Transcription
Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and it seems like we might just have a chance at a bit of relief here. Maybe even a little bit more if we're extremely lucky.
I got a couple of announcements first. For those of you that follow me on Twitter, I managed to get the Camel Finance handle. Okay, so I was finance camel for a while cuz this one was taken, but I managed to actually get hold of this new handle. So, if you see some changes, I just thought I'd let you know about that. And you'll notice some of the branding has got to be scratched out and redone, but we're working on that. That should be done this week.
As a quick reminder, okay, there is some big black swan discounts coming on Friday this week. So, look out for those.
I also thought this would be a good opportunity to have a look and see what updates are going on on the website. I know the primary thing that we're working on at the moment is getting this data dashboard put together. So, I'll show you that in a minute. I don't think there's any indicator updates yet. No, but approximately every two months we do release a batch of indicator updates. So, there should be some of those coming soon.
If I scroll down here to the data dashboard, we're in the process of getting hold of a bunch of data, aggregating it, putting it all in one place, right? And then we should be able to do the weekend's deep dives from here. That's the vision. So, instead of have to use four and a half gigs of RAM in the uh Chrome browser like we normally do on the weekend's deep dive, we're going to have these ordered in the right order with a next button hopefully, and then we can just click through them, scroll through them all in one place. And obviously, you'll be able to use this just like I use it. And again, we just continue to work towards making people better at trading and making life as a trader easier, right? I'm going to try to find every piece of useful data. Anything that I think is useful, we're going to put here in one place and hopefully make all of our lives a little bit easier. I know some people get stressed out about the number of tabs I have open sometimes. So hopefully this will fix this problem as well. We'll also try to find additional data as well because just because I don't think something is very useful doesn't mean you guys won't find some value out of it. So we're going to keep building this thing out. It's going pretty well so far.
And so without further ado, let's get into today's episode. Okay, so they released a bit of PPI data yesterday and here it is. You can pause your screen and take a look at this. Pretty much mixed, right? some slightly above estimate, some slightly below. Overall, I I find it a bit strange that they're okay with releasing this, but they weren't okay with the CPI data being released. So, that's kind of weird. We're still operating somewhat blind at the moment.
In case you missed yesterday's live stream, they've also just told us they're no longer going to release the Q3 GDP data, which is kind of weird, right? And I was talking about this on the live stream a lot, and I've been talking about this over and over again, frankly, right? I just think it's weird timing that we've gotten all the way to this point in the cycle where we should be starting to look for tops and start to think about heading for those four year cycle lows. Not just in Bitcoin, but in the stock market and gold's half cycle low in its 8year cycle. They're all kind of synced up together all at a time when the Dixie has probably just completed a left translated daily cycle as expected and as we were talking about and maybe is going to start this decline into its three-ear cycle low and invert before then we go to next year and all of that would kind of fit from a cycle perspective and it's just all occurring at a time where the data should just start to re reveal to the world that it is indeed recessionary and now all of a sudden we're not going to get it.
And in case you're in the camp of people that say, "Well, camel, come on. We're not really recessionary. It's nothing to worry about. Like, it's reaceleration. This is just getting started. We're early in the cycle." We've just seen it in the UK, right? We've literally just seen this 0.1% growth for the UK GDP. Okay? The UK is practically in recession. Okay? It only has just avoided it. And of course, we need two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth as per the regular recession. And that's assuming you don't use their recently changed definition where they stood that woman on stage in front of the world and went that is not the definition. We memed the absolute granny out of that for a long long time. But it's just the world we live in. Cliff edge territory is not exactly hyperbolic here. And I find it interesting that this is where we've gotten to in not just the UK but in other places around the world too. And the GDP data is now apparently not coming out. So that's something right especially because as well the prior readout looked pretty good, didn't it? 3% or 3 point something% but then as I've been shown on the weekend's deep dive excluding net exports we're actually negative -2%. So I wonder if this was going to be another negative print once you adjust for everything else under the surface and that's why they don't want to release it cuz it would confirm we're in a recession and then that would kind of stop or prevent or prematurely terminate the blowoff top moment that we are currently experiencing in the market. So, I do wonder if this is all just one big liquidity grab to the upside and then the whole thing will come tumbling down and finally the chickens will come home to roost.
To be completely honest, I don't know. But I do know we're long and strong and we're going to keep being that way until things break down. But I just think in hindsight, we're going to be able to look back and this is going to be probably the most obvious recession setup that we've ever seen in our lives. And again, I make the case that maybe I'm paranoid, but also maybe things aren't actually okay under the hood. Because if they were, wouldn't they just give us the data? I don't know, bro. I'll leave that up to you.
One thing I do know is the bond market has finally resolved itself. The yields have stopped backing up and started rolling over once again. We can sit here with camel's razor which is tell that to the bond market and we can say yep things are still going according to plan. We will certainly be cutting at least at this time based on the current bond market and the rates that the bond market in aggregate is setting. And so once again we can say yes we were expecting this to happen and it's happened and you know tell that to the bond market. That's all we really need. everyone that does all that macro and writes paragraphs and paragraphs on Twitter about what the Fed should do and the divisiveness in the meetings and blah blah blah blah the reality is shut up tell that to the bond market that's all we need right and so on to the next biggest question or I think possibly the biggest question in this space at the moment and that is are we staging a counter trend bounce to a lower high and a rollover something like this I watched Bob Lucas' video that he put out yesterday it's like 40 minutes long and essentially he just said he thinks this is the base case from here and he's going to let himself out at 100 and perhaps 110K, keep a little moon bag in case he's wrong. And he's done what he was supposed to do, which is get in at the 4-year cycle low, ride the trade until it became unreasonable to do so. He now thinks it's at the point where it's getting unreasonable. So, he's looking for that counter trend bounce to a lower high to roll over. And this is absolutely the case. It's been the case for a while. This is my red squiggle, which I'll show you in just a moment. And then there was my yellow squiggle idea, which is that we are yet to have seen the all-time high. and we're going to continue to push. This would extend the cycle beyond the month 35 top that we're used to seeing. We have seen one of the cycles print a month 37 top. So, if it tops January or something, it wouldn't be completely out of the ordinary. And I know sentiment is completely washed and most people don't really think that this is possible. I'm even in the category of people are starting to think this is less and less likely, but either way, we should be able to get something like this. I'm also seeing a lot of people concerned that this is crowded and everyone's looking for this. But I think it seems kind of weird to think that we're not going to get a bounce from here, right? I mean, nothing moves in straight lines. And if we don't at least get a lower high, right? Then what are you saying? That this is the path straight to zero by January. You know what I mean? Like 30% in a few weeks followed by 30% in a few weeks followed by 30% in in a few weeks is zero by Christmas. Now, I think that's a little bit too bearish, but by all means, go short 100x leverage. You do you, right? And I'll do me. So yeah, I don't know how likely either one of these is. I don't think anyone really knows. I'll probably give it 60/40. 40% chance of new highs, 60% chance of this lower high bounce. Let's just be clear. Like this. Okay, which translates to my red and yellow squiggle. And here, of course, is the famous yellow squiggle. Now, we did indeed go a little bit lower than I was expecting in terms of price, but that just means the yellow squiggle is either going to occur from here, okay, or it means we're doing the red squiggle again from slightly lower down. But ultimately, it should still be either a lower high bounce like the red squiggle or the new all-time high. And I probably give it, like I said, about 40% probability of yellow and 60% of the red. But we'll see, right? We'll see.
I want to go back to this tab actually because one thing I should mention here is although I'm saying 6040 and 60% in favor of the red, I am kind of thinking that I can't reconcile that with the stocks and gold potentially ripping to new highs, right? That to me doesn't make a lot of sense. You know, if I'm calling for the finale of this blowoff top in risk, wouldn't that mean Bitcoin has a pretty significant rally ahead of it? Or is it really that Wall Street will tame Bitcoin thing? Is that what we're seeing? Is this fully tamed? We're only going to get a counter trend bounce to a lower high and the stock market is going to blow off and rub it in every crypto guy's face, right? Is that what we're going to see? all against the backdrop of no alt season and everyone's dreams are destroyed and Wall Street get to kind of stand there with two middle fingers up above their head and say we got your Bitcoin right we captured it you're not getting any more gains you're not getting any alt season and you're going to watch the stocks and gold blow off after you've mocked it and jered at it and called it a boomer rock and a shiny rock and saying Bitcoin's going to demonetize gold right is this now the ultimate FU where they blow off gold and stocks and just let Bitcoin do this lackluster red squiggle I don't know obviously I have No idea. I'm just kind of speculating. It doesn't really matter what I think. Let's be honest. What matters is how we play the cycles from here. And so everything else is kind of narrative really. But we do know one of these two is coming. And we should have started that bounce from now.
Over in the stock market, things just keep getting more and more bullish, which is kind of weird, right? But this wig breath thrust used to be extraordinarily rare, right? I guess in the scheme of things, it is still pretty rare. I think we're about to potentially have the 17th one in history. And since I've had this channel, I think this is like the third one or maybe even the fourth one that I've covered. So, they've definitely been increasing in frequency of late, but the whole market, the whole uh traders and investors out there, they're extremely excited about this type of thing because historically, these have 100% hit rate. And whenever we do get a Zig Brett thrust, the markets do extraordinarily well for the foreseeable future after such a thrust. And now we haven't got one confirmed just yet, but we essentially need this red line here to do something like this by about December the what's Seth saying? December the 5th. Okay, so if we can get a push up here, then that will confirm we got the thrust and that should set us up for the banana zone, at least in the stocks.
And this is what I mean. It's like I can't really reconcile this. I absolutely can see this happening in the stock market. I can see the Dixie breaking down, okay? And as the Dixie breaks down, I can see this causing a risk-on moment. Okay, the cycles support that completely. Gold and silver could really go either way, but at the moment they look like they're getting ready to push higher. And we're almost starting to see the leadership here with breakouts in the mining ETFs, right? And the same deal for the CJ just starting to show hints at breakouts here. Okay, with silver again starting to push a little bit more than gold. So the Dixie is going to roll over and we know the yields are going to roll over because tell that to the bond market, right? They're already starting to do that again. That's what the squiggle was for. So if all of this is going on and all of this makes sense, okay, and then at the same time we go into the stock market and this thing is looking to confirm early cycle lows and start to bounce. Okay, at the same time as sentiment has been really really soured. At the same time as we're about to get one of the rarest and most bullish and most accurate stock market bull signals that I am aware of. I think this is the single most bullish and most consistent bull signal that I I actually do know of. And all of this is happening with things like the Russell 2K breaking out now, getting ready to push to new highs so we can re-encumber the lowest lows. And yet somehow Bitcoin is fully done. It's fully over for Bitcoin, right? Straight line to zero. It doesn't really make sense to me. So I'm kind of thinking we got to have a snapback here in the least in the worst case scenario. But maybe, just maybe, this is going to do the unthinkable and print new highs. I really don't know. But it does seem a bit weird to me that the setup apart from Bitcoin outside of Bitcoin, the setup is extraordinarily bullish, as are the crypto stocks. But for some reason, Bitcoin has seemingly topped and is leading to the downside. So, I don't know. Maybe that's what it is. Maybe it's just topped a few months ahead of the stock market and the stock market will top in January and roll over and everything will die and then whatever, right? I I really don't know as I keep saying, but we'll keep taking it one day at a time, okay? We'll see what the market can give.
For now, it's pub day, right? So, I'm going to go to the beach, walk the dog, take the wife and the baby, get some sea air in the lungs, have that pie of the day. Okay, which is now the highlight of my week. My wife's behind me laughing. Maybe you should step your wife game up a bit. Yeah. Then I'll be back to have a look at the market open, make a midweek members update video, and perhaps add some more trades. Okay, we started adding a bit of exposure yesterday and I think we're going to keep doing that. Okay, so one day at a time as always. I'm your boy Camel. I hope you have a fantastic rest of the week. Take care from me. All the best. Cheers. Bye. No shame sticking to his guns in this money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. on a bumpy ride. Casting those emot