Transcription
Today's number, guys, well, it's a big one. $300 billion of private debt that's starting to look a little bit shaky. And with the information about Black Rockck just recently, no wonder banks are starting to fall. But could we be heading for a technical bare market in one of the most important sectors in the markets? And maybe more importantly, could we be starting to move towards the next key zone, the 50weekly moving average, which we discussed over this week? Well, in today's video, we need to break down the possibility of stagflation and what's going on with, of course, oil and some massive cross pairs and darkpool activity. Join us if you love stocks, commodities, or cryptos as we cover both investing and trading mindsets moving forward. See you soon, guys. This will be a massive one.
Well, welcome back everybody to what was a massive week when it comes to macro news. My name is Thomas Atinson and today we're discussing everything from what Wall Street's been up to in darkpool activity to the key flows and of course how we're interpreting them. But we need to kick things off here with this Finn Viz screener because of course financials were starting to look very shaky, particularly Wells Fargo. And I think that's where we really start today's video, which is discussing these banks.
Over the last couple of months, we've seen something a little bit shocking start to happen. And it all has to do with the flows. Now, on this channel, we love to follow the flows because, of course, that's the real thing. That's what they're actually doing, not what they're saying. And financials are now the worst market when it comes to the major sectors according to this data chat here from Koin, which we shared over on our X account. Links in the description down below as well if you want to follow that.
So, why does this matter? Well, it all has to do with cockroaches. A long while away, basically JP Diamond from JP Morgan said, "Where there's one, there's usually more." And this is starting to really come under pressure when it comes to the private equity debt. And of course, how big it is, which it's now at around 300 billion from the latest reports I've seen. And this one here from Blue Curtic over on X basically shows that Wells Fargo is potentially the most exposed. So, why is it down the most this week? Well, I think you can probably put two and two together. The market is starting to see real signs of stress within this area. And it could be just a matter of time until this actually starts to hit major bonds. And of course, if that happens, guys, it could be, of course, a massive, massive waterfall effect.
So, what is really happening when it comes to Wall Street's flows? This chart here from Subu Trade kind of shows what we've already been suspecting, which is a bad market from the financial side and of course a massive outflow that can still mean that there could be more to come when it comes to selling. Generally, when you see outflows this big, then you're usually either on the low of the market or you're starting to get closer to potentially base support. But we don't really have that just yet. We will look at the financial sector a little bit later on technically to find out where those key demand zones could be.
So what's actually happening in March? Well, it's all about the worst starts. Yeah, this is actually one of the worst starts ever to March since 1950. And in fact, over the first 10 trading days, this marks the ninth worst start. And for the first time in a while, really some complacency in the markets being taken away. And we all know why. Obviously, geopolitical conflict. Every second there's a new bit of information. I did hold this video back over the weekend to see whether we get any more information. And boy oh boy was there all sorts of things happening. Although I did check the weekend Wall Street kind of futures and they weren't down as much as you would expect. Only down about 0.1 to 2%.
So this chart here from Blue Kurdic, what's it telling us? Well, it's basically saying what does the structure do when you get into the first 10 days and if you're down, what usually happens by the end of the month. So funnily enough, if you lose less than 5% over the first 10 days, generally speaking, you are actually usually bullish by the end of the month. is in it would hover, may go lower first, and if you were over five, of course, things could go pretty bad. This time we're about 3.59% down, but predominantly does the month of March usually still end up negative? 14 of 15 cases. So it's pretty clear that the market itself still would be looking for quite a lot of consolidation base. And it's kind of like the thing we've been discussing recently, which is that when we went and broke that 20weekly moving average, we started to see the breaking of the market. Effectively, we then rallied to the 20 and now we could be heading towards the 50 or maybe even worse. There's some really key zones here that we need to look at later on. So, stick with us as we go through that.
For the first time in 8 months, the market, the NASDAQ that is, has fallen below the 200 day. Totally different market. Obviously, very different to the S&P. and it's still been going quite weak. Now, could we go a little bit worse? Yeah. Uh, is this an important point? Absolutely. And we'll check it out very, very soon.
So, Tavy Costa has also gone through, guys, and I think a lot of this is now coming back to debt. For the first time in a while, we're not just discussing flows. We're not just discussing the backbone, the semiconductor AI bubble that we're currently in. We're now talking about literal government costs in terms of central banks being able to pay off their debts. And maybe more importantly than any of this, whether we're going into a massive inflation cycle.
For anyone in Australia, because of course we are Australians, it does look like the general consensus is that we'll get a rate hike this week. And it may be the first of maybe two or even three rate hikes just off the back of not only a fairly hot economy that they've been trying to look after, but at the same time everything that's going on with oil prices. We know that's going to have an effect.
This chart here from Azeria Capital and Tavi Costa at Tavi Costa over on X. Awesome follow by the way. Great stuff on commodities there, Tavy. Shout out to you. And you can see here that national defense expenditure and then interest payable, that is payments from the federal debt. It's uh, yeah, it's gone above. Now, it's not a new story line, but of course, this is going to be the discussion that we have now that we're getting a new Fed chair very soon. Will they cut into a market that's saying you can't cut? And that could cause all sorts of issues. Remember, if you do that, what you expose the market to is the possibility of runaway inflation. Diabolical. We do not want that, guys. So, make sure to sub the channel because if that's happening this year, boy oh boy, things could get absolutely wild.
So, I thought this chart here was also a really good one from Blue Kurdic because what it shows us is that we've had a market that's been very different. Now, we've talked about this when we saw the Fed cut last year in September. It kind of marked to us, let's look at the structure. The structure happened that we saw IWM or small caps, emerging markets. These types of markets do a lot better. Now, what we're starting to see is that people are going towards safe havens. The US dollar has now picked up over the last two weeks. We've also seen the US stock market become the fifth best in terms of overall performance. And this is because of course what happens is people tend to go back to usually the superpower at the time. It's pretty common in history and it's exactly what's happening here. So it's pretty interesting chart. By the way, make sure to watch South Korea this year as South Korea has had an epic gain of like what 160 to 180% in just what 12 months. So that is a stock market that we will be checking all the time to see how it's reacting to all of this.
Let's now move over to some dark pools. What's Wall Street actually been up to heading into the weekend? Well, first up from volume leaders here, you can see there were quite a lot of cluster trades on one of the major S&P 500 funds and it all came just at the close. So, it kind of shows you here that we may be starting to find possibly the beginning of some Wall Street buy the dip style action. Doesn't mean it's found it. Remember, markets can go a lot lower than these levels, but it's certainly something we want to be watching.
Now, why is that? Well, of course, when we have these major global conflicts, and arguably, I'd say this one could be getting even bigger than most of these, then the market structure moving forward will be very important. Often what will happen is the market will initially go up a little bit, kind of like it did, then it will drop, then it could base, and then we may actually end up finding further buying pressure. So, it's really going to be, you know, what and how long does this go for? And I think one of the big reads here, guys, is going to be looking at oil and gold. uh but particularly oil from the futures contracts, we're going to be able to tell whether this market is believing that this is going to go longer and longer and longer and longer. And of course, if you're out there thinking this is going to go for a year or 2 years or whatever you may be thinking, that is going to have a dramatic implications to the overall inflation reads and of course where this stock market could be going because the longer it goes on, the bigger it gets. Of course, this is going to be a serious thing. This is a news-driven market that we're in now and obviously fear is coming through.
Speaking of fear, you'd usually think that we would be seeing gold actually skyrocketing up during times of fear, but what's actually happening is we're seeing record outflows. So, IAU, which is a major gold ETF from Subu Trade here, just saw record market outflows. And while that doesn't mean that it's the end for gold, what it does generally mean is a period of consolidation. So if we look at previous times, we've had kind of consolidation on the charts and that's something that we've been kind of paying attention to. So could be some consolidation here on the charts moving forward, guys. We're also seeing some large transactions coming through on gold. Couple of big ones here on IAU and actually one of them was the largest ever trade sitting into this area. So it suggests that there's some activity. We'll have to see how the reaction is. Is it up or down? We'll check the chart very, very soon in the video.
So Ford earnings, this is one of the big ones to keep in mind. Yes, it's fearful out there. Yes, we're not exactly sure how bad it could get. Obviously, we've got key levels to look at very soon. But Ford earnings estimates, this chart here from at Duality Research over on X. It's a pretty good one because it basically shows us that we have quite a lot of interesting earnings kind of results coming through here. And you can see that the market in general has been kind of spiking up. So, we kind of want to see this. This is the type of thing you want to see in earnings. But if it doesn't hold, that is the next earning season is bad and we're getting all of this news. Yeah, things are going to get nasty quickly. Remember, compression happens very, very fast when it comes to earnings in markets.
Let's now take a look at the charts. Then, we'll look at the options flow. And then, of course, we'll end up with all of our kind of leads, the cross pairs, all of that type of stuff because there's quite a lot of things discussed there. But the S&P 500 closed the weekly, I would say, pretty poorly. You know, if you're looking at where are we potentially moving to odds, I would usually go with something like the 50 weekly moving average, which just so happens to be right around that 6500 level. Now, why is that? Well, generally when you drop the 20, you go down, you rally up to the 20, which is something we've talked about already. Then we may see weakness, which we have, and then we may hit the 50. And the reason you say that is because when you go through history, the 20 is dropped, goes to the 50, finds a little bit of a level, drops that obviously it's, you know, that's the next time gaps underneath, but it already moved straight up. And here's another 20 and lost 50. Obviously, a little bit of buying. So, they're pretty important moving indicators. And um the reason why you want to use these is they're pretty heavily used in the industry. So, that is that a lot of guys in Wall Street pay attention to this and they are coded into a lot of the software. that is the AI kind of algorithms do like these and there are many reasons why and we discussed those actually a little bit over at FX Evolution in some of our courses if you ever want to check them out links in the description.
So let's now move towards the US 500 futures. How did it end up closing? Wasn't very good, of course. It closed on its low, signaling that usually potential further selling is to come. And that's because there was a freakout in the markets. You can see here the options high and lows that we've been looking at and of course the downward trend line that I think will be a very important zone in the future should the markets rally back up. So, of course, at the moment, it does look like general weakness is there and that rallies could be met by bears. The actual bears are in control of this market for the first time, guys, in ages. We've actually even dropped some time frames in terms of technical movements towards the bare side. You can see here a bit of a drop, breakthrough, not exactly what you want to be looking for. High volumes as well coming through. So, it's not like just a couple of people that are transacting in these areas.
So, let's have a look now at the S&P and of course the key zones here. As we move down towards 6,600 and 6,500, we start to look where are the most amount of puts and it's clearly a put driven market because we're now in negative gamma, which basically means that potential hedging needs to happen from Wall Street. And the key zones seem to be around that 6,500 zone over the next session or so. And then of course the possibility of even holding 67. If we stay low, then this creates hedging events though because there are so many stacked puts when it comes to really looking at these charts. 65 does show itself though on many of the strikes as being one of the biggest most struck areas. So that's always something to look at.
Another one that we want to check out here guys is the Q's. Of course, we want to look at the S&P, then we want to look at the NASDAQ. Where do we see most of the NASDAQ puts? Well, it was always 600 and just underneath at 595. Well, we've kind of moved underneath that. So, it kind of exposes the potential here of going towards that 585, which comes up quite a few times in different strikes. Certainly one to watch, but I think the S&P is probably the most important chart at this point.
Nvidia holding pretty well, the backbone of the US stock market at the moment. Kind of the modern-day Dow theory is often considered semiconductors. And we're not losing the biggest stock in the world at this stage. So again, the markets could hold when it comes to index opinions anyway because again, if we're not losing them, we're not actually in a full-on collapse just yet.
Tesla, tough one, really good chart, not so amazing on the options. We have, of course, here 400 as the call strike and around 380 as the put wall. So two really critical areas, something that we're we're checking out there.
When it comes to IBIT uh and everything to do with crypto, you can see here crypto is actually holding pretty well and the reason that happens is because it was also smashed down. So generally when you have a stock or a asset that's really kind of fallen off a cliff and then you have things like we've just seen, people can move into it as a partial safe haven kind of going well I have to be invested but at least we can be in something that's already been hit. And that's the type of thing you're seeing a little bit on software companies, some tech businesses, and of course also crypto. And we'll look at that very soon on the charts as well in more detail.
So just before we go through the lead indicators that are happening right now when it comes to markets and some of these key levels, I did want to mention that I'll be attending a Tiger Brokers event this week uh and doing a speech. And if you're interested in finding out more information about it, you can click on the links in the description down below. It's on Wednesday the 18th of March at 6:00 p.m. in Brisbane, Australia.
All right. Well, let's go through some of these big charts. First up, we need to talk about these bubbles because I, yeah, we'll call them a bubble because it's very rare to see a market that's up and let's just quickly mark this out again, 176% in like 12 months now. It's just recently fallen. And as we often say on this channel, when volatility hits the room or it goes into the market, you need to be starting to say probably the party's over. And that means that it becomes actually more difficult, even though more people's eyes start to go onto this pair because of the news hitting it. So what's actually going on? Well, it was a rally into a massive drop into a bit of a holding pattern. It does look like this may be possibly one of the technical tops though. So we'll be watching the Cosby and the Niki quite closely over the next couple of weeks. If you haven't seen it before, sub to the channel because you need to be watching those markets. Obviously, it's an AI story line that is a hardware story line over there.
US yields. Well, we broke up and we broke out. Basically, the problem is oil price and it's starting to head into, of course, people's expectations of CPI inflation and more importantly rate rises, rises across the world. In fact, the Australian market's obviously looking at two to three potential rate hikes. And you can see here when it comes to the yields that they've broken through this 3.6 area and that we're starting to really ramp into the next zone. So, some interesting areas uh and we'll have to be watching that. By the way, if you ever want to check out one of the best yields to check out, go to the US 10-year. It usually is detailed a little bit more by the market. You can see it hasn't quite broken up, but that actually looks like almost a Woff style base uh for for yield. So, could things be about to get worse before they get better?
Let's talk about how we may see this happen. First up, we could be seeing the dollar. Now, we already suspected the dollar was finding bulls based on the triple low. We also thought that the trend may be changing from a technical zone, and one of those reasons was that we started to get a pit or a pullback in time here on the charts, which is pretty sweet. And the market is now pushed into that 125. Now, if it breaks through this level, we're breaking to a higher high. And it kind of suggests that yeah, again, yields could be run away. And we may also be seeing oil going up pretty big. And this is going to be the charts that you want to be looking at when it comes to oil.
First up, let's look at oil to gold ratio. And you might notice that as I zoom this out, oil, even with the recent move, is actually quite cheap versus gold. Now, as a overall ratio, it's been more expensive many times in the past. And we always want to be looking at this because when you see, let's say, really expensive oil such as you did before the global financial crisis, well, that can be a significant concern. But look at the difference when it comes to where gold's at and where oil's at. It's actually been, I would say, in some ways artificially held down over time. But this does seem to be breaking out at this point. And we've got to be concerned about oil price because it really does impact inflation. It really does impact people's sentiment. And of course, the one thing that most of us do is drive cars. And I can tell you here in Australia, I put the radio on the other day and they were giving away gift cards and vouchers and all sorts of things for fuel. So, you can just get the idea here that effectively what's going on uh everyone is talking about fuel. That's all people are talking about right now because they see it. And uh, yeah, if you go into the petrol station, be careful guys. People are crazy for some of that cheap cheap oil.
Let's now have a look at the ratio and why it's important. First time in a very long time we've broken the downward trend line. That can signify, of course, a potential shift. And it doesn't mean gold's bad. It just means that oil is still actually quite cheap when you compare it to some of its most comparable asset classes. And it is a really cool chart for you to continue to watch throughout this year. Also, have a quick look just at oil itself. You can see here that it went up to 120, broke back down. That's to be expected. And at the moment, it took that high of 91, which really kind of opens up the possibility of getting back to about 100 plus a barrel. And then we'll find out whether the bears are going to push it down from there or whether it's going to continue to get out of control. If we break 120 though, guys, things could get serious on the markets. Watch the oil barrels. They will matter. I suspect we won't break 120 easily, but you never know in a market like this.
Speaking of never knowing, did we break NASDAQ down? The answer is quite simply no. We've lost of course the NASDAQ and several things 2050 cross on the moving averages but we have not taken out a lower low. So we've actually kind of held for now 24K big level here for the NASDAQ and sometimes when it's fear in the streets it's worth being bullish but I do think we need to be looking at some actual technical bases. So far, it's just been kind of sell, sell, sell. And we've also seen the backbone semiconductors, not Nvidia, but semiconductors also break below certain moving averages, trend lines, break up, and then still fall off. One of the important things here is whenever you're looking at it, also compare it to the SPY. And then what we can do is see whether it's still weaker than the general stock market, which it has been uncharacteristically just recently. So, one of the things we're going to be looking at is trend lines such as this to really see how the market continues to go with those.
Nvidia is holding for now 180, not underneath 170. So, not much to really mention about that chart. Uh, and of course, we've got here software, which has been one that we've seen a lot of activity on it recently. Still holding relatively well with that big volume. So, pulling back a little bit. uh things like maybe anchored VWAPs and stuff like that could be an interesting area uh when it comes to these markets and we can see here that we're trying to get to that level. There's also a pretty big heavy trade zone right through that middle structure. So again, software holding up well considering the market and one of the reasons is because it is already beaten down. It's the way fund flow moves and remember we follow the flows here on the channel. So it's the most important thing, not what they say. What are we doing here?
Let's move over to gold. Uh, not too good. Pretty bad close. Obviously, a couple of large transactions coming through there. Uh, but it's rallied back up to where you would usually expect resistance. And of course, since that volatility came in a little bit over two months ago or month and a half ago, uh, you know, we're still kind of in that sideways action. So, be a little careful out there with gold and silver. I think a lot of eyes on it when everyone's looking at something. H, it's not as usually good.
Bitcoin pretty good chart-wise. Much better than you'd expect considering everything else. We took out 72,000 over here, so that's 72K plus that kind of started to break up action. Volume is generally pretty big. It's not a definitive base, but it certainly does look a little bit better on the charts.
And Tesla still maintaining the sell-off here when it comes to every daily 20 just moving on the way down. So, you know, critical level there and of course interesting movements towards the downside.
Chinese markets holding better than you would expect considering what's happening in the US. You can see here that important 25,000 level. It's why it's so important to look at the high-end time frame technicals. And for now, it's doing a little bit of a pullback. I guess you just don't want to see it make a lower low. So, actually basing okay, considering everything that's going on.
So, guys, what is in store for the week ahead? Let's have a look here at the Forex Factory calendar. And there is a lot. We've got Australian overall. We've got Canadian CPI. Then we have Australian cash rates. So obviously expected to be a rate hike and a press conference around that. Then we've got PPI in America, which is going to be a pretty big deal, I think. And then of course the federal funds rate. What is going on and are we expecting any more information out of the statement. So this is going to be a big one here and that's on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time. So make sure to pay attention to that. It's going to be a pretty big deal. Uh further things to look at, obviously we want to be checking out all this news because there's quite a lot going. But generally speaking, I think the big thing here is really just going to be down to what's the Fed saying and more importantly the geopolitical situation. That is a minute-by-minute day-by-day thing. And I didn't want to mention it too much in this video because really, you know, what we have to look at is kind of the charts uh and we have to look at what's starting to happen in the debt markets. And what we do know is that there's a little bit of flinching going on because otherwise we would not see financials down as much as they are.
So speaking of financials, let's just go back to the charts for a moment. Have a look at financials and they are moving lower. We've broken through the 50 area. We're starting to head towards the possibility of 46 kind of area which is going to be a big area and I think an important zone. Uh and yeah, I mean that's that's going to be super critical. So, it doesn't look like there's a buy support just here. And if you're going down, uh, then of course in one of the most important sectors, that's starting to show some signs of weakness. We can also look at corporate bonds. Look at corporate bonds, guys. Whoa, they've dropped off as well. And that's in, of course, high quality corporate bonds. If we look at junk for a second here, junk is falling even more. So, this is the first flinch from the bonds market. And it is the first time we've seen this in like almost a year and that is a huge deal. So, uh, yeah, big breakouts, big breakdowns near the close. It's generally suggesting that we haven't seen a bid from Wall Street just yet and things could get more nasty before they get good.
To watch the general video and of course to watch kind of what we're looking for next, we're going to be really checking out, I think, some big things here. Specifically, we're going to be looking at the 50w weekly moving average on the S&P. And like we said last video, this is going to be, of course, one of the defining areas.
So, have a great weekend, guys. And if you are in Brisbane, Australia, just a reminder, the Tiger Brokers event is at 6:00 p.m. on the 18th of March, and it is totally free event. Thanks so much. You have a great weekend. Bye for now.