Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape that you see. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Thursday, October 16, 2025, in front of a cryptomap that doesn't inspire much, unfortunately. So the problem is that the American government is closed, so there is no strong macroeconomic data. So bullish or bearish catalysts, well, for now, we don't have any. We had a flash crash on Friday with a very strong bearish catalyst, which was, unfortunately, the tariffs imposed on China and the trade tension between the two countries. And the problem is that we lack a strong catalyst. There was a catalyst that was not bad, but the markets have ignored it for now. It's the speech by Jerome Powell the other evening, we were during the live stream where, well, he did say that employment is not doing so well, so well, there are strong priorities for rate cuts today. Many governors from different Feds have spoken. They are, well, almost all in agreement that a rate cut is needed. So there are still very strong probabilities of a rate cut by the end of the month. 96.77% probability of a rate cut. Well, for him, with his speech, which was quite accommodating, he was not at all in a "no, we won't cut rates" mode. On the contrary, he says that it hasn't changed employment, it's still on a downward trajectory. So clearly there will be a rate cut, and furthermore, the central bank will reduce its balance sheet. That is to say, well, they will stop, if you like, the balance sheet reduction, meaning no longer reinvesting in the bond market. It's just about taking the money, putting it aside. So that means we could potentially have a little quantitative easing coming, where the Fed supports the markets a bit by injecting some money. That's the idea. So that was still a bullish catalyst. But cryptos aren't enough. And we can ask ourselves why cryptos aren't going back up, while traditional stock markets have actually gone back up. You see, on Friday, it wasn't good for anyone. On the other hand, the stock market has recovered, you see. It's not a nuclear ascent either, but it's still a small rise, you see. That is to say, cryptos, no, cryptos are continuing a bit. Well, it's more of a descent, you see, and so why? And so, well, there can be several reasons. You need to be Madame Irma to know exactly what could happen, but we feel that there may have been a small shock for crypto investors who are in cautious mode. We had a flash crash on Friday because of Trump wanting to start a new war with China. And since there is no agreement between China and the United States saying "Yes, it's okay, don't worry. Come on, it's fine, we're friends, you and I, between Trump and the Chinese president." Well, as long as there is no agreement, I think the crypto market is tense. That's all, you see. Well, you'll tell me what you think. Why is the crypto market continuing to fall while the stock market has recovered well? That way, I can see your arguments and ideas. Don't hesitate to put that in the comments. So, a little red market again, that's 24 hours. Well, it's been 3 days now. Bitcoin ETFs are not doing great. 326 million sold on Monday, 102 million bought on Tuesday with Powell's speech, which wasn't bad, 104 million sold yesterday. Ethereum is slightly better, but 428 million sold on Monday. Well, it's calmed down a bit with purchases of 236 million on Tuesday, 169 yesterday. For now, we're almost at zero for Ethereum. Bitcoin is in the negative with the market still a bit in fear, which explains why there's no "to the moon" happening right away. On the other hand, on social media, I shared today that short-term holders, those holding between 0 and 1000 Bitcoin, are buying again. That's rather positive. Well, so here, little altcoins, poor things, they were rejected at the 50-day moving average, here or 843 billion dollars. And so, it's heading towards the major supports. Where are the next ones? Well, here. Here we have four major supports, a quad terio de de ter deo tero quatro. Well, we have four supports. You get the idea? A trio, a quatorial trio. Trio quatorial. Well, I'll try to cut that in editing, but I don't know how to say it anymore. Four supports, that is. Well, and so you see that you have the Kijun, the Tenkan, the lower Bollinger Band, the 200-day moving average, they are all here around 715 billion dollars. What does that mean? Altcoins can have a small drop of about -6%. It's not too serious. It will sting the portfolio a bit, but it's not too serious. Okay. However, if we see a drop of more than 6% with a red candle breaking our four major supports, well, you understand that it's a descent towards the bottom of the shovel, and then it can be complete carnage, really carnage. So we really must not break these four supports. There. I'll put it that way. For now, they are held by this short zone, which is the bears' territory. That's what we were saying these past few days, if this low broke, it wasn't looking good. Well, good thing, this low broke. Well, and so what's not good? Well, it unfortunately smells like a vaccine that wants to test a bit lower, test the wick, you see. Unfortunately, that. So we have something very ugly, but we can see here the A, this B like this, and then the C which will scrape a bit, maybe do this to rebound. It doesn't smell too much like roses for now, unfortunately. The bears are here, and in terms of momentum, we are below 50 on the RSI, the bears' territory. Well, there are better things. There are better things. There are better things. Well, well, however, with Powell's speech, it's not bad for the medium to long term, but in the short term, we can also take a hit, no problem. Regarding our beloved Bitcoin today, 110,200, the rampart of 110,000. Now, I want to tell you, the rampart isn't exactly 110,000, it's more like 107,000 dollars where there are two supports, the 200-day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band at 107,000. So, will Bitcoin try to make a kind of double bottom here, one bottom, two bottoms, and rebound? But in that case, the 200-day moving average at 107,000 dollars will have to hold. And we've understood that if we have a red candle that breaks the 200-day moving average like that, it will be hell because the lower Bollinger Band will widen and bam bam bam, and then we can go down to around 100,000. 100,000 is a very strong weekly support. We'll talk about it again on Sunday. Well, at this level, we see the structure. Well, it's not pretty. So what were we expecting? The simplest structure, the one that happens most often in terms of probability, is a regular flat. What is a regular flat? It's that you first have wave A that does this, wave B that doesn't break the top of A, and wave C, boom, that breaks the bottom of A. There, that's a regular, which is a continuation structure. When you push from the bottom upwards, and then you do your regular flat, boom, you go again. Okay, it's impulse, correction, continuation, and you go for the higher high. That's what happens most often. That's why in recent days, well, I, naive as I am, I say to myself, well, we're going for a regular, and if it changes, we'll see. So it looks like it's doing that. Small A, small B, well, maybe the small C that will continue. So, a very ugly regular, but that's the idea. There. And so, unfortunately, what says regular says looking below the wick at 105. I'm not saying it will necessarily do that. I'm saying that, well, we don't know, we're assuming we'll take the thing that has the most probability, which is a regular. Now, a regular's C can fall. C doesn't have to stop just below 105. So it can stop just below 105 and rebound. It has the right to do that, especially when you look at the liquidity, you have just a big cluster around 105. After that, you have nothing. You see, you just have 105, you have about 5 billion there. So it can just say a little hello below 105 and then go to the moon. Above the high of A. That is to say, we'll go for the all-time high. Clearly. Well, is that possible? A dip at 105 and then an all-time high. Yes, a dip at 55, eat that. And validation of the regular, all-time high. However, we are not immune to triggering, or a C that hurts, C goes lower, goes to 100,000 or even 98, and rebounds. That would be possible. Or a new structure. But to say that we are on a new structure, which is rather a weekly structure, to finish the weekly structure, which is the big C of the very long-term weekly structure. I talked about it last weekend. Remember. Well, in that case, it's the big C, it's directly hello 92. But for that, we'll see. One thing at a time. Well, so, we see that it's nibbling, nibbling, nibbling. And you see, wicks very often unfortunately have a high probability of being retested. And so here, well, I'm going for the little wick. But we still keep the positive aspect, all these liquidations to the north to look for 12 billion dollars around 122,000, that's something positive. Ethereum. Well, unfortunately, a little descent, a little bleeding. Next support, well, the lower Bollinger Band at 3757. Breaking 3757, heading for the 200-day moving average at 317. Can it go there? Ah yes, it can go there without a problem. Bitcoin continues the same, a little regular flat, the little A, the little boom, C, looking below the wick, going to the 200-day moving average is still very possible. If the vaccine, if it has to fall, break the Bollinger Band, I think it will go for 3158, the 200-day moving average at 3158. Is that possible? If we look at the liquidity, well, in any case, there is plenty below 3500. There is almost as much to the south as to the north. There are almost 5 billion to the south and north. So, around 3500, it's below the wick. So an Ethereum that will nibble its wick here. The problem is the wick is here. That would mean breaking the lower Bollinger Band, it will test the wick. And if the Bollinger Band widens, the next major support will be the 200-day moving average, which is around 3166. You see, I think there is very little probability that it will fall, stop just below the wick, and rebound. You see, the next major support is there, if it falls, it's 3150, 3160. That's why, for now, it's the scenario that seems to be happening. The bears are here, they are not very, very nice, there is momentum. There have been good bullish divergences here, but for now, it seems like it will finish the regular before going up again, because even if it goes for 3005 or even lower, we don't forget that to the north, shorts are accumulating. So one day we'll have to take out these shorts, or 5.4 billion around 4500 dollars. Regarding Solana, it's the same, same scenario, same chart as everyone else. It went to test major resistances, it's bleeding, it's bleeding. Where to? Well, the next support is the 200-day moving average, which held for 3 consecutive days. It held on Friday, October 10th, the carnage also at 173. So, 173, can this little Solana go there? But clearly, to finish its little regular, little A, little B, little C. And after that, we don't forget that the validation of these regulars is when it goes back up. Okay? Don't forget that. Well, so, can it go below the wick around 170, which corresponds to the 200-day moving average? If we look at the liquidity, yes, clearly, there is something to eat. Up to 170, there is about a billion, but look, there is almost as much to the south as to the north. So, in fact, despite the flash crash on Friday, on the small, on the rebound we had, you see the rebound of 2 days later, well, there were a lot of shorts that were placed, a lot of longs that were placed saying "it's okay, we had a flash crash on our bot, we're all going to the moon." But people forgot that the market often goes to test the big wicks. Why? To go and get all the positions that were opened during the wick's rise, simply. So, for now, the scenario is small A, small B, small C, looking below 170. If all goes well, the 200-day moving average will hold, because it has the right to make a candle, you see, that holds the 200-day moving average and a wick a little below, you see, I'm making a bigger candle. There, you see, and the wick is a little below, so you're going for that wick, but you're closing above the 200-day moving average. However, if it makes a red candle that breaks significantly with its body, the 200-day moving average at 173, it will be a descent. Bam bam bam bam, heading for the gap at 121. So you see, and so what would that mean? It would mean that instead of making this little regular, and this is valid for everyone, and then rebounding, we'll make, instead of making wave C of this regular, which is the little regular, so to speak, to go up, we'll make wave C of the big weekly running, and then Bitcoin will head towards 90,000. You see, you don't see what I'm talking about. Go watch last Sunday's video. Every Sunday I do the long-term analysis, and well, you'll quickly understand. Regarding XRP, XRP was rejected by its 200-day moving average. It's the only one among the major caps that is below the 200-day moving average. Now we see that the lower Bollinger Band is starting to widen. I think it wants to eat the gap. There is a trio of supports here. The Kijun, Tenkan, and the gap. Well, the gap isn't a support, but you get the idea, if it closes it, it could rebound, you see, at 213. Can it go for 213? Well, the shorts are there, and if it makes a kind of extremely ugly regular like everyone else, it can go for 213. But its structure is completely broken with that wick. But that's kind of the idea, if everyone does their little vaccine, well, it will go for 213. It won't be below its wick because it made a -50 wick. So I don't think it will crash on its own. It will just be a contracting one, while others are making regulars. It's not a big deal. So, heading for 213 as well. Solana is going for the same, its big C. Everyone is validating their little regular. Can it do it? Well yes, it can easily go for 213. There's a lot of liquidity here, you see, 214 is there, 213 is there. So to go for all of that up to the gap at 13, and then it will rebound to the top, simply. So, that's what I see for now with cryptos. It can change, but given the look of things, we feel that everyone wants to validate their little regular with the vaccine. So, to summarize, I'd say it's a small A, small B, small C, everyone goes below the wick, and then we rebound to the moon, or it's the big weekly C, and in that case, Bitcoin will go below 100,000. It will even go to 90,000, you see. Well, let's hope it's the small daily regular, you see, and not the, not the weekly structure. Regarding the traditional market, well, they are doing quite well, you see. Nvidia +1.42, Google +1.60, you see. Well, listen, for now, it's okay. The Euro Stoxx 600 too. There is still this rate cut and very strong probabilities for the end of the month. So, as the American government is still closed, this big nuclear joke, you see. Well, listen, there are no figures. Next week, theoretically, we should have, next Friday, the 14th, October 24th, sorry, inflation data. There. Well, well, will it fall? It looks like it will fall, you see, because otherwise they wouldn't display it. So next week, for this week, there are no macroeconomic data. Next week, there will be sales of houses, houses, houses already built, used houses, if you like. But the only major one we could have next week is inflation next Friday. And that can be a big bullish catalyst, a big bearish catalyst. So let's imagine both scenarios with inflation. So let's imagine, there, we are on a small regular flat, I'll do it for you like this if you want. There's the small daily regular flat, small A, small B, small C like this, which should rebound upwards, but instead of having this small C, it could be the big C of the weekly running. Okay? So we have the choice: Scenario 1, small daily C and rebound to all-time high, and Scenario 2, big weekly C heading for 90,000. What could trigger this? The, the inflation next week. That is to say, if next week we have inflation that rises, that is to say, general inflation goes above 3% to 2.9. Core inflation, inflation without volatile elements like food and energy, goes above 3%. So if all inflation rises, well, then you can say hello to the scenario of, it's rather the big weekly C. There. And if inflation falls at all levels, because you know that energy has fallen, we'll see if the rest has fallen too. If inflation falls at all levels, well, in that case, we can have Scenario 1 where we finish the small C until next week. You see, the correction lasts a little longer, about a week, and then boom, it rebounds as a bullish catalyst with inflation figures coming out lower than expected. Well, that's the idea. So, for now, well, we'll see. Now, the markets themselves, well, today and yesterday it's red, but it's red, it's staging. It's a false red. You see, for example, if you take the Nasdaq here, well, the Nasdaq yesterday, you say it closed in the red, but no, because it closed here, on Tuesday, and it opened, well, it closed, sorry, on Tuesday around 24,500 and it also closed on Wednesday around 24,700. So it's a false red candle because, in fact, why? It opened higher and then it corrected, but it finished higher than the previous day. So it's a false red, it's more like green, you see. Here it's the same, it's red because yesterday it closed here, it opened here this morning. So there were big purchases made and it's correcting. But since it closed there yesterday and is now here, well, it remains a green candle, you see. But since there are gaps, it's a bit poorly done, you see. Because the problem is that it's not 24/7. So we are used to 24/7 charts, there are no gaps like this. Well, so in short, it's green. That's it, to summarize, it's green. There. Well, and if you look at the Euro Stoxx 600, but look at Europe, well, it's green here, no problem, and European tech too, which is lower, it's also green, you see, it's all green. So, in fact, well, the stock market is green, and it's only cryptos that are still bleeding. One thing that doesn't stop is gold, the forest gump, he doesn't stop, he runs, he runs, he runs, he runs. Well, money follows him. Well, listen, explosion of these values this morning. I talk a lot about it in the news video about what's happening with gold and all that. Don't hesitate to watch. Regarding crypto stocks, well, unfortunately, they are following Bitcoin, with a big red cartridge for Bitcoin miners today, it's not good, and MicroStrategy, it's not good. MicroStrategy, which lost its 200-day moving average, tried to recover it once, it was August 22nd, it said no. It tried to recover it a second time, September 19th, it said no. It tried to recover it a third time, October 6th, it said no. No wonder Michel Saylor, yes. Robert, how many Bitcoins can we buy this week? 12. Oh really? Well, that's changed from the billions we were spending before. Well, it's tough. It's tough. Well, regarding the bond market, well, it's continuing. There. Rush to the bond market, rush to safe havens, rush to gold. Well, and with the dollar also falling for now. The dollar falling, normally that should put cryptos in the positive. A falling dollar means it's going elsewhere, you see. And so where is it going? Money is leaving the dollar, it's even leaving the Canadian dollar. It's leaving the dollar, it's going to the bond market, it's going to safe-haven assets, it's also going a bit to stocks, and where it's definitely not going, it's to cryptos, and that's it. Well, I think it's just that the crypto market is a bit shocked. It's on the defensive, it's normal. There was such an astronomical liquidation last Friday, and it's waiting for a more bullish catalyst. Jerome Powell's speech could have been a bullish catalyst. I find it bullish. He basically said, yes, okay, by the end of the month there will be a rate cut, we'll even stop reducing our balance sheet. Well, maybe they'll inject a little, recreate. It's rather positive, you see. But I think the markets are too afraid of what might happen between Trump and the Chinese president, because already Scott Besson, the US Treasury Secretary, you see, whom we often saw next to Trump, well, he attacked China a bit, you see, that was yesterday, so that doesn't create a good atmosphere. And this bad atmosphere is reflected more on the crypto market than on the stock market. Too bad. Friends, for this little update, I send you big kisses, be careful. See you soon. Bye bye.