Transcription
It was a flat trading session today ahead of the FOMC and VIX expiration tomorrow. We hovered just above the big 6600 strike pretty much throughout the trading session. You can see this is one of our largest gamma exposure concentrations and has been for the past couple of weeks. Our second largest GEX concentration is at the 6500 strike. And we've been mentioning over the last couple of videos the potential for a market pullback into that 6500 strike since those are our two largest levels. If we get any kind of volatility spike from VIX expiration or from the Fed tomorrow, we could see that 6500 level hit.
However, switching over to our net gamma exposure data graph, this gives us a clearer picture of the GEX data on a net absolute basis. And you can see just how skewed the gamma exposure data is all the way up to the 7,000 strike. And this is why we have these two different views on gamma exposure. So you can get really granular with intraday moves like how we're looking at a move potentially down to the 6500 level. And you can also get a sense for where the options market is positioning for larger moves. In this instance, we're seeing positioning all the way up to the 7,000 strike. And of course that includes positioning into year end and into 2026. So overall we remain in a buy the dip environment and the overall trend since the beginning of September uh has remained strong and up and to the right.
Anthony, you know, as we approach FOMC tomorrow and also VIX expiration in the morning before the market opens uh, which we'll discuss in just a little bit. I wanted to look at QQQ which showed some interesting changes today and there's inherently a lot of uncertainty around FOMC but we can at least look at some levels that might end up mattering tomorrow. The first thing that caught my attention today was QQQ's sharp drop in positive GEX from just over 695 million to almost zero. You know, basically 32.7 million. Uh, that's pretty close to the zero line. And it's also the lowest that we've seen on uh QQQX since this September 3 reading.
Now, I did want to take a look at the daily chart which shows that QQQ has been on a bullish ascent. Uh, this this 600 g cluster does appear to be a very valid target and it does line up nicely with the uh upper Kelner channel. Uh, it's also the current upper dealer cluster zone. So that's an area where we would expect uh greater possibility for some sort of reversal or consolidation. The whole moving average is rising uh very sharply currently at 58711. Um, you know, this is a a good momentum line in the sand. You know, if we see QQQ lose 587, you know, it may open up some of these lower GEX clusters. You know, interestingly, this 575 GEX really catches my attention with the larger negative GEX uh visible at that level. So, in the event of a pullback, this would just be, you know, a nice reset of this big bullish move that we saw and possibly set the stage for a more sustainable rally. So, we'll keep an eye on that as we enter tomorrow. Thanks, Sean.
Next, let's take a look at Apple. Apple has been one of the market laggers for most of the year, but is attempting to make a comeback. We see the 50-day EMA starting to curl up here. The 50-day EMA is this red line on our chart, currently sitting at 22436. Apple broke out above its 215 resistance back at the beginning of August and has recently entered a second consolidation period. We see gamma exposure is skewed to the upside. The largest GEX is currently at the 240 strike and that was by far the largest volume that we saw today, but we're starting to see gamma exposure grow at higher strikes as well. And if we just zoom into our chart and take a look at the 15-minute candlestick, we can see this actually is a potential breakout point if we can get above the 240 level and close above it. I think tomorrow could be a potentially pivotable day for a number of stocks, including Apple. So, if we do see a continuation move through that 240 level, then I think it's possible that we could see 250 next. So, this is one that's going to be on our watch list for a potential breakout uh above 240 and potentially hitting the 250 target and beyond.
All right, we mentioned we would go over the VIX with the VIX monthly options expiring tomorrow pre-market around 9:00 a.m. Eastern time. And we have our 3D graph pulled up uh which you can rotate and look at, you know, from whatever angle you want to to see the GEX clusters and where most of those are concentrated. So uh, you know, we have 16 as a very large gex cluster expiring tomorrow morning. Uh, makes a lot of sense that we close just above that. You know, making sure all those puts expire worthless. Uh, there's also a lot of representation with negative gex at the 15, 12 strike.
If we get back to looking ahead for the VIX and I have the daily chart pulled up here. You can see there was some volume up here at 55. Uh, fairly considerable over 127,000 contracts traded. We also had a lot of contracts traded at 25. So technically in my book, you know, given that we closed yet again above the whole moving average and we actually brought attention to this in yesterday's newsletter and we saw some follow through today. We closed above the whole for the first time in in quite a number of days. We saw follow through today with the VIX rising even more. Uh, so the setup is still there for this to continue higher. But let's switch to the weekly chart because another key resistance level was conquered today with the VIX overcoming the weekly 9 period SMA at 1578. Uh, this is an accomplishment that we haven't seen for quite a number of weeks now given that tomorrow is only halfway through the week. So this still has a chance to spike and then close below it. But I think it's at least a little bit of a red flag that we have some current momentum during the week that has taken us above that line. So we need to watch what the VIX does around this 1580 area. So we do want to be aware of what can happen within this range and how important it is in terms of dictating what happens with the VIX next. If we close above this 1578 area or if we close below that. Thanks Sean.
Next let's take a look at Meta. Meta making a decent move today up 1.87% closing at 779 on the dot. During the month of August, we saw Meta come down into its 50-day EMA, and that's where we entered a long position. We'll go over that here in a second. But the gamma exposure picture has actually shifted quite dramatically over the last few trading sessions, really focusing on this 800 strike. The 800 gamma exposure concentration has been the second largest GEX level for quite a while. The 750 was the largest and that has now shifted. Everything is basically shifted up, meaning that market participants are completely focused on this 800 strike. And you can just see that with the options volume today. Over 60,000 contracts traded at that 800 strike, dwarfing the rest of the volume across the options chain. And if we just zoom in and take a look at the 15-minute chart, you can get even more of a clear picture. After a period of consolidation during the month of August, we're starting to see price turn up and as I mentioned, heading towards that big 800 strike, which is our upper dealer cluster zone. So, there's a potential that this could get hit by Friday. Of course, market momentum is going to play a factor in that. But I definitely think 800, whether it's this week or whether it's in the coming two to three weeks, I definitely think 800 is a potential near-term target.
And as I mentioned, we did take a position in Meta just recently on September 4th. We entered the September 19th 755 750 put credit spread at $260. We went a little conservative on this play uh, but it's already paying off pretty nicely for our small 10k portfolio. And you can just see the setup at the time Meta was trading at 746 and had just started bouncing off that 50-day EMA. As I mentioned, the 750 strike was the largest gam exposure at the time, but that 800 uh was growing very quickly. And so now we've seen, you know, the complete shift over with the 800 strike now taking the lead. Thanks, Anthony.
My last one today is Microsoft, which I do think has potential if we see the NASDAQ approach 600. This may be one of the stocks that could lead us uh toward that destination as a big component within the index. Uh, it's interesting, you know, I've got the weekly chart pulled up and you can see we we started the week with a almost perfect uh rejection from the weekly whole moving average at 519 and we also closed below the uh 9 period SMA, but a lot of the volume we've seen has actually been at higher strikes. Uh, and this is daily volume even though we have the weekly candles pulled up. So today's volume was mostly at higher strikes which I find interesting. Let's zoom into the daily chart though on Microsoft. You can see with today being a down day, we didn't quite tag that 520 GEX cluster and uh today's closing price was just over 509. Now the whole moving average is rising. It's currently just below 504. Uh, you know, probably by tomorrow it'll be between 504 and 505. So we're getting to an area where there's both GEX and some technical signals that should mark area of support. And so, uh, whenever we see this happen, you know, it may be an interesting long opportunity with the idea that some of these higher GEX clusters between 520 and even 530, you know, might end up being tagged. So, uh, the daily chart does still look uh, constructive to me despite the pullback. Keep an eye on that 505 to 510 area, basically right where we closed, uh, you know, for possible support for a move higher.
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