Transcription
Hey everybody, Kimosabi here, giving you the Sunday night update. What I'm seeing, and I'm seeing something that doesn't look horrible. It still is matching the pattern that makes it feel like it's going to drop, um, potentially soon, maybe this week, but it certainly doesn't have to.
Um, we're definitely showing the dips are getting bought up here. And you are making higher highs and higher lows on a daily here, as you can see by a high, higher low, higher high. There's another higher low. If this keeps on making higher highs and higher lows, it's, it's showing strength and may just pop up.
Um, I'll get to that after. First, the, uh, the sell setup that's coming, and then the potential for how it turns into a buy setup. So, for the sell setup, I'm looking at this leg up here matching this leg here on a closing basis. They look very similar. This popped up, popped down, popped up. It looks just like that ABC and then started to come down. What's going on right now is not looking like it's supposed to. This, if this was going to go down, it should have just continued down to match that leg, but it could be starting just like this at the top, and it's about to drop. That's why you manage risk appropriately.
Um, currently, I'm not really liking the buy setups, but if you keep making higher highs and higher lows, I'm going to have to switch camps. What I prefer to do is wait for the sell setup to invalidate. So, by matching this leg up here and match that to the downside from this lower leg here, and the sell setup invalidates with a closure, a daily closure above 975. So, if we get a daily closure at 975, that makes the sell setup less likely. And you can look, closing basis. Let's measure just the closes here on the daily. Bear with me here. So, on a daily close, actually, yeah, close above 96 technically does invalidate.
Um, but there is an Elliot wave sell setup that we can go over now as to where that invalidates. Switching this to linear scale. I had a measurement of a potential far there to be a wave 1, wave two, wave three that hits the 1.618. Then you have a 50% retrace of the wave three down, and then you target for a wave five. The extension of wave 5 is either similar to wave 1 or lands at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Now, that's really, really bearish. Um, maybe it goes down there, maybe it doesn't. Uh, only time will tell. But there is a clear sell setup coming, which is a 50% retrace of the wave three. So, we'll just measure from high to low of the proposed wave three. And you can see we've already tagged 382. I'm looking for a potential swing failure pattern at maybe 985, but no closures up there, like a daily closure, because that would call into question whether or not this is likely to go down. But there is certainly a sell setup there.
Um, you'd be turning this previous support into resistance right there at a 50% retrace of this move down. That would give you a one, two, three, four, five. And wave five, I would anticipate it probably measuring the same amount as wave 1, getting it down to 70ish,000. Kind of looks something like that. And I would actually really like that to happen on December 17th because of this peak being on December 17th, giving you ABC down, some kind of ABC back up, and a 1 2 3 4 5 essentially giving you like an ABC from here. Actually, it would be right to there to probably here for like an expanding consolidation. So, that would look cool and might get everybody really, really bearish, and then you just go to all-time highs from there and beyond.
So, reasons to believe that price is going down, um, based on an Elliot wave setup. There is clear invalidation for that, which is, I do believe trading up at 103. If it gets up to 103, especially a closure up there, then it definitely does not match this Elliot wave structure. And from there, I would have to turn to my usual method by putting it in log scale and looking at the potential bullish setup that I'm seeing potentially happening. It's, it's a slow moving, but it eventually takes off, and that would be a surprise move for everybody and just go to all-time highs from here.
Now, don't count your chickens before they hatch, but just looking at how this price action is is moving up and saying, "Well, maybe this price action is actually repeating." And in the center here, you have the ABC drop and the ABC drop. And those legs are just matching. Those, that is still valid for me, uh, saying that those two legs do match. So, who's to say that this doesn't just blast off? Um, I don't see it in the oscillators. A lot of, um, a lot of ideas have price going down, which I can trade it up, I can trade it down. I just think that we're in a choppy zone here, which is very, um, it's like a wave four. It's a reaccumulation similar to wave two. Looks like it's doing the same thing. As soon as that invalidates, then it's doing something else.
So, what would that look like? Potentially, if we're going to repeat that pattern, you have a move up, sharp move down, move up, chop around, and then pop up. So, if this starts doing that and it pops up to like a 100,000 and then starts consolidation like this, then it's get, it's getting ready to just go and leave everybody behind. And then to find entries on that, you'd really have to go into lower time frames. Uh, that idea is technically valid as long as the daily is making higher highs and higher lows here. But as soon as you see a daily candle close lower than the previous low, that makes that idea less likely. And we're just like gauging probability here. What's the probability of going up versus down versus just chopping sideways for the rest of the year or even into early next year?
So, for now, you, you kind of have a buy setup, but you have to manage your risk off the lows that are made, and you have a sell setup. And you'd be managing risk after this liquidity is taken right here. You manage your risk off of there. If you do see price chop around here, move up to say 96, 97,000, maybe upwards of 98, take the liquidity, push back down. Any break above that suggests that this pattern is repeating and you're going to have a breakout. That's, uh, probably substantial. And that would go along with the XRP portion of the, the last video that I made on XRP. That one looks like it's ready to go. The patterns match, the timing matches. The only, I guess, problem that I'm having with Bitcoin is the timing doesn't look right until December 17th, only because I like the December 17th there. I would like a daily divergence here. I would like this pattern to complete, but it certainly doesn't have to.
It certainly doesn't have to because the last place you, you turned off of here was taking this liquidity. So, now you took all of these liquidities. Every, every bit of liquidity is taken except for these lows. And beyond that, if you take that low, you better reverse because if you come back below that, you're targeting these liquidities down at 60K. But for the moment, as long as this is making higher highs and higher lows, you have an argument to say the daily is in an uptrend. And if the uptrend does continue, then that move can repeat. Certainly doesn't have to. We did have a slight daily uptrend start right up here because you did have a higher high that happened right here, and then it was followed by a lower low, giving you the downtrend or resuming the downtrend. But locally, if this keeps going up, there's, there's no argument that it's an uptrend. And there you go. The cycle low is in, you'd have a breakout happening, and it may move faster than most expect, and you may get left behind.
So, I'd say pay attention to like the $100,000, $103,000 area and watch for something like this to be happening in reverse and a consolidation up there. If price wants to be bullish, uh, don't really need to jump in 100x leverage at these points because the target for that, let's get a target just to show you what I'm kind of talking about. Trend-based fib extension measuring this leg up, projecting from that leg [snorts] a target of 178 would be the matching leg there. You'd essentially have your A B C. That's assuming the low is in, and you would have similar A B C. It should match in time and in price up that high. At least that would be my anticipation. That would be the target that I would make. And then we could just do that out into the future. And let's play around with this a little bit, and we'll start matching some legs. So, say we'll take a trend line. We'll match that. Oh, that's not the trend I wanted. And this is, we have a line that goes like that. Let's make it thick and clone it. And then we'll move it over here. Now, let's, let's play this game again. Move this potential matching leg up here. And then we'll clone that as well. And then we'll move that from here to here. And then take the previous leg and angle of that leg alone, that, move it over, match to that high. That takes your low to Wednesday, the 23rd of September 2026. That would technically be your four-year cycle low for Bitcoin. So, if those angles match, we've either got one more low, and we're going to go up and do that and come back down for the four-year cycle low. That's going to actually be above this range, which [snorts] that would throw everybody for a loop.
I'm going to switch this to the 2-day chart to get the price action from the 2022 lows and let's continue matching legs. So, I'll match this yellow leg right here. Clone that. Take that leg and move it right in off of those. Giving a target up there of like 400k. And then we'll take this little consolidation here and clone that one as well. Move that over to here. And finally, from the start of the bare market low, take that one, clone it, and shift it up. Grab it and shift it from there. We're just matching all the legs together, giving you an overall target of $650,000 per Bitcoin. That would be very interesting if this was our bare market for one year and we're about to repeat the cycle again with the ups and downs similar to the way it was.
Um, what I find very interesting is to take this and put it in linear scale. You can see the parabola that it could potentially be creating. That's just looking out into the future. We could just be doing this, and this is way more bullish than anybody expects going into say 2027, 2028, maybe finishing off that last leg running into the next having. Um, I think Jordan from Trading Mastery had this kind of idea that the top would actually be closer to the 2028 having than it is to the 2024 having. But this looks more like a Bitcoin bull market shape than, uh, than we've been having for the past 2 years. Uh, it looks more conventional. Just takes two cycles to do it this time. And this would technically look like a, a left translated cycle if it happens, you know, by the time the having happens. You have a 2026, late 2026, um, cycle low, and this peak happens in March of 2028. That's left translation. That would fit with cycle theory, giving you the left translation in the next, um, in the next cycle. And from there, we may see an extended bare cycle or consolidation that remains in the 100,000 range. Or maybe it just tanks to, uh, to like 50k from there. Who knows? But one step at a time. Um, but that's a little bull porn for you. This is a, it's a long, it's a long game. You don't have to trade every little move inside of this little thing. And just take your setups and play them as they go out. Eventually, you have these very large moves that are very expansive, and if you capture a portion of them, that's more meat on your plate.
Going back to log scale here on the 2-day chart and saying, "Hey, is this possible? Is this a possibility? Is this potentially what we're doing?" Um, I do still think it's certainly possible to come and take out the $74,000 low, but in the grand scheme of things, I would watch for a rocket ship coming out of nowhere. Just like all these other rallies, they kind of came out of nowhere. I, I remember most were not prepared for upside. Um, many were saying this price action was very corrective looking, and it just, it just short squeezed. Um, this next rally that a lot of people missed. We're looking at this as an ABC and saying, "Be careful here." When this was an uptrend, if the trend was to remain strong, it remains very strong. And then once the trend makes a leg down, that's doing something different than the very strong no pullbacks. It's doing something different. But then he gave you a setup to say, "Hey, you're making a higher high here. It's going up a little bit more to take this liquidity," which I, I do believe that high was like at $112,000 exactly, which is just there's orders up there and it's likely to get pushed through. And it did. And then you had this very choppy consolidation, which is reflective of a, a very illiquid market where there's no liquidity, where sellers and buyers, they don't want to buy the highs necessarily. You don't want to short the highs either because you're technically in an uptrend. Um, but you don't want to short the lows, and it's just grabbing liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, just constantly grabbing liquidity. And you may see that here as well with an accumulation. You may see liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, liquidity repeated, especially if this goes down to the low again. You may end up repeating this whole pattern over here for a reaccumulation. Um, I think that would take a lot of time. And if we're to have a weekly cycle low, and the camel finance indicator is picking this as a weekly cycle low, that puts this idea on the chopping block here, and we'll see if it gets chopped or not.
Uh, but yeah, it doesn't look bad, and it could mean severe upside. And then your question is gonna have to be, is that because Bitcoin is actually bullish, or is it because your currency is falling apart? That's the, that's the scary question. And there is kind of evidence that the currency is kind of falling apart. Um, gold pushing to all-time highs. The, the reason for that pushing to all-time highs, I don't believe has been announced yet. So, I don't think that, well, usually they announce the news during a distribution phase, and I think we're still quite a ways away from before distribution on on gold. So, is Bitcoin going to play a catch-up move to move up to, you know, kind of argue with gold as to who's superior? And that could be a China versus the United States type of thing where you have gold in competition with Bitcoin for who's an actual better reserve status thing. I do think gold wins out on that, but it would be healthy for, for Bitcoin to, to throw its hat in the ring and, uh, and give some contention to that, especially if, if Bitcoin's pushing up to these numbers, uh, and maybe higher. Maybe this, these patterns don't repeat and something else is happening, and you could have a 1 2 3 4 5. This is an ABC wave two, and this thing is going to go way more vertical than I think. Uh, but I think these, uh, lofty targets are lofty enough. And the idea of the four-year cycle low coming in higher than we currently are. Um, I don't think many people have that on their radar, square radar screen there, but it's a valid pattern. It's a decent idea as long as your weekly and monthly trend remains up like this. Why not lay the trend until the trend ends?
Um, yeah, this move, this, this video is long enough. So, I'm going to let you guys simmer with that idea and get roasted in the comments. Uh, do your worst. But yeah, until next time, keep them stops tight and have a good night. And watch out for this thing to be more bullish than you expect.