Momentum Strategies & Fighting FOMO

Hey everyone, it's charting man Dame with the chart guys. All-time highs continue in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Lots of volatility in a bunch of subsectors like drones, space names, memory, quantum, psychedelics. We're going to look at some of everything, even the big boy old school names, IBM, Dell. Uh we are in meltup, euphoria, anomaly mode, and we'll see how the market looks.

Learn how to trade stocks, crypto, and hype sectors with a global chat room led by professional traders as well as daily live streams at chartguys.com. Just a heads up for those that missed it, I announced in a webinar this past week that I'm going to be stepping back at the end of November in six months. So, check out that webinar for more information on that and really appreciate all the messages and people reaching out and kind words in response to that.

But we still got six months to kill it in a meltup market which is favoring momentum continuation strategies. And the good news is the core of the chart guys and my entire trading strategy that developed mostly in 2017 crypto is pretty much all momentum strategies and that is back burners and EMA riders. And certainly Joey talks about those a lot as well, most specifically the EMA rider as core parts of our trading strategy. And so, uh, it's important to note a couple of things.

Number one, still not looking bearish in this market. It is a meltup anomaly market. We can go as high as our imagination can imagine, and I'm waiting for price and bears to tell me something is shifting. We were looking at the possibility of weekly consolidation a week plus ago and the answer was no. Bulls still got it. And so I grabbed some hedge positions for the potential of weekly consolidation and that then I stop out from them. Uh some of them break even, some of them small losses, but if I'm stopping out of my hedges, that means my portfolio is continuing to go up. And so that's a good thing. I would rather stop out of my hedges because if we pull back, my hedges are going to offset some of the pullback in my account, but not all of it most of the time. And so, uh, that's something to be aware of.

So, my mindset now is we talked about last week, the check mark for the bears is confirm a daily downtrend. If you do not confirm the first daily downtrend since we bottomed, then you're not going to follow through in weekly consolidation. And so, we didn't. And now we have an EMA writer. And again, just Google chart guys EMA writer strategy. There's a whole webinar about it. And of course, we've got all the back burner content and indicators uh because again, this is how I've made my trading career in a bull market ever since I started trading uh 2010. So my mindset now is I'm not going to look for any hedges as long as daily EMA 12 is support. And when we lose daily EMA 12 support for the first time on this run, then I will look to protect.

Again, the key about this meltup euphoria market is understanding that you're going to miss a lot of opportunities and you're it is your job to not let FOMO overtake your trading and cause you to do things that are going to negatively impact you. and myself there's there's no difference. I made this post on FSLR two weekends ago. Tan Bulls bought the dip on Friday daily uptrend guide keeping an eye to see if FSLR is going to act as a lagard. It did in a very big way. I didn't look at FSLR again over the next week after that post. I missed that move. I didn't make $1 off of S FSLR and being very correct about the bull flag and the rotation in terms of getting some relative strength versus tan over that period. That said, you know, I can focus and count all the imaginary money I could have made if I did something or I can focus on okay, well, I exceeded my goals over the last two weeks by trading other things. Uh because again there are endless shiny flashing objects in this market and it is your job to keep a level head and not just go running around to all I mean we had monster moves this past week in drone names and so I've traded them a little bit but I also stopped focusing on drone names because they were dead money for five months or however long it was just in terms of slow bleed action and no bull follow-through while there was plenty of opportunity elsewhere.

So my point is this is normal and you are going to feel this way in this bull market. Uh and so again it's it's important to accept it and to be gentle with yourself and to look on the bright side to not lead you into a negative mental spiral that leads to chasing or eliminating your rules or overtrading or all these other ways that we can sabotage our own trading. The goal is to meet or exceed your goals. You are competing against yourself. Yes, catching big bull moves helps you do that. But there are many different ways you can do it. And in this market environment, I would suggest you are either fully focused on one or two sectors and you know four or five names in that sector focus. That's how I started my career with cannabis stocks and still focused on that sector and uh that focus and that knowledge of the sector still helps me make money in it or you are looking at a wider range of sectors subsectors quantum space whatever but just picking one or two names so one you know I'm watching space rkb and as I'm watching quantumq and qbts I'm watching rare earth, USA and MP. Uh that's those are the two ways I would suggest approaching it so you're not getting overwhelmed and just running around.

And the most important thing is that you're sticking, you know, a professional trader sits at the computer and they establish a trade game plan for the day and if it sets up and it comes to them exactly as they want it, an A+ setup, they take the trade and that's how they go about their business. They're not sitting at the computer and just rushing around to to find the thing that's up the most on the day to then start trading that. Uh that's the scrambled approach versus the regimented, disciplined, organized approach. So again, it's uh just want to reiterate the FOMO is going to be a normal feeling. You're going to miss a lot of opportunities because it is not possible to capitalize on all of them. And even if you trade really well, you are going to be able to find something where you can look at it and say, "If I traded this, I would have made more money every single day." That's going to be the case. So you just have to accept it and move on.

Okay. So S&P 500 and NASDAQ daily EMA 12 riders, bulls still in absolute complete control. Nothing is shifting at this point. It is very important for me that we see a broadening of breadth in the market where we see rotation and we're getting little glimpses of it but uh I want the next leg up in this market to be marked by things that are not semiconductors and memory. It doesn't mean that they have to pull back significantly. It just means that I need to see these other places start to wake up and get bull follow through. And it's not just the little subsectors, it's the the big important sectors in the market. And the other good thing about a bull market is you can be wrong and make money. So I was wrong to focus on the financial sector. You know, I forget when it started, but maybe two weeks ago or three weeks ago. My thesis was I think the financial sector is going to be the next to get a solid leg up, confirm a weekly uptrend and uh help the market broaden its breadth and continue up and I was wrong. Uh but I've still made money on the financial sector and I've made money on memory and I've made money on other things while I was wrong. Why? Because number one, I waited I was I was planning on going aggressive with size, but I waited for the bull confirmation to go aggressive with size and it never came. So I never went aggressive with size. I did starter positions. I did, you know, some maneuvering, day trading, sell half, try and let it ride. Um, but I also was trading the other things as well. I didn't get ingrained in my thesis. I didn't uh say it's got to be this or nothing else. I was very open and agile uh to be able to moving around and so you know I missed the MU and memory dip by here. I wanted 4hour oversold conditions and we got somewhat close but we got down to maybe 4hour RSI at 38 or something along those lines. Uh and then that was it. And so I didn't reload a swing position, but I traded it on the way back up. You know, I bought it at some point on Tuesday. I sold pre-market 960s on Wednesday. I bought the five minute oversold dip and repositioned during that drop. And uh so the point is it's okay to be wrong, just don't stay wrong. That's I mean, you've heard that before. That's pretty much what it boiled down to.

So, we're now going to look at a lot of little subsectors because there's a lot of opportunity in the market. But again, it is our job to focus in. That's part of what weekend homework is. That's part of what these videos are. It's not okay, I need to focus on space, quantum, rare earth, and all these things. It's okay, which of these things do I want to focus on? Uh, and so let's go.

So, SMH, the bulls are still in complete control. Again, we dip down, brief consolidation, no confirmed daily downtrend, full recovery, and now we're chopping around a little bit. You know, we could say that over the last 3 days, semiconductors haven't done much. We've traded fairly sideways. Uh, and we're going to look for if we pull back, I personally will consider still anything above 52787 as a daily higher low and a result of this con consolidation. And so again, when that happens, if SMH breaks 58493, the most important thing for me is what are the other major sectors doing? Are they going up to offset it or are they not? Because most often there's the inverse correlation with the financial sector and the semiconductors on a morning by morning basis. That's pretty much how we start every first 45 minutes of trading and then it shifts from there. But as one note, I've been able to get really good at instantly knowing when there's an ALGO bot news reaction just by watching SMH and XLV. They are inverse so often that when things instantly start to go up together for a one minute candle, I know that's the bots automatically reacting most likely to Middle East headline. And that happened a couple of times this week and it's very short-lived but that initial reaction tells you uh what what is happening without even needing to see the headline and then you know you can look for it after the fact but uh just something to note with how those sectors are trading and so semis again looking at the NASDAQ first semis mag 7 and software is how we've been breaking it down semis have still been doing their thing memory is still doing their thing uh you know that's a a perfectly fine close on MU. Bulls are eyeing a thousand keeps getting, you know, MU and SNDK keep getting upgrades from everybody. Uh SNDK is in a daily stairstep from this low. We double bottomed and we've now been in a daily stairstep for the last bunch of days, three, six, eight days. And so when we lose it, what's the response to hourly oversold conditions? the the a big piece of information for me will be when hourly oversold does not mark a daily high or low, weekly consolidation probabilities significantly increase. And that did happen during that period of consolidation. Uh there was just no bare follow-through. So SNDK had a couple of plays off of the low of the previous day on this run up. Look at how many times we got real close to that low of the previous day and held it into continuation. And so again, the strategies for me are back burners, ideally aligning with an EMA rider.

For example, let's go. Uh we had drone names finally wake up. Um monster move to all-time highs. Huge run and gap ups. We're talking 200 or 100 plus percent in just a few days. So here is an example of you know okay I miss the move because I'm not watching the sector I miss 130% of that move but there is still opportunity so on Friday 4hour EMA 12 coming into play as five and 15 minute are oversold we tested the low of the previous day Thursday we broke it and triggered stops and that was the low of the And I just wanted to highlight again being I mean I was right but uh my entry left a lot of money on the table. So I took this trade and I just want to give you an insight into how funny my brain is. But here's my entry 2457. The low of the day is 2428. That felt late to me, which in hindsight is comical because we went up 27% or whatever from there. It felt late to me because we flushed that uh those stops and I was I was literally less than one minute from the bottom. But I I don't know why it felt late to me. Maybe because my order wasn't I I don't know what it was. But because it felt late to me, I exited the majority of my position on this initial bounce and then I was out all of it by 27 and then I missed another 12% of upside. So the takeaway for me is yes backers oversold conditions into EMA riders. So 4hour EMA 12 was the reason and again most likely scenario a 4 hour higher low is the most likely result of that pullback. Um so the key takeaway for me is uh maybe leave runners a little bit longer and I did an okay job of that on IBM.

IBM. So the setup here on IBM which again it's just been a monster runner uh getting attention in the quantum space trying to establish itself now is the most legitimate quantum player and uh you know we got the headline I guess it was last week at this point about the administration giving funding to these quantum companies but again same thing back burner strategy an EMA writer IBM five keeping an eye for five minute oversold and hourly EMA 12 watching ing for the higher low. So there's where the back burner triggered right at the low of the day. I grab some right above 260. I sell partial. I put my stop under 260. I never stop out. That fivem minute oversold marks the hourly higher low. And then we go another at this point another 15% plus higher into the next day. And so I sell some. I now have a swing position in IBM because I let the runner go. And you know, my break even at this point is probably maybe 255 or something along those lines. And so I can now just let this go. And you know, IBM, are we heading to all-time highs? Sure looks like it's a possibility. There's a lot of resistance here, but again, in this market environment, anything's possible. So again, take away back burners, EMA riders, go watch the content for in-depth explainers, and leave a runner. and UMAC. That was my mistake on Friday. But again, still, you know, locked in whatever day maker or or whatever it ended up being just could have been more. So, make a slight adjustment. Leave runners with a longer term mindset now. But man, these big old companies, IBM, look at the weeks that they had.

So, IBM monster continuation. IONQ not too shabby either. I still got a runner in this one from my buy into 29s. And again, that buy was just I think the market's melting up. I'm going I'm looking for some risk on names. And ONQ was one of the ones that I chose. Uh and all-time highs. There's very little resistance now to all-time highs. So, good sign for the quantum sector. IBM, big boy leading the way. Of course, INTC, as we know, has been on fire. But now we got a nice constricting range. I like constricting ranges on names that I don't own because as Joey always talks about, you need a playbook for trending and you need a playbook for balancing. And so now we've entered balancing and I'm hoping, you know, if I want to be aggressive, I can look for a higher low compared to 10240 and then hope this equilibrium breaks bull. I can wait for the tightening range to break and then act on that. But there's been a lot of those Dell there's balance. One of the things Jesse Livermore Livermore would do Liverpool Livermore uh he would average up and add during balance because when you are trending the short-term periods of balance most often lead to continuation. So there's Dell sideways into another monster move up. Insane earnings reaction. Just an absolute beast. Nice job getting over 15. Was watching 15 minute EMA 12 rider resistance and saying when we get over that that's going to be the hourly higher low being set. Bull break of 4112. Nice move into the end of the day. So just my style. I didn't trade this but if I'm in at 412 then that means I look to sell half at 422 and put my stop under 400. Tiny risk. and we'll see if we can get, you know, I I didn't, again, didn't take that trade. Wouldn't be surprised if we just get hourly balance into the start of next week. But balance is a good thing when you're in a trending strong market. And so, let's see if INTC gives us daily tightening range. So you got those mon those old school big boy names waking up and ripping.

And again, Trump giving signals. Love it or hate it, think it's right or wrong, it's your personal opinion, you can make money from it. Of course, he he did it with PLTR. We know we're about to talk software. It's a long video. About to talk software, but finally woke up. When did he talk about PLTR? Back here. literally the low. Uh he's talked about Dell again. You can think it's wrong. You can think tres pre presidents shouldn't be trading. You can hate the guy. You can make money. All of those things can be true. And it's up to you to be able to move beyond those emotional, you know, make money from it and then donate to whoever whatever candidate you like that's running against who you don't like. Utilize this capital extraction to do what you want and to try and make the changes you want to see. I do that in my local community where I think, you know, $10,000 has a lot more impact than donating to a president. But, uh, anyways, so other major S.

Okay. No, software. So, again, we're still on the NASDAQ. We've got we still have to look at mags. So, semis, mags, software, mags is still fine. Testing the all-time high. Quick little bull flag trying to shape up. You still got names like Google. We're going to look for a Google weekly higher low. Daily downtrend guide. I'm going to be watching for the possibility of a falling wedge. If we bounce on Monday, then I'll be watching for the possibility of a 4hour falling wedge. I'm not in a rush. If I'm looking for a weekly higher low is the most likely scenario, I want to find a spot where I can say that's the weekly higher low or I'm wrong. And with where we closed on Friday, certainly can't do that. So, it's okay to be patient. It's okay to not nail the bottom, but I am going to be watching for a Google higher low. We got Amazon weekly higher low set. Now, can we get a new all-time high there? We got Apple's been grinding into all-time highs as a lead bull. Meta got uh headline help. We're watching this inverse head and shoulders. The right shoulder bled all the way back to support, but then the headline helped. Look at this back test. This is a back test and hold of resistance as support. Did we hit hourly oversold? No. But if bulls can maintain 620 as support, we're going to keep looking towards this gap fill. And that gap fill is up at 663. So this is an important back test, but that needs to continue holding. And that's Lamont style. You know, if you missed the breakout, okay, that's fine. Buy the back test. What else? Okay, I'm done talking about MAGs.

IGV monster move. I was keeping an eye out again in a in a bull market. I don't have high conviction in bare patterns, but I was watching this rising wedge just saying, "Okay, if we're going to shift, it'll be this rising wedge." Well, it broke bull, and it broke bull by a lot. So, it wasn't shorting software. Um but was just keeping an eye on that and software ran more after hours. It's clear that the bottoms in the fear bottoms in you know the sector is not completely decimated from AI at this point and that's where a significant amount of rotation has been seen. All right you know out some soft or some semis back into software already 62% retracement. We've got the pullback was 37% and look at this bounce 37%. This is why I always favor bulls as my trading strategy because it is so much easier to make money as a bull of course in a bullish market. But even just looking at you nail that top and that bottom and you make the same amount as someone nailing that bottom and that top and we're nowhere near back to where we were. Generally, the bull gains when bounces are significant happen faster than the bare gate. Well, nah, I can't make that general statement. Uh, but oftentimes, so monster bounce, great job. Remember, we were looking way back when at this long-term very important support zone and we talked about the barebrough and then we talked about the health care sector, the bare break, no follow through, and we referenced, remember, software just did it. Let's see if healthcare now does it. and they did. So software or healthcare has been getting some rotation. Again, nothing monstrous here. We will eventually need to confirm a weekly trend change, perhaps a inverse head and shoulders, but the monthly higher low is set. And if this is going to be a blowoff market, and I'll do a whole dedicated live stream when I think we're starting to get to the time where we need to talk about bigger picture strategies and exits and stuff for that to be confident. I need XLV and XLF to be up at all-time highs as well. Uh, and so you we're not a huge amount away. We need another 7% to get there on XLV. As I mentioned, XLF, uh, we've got just just sideways, which is why I was able to make some money in financials, just not as much as I would have made elsewhere. So, still in balance and for the financial sector bulls to prove something. We've got to confirm the weekly uptrend and get over 5319. And if we can, then we're going to be looking at all-time highs. But still very rangebound for the last five weeks. GS has been the leader a leader daily higher low strong close all-time highs $1,000 now trying to turn into support MS same chart is a leader as well so there are some individual financial sectors doing names these are the names that have exposure to semiconductors and and to IPOs and things like that uh so not your legacy banks like BAC which is more rangebound balance so The financial sector still sideways.

Other sectors IYT weekly bull flag confirmed. Just a really nice inside bar bull break grinding EMA 12 all-time highs. Now we are back testing. We need to hold previous resistance as support trying to do that. If we're going to see continuation, bulls want to see XLB, weekly equilibrium, weekly balance. This balance needs to break bull and head back to all-time highs. Nice tightening sideways range. XLI industrials nice save of weekly EMA 12. It kind of looks like transportation did a couple weeks ago. Can industrials confirm this cup and handle looking pattern back to all-time highs. These are all the sectors. Again, not sexy. Twitter's not talking about industrials or chemicals for the most part. But if the market is going to increase its breadth and we're going to get more upside this summer and head towards that blowoff top, I want to see a bunch of these sectors and all-time highs as well. And so keeping an eye on them and how they're trading and even if I'm not actively trading them, you know, I'll grab some IYT uh and but it's not a meaningful sizable position and I'm not even caring about any of the individual names. It's just keeping an eye on the because again attention span. I can't look at the top three names in industrials while looking at all these other things. I can look at IYT. I can check in on IYT once a day. Uh I just know not to stretch myself too thin.

All right. Now we're going to go. So those are all the other sectors. Again, healthcare and the financials in terms of size. the more important ones, but watching to see if all these other ones can participate as well. I'm watching LIT to be a potential weekly cup and handle up at all-time highs. I'm watching I mean we talked about me missing the solar sector but the solar sector is significantly here was balance uptrend breakout balance for two months continuation sideways balance is a good thing when you're digesting a significant bull move that has just taken place all right so quantum we know IBM's a leader all-time highs you know we're not going to expect to just shoot straight up to them. We're going to look for a daily higher low next consolidation. We're going to look, we got a little hourly support at 287. We got an hourly EMA 12 rider. IONQ, as I mentioned, looks great. I've been very impressed with the resiliency in this name. 4hour EMA 12 rider. When we lose that, we'll look for hourly oversold to try and mark a daily higher low. Smaller names, not as strong. RGTI balance. So 4hour equilibrium QBTS balance. So we've got trending IBM and OQ and balancing QBTSRTI in the same sector. Those both require different trading strategies, different game plans, different amounts of patience. I would be much more open to buying an hourly higher low in our trending names than I would in a balancing name.

Space names rocket blew up putting in a temporary top but trade I was pointing out on Friday didn't take it but an hourly inverse head and shoulders for a daily higher low if it's going to be a daily bull flag and so the play was watch for a right shoulder watch for an hourly higher low I didn't want to take that trade into a Friday afternoon I was busy doing stuff uh but it took place and so we'll see Can that be another bull flag just like it was back here? Brief balance on the 4our tighten up continuation. So daily EMA 12 rider on RKB as again that's that's the risk, right? So ideally that's why we don't want to be buying and swing trading up here. We need to have some profit cushion on things that are running really hard. You got to look and and say to yourself, "Okay, this name has gone up 66 70% since last daily consolidation. Do I want to enter a swing trade up here?" No. You got to wait for daily consolidation for a new swing trade when something's run that much. Uh, and you got to just be okay with waving goodbye. You know, I missed the move. I missed tons of moves. You have to be able to say, I missed it. This is not my ideal setup. I can't establish a swing position here. I'll wait for hourly oversold to try and mark a daily higher low. And we got it in some extremes. Let's see if this hourly equilibrium can break bull on Monday to set a daily higher low. And again, it's just a back test. Previous resistance trying to act as support. So far so good. Uh so again, just volatility in space names. What's the one SPCE benefiting from the blow up? I suppose monster volume, monster move. Another thing you'll see in a strong bull market is the bell will ring. You'll dip very quickly to five minute oversold and then you get that marking the low of the day. This one hit five minute oversold in pre-market. But look at IGV. IGV the bell rings. We dip down to fivem minute oversold and then we rip all day. So that's something to watch for. Uh again, if if you're going to see continuation, you want five minute oversold. You want to mark the the hourly higher lows. You want day hourly oversold to mark the daily higher lows. And so those are are potential strategies to watch for on opens. And then, you know, you sell partial. My strategy being more conservative is I sell partial fairly quick and I just stick my stop under the low of the day. And if that holds, I got a runner. And if it doesn't, I stop out without too much harm. What were we looking at? SPCE. So yes, we hit oversold five minutes pre-market, but bell rings dip down to fiveminute oversold. That's the low of the day. Some fivem minute equilibrium balance into continuation. Equilibrium balance into continuation. Equilibrium balance into the end of the day. So space going to stay volatile. Quantum going to stay volatile.

What else? We got drones. We talked about um some other ones. Jobby less impressive, but following along in some gap fill. And again, this is why, you know, I was interested in Jobby at one point. I traded it somewhere back here to start the year. I think I was looking for the daily higher low here for continuation. Stop out. I'm not interested anymore. And so I can focus and say, "Ah, I missed this last week and I missed these gains." But no, I missed this downside by focusing and making money elsewhere. That's the bright side. I can focus on the last week and all the imaginary money I could have made or I can focus on. I mean, I made the right decision for months.

So, I'm looking at rare earth names. I like US. I added entered a swing for the potential of a cup and handle. And so the thesis was I'm playing for the potential of a 4hour cup and handle. And as soon as we broke the low of the inside bar with no follow-through, I make my entry. I think my initial entry was 2650s. And now I've day traded it a couple times to get my break even down to 26. So now I've got a stop under, let's just say 2569. It will be a small insignificant red loss if I stop out, but the thesis is still alive. Can this 4hour cup and handle break bull to have us looking up into the low30s for some continuation? Uh the the dip buying in rare earth was impressive this past week. MP larger leader bull got to confirm the daily uptrend from here if I'm going to have confidence in US CCJ uranium related weekly equilibrium balance weekly higher lows set off support. Now we're going to look for tightening to continue. So again I can position in balance by playing off support and anticipating equilibriums or I can wait for it to break. You know, maybe uranium and CCJ stays rangebound for another six weeks. That's possible. But it's important to to differentiate. And again, all bulls balance, equilibrium, tighten up, continuation. So I want to see CCJ follow through from the weekly higher low. I want to see MP confirm a daily uptrend and that will give me confidence that my US position can break out. Um my has been another one, a weaker bounce. CRML weaker bounce. So I'm focusing on the relative strength.

Nice segue. Relative strength. So I laid out a thesis psychedelics that CMPS was going to see rotation five weeks ago. I laid this out uh because its peers had already had their turns. ATAI led and ran 600%. DFTX has led the last six months and ran whatever 100%. And I'm proud of myself on this trade because I averaged up 200% higher than my initial buy. So my initial buy was down here in the $3, maybe even the upper twos. It was upper twos and the thesis again was smaller position size. This is either going to zero or it's going hundreds of percent. And fortunately it went hundreds of percent. So I then added balance. So why? Because at that point in time 811 was the low. We then bounced to a lower high. And then on April 28th right here I say okay we're heading towards support. I will be interested in a CMPS ad attempt if we see lower eights tomorrow. We did. We dropped down $8.25. I added CMPS. I put my stop under $8. If we're going to remain in balance, I will remain in this position. We tighten up into continuation. That position is now plus 50%. And I said I will exit it when we lose daily EMA 12. So, I'm utilizing it was also probably hourly oversold into that support, but I'm utilizing the EMA rider to dictate when I exit my ad. And it's closing really strong and it's breaking out. It's a multi-year highs. 1275 was an important hurdle to clear. And now we have I call this things can get spicy over the 11s and twelves. But again, we just ran. I was I also self-reflection. I was taking victory laps on Friday. That's my ego coming in and and I was posting about I was right about this. Uh and that also reminds me, hey, we've seen 160% move since last weekly consolidation and you're taking a victory lap. Weekly consolidation is probably not that far away. So that's my reminder. My self-reflection is my reminder to reel me back in a little bit because I know that that can often that emotional euphoria can often mark a top. But we closed strong daily MA12 rider. Other names not too shabby, but again this is at a DFTX. DFTX is seeing just fine balance after the big breakout weekly EMA 12 rider. So, I've been loving the psychedelic names. Just smaller position size, a lot of high-risisk, highreward, but they've been trading great this year. And uh cannabis trying to wake up again. We've got to confirm MSOS must break 559. We've been talking about how we had this great move, no follow through, slow bleed, give it back. Great move, no follow through, slow bleed, give it back. Cannabis is known for summer slow bleeds. Great move. Confirm the trend change. Tell us this time is different. Get over 559. That's very important. GLASF is a small cap name I've been in because it's approaching all-time highs. Crown's another name I've still got a runner position in because it's holding monthly EMA 12 and trying to put in a long-term bottom. TCNNF still got a bit of a position but rejecting from resistance. Anyways, still watching these names. The market backdrop is great. Need a little cannabis sector needs headline catalyst help more than psychedelics. But uh all of the things that I'm covering in this video were themes in my quarterly long-term patterns video to start 2026. Go watch the one from end of December 2025. And I was talking about rare earth. I was talking about psychedelics and cannabis. I was talking about drones a bit in there. Robots, robotics, sv trying to shift things. Falling wedge watch bots ETF balance. Nothing wrong with this balance after a breakout. Back test and hold. Resistance has support. Are we gearing up for another leg up? But anyways, a lot of those themes coming back to life a bit. They started the year extremely strong. Quantum was one of them. Um then they faded a bit Q2 Q end of Q1 started Q2 and now they're trying to reignite a bit. Uh but I view these names as a a riskon macro group. They've got their subsectors, but I kind of view them as a a whole thing to a certain degree.

All right. I think I'm Oh, no. Commodities, commodities, gold. I'm watching this falling wedge. Why? Because my thesis is a two-week higher low is the most likely scenario. So, that was my thesis. And I say, okay, if that's going to happen, what would it look like? And then I forget when I drew this a few days ago, but it would be a bare break with no follow-through. So that's alive as a possibility, but you know, this isn't an ideal pattern drawing. I'm just trying to show what my brain sees. And so I'm watching how does this break? If this can break bull, that's a two-week higher low. And guess what? This is balance after a monster move for gold. Monster move. balance continuation, a wider range of balance, but it is still balance. Can we tighten up on the two-week? Silver doing a better job holding support. Daily support base held. Can bulls shape up an inverse head and shoulders to try and maintain that support. Miners relative strength to the metals. How can we say that at just a glance? Well, someone in the chart guys pointed it out and it was a good eye. That's how I know. But uh breaking the high of Tuesday on GDX is gold breaking the high of Tuesday. No. Well, double top. Yes, but fraction of a percent versus convincing percentage- wise also. And it also has to do with market hours and all that, but a double bottom at support where gold broke support by a percent or two. Two. So some slight relative strength. Can the miners balance maintain support and keep the balance going? You leave balance when you either break out and continue or you confirm the downtrend and then bears start to prove things. That's when it's more top topping action than balance action and balance can form tops distribution WOFF oil again not reacting to negative. The headline reactions tell us everything we need to know. I started talking about a meltup in an anomaly market. And the big thing for me was when hourly oversold marked this daily higher low on bad news. Then I was bull bulls. That's all the information I needed. And it was a critical piece of that was the market completely ignored that bearish headline to do the technical thing that tells me bulls are in full control. If it happened on good news, it's less convincing than if it happens on bad news. If it happens on bad news, it's wait a second, that's not common. And so oil, as anybody that's been trying to trade fundamentally and is extremely frustrated and we're just getting the balance that we've anticipated, we've been talking about this anticipated equilibrium for two months and it's just a beautiful one. And so, can the bulls maintain 84 to stay within balance for another week? Bulls got to prove it. Coming out of the gate this week, daily stairstep eight days in a row has to break bull energy. We had the bull break, but nope, oil's not ready. And so, this was a tightening range bull break fake out to a certain degree because the commodity didn't come along. But still, same thing. Campbell defend weekly support and remain within a fairly sideways range. That's what we're watching. Burdens on bulls. As we know, the broader market has long ago disconnected from the inverse relationship with oil just in terms of being tick for tick. Uh there's nothing saying that oil and markets can't go up together or down together. Yes, recently they've been inverse more often than not, but there are no rules. Nothing says anything has to be a certain way. And there are plenty of days where that correlation just isn't a thing. It doesn't matter. So what was that? Thursday the 14th. So yeah, it lines a bit. We got our period of consolidation when oil got its decent leg up here. But again, you know, end of April, oil is all bulls. and we kept heading higher here. So, worth keeping an eye on, but not the importance that it was a month ago, six weeks ago, whatever.

All right. There's a lot to digest in this video. Balance verse trending momentum strategies back burners EMA riders some fivem minutee back burners to start mornings leaving runners with a longer leash in euphoria trending markets you're going to miss things you're going to feel FOMO you have to recognize it when you feel it because it's completely normal to feel it volatility is going to continue in quantum in these major names IBM INT DC, Dell in space, in memory. They've got they're going to have daily opportunity in the ranges and the liquidity and the volume they provide. Daily EMA 12 rider for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Do good things. Have a great weekend. tadpoles are turning into a frog army.