Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, October 5, 2025, in front of a completely green crypto market, and I even want to say in front of two completely green crypto markets. Why? Because this is the performance of cryptos over the last 24 hours, and this is over the week. So a good weekend, a good week, and it's Sunday, and like every Sunday, I'm going to do the long-term analysis. We're going to look at the weekly, we'll see if with this good week we've just had, it announces good things for the weeks to come, or if there are bearish divergences that mean we need to be a little cautious. We'll look at all of that tonight. I'll be live from 9 PM to 10 PM as usual with $1000 to win, offered by Bingx, the partner, as always. All lives are sent directly to your BX account. Don't hesitate to come, you just need a Bingx account too, my dears. The links are in the description, and we'll talk about all of that. So, this 24-hour period, I want to add congratulations on the new all-time high to everyone, even though I sent it in this morning's news video. Don't hesitate to go see this morning's news video, it's very interesting, it shows us a bit of what's happening behind the scenes. And so Bitcoin made a new all-time high last night. Of course, some are a bit skeptical because, well, it's the weekend, so a little short squeeze like that, it was a little short squeeze, you'll see why I'm talking about this, to look for some short liquidity because it was quite violent. When I show you a chart, you'll immediately understand that it's indeed a little short squeeze on a weekend. But it's okay, we don't care, because if tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, poof, it continues to push, then great, let's go, my dear, for a crazy October. The market is very happy. We have two different ways here to calculate the Fear and Greed Index. Everyone has their own little sauce, it's a bit complex. We take market sentiment, social media sentiment, we scan keywords. You understand, well, not everyone has exactly the same algorithm. So if we take the most well-known one, the market is at 74. We're starting with good greed. If we take this one, which is a bit more contained, a bit more, you see, under reserve, we're at 58, so there's still a way to go to have the market in extreme greed, which means we'll have to be very careful. A very good week, Bitcoin +12%, Ethereum the same, XRP, BNB +20%, Solana +13%, in short, a good week where everyone pretty much pushed, so we'll see what happens now for the coming weeks. So, in front of us, the altcoins in weekly, each candle is a week. First of all, there are no divergences for now, everything is fine. Perhaps tonight at closing, if the candle body, the closing above the candle body of the previous week, we could have a small, clear divergence, but it's still okay, you see, nothing special. A bearish divergence that could be a bit scary is if the altcoins break the previous high here, that is, the high from December, and the RSI is still much lower. And that would be scary if, for example, the RSI goes into overbought territory, then it pushes, like next week, the week after, it pushes, and then a divergence, you see, bearish on the RSI in the middle of overbought territory, then it would start to prickle, but for now, it's okay. We just note that the price is rising well, but we see that the momentum is decreasing here. Well, so that's the only thing that makes us say, well, some people don't like me saying to be cautious, but as an analyst, I'm just telling you, I'm just reading the analysis to you as I would read you a little story. Afterwards, everyone decides whether to be cautious or not. Well, so the price has been rising well for a long time, since mid-July, but we see that the MACD is decreasing here. So we have to be careful how a price can decrease if momentum decreases. How can a price rise when spot demand is decreasing? Spot demand is, for example, you and I buying. You see, we press the buy button. Well, it's simply futures that also move the markets, especially since futures now take up a gigantic space, an enormous amount of billions of dollars circulating, and so it can move markets up or down. So for now, altcoins, well, nothing special. Can they continue to push and reach the new record here from December? Yes, absolutely. Some will tell me, "Foufi, that's nonsense, altcoins, you say they're going to reach a new high, but my altcoins are still down 80%." Well, unfortunately, as I've been saying for years, there isn't enough money for all the altcoins. It's not even me saying it, it's just mathematics. There are millions, millions of projects, there isn't millions of times more money, you see. And so unfortunately, well, there isn't enough money for all the altcoins. So when an altcoin pushes, when it falls and comes back to the same level before falling, some are still at -80% on their altcoin. Some come back to zero, you see. And some come back to +50%, you see, they come back to the same level. And yes, that's why with altcoins, you have to be very careful, you have to be diversified, and with altcoins, you should have been 100% Bitcoin, at least that's settled. Do as you please, my dears. 100% Bitcoin and that's it. Well, it's not financial advice, of course. So, for now, altcoins are also in their wave B. So, if we talk about long-term structure, what is it? We had wave A for everyone from December, boom, until Trump arrived, hello, he launched a new bearish wave. It's wave A with its tariffs, it crashed everyone. Then we have a wave that corrects, a corrective wave which is A, which corrects this wave, it's wave B. Once wave B is finished, we reach wave C. This wave B must break the high of A here to avoid a devastating C that remains below the 50-day moving average. So, altcoins, it's rather good to see that they are breaking their short zone here. That's good. If next week we have a nice green candle that continues, well, it's heading for altcoins to push and reach that high. And that would be very good news because we would have, in the worst case, a running flat, meaning if there's a bearish wave, the correction that will last weeks, months, it won't go below the 200-day moving average. So, for now, it's not bad, but the altcoins need to break this little high. Can they do it? Yes, clearly, they can do it. Well, there's a slight lack of momentum, but why not. On the daily level, I'd put a small caveat. So, the day before yesterday, Friday at closing, we have divergences forming because the candle body is a bit higher than this one. Whereas here, we see the RSI, the MACD, they are decreasing, so the momentum indicators are going down while the price is going up. It's very much driven by derivatives and not so much by organic buying. You'll tell me, "Yes, but the ETFs are buying, but yes, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, but especially Bitcoin." Well, so for now, altcoins, be careful, I'm not saying it's going to fall, I'm saying well, there are divergences, so it could potentially correct. Yes, that's right, but it's not mandatory, it can continue to push under divergence, it can even explode upwards. How do you cancel a divergence? Well, you push, you push, you explode, and then you go back up in the momentum indicators, and this time, well, you go higher in the momentum indicators, and your price stays higher. So, but for that, we'll need buying. We'll need the bulls to all press the buy button. If you want, which is still possible. Well, after all, that condition is needed. If the altcoins explode, for example, in the coming days, the upper Bollinger band at 932 billion dollars here, a green candle that does this, it will be the widening of the upper Bollinger band, and bam bam bam, the altcoins will explode upwards, and the momentum indicators will surely explode too, and that will cancel the ugly divergence we have now. So, it's still possible if it remains a bit sluggish next week, it could correct sharply. So, to cancel a divergence, the bulls need to get angry all of a sudden. You see, that's the idea. So, altcoins, if we zoom in, zoom in, zoom in, zoom in on the structure, they haven't broken the high, these little rascals, with the wicks. They are very close, I'm talking about the high from September 19th. So, that means it's potentially possible to have a wave that goes down like this to make a regular flat to push. If they start to break 918, we'll go to a running flat like this, and a small wave will come later, but it will be gentle, and then it will push again. Our Bitcoin, my love. Congratulations on the new all-time high to all friends. Bitcoin reached approximately $125,750, give or take $50. So, for now, is this weekly chart beautiful? Well, this weekly chart, first I'll do my Foufi bullish. The Foufi bullish will tell you, after I do Foufi bearish, okay? So the Foufi bullish will tell you, look, it's going to explode, the upper Bollinger band, all it takes is for next week to have another candle like this that explodes the band, that confirms the Bollinger band will widen, and it's a Bitcoin bull, bull, bull, bull, bull, bull, bull, bull that will break, that will slide upwards with an upward explosion. And how far can we go? Well, you draw your Fibos, minimum $131,000, which is the first Fibonacci stop. Second Fibonacci stop, $166,000. Third Fibonacci stop, $201,000. It took 236, but that's already not good. So, $131,000, then $266,000, those are the stops for a Bitcoin going to the moon. Can it go to the moon? It has the right to. It just needs to explode with another green candle next week that breaks the upper Bollinger band. It needs the momentum here to return to the bulls, and let's go, my dear. Well, can that happen? Yes, clearly this scenario can happen, meaning October continues to explode upwards. Now, if I do my Foufi bearish, well, I'll tell you to be careful. Why be careful? Because tonight at 2 AM, something will light up. We'll call it a bearish divergence, and it's not pretty. Well, why? Because if tonight Bitcoin closes its candle body above $110,900, there's a chance it will do it. This means the price made a new high, the candle bodies, we take the candle bodies for divergence. We take the prices at closing, okay? So, Bitcoin made a new high, but the RSI, oh my god! It didn't make a new high. I have to stop making these cries like that. I admit it. So, the RSI made a new low. So, it's divergent on the RSI, those are the ugliest ones. The MACD, new low. Ah, divergence on the MACD. Ah, so tonight, if I do my Foufi bearish, I'll tell you at 2 AM, poof, it will light up: bearish divergence on the weekly. The last time a weekly bearish divergence lit up, it was when Bitcoin made a new ATH. It just, well, it just went from $124,000 to $107,000. Not dramatic. So, divergence can sting. That's all. Well, just be careful about that. So, after that, to cancel the divergence, everyone needs to suddenly start buying and it needs to explode to the moon, you see. Well, so for now, it's okay. Structurally, now I'll finish on this. Don't forget, this is wave A, meaning from December, well, from January, December to April. All of this is wave B, which zigzags, zigzags. Once this wave B is finished, we'll have to do wave C. Little A, little B, little C, simply. Now, if we draw the Fibos now, imagine Bitcoin corrects from now on. I'm saying imagine, I'm not saying it will do it. Well, the targets, we have the reload zone here between approximately $94,000 and $85,000. And within that, there's a gap, because let's not forget, my dear little Bitcoin, it's beautiful, it's cute, it's all soft. However, it still has two gaps, and I think there's a low probability that these gaps will be left behind. The first is at $110,990. I'm checking, yes, that's right. It's correct. And the second is at $91,970. I'm checking, it's $91,970. And so these gaps, it might not leave them, leave them a bit like that, if you want. These gaps, there's a very high probability that they will be filled, that they will be taken at some point. That's why the question I ask myself as an analyst is, when will it fill these gaps? That's the question I ask myself, you see. And so these gaps, it can fill them later. That is to say, if it wants to push and reach $130,000, if it wants to. So you draw, you see the little Fibos. Here, you can reach the first gap at, well, there's $130,000, $131,000 approximately. You see, you can reach these $131,000. However, once after reaching these $131,000, because the 17th Fibonacci level, these are levels that reject quite a bit. Well, it can explode them, but it will really take strong buying pressure to break that. It can absolutely break up to $130, $131, and then reserve the right to fall back, because imagine it goes to $131,000. You see, at $131,000, it's simple. For example, draw the little Fibos here to see with a high of $131,000, I'll even put, well, $131,000 and a bit. And well, we see that the reload zone will be there, and within the reload zone, there will still be this gap at $92,000. What I mean by that is that it's not because Bitcoin can start pushing to $125,000, $130,000, $135,000, $140,000, even $145,000, that we should ignore these gaps. I'm just saying that. Well, we shouldn't ignore this gap at $110,000 and this one at $91,000. Because even if my dear Bitcoin goes to $145,000 to finish this wave B, well, wave C can go to fill this gap, you see, to make a running flat. And that's a continuation running flat, and the bull run starts again. That's what I mean. So, we shouldn't ignore these little gaps, there are two of them left behind, and that makes it twice as likely to go back to look for them. That's just the small caveat I'd add to that. So, don't forget these little gaps. Alright, I'm moving on to the daily level. So, we can say, "Yeah, awesome! New ATH! Oh my, what a terrible candle! Really, what a terrible candle! Oh dear! Well, so it won't diverge. For Bitcoin to diverge on the daily, it needs to close its candle body tonight. So, it's possible that it diverges on the daily already, weekly, it will smell bad. There will be a divergence tonight. If tonight it closes with the candle body above $123,400, there will be a divergence that appears. Although, wait, uh, uh, the, the, it's here. Uh, no, no, it's okay. No, no, it's okay. No, no, I confused it with here. No, it's fine, it's okay. It's only the weekly divergence that will appear. So, here we see that on the daily, we have an inverted hammer candle, meaning a big wick and a shooting star candle, that's what it's called. These are not very bullish candles to be rejected like that without any respect. So, that's why an ATH, whether it's the weekend or not, an ATH that is rejected like that, meaning there's selling, you see. Well, after that, you say Foufi bullish, there's momentum, you see, it's there. So, can Bitcoin continue to push? Can it explode? Yes, it can continue. It's in overbought territory. That's rather Foufi bearish telling you, be careful, overbought territory, it's starting to overheat a bit, if you want, and on top of that, well, given this rejection, you have to be careful. So, two solutions. Bullish solution. Alright, it doesn't matter. We enter the overbought territory. It continues to push, we continue to break. It would need to explode the upper Bollinger band at $123,800 with a nice green candle. And then, poa, the upper band will rise, and boom boom boom, it will continue. Momentum also needs to push. Otherwise, if this inverted hammer candle stings, well, it's a reversal, unfortunately. And Bitcoin exits its overbought territory where it puts a toe and deflates a bit. So, what does the structure tell us? It tells us that, well, it's done, we've made a new all-time high, so we cancel the fact of breaking below $107,000 for this regular. So, be careful, this regular has two scenarios. Scenario number 1. Okay, now it's no longer a regular, it's a running flat, sorry, because we broke the low. So, here's scenario number 1, it's roughly this: little A, little B, it will go, it will reach the gap, and then it will leave. So, that's for a running flat. A here, B which is in three parts, C will surely reach the gap. And here, we have a running flat, and boom, and we continue to explode. And the gap at $92,000, we forget it, we leave it for later, but at least we take the gap at $110,000. That's the first scenario. Second scenario is that it finally made a contracting flat, which is a very rare structure. Well, but it happens, but a contracting flat this big is still rare, or finally, well, this is the structure. Poof, there it is, contracting, little A, little B, little C. And then it pushes, it pushes, it pushes. That's good, since it broke the high, it validated the contracting flat. Because to validate this structure, you just need to break the high, and it's validated. After that, the structure says, "No, I'm validated." So, after that, I don't care, we can change, we can do something else. Well, and so if it starts to fall, it can sink and go much lower because, ultimately, well, it has already validated the structure, and now it's just starting a new corrective structure, the amplitude of which will be proportional to the first wave, which will be wave A. That's the idea. Well, so how do we know if Bitcoin will start a new corrective structure? Well, unfortunately, it needs to break $107,000. If Bitcoin breaks $107,000, it means it has indeed validated a contracting flat here and is starting a new corrective structure. Well, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break $107,000, we assume there's still this running flat scenario like this here. Bam, bam. Now, I'm not saying it will correct now, it can correct later, okay? And it won't reach $107,000. So, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break $107,000, there's still this running flat that says, "Okay, I can correct a bit, maybe reach the $110,000 gap, but boom, then I'll explode." Well, so breaking $107,000 will smell like trouble. Now, regarding liquidations, well, look, I was talking about a short squeeze, because that's exactly what it is. So, here you have all of Saturday, it dragged on, dragged on, dragged on, it was there, "Hmm, I'm hungry, what am I going to eat?" And all of a sudden, around 4 AM, 4:29 AM, it said, "Hmm, I have a little craving." So, Bitcoin got up, opened the fridge, and said, "Hey, this looks good." Yum. Because it lasted between 4:30 AM and 6:45 AM, you see? And boom, a little first bite, I wait a bit, and a second bite, and then I turn around. It didn't want to eat that. It said, "No, there's not enough, these are smaller leverage, I don't want it." That's what's there. Well, after eating all that, it said, "I still have a little craving and I want to eat downstairs." So, if it's hungry, it will eat up to $119,000, it can eat up to $117,000, but unfortunately, it can go below $106,000. So, as long as it doesn't break $107,000, it's fine. It doesn't have to go below $107,000. It's fine to make a running flat to leave again afterwards. So, here we see clearly that, well, unfortunately, for example, if Bitcoin goes, here it's around $107,000, it eats $20 billion. If it goes north to seek $128,000, it eats around $4 billion. Well, so after that, we'll see what it wants to eat, right? Well, so we'll see. Alright, excuse me, I've talked a lot about Bitcoin. Uh, let's move on a bit faster for Ethereum. So, Ethereum here on the weekly. So, for now, no divergence. The divergence appeared when it was at $4,950. It had a small drop to $4,800. Well, but nothing special for now. We just see a slight loss of momentum. The RSI is deflating with the price. So, what's interesting is that we have a small bearish channel. As long as it makes a small bearish channel on the weekly, the next step is boom, explosion towards a new all-time high. So, making a bearish channel, that's very bullish for the future. We have gaps for Ethereum, the equivalent of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin wants to reach its gaps up to $92,000, it can reach $2,853. After that, the gap at $1,733, that's tough, really. 60% would rather be a bear market gap, you see. But the one at $2,853, well, if Bitcoin goes to $92,000, it will reach $2,853. That's the idea. So, for now, nice bearish channel, no divergence, it's deflating, that's rather good. But I'd just put a small caveat on the fact that there's a loss of momentum for the bulls, and if it continues, a bearish cross will occur on the MACD, and that will mean Ethereum is likely to take a bit more of a hit. So, for now, nothing special. For example, here on the weekly structure, we still have A. Here, we have B which zigzags, which could continue to rise. If it makes a bearish channel here, boom, B will continue, and later, there will be a wave C. But since Ethereum is on a running flat, like Bitcoin, well, C won't be nasty, it could, why not, reach $2,853, but that's really if we take a big hit, you see. Well, so for now, it's not too bad. On the daily level, it's the same, there's no divergence at all. Ethereum is rising steadily, the RSI is rising steadily, the bulls are steadily regaining momentum. Well, it's not very agitated, this Ethereum. To start being very agitated, it needs to break this upper Bollinger band at $4,745. Then it will strongly go up. For now, well, here, it made a first bullish wave, you see, from $3,360 to approximately, let's say $4,660. Here, it's just correcting this wave. It can continue to zigzag. This is the weekly channel you see. You see, it's this channel. And as long as it stays in a small bearish channel like this, for the future, it will always be a nice little explosion. For now, it's in the short zone. So, regarding liquidations, it's the same. Look, it was a bit hungry too, uh, uh, last night at 4:30 AM, and look, boom, it went to eat the biggest leverage. Exactly at the biggest leverage. The biggest leverage was around here, you see. Hop, it ate all that. Yum yum yum yum. That's all. After that, it said, "Okay, I've eaten enough." So, to the north, it has approximately nearly $6 billion if it goes to $4,900. To the south, if it goes to $3,969, there are about $12 billion. So, can it still nibble, attack this cluster here between approximately $4,620 and $4,680? It has the right to. After that, there's not much left above, approximately from, I've rounded up, from $4,007. Above $4,007, it only eats that. There's not too much there in terms of Solana. So, Solana weekly, for now, it's going rather well. No scary bearish divergence. A slight loss of momentum, but it's still okay, the bulls are there, so it's pushing well. You see, a nice recovery for Solana. It had reached $415, so it made a nice recovery. So, for now, Solana to the moon, that's when it explodes the upper Bollinger band weekly at $244 with a nice green weekly candle, and bam, it's off on a nice weekly moon journey that can last several months. Now, I'll put a small caveat regarding the weekly structure, where we clearly have wave A like everyone else. Here, we're doing the zigzag, the nice wave B that zigzags. Once wave B is finished, we'll have wave C. Okay? So, for example, what does that mean in terms of investment? Well, it means, for example, a beginner who says, "I'm buying here because on the norm, it said it's going to the moon." Well, tell yourself that at some point it can go to $300, even $350, but at some point you'll have this wave C, and we're closer to wave C, the rising wave. You see, when Solana was at $95 in April and you were reaching the 200-week moving average, which is one of the biggest weekly supports you see, it really smelled like you were closer to the bottom than the top, if you want. So, someone who bought heavily around here, you see, it wasn't a bad idea, you see, because you're on the biggest weekly support. However, now that wave B has risen well, zigzag, zigzag, zigzag, Solana has gone from $95 to $254, I remind you. So, for those who say altcoins, no, nothing happened. Solana, even those who arrived late, arrived in April, Solana has almost made a 2.5x, you see. Well, that's not bad, a 2.5x in a few months on an investment, that doesn't exist in the stock market. Well, in short, so be careful. So, we're closer to the end, and when I say closer to the end, it might be in a few months, I don't know. Maybe in 1 month, maybe in 3 months. Well, so those who are in "yeah, now I'm buying everything" mode, just be careful, just be careful with your little positions, you see. Well, and the idea, once wave B is finished, boom, wave C. You have to pray that this wave B breaks $297. Solana needs to get agitated, break the upper Bollinger band at $244, and go above $300, and then it will feel good for wave C because it will be less nasty, if you want. On the daily level, well, no divergence, they're going calmly, like Ethereum, the RSI is rising, the bulls are a bit tired at the same time. Well, because it's in the middle of a major short zone, this little Solana. However, as long as it doesn't break $253, be careful not to have a small drop, it doesn't change the structure, as I tell you every day. So, that's why I'm moving on. Solana also had a small short squeeze to eat a lot of liquidity. It still has a lot to the north, you know. Solana still has a lot to eat up to $260. So, it could eat all of that up to $260, there's approximately nearly $2 billion, and at $200, there's approximately $2.5 billion. So, it's almost a tie, liquidity to the north and south. So, this little bearish channel it's making, it could explode to reach a bit to the north. It has the right to make this little consolidation to boom, explode, and reach the highs. It can absolutely do that. Nothing prevents it. The upper band is the next resistance, which is here, around $254. If it breaks $254, poof, it's off. The widening of the band, and Solana explodes upwards. Well, and to finish, XRP. So, XRP weekly, so now, well, it has, since its big divergence here around $360, the RSI has deflated a lot, momentum has also deflated. Rather the bulls, the bears are there. For now, it's rather good as long as it holds its Kijun at $262, it will be fine. So, there are two gaps in XRP, at $252 and $213. We need to keep that in mind for later, maybe in a month, 3 months, I don't know, when things start to look not so good. However, this is very nice for XRP, a bearish channel like this, it's very nice. Impulse, correction, continuation. So, it can reach the 50-day moving average at $2.40, okay? It has the right to go there. However, as long as it stays in this channel on the weekly, it will be a big upward explosion to reach above $3.6. So, as long as it makes this little channel, it will be very good. At some point, this channel, the bulls will regain momentum, and it will push. You see? So, for now, it's really not a different structure for XRP because it changed its structure with everyone, because when there was the, they said for the, the kind of lawsuit that lasted for years, it's over, XRP exploded completely. So, it made an impulse, a correction, it re-impulses, it makes a correction, you see. So, the weekly structure is rather nice, personally I like it, it's not bad. After that, be careful, it has the right to take its big hit like everyone else. If everyone falls, it heads towards $237 here. On the daily level. So, on the daily, it doesn't diverge, you see, calmly. If it explodes its upper Bollinger band in the coming days at $313, then boom, it will go strong. Especially here, it's perhaps preparing a small regular flat to explode, to reach above $33. If we look at liquidations, we see that there's a lot to the north. So, it also had a short squeeze last night around 4 AM, because it ate almost all the big leverage. It still has a little bit left. It could eat up to approximately $325. At a minimum, it can go up to $316, but it can nibble a bit more to eat all of that. There's approximately $500 million, and to the south, at $260, there's a bit more, $600 million. So, there are quite a few shorts that have been put in, these little rascals. We won't be surprised if XRP makes a little move like this, boom, to reach around $316, in any case, just above this previous high. That would be good news because if it starts to break this high, well, it won't break $209, it will start again even stronger. Well, that's it, friends, this little analysis today. We'll meet again from 9 PM to 10 PM to talk about all of this. I'm sending kisses and see you later for the live.