Stop Losing Your Fantasy Football Draft In the Middle Rounds

Look, we can spend an entire summer talking about 300 players. We absolutely will on this channel. Hit subscribe, by the way.

But Hayden, when you whittle it down, when you're on the clock, your fantasy football draft comes down to picking player A versus player B. And that decision can really define your entire fantasy season. So, that's what today's show is all about. A round by round, this player versus that player battle to the death.

>> Yep. Rounds three through round seven is kind of the range we're talking about. A really important range. We're going to have videos about the first and second round in entirety. So, this next range, I like to go player by player here. And you really kind of group these players together, like in your head, and when you sit there and actually make your notes all the way through. I came out with like pretty clear winners and losers for each one of these categories. Even though going into this, I'd had them back toback my own rankings.

>> Yeah, the top 24 is kind of stable all summer. Again, we will do re-rankings of those first rounds. Those are some of your favorite videos all summer long. Uh, but I would say like this rounds three through seven is where we can differ most from ADP and we can gain the most advantage versus where players are drafted to. So, let's dive into the first one. We're going to start off in that third round. Talk about two running backs here. Bruce Hall, who's the fifth pick of the third round versus Travis Etien, who's the seventh pick of the third round. Which one are you taking?

>> I love Travis ETN. I bumped him up after doing all the research here. He's cleared, 1300 total yards in three of his four seasons. His lone miss was when he was unhealthy. He had coach Peterson. I think this is the best environment he's ever been in for fantasy points. Coach Kell Moore is very functional. He's been that way at every single one of his stops. Tyler Shuck looks like an emerging quarterback. The Saints were first and neutral pace uh last season. They couldn't create explosives, but in comes a first round wide receiver. In comes a veteran guard. Both of their tackles look awesome. Shuck going into the second year. And then we obviously know when he's playing behind a good offensive line, which he rarely has in his career, he can rip off the explosives. I would say the Saints offensive line is pretty good. So there's going to be almost no competition behind him. I'm assuming Alvin Chimera is going to retire or get released or he's just Alvin Chimera from last year, which was one of the most ineffective rushers out there. It's Devin Neil, Ty Chandler, Kendry Miller, Audrey Estay behind him. Last year he was the RB11 on the RB14 usage. Uh I think that this 874 rushing yards in the picking lobby is too low. I think that he has a chance to be a top 12 fantasy running back this season.

>> Yeah, some of the Alvin Camra quotes coming out of Saints offseason activities are kind of even questioning if he even exists on that roster at this moment and we'll see what happens the the rest of the summer. Like you pointed out, there's just one I would say negative spot on that offensive line and it's Cesar Ruiz at right guard. The rest are really good players, first round tackles and then David Edwards who they signed from the Buffalo Bills who start at left guard from them. And the number one point that you bring up, I mean, Kevin Moore's offenses, it doesn't matter where he goes. LA, Dallas, Philadelphia, and here at the Saints, they will be top three in place no matter what. And that's going to carry over once again. So, you know, we had two drastically different past two seasons here from Travis Han. Travis Achan, Josh, Travis Achan, running back 41 in points per game in 2024 versus running back 10 in points per game in 2025. My only two concerns here. One, he did not rush for a 100 yards in a game after week four of last season. That's coming from a Liam Cohen offense, which we know, and we'll talk about other running backs that he has coached, is just fantastic in rushing departments. And this is from our buddy Ryan Heath. If we look at expected fantasy points per game by play callers to running backs, Kell Moore actually ranks 30th over the last few seasons. So, was that a talent deficiency thing? And did they change that by going out and getting Travis Han in basically the first day of free season?

>> Yeah, I would like to see that number without last season when the Saints I mean they just gave up running the ball as they should. Um but yeah, I think that fast-paced offense and you have some explosives with a I think it's just going to be pretty obvious that it's I will also note this. They're the Saints are 24th in projected points according to the betting markets this year. That feels too low. Like they were pretty much like that last season and I think it's going to go up from there. We're definitely going to do a show on projected points for each of these offenses, talk about the top 10, and pick out some of our favorites that will over underperform because as we talk about every single offseason, that's where you can find really the draft gems uh in your fantasy league.

>> Hey, now I'm going to go against you. I'm going to pick Bree Hall for this one.

>> Um, look, running back nine in points per game coming off that knee injury in 2023. That's what we've been chasing over the last two years. But still, I mean, he's been running back 21 in points per game, running back 18 the year before that. Um, and he's played in bad offenses and still 1300 total yards in three straight seasons. So, to me, yards have never been the problem for Bree Hall. It's just about touchdowns and touchdowns happen more often when you're on better systems and better offenses. I think from a talent perspective, Hayden, this is the most talented offense that he has been a part of. Whatever you think about Gino Smith, he is better than what he's had in recent past. Obviously, the pass catchers, wide receivers, and namely the offensive line investment that's that this team has. So, four, five, five rushing scores over the last three years, just one receiving touchdown last year. Unfortunately, as you brought up, the Jets are predicted for the second fewest amount of points this year per game at 18.6. But call me crazy. I just have a bit of optimism that Bruce Hall, this is going to be the platform that he finally gets to showcase the talent and the rusher that he is like we saw back in 2023.

>> I'm fine with his ADP. I got him ranked 30th. His ADP is at 30th overall. Uh that point 18.6 is actually higher than what it was this last year. So, I do agree like it should be better than last year, but last year was pretty tough. The Jets were 29th in scoring. He was the RB22 on an RB20 per game finish. I will note that there were some games with Brady Cook, and if you remove those games, he was the RB17, which which makes some sense there. So, that's kind of where I have him ranked kind of in that the RB17, RB18 range. Uh the Frank Reich stuff really makes me nervous. He was fired mid-season 2022, fired mid-season in 2023. He sat out in 2024, then was the interim head coach at Stanford. Didn't even make that entire season go either. So, I agree like this should be like one of the best spots of his career. Uh he's kind of been a tease for us. And uh we'd have to make sure that Brilen Allen's not going to like go inside the five yard line, and steal some carries. I couldn't couldn't believe it. He had four inside the five yard line carries last year, Bruce Hall, the entire season. That's wild.

>> Yeah. Look, there was the Isaiah Davis, Berlin Allen conversation of last offseason. uh those have seemed quieter this offseason and Bruce Hall despite you know the very I would say less cryptic post that he's had about being a New York Jet now has totally changed after you know he was tagged and now assigned a long-term extension on top of it. So if he's healthy, >> if he's happy, I'm expecting fancy points to come from it.

>> Okay, what about this part? the receiving totals like as a prospect when he was really young there was the upside that Breeze Hall was going to catch 80 passes uh per season and then last season the entire off seasonason was all about Bruce Hall is going to catch all these passes he's the focal point of our receiving game and it just like never materialized do you think Frank Reich's going to do something about that do you think it's an Aaron Glenn thing was that just Fields like for him to get back into the top 12 conversation he's got to catch more passes because the Jets offense is just not going to be very good even if we're expecting it to a little bit better like what What are the odds? Bree Hall goes back to like the upside case where he could be one of the better receiving backs uh in the league.

>> Yeah, and you know, receiving touchdowns matter, too. I mentioned he had one receiving touchdown last year. He had three and four prior to that. So, you know, that that's that's a jump in that department. You just have to get, you know, 10, 11, 12 touchdowns to like really be a differencemaker. If you get up to, you know, 13, then that's, you know, major fantasy asset. And just from an environmental perspective, that hasn't been the case with the Jets. Uh and then from a projected team point standpoint that is not projected to be that this year either. So uh a bit concerning from from those fronts but at the end of the day while both these backfields I think are kind of barren behind their their starters uh I actually think that Bree Hall is a a better talent than Travis Han but at the same time you can easily point to the Kell Moore and Saints factor of having Han ahead of you too.

>> Yep. Yeah. We were not. We were unhelpful. Split the decision there and they're back to back in ADP. We'll keep >> all right. Maybe we'll agree on this next one. Uh let's go to the round four wide receivers and Z Flowers here. The second pick of the fourth round compared to Garrett Wilson right after as a third pick of the fourth round. Which one are you taking?

>> I'm going to go with Garrett Wilson here. Um I'm still very concerned about Frank Reich. Uh, but I do think that Garrett Wilson has established himself as one of the better wide receivers in the NFL despite having like run first quarterbacks or I mean can't throw quarterbacks out there. And I think that Gino Smith for as concerning as his tape was last year when he was throwing those interceptions. I do think he can throw the football and get some uh some receiving uh production if they're losing games uh in the back half. Uh I also wanted to mention that I think that the combination of Adnai Mitchell, Omar Cooper Jr. Kenyan Sadi. I think that's kind of overrated. I'm just not expecting a whole bunch from like rookies, even though they're first rounders. I didn't like love either one of those profiles. So, I do think that in terms of like target share, I wouldn't be surprised if Gary Wilson like just does it again. He had 27% target share from 2024 and 2025. Uh he was like an a fantasy wide receiver too over that stretch. Even with more like quote unquote target competition, I still think that Garrett Wilson is just light years better than everyone else on this offense. So, uh, to your point with Bruce Hall, I'm expecting Gino Smith to just make this offense look functional, and I think it's going to help Garrett Wilson, uh, as much as it will with Bree Hall.

>> I'm also taking Garrett Wilson, so we're on the same side here. Uh, I don't want to make it sound like this is an anti-Z Flowers take, but I have more to say on why I wouldn't take Z Flowers ahead of Garrett Wilson than why I would take Garrett Wilson ahead of Zay Flowers, if that makes sense. Like for example, last season Z Flowers finished overall, if we look at total points, which I do not when I'm looking at these players, and I'll say why. Z Flowers finished as the wide receiver 12 in total points. But then if you looked in per game numbers, Garrett Wilson actually finished ahead of Z Flowers in that department. And so per game metrics to me, and we get a lot of comments about this, right? Because I think a lot of the industry and a lot of people that play fantasy football just look at, well, how many points total did you accumulate uh out there? and that's your standing in terms of fancy assets. But to me, per game metrics kind of give a better week- toeek decision-making barometer than full season stuff because if you start 17 games uh and you get kind of not average production per se, but good production, then that volume can look better at the end of the season compared to someone who missed some games, yes, but made a bigger impact when they were available in your starting lineup. And that's what win you weeks. That's what gets you an extra two, three, four fantasy points per contest. Um, and then the other point that I've always struggled here with Z Flowers, who is a really talented football player and a really good fit on this Ravens offense, is that he's just never been a condensed field asset for them. He had 10 red zone targets this past season. That's fewer than Malik Washington had. That's fewer than Zakias had. Uh, and if you compare that to Garrett Wilson, he had 23 red zone targets back in 2024, Zlau's highest number is 13, I believe. So, that's also still playing with Lamar Jackson for the best majority of that time compared to whoever is throwing passes to Garrett Wilson. So, if I'm looking for like real touchdown upside, which in half PPR matters the most, then I just think Garrett Wilson is a better asset than Z Flowers there.

>> Zflowers red zone numbers are out of control. It's a 15.7% target share over the last two seasons inside the red zone. Outside the red zone at 28%. I mean 13% uh decrease. And that's just pretty much because he's what 5 foot8 uh 183 pounds. Um I will note with Z Flowers, this is looking like it could be his best uh season. Like last year was already career highs and receptions and yards per game. Lamar Jackson wasn't healthy and then was also way worse than he typically is like on film even when he came back from injury. Mark Andrews, I don't think we're going to like see him like bounce back. I think he's just aging. They're still not doing much at wide receiver. Like we'll see about the two rookies, but I'm not expecting a whole lot from them. And then there's always the chance if Derrick Henry goes down that they're going to pass the ball more or that uh with Declan Doyle taking over that this offense could pass the ball more, could play a little bit faster just because they've been so low out there. So I I don't dislike Z Flowers. We have the same exact read on it. Like who's more likely to score eight, nine touchdowns this year? I do think it's still Garrett Wilson, even though the offense is a lot better. If Zay Flowers does catch that many touchdowns, that he's going to be a total smash here. So, after doing notes on both these guys, I feel totally fine with their ADPs at at uh where they are. I just am leaning towards Garrett Wilson perhaps being more of a volume hog and probably an offense that's going to pass the ball more times.

>> Don't get me wrong, like Z Flowers is a better fancy asset than Garrett Wilson was last year. We ranked him higher. We drafted him higher. Um, but I just wanted to have that conversation about total points versus per game stuff because again, a lot of the total point scores were guys who were good at the game, but also just played 17 games versus if you knew that they were going to miss a game, Hayden, you and I talk about this every single week, then you can just substitute in someone else in that spot. And the per game metrics is always what I look at when I'm talking about finishes from the previous year.

>> Uh, last note for Z Flowers with Lamar Jackson active. He was half PPR's wide receiver 10 on a per game basis. 29% target share. Um so both of these guys have upside versus where they currently are at wide receiver 17 and wide receiver 18. Like easy easily either one of these guys can finish as a wide receiver n this year.

>> I think round four is the most interesting round in fantasy football right now. I mean it begins with T-Mac, then it goes to Zay and Garrett Wilson that we talked about. You get the Mechbuka stuff from last year. Luther Burton's in this one. And that brings us to our next uh duo that we're going to discuss here. the round four running backs and Cam Scataboo who's the seventh pick of the fourth round and then Bucky Irving one spot after. We got some Bucky Irving news. Let's talk about that. But which one just overall are you selecting earlier?

>> It was Cam Scataboo for me going into this and then after doing all the notes, it was very clearly Cam Scaboo. It's the same exact running back rotation as it was this past season. Um from week two uh before he dislocated his ankle, he was the RB9 and RB15 usage. He was top 10 in receptions per game on top of that. So PPR, half PPR doesn't really matter. He's a big dude. He's going to be the goal lineback. And then we have Jackson Dark talk about it that quote, "We're just going to keep giving it to Cam Scaboo until they can stop it." That's from uh hanging around Harbaugh uh through this off season. So Malik Neighbors has some injury uh concerns early on the season. Cam Scaboo seems like he's on track for week one. We can get into like the dislocated ankle and history of that. I project him to start week one, not get quite as much volume, not be quite as explosive as he was as a rookie, and still his price tag versus where he was finishing and ranking last year, it's a pretty steep discount. So, uh, we'll we'll track the injury news, but for right now, I'm buying.

>> Let's talk Katoo somewhere. Okay, 90, 104, 110, and 94 yards in his four full games out there. But I also don't want to look over this injury. like dislocated his right ankle, >> fractured his fibula, ruptured his deltoid ligament. Again, I'm going to bring up our buddy Ryan Heath over at Fantasy Points. He's going to join the show sometime this summer. It's always a fantastic episode. He went through, you know, four fantasy assets over the last few years that also suffered this fractured fibula. Anywhere from Tony Pard to Mark Andrews to Chris Godwin to Isaiah Bachco, all declined their fantasy points per opportunity in the next season. And it wasn't just a small drop down, it was a massive drop down. Also with the Giants and just through the media, how they operated reportedly were interested in Ken Walker, Travis Han, and Jeremiah Love, they landed on none of them, and they added nothing to that running back room. So on paper, that makes me want to buy into Cam Scataboo. But Hayden, to answer the question of who I'd want between Scataboo and Bucky Irving, the answer is neither. Like I want to draft Lad Mani in this round. And if he's off the board, then I'm going to draft Coulson Lovelin and that's how I'm going to operate here in round four.

>> I think it's totally fine. I love Coulson Love, Lad Man, all these wide receivers. I think with Cam Scataboo, we are also adding Francis Malinoa, a blocking uh guard to the equation. This team could not block well inside the red area. Uh and Jackson Gart Dart going into his second season. So, there's like some upside here where the J the the Giants offense goes from one of the worst last year to pretty functional. I think that would kind of offset some of the dislocated ankle stuff. It is a small sample size of this type of injury that we're going off of. Like you said though, it's like four for four. That's been pretty bad. Um, so I I would I would be pretty surprised if he's a fantasy RB1, but that's what he was for a big chunk uh of September and October last year.

>> Okay, let's talk Bucky Irving on this. So, first we got word at OTAAS that opened today for the Buccaneers that Bucky Irving was not there. That is not a surprise. uh he has not been cleared from his offseason shoulder surgery, the injury that he suffered last year. Missed a handful of games along with an ankle. Did play through it a little bit towards the end of last year, but again we got the offseason shoulder surgery. So that was one report. And then we got a double down here from head coach Todd BS who you know is not very uh extravagant in front of the microphone, but he simply put that Bucky Irving is expected to return sometime quote during summer or fall. Mikey's never incognito, but he's coming along fine. He's working out in rough. Uh we expect him sometime back in the summer or the fall, and you know, we look forward to him when he gets back.

>> Your instant reaction is what?

>> Not good. He just makes me nervous because he's 5'10, 195 pounds. Last year was a really bad season for him. I thought as a rookie he looked like one of the best running backs in the NFL. I don't think that's an exaggeration. The numbers back that up. And then last year, uh, out of 66 qualifying running backs, he was 61, uh, 65th in yards, uh, rush yards over expected and then 64th in EPA per per carry. Like only Alvin Chimero was basically worse than he was. And then he had the injuries. It was a foot injury and then after a couple weeks of him not returning, Adam Shfter reports, it's actually the shoulder injury that's the bigger deal. And it really, really delayed it from week four all the way to week 13. And then when he came back from week 13, he was not getting the goal line carries like that went to Shawn Tucker. Uh they were still using Rashad White and they just upgraded Rashad White up to to Kenny Gainwell this off seasonason. Shawn Tucker is still the biggest guy in the backfield over there. And then he had to have a follow-up surgery. Uh and he's still not back yet. So this one's making me pretty nervous. I dropped him down to about 59th overall. I think that he's a flex play at this point. Uh, and I just think that that RB11 stretch as a rookie from week six all the way through. I think that's in the rear view. That's a Liam Cohen ago. That's shoulder injuries ago. Uh, and I just think the Bucks offense right now just did not project nearly as well as it did uh during that sense.

>> I mean, I went back and watched Bucky Irving and I still think he has the juice. Like, he still forces miss tackles. He still attacks the edges of defenders and they can be a hundred pounds heavier than him near the line of scrimmage and you know he still breaks that contact. Um I still think he's a really good player. Um I am just really nervous about how he's being not pigeonhold but viewed by play callers uh ever since the Liam Cohen stuff during his his rookie season. I mean, zero touches inside of the 5 yardd line last season and played just two snaps in that area of the field. His nine rushing touchdowns in the NFL, six of them have been six yards or less. And so, if he's not getting those carries six yards or less, then the touchdown market is just going to be extremely extremely negative for him. And on top of that, you would think some of his size is going to be out there in pure passing situations. That also hasn't been the case. Like that has previously gone to Rashad White and almost certainly that'll go to Kenny Gainwell. So even before missing OTAAS today because of surgery and Todd BS's comments, uh there are very easy factors to poke holes in Bucky Irving's just outlook from, you know, a being on the field standpoint. uh despite how much I really do like him as a runner and how much I believe in this offensive line as being a potential top five or top three unit in the league.

>> Yeah, offensive line's got to stay healthy. That was a problem last year. Baker's got to play better. That was a problem this last year. And then if you kind of just like take the average of that, uh the Bucks right now 17th in projected points this season when Bucky everyone was balling out and that Liam Con offense like what they were top five for for a lot of that season. So, um I I do think that the Kenny Gainwell stuff, I don't think it's a bit like I think they're extremely serious about this. They gave him $10 million guaranteed uh $7 million per season over the next two years. Like that's like real money uh in the running back market out there. So, I can see this being a three-way committee where Bucky Irving is like the foundation back, Sean Tucker's the goal lineback, and then Kenny Gainwell does not come off the field in any of the passing situations. your offense got to be really sweet and you got to be really good to kind of overcome a three-way committee right now. So, I think the sixth round somewhere around there, I feel comfortable with him. Uh, but like someone like Bashel Tutin to me, I think that his pathway to completely taking over his backfield is clearer to me at this point. Same thing with DeAndre Swift. We'll get to some of these guys in a minute here. So, I moved him down that full tier with the news that he might miss the next couple months here.

>> Yeah. during and after his rookie season, the the Bucks just absolutely loved Bucky Irving. Like Jason like talks about how he was the first one in, last one out, all that type of stuff. But then if you read between the lines during last season when he dealt with all these injuries, something was up behind the scenes. Like >> yes, >> something mentally was was uh not correct. And they've talked about that and that's unfortunate. Like it seems like he took it really hard that he couldn't be out there and playing football because that's, you know, what he does for a living. that's what he's being used to during his time at Oregon and obviously in the NFL. Uh hopefully it doesn't carry over in into this season. Um because I I think Bucky can still be sensational, but at the same time, we also have to remember that Zack Robinson was part of the group that also gave Tyler Algier a bunch of goal line touches ahead of uh Bejan Robinson. So, it's not out of the ordinary that that could go to Shawn Tucker or Kenny Gainwell on top of it.

>> Underdog projections right now, pick them lobby, 5.5 rushing touchdowns for Bucky Irving. Like fourth round, 5.5 rushing touchdowns. That's That's tough to sell.

>> Yeah. You mentioned that Bucky Irving uh is not the biggest boy in the backfield. Wasn't the biggest boy in the backfield last year? Came scatteroo. Wasn't that the next?

>> It certainly was. And that was the guy that you wanted to draft.

>> Uh yeah. By the way, we're about 10 followers short on Instagram of hitting our next milestone. We'll have an instant reaction video to all the Bucky Irving injury news on there. So, whenever something major breaks in the fancy landscape or you just want clips from this episode, go and follow us on that social handle and get us over the hump this year. Again, my thoughts. If you're stuck in the middle of round four, I want Lad Luther Burton or Coulson Loveland. And that's what I'm going to roll with. Hair loss. Many, many men suffer it from ages, I don't know, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45. And if you think you are starting to thin and looking in the mirror every single day and it's going back and back and back with that receding hairline, now's the time to do something about it. And I know a big hangup, a big stumbling block is, man, it's just going to take way, way, way too much time. You shouldn't have to go out of your way to feel like yourself. So HIMS brings expert care straight to you with 100% online access to personalized treatment plans that put your goals first. And there are no hidden fees. There are no surprise costs. Just real personalized care on your schedule. So for simple online access to personalized and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more, visit hems.com/underdog. That's hems.com/underdog for your free online visit. Hems.com/underdog. Individual results may vary based on topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Featured products include compounded drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety effectiveness or quality prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions and important safety information. Thank you for sponsoring the show.

Next, let's talk round five wide receivers. Interesting debate here. Two veterans of the game. The third pick of the fifth round that is Terry McLaren of the Washington Commanders. One pick after that is Devonte Adams. Uh one guy had a down 2025 hold out? We have seen how you know that impacts the rest of the season. Uh quarterbacks got banged up, he got banged up versus Devonte Adams who you know led all wide receivers in receiving touchdowns. So which two of these guys you want to draft more?

>> I view them very similarly. I do not have them far apart after doing all of my notes here. I am leaning towards Terry McLuren. He's had 23 games with Jaden Daniels over the last two seasons. He's the wide receiver 14 on wide receiver, 26 usage on a per game basis. That's in full PPR and half PPR is even better than that. He's a touchdown magnet. And since he's had a lot of that production, the Commanders have lost Stebo Samuel and Zack Z. They replaced him with Chiga Quano, Antonio Williams, who I kind of like, but he's a third round slot Z receiver. Uh, and then maybe Brandon Iayuk like on August 1st if he wants to show up and the 49ers want to release him from being a hostage. So, this looks like it should be a fantastic season for Terry McLuren to have a huge target share. And I think that Jaden Daniels should bounce back this this next season as well. They have both their tackle spots uh kind of figured out. I don't like that they lost their center, but in general, the Commanders are 16th in projected points. And I think that that's kind of taking the average of if Jaden Daniels misses times versus stays healthy because they were top 10 in points when he was a freaking rookie out there. So I'm looking at it 949 receiving yards in the pick and lobby. Dvonte Adams is just under 800. Uh I do think that touchdowns probably will go towards Dvonte Adams. This remains pretty close to me. Uh I don't mind either of them in the fifth round.

>> I'm way way way on the side of Terry McLaren here and it's like a no contest for me. I'm going to have Terry McLaren way ahead of where he's being drafted and ranked here among wide receivers. Again, you can kind of explain, I think, is 2025. The hold out, which is something we need to keep in mind with all of these wide receivers and quarterback relationships, as we've seen from, you know, the CD Lamb to the T. Higgins to now the Terry Mcccluren, the brand stuff, too. Again, the quarterbacks got banged up. But what stands out to me is when David Blau took over as the team's play caller, literally his first quote was, "How do we get Terry McLaren 10 targets per game?" And as you recite the depth chart, looking at it, it's it's quite easy to do. Yeah, there are >> major major questions. And so you and I talk about projected point totals and and you put it well that they're projected for the 16th. The commanders are at around 23.3. Compare that to the Rams who are number one at 26 and a half. At the same time, the Rams do have other players that can get them fantasy points. I mean, you look at the commanders, it's Jaden Daniels, it's Terry McLaren. The backfield's a question. The tight ends are a question and all the other wide receivers are a question. So, are you damn right that I'm listening to coach speak here in May and June? 100% I am. An offense that's going to take and pull some strings from the Ben Johnson uh schematics that we've seen. 100%. I think Terry McLaren, who we have seen graduate from kind of a big play downfield artist to also being a real asset inside the 10 and inside the 20 yard line. I just think this offense is going to run through Terry in the passing game.

>> Yeah, I I missed that quote. I'm going to I'm going to add that to my blurb here. That's that's a really good one. I I find this entire tier pretty flat. I think that goes like all the way up to like T. Higgins, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson. I think it's like all the way up there. Could Terry McLuren match the those receivers that I just named? I think absolutely uh is the case and I that's to me the reason why I want to be drafting Travis Achan up there and then getting my wide receivers kind of in this territory just because I feel like they're pretty flat in general. Like I I think I just mentioned that Garrett Wilson's like just over 1,000 yards. Terry McLuren's at freaking 950 here. So I think a pretty flat tier to kind of uh target right now.

>> Let's talk about Dvonte Adams a little bit more. Um don't get me wrong, 14 touchdowns is incredible. Nine of those were four yards or less. I watched them all researching for this. I swear all of them, maybe not one, but all of them were bailed running plays. And that can go here or there. Like, yeah, if you leave them in isolated coverage. We saw it with Aaron Rogers. We saw it with Matthew Stafford. Stafford did the same thing with Odell Beckham back in the day that, oh, you're going to give me that look. I'm going to trust the back shoulders, the jump balls, the quick slants, all that type of stuff. But at the same time, that wasn't the play that was called. And that can easily shift in the opposite direction.

>> He was the wide receiver 31 in yards per game. And hey, I can't get it out of my head that Shawn McVey was open and honest with everyone that hey, if we were a little bit more in on this AJ Brown trade that's coming up here that, hey, Devonte, we would have gotten rid of you. Like, we were looking to trade you if that was the case. If we could bring in AJ Brown. In the back of my mind, I'm wondering if Shawn McVey has kind of already seen a decline here from the 34year-old Devonte Adams in just a pure series to series impact like from a yards perspective moving the chains. Uh, and no doubt in my mind he can still be a huge asset when we get to a condensed field. But, uh, I I just think like the Rword, the regression word might hit Devonte Adams more than any other player in the league this season.

>> Yeah. 76 touchdowns per game inside the 20 yardd line on a 27% target share. Like that's like in his own category.

>> Inzone targets. That might be like the most ever we've ever seen.

>> Yeah, it's really it's really ridiculous. Uh and then outside of the red zone, 18% target share, 0% screen rate share on that, and then his average depth of target outside the red zone was at 15.6 yards down the field. That was actually third highest. So what's happened in this offense is Pukinu is going to get all the gimmies. They're going to run the ball plenty. When they get down to the one or two yard line, they might throw it up to him. But otherwise, Devonte Adams is more in a downfield boom bust role. And you kind of felt that last year, and that maybe that's why he was tearing his hamstring uh every other week. But I view him more boom bust on a week- toeek basis nowadays than I ever did before. All that said, there's still a pathway for this thing to really pay off. Like what happens if Puka misses time and then he's the one that stays healthy for a month of the season? We'll be ranking him as like the wide receiver six in a given week. The Rams are still projected for the most points like you said. So I view him as I think the most boom bust wide receiver three in fantasy this year is Devonte Adams. I went with Terry Mclloren feels a little bit safer. Uh I do think that Devonte Adams could reach a pretty crazy ceiling for this price tag, but I do think it is uh we should factor in the hamstring, Matthew Stafford's back, his age, Matthew Stafford's age, and then those Sean uh McVey kind of quotes and kind of bump him down a tier. Um he's super volatile.

>> That's wide receiver 25 and and 26 uh on on the board here. And yeah, we went through the depth chart of the Washington Commanders behind Puka and Devonte Adams. It's not like there's much in terms of wide receivers for the Rams here. We're talking Xavier Smith, Kennata Mumfield, obviously Jordan Whittington has filled in for both. On top of that, um instead of taking a wide receiver, you know, they drafted Ty Simpson, see you in 2028. uh and you know another tight end and Max Claire. So I even wonder if they're gonna lean even more into this 13 personnel work and uh if that's the case then you would at least assume that Pukanuku would be on the field versus Devonte Adams but who knows who knows

>> they get weird they get weird weird and by the way Puka has been very weird. That's a putting it mildly over the last calendar year. Um yeah I can see him finishing as a wide receiver 10 this year. I don't think it's the most likely scenario by by any means. I can see him as finishing as a wide receiver 42. I mean, this the range of outcomes here for Dvonte Adams is really wide.

>> Yeah. And look, we drafted a ton of Devonte Adams this past season. A major part of it was the touchdown projection that you and I were on considerably. So, I'm not going to say I'm totally changed my tune and I'm totally out on Dvonte Adams. Uh, I am just going to rank Terry McLaren higher than the wide receiver 25 of what he's being drafted >> at this current moment.

>> Okay, let's stay in round five. We've got two more uh scenarios here for you. The first pick of the fifth round is Dave Montgomery. The fifth pick is DeAndre Swift. Uh two former Lions running backs crossing in the night here. Uh I don't want to derail you, Hayden, but quick question. Is it in the realm of possibility that these guys should be drafted ahead of the other running back names that we just talked about in Cam Scaboo and Bucky Irving? I have Bucky Irving after I think Scataboo is kind of right in the range and I'll be moving these guys up and down based off the Scataboo injury. I think that DeAndre Swift seems extremely safe for this price tag. Last year he was half PPR's running back 15 on running back 18 usage. The Bears were ninth in points per game. This year Chicago's projected for number 10 scoring per game. I think there's a chance that that's even underelling it if Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson take another step. uh they had to rotate their center because of an unexpected uh retirement, but for the most part that offensive line looks really good again. And then I thought DeAndre Swift with Ben Johnson, he just looked like a little less chaotic. He was actually 10th in rushing success rate. I think a lot of that is because of the scheme and the offensive line and Ben Johnson, but Swift felt a little more consistent out there. So Kyle Manungai is going to be uh the secondary back behind him. But even with when uh Manungai was out there for 30 40% of the snaps, he was still an RB2. So I don't think that Manungai is just going to completely steal DeAndre Swift's job. It's a contract year. He's only 27 years old. I think that Swift's film has just gotten better every single year. And I'm not going to be fading this Chicago Bears offense this year. So to me, like he's kind of being priced like closer to his floor. I'm at 42nd overall. His ADP is like 53rd overall. After doing the research on this, I just wanted to keep drafting him.

>> I like both these running back picks. Uh and I will rank them ahead of Bucky Irving and Cam Scaboo. Uh when we unleash those. Yeah. Prior to last season, you know, you've been in the show with me for over five years at this point, I was not a DeAndre Swift guy. Every team that he was on, he was replaced and those backfields greatly improved. But then we got to week six of last year. uh he was the running back nine after that week five buy for the rest of the season. Running back nine in points per game. And if you looked at it and you watch like we did on stats versus film, it's because Ben Johnson and this offense looked at which runs were successful for which types of runners that they had and they really figured it out. I mean, they focused in on those. And that allowed DeAndre Swift to have the highest yards per touch since the 2022 season for him. and he produced a run of 10 or more yards on 13 and a half percent of his runs which ranked sixth in the league. That's from the great Richard Rebar. So look, DeAndre Swift, no one's ever like a swift guy anymore. Uh this is exactly where I want him in. It's the same exact backfield that we got last year and Manungai and DeAndre Swift. And sure, did Manungai get more playing time as a season went along? 100%. and DeAndre Swift didn't play over 60% of snaps outside of one game after that bye-week. At the same time, you can still play less than 60% of snaps and still finish as the running back nine in points per game if your offense is freaking awesome. And I still expect the Chicago Bears offense to be freaking awesome.

>> Yeah. I mean, the scheme is like you have Jonah Jackson at right guard, Darnell Wright at right tackle just run right behind them and like those guys are just pushing guys out of the way. So, he just feels very insulated here. I I'm still a fan of like Kyle Manungu. His price tag, too. if one of the other guys gets injured, the the other ones could be projected top 12 on a week- toeek basis. So, um I I thought this to me was clearly >> uh DeAndre Swift over David Montgomery. I think Montgomery is closer to fine. I have more concerns that Montgomery kind of just falls off of a cliff more so than DeAndre Swift. David Montgomery was like pretty efficient last year, but the offensive line difference between the Lions versus the Texans is is pretty drastic. And I think that Woody Marx is not going to completely go away, at least on passing situations. And I just don't think that the Texans offensive line and scheme is dialed into a point where I'm expecting like CJ Straoud to take uh his game to like the next level. So, he's only at five and a half rushing touchdowns in the pick and lobby right now. That feels pretty high for the 49th overall pick. So, I have him closer into like the back half of this round where I had DeAndre Swift at the the front half of the round before. Bears projected for the 10th most points per game this year, 24.5. Uh the Texans are down at 19, but hey, it goes back to the conversation that we had in the quarterback ranking show that they're actually favored in 13 games this season, but they're projected for the 19th most points. And that is a case where your defense is so good that you just don't have to score as much uh on offense because everyone else, >> you know,

The Commanders, for example, are projected for the 16th most points. So, three ahead, yet they're favored in just five games so far right now.

Um, >> on Dave Montgomery, this is your traditional three, four years ago like running back dead zone profile in that he's not really flashy anymore. He's been around the block quite a few times. Uh, yet we are just imparting this massive workload on him and an offense that we do like. Uh, and we know that if it's everything is a volume-based draft pick in round five, that can crumble for like a whole bunch of reasons.

For one, like if the Texans offensive line's investments don't pay off, then he's going to be a, you know, volatile touchdown-dependent pick. Now, if they do pay off, then he's going to be an extremely solid selection because you would expect him to again see the vast majority of the high-value touches in terms of touchdown-scoring opportunities. The Texans were 29th in red zone touchdown rate last season despite being 18th in red zone drives. And Woody Marks led that team with 44% of red zone carries and he scored just two overall scores.

So, if like >> this team is just better, the offensive line and how they've worked it gels, uh, you can see Dave Montgomery having eight rushing scores, I think, inside of the 15-yard line this year. >> I still think that would just make him the running back. 15 is the kind of like, to me, his upside case. I just think look at the names after him like DeAndre Swift, Quint Junkkins, uh, Jadarian Price, Bachel 2. Those are all young guys I think have a chance to to pop off or are in DeAndre Swift's case, just a better offense in general. And I was kind of looking at it like Chuba Hubards goes 20 picks after David Montgomery right now. Like functionally, what really is the difference between those guys? I just don't understand like why David Montgomery is up uh in the beginning part of this first round, especially like on Underdog where everybody wants the upside appeals. I just think that >> David Montgomery's like he's not gonna have a bunch of training camp buzz. I think that a lot of the guys kind of going after him like I would guess Toutin is going to go ahead of David Montgomery when we're drafting on Labor Day out here.

So, yeah, do you understand for me? >> He's being selected Montgomery as as the running back 22 and as you said for a platform that loves to draft for upside in year one and year two guys. Uh, Quinn Sean Judkins going as running back 24, Jadarian Price going as running back 25, uh, and then Bashel Tukin going as running back 26. So, it's a fascinating conversation. Mhm.

>> All right, let's close this thing out with a wide receiver duo in round seven. And that brings us to Parker Washington, who's the second pick of the seventh round, wide receiver 36. Then going down, the 10th pick of the seventh round is Jane Reed as wide receiver 39. Uh, the reason I wanted to package these two guys together, Hayden, is this is the battle of the three wide receiver sets in this same round. uh, and ones that you know have gone through, let's say, interesting uh career progressions so far. So, what do you have to say about either Jane Reed or Parker Washington?

>> I have Parker Washington for now. I do want to spend a lot more time watching all of his routes because it was such a fascinating season from him. So, we'll have to get back to Parker Washington more in-depth later on this summer. But from week seven on, he was PPR's wide receiver 18 on wide receiver 15 usage. He got there on a 21% target share. That was the wide receiver 21 over that span. That was a full tier above Brian Thomas, a full tier above Jacobe Meyers. He's also 24 years old. Comes from Penn State. And when I was watching him last season, he was routing up everybody. I mean, that was like inside the slot. It was on the outside on occasion as well. He made a couple acrobatic grabs on top of it. There was no part of his game where I was like, "Oh, just busted coverage. He's just like wide open." So, I I'm anticipating when I do go back in there and just like focus on him this off season, I will have even more positive things to say. And I think that Jaden Reed, unfortunately, he seems more typecast into his very specific role in a balanced offense. I can at least dream that Liam Cohen views Parker Washington differently or it's just a more pass-heavy offense in general. So, if both of these guys are good, I'm just going to go with Jacksonville over Green Bay.

>> It might be because of, you know, how he came into the NFL and also just not being very productive in his first two years, but Parker Washington is one of the most, I think, difficult players to get a hold of in terms of how does he fit in the wide receiver room? Because, as you said, if you look at week 16, you know, scoring 23 and a half fantasy points, 1715, week 18, 17.2, to when they get in the playoffs and it's 20 fantasy points.

>> Balled out. Yeah. Bled out.

>> I mean, the final four games, including the playoffs, were outstanding. And then you go and watch the tape, the first two catches versus the Cincinnati Bengals in the second game of the season like really encapsulate who he is. The first one, there's a motion of another wide receiver. It places Parker Washington in the slot. The cornerback on the out route undercuts this outside-breaking route. The ball is thrown high, still giving him a chance. and he dunks on the corner like at his size at 5'10", 204 pounds. He has the athleticism and the hands to play big. And then his second catch, full-speed motion into the slot at the snap, crossing route. His athleticism pops. You gain like 39 yards on it. And to me, you've seen the refinement grow each time he gets more and more and more opportunities. So again, if you want to dream, if you put the two names on the board or just watching wide receiver tape and everything's blacked out, I think you could make the case that Parker Washington like might be a better wide receiver than Jane Reed at this point. I think you could also like question, hey, if we look back on the 2026 season and Parker Washington is a better wide receiver than Brian Thomas Jr. is, that's also a possibility based on what Brian Thomas Jr. showed last year. At the same time, the other half of your brain says, "Okay, the wide receiver depth chart. Jacobe Myers isn't coming off the field." Then you have Brian Thomas Jr. who was excellent production during his rookie season and brings things to the table that Parker Washington doesn't. And then this Travis Hunter wide receiver stuff that you and I really like, still will not die in terms of the media narrative and how to fit him into the offense. And so if that's the case and there's a lot to go around now compared to the Packers wide receiver room which really feels like it's just a trio at this point finally after about five seasons of doing this.

>> Yeah, it is really crazy to look at it like the Parker Washington was the wide receiver two over his last uh four games of the season and then Jaden Reed was the wide receiver 43. So like on the like the most recent sample size, it's it's truly not even close. I think it's a good point though because we're gonna have a very consolidated uh receiving group in Green Bay now that Dantavian Wixs is gone. Romeo Dobs is gone and then Tucker Craft's also coming off of an injury. I'm guessing Tucker Craft's going to be out there week one, but you just never know. So that doesn't answer the two wide receiver set, one wide receiver set questions that we have with Jay and Reed. So it's like on a per route basis, balls out. You have 18 routes and you average three yards per route and like still like that's not really moving the needle. Um, so it's difficult. I I I want to like this kind of tier of Parker Washington, Jaden Reed, although Xavier Worthy in there, Josh Downs, like there's a lot of these wide receivers who are like traditionally undersized and they're just like not going to get it done. We like their tape. I do think because all the running backs are kind of gone by that point. I've been drafting a lot of this tier and just hoping for the best. Uh, and that's really burned us in the past. I will say we're down like two rounds versus where these guys typically have been drafted. and all the running backs that I used to really like in this range are now in the fourth and fifth round. So, I think this is kind of the year where it's like, all right, give me the efficient small wide receivers and just hope for the best.

>> Yeah, I'm hoping you have at least two running backs uh by the time the seventh round rolls because that's Tony Pard, Jaylen Warren, and RJ Harvey in in this area. I guess my convers my question to you is if we're talking about questions of finally graduating into two wide receiver sets, which by the way, Reeves always points out that through three NFL seasons, Jaden Reed has run a pass route on only eight plays in one or two wide receiver sets. Eight total plays in in three NFL seasons.

>> And by the way, the Packers were in 11 personnel 60% of the time last year, which was like 18th, 16th overall. Uh, and you know, they might run more 12 personnel if it's Tucker Craft. Uh, and, uh, the other tight end whose name >> Big Luke. >> Yes. Grave. There you go. Back to my question. I understand that Jordan Love is the Packers quarterback and Daniel Jones hopefully is the Colts quarterback. But if you want to take a risk of which of these wide receivers graduates into two wide receiver sets, why not just take Josh DS two rounds after where Jane Reed is going as a third pick in the ninth round versus the 10th pick in the seventh round.

>> Yep. I see the same way. I'll say the same thing with Xavier Worthy and I'll even make the case Matthew Golden. Like Matthew Golden I think has a better chance of being in two wide receiver sets than Jaden Reed. You get a what 30 pick discount on that too. So I don't have anything like overly negative with Jaden Reed aside from like the snaps. I kind of have him ranked a little bit after this range, but nothing too crazy. Uh I just think that this tier of wide receivers goes down like four rounds and I just want to be kind of price sensitive with them.

>> Couple final stats here. Uh when Parker Washington, Meyers, and BTJ were on the field, Parker Washington team high 31% target share, 3.17 yards per route run. So again, when they're at 11 personnel, Parker Washington is the best wide receiver on the field, but he also might have this two wide receivers at 12 personnel stuff, which again, we know Britain Strange and then drafting Bor Kercher in the second round. Um, of his 98 targets last year, just 12 were in 12 personnel last season for for the Jets.

>> That's wild that he had over 30% target rate. Uh, there was three wide receivers last year with three wide receivers on the field that they had over 30%. It was Jackson Smith and Jigba, Puka, Nakua, Monro St. Brown, and then with those two other guys, Parker Washington would be the fourth. Insane, insane stuff. Now, there's also like insane numbers for Jaden Reed. If you want to go back and just look over what he's done over his first few seasons uh in in the NFL, like over 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns in their first few seasons, he's up there with some of the best names ever among wide rece. I do think that's goes to Laflur being able to script some really cool manufactur plays.

>> Um and I kind of feel like we've lost a little bit of that juice from Jaden Reed as we saw during his first couple years in >> Yep. Lots of injuries too to keep track of. But yeah, I I don't mind taking like a Packers Flyer kind of in this range. I just think is it Tucker Craft, Jaden Reed, or Matthew Golden at cost? And I'm kind of leaning towards the the other two over read. That's going to do it. Hopefully you enjoyed this episode. Uh hopefully you want us to do more. Let us know in the chat down below in the comments down below if you did. Uh and some other let's say draft conundrums that you have this or that crossroads uh selections and uh we'll be sure to hit on them uh in a couple weeks.

Before we get out of here, did I want to bring this up from Hope, who works over on the draft game side of Underdog. She has a heavy hand in every single win puppy that comes out, every single best file mania. Uh Hope's been at Underdog for multiple years. Uh cannot say enough good things uh about her in terms of meeting up when we get to any of these draft games off sites and just underdog off sites in general. So, she's going through some >> medical things. Uh, I'll link this down in the description below. So, at the very least, if you could um retweet this post and just help spread the word, uh, that would be awesome. That would be awesome.

>> Yep. Hope is so great for the community. And then on top of that, she's just like a wonderful person. Like so nice. Like just loves to to chat ball and uh just somebody like whenever I'm on these retreats underdog, like I go out of my way to go chat up with with Hope. She's the best.

>> All right, that does it. Shout out to Mosho and Weaves behind the scenes. Shout out to all of you for hitting subscribe. It's totally free to all of you. We've got two more episodes this week, so lock in, watch them. We'll talk to you'all soon.