Transcription
I don't see this as a March 2000 type of event. I think there are a lot of differences here. Are we in a bubble? We might be. Good luck calling the top of it.
You have to assume that all bubbles eventually come to an end. So, what would cause this party to end? What would cause this party to end is how do we stay ahead in the AI space when everyone thinks this is a giant bubble the likes of which has never before been seen? How do we pick AI companies when it's become a lot more than just LLMs and chips? So, what are the advantages to the AI space and the tech sector overall in 2026 versus other sectors? And where is the entire sector headed?
These are the questions we'll be discussing with Matthew Tuttle, founder and CIO of Tuttle Capital Management. He's also going to be revealing to us not just the direction of the tech space, but his favorite tech and AI plays in stocks right now. Stay tuned. This is going to be a very interesting episode.
This video is brought to you by and sponsored by Koshi. It's the largest prediction market in the United States. Unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real world events from economic data to political outcomes. And the price moves on public opinion, not a house. Go to the link in the description down below or scan the QR code here to get started. And new users who use my code lin can get $10 when you trade $10. Right now on the couch, there's a trade called which companies will officially announce an IPO this year. This trade perfectly predicted the SpaceX IPO before it IPOed. So I think investors better pay attention. At the top of this list is Jersey Mike's at 93% chance, Anthropic at 85% chance, and Open AI at 68% chance. And we're going to be talking about this issue with Matthew. He's going to reveal to us his top IPO pick. And spoiler alert, it's neither of those companies that I just named. But if you do put $50 down on Matthew's favorite potential IPO of this year, you may potentially yield $592 if you're right. So stay tuned. Matthew's going to reveal to us what that stock is and what we can learn from the SpaceX IPO.
Matthew, welcome back to the show. Good to see you again.
Hey, thank you very much and and thank you very much for having me.
Yeah, memory just became the hottest trade in the market. Uh DRAM contract prices have jumped around 60%. I believe uh in a single quarter. Uh and we we're going to talk about uh your new ETF, but first let me just pull up a chart and talk about the broad market. People have been talking about the SpaceX selloff after the IPO. Um and uh and I I just want to point out that it's not just SpaceX, it's the tech sector selling off. So on my screen you see SpaceX um in the bar chart here. Uh IGV which is the software index is uh is the blue line and Bitcoin is the uh green line. It's just important to know that all these things have been moving together and while SpaceX has had a great uh run in the first two days of IPO uh the stock has been sliding ever since it reached top of around $220. Uh I the IGV index has fallen alongside SpaceX. So um people have been talking to me about how Bitcoin has been a leading indicator for the stock market. Bitcoin's down 50% from its top and the technicals don't look good for Bitcoin. So, uh, what do you think? Do you think that, um, Bitcoin and the IGV index trading alongside each other are indicative of more downturns or more corrections to come?
So, I I don't know that I'd read a ton into them going down together. I don't think Bitcoin's a leading indicator for the market at this point as much as I think just the air has come out of that trade where you know before we had memory photonics space you know all of kind of those bottleneck trades you know we had Bitcoin and you know now all the bottleneck trades are just more interesting you've seen the air come out of Bitcoin um you know I I I'd be a dip buyer here on that somewhere. Software is a whole different beast. You know, everyone knows there are a lot of software companies that are just going to get crushed by AI and then they're going to be some that benefit. I'd stay away from IGV. That's not a smart index that's going to include everything. I'd be careful on software. you know, I think you can trade some of the names like, you know, a now or a CRM. I I think the cyber security names, we're going to need more of them, not less. Uh, but I think there are better opportunities elsewhere. And, you know, what you've seen the past couple of days is what, you know, what happens when things go up too far, too fast.
You know, eventually people are taking profits. And, you know, that's what we're seeing right now. I mean it could turn into something more but right now it's just people taking profits which part of a normal market you said.
Okay. So I I brought up IGVA because it's commonly quoted as a proxy for the software index but you said it's not composed of what you call smart stocks. Is that is that what is that what you said? So top holdings Palanteer Microsoft Oracle Salesforce Palo Alto Intuitit and then a few others.
Right. I mean, what it's going to have is it's going to have everything. And before AI, yeah, you could make an argument you want everything. Now, in the age of AI, I'm going to want to strip out and and I don't own any software stocks. We rode Crowd Strike up. Uh, we ended up I mean, it went up a ridiculous amount. We took our profits. I trade now and I trade CRM every once in a while and I trade Trade Desk every once in a while. I don't think I've ever made money trading trade desk. Um, but you know, I I think now in this era of AI, you've got to split out if you want to be in software, what are the software companies that are going to be additive or at least aren't going to get crushed by AI. And what are the software companies that are? And you know either you need a new ETF which we may build or or someone else may build it or you know you just got to pick the individual names and don't buy the ETF.
So what companies do you think will not be cannibalized by AI software companies at least that the the question comes from the concern that uh uh AI will make a lot of legacy software companies obsolete.
Yeah. I mean, I think a Microsoft is always I mean, that's a whole different category of company, you know, they're going to be fine. A Palunteer is going to be fine. Anything cyber security I mean, you need more cyber security, not less, is going to be fine. And I think, you know, a now and a CRM are going to be fine, which is why we do trade those from time to time when they get beaten down. um you know beyond that I just I'd be I'd be really careful with software.
So why should people be looking into the memory space in particular if if AI is going to continuously uh innovate and require less and less compute power? Uh at least that's part of the coding thesis. Uh then shouldn't in theory we should be shorting memory stocks not going long in them?
So right now memory is a bottleneck. Is it always going to be a bottleneck? Who knows? Do you want to be buying, you know, memory stocks up here that have already gone up a g gazillion percent. You know, you could make an argument that they that they've run. You know, let them come in a bit. But until memory ceases to be a bottleneck, you know, that's an area I'm going to want to be in, which is why we've got three different ways to play it with with memory ETFs and four if you count our 2x long uh SanDisk. So, I I do think memory is an area you want to be in. As we're sitting here taping this, you know, Micron is up over 8%. I'm assuming I haven't not looked. I'm assuming that means that they announced something killer and you know, so the memory names is something I want to be in. What what I what we tell people is watch your position sizing. So, you know, I've got, you know, all of my ETFs in my portfolio and we have them in our wealth management portfolios, but we've got them at small sizes, you know, one and 2%. So, you know, if we do have a 50% correction in these names, it's not that big a deal.
Let's pull up a chart of Micron. I remember going uh going back to the uh efficiency in AI u problem. So I remember when Google came out with uh Turbo Quant uh which promises to reduce uh memory footprint by up to six or eight times. Uh that was early that was late March and immediately after the news Micron fell um mid-March to to late March it fell about almost 20% um in that month. What happened subsequently? Uh Matthew why why why did Matthew why why did Micron go up 100? No. Yeah. About 80% from Sorry, that's more that's that was May. Why did Micron go up from from uh 320 bucks to 1,200? That's 275% since it bottomed out after Google came out with Turbo Quantum.
Yeah. Because the price of memory has gone up exponentially. It is. You know, I I I look at three main bottlenecks. memory, photonix, which is kind of a data bottleneck, and space, which is a where you're going to put data centers bottleneck. Of all of those, memory right now is the most powerful. Um, and you know, you could look at a chart of SanDisk, Kinix, Samsung. You know, all the memory names are going to look exactly the same because memory prices are skyrocketing because AI needs so much of it. And, you know, and again, you know, Micron's up, you know, 9%. So, and you know, expectations coming into this earnings were massive, which means that they they beat him, you know, again, and that's probably demand related on memory and them talking about prices not coming down.
So, what is the AI thesis going into 2027?
So, our AI thesis going into 2027 is it's still going strong. you know, I don't I don't I don't see this as a March 2000 type of event. I think there are a lot of differences here where, you know, so I I think the dip we've seen over the past couple of days, you ought to be a buyer of it. Um, you know, and if Micron stays up here, probably have a pretty decent day in these names tomorrow. You want to look at the bottlenecks. So the trade in 2023 to maybe 2024 2025 was anything related to AI we're going to buy. Now you want to look at the bottlenecks memory photonic space but you want to keep peeling the onion and you know the next level. So we're looking at things like the substrates, we're looking at inference. We're looking at, you know, the cost of tokens and, you know, where, you know, what companies are are in those types of areas. You know, what's going to be the next bottleneck, the next bottleneck, the next bottleneck. But we really love, you know, all of the infrastructure, the energy, and then we like balancing it out with the Halo names, heavy asset, low obsolescence. You're looking at what are traditional val value companies that are additive to AI that AI isn't going to put out of business.
Yeah. So the oil companies, the utilities, um you know, copper, things of that nature.
This is an article you wrote which is important. People have pointed out that Brocom sold off dramatically in the first week of June. June 4th, 2026. Brocom did not break the AI trade. it exposed the entry problem. So this is what happened. Stock went down double digits in a single trading session even though the um the report wasn't terribly disappointing. And you wrote this here on that day. Broadcom sold off more than 14% after a print that was not catastrophic. Revenue was not collapsing. AI demand was not disappointing. The stock fell because expectations have moved beyond strong and into perfect. analyst described it as precisely very high expectations meeting a market that wanted immaculate execution. The business was fine. The multiple was not people have cited this as an example of look the AI trade is breaking because now we're getting examples of Broadcom where nothing was wrong with the earnings and yet the stuff stock fell still 14%. So that that that signals the end of the froth they said. What what was your response to this particular news?
Yeah. And you know that signals an end to some of the froth. The problem I've got with a Broadcom and we don't own it. Um and you know there's nothing wrong with it. It's just it's not you know it's not a bottleneck trade. You know it's a a massive company that you could easily make an argument is is trading at somewhat of an inflated multiple. You know I'm I'm not going to argue with anyone who wants to own it. I just think there are better opportunities in those more bottleneck areas.
Okay. What about opportunities with future IPOs? What have we learned by the way from the SpaceX IPO? A lot of people a lot of media attention was given to the SpaceX IPO and uh the overwhelming consensus on the media was that it was overvalued. People should stay away immediately after it went up double digits. Um Elon personally made I think $200 billion in two days. Anyway, um SpaceX was not a terrible trade for the people who got in right away, uh assuming you sold a few days later. So, what can we use? What can we learn from that example going forward? Because there's quite a few other IPOs this year that people are looking forward to.
Yeah. And really it's and and it's what we would learn or what you should have known, you know, you you don't and you know, and SpaceX was unique. I I've been investing since 1981. I've never seen anything like this. But the rules still apply. You don't want to be exit liquidity for, you know, for people who are getting in, you know, at the IPO, you know, the Fidelities and, you know, the the big the big investors who are able to get in at that 135 price or whatever it is that it went public at. I think it was 135. Uh, were able to get in at that price. At some point, they're sitting there in a massive game. They're going to sell. You don't want to be exit liquidity for those guys. So, we added we we have a 2x on SpaceX, SPAX. We added it to our, you know, our SPCI ETF. We added it to our UFO ETF. We added it to our HALX ETF. We didn't add it day one. You know, I I told people over and over, you probably want to stay away day one. I think SpaceX is a a must own stock. Uh but again with all of these IPOs and we've got Open AI coming. We've got Anthropic coming. Eventually we're going to have Andreal, which I'm really excited about. I'm hoping eventually we're going to get Figure AI, which I'm also really excited about. I think the rules apply. You want to own those companies, but you don't want to be exit liquidity for all the people getting in at the IPO price.
Yeah. So this stay away from day one. Which companies will officially announce IPO this year? And uh Anthropic, OpenAI. Which of these would you buy as a long-term hold? By the way,
I I'd buy all of them, but my favorite is probably Andre.
Andril. That's that's actually a Okay. There's uh traders are predicting a 6% chance on Koshi. There's they're going to announce an IPO this year. Uh but why why Andre over some of the other hotter, more talked about AI names?
So, I love where Andreal sits and you and it's perfect for my UFO ETF. So, what we're seeing in the defense space is what I call the convergence trade where traditional defense used to be big ships, big tanks, fast planes. Now, it's drones, drone killers, lasers, robots, AI. You're seeing this massive convergence between traditional defense and all of these areas of AI and Andre is my favorite company there and you know and I can't buy them. So in my UFO DTF, you know, I own Lockheed, I own Northrup, I own Katoss, you know, I own AVAV. I would love Don and the name.
Do you Okay, speaking of bottlenecks, if the straight of hormones remains closed, which it reclosed just earlier last week, uh this week rather. So if it remains closed, are you concerned about critical materials and raw materials needed for the semiconductor manufacturing to be cut off? Helium, for example, being one of them coming from the GCC regions as well as others.
Not yet, but certainly something we're keeping an eye on. I, you know, whenever I hear the war is over, I don't believe it. You know, we always tell people, you know, hey, when they tweet the war is over and oil stocks go down 5%, buy them. Um, I'm not as worried about the helium and things like that. I I wrote an article about that in my newsletter a couple months back and and what I came out with was that's not an issue right now and obviously it's something the market's not worried about at all but something we're going to definitely keep our eye on.
So people talk about this being a huge bubble and I don't know if you think it is but if you are to assume that the stock market especially in the tech sector is a huge bubble with valuations unlike anything we've seen I'm talking about SpaceX as an example then you have to assume that all bubbles eventually come to an end. So what would cause this party to end? What would cause this party to end is really the hyperscalers coming out and saying, "All right, we're done. Enough is enough. Spending is crazy. We're cutting back." And, you know, I think that could be a big problem. Um, yeah, I don't see that happening anytime soon. You know, are we in a bubble? We might be. Good luck calling the top of it. That's one thing I'd look out for. And again, you I go back to what we tell people. You're you're not going to call the top of the bubble. Somebody is, but it's probably the guy who's out there every single day saying it's a top and then one day he's going to be right. I just I'd watch your position sizing, how you structure your overall portfolio so that if I'm wrong and we are in a bubble and this is the top that you don't get your head handed to you by the market and there are ways to do that, you know, to invest in this quote unquote more safely.
Well, the market is expecting the Fed to raise rates this year, maybe once, perhaps even up to three times according to uh the CME Fed Watch tool. How does uh how does a Fed rate hike impact a high beta sector like tech?
I I think it impacts it a lot. Um and I don't know if you remember, but we did the we did the inverse ARC ETF and we launched it November of 2021 because we thought the Fed was going to raise rates and that was going to kill those stocks. And that's what happened. And you know that's what'll happen again. you know, stocks that don't have earnings today are going to get crushed in a rising rate environment. Uh certainly something else we are keeping an eye on here, which could be, you know, also something that could pop the bubble, you know, is inflation transitory here or not? And I think you've got a big part of the market betting it is betting the straight reopens, oil goes down to 60. I don't know that I believe that, but you know, I I I always keep an open mind. I want to see both sides and I want to be prepared either way there.
Okay, let's talk about ARC. It was a darling trade in 2020. Uh hugely outperforming the index and then it had a a bubble pop if you want to call it that. And since then the NASDAQ index has been outperforming. What went wrong with the ARC thesis post 2021?
So you know a bunch of things you know number one people need to understand the one immutable law of markets is reversion to the mean. You know when you go up 100% in a very short period of time you're borrowing future returns. you're going to retrace some if not all of that which is what happened here. Number two, you know, everyone was calling Kathy Wood the next Warren Buffett. Structurally, there can never be another Warren Buffett. And I would argue Warren Buffett hasn't been Warren Buffett for the past 20 years. And you know, in no offense to Kathy, who already hates my guts, it's not a great stock picker. I mean, when you are innovation and you miss the AI trade, I I don't know how you can say you're investing in innovation. So, we actually we've got one of my ETFs, Mimi, which is kind of always my top 20 to 25 ideas,
MEMY, and we just hedged it by buying ARC puts.
Yeah. All right. Um and Yeah. So the meme stock income blast ETF. Tell us about that. Meme stocks. How do you pick meme stocks there?
Yeah. So I I redefine what a meme stock is. So you know I think you've had a generation of the so-called smart money institutional investors look at retail investors as dumb money. I I think that's flipped. There are a group of retail investors who are connected on social media and discords who I would put up against any hedge fund out there. So I don't look at meme stock as a derogatory term. I look at a meme stock as something that the smart retail guys are talking about and you know so we're we're going to have 20 to 25 names. We're going to hedge sometimes. So I've got a big put in arc. I've got a big put in SMH semiconductors and then we're longing a bunch of the bottleneck names. Um, but we also, you know, we we also sell put credit spreads on all of our names to generate income. So, we try to do like a 30% yield with unlimited upside.
When you take a look at how the AI trade has progressed since 2022 um into now, first it started with an explosion of large language models and and the usage of chat GBT um and it made sense to be positioned accordingly uh to for software that were that was aligned with LLMs. Now in 2026, you're talking about bottlenecks. Do you think that the evolution of AI from an investment standpoint has progressed according to what would be your expectations in the last three years and according to I guess how tech usually has progressed and evolved in past cycles when new technology was introduced.
Yeah. And it fits in perfectly with something we teach people. We call it the thematic investment hierarchy. So you want to start with all right what what is a theme? So let's say AI then you want to look at all right who are the obvious winners. So AI who's the obvious winner Nvidia. All right but everyone knows that now. Then you want to look at all right who are the suppliers to the winners? Who are the suppliers to the suppliers? Who are the suppliers to those suppliers? And you keep peeling that onion and that's how the trade keeps going. But you want to constantly be ahead of of where the crowd is. So again, you know, yeah, memory, photonic, space. Now, I would be buying space, you know, I mean, our space ETF, you know, it came out uh March March 11th. In like two months, it doubled. And, you know, now it's gotten its butt kicked ever since SpaceX has come out. Now's the time I'd be buying it. You know, we had a bunch of people on Twitter like, "Oh my god, it's up 100%. I'm gonna buy." And I'm sitting there like, "Oh god, I don't know that I would do that here."
Okay, what is the space ETF? How a lot of companies involved in exploration and you know, launching satellites are not public. So what's in it?
So what's in it are the kind of 16 I think we've got now pure play names. So we have SpaceX, obviously, Rocket Lab, Lunar, Fly, Redwire, ESTS, Aridium, Spire, you know, the pure play space names, not the Lockheed Martins and the Boeings and things like that that Yeah, maybe they touch on space a little bit, you know. So, it's going to be volat and again I mean it it doubled in, you know, it doubled in two months and you know, now it's come back down a lot. Now is the time they'd be buying.
How do you monetize the space industry? When people first looked at a lot of people when they first looked at SpaceX's financials, they were kind of surprised to learn that a majority of the revenues for SpaceX didn't come from rocket launches. It came from the satellite service known as Starlink.
Yeah. And uh you know it started off as a rocket company. Now it's m mostly maintaining Starlinks in space. So what uh what's the future of monetization in space is my question.
I I love space because first off you're going to have data centers in space. Not going to be tomorrow. Not going to be the next day.
So just on that note, why why do we need data centers in space? We don't have enough room on Earth. Seems like
we don't have enough room on Earth. You don't want one in your backyard. I don't want it in my backyard.
Where are they? Where do we have unlimited real estate? We have unlimited real estate in space. What we also have access to in space 24/7, depending on where you're pointing, is solar energy, which we don't have down here. But you're going to need an entire infrastructure. You're going to need to get stuff up, get stuff back. You're going to need to defend it. But then you're going to see much more. You're going to see mining in space. One kind of fun fact that if anyone's ever watched Scarpetta on Amazon, they'll know is you can't make body parts in a gravity environment. You can make them in space. So, we're going to see different types of manufacturing of things that don't work in a gravity environment that work in zero grav also in space. So, I I think we're not even in the first innings of space. Now, is it going to be, you know, the Rocket Labs and the Luners and those guys? Who knows? Uh, but right now, those are your pure play space names.
Okay. Tell us about your most recent ETF launch.
So, this morning we launched RAM RAM. It is 2x of Roundill's DRAM ETF. So, if you like the and you know and if you bought it today, Micron is now up 12%. I I would assume it's uh going to be doing pretty well. So, you know, if you like this memory trade, you really like this memory trade, it gives you a way to 2x it. We also have DRMP, which is, you know, DM and some memory stocks with put spreads for income. And then we have our 1x version, which is HBMX. We've got kind of a more diverse group of memory names and we don't currently have Heinix and Samsung because I'm a little bit worried about Korea at the moment.
What are you worried about?
So structurally, you've got things going on specifically in Highex where someone launched a a 2x highex ETF in Hong Kong and they've scooped up all of the swap capacity on a highex. It can create stresses to the market. It happened to us with our 2x micro strategy uh ETF back in uh November of 2024. Um and Micro Strategy is a lot lower. It's not because of us but uh but still you know I I I get a little bit worried when you see kind of these stresses which is going to cause option volatility to go up and you know so we're waiting on on Heinox and Samsung for some of that to clear out.
I mean Korea has been the top performing stock index in the world this year uh driven primarily by semiconductors and and chips probably highex is to contribute to that. Uh when you look at an index like that what goes up must come down you think to yourself how long can this last nobody knows. Nobody knows where the top is. Good luck picking the top like you said but you have to ask yourself what can keep driving higher. What how would you answer that question?
So I think the potential of AI is immense and we're in a race. We're in a race with China, Russia, Europe, everybody to come up with whatever is the end result, which hopefully is not Terminator. That that would suck. Um but we're in a race to come up with this end result. And I think anything that stands in its way is going to ramp. Memory, photonics, all all of that. Um, you know, which is why I don't think we're at a top, but again, protect yourself just in case we are because no one is going to be able to call it.
Okay, great. Thank you very much. Well, Matthew, where can we learn more about you and your work?
So, our website is tuttlecap.com. We write a free daily newsletter which you just showed an example of uh where we talk about different themes, take deep dives, stocks we like, things like that. So there's a popup on the website, you know, feel free to subscribe to that. You'll we also do a lot of different webinars and things so you'll get notified of that when you sign up as well.
All right, thank you very much. We'll put the links down below. Matthew, it's a pleasure speaking with you. We'll speak with you again soon. Take care for now.
Great. Thank you.
And thanks for watching. Don't forget to use my code Lynn when you sign up to Koshi. New users who use my code lin L I N can get $10 when you sign up and trade $10 using my code link down below or scan the QR code here.