Transcription
Hello again everyone. I hope that you had a wonderful training week thus far, right? In my opinion, you know, as I've stated previously, before the actual trading week, you know, began, and what I mean by actual trading week is Tuesday, the first day of the week, which has high impact USD news events, right? Which was, you know, the low and a week for, you know, the respective assets.
So, you know, we already went through this, right? Now, everything that's on the screen, right? And if you guys remember, right, yesterday, not yesterday, the day before yesterday, I told you guys to pay attention to the true weak open, right? I remember saying that, and, you know, it served as a, you know, wonderful tool for us to gauge the direction of the week, you know, which price did actually this week. It did exactly what we wanted to see it do, right? And remember that the main focus that we had was on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, right? So, as you guys probably realize, right? So, even if I have, you know, two to three setups, two to three ideas. If I expect two to three things to happen per week, I'm going to give you guys the one that I, you know, expect to happen the most, right? So, the highest probability, that's what you guys will get.
So, here you can see that, and this is no coincidence, right? Here on Tuesday, which is the day before Wednesday, which, you know, has the most news events on that day for the entire week, right? So, Monday has the most liquidity, right? The days with the most liquidity do not usually incite manipulation, right? Usually incites what? Distribution, right? That's the most liquidity that's coming into the market at one time. So, it's just, you know, common sense to expect it to distribute, right? And the fact that that day distributes, the day before that should do what? That's right. Manipulate Thursday, right? Which is tomorrow, right? We could expect some form of manipulation like what happened on Tuesday, and then distribution on Friday. Pretty simple, pretty easy to understand why Thursday has less news events than Friday. Okay.
So, here, right, on the chart right now, you can see the FX trade, right? So, we were either, you know, looking for a price. So, if price broke above here, it will just continue, right? But, you know, if it did not, right, you know, more specifically, if it did not before a major news event is released, then, you know, we would expect it to gravitate to this low, which it did, right? So, most of the information, which we will discuss today, will will be pertaining to the, you know, index futures, which is why you see me have three tabs open here.
So, looking at the euro, not much to look at right now in terms of intraday price action. Same for the British pound, right? You can see that since, you know, Monday, we just, we have just been within this small range, right? Same thing here. But it has been worse for the Great British pound, which, you know, means that the Great British pound and the S&P 500, not well, S&P 500 as well, but more particularly here, the British pound and the euro is, you know, prone for expansion, right? If you guys realize, and this is, you know, something that we discussed that, you know, we would just touch on a bit, right? Pi, what is pi? How do you, you know, convert pi into time? How do you do that, right? So, just to give you something to think about, right? Now, here you can see that we have price within in Monday's range for the British pound, right? This would be within the pi range. And the prior range has to do with a, you know, range of candles, not like a normal range, but, you know, in terms of time. So, of course, you know, that, you know, you know, the [laughter] so, you know, that the, you know, the formula, you know, everyone knows what pi is, 3.14. So, going back approximately 3.14, right, candles, right? You can see that this right here, this candle right here is, what? First of all, we have, you know, a cracking correlation, whereas we have this candle trading below this one, you know, within the high range here. We have this candle, you know, failing to trade below this one, right? Then here, what else? What else is here? Within this candle, that's a precision candle, right? Here, a position swing point, right? Within this range. And remember that we talked about bringing, you know, talking about this. So, it's not like, you know, there was hindsight, whereas like just looking, we talked about it, and then it just, you know, happened. But, and this was due to the fact that, you know, on Monday, we had this particular closure right here, this candle right here, right? On the opening of this candle, right? There's a gap. Here, there's another gap, right? Which usually incites, you know, close range price action, which is price action that will remain close, close to this particular candle's open, right? But sway away from this one due to the fact that it has a gap, right? So, we will, you know, that's just something for you guys to think about for now, right? To show you where we're headed.
Anyways, here, right, you can see that we had sequential SMT today, right? Whereas we had price trade below this low, which is the previous week's low, right? And then it just expanded, and then it came back down, right? This is just due to the fact that, you know, we're not within symmetrical price action. But yes, you know, you can still, you know, this is still tradable. It's just that it's not, you know, something that you need to hold. Right? Here, you can see that we failed to break above this high, right? We just went to this fair value gap, and then we stopped. So, usually the case is that here, you see this fair value gap right here, right? Once we break below this low, which caused sequential SMT, price returns, right? Where will it return back to this fair value gap? Where can we see this fair value gap here? Like, if we, if we should, you know, [snorts] look for the same thing here, at the same time here, where would it be? It would be here. So, we broke below this low, return within the range. So, once we broke below this low, right, and we are way extended over this fair value gap right here, which we consider as an inverse fair value gap right here, right? We're going to look for this one, which will be the base for this sequential SMT, right? This right here, due to the fact that price absorbed the liquidity, which is internal liquidity within within this gap, it's going to expand, you know, aggressively, more aggressively than this one right here. As you can see that price didn't take out this low on this leg of, you know, re retracement, but it did take this low out. And here, right, looking at the index futures tried. So, this is where we were spot on, right? Literally from top to bottom, mostly the, you know, the expansion that's, you know, what we got correct.
So, here, first of all, of course, we were expecting some expansion, some retracement within the range, which, you know, first was dealing that here, right? We had this swing high right here, broken here. It wasn't broken, but here it was, it wasn't, that was my bad. So, here it wasn't broken, here it was not broken, and here again, you can see that it was broken, which is, in fact, a crack in correlation, right? So, that right there was the first, right? Before price even ped this low, before we had sequential SMT below these lows, right? This was the first thing that gave us the idea. So, we expected either, right, price to either break above this high, then fall, then, you know, pump above, taking the liquidity above this high, or we expect the price to fall and form a cracking correlation, which should be, I, which should be at least two stages, right? So, it must be two stages. It, you know, not just one. If there's not a sequential SMT followed by a precision swing point, it should be something else. It should be either an SMT fill, or, you know, the thing that you will be introduced to right now, or, you know, expanded on, cuz, you know, we talked about something similar to this already.
So, this was the previous week's low, right? You can see that here, right? This week did not go below this one. Here, we did trade below this one. So, what makes this important already, even though we haven't, you know, looked at the next slide, is the fact that this sweep of liquidity right here, we have this sweep of liquidity here above this low, then we have this sweep of liquidity where below this low. So, yes, we had sequential SMT here again, just in case you did not get that. So, all of this right here, this change in the sale of delivery, whereas we have price trade below this low, it was above this low here. It was below this low, which incited, you know, expansion. And when did it happen? Here on Tuesday, right? So, here below the true open, I don't have to, you know, draw the true open out in time for you to know that it is a true week open, right? You just know that it is, cuz you've been here, right? And here is when things get a little bit more interesting. So, here, right, we already talked about, you know, here already, right? This liquidity and this one here.
Looking at the one-hour time frame, right? You can see that we had sequential SMT, right? And this is the exact, right, the same levels that we drew, right? We drew these levels here. And, you know, we expected this to happen, right? We expected price to drop, and we expected it to rally, and we expected that rally to be caused by what? A cracking correlation, which is what happened here, as usual. So, here, first thing first, right? Before we dropped here, right? You can see that price traded above this high here, trade above this high, filled this gap, right? Traded, and filling a gap means that you have price trading at least 2% of the range of the gap, right? So, we filled this gap, dropped. Did we fill this one? No, but we failed to do so. We failed to do so, right? So, this gap right here was not returned to, you know, filled until this candle, right? This candle right here. So, again, price traded here, dropped, took out this low, sequential SMT happened here. And all of this right here, you see one, two, three, it must occur within a quarter. It does not have a specific quarter that it must be aligned to, right? Or we're not ready to talk about that yet. It does not need to be aligned with a specific quarter, right? And nothing is random. So, you won't see this unless it's the time for it to happen, until the time is perfect, right? So, one, two, three, a low. This high right here fills this gap. This one does not fill this gap. That's a perfect correlation. But it's not, you know, something that, well, you can look to short something like this if you go to lower time frame, but it's better to use this, you know, to expect another correlation, which, you know, is the SMT market structure shift.
So, here, price dropped, looking at the S&P 500, took this low out, expanded on the closure of the candle. What happened? Price closed above this low here. What happened? It closed above this low. Okay, that's a correlation there. Is it sequential? No. But it happened after this, whereas we have price fill this gap right here, right? Which is the same gap here, right? So, these run on the same price engine, right? The only time that they're out of line is when reversal should and will occur. That's all that happens. Right? Here we have, well, let's start right here. Here we have price trading above this gap, then closed, right? So, this free P gap closed above this one, that is a change in the state of delivery. So, this is the same thing as if, you know, what you would expect to happen if price just drops and fill a fair value gap, right? This is the same thing, right? So, you wouldn't expect price to go below this low right here, which is the low which caused this, you know, or the lower, the candle which causes correlation, right? So, here, what happened? Correlation. Price closed, expanded higher, SMT market structure shift. And pay attention to this. The S&P market structure shift, what happens? It's the one that fills the gap, which insides higher prices afterwards. Here, what happened? This gap formed within this one, right? While this one formed outside of this one. So, the only time when you would consider this as, you know, what you previously knew as a balanced price range is when you have this one, you know, closing within this one, and then you have this one as well closing within this one. Now, it's not a balanced price range, which is why you don't have, you didn't have price return to it, right? Price just continued to expand. Anyone that placed their limit order here, they're pissed, right? Then afterwards, you have the SMT market shift here. Price failed to break above this high here. It broke above this high, pierced this fair by the gap, which was already pierced here. Then it just continued to expand. Also, what happened? What else is here? This closure is above this one. This one is below this one. What is that hidden SMT market structure shift before the actual SMT market structure shift, which was in fact sequential. So, this high was formed when Q4 of the previous day. This one was formed during Asian session of Tuesday.
So, what I need you guys to do is, you know, study these things and pay attention to the first things that I said in the first few minutes, right? You know, we've gotten to a point where I've seen that, you know, we have a lot of hours of videos, right? So, you know, people are complaining, some people are actually complaining that, you know, it's, you know, I have, you know, to be watching too much things, which, you know, I never thought that I'd be at, you know, this level, whereas I'm giving too much information. But it's a lot of information. You have a lot of you guys that sent me your um certificates that you passed this or that, your trading history, this or that, and it's very good seeing some of you guys like, it's actually insane. The chat itself is worth a lot, right? You have you guys just, you know, communicating with one another, sharing ideas, and then it's like I see you guys just sharing setups, and then the next morning pans out, day after day after day after day, and, you know, that's just actually insane, right? To have, you know, such skilled individuals within, you know, one community. So, yeah, we will continue this. See if we can get everyone better. See if, you know, we can, you know, improve in anything that we lack. And I hope that you found this useful, and we will be back Sunday. There's a lot of things to digest. Try to not stretch too much. It's the last day of the month, right? It's NFP week. It's Wednesday, right? You We shouldn't be stressing too much. Here, we had the thing that we were looking for pans out, right? That's good. You caught it. Good. You didn't. It's fine. Patience. It won't kill you. It will, in fact, make you a, you know, better analyst slash trader. And I hope that you have again, I hope that you have a, you know, wonderful week. Hope that you don't overtrade for those that are going to, but you'll be back better next week. With that being said, good luck and good trading.