Transcription
Hello everybody, and thank you for tuning into the Liberty Report. With us today, we have Daniel McAdams as our co-host, and Daniel, I understand we have a very special guest today. His name just happens to be Gerald Cente, and he's a pretty smart guy. He knows what the future's going to bring under his rules, you know. But anyway, we're lucky to have him because we've had him before. He's participated in our events, and uh, he's always been one of our most popular speakers when he's come to our convention. So, Gerald Cente is uh, the author of the Trends Research magazine. He's been around a long time, probably before I was born. So, anyway, Gerald, it's great to have you with us today. I'm glad you could join us.
>> Oh, I'm honored. Honored, honored as can be to be on with you. You're the last, you're the last person I voted for for president back in 2012. And if you were president today, America would be the country that all our parents and grandparents and people around the world wanted to come to. A place that was the land of opportunity. And uh, it breaks my heart to see what's happened. And I thank you so much for all you do and um, and for what you and Daniel McAdams do. And it's, again, I'm heartbroken. I just, it's so sad to see the demise of our uh, country. You know, Trump is at, you know, Davos, and he, this is what he said yesterday. He said, um, "Sometimes you need a dictator." And that, "I'm a dictator." I mean, you can't make this up. It should, and it should scare a few people. So, it is positively amazing. You know, I did a little program today, just a spot, uh, point about why, why do politicians fib or lie or, you know, distort? And why, why do they have to do this? And sometimes they change their mind so much, you can't even keep up. So, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a difficult situation. You know, during that campaign that uh, you gave me support, uh, you know, people will ask me, and of course, I'm, I'm, I'm a little bit embarrassed. They said, "Well, how'd you do?" I said, "Well, not, not so well." I said, "But I did come in third, so we're on our way." We, we here at the Liberty Report like to be as positive we can. And I think the first most important thing to be positive and help people make decisions is to understand why we get into these conditions rather than just saying, "What are you going to give me to get us out of this? Will you print us more money?" I get that a lot of times when I was in Congress. But anyway, I know you have some great ideas and you keep tabs of the market. So, you want to make a, give us a, a couple hits on what, what the trend is. I think the trends need a little boosting. So, we have one rule though, at least once during the program, we have to say something very positive. So, I am sure we can get that. So, Gerald, thank you very much again for being with us today.
>> Well, thank you. You know that old song, "You got to accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative." Yeah, remember that one? Back in the '30s, when going back again, think about it, the Great Depression. I have a photograph of my parents' wedding, may they rest in peace, 1934. One of my books, "What Zizzy Gave Honeyboy." Zizzy is the Neapolitan dialect for auntie. It was about growing up in the Bronx and what life used to be. And here's a, I don't know if you can see this, but here, here's a picture of their wedding, 1934, the Great Depression. My father worked in a fish store. They worked. They were laborers. The, my aunt worked at a factory, you know, putting things in boxes. That was the American spirit. So, yeah, we got to accentuate the positive and bring back America to where it's going to go. And on the economic front, I mean, as we're going on the air, let's see. Gold, $4,880 an ounce, up $49. Silver, $95.42. $95. Okay. Gold is up about $250 in a week. And you know, one of my first books, uh, "Trend Tracking, Far Better Than Mega Trends," Time magazine, I talked about how I started buying gold during the Iranian conflict back in 1978. And that's when I became a political atheist. By the way, they taught us to hate Iran without anybody, not anybody, without 99% of the people knowing about the United States overthrow the democratically elected government of Muhammad Mossadegh back in 1953 in Iran because he had the nerve to say, "Oh, that oil belongs to the Iranian people, not Anglo-Iranian Oil, better known today as BP, or Standard Oil, better known today as ExxonMobil." And so when everybody started hating Iran, that's when I became a political atheist and I started buying gold back then at $100. I think it was about $163 an ounce. $160. And now $4,880. Why? Because one of the reasons why the world has had enough of America's geopolitical and socioeconomic age, and it's the beginning of the end of the, it's the death of the dollar. Back then, when gold prices started going down, Reagan became president. Matter of fact, I have a photograph of me, him, and his, me and him. Him. I put on a brunch for 16 of our board of directors when I was 30 years old, 1976. And we, I was the number two guy running a trade show. And after the trade show, we have a speaker, and it's two days before his running against Jerry Ford. But anyway, Volcker raises interest rates. That's what brought down gold prices. What? 18, 20% interest rates. Now, what does Trump want to do? He wants to lower interest rates. So, it's the death of the dollar, and the world has had enough of the United States geopolitical and economic hegemony. And the BRICS now control some 40% of the world's gross domestic product. And you go back to 1978, America was number one. China, what did they have? Maybe about a billion people back then. Their gross domestic product was under $150 billion. Today, around $20 trillion. So, it's very important to see what's going on. And again, I've been at this for 46 years. Never have I seen gold prices go up like this, and silver prices, because it's a warning that people want safe haven assets.
>> Well, I'm not going to challenge anything you, you said, because I think I've been looking at this and maybe a couple years longer. But Daniel, I'm sure has an opinion about this. But uh, I want Daniel to join in here and talk to our friend Gerald.
>> Well, Gerald, thanks again for joining us. It's great to have you. We used to do this more often. I don't know what happened the last couple years. We've, we've, we've not had you on in January. I mean, you, you, you know, it's very important. If, if, I guess my first question would be, if we want to do like three bumper sticker boom boom, what are the top three trends or however many you want to say? What's the top things for people to look out in '26?
>> Well, one of them is, um, uh, it's something again in tracking trends. It's not what you like, what you want, what you wish for, it's what is. And there's going to be a Gen Z revolution. Yeah, I'm a New Yorker, right? I'm a Napoli born in the Bronx, and uh, 1946, the same age as Trump. And I know New York. They elected a guy, Zoran Mandani, that nobody ever heard of. Nobody ever heard of this guy in the biggest city in America. How come? Gen Z. They're broke and busted. They got no jobs. Again, when Ron Paul is a couple years older than me, but uh, and you look in great shape, and I hope I'm as good as you when I get there. It used to be grocery stores, hardware stores, uh, drugstores, shoe stores, uh, butcher shops, fish stores. Now everything's a chain. They don't have a chance. They're the ones that made him win. You look at the data. That's why he wiped out Cuomo in the primaries. Gen Z. Now, let's take the global view. Serbia, oh, what just happened this week? Gen Z took to the streets a couple of weeks ago. Oh, Gen Z overthrew the government of Bulgaria. Gen Z. Oh, in Nepal, Gen Z, in Kenya, Kenya, uh, Madagascar, Morocco, Tanzania. Gen Z's are taking to the streets all over. They have no money. Now, again, you make connections between different fields. You know, people forget that Trump tried to overthrow Maduro back in, um, 2019, 2020, and he brings this little clown boy to Congress. Um, uh, Juan Guaidó. This is the real president of Ukraine. And you know what he called? You know what he called Maduro back then? A socialist dictator. And by the way, everybody in Congress, stand up and gave Guaidó a standing ovation. Now, what's this guy Mandani call himself? A democratic socialist. That's where it's headed. And it's very important to see that. Another top trend, again, you're going to see more and more of. They, they have nothing. They have nothing. Child-free childcare. I don't want to pay for your kids. You take care of your own kids. My mother raised me. Oh, you're putting your kid in a nursing home that you call for a daycare center? Why do you think all these kids look like crap and they're all blimped out? Because they're feeding them junk food, and you're out of your mind as your kid, and you don't have a, a family raising your grandmother, aunts, uncles, parents, whatever. You got strangers raising you. Now, I don't want to pay for this, but they want it. And that's where it's going. Hey, you're not, you can't raise the rent on anything. Hey, yeah, but my insurance went up. The cost of your taxes, you keep raising them. Yeah, but you can't raise your rent. So, I'm telling you, there's going to be a Gen Z revolution, and it's going to go more and more towards socialism. And a very important trend to watch out is dot combust 2.0. We call the, the dot-com bust in the Trends Journal was a quarterly. Now it's a weekly. Back in autumn of 1999. Again, trends are born, they grow, they mature, reach old age, and die. You don't invest all your money in the infant that was born in 2022. AI. And that's what's happened. They've overinvested in these companies. Now, again, you make connections between different fields. This is a t-shirt that I did when Bill Clinton ran for office in 1992. This is the guy. Get those jobs out of here. Bring them to, bring them down to NAFTA over there in Mexico. And then again, has all to do with AI. Then he brought China into the World Trade Organization 25 years ago. 25 years ago, 10% of Chinese 18-year-olds went to college. Today, almost 70%. That's right. And they're not taking courses in transgender studies. They're taking courses in things that could advance them in technology, heavy industry, on and on and on. And again, we only put the facts in the Trends Journal magazine. China is investing very heavily in AI. AI, love it, hate it, want it, it's the future. And they are going to take over the AI world, and there's going to be a dot-com bust, and it's going to crash the equity markets just like it did the last time. And what no one talks about is the office building bust. Go back to 2020. Can't go out. Get back in your house. You can't go to work. All right. Now, not my data. Look at Moody's. Place called Louisville, Kentucky. The Kentucky Derby. Oh, yeah. Office vacancy rate, 40%. 40% vacant. Hey, how about my kind of town? Chicago is 28% vacant. 28% vacancy rate. And you're looking at uh Denver, Colorado, Seattle, Washington, St. Louis, uh, Kansas City, one major city after another. Dallas, Dallas, depending on the numbers, between 28% vacancy rate in downtown Dallas to to um, uh, 32%. Depending on whose numbers you're looking at. Okay, what does that mean? Let's go back to 2023. Three banks went bust. Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic, and Signature. Nobody ever heard of those street banks. What happened? Down go the equity markets. Up go gold, gold prices. There's going to be failures. I can't pay the loan. I can't, keep the, keep the building. I don't want it. I don't want it. There's going to be defaults on these loans, and the banks don't have the money to cover it because when they got all that cheap freight money when they started pumping up after when the co-war began, the, it was zero interest rate policy. So the treasuries they have, and nothing to, to, to cover this loan.
>> You're going to see banks going bust, and that too is going to bring down the equity markets. So those are some of the top trends that we're looking at.
>> And Dan, Daniel, do you have a follow-up on that?
>> No, go ahead, Dr. Paul.
>> Okay. I want to suggest another thing, another subject, really. Even though I think they're all in the same subject. I referenced the time I was, you know, in a presidential campaign, and it was announced to the candidates that, well, we're going to talk about economics this week, but next week we're going to talk about foreign policy. And I can't separate the two. I think foreign policy is an economic event. And
>> And I think this is the, this is the case. And you just gave an excellent, uh, you know, warning to the people on what's, what's going on. And uh, but they don't want to, they don't want to hear the truth because it's difficult. And the politicians have to distort the whole thing to try to fool the people. But I think what you're describing is the people are getting sick and tired of it all and are not, not being, you know, supportive as, as they used to be. But, uh, on this foreign policy, you know, everything is for, you know, there just as you described, there's reasons why you have to feed the, feed the kids. You don't want them to starve, but everything is national security. And I was on the receiving end of that. That you're not for national security. You're against the troops. You don't want freedom, and you won't support all, all that stuff. But to me, and Daniel is a real expert on, you know, you know, national security and foreign policy. And I'll tell you what, I don't know how you can support them. And most empires, uh, dissipate because of stupid economic policy, but also because they get into too many wars.
>> 100% right. Hey, again, let's go back. Let's go back when Trump was running for president in 2024. "We want to have peace on Earth all over." That was September 25th, 2024. "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars." That was October 20th, 2024. Couple of days ago, when he, you know, a year ago on January 20th, "I want immediate peace. I'm moving quickly." This is January 25th of last year. "I'm moving quickly to end wars, settle conflicts, and restore the planet to peace. I want peace." And what's his New Year's resolution? Peace on Earth. And what does he do right after New Year's? He kidnaps the uh, president of Venezuela and his wife. What, what did he bomb? He bombed Somalia about 120 times. 130 times since he's been office. Bombed Nigeria. Bombed Yemen. Bombed Iran. Bombed Iraq. How can you get away with this stuff? And again, as you know, I launched Occupied Peace over a decade ago. So, we're on the same thing. And once upon a time, there was this guy by the name of George Washington, a real man that fought, not like all these other guys that got draft deferments that love war. And and uh, what's his farewell address? He says to the American people, "Don't get involved in these foreign entanglements." Basically, this stuff has been going on for centuries, and we're not going to fix it. We have to defend our country. Don't love a nation or hate a nation because if you do, you become a slave to them. Now, let's go back to Trump. Let's go back to February of last year. Uh, "I'm going to cut that defense budget by $500 billion." And what did he do last week? "I'M GOING TO INCREASE THE DEFENSE BUDGET BY $500 BILLION to 1.5 trillion." All right. All right. I mean, how could he get away with this stuff? Oh, and before I forget about the dot-com bust, I want to add this into it. If you don't believe it, look what happened just about a year ago now when DeepSeek came in. Oh, a Chinese company, huh? Oh, yeah. We don't need $100 million to build our AI. We did it for $6 million. Again. So, I'm, I'm just telling you to put all these things together. And and and so when all else fails, they take you to war. And that's my other one of the top trends. World War III may become official this year.
>> That's for sure. That's a worry. That's that's really too bad. Do you see? Um, let's see if we could find. We might have to search a little bit. What, what is the most positive thing that you have seen? We've heard the rhetoric, and that's supposed to fool the people, and you get a little upset when he's, they're trying to fool the people with more, more mischief and fibbing and lying about it. But uh, there, there are some things that I think that uh, you know, you, you, you know, say calling attention to some of the outrageous spending. The unfortunate thing I see is yes, they can point that out and and get support, but they never follow through. And I think that's partially your point. Well, you know, uh, again, you know, I was the assistant to the secretary of the New York State Senate. Like you. I've been on the other side. Again, we presidents, prime ministers, and princes. I, I know what the thing is. People call it a government. I call it a crime syndicate. By their deeds, they're murderers and thieves. Again, let's go. I mean, you're talking about the, let's go back to 2007, 2008. What the Federal Reserve dump in? And I know you're a big fan of the Federal Reserve.
>> What, what did they bail out the bankster bandits to? um $29 trillion, according to the Levian Student Bar College. How about that guy? What is that play? JP Morgan Chase convicted of five felonies. Oh, they rigged the precious metals market back in 2019. Hey, yeah, but we paid $900 million. Shut up. All right.
>> Again, it's, it's, it's a crime syndicate. So, the positive thing is that when you look at the numbers, the poll data, the people are disgusted with both parties. They're disgusted with the mainstream media. It's a time for a third party like never before. And we need a person with the soul and spirit of a Ron Paul to lead it. And a, a thing that to bring back here. This is a dirty word. Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. What do you mean, liberty? I shut up. I'm going to, you don't say that. You're not allowed. Oh, what did they do to that woman down in Florida because she came out against the genocide over there or something in Israel? And the, and the, and the cop, the guy sends the cops over to her? You no freedom. No freedom. No freedom of speech. Life, liberty. No, you do. I, I'm in charge. I'll tell you what to do. Get back in your house and listen. Co's going on. Put on that mask. Stand six feet apart. The wind blows exactly in straight lines every six feet. But when you go in a restaurant, you better wear that mask. But when you sit down, you could take it off because Co knows when you're eating and drinking, so it won't bother you. All right? And happiness has become a dirty word. It's become a dirty word. No happiness. And I'll tell you, I'll tell you really, uh, to me, what we need is a renaissance. We need to bring back the spirit of our parents and grandparents that made this country what it was. Again, you know, back in the day, I was the number two guy running, running a major trade association. And after the events, we, for the people that exhibited, we put on a, a show for them. And this is in Atlanta about 1977. And I did one with Ella Fitzgerald. And went backstage. She said to my former wife, "You look like my goddaughter, Carmen." Ella Fitzgerald. You ask young people, Ella Fitzgerald, Louis Armstrong, Count Basie, Duke Ellington, never heard of them. Never heard of them. America, American music used to be our greatest export. The whole world loved it. You listen to those things back in World War II coming out of Germany with, and, and the American troops are listening to it. Oh, hello there, Yankees. You know, and they're playing swing music. You better not come in here. That it was America's greatest export. We need to bring back the spirit of this country when people all around the world wanted to come here, and now they want to get out. And oh, by the way, look at the travel data coming into this country. It's way down. So, that's what we need. We need a renaissance.
>> You know, what we have, um, is said to be free markets, and it's gone bad. Capitalism is bad. And they use those words carelessly. And therefore, they, what we need is socialism. Of course, Mises understood this very clearly. He, he called it correctly by calling it even making this a, a system of corporatism and crony capitalism. And his prediction was that we would do that, we would move to a fascist system. And I think you described that movement moving rather quickly in that direction. And uh, I, I think it's this understanding that, yeah, and I, I blame the universities for so much of this. They, they don't, they never heard of Austrian economics in a university. That's the worst place to get your economics. So, they, they, they, they do this, and they, they just get fed these lies and innuendos. And then, then we have these electorates. That's why I think your, uh, your pessimism that you expressed on the problems we have is very real. Then they say, "Well, well, that, you know, it's a two-edged sword. They said, 'Democratic socialism.'" Well, we know most Americans say, "Oh, no. We don't want socialism. We, we want, we want democracy." Of course, the founders hated democracy. And that dictatorship is the best that we have yet. So, if either you or Daniel have a comment on why I think that, I'd like to hear it.
>> Well, go ahead, Daniel. Well, actually, I was, it's, it's, I mean, I think Gerald makes a good point about the generations, uh, the Gen Z's. We talked about it on the show the other day, Dr. Paul, about how they're also political atheists. And Gerald hits it on the head. And we deal with a lot of this when we did the Ron Paul Scholar Seminar. And we're, you know, there is a new trend, uh, the young generation, and even, um, and even, uh, uh, it's, it's well known now that the young generation, uh, has a different view of the Middle East, for example. They don't support Israel like the, like the Boomers do. Uh, and I think that's a big trend. But I did want to ask you one thing, Gerald, before we have to go, um, because you're, you're, you're so negative about President Trump. He just wants peace. I mean, today they signed the Charter of the Board of Peace. I don't see how you can criticize that, Gerald. Please, please don't tell us that you're against Trump's Board of Peace.
>> Yeah. Look what they're doing in Israel. Breaks my heart. You know, it, uh, I, you know, I, I gotta, I write a magazine a weekly, and I have to read, read, read. And, um, it just breaks my heart to see what's going on, to slaughter the Palestinian people. And how, look at, look at all of Europe, how they came out against what was going on in Iran a couple of weeks ago. But they won't come out against what's going on in Israel with the genocide in front of everybody's eyes. And again, we only put the facts in there. Looks what's his name? Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, Trump's son-in-law. Go back to 2024, March. That land in Gaza is very, quote, valuable waterfront property. Oh, now they have what they call a yellow line. You can't cross that yellow line. Oh, they, we just, oh, they just killed 11 Palestinians yesterday. That doesn't make the news. So, you know, it's, it's very sad. There's not going to be any peace. It's about stealing. Oh, the, the, the, what is it? The Riviera. He wants to make the Middle East Riviera. Trump. Oh, and look at all the deals he's doing with Qatar, Saudi Arabia. Oh. Oh, Saudi Arabia gave Jared Kushner what? $2 billion to start his company.
>> Oh, where did Netanyahu used to stay when he came to America? Oh, at Kushner's house, his, his father's house over there in Jersey. I mean, you know, George Carlin said it, "It's one big club, and you ain't in it." And, and, and before I forget about what Dr. Paul said about, uh, fascism. It was this Italian guy by the name of Mussolini. The merger of state and corporate powers is fascism. And you got it right in front of your eyes. Oh, that guy Lutnik Wutnik over there yesterday in Davos saying, "Capitalism. It's not capitalism. It's fascism." And the merger of state and corporate powers. Oh, we just got into Intel. Oh, yeah. We're only going 25% or 10%, whatever it is. Merger of state and corporate powers. Look at all the people again. The, the, they're writing story, story, story after story, article after article about all these people that gave Trump tens of millions of dollars, all the deals they've gotten. Again, you know, this isn't, this isn't America. It, it's not the land of opportunity. You have no money. You can't run for anything. Oh, where they get this woman that up in Maine that that Trump doesn't like. It was an article in the Wall Street Journal the other day or yesterday about, um, how Trump doesn't like her, but she's raised $40 million already to run in the midterms. $40 million.
>> What kind of America is that? It's fascism, right? You know, um, this, this whole thing that we're dealing with is very difficult to sort out for a lot of people. And uh, I think though that, uh, there are some positives. I, we sense that. I actually, it's in spite of all the nonsense that went on in the presidential campaigns, as a, and me as a candidate, uh, I met a lot of young people, and I've been favorably impressed with that. They are more open-minded than than the, I call them the chamber of commerce people, you know, because they are part of, you know, the government system. So I think there are, and, and the internet. I, I'm not very good on technology, but boy, I recognize it when it's a benefit. The fact that we can have this conversation, Gerald, I think it's wonderful. And we might have, you know, I used to brag when I, before I was into any political thing, I said, "Oh, I, I, they knew I was interested in libertarianism. I'd go to a college campus, they'd get 15 or 20 people out for me." I said, "You know, I thought that was wonderful." Now, you know, Gerald, start off, bet we have more than 1,500 people today, or a lot more. We don't know. So, I, I look at the positive. And we, our pamphleteering offers us an opportunity. It's a matter of fact, our effort has to be change people's minds and hearts and get them to love liberty as much as they want to love big government. So, I, go ahead, Gerald, finish up. Let us know exactly where our viewers can stay in touch with you.
>> Well, they go to TrendsJournal.com. TrendsJournal.com. Or Gerald Centi, or Trends Journal on YouTube. But just to follow up on what you're saying, uh, you, you've nailed a lot of things very quickly. And one of them was about social media. And again, I'm, I'm a guy without a cell phone, by the way. And, uh, the, and I don't, I'm not good at social media. Mandani won because of social media. Again, I read every article I could when this was happening in New York City. And again, you talked, uh, Daniel talked about the young people being anti what's going on in Israel. New York City is the biggest Jewish populated city in the world outside of Israel. And he won. But going back, the social media is what made it happen. And going back to what you're talking about, the young people, and the woman running it was like 28 years old. And that's what you need. You got to get into that. That is the future. But the other thing is the only way I see it changing is a new third party, and the people are ready for it. And all of these billionaires, they, Oxfam just came out with an article. Uh, "Billionaire wealth jumps three times faster in 2025 to highest peak ever." How about you billionaires putting money in for a third party of "We the People"? You put that money in there, the whole thing could change like that. As we used to say in the Bronx, "Money talks, BS walks."
>> You know, you talk about a third party, but, uh, when I look at it sometimes, I, I've been looking for the second party because I don't, I don't see two parties competing. You know, they're all in bed together. So,
>> You're right.
>> You're right.
>> But anyway, Gerald, I want to thank you once again for being with us today. And hopefully, we can get together again and meet up with some people in an audience where we might get some direct questions from our viewers. But thank you for being with us.
>> I am, I'm truly honored to be on with you. I, there's no man I respect more than you on the planet, and I'm so grateful for all you've done, the courage that you have, and how you stand up. And Daniel, at Adam, and stand up for the true meaning of the human spirit that's vanished. So, I'm, I'm, I'm honored. I'm truly honored and very, very thankful for being on with you.
>> Well, Gerald, thank you very much. And I want to thank our viewers for tuning in today. Please return to the Liberty Report.