll probably be giving you guys the words for trading plans that, you know, I'll be sharing with you, you know, I usually focus on the New York session, Q3, right? Then Q3 to Q4, and Q3, which was 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. I always talk about. And if you guys ever listen, if you guys are ever trading during the New York session during this time, when you see, right, a new week opening that, you know, right, overlaid with an FVG or balanced price range, and you have sequential SMT, that is like, it's pretty rare, right? It doesn't happen. It happens, but not a lot. So, you won't see that happening every single week. Whenever that happens, it's an almost a short shot, in my opinion, right? That's when I, I'll go, you know, start recording my trade and post it, you know, stuff like that, which it just doesn't fail a lot, right? Then you have, you know, your micro, a microcycle window, which is like 9:22 a.m. to 10:08 a.m., which is like a, a little 30-minute time window, which is like high probability, right? Where you see SMT and lower time frame for most of the times. Then, of course, you'll be like, trying to enter within, you know, within the range and exiting outside of the range, internal to external liquidity, which trades do you like? Do I like the most? I'll say swing. It depends on the asset class, but I like, I like scalps because I could just get in and, you know, get it within a couple minutes. And I like scalps because, you know, you can find more scalps due to, you know, the time that each candle takes to form, right? You always need one correlated asset to touch the new opening gap in order to validate a weekly session, a weekly cycle that is compared with the log through open. Not all the times, but if you just focus on that, then you'll be right more times than not, right? That's high probability right there. There are other things that you can look for, which we will eventually get into. Is bias important when it comes to sequential SMT? Sequential SMT creates bias, right? That is bias. They will also, we need also that different and black on production. Don't worry about that, man. When we get to like, probably more, we don't want to scare people, right? Used to, I used to be on that too much. I just relax right now. Pretty sure that everyone, you know, heard too much of me over the past three years, and, you know, some stuff that I talk about kind of happening. So, I need to go into that. Not yet. With time, we will. So, you know, why I, what I usually look for on Sundays, you know, you already know, I go in Forex Factory, look at, you know, see what we could expect during the week, when we would expect volatility. Not going to go into this too much because we'll talk about this tomorrow. And then I'm looking at, you know, the new week opening gap, right? So, whenever the new week opens, then I'm looking at new week opening gap between NQ and the DXY, comparing them, and so on, which is usually, you know, a major level of price. The new week opening gap, best setups usually to react to it. And whenever, you know, you have, say, you have price trading away from the new week opening gap, you know, even during a Wednesday, you know, whatever, then you have news on Thursday, then you, you usually have price reverse if it's been trading away from that gap and return to it. You know, I've talked about so much, you know, things that you could just use by themselves, you know, 'cause most of you already know if your valid is and so on, but you don't know how to validate it. SMT. Most of you like order blocks, you don't know which one to use. SMT will show you which one to use. Sequential SMT, not just SMT. Which SMTs don't work? The ones that are not sequential, right? Those are the ones that don't work in my opinion. You know, you guys will be far ahead, like, even, you know, far ahead of me within the next, probably next couple years, to be honest, 'cause you're just like, you know, getting this information right now. Information that I wanted. Right now, you have people just studying for your B caps, not knowing that that's, you know, kindergarten stuff. Even regular SMTs, kindergarten stuff, because you don't know which one will work. How do you know? You're not going to know. You're just going to be blindingly. You don't have a filter for SMT. Here, we do. We know what happens with, with the, the asset class that makes a failure swing. We know what to expect. We know which one, you know, will pump more, which one will drop more, and so on. We know which times to expect it. So, I'll probably be here for like two more minutes. And yes, the questions will be left in the recording. So, this recording will be around 50 minutes, 55 minutes long. So, probably just go now, and we'll be back tomorrow at 6 PM Eastern Standard Time. Um, everyone that, you know, if you got a link sent to you, that this is just for people that pay with crypto, right? You know, you'll be approved to join the new group. And, you know, more than likely by Wednesday, right, before we get into our, you know, our weekly Wednesday lectures. And if you paid through Wise, then you're just going to get, just going to be emailed, and then, you know, you just join the link and then you group, boom. And that's it. And this will be the, I promise you, the last time you really have to do this. All right, so that's it. Probably be doing this on more Saturdays if, you know, you guys like it. So, yeah, it's 9:00 p.m. now. Been here for an hour. And, yeah, we'll talk again tomorrow. Have a wonderful night.