Transcription
Hello everybody. Happy new year to all of those who are already in the new year, like our friends in Australia, and New Zealand, and Asia, etc.
And this video today, I do this every year. Predict what's going to happen next year so you can prepare, and sorry, the video playing, so you can prepare for what's coming. Trade around some of the alpha that's coming. Save some money as well. And overall, be ready because I think 2026 will bring about a lot of change. It's very, very important to be forewarned, therefore forearmed.
Big thank you to everybody. I'll thank everybody for all the stickers and stuff, and our great moderators. But let's get into it. I have, I think, 32 predictions, maybe 35. We'll do the scorecard a year from now. Hopefully, we'll all stay healthy and be around a year from now. But let's get into it. This has some spicy stuff, too, and some comedy.
So, and, uh, as usual, let me pull up the, where am I? I'm juggling too many screens here. Let's pull up the disclaimer. This is never financial advice, just a guy on the internet. And a big thank you as well to Patreon. This one is from CryptoLondoner. We have a lot of Brits, actually, in the community. It's awesome. I've been a Patreon for the last two years, folks. Believe me, the best money spent. Game changing. Yes. And the game is important. And the fuse is ticking. Thank you so much.
Now, [laughter] 2025 was so weird. There are companies refusing to make predictions, but I will always put my money where my mouth is and my dollar sign, dollar sign on the line. Excuse that for reminding, but this is from Van. I thought it was actually very funny. "No predictions for 2026. Good luck out there." It's like everybody is so gunshy, and they should be, but not me. Not me. And what I'm about to show you assumes no black swans. Okay? So the world could end, etc. And all of this then is off the off the table.
Let's get to Bitcoin and crypto first. There's some things I do want to tuck into. Some might be a little bit optimistic, but again, I've been doing this. I've been working on this deck since the beginning of November. Two months of thought are in this. So it's not just random pack something together first thing in the morning. No, it was like literally eight weeks into this deck.
So, first of all, my Bitcoin forecast. Bitcoin, Beatcoin forecast could be completely wrong, but I think I think we could reach a new all-time high in 2026. And I'll tell you why as well. That would take us to 130K plus. The drivers and rate cuts and ETFs and potential new sovereigns. I mean, after seeing what silver and gold and NASDAQ and all that stuff did, and the global liquidity going up, and it's just something seems off. Long-term holders have stopped selling. All we need is a little bit of money coming in, and we go right back up again because this thing is hard. The big selling should be done, if not completely done. What this looks like on a chart is Lilo level eight up to just about $130,000. And remember, I am a little gunshy this year. Lilo nine is $148,000. We'll see. And then we go up to the Talm territory, north of that, $160, $200,000. A lot of people are still predicting a lot of that. Even traditional finance firms are predicting some big numbers. So that's my Bitcoin forecast.
Also, the Bitcoin forecast is a function of money flow into the ETFs. That's where a lot of the cash is coming from. And I believe we'll have a minimum of $15 billion net inflow into the ETFs. First year we had $35 billion. Second year $21 billion. I assume at least $15 billion. If we get that $15 billion from where we are now, that'll take the price to 130K. This is not a random guy pulling a number out of the air. It's calculated, and I know the multiplier for the ETF. So, let's see where we go.
Also, I do believe because correlations have always been there, sometimes they break, but they don't break forever. They come back. And I do believe the NASDAQ Bitcoin correlation, which broke down in 2026, will rebound back up in 20, in it broke down in 2025. It will rebound in 2026. Let's see. A lot of people were mad about the NASDAQ Bitcoin correlation for years and years and years. And boy, did they wish they had it in 2026.
Also, I do believe stablecoins will pop to $380 billion. It's currently about $315 billion right now. I do believe it's a huge use case for crypto. And remember, stablecoins are the fuel that drives everything. No money, no fun. This is the money that causes the fun. So, we need that to come in as well.
Not just that, I think real-world assets will more than double in 2026 as well. This is the train that you cannot stop. The world will be tokenized, and this will also help some of our other names that we're very familiar with, or US Treasury debt, tokenization of stocks, which are, you know, we got Coinbase doing it now, and Robin Hood. That's going to fuel this huge fire and take real-world assets on the blockchain above $40 billion. We're about $18, $19 billion right now. So it's going to more than double if, if it happens. We need some regulation in place to really spur this along, too.
Also, Solana in the toilet, beaten to hell, where nothing fundamentally has changed. The adoption's still there. The activity is still there. DAPs are like this top five DAPs, and Solana makes more money than the entire Ethereum chain. It's crazy. But I do believe we'll get back to at least $195 bucks from where we are today. Now, that may sound pretty disappointing to some because we were at nearly $300 before, but $195 target from the price it is today at $124 bucks, that's a 60% upside. I think I forgot to mention the Bitcoin upside. If Bitcoin gets up to 130K, that's a 49% upside. These are big moves. Okay? And it's so funny because this year we're ending the year on weakness. Last year we ended the year on hyper strength. So it's a different kettle of fish altogether. But remember, it's the price that you enter determines your ROI. So, would you like a 49% upside in Bitcoin? Not bad. And what I say for was for Solana, $195 for 60%. Also not bad. So we'll see where it all goes. But again, I'm putting my butt on the line here.
Also, prediction markets, which came out of crypto, I believe they'll continue to explode, and I believe Kelsi will continue to outpace Polymarket, and this volume could go easily, easily up to $50 billion again. Prediction markets are the new hot thing, and they're not slowing down.
Speaking of that, I believe because this will also fuel our bags a bit, US crypto market structure bill will pass. This will help things like clarity as to what's going on. Maybe ICOs and token launches will return. It'll be a huge tailwind for altcoins, not necessarily Bitcoin. Bitcoin's already accepted, but it could really help altcoins. It could trigger a mini alt season as well, and alt ETFs will continue to do well, not just the Bitcoin ETF. Watch this space carefully.
Also, final piece on the crypto side. I do believe adoption will hit 750 million users. That is up big from the current just over half a billion right now today. And again, once we start tokenizing everything, people are going to flood into the space, and again, it's going to raise all boats, just like global liquidity, just like rate cuts, all that good stuff. Again, it's hard for me to see dark clouds on the horizon right now, even though 2025 has been a sucky year. That's why Vanax said, "I'm not touching any predictions this year. You're on your own. Good luck out there." Their words, not mine.
Now, macro. This is very important too, because macro fuels everything. First of all, I do believe global liquidity would hit $120 trillion, up over $12 trillion from where we are now. Call it 10% gains in global liquidity. That will also float all boats. That's good. Good for Bitcoin and the space, even though there hasn't been any correlation.
The other key thing of macro that's very important too, I believe we'll get three rate cuts in 2026, assuming Jerome Powell is out and replaced with a dovish chair of the Fed. Again, three rate cuts, which will take us down to a 3% rate, and that'll, it'll be good for the whole space. Probably two, hopefully three. I'm saying three, even though the prediction markets only think two are coming. That's me again taking a bit of a rise because I know in order to fuel the markets, the rates need to come down, and that'll be very important for the midterms, and we're not talking politics here. So, let's move on.
Stock market and stocks. Couple of interesting twisty things here that you haven't heard anywhere else. But before we get to the juicy ones, I do believe the S&P 500 will hit 7600. That is a more than 10% gain from where we are today. Again, market will continue to go up, but only a select few of those assets will carry the whole market. Again, as I said for years, 60% of the S&P 500 are zombies by 2030 because they are going to be heavily, heavily disrupted by AI. We'll get to AI in a minute, too.
Also, I believe Tesla will easily hit $610, which is Lilo level eight, and that's a 36% upside from here, uh, to $610 bucks. North of that, we go up way north of $650. But again, that sounds conservative. There's a lot, huge amount of things going to happen in 2026, but I don't know if Wall Street will recognize the goodness until they see it in their little spreadsheets on their P&L accounts. Definitely by 2027, it's going to rain, and this thing is going to go to four digits. If it doesn't split at $600 before then, too. Remember, if it does get to $600, it'll probably do a two-for-one split at least. Remember that if you're an options trader, it's very lucrative, too. But this is a little sandbagged and conservative. In my gut, I'm telling us, I'm telling myself we're going to $650, but because of it's a prediction, I don't want people to bank on that, but $610 should be in the bag. Semis are coming. Optimus 3 is coming. Robo taxis are going to scale. Elon said that last night. FSD adoption is going to go through the roof, and people will be using it all over the world. It's going to be a huge year, but Treadfi will not notice it.
Speaking of a huge year, robo taxis. I've got an interesting take on this. I think 5,000 will be running around the roads in 2026, which is a lot. Remember, Waymo only has half of that. They've been doing this for 10 years, and they keep getting stuck. They're getting worse and worse. But that's the first prediction. The second prediction related to this, because this is turning transport autonomous, which is the biggest thing probably to hit the world since maybe something like the wheel or the cart or something like that. But this is an interesting prediction, too. And I'd love for people to drop a comment below if they agree. I do believe if Tesla goes into a city at scale, for example, Austin, and they deploy a thousand robo taxis, that's it. Waymo will be forced out of these cities. They will not be able to compete because the price is far less than half from robo taxi, and the cir, the surface area is far wider. Wait time will be far shorter, and the robo taxis get to their destination much quicker because the way Waymo works, at least in the Bay Area, it goes roundabout ways. I'm not sure why it arrives late, gets to the destination late because it goes a different route, doesn't go down certain roads because they're probably considered dangerous for the mapping system. I don't know. But if, I'll repeat this, very important, if robo taxi goes into a city at scale, Waymo dead. They have to leave. They simply won't be able to function in that town.
[clears throat] Next, Nvidia. Uh, these are, by the way, I talk about the most important assets in my opinion. They also reflect my bags in full disclosure, but I believe Nvidia will hit $259 bucks, which is also level, I forgot to put in the level here. Let me get it. Level seven? No, level eight. Also level eight on the Lilo. And that's a 40% upside from here. Again, all these things, 36%, 49%, 40%, 60%. They are very, very good returns for what people think will be a nothing burger year next year. I am of a different opinion. And again, this video will be there forever, and we'll be able to scorecard myself, or you can scorecard me when the time comes.
And also, when I say a price will be hit in the given year, it doesn't mean the price will be at that level at the end of the year. Please, some people get that confused. They say, "Oh, you said Bitcoin will be $130,000 in 2026." I think at the end of 2026. No, it just has to hit it sometime in the year. It could hit it in Q1. In fact, Tom Lee thinks it'll blow through that by the end of January. So, fingers crossed to Tom Lee. I hope he's right.
Also, what's going to be huge is SpaceX IPO will be a big success. The SpaceX factor could be one half trillion dollar IPO, and it could rerate the entire aerospace and defense sector. It could also have a huge impact on data centers in space, too. There's no doubt that Starship is working on ways of getting data centers in space somewhere. They've got all the wiring done with, with Starlink already, but this could be huge, huge for the planet and our future, and maybe the moon too, as well. Thank you, Bman.
Now AI. Big section on AI today because this also impacts how we can save money, how we can prepare ourselves, how maybe we can spin up a new business for our own family, a new side gig. And I've got some interesting things to say. First of all, XAI and macro hard. Apparently they changed the name to Harder. Uh, it's going to be macro hard, luring center, but it will start to disrupt Microsoft in a number of different ways. It could be productivity tools, you know, uh, it could be a new operating system. It could offer different ways of doing things, completely undercutting how Microsoft products work, undercutting how they, what they cost, etc. It also could have enterprise impact around cloud and infrastructure that could impact Micros, Microsoft Azure as well, and so much more. There could be hardware integration. Again, think of right now, Elon Musk has XAI working in cars. That's a hardware integration with AI. It could go way beyond that to many other things as well. And other partnerships could come too. And also, who knows what's coming, but either way, it's going to be very, very exciting. I think with the amount of scale that they are building, watch the space. Uh, and he's going tooth and nail after Microsoft for obvious reasons we won't get into as well.
And I think as well, uh, when you look at the crap coming out of Hollywood, no offense to any Hollywood people here, but long-form movies are dead. Okay? I know people think, "Oh, it's great to watch a nice epic two-hour, three-hour movie," but in today's world, ain't nobody got time for that. You know, the attention spans are much shorter. People want a lot of information, a lot of entertainment, very, very quickly. And there's other ways of doing that. So, I think it's going to be a big change for things like Hollywood. They'll continue to make movies, but probably use AI to script them, use AI actors, AI models, make them much shorter. Maybe there could be a time where, I always think, I got this concept where Hollywood sometimes make a movie. I don't watch many movies, but sometimes they make a really good movie that starts out really good, and then the middle is dead, and then the end is crap. But maybe it could enable people with AI to create your own optimal ending for the movie to make it a good movie instead of a bad one. That could be a huge opportunity too. So AI will hurt Hollywood, if not kill it, or impact it hard.
Also, I do believe there will be one catastrophic AI downfall in 2026. I don't know if it's going to be Oracle or OpenAI or Coreweave, but these things are in a world of hurt right now. They've taken on too much debt too fast, or they're not generating enough revenue to justify the spend, etc. They just, from a financial perspective, something's got to break. And I think something will break in 2026. Will it take down the whole AI sector? No, not at all. But there will be little bubbles bursting in different places. I believe we'll see one spectacular one. And I'm seeing crazy stuff happening right now with, uh, Open Bank, or whatever they're called in Japan, SoftBank. We'll talk more about that in a Patreon post later, too.
Also, good news for those of you who hate browsing. There will be the death of the click in 2026. Instead of clicking through lots of websites, people will get one clear answer from AI that reads or summarizes for them, and there'll be no need to click on the little blue link, hyperlinks within Google, etc. And I do believe AI will get to know you so well that it'll predict what you're looking for and what you want. Maybe it's the time of year you need a new pair of socks, or when I step into my car on a Friday night, it knows exactly where I'm going. It predicts my location. It's kind of crazy. So, that's going to come too, and that's going to change the whole experience.
Also, AGI. A lot of people think because Elon Musk did say there'd be a 10% chance that AGI Gro 5 will have a 10% chance of achieving AGI. I don't think it's coming in 2026. Soon after, yes, not 2026. So, we have a little bit more time to, as humans, to do some stuff around the, around the world and be functional.
Also, shout out to our friends in India. I do believe as well, India will be the top adopter of AI for a couple of reasons. One, they've got massive internet adoption. Number two, massive population. Number three, very fast-growing middle class. Number four, very young population. I think the average population is 10 years or more younger than China, that also have a massive population, but they also love coding and technology, and I think they'll be huge, the biggest adopter of AI. So for people like ChatGPT and OpenAI looking for adoption, they'll be able to go there. They may not make a lot of money there, but I do believe India will be a massive, massive market for AI. And what they do with that AI could be quite profound, which comes to another point I'll come to in two slides next.
SAS companies will have to adopt AI agents for analytics, CRM, documents, communication. This has to happen because the SAS software in the past, it's too crap, too heavy, too complicated, too difficult to integrate and update, etc. But now they'll be able to shortcome, some of shortcut, shortcut some of those shortcomings by deploying and integrating AI agents, which will augment the offering, fill the gaps in legacy systems, and it'll help a lot of companies. Those SAS companies that don't deploy AI agents in their offering will shrivel up and die. Those that do, think of the Salesforce and the Oracles of the world and Microsofts, they may have a shot. But there's another threat coming out of left field too, that's very important, and that is micro companies. I've made, I got this entrepreneurial corner within the community, which is very important where people can share ideas about spinning up ideas. But this will be something that will happen. This is what I call micro companies, or the power of one. One person with a couple of ideas and an army of AI agents. It could be six AI agents or a thousand of them. As long as they're creative and have the ideas, they can use AI agents to do all the knowledge work, uh, create, I don't know, customer service, uh, creative stuff, security, code, you name it. Manage HR departments. Wow, wouldn't that be good? Uh, and bypass everything. Again, there [clears throat] will be people, individuals that spin something up or spin 40 different companies up, and one of them hits and becomes a billion-dollar enterprise. If you have an idea and you have the drive, start looking down this path too. And this will impact the legacy SAS companies in a big way that are too big to get out of their own way, while the power of one with AI agents can run circles around them.
And tying back into AI and AI agents, back to crypto, which will also help adopt crypto and help some of our crypto positions after cruddy 2025. AI systems won't just think, but they'll also pay for things. They might negotiate on behalf of you, and they'll have their own digital wallets, which should be crypto-based, because they need something to be able to move very fast and be very efficient with very low friction. And this creates a new machine economy where software negotiates prices, makes payments, collaborates on tasks faster, maybe outsources to another AI agent. Who knows? And these machine-to-machine transactions will become bigger than human financial activity online. And they'll be moving at the speed of light. And this will happen in 2026. It's scary to think, but do not underestimate how fast things are advancing right now as well.
And one other thing, too, and I've been saying this since 2022, this is late 2022. If you're somebody who's thinking about doing an arts program and a no-name university for four years and it costs $50,000 a year, don't. [laughter] Unless you need to get them off your hands and you want them busy or to learn social skills, going to university could be a massive waste of money that they can never recoup. And I do believe in 2026, AI tutors will become the primary mode of personalized education, accelerating learning ad by adapting to individual student needs and pacing. And these AI tutors could absolutely take a huge chunk away from universities, which are now currently the central source of delivery and indoctrination, that type of stuff. But this is where people need to think. Now, if you can use AI to assess your skills, how your brain works, what you like to do, and then build a curriculum around that for a future career path. This is where you need to start. But you need to be self-driven because the good thing that university gives you is structure. You got to turn up to class and listen. Although some people don't turn up to class and they don't listen. But if you're self-driven, think about this path as we go forward too.
And getting close to the end here, ladies and gentlemen, AI slop will proliferate. AI media, AI videos, AI posts. Again, media companies will, some of them will be predominantly run by AI agents and that autonomously generate daily shows, newsletters, and entire media channels, and it's just all, all garbage. Maybe there's a single human editor that will overview stuff. But we're beginning to see this happen. [clears throat] Less real stuff, just regurgitation. So, be careful. Have your filters on because there's going to be a lot more of this garbage out there.
And my final point, I do believe Neuralink from Elon Musk and his Musconomy, Musk Industries, they will, uh, fix blindness in their first patient, restoring vision, uh, in 2026 via a brain interface. It's quite incredible what they are doing, but that would be incredible for so many people. I think fixing blindness, speech, they already do speech, um, hearing, all that type of stuff could be incredible. And I think that could happen as early as 2026.
And finally, meme dour. Have to finish on a funny note before I say thank you to everybody. IA will be replaced by AI. You know, things like, you know, because there's going to be so much slop out there, a lot of the AI generated stuff is going to eat away. Like if you go to YouTube, you can see the little warning labels. This is AI generator. You can, you can throw something into AI. Give me a war script of what happened at the battle of whatever XXX in year Y and create for me a 13-minute video and a thumbnail and everything else. AI will do it for you. Again, that ties into the slop thing. Who knows?
Well, I will, I will be here, if, if my health holds up, touchwood, a year from now to score myself on this video. But be careful. There's going to be a lot of that coming, which can be good and bad. Uh, I hope you all learned something today. I want to say a big thank you to Jean D, TN, and a happy new year to everybody. And cryp, a big thank you to Crypto Last Outpost, Rock Lobster, IQE Labs, Dreams 4641, a bottle of red in the UK. Hello. I hope you have a bottle of red tonight out there. Uh, Bullgums, Buckhorn, and I see you, Holly. And I just found out that's Forest. Hello, Forest. Now I know your real name. Uh, Alter, Quirk, Half Viking, Meatball, Be Reezy, uh, Swiper, No Swiping, Piper, Lex, Gravity, IC3 Blink again, and Crypto Cruiser, Bman, GQ Trader, and Chino Kim 16. A big thank you to all my friends out there in the mods in the chat. Let's get ready for 2026. We got to be better. We got to sharpen our trading skills and learn to trade around AI, too, because those agents are coming to outrade you better, faster, cheaper. And they'll have their own wallets, so they won't even have to seek permission. Let's get ready and prepare. Wild world ahead. Thank you everybody. Happy New Year. See you tomorrow. Bye-bye.