Transcription
Welcome to Galaxy Brains. An infinite amount of cash cash. I'm your host, Alex Thornne. The US banking system is sound and resilient. Bitcoin made a new all-time high.
"If you're not long, if you're not long, you're short."
"Satashi's going to come on there, laugh hysterically, go quiet. Oh, Bitcoin's going to be erased."
"Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the best crypto out there."
"Bitcoin is going to zero."
Welcome back to Galaxy Brains. As always, I'm your host, Alex Thor, head of firmwide research at Galaxy. Bitcoin, not zero. We have a great episode for you today. Well, we have a special episode given the market price action. We are going to have a 30-minute conversation with BIMNet, a BB from Galaxy Trading, where we get his take because BIMNet has been calling for prices to be lower for now on this show, gosh, at least a month, right, Phineas?
"Yeah."
"I mean, we last week we was so bearish. I called him a bear. BIMNet the bear on the intro to the show. Um, and as we recorded last week, the Bitcoin price was 101880. Now we're below 90. Um, I would say BIMNet looks pretty vindicated here. But, you know, we're going to talk to him about where does he think this is going. I want to point out that he makes this very clear, too. He is a long-term bull. I am, of course, I don't think will surprise anyone. Finn, I'm a long-term bull."
"He's been consistent and and, you know, I can't tell each week whether we want BIM to what we want him to say. You know, it's like, do I want been meant to say that we're at a high or that we're bullish or bearish? I mean, we all agree that we're long-term bullish, right?"
"But does short-term bearishness allow an opportunity to get in at a lower price, which is something that seems rare."
"You were saying, right, like uh you know, you you I I Oh, I haven't sold any Bitcoin. Have you sold Bitcoin?"
"I've never sold Bitcoin in my life. Not a long one time."
"So, you've only bought. So, what what's your reaction to the lower prices now? I mean, I'm less experienced in trading than certainly you and certainly BIM net. It all makes me nervous when the price goes down, but I've I've been been in the market for a while now, so I know that if I'm bullish, then I'm bullish and I should be buying at a low point. So, do I always follow through with that or you know?"
"It's hard, man. They say they say when there's blood on the street, buy property, right? Like and we were talking about what forms a bottom in this interview with BIMNET and one of the things is you're like oh man those people were so smart they bought the bottom right and it's like well usually actually people that buy the bottom create the bottom by buying right like it's not so much that they timed it perfectly um but you know again that would mean people in size right like but we know oh my gosh that whale they really timed the bottom no whales can create the bottom um so I I also would say that in my gosh even just in the history of the show. How long have we been doing the show? Four years."
"Um I mean we were recording this show go back and on our YouTube or on our Spotify like I mean we've been recording the show through the entirety of the prior bull market and bare market and now the last two years of this bull market we were recording here at 165 to start January 23."
"Exactly. And you you can't what I've learned is you can't have a thesis only in the good times. The whole point of having a thesis is that when the market is shakier, your thesis, that's the only time your thesis becomes relevant. Yeah. You know, it's like if you're long-term bullish on Bitcoin, which of course we all are, then these are the opportunities to to prove that thesis."
"That's what I think. And but it does it does take some conviction, you know, and uh it can be scary when things are going down. Look, before we get to the interview with BIM Netabb, I've got to remind you to please refer to the link to the disclaimer in the show notes. And note that none of the information in this podcast constitutes investment advice or an offer, recommendation, or solicitation by Galaxy or any of its affiliates to buy or sell any securities. Let's hop right into with BIM Netabb. Let's go now to our friend Bimabi from Galaxy Trading. As always, BIMet, welcome to Galaxy Brains."
"Thank you for having me."
"Well, I I opened the show last week by saying BIMNet the bear is going to come on and be bearish and explain why he's bearish. And when we recorded last week, the block clock over my shoulder said 101880. Um, it now says 89. So, so materially I have to say, BIMNet, despite my consternation because I am a naturally bullish individual, you this really pains me to say this, BIMNet, you were right."
"Appreciate."
"And I would ask you how you how you what your thinking was but of course you've been explaining it in detail on this show for the last month and a half month maybe month."
"Yeah."
"Um where are we now though now that Bitcoin has come down to the you know high8s?"
"Yeah."
"How has your thinking of the positioning changed?"
"Um so there's some really interesting like points that are starting to to come up. Um, and this speaks to the topic of reflexivity, right? When you know, something moves higher, it becomes more likely to move higher. When we talked about this concept with DATs, and now you're going the other direction. And so, I'll give you an idea. I mean, you know, I think we were doing the math today on the desk and you know, there's some DATs and MSTR, for example, they have strategy."
"Yeah, strategy. They have um about $600 million in dollar liabilities uh on a next 12-month basis. And now their MNAV is um essentially at one, right? And so, you know, is he going to sell Bitcoin to finance the the cash outlays that he needs? Probably not. Um and you know, is he going to sell stock to uh finance um the the the"
"The premiums he has to pay? uh that that would be tough to do and probably not a good decision given that you're not trading at a premium to the underlying assets."
"Um and so like they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Obviously they can take out some credit versus that. Um but you know the the buying of Bitcoin has at least stopped and the risk is more flipped the other direction and you've got a similar story with uh Bitmine uh which you know I think is trading close to to parody now with with with net asset value uh which therefore means that their ability to to purchase"
"Should be reduced"
"Or or zero unless they already have like cash on hand. Um, but now you're in interesting territory where you know basically anyone that's purchased MSTR um since like late 2024 is underwater. Um, and there's a lot of Bitmine folks that are underwater. There's a lot of other DAT positions um that are severely underwater. And an interesting dynamic with um equity uh plays on crypto is that you've got some tax dynamics to that. And so, you know, what I think might actually start happening now given the magnitude of the move is that you might actually end up having um tax loss harvest selling uh to add to the sell pressure"
"On the equities"
"On the equities, right? Um, and you know, similar construct in IBIT um and ETHA um there's a lot of folks that have purchased it that are now underwater um on those positions. And so, you know, you have the the accounting rules in in in securities world where you can't repurchase it for another 30 days."
"Maybe sell it now in order to possibly reby in the new year"
"Potentially."
"I mean, normally you think, you know, when is tax lost harvesting season? It's like December. Yeah."
"Because you also might still want the position. You're not necessarily selling it because you don't want it. You're selling it to realize the tax loss. Yeah."
"To offset other gains."
"But, you know,"
"But you might want to buy it back."
"You might want to buy it back. But, but here's the thing. you you can, you know, sell the the the security version and buy the crypto version, right? And so, like, it's not it doesn't necessarily mean that."
"Yeah. Could you like sell like a Black Rockck ETP and then buy the Invesco ETP?"
"Uh, no. There there's rules about similar."
"Yeah. Too similar. But in theory, if you go from a security to a commodity, I I don't again, we don't we don't give tax advice on this show, but but there are some interesting tax dynamics that are now developing. um as well as like some capital market things um"
"That could add to the the reflexivity to the downside."
"Correct."
"Yeah."
"Um, and then you know just from a like sentiment standpoint like again this move has been pretty quick. It's been a week and we've dropped from 102 to 89. Right. And so like I still think that there's a disparity between sentiment and and positioning. Um even though price has moved a lot the movements have been very quick."
"Yeah. So you think people are still net long?"
"Yeah. And not too long."
"Not too long. Um, because one, like you know, like the liquidity's gone down, the vault's gone up, like you're not meant to hold the same size anymore. Um, and then the other thing is is, you know, the alt markets have, you know, completely, you know,"
"50% or more on a lot of them."
"A lot of them. And you know, ETH is, you know, as we speak, sitting below 3,000. You know, Salana testing 130. Um, and you know, a lot of the reason why, you know, crypto's gone up is because you've had the deregulation story. You've had the uh, you know, ETFs launch. You know, you had the Soul ETFs launched that this week, right?"
"Um, you know, Ripple ETFs, etc. And so, again, like it's it's a uh, an asset that's lacking a catalyst,"
"Right?"
"Right."
"We got a lot of good stuff. We got a lot of good stuff that was priced into the market and you know you basically priced um, you know, the tokenization of every asset on a uh go forward basis and brought it to the the present value in terms of what value is going to acrue to the blockchains in theory like and I feel like a lot of that was just so baked in to you know these assets."
"Do you think the tokenization of everything was part of that bacon? I I don't feel like that's"
"I mean if you"
"I think it's still just like industry pros talking about that to me."
"No I mean Definitely the like Bitcoin in every portfolio ideas or digital gold what nation state sovereign adoption those were ideas that were explicitly priced by a lot of the market I think."
"Yeah. No again, it's it's up for debate but you what's not up for debate though is you've had very strong technical breakdowns."
"Yes. That's right."
"Right. You know Bitcoin broke its 50w week moving average"
"And you were saying that what like every prior time you see that that's also reverted to the 200 week."
"Correct."
"Right. It doesn't. The 50 week is like what it broke after the 2017 alltime high, after the 2021 alltime high. And we know that 17's 20 went all the way down to three."
"Uh 2021's what? 69 went all the way down to 15 16. Correct."
"That was that we were here. I mean, go back and see the the block clock stamps."
"Exactly."
"Um Yeah. So,"
"But that would place it, I think, now where in the 50 60 range is where the 200 week is."
"Yeah. But it, you know, it's going to take time to get there. So I think"
"Do you think it does get there?"
"I do think it gets there. Um, it's just a question of when. And so if it in theory like the 200E moving average is an upward sloping line. So if you look at it from where it's likely going to be in like June September of next year, it's like 65ish 70ish, right? And what I do know for sure though is that every dip to the 200E moving average is a phenomenal buying opportunity. Has been historically."
"Historically [snorts] unbelievable. I mean, where we're sitting, you know, at 90,000 right now, right, effectively and and so like yes, it's been an uptrend for a long time. So, yes, every time it dipped. That makes sense."
"But for me, like I know for sure that level is going to get defended."
"Uh I will be defending it myself personally."
"Right. That's so that's your like downside target is the 200WE moving average wherever that is."
"Uh yeah. And I and I I think that's just at the point where, you know, at least for me, like that's, you know, where I'm going to have my bags that I will never sell."
"You pack for the long haul."
"For the long haul, right?"
"Um, very interesting. But so that that just to clarify though, this then is a thesis from you. This is the we're in the early stages of establishing a full-on bare market. Then that would be"
"Technically speaking, you are in a bare market,"
"Which is what a 20% correction?"
"20% correction. But you know in prior um bull runs there have been many well not quite what are we at 35 40% now off it's"
"About 30%"
"30% off alltime high"
"That that would be at the top range of the bullish corrections that historically have happened but not unprecedented."
"I think there's a lot of people who still think that"
"You know one more wick to 85 and then a V-shaped recovery and the trend continues. to to caveat this view, I will say that risks are a little bit more balanced like short-term. Um, there are a bunch of shorts that have piled into the market and and you know this the open interest is like super elevated and you've just come 30% pretty quickly. Uh, and so I do think that you know there there is a little bit of two-way risk particularly going into something like uh uh Nvidia earnings"
"Which could be good. I think we're recording this on uh Wednesday what the 20th uh the 19th. Yeah. Um, if you listen to this right when it comes out will be Thursday the 20th and video reports after close today."
"Correct."
"Obviously the largest equity in the world and so key to where equity markets go"
"And sentiment around AI which has really driven this market this year and so you know I think folks will be you know pretty glued uh in terms of like what is you know they say and and what they kind of forecast on a go forward. Yeah."
"Um, but there are some developments in equity markets that are concerning as well. you've had the S&P um you know trade and close below its 50-day moving average. Um, so that's you know one point of alarm. Another point is you know the VIX is trading on a 22 23 handle. It's it's reasonably elevated. Um, you've seen names like uh Meta um perform you know pretty poorly. Um, you've had you know hot momentum names like Palunteer go from like 206 to 170. So some retracing has happened"
"Retracing in rare earths quantum computing and you know if you look at like Amazon as well you know that looks like it's it's breaking down a bit and and there's a lot of charts in in kind of these big large cap tech names that um are a little concerning and then globally as well um you know I think the DAX you know traded down to its 200 day moving average you've got Nikkos co kospi um footsy also all like having like bearish technical developments at range highs after good years. Um, and so it does feel a little bit shaky. Now, the question is, can Nvidia beat by enough and change sentiment enough to to kind of trigger the the next leg higher? It's totally possible. You also have US data um out later this week."
"Oh, we're getting data again."
"We're starting to get data again. [laughter] Uh, so the September payroll print comes out Thursday morning at at 8:30. That's tomorrow."
"When were we supposed to get that?"
"Uh, that is the first Friday of the month. So the first Friday of October, we were supposed to get it and we are now in November."
"Got it. Uh, actually,"
"And didn't they say also that just as an aside that we would never see the October unemployment?"
"No, they're actually going to dual report it. So in the November meeting with Got it. Okay."
"So you'll get the October and November jobs."
"And where are you in your mind on the sort of economic macro, the the jobs, the inflation?"
"So So the the main narrative in the marketplace is kind of like a a K-shaped uh economy at the at this point in time. And what that really signals is kind of just, you know, uh, the folks that are really wealthy, uh, versus the folks that aren't as wealthy and, you know, kind of middle class to to lowerass folks and kind of the disparities in in their economic conditions."
"So, K meaning the higher part is going up and the the middle to lower is going down. Yeah."
"So, increasing uh, inequality."
"Correct."
"Key theme in the market."
"Key theme in the market and you see it in the data, right? So if you look at, you know, student loan uh default rates, if you look at subprime auto uh default rates, um, if you look at small business um sentiment surveys, if you look at um other broader, you know, consumer confidence surveys, etc. Um"
"All of them breaking down,"
"They're they're they're showing signs of stress, right? Um, you know, if you look at like the leading indicator of like economic stuff, like it's that's also started to to trend down. And then, you know, in terms of what you're actually hearing from companies, right, is that lower income consumers are actually um spending less. Like McDonald's literally said lower income consumers are actually eating at home more. Yeah."
"And like McDonald's is like, you know, probably one of the cheaper fast food."
"That's the mass market, too. That's for"
"Correct. And so, um, and same thing like with the Chipotles of the world. Um, and so from the the consumer side of of the large US corporates, you know, they're definitely signaling weakness um, in the lower income cohorts. Um, versus like if you're an asset owner, like you know, property values are still fine. Um, asset prices are are still fine with the exception of crypto obviously. Um, and so, you know, there there there are some concerns. And then, you know, you had Fed minutes come out today and you've had a bunch of Feds speak over the past couple weeks and, you know, the Fed's basically saying that they're probably not going to go in December. Um, and the market pricing is down to 11 basis points for that meeting."
"And it came to in the or the probability of a 25% cut went from like over 80,"
"Less than 50, closer to 40."
"So now it's more likely than not that there isn't a 25 basis point. And and get this, even for the the January meeting, there's only 22 basis points priced in. Not even quite a full cut."
"Correct."
"Yeah."
"And so you don't have that, you know, Fed coming to the rescue kind of sentiment in the in the marketplace right now. Um, and so uh"
"You know, it's a very interesting uh backdrop, but you do know that you know in 2026 you have a ton of capex coming. You've got the fiscal impulse from the big beautiful bill,"
"Right?"
"And so you know I think that's enough to kind of keep things um steady. Um, and you're not going to have like, you know, a huge cratering of the economy. But I do think that the probability of like a recession is probably mispriced."
"It's it's more elevated than people. Correct."
"Um, and you know, there there's a you know, like the market's not like people used to say um the market's not the economy, right? Uh, but more and more I think it has gotten kind of ingrained in in kind of like people's habits, right? People like to trade the market based on how the economy is doing."
"As in if the market goes down, it has a a pretty strong feedback loop into like the real economy."
"Do you think is that because of the democratization of investing, you know, fintech apps, stuff like that that like"
"Yeah, absolutely big wealth effect."
"Yeah. And even though there's, you know, a large portion of the economy that doesn't own assets, there are like maybe hangover from the co era, like a lot of people have Robin Hood and"
"Yeah."
"Things like that. But, but it's also like if you're corporate, right? Are you going to lay people off when with your stock at all-time highs? Are you going to lay off as many people? And now everybody's doing it because it's acceptable AI and improvements. Um, but you know, you're you're probably going to be more likely to, you know, cut down on on employment if your stocks move down by by 20%. Right? You're probably not you're not going to be as likely to buy a house if your 401k has gone down by 20%."
"Right? And so um, you know, I I do think that there's there's you know some risks out there that that are kind of underappreciated. Yeah. Um, but ultimately like, you know, if we do see a correction in equity markets uh which I am a little um concerned about um, you know, I do think that that dip will get bought"
"And so I don't really think it's like a, you know, a 10 to 20% correction. It might be more on the order of like five to 10% if you get it. Um, but you know, what's really troubling though is that I think you're in an environment where um risk assets can trend higher and it might not crypto might actually not follow right and and that decoupling is is kind of what's been concerning"
"And that's what we've been seeing so far obviously a little bit of squishiness like equity markets in aggregate like the indices and stuff um, but crypto trading I mean Bitcoin specifically as the example trading well lower than this mini dip that we've gotten in equities over the last couple weeks."
"Yeah."
"And so I think one question had been, well, is it sniffing out the weakness in equity markets? Is it leading?"
"Um, which yes, story still yet to be told, but"
"Correct."
"Um, or is it something more cryptonative, right? Like is this just like high beta on equity risk or is it something more?"
"I mean, I I just"
"It feels like something a little different and more."
"It's possible. Fatigue with Bitcoin and crypto and the DAT reflexivity and those things. Not purely just high beta on a"
"You know we would have what were two two and a half% 3% off alltime highs in S&P not just like that high beta like you know two two and a half% off S&P equals 30% on Bitcoin doesn't feel it feels like there's something cryptonative happening."
"No I I completely agree and and you know what I tell people is you know folks that have been on the crypto journey we were sitting here um in 2020 20 3 2022"
"I think like January 23 was like our first video episode or like our second and yeah it was 165 to open the"
"165 right 2023 165 basically in the span of like a little over two years uh you have gone uh to 120k"
"Was like an 8x"
"Right and so like there that's that's a phenomenal trade."
"Yeah."
"Anytime you you hit a 5x a 6x you know you're going to have a lot of profit taking."
"Yeah. And even no no matter how strong the fundamentals,"
"Right?"
"Right. And so I I think there's an element of that. Um, there's an element of a lot of folks believing in the in the cyclicality of of of Bitcoin and crypto over time. Um, and so, you know, I think that's kind of what what you're seeing. Um, now, I will say that, you know, it was probably a lot easier to um, you know, take risk off at above 100K and doing so at 89 is is a little bit more dangerous,"
"Right? This you're talking about a more balanced risk now, right? And and you're talking about the ex um enormous amount of short interest."
"Yes."
"In in Bitcoin and that can cause short squeezes too. But so you're thinking about a a volatile trend lower to the 200 week moving average. That's basically your base case now."
"That is my base case."
"Yeah. So you're but again that means you know be careful with leverage because there's I mean it's not nice straight line. Be very careful"
"And but you're is your is your um and you if you're talking about packing your bags for the long haul at a target you have in your mind then I think I know the answer to this but to what extent does this price action whether it's the I don't know if it's a decoupling or the um from equities um or anything else sentiment the the DATs that you know where there were way too many and presumably they'll ultimately probably be fewer of them have any or just the price action itself is that dented your longer term fundamental thesis about Bitcoin?"
"No. Long-term thesis is still strong, robust as as it's ever been. I think the math on on it actually increases every day if you look at the national debt and you know how things are governed and and so no like it has not dented. I'm I'm still a uh Bitcoiner. Um, and you know, I do think that I will see, you know, 200k within the next couple years."
"Yeah. And you're also a you're but you're also a trader."
"Yes."
"You you don't like So, for example, I gave up trying to trade Bitcoin a long time ago. I think Phineas was saying this before we started recording. We we sort of just look for good buying opportunities. You your day job"
"Is to trade markets among, you know, whatever else it is you do here and podcast and podcasting. Um, so so you do also need a short-term view. I just want to make that clear for people on the I think anyone who's watched the show knows that."
"But yes, you're you're looking at this in in that sense it's you're you're hoping to get lower prices."
"And I think there's a similar sentiment from a lot of Bitcoiners um like online that you know long longtime true believers that like I mean you know"
"Yeah. And I will tell you that"
"You're getting better prices."
"Yeah. And that's the flip side."
"It's cheaper for you if you're a long-term bull. That's good."
"Yeah. And and here's the flip side. like all the, you know, quote unquote whale selling that you've seen. Yeah."
"Right? These guys are also whale buyers. They were whale buyers at some point or whale miners and they're people that believe in in Bitcoin. They're just like, 'Oh, you know, I'm going to wait for better entry levels, right?'"
"A lot of them. Yeah. A lot of them enter the the market and value."
"Yeah. So now it's kind of like that sort of like game theory like cuz this is where it could get out of hand to the upside again is like if the market tries to sniff out a bottom whether it's all the way at the 200WE moving average or somewhere whether it's here or lower than here wherever it is some people who are waiting to buy lower might start to feel off sides and then they"
"You know there's going to be reflexivity back to the upside."
"Yeah. Because there's a there's a point where it's like wait a second are we meant to buy again now? And and usually when if you're asking that question you've already missed the bottom. And by the way, most people shouldn't try to time like crazy, like you know, but um because that's the one thing that I know a lot of people are wondering, my friends, people that we talk to that are long-term bulls as well. Well, okay, when like where's the bottom so we know when to pack our bags, right? And um no one knows the answer to that. I I I think you've been um very transparent and and thoughtful about explaining your thinking on this. Um, I see very little of that in the market of people explaining truly like what they're I mean honestly even bearishness people I lowered my endofear bull target. Not not the only target. Yeah. I mean I I mean that's a little bit of parsing hairs here because I I did say that like if you were bullish then a more reasonable target than 185 would be 120 by end of year. Yeah. In retrospect, it's like I mean and I was called a dirty bear for that obviously like I mean I'm going to look excessively bullish most likely unless something crazy to the upside happens in the next month."
"Yeah."
"Um it just makes me wonder people are people that's what I'm hearing. I'm not hearing a long-term breakdown in the fundamental belief in Bitcoin. It's a malaise about trading and buying it here."
"Correct."
"But that also"
"It's technical. It is technical and it also tells me that we haven't bottomed because"
"Um people aren't backing up the truck to buy yet that I can see."
"Correct."
"And and like that's it's not that those people time the bottom perfectly. They create the bottom by backing up the truck to buy. Right. And it just doesn't feel like we've gotten that yet. So I"
"I think you you need to kind of see um, you know, mass capitulation"
"And we we don't I mean I will say it doesn't feel that way. I think this week I think yesterday's number reported by IBIT was the which I believe"
"60 million"
"Which is the single largest day outflow of IBIT in its you know almost two-year history. So that's a signal. Um, and it and then the other thing is that um, but that that means it's Monday right I forget their whole thing's a day. So Monday"
"Um I bet redeemed in the biggest amount ever. Um, so maybe we're getting there, but I agree it's still feels like a slow bleed down. Yeah."
"And usually I feel like these bottoms are characterized by like an aggressive wick lower. Yes."
"Liquidations."
"Yes. Some liquidations, but then some high volume rebound usually. And we haven't quite seen that."
"Yeah. And we've just been going down in a straight line. Like I haven't seen like sizable short licks in a while."
"I know. And it was like And it was like we No, we we haven't. Like we we rebounded off 100 to like 103. Yeah."
"Then we got to wait. We Oh, we saw 98 uh 988 I think was after that first break of 100"
"And then just right back up"
"And then right and then but right back up to 103 but then it just bled then then we pretty easily just drifted down to 95 and then that was briefly some support but it wasn't like it wicked you know like it's just kind of trending lower pretty steadily. Yeah."
"It's actually not staircase up elevator down really. It's really been kind of like staircase down for seven weeks. Like the weeklies are I think we had one where we were just barely a green candle. We were nearly seven weekly red candles in a row and I haven't gone back to look but I'm but I've been watching this price for more than for about 10 years more than 10 years. Um I don't think we've ever seen seven red weekly candles. Even four which we have had now locked in four red weekly candles I think is like very very very rare. Like"
"So it's been pretty consistent drift lower. Just doesn't to me feel like the aggressive sharp wick down that creates the V-shaped bottom that that bottoms typically characterize."
"I haven't seen enough to to characterize us as being bottomed yet."
"I haven't seen enough."
"Yeah. And as a long-term buyer, you're looking for that."
"Yeah, absolutely. And again, you don't like, you know, the big thing about like bottoms and and tops is that you can be a fast follow, right?"
"Right. You don't actually have to try to top tick or bottom tick,"
"Especially if you have a long view."
"Correct."
"Right."
"And so once you start to see like if you buy within five 10% of the bottom, you're going to be fine."
"Yeah."
"Right. Um, you know, sell within 5% of the top or 10% of the top. Once you get that sense or whatever that development is that triggers you, um, you you'll end up being okay."
"Definitely. Don't try to And that's the other thing, too, like I know a lot of Bitcoiners who like to DCA and stack. I mean, you're just automatically getting better prices."
"So, I I would say Yeah. And and and just for more to put a fine point on it, like I don't we talked to a lot of people interested in in Bitcoin and crypto investing. I don't hear a lot. In fact, on on on X.com, there's a frankly an almost played out conversation about the the institutional versus retail divergence. I mean, institutions seem more bowled up on Bitcoin and blockchain technologies and tokenization and state than than ever before. Yeah."
"Meanwhile,"
"I mean, you had like what uh Abu Dhabi report uh buying the other day"
"And they said they were buying it as part of a long-term position. I mean, this is like a conipion bullish national bank last week bought a million test transaction."
"That's what they said though. But keep in mind that they also said back in January that they were exploring putting 5% of their reserves into it. Oh yeah."
"And that caused Christine Lagarde to have a conipion [laughter]"
"Because they're like a member of I forget what it's called but like the council of central banks in Europe. The check the CNB is."
"Um, so now it's kind of like and they and they did take pains to say it was just a test transaction but to me it's like well first you hate it first you ignore it"
"Then maybe you hate it then you acknowledge it then you test it. I"
"Think we know what comes after that. So important first step for that's the first central bank in history I think to have purchased Bitcoin. So yes, they didn't say it was like unlike the Abu Dhabi fund. They didn't say it was due to a long-term bullish view. Um, but they were they weren't saying it was but they were asking themselves publicly in a report they put out in January whether it should be part of a long-term view. And now it's it almost seems like they're sort of calling it a test transaction so that the ECP doesn't get mad at them basically. And it is small but"
"Yeah."
"Yeah. I think there are signs though at the institutional levels that this is still everyone's still in it. Doesn't look like a true break a breakdown in confidence long term."
"Yeah, I think it it would take a lot. I I think there have been too many people that have been orange pill for for for you get like an ultimate breakdown."
"I mean, I was just in a meeting that's just not possible. I was just in a meeting at a um at a large bank um and both from our side and their side. It's longtime financial professionals that love Bitcoin. Yeah."
"I mean, when I first started getting interested in this at Fidelity, it was like me and three other dudes at Fidelity [laughter]"
"And to her credit, Abigail. Abigail Johnson herself. Yes. But like I mean the the scope of uh and breadth and depth of people that are interested in Bitcoin now is just like you know orders of magnitude"
"Higher and wider than it has ever been. So I I agree. I mean I I think if you're a long-term bull like you are um, you're looking for an entry."
"Yeah."
"And so um, but my gosh, what a what a strange year,"
"Right? I mean Bitcoiners got"
"Roller coaster. I guess aside from an announcement or the actual action of the government buying Bitcoin for a strategic Bitcoin reserve."
"I"
"Think they've pretty much gotten almost everything else they've ever wanted."
"Yeah. Everything else got pre priced in."
"I mean, I think if a central bank had bought Bitcoin in like 2018, dude, that would have been like a 40% candle or 30% candle. Now it's just like, yeah, well, everyone's buying Bitcoin. Yeah."
"That's almost part of the the story is the malaise is sort of like, well, it's not it's not like"
"It's not really contrarian to like Bitcoin anymore. Not quite. It is. I guess just a little bit maybe, but"
"It's very mainstream."
"It also means you're not early,"
"Right? I mean, what are we? We're not quite You're not quite late, I don't believe, at all. But"
"I mean, let's face it, you're not"
"Worked in the industry for 5 years,"
"Right? And you were new [laughter] at one point. Yes. This used to happen when I would interview researchers um to join the team. They'd be like, 'Oh man, like I just joined, you know, I got interested in 2022.' I'm like, 'God, dude, you're brand new.' And then I was like, 'Wait a sec. That it's 25. That's three years ago.'"
"Yeah. Like that's actually a fairly long time to have been interested at this point. I guess I'm also saying that we're getting old."
"Yeah. I got I got the gray hairs to prove it."
"Yeah."
"Um"
"Well, awesome."
"Well, BIMNet AB from Galaxy Trading, the the bear who was right. We'll see if he continues to be right. I told you if you want BIMNet to not be able to stack at his level, then Bulls need to defend these levels uh to prevent BIMNET from being right. Okay,"
"Awesome."
"But congrats and thank you, my friend, as always."
"Pleasure. That's it for this week's episode of Galaxy Brains. Thank you to our guest and friend Bimabi and my friend Phineas Ellis from Studio [music] Friends. Everyone have a safe and happy weekend and we will see you next week. Thanks for listening to Galaxy Brains, the weekly podcast [music] from Galaxy Research. If you enjoy the show, please like, rate, review, and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. To follow Galaxy Research, sign up for our weekly newsletter at gdr.e., read our content at galaxy.com/ressearch, and follow us on Twitter, glyressearch. See you next week."