Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you guys had a wonderful weekend. And this week, we have a bit of volatility. As you guys know, we usually start with looking at the economic calendar, which is where we get, you know, that's the base for analysis, really, right? So this week, we have CPI. This is week is CPI week, which CPI week is usually the second full week of the month, if you don't already know that, right? Such a coincidence, you know, just falls in line with QT. But yeah, this week we have CPI.
Monday, I, I, I think that I, okay, tomorrow I will try my best to be here at 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, right? Because tomorrow, I don't want anyone really doing anything, even though most of you will, you know. You know, if you can, just try not to, you know, the day before CPI is usually choppy. And if it's not choppy, you know, it can, it can expand sometimes. But whenever that happens, we usually have low probability conditions. So we'll have price expanding with no pullbacks or anything like that, or price pulling back and disrespecting PD array and then rallying afterwards, or, you know, vice versa. So currently, today, no trading. Tomorrow, no trading. You know, straight, straight and forward. Tomorrow, we have nothing, right? Nothing, just a blank canvas, right, right here. And we can trade after CPI is released. Right after CPI is released, we can use that to trade that data, that move. We can see if it runs liquidity. If it does, then we will trade in the opposite direction. If it fills, you know, higher time frame, higher time frame fair value gap, imbalance price range, you know, anything that forms on Monday, we'll be using that, right? We, if Monday forms a range, then we'll be looking for price to either run above it, run below it, or return to the 50% of the range that Monday forms, right? So we have 8:30, which I'll say could, this could be forming the lower or the high of the week, right?
Tuesday. So Tuesday, I will expect most of the volatility. Wednesday, we don't really have anything to trade with. So we will probably be looking for something to do at like 9 to 10:30, right? Which is perfect because CPI is released at 8:30. After 30 minutes after the news event, you know, has been released, then, you know, the juice will probably be cooled down by then. So the, the liquidity run that will be engineered with this specific news event will slow down or, you know, start to form a range on the lower time frame, like the one-minute time frame or lower time frames.
On Thursday, we have news also. So this is tradable. Whenever we have news events at like 8:30 a.m., then we usually, you know, just let it be and trade at 9:00. That's the best thing to do because why? The best trades will form between 9 and 10:30 in the morning, which is Eastern Standard Time, during the New York session, right? That is Q3 of Q3. Remember, you know, that is the best time that we can trade. You know, if you just trade during that time, if you're new, just focus on that time, right? And if you can, just focus on the afternoon session, and we'll get to those times later. So, and again, we have news at 8:30. We have news at 8:30 again, Friday. So these, this week, we have three tradable days, right? Remember, we always use high impact news events, the US dollar, more, more particularly, right? So we have news on Tuesday, we have news on Thursday, and we have news on Friday. What can we expect on Fridays? We can expect price to just return back into the range that it makes or return back into, you know, the expansion leg that it makes to during the week. So this week, Tuesday is where we will expect a lot of volatility. We'll get volatility on Thursday and Friday as well. More in particular, both of these setups, I'm expecting two out of three of them to form during 9 to 10:30 in the morning. So two out of three of these setups, right here. So right now, already, you, you, you have something to look for at a specific time. So Tuesday, Thursday, Friday. Before going through this week, you know, just make sure you have your, your plan for risk management. How you're going to manage your trades, you know, if you're trading the S&P 500 or NQ or whatever it is, like if you're trading EU, GU, how much points you're going to use as your stop, right? Which time frames do you use? Which time frame you don't want to just be going into the market and just using random time frames, right? If you use the one-minute time frame, then you use the one-minute time frame. If you use the five-minute time frame, then you just use the five-minute time frames, right? And yes, as Al G says, red folder news are entries. Well, not, they are entries. They are entries, but like they are delayed high probability entries, which they probably delay around 15 to 30 minutes, right? And then even after an hour afterwards, then, you know, it's like you have that sweet spot where price usually reacts.
So now we'll look at the DXY, as we usually do when we stop, when we usually begin our analysis, right? So we had price draw to our main draw for DXY already right here, but then after, after it pulled towards it, it just started to consolidate. What I really wanted to see, actually, right? The market just isn't showing anything clean right now. So we had price break below, close below these closes, which in itself is a type of turtle soup, right? And then push above this high. We expected price a draw to this liquidity pool that's above here, and then we also expected price to return to the range. Price didn't break below this low, and we didn't get SMT with EU or GU. So right now, price is low probability. We have low resistance liquidity right here. We have equal lows below these lows right here. I like, like doing the analysis as we go, right? So you can see me doing it for like anyone that's like new, you can, you can see which tool I reach to, you can see, you know, how I draw the line or whatever it is, you know, it's, it's, you learn better by seeing me doing it than me just posting the charts, right? This is better. So right here, we have, we have buy side above this high right here, buy side liquidity, buy side liquidity, buy side liquidity. And we have sell side liquidity below this low right here. This is a daily fair value gap, right? If I go back on the higher time frame, you can see this is a daily fair value gap. So if price falls below here, I'm expecting it to probably dig into this wick as well, right? Whenever, remember that wicks are gaps, so whenever you have long wicks like this, then we usually get price trade into the wick after breaking below this fair value gap. So we have, this is the range that we're in right now in regards to the US dollar. So right now, we would either want to see price break above this high or this low, or below this low. But by the looks of it, we'll probably get price broken below this low first, right? Also, right here, we have a new week opening gap, right? This is the reason why we have price just, just, you know, being stagnant, doing nothing. Price goes up into here, reacts to this AB, comes back down, and it's just been reacting from this new week opening gap, which is right here. So if we have price break below, then it could trade into this one and then rally, right? So if price breaks below here, you know, on CPI, then we can see price probably rally afterwards, which would bring down the stock market, you know, probably crypto or whatever, right? So, and if this goes lower, then we could expect EU, GU to rally higher. We could expect ES, NQ to down to also rally higher, right? And I think that right now, price is just running for stops, right? Even right now, I think like it's just overbought. It doesn't make any sense for those asset classes to be this high. And someone asks if they could see my settings for this. So yeah, I'll just, you can pause this after I record it, right? I, yeah, I usually use 15, and this is settings that I usually use. To be honest, I don't like that color, so I just changed it. So that's it. You can pause it afterwards if you want to.
So we have buy side liquidity here, right? Low resistance, buy, sell liquidity, these highs in close proximity, right? We have sell, sell liquidity here. So we need price to either break above here or break below here before we consider anything. So we'll see what happens either tomorrow or Tuesday, right? For EU, we have sell side right here below this low, sell side, sell side, sell side. So actually, we could see price run and into this liquidity void right here. This isn't a fair value. This is a liquidity void right here. This right now is a balanced price range, right? This is the opening of the balanced price range. So we could see price run above and then collapse. It doesn't even need to go into here, but like, I think this is probably the next draw of liquidity, right? But ultimately, I want to see price take out these lows, these relatively equal lows right here and right here. You know, you can see that we have like trend line liquidity or low resistance sell side liquidity right here, right? Fair value gaps are usually tight, like here, right? Liquidity voids are over, overextended, right? Fair gaps are usually, you know, like this. This is a fair value gap. This too. This is a liquidity void. You see how overextended it is? And this is a balanced price range. This is actually two liquidity voids like overlapping, but that still makes a balanced price range. So right now, we need to see some displacement in price for for us to like consider anything. There are times when like I would say I would give you a specific level and be like, expect price to go here, then we buy below here or we buy above here. But right now, we want to see price, you know, get to either, either here or below here and show us some market structure, something to work with. Right here, we don't really have anything to work with. This is just like sideways consolidation right now, which is usually the purpose of week one of the month, right? That was week one. Right now, this is the true week open, right here. Well, no, this is the true month open, right here. My bad. So the true month open is the opening price of today, wherever the market opened, right? So if price is, if price goes above it, then goes above the true week open, which is Monday, 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, and goes above that during CPI, then we could expect bearishness, and the opposite, vice versa, if price goes below it.
GU, we have this balanced price range here, as you can see. This is a balanced price range. Wherever you see a fair value gap cut through another one, that's a balanced price range. So we have relatively equal highs right here, and we have right here, you can see that we have low resistance liquidity, right? So we want to see, firstly, just pay attention to what price does on Monday. Remember, we don't want to trade Monday. Low probability. I don't think anything good will come off Monday, and if it does, I don't care, right? And again, this is a liquidity void right here. This is not a fair value. Right. This right here. This is a fair value gap, right? What's the difference? Like, you can just like use your eyes to like tell the difference, right? Because a fair value gap is not overextended like this. It's usually small. Can you, can you see how this, how this is small and, you know, easy to like determine? You know, if you, if you see this, you should know that it's a fair value gap. With this, you'd probably be guessing. You know, this is a fair value gap right here. You see how, see it holds price better when it's small, right? This now is not a fair value. This is a liquidity void. But due to the fact that we have another gap cutting through this one, that makes it a balanced price range. So this could be, this can serve as a draw on liquidity. Obvious, this is our next draw of liquidities, right? And we have a fair value gap here above these highs. So we have a draw of liquidity here, here, and we have a draw of liquidity below this low. So first, we need to see what CPI does, and then 9:00, we can go in on Tuesday. I'll see what Monday does tomorrow, and I'll try to be here tomorrow at 6 PM again, right? Due to the fact that we don't really have much to work on right now, right? And this in itself is, you know, a skill that you must learn: when to participate and when not to participate in the marketplace, right? Whenever the markets get like, you know, really easier to read, whenever the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and so on, you know, shifts, you know, whenever the seasonal tendency kicks in, the quarter to the shift kicks in, then I will be probably be trading, you know, doing a few live trades whenever I know that it's really high probability. Ever since the year started, I've probably just be playing with like my $10,000 counter. So I've not really touched big, big funds, my big funds yet, as yet. But obviously plan to. But I usually don't unless I see a seasonal tendency kicked in. Even right now, I think, you know, all of this is, if you're trading here, it's just gambling, man, just gambling.
So I remember we were, where were we? I believe here, or we were here, and I wanted to see price break below this low, but we didn't get that, and then we had price just rally afterwards, taking out anyone that was short here, and, and again, taking out anyone that was short here. So we had price clear this high and then clear this high afterwards, right? And we have CPI right after all of this happened. So I want to see what happens during CPI. Is it going to like run above this one to create like a gap downwards, you know, shift market structure, or anything like that, before I try to do anything else, right? Currently, nothing to really do. Like going in the market to trade right now, nothing really. Remember here, there was something to do. You could trade here. Even here, you could like buy in here, and when price expanded, you could like come out, right? You know, I'll take a loss right here, which is fine. Take a, you lose sometimes, that's okay. But currently, right now, nothing to really do. You just got to be patient, wait for, you know, CPI to show us what it wants to do with the market. And this is the NASDAQ. So, and just something to bring up, if you guys remember when this SMT formed, right? This kicked price into a buy program right here, which when we, when I was here, I was, I wanted to see price break below this low. We didn't get that. We just had price run above this high afterwards, right? So right here, I was wrong, right? So we were right here, right? Again, around here, right here, and then we were finally wrong here, which is fine. We're, we're at all-time highs, you know, very low probability conditions, right? Currently, I believe that, you know, we're overextended. But, you know, price could do anything, right? We could have price go sideways and then run the highs and drop, or we could have price drop, then rally, then drop again, right? But right now, totally low probability conditions, very low probability conditions right now. I have nothing, you know, that would like relate to accuracy right now that I could give you in regards to the ES, NQ, nothing at all, which is why I have to be back with you during the course of the week, even if it's for like 10 minutes on Monday or 10 minutes on Tuesday, also, right? Because right now, there really isn't anything to do. Like the previous weeks were much more easier to read, right? We need to see what CPI gives us, right? And after that, you know, we can use that displacement and see where the entirety of the week afterwards will go.
So in Dow Jones, right now, you can see that we have price trended, that started to trend lower, making the high the week on Friday last week, while this was trending higher at the same time, and this was trending higher as well. So right here, I use this template to show you guys. So whenever you see this, remember this is low probability. We had the Dow going lower, and then we had NQ going higher, and we had the S&P 500 going higher at the same time. So this equates to low probability perception, right? So right now, we need to wait until we see price either consolidating like this, or we need to wait and see if CPI breaks up and then displaces lower. If that happens, then we can use that to find something to do. But at the moment, there really isn't much to do, which is why I have to return to you guys during the course of this week.
And Bitcoin. So currently, right now, yeah, we were wrong on Bitcoin as well. I want to see Bitcoin at least draw below this low before going for this high again, but we're there anyway. So we'll see what CPI does. If CPI, if CPI allows price to run above this high, dig into it, close above it, and then break down. All right, so this is what we'll be looking for. We have this inverse fair value gap right here on the monthly. We have this fair value gap. And this is the daily time frame, right? So if you didn't like buy below this low, or if you didn't, you know, buy lower, then buying here is not a good idea, right? So if you wanted to be a part of this, which there was, there was an opportunity right here when price traded into this value gap right here, then you shouldn't be trying to buy anything at these levels because if price goes above this, then reverses, then you'll get liquidated or you'll hit your stop loss. So yeah, that's it for this week. Well, not for this week, that's it for today. I'll be with you guys throughout the course of this week, and I will be letting you guys know about the new group, right? For sure, we got to hurry up and make that switch before Wednesday. And I'll talk to you guys tomorrow. Have a wonderful day.