Transcription
Whether you're fighting to get in the playoffs, fighting to get a buy, or fighting to avoid the last place punishment, hopefully I can help you with these wide receiver rankings.
Starting off with St. Brown, plays the Rams. Jamar plays the Steelers. Puka plays the Seahawks. I don't need to talk about any of these names because it's very clear if you have them, you put them in your starting lineup.
Now, CeeDee Lamb will be our wide receiver four. With CeeDee Lamb only averaging about 15.1 fantasy points per game so far this season, but those numbers are a little bit skewed given the fact that in week three, obviously he leaves that game against the Chicago Bears very early after only running three routes and scoring zero fantasy points. So if you look at the games that CeeDee Lamb's actually played, he is closer to averaging about 17 points per contest. And if we're looking at the volume, this is a wide receiver that's averaged about 10 targets per game, slightly over 10 targets a game in those five contests that he's played. Right now, the Dallas Cowboys have an implied team total of 27 points. So, they project to be one of the highest scoring offenses in the league this week. Very easy to still view CeeDee Lamb as an elite option.
Now, Rashee Rice is actually averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game. The only other wide receiver that's up there is Puka Nacua. This matchup against the Denver Broncos is a little bit tough. And if we are looking at Rice, the volume hasn't been crazy high. He's averaging about eight, nine targets a game. The touchdowns have been incredible, though, and obviously those are a little bit tougher to project. But he's an elite name nonetheless, even though it's a tough matchup.
Now, Drake London has been incredible lately. We are looking at London over the past four games played, finishing as the wide receiver one in two of those weeks. With Drake London, in the last four games played, he scored 32.8, 38, and 24 and a half fantasy points. He's sitting here averaging about 12 targets a game while doing so. So, I'm not really concerned with the matchup against the Carolina Panthers, even though last time he played against Carolina, we know that this team collapsed and London only scored 10 and a half points.
Now, our next name will be Amon-Ra St. Brown. I know a lot of people are going to sit here and maybe roll their eyes that I'm saying that I'm not worried about Drake London against the Panthers, even though again, we saw what happened last time the Falcons went up against Carolina. But if we're looking at sportsbook projections right now, you actually do have the Atlanta Falcons projecting to score more points than the Detroit Lions this week. We are a little bit lower than usual on Jahmyr Gibbs in our rankings this week. And we're going to do the same thing for St. Brown. It's just a really tough game environment having to travel to go to Philly. Typically, we're used to seeing the Detroit Lions project out to score 26, 27, 28, hell, sometimes even 29 total points. This week, however, they're down with an implied team total of 22.
Now, surprisingly, the Minnesota Vikings project to score a ridiculous amount of points this week with an implied team total of almost 26. The only offenses that project to score more points than the Minnesota Vikings this week are actually going to be the Dallas Cowboys, the Buffalo Bills, and I think honestly that may be it. Like the Minnesota Vikings project to be a top three to four offense in the league according to sportsbooks. So I actually think that this is going to be a massive spot for a Justin Jefferson bounceback. Right now, Jefferson's higher or lower 71 and a half receiving yards on Underdog this week. And while I understand that he has been very disappointing and he hasn't hit 71 receiving yards now in back-to-back games with Kirk Cousins under center, he had gone for higher than 71 and a half receiving yards in the prior six games played. If we combine that with the fact that this Vikings offense all of a sudden actually does project to score a ton of points, I actually really do like Jefferson to go higher than 71 and a half receiving yards this week on Underdog.
Now, moving over to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is going to be playing in Buffalo. Right now, you actually do have the Bills favored by about five and a half points in this game. Sportsbooks are saying should be a massive bounceback spot for the Buffalo Bills. But with JSN, the volume has just been incredible. Where we're looking at over the past three weeks, despite him dealing with a pretty significant hamstring injury, this is a receiver that's had 12, 9, and 13 targets. So, now that he's fully removed from that hamstring injury and you're going to have to trail against the Buffalo Bills where we're going to assume that the passing volume is there, I actually don't mind going with the higher than 65 and a half receiving yards on JSN either on Underdog, which of course, if you want to check out any of those projections, you can always find the link to Underdog Fantasy in the description as well as the comment section of these videos. If you sign up to Underdog Fantasy with code FLOCK, you'll get $100 added to your account. Plus, you're going to be getting a free gimme pick. It's going to be something like Drake May higher or lower half a total yard. If you sign up before the Thursday night game, it'll be a different player. If you sign up after, you'll get free questions that you can ask me in the live streams. And I'm live streaming every single day answering your questions until Christmas.
Now, maybe I am very biased with this next ranking. I am going to be putting Jaylen Waddle as our wide receiver 10 this week. Now, I just traded for Jaylen Waddle in the Flock League. I'm sure that you all saw that, but over the past three weeks, Waddle is sitting here averaging about 16 points per game. Jaylen Waddle at the same time is averaging about sevenish targets per game during that time period as well. The volume's gone up dramatically with the Tyreek Hill injury. Last year, Waddle was at 5 and a half targets per game. That's gone up to 6 and a half this season. And he's actually sitting here as a pretty efficient wide receiver as well, averaging 2.6 yards per route run.
Now, what we're typically used to seeing is we're typically used to seeing the Miami Dolphins project to be one of the worst offenses in the league, but this overseas game right now has an over/under of 47 and a half points. The Miami Dolphins are two and a half point favorites in this game. That gives them an implied team total of 25. And we know Waddle's going to be the number one target in this offense. So I think it's wheels up for De'Von Achane this week. I think it's wheels up for Jaylen Waddle as well because sportsbooks surprisingly like Miami against Washington here.
And then going over to Davante Adams. Um, with Adams, it was maybe a little bit of a concern with what you had regarding the back injury, but um, he's already been cleared good to go on Wednesday. So I'm going to assume that he is playing at 100% strength. And while we can sit here and say, well, you know what, the targets per game is actually worse than any season that we've had since going back to 2017 as a Green Bay Packer, that's a real concern. His receptions per game is worse than any season he's had since going back to 2016, almost 10 years ago. His target share is worse than any season since 2017. I mean, across the board, volume is down horrifically. It frankly doesn't matter because he's averaging a receiving touchdown a game. The efficiency has been insane. This is a team that's throwing the ball a ton when they get to the goal line. So touchdown upside is there. It's a toughest matchup going up against the Seattle Seahawks. But I mean, still, you have the Rams projected out with an implied team total of almost 26 points.
George Pickens will be our next wide receiver. With Pickens, obviously, he's ranked a little bit lower now than where he was as a borderline top five option for us in our rankings when CeeDee Lamb was injured. And you would maybe say, "Oh, okay. Well, they're playing against the garbage Raiders. The Raiders are going to have a tough time putting points up on the board. This going to mean the Dallas Cowboys can run the ball in the second half." Until you realize, nope, the Dallas Cowboys defense is still horrendous. You actually only have a spread in this game of about three and a half points. So, the over/under is over 50 points, should be a high-scoring game and close enough to keep the Dallas Cowboys throwing the ball.
Now, Ladd McConkey will be our wide receiver at 13. Ladd had 20 points dropped against me last week. Very disappointing. I thought I was going to lose because of it. Of course, we didn't. We moved on to 8-2. The team of Destiny is still on the right track. But with Ladd, the target volumes looked much better over the past five weeks than it did earlier in the season. And over the past five, six weeks, he started scoring touchdowns again. Now, the big thing that I'm going to be on the lookout for is if Darnell Washington is going to be playing. We probably will move Ladd down these rankings, but I'm going to assume that Washington is actually going to be missing this week, but he is currently labeled as day-to-day.
Now, Nico Collins will be our next wide receiver. With Nico Collins, we traded for him, I want to say, back in week eight when he was dealing with a concussion. And in back-to-back weeks here, he has had double-digit targets. He's had 11 targets and 15 targets this past week with Davis Mills. Now, C.J. Stroud did not practice on Wednesday, and this was a very serious concussion. It does seem like there's a very realistic shot that C.J. Stroud is not going to be the quarterback for the Houston Texans this next week. But you still do have the Texans favored by almost a touchdown in this game with an implied team total of 22 points. They are projecting to score about the same amount as the Baltimore Ravens, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chicago Bears, and Nico is an incredibly talented wide receiver that is dominating target volume.
Now, moving over to our next name, we are going to have Zay Flowers. When we are looking at Zay Flowers, obviously, it's tough to just take the career averages or the season-long averages that you've had for him because a lot of those games earlier this year, you had no Lamar Jackson. But Lamar Jackson did just miss practice on Wednesday. They're telling us that he's going to play on Thursday. I'm assuming that Lamar is going to be a-okay for this week. That is going to be something you need to monitor, though. And of course, if Lamar Jackson were to miss, Zay Flowers is going to move down these rankings dramatically. But the over/under of this Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns game at the moment is actually sitting here at about 39 and a half points. So it projects to be one of the lower scoring games of the week. So I am a little bit concerned about Flowers.
Then Romeo Doubs will be our next player. Romeo Doubs over the past two weeks against the New York Giants and the Cincinnati Bengals, very clearly a must-start name that you absolutely had to jam in. Now sadly, he gave you the goose egg against Cincinnati, of course. But the reason I thought Romeo was an absolute auto-lock is he has proven that one, he's a very talented wide receiver. Two, he's clearly the wide receiver one in this offense. And three, with that in mind as well, you were looking at a player that was in really good matchups against the Bengals and the Giants where the Bears projected to score a ton of points. Well, this week in particular, you actually do have them as three-point dogs, and they are projecting out much worse offensively in a tough matchup in Minnesota than they did over the past two weeks. So, Romeo's going to be down our rankings just slightly here.
Now, moving over to our next tier, we are going to have Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis has already been ruled out. Diggs has scored a touchdown in three weeks straight. Now I will point out that we aren't necessarily seeing the receiving yardage marks go crazy for Diggs. I mean, he's had two games this year with over 100 receiving yards, but outside of that, every other game's been under 70. He's currently averaging 55 receiving yards per game, which is the worst mark that we have seen from him since his rookie season. But the routes are just going to be up when you have no Gabe Davis. And this matchup specifically against the New York Jets is going to be one in which the Patriots project to be the highest scoring offense in the league, I believe this week, with an implied team total of 28 points.
Now, Deebo Samuel will be our next name. Obviously, Deebo would be much higher in these rankings if you were in a spot in which you have Sam Howell under center, but it's not going to be Howell. It's going to be Jacoby Brissett. But still, I'm actually surprised to see that the Commanders this week project to score just as many points as some of these other teams. Like they project to score one fewer point than the Baltimore Ravens. They project to score more than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So, I think you got to give Deebo and this Commander offense the benefit of the doubt, especially knowing how many pass-catcher injuries that they have here, including Austin Ekeler and Terry McLaurin, which I do think gives you a baseline floor with Deebo Samuel's involvement in this offense.
Devonta Smith, I think we just have to rank as the wide receiver one in Philadelphia at this point. Smith is averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game in comparison to A.J. Brown at 11.2. This matchup against the Detroit Lions is a spread of only about three points. So, while I personally really am hoping that they go out there and run the ball over and over and over again with Saquon Barkley, um, it may be a spot where they trail in the second half and may have to throw it.
Now, our next wide receiver is going to be T. Higgins. Um, with Higgins, he's coming off a massive blow-up where he just scored 33 points against the Chicago Bears. And you are looking at just a tremendous amount of passing volume in this offense ever since Joe Flacco's taken over. Now, with that being said, Ja'Marr Chase has definitely been dominating the target share in this offense. The last time you had the Cincinnati Bengals play the Pittsburgh Steelers, you had T. Higgins with 10 targets, which is incredible, don't get me wrong, but Ja'Marr Chase in this game as well had 23. So, Chase had over double the amount of targets as Higgins. But both of them are going to be must-start names. We saw how many points they put up against the Steelers last time they played.
D.K. Metcalf is my wide receiver three, I want to say, on my fantasy team at this point. Yeah, we have Waddle, Nico in the starting lineup, and then D.K. Metcalf in one of the flexes. Um, with Metcalf, it's been extremely frustrating as of late. Like if we're looking at over the past month, he's actually only had one game with double-digit fantasy points. And again, this was something that we discussed earlier in the season, just looking at the overall volume numbers, saying, "Well, you know what I mean, he's averaging a career-low targets per game, receptions per game, receiving yards per game, just career lows across the board. The only thing that's saving him is actually the touchdown rate, which is very difficult to project going forward." So, I wish I was able to sell D.K. Metcalf a month ago in my own league. Sadly, I wasn't able to. But if we're going to be looking at what we are projecting out this week, you actually do have the Pittsburgh Steelers with an implied team total of 27 points, which is actually right there with the Dallas Cowboys. And um, higher than teams like Philly, Detroit, um, the Rams, the Bengals, the Seahawks, these other teams that we've come to expect that they're great offenses. It's just a phenomenal matchup going up against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Now, moving over to our D tier, these are the players you can consider benching. If you were looking at wide receivers in S through C, those are players that, in my opinion, they just absolutely need to be in your starting lineup this week.
Wan'Dale Robinson is somebody that you probably need to have in your lineup. It's going to be weird seeing this offense with no Brian Allen. It's going to be weird seeing this offense with Jameis Winston, but if we're going to be looking at what we have with um historical wide receiver production with Winston, he's going to be that "don't give a f***" quarterback where he just floods this overall offense with passing volume. And at the same time, Wan'Dale Robinson's actually been seeing a tremendous amount of volume over the past four games. He's had double-digit targets in three of them. The only holdup that I would have with Wan'Dale and the reason why I think you can bench him is it is going to be a tough matchup going up against the Green Bay Packers where right now the Giants have an implied team total of about 18 and a half points. The only offenses that I see right now that project to be worse than the Giants this week are actually going to be the Cleveland Browns and I want to say the New York Jets as well.
Our next wide receiver is going to be A.J. Brown. With A.J. Brown, don't know if y'all saw, but he came out here. He was on some Madden stream saying like, "Oh, if you have me in fantasy, get rid of me, brother." You should have told us that before the season. It's a little late now. Um, and coming through saying that everything in his life is perfect family-wise, but outside of that, um, nothing in his life is perfect. He says it's far from it. Um, so A.J. Brown continues to cry off the field as the Philadelphia Eagles win football games. As A.J. Brown sits here with 6.8 targets per game in comparison to DeVonta Smith with 6.9. However, with his target volume, he's down at 1.65 yards per route run. 1.65 yards per route run is by far and away the worst mark that we've ever seen from A.J. Brown. As DeVonta Smith has 2.34 yards per route run, which is a career-high. Like, I don't know how much of A.J. Brown's struggles can really just be pinned on Jalen Hurts. I said this in the live stream the other day and I know most people disagree with this, but how are we going to say that everything that's failing with A.J. Brown is offensive coordinator and Jalen Hurts related when DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both having the best seasons of their NFL careers?
Now, Tyjae Spears will be our next name. With Tyjae, obviously garbage offense and consistent target volume. You know what you're going to get. Um, if he can start scoring touchdowns. Um, God knows how he'll be great in fantasy, but it's just tough to do when you have Bryce Young as your quarterback.
Courtland Sutton has a tough matchup going up against the Kansas City Chiefs. While at the same time, Courtland Sutton is sitting here averaging 6.6 targets per game this season. And in comparison to Troy Franklin, Troy Franklin's at 7.3. So there's an argument to be made that Sutton may not even be the wide receiver one in his offense.
Romeo Doubs was set up in a really good spot this past week with the injuries to Jaire Alexander, Luke Musgrave, and Dontayvion Wicks. And obviously, he gets injured, but he still played 63% of the snaps and still only scored a point and a half. And this week, there's a chance that you actually get Dontayvion Wicks back in. So, I'd prefer avoiding Doubs if we can.
Quentin Johnston is a very difficult eval right now. You had Darnell Washington get injured this past week, which led to Quentin Johnston getting back up to 10 targets, which was the first time that we had had that since week four. So, if Washington misses, I'm going to be more excited about Johnson. But, if Washington plays, obviously, he's just been taking so much away from the Big Q.
Xavier Worthy will be our next name. Xavier Worthy is also another player that I drafted a bunch in Underdog basketball drafts. While at the same time, um, he is the exact opposite of Quentin Johnston. He's tanking my teams where Quentin Johnston's keeping him alive. So I really hope we get a big week from Worthy, but overall the target volume hasn't been there, averaging about five and a half targets per game, and it's a tough matchup going up against the Broncos.
Khalil Shakir popped up on the injury report and Khalil Shakir, we know at the same time is a wide receiver that just has a very capped ceiling. Like we've seen what he is now, back-to-back seasons averaging exactly 12.1 fantasy points per game. This matchup against Tampa's not anything super special.
Jordan Addison over the past few weeks, the volume has just gone down dramatically where you've seen three, two, and three receptions over the past three weeks. Now, with that being said, again, the Vikings project out much better this week than they have in a long time. Like, I know people are going to roll their eyes that we have Jameson Williams this low in the rankings. And by all means, if you want to go out there and scream at me that Jameson Williams is way too low here, I got news for you. You can just go take higher than 46 and a half receiving yards on Underdog Fantasy rather than yelling at me in the comment section.
Now, I'll be honest with you. I would not take higher than 46 and a half receiving yards because if we look at what Jamo's done so far this season, you've had five games with fewer than 46 and a half where you've only had four games where he's hit that mark. And with Jameson Williams, it's very clear he either is going to score fewer than seven fantasy points or more than 16. The game where he scores 11 points, the game where he scores 10 points, the game where he scores 12 points, it is just non-existent.
Now, I can already hear you in the comment section yelling at me that, "Oh my gosh, you actually have the offensive coordinator getting demoted and Jameson Williams was being used differently last week for the first time in forever." Well, again, I got news for you. For the first time in forever, the Detroit Lions project out to be a below-average offense this week because it's a brutal matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. And Jameson Williams is averaging 10.9 fantasy points per game so far this season, which is actually lower than Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen, we got to have pretty low in these ranks though in comparison to his season-long averages just because Keenan obviously is going in the wrong direction. I mean, in almost every major statistical category. If Darnell Washington's ruled that he's going to be good to play, Keenan could fall even further in these ranks.
Now, Troy Franklin will be our next guy. With Franklin, um, the volume's been there, but the efficiency has been horrible. Like right now he's averaging 5.8 yards per target, which maybe you say, "Oh, that's a small sample size thing. He's going to be able to all of a sudden start being more efficient with these targets." But you can go back to what he did as a rookie where he averaged five yards per target. That's like the yards per carry number for a lot of running backs. Um, and honestly, he's been kind of running hot on touchdowns. So, if the touchdowns go away and the yardage number is just not there, it is really, really tough even if he's drawing targets and it's a tough matchup playing against the Chiefs.
Parker Washington this past week obviously goes out there and has himself a fine day with the return touchdown, with the receiving touchdown. The holdup I'm going to have is I think Jakobi Myers expands the role this week and I think Parker Washington's a bad wide receiver in a bad offense and not a great matchup.
Jauan Jennings is a tough ranking right now. Obviously, just make sure you're subscribed to the channel and I'll go ahead and I will keep you updated with this later in the week. Um, but right now Ricky Pearsall did practice on Wednesday. So if Ricky Pearsall plays, I would say that Jauan Jennings is probably going to be somebody that you just have to go ahead and bench. And obviously we need to make sure we're monitoring the Brock Bowers versus Michael Penix Jr. situation as well.
Right now, Trey Tucker has himself a dream matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. And at the same time, Trey Tucker played 100% of the snaps against the Denver Broncos. And so far this season, like he's averaging a career-high receiving yards per game, receiving touchdowns per game, targets per game, receptions per game. You have no Jakobi Myers, and it's a great matchup. So, I think he can be a sneaky play.
Very similar to Tutu Atwell is a sneaky play. I don't think he's a must-start option by any means, don't get me wrong. Um, I think JSN will be. Tutu Atwell came away with the multiple receiving touchdowns this past week, but still, he's just been living off touchdowns. Not much volume.
D.J. Moore is a wide receiver that hasn't really had any volume whatsoever. If we go through and we look at D.J. Moore's entire season, not just this past week when I know he got banged up, but you go through and you look at weeks one through 10, he has had zero games with more than seven targets. He's just getting phased out of this offense entirely.
Christian Watson has the deep threat on lock for the Packers. Last week it was disgusting because you had a tough matchup against Philly. This week it's a better spot against the Giants. But it's really going to be dependent on if Dontayvion Wicks plays or not.
Jakobi Myers, I would expect that he is going to be able to actually expand his role this next week. He only played 44% of the snaps against Houston Texans. He only ran 14 routes. But now he gets a full week to practice with this team. And if I was a betting man, I'd say Jakobi Myers is probably a better player than Parker Washington.
Then our next name is going to be Jerry Jeudy. I completely understand for you wanting to yell in the comment section, "Oh my gosh, Mason, don't you know Jerry Jeudy just had a great week? Don't you know Jerry Jeudy just had 12 targets, six receptions, a receiving touchdown, almost 20 fantasy points against the Jets?" My response to that would be it was the Jets and Jerry Jeudy has to play the Baltimore Ravens this week and the Cleveland Browns project to score is 16 points and Jerry Jeudy is averaging 7 and a half fantasy points per game. Do not start him.
Um, even if Dontayvion Wicks were to come back in, I'm not wanting you to start Dontayvion Wicks. He's averaging 6.7 fantasy points per game, averaging three and a half targets. I wouldn't want you to start Darius Slayton even with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. I mean, I do think that you can do it if you are just super desperate. You can start Keon Coleman if you're super desperate. But the only way Keon Coleman does anything at all is if the Buffalo Bills fall behind their opponent dramatically. And right now, that's not the expectation playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Shaheed, I know that he only played 39% of the snaps this past week, but it was his first game with the Seattle Seahawks and at the same time it was a game in which they just boat raced the Arizona Cardinals. So they are more so going out there and asking their wide receivers to block here. They're probably going to have to throw against the Rams because they are dogs.
Calvin Austin III looks like an absolute bum. I mean, I turn on that game with the Pittsburgh Steelers and immediately see him just dropping balls. He had 14 receiving yards this past week, but it's a really good matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, and this is the best Pittsburgh's projected all year.
Alec Pierce, you can point him out and say like, I still think he's probably the wide receiver one here in Tennessee based off volume, but at the same time, it is the Tennessee Titans. No thank you.
Luther Burden looks decent. He played a career-high 45% of the snaps this past week against the Giants with D.J. Moore banged up. Maybe they continue to expand his role.
Cooper Kupp this past week came out with the 74 receiving yards, but he had two targets. I don't want to start him. And again, the Miami Dolphins actually have really good projections this week. You've had Malik Washington scoring a touchdown over the past few games, but ultimately I don't want you to start Malik Washington.
Don't start anybody in F tier. Don't start anybody in E tier if you can avoid it. D tier you can look at. I wouldn't fault you for benching any of those names or starting any of those names, but C tier and above I would label kind of as the must-start options.
But I really appreciate you. Really hope I was able to help you out in some way with this. And again, I want to reiterate if you wanted to check out any of those projections on Underdog Fantasy. Links always in the description. It's in the comment section. It's in the live chat. Code FLOCK will get you $100 added to your account after you play your first five. And on top of that, you'll be getting a gimme pick for that Thursday night game. Drake May higher or lower half of total yard. Sign up after the Thursday night game, it'll be a different player for Sunday, and then you'll get free questions for the live stream. So we're live streaming every single day until Christmas answering your free questions. But I really appreciate you. Really hope I was able to help you out in some way and hope I get to see you out in the live stream sometime.