Transcription
What's going on, guys? It's Killer. Welcome back to the channel.
Now, it has been a week since my last upload. And in my previous video, I explained why I am short again. And I was short at around the 74.8K region, approximately around the previous high here. And we are currently testing that 79K region. So, I'm going to be updating my position. I'm going to be updating what I expect to happen. And obviously, the chances of being invalid. Does that change my thesis and so forth?
However, before we get started, I just want to clarify all of my predictions over the past year, which happened to be correct, were based on historical price action. No skeptical beliefs of a super cycle or this cycle is going to be different. I was specifically looking at historical data to predict what is most likely to happen based on the patterns we have seen in the past. So the reason why I am short and the reason why I still believe that the bottom is not in is purely based on historical data and not based on the belief just based off current price action. So I will not be deviating from history. I rather bet on the right side of history as I have for the past year. And in doing so, I was able to pretty much map out the tops and the bottoms precisely whilst capturing this 50% drop towards the downside.
I am still short. Yes, it's coming close to my invalidation, but that doesn't mean the bare thesis is invalidated, right? It typically means my entry was slightly sooner and I'll be looking for other entries if we happen to test some key areas. But this chart which I'm showing now is mapping out economical pivots and since June 2025 we have seen a negative reaction every single time after this economical pivot date and we can see most of the times which we have a negative reaction around we are seeing somewhat of a bullish narrative into them. In this case we saw a push upwards, a push down, but we saw the push downwards after that pivot. We saw a bullish narrative into this consolidation and then a push downwards. We saw a bullish narrative, a push downwards. In this case, we had a push downwards. Structural integrity was lost and we pushed downwards. So most of the time after these economical pivots, we are seeing a negative reaction. And we can see that this has been happening since June 2025. So when is our next economical pivot? Well, it is 29th of April. And we can see here we are very close to this area. We can see we are forming a very distinct bullish narrative into this pivot as well.
So what could we expect here? Well, if we are looking at local price action which is likely going to happen within a week from now, you'll be observing the reaction around this area because as we've seen every single time we've seen a negative reaction. So if we start getting to this day and we're still around these highs here, there's a very good chance that we actually reject after this zone into May. Everyone's familiar with the term sell in May and go away. However, if the structure validates it and we push into this psychological pivot, we can see that 29th of April could send us downwards and we could see a 5 to 6% drop based on the historical examples which we have seen here which would put Bitcoin testing at around 70K minimum from where the current price is now. If we are mimicking the previous drops as well. Now, just like any pattern, it is going to be invalid. But I have been doing this since October and I've managed to capture every single move towards the downside using this illustration of where we are likely going to see volatility. So, this is one little thing I am observing as well in terms of overall market structure.
So if we start going to the weekly time frame here, we can see we have pushed above the previous range high which is at 76K. We can see we've tested this previous wick here and we've had four consecutive strong weekly candles whilst the trend remains bearish. So a lot of people are observing the 84K CME gap and it's at 84K to be fully filled which would mean we'd have to push all the way up to here to get that fill. Now, the reason I've pushed my invalidation to 83K as an SSL is because if we do wick up to the gap and we start showing signs of a violent rejection, we might just wick up to 83, 84K, fill the gap, and then reverse straight back down below 80K. In the event that that happens, I don't want to be wicked out of my position in the event of my entry being too soon. So the reason why I've pushed it to an SSL is purely because if we do wick above, we could have a quick fill of the gap and then push right back downwards afterwards. If we manage to get a weekly close above the gap and I happen to get invalidated, well then I'll close my position, re-evaluate, wait for structure to show the signs of exhaustion if we are going to push lower and then I'll look for them triggers. But as of now, this is a scenario which everyone is observing and I don't necessarily think it has to happen. As I've stated previous times in the past, we had two exhaustion gaps around here. One took 300 days to fill. The other one took 500 days to fill. So, we don't actually have to fill this gap fully for a long time. And if we start measuring out the price action from when we formed that gap, it's been about 84 days. So, we don't have to necessarily fill this gap instantly.
If we start moving over to the monthly here, we can see that the trend is still bearish. And a matter of fact, it looks very similar to when we were around this price region as well. We had the push downwards. We had the leg up, swept the highs, the next following candle open, and then we saw that push downwards. So, if we are mimicking this particular scenario here, you'd be observing the April close and then if we start showing acceptance back into the range, they are the triggers for downside. If you are not in any short positions, well, the best thing to do is wait for the acceptance. The acceptance would be retracing back below 76K showing bearish signs like this with deviation acceptance above and then you look for the trigger on the retest if you're looking to be extremely safe.
Now the reason why I'm not expecting us to go to 90K or 85K is purely because of historical data. I am not willing to bet against history and you've probably seen me show this chart multiple times. Our first cycle 426 days to form the bottom. The characteristics. We saw a double sweep of the bottom before pushing upwards. Our next cycle 2017 December, we had 365 day bare market. We had a wick form and then we swept the wick low yet again forming somewhat of a double bottom. Our next volume following cycle 365 days and we had another sweep of that capitulation wick. We can see that our current capitulation wick sits at 60K within 123 days. So what does this mean? What does this tell us? Well, based on the historical samples, it tells us that because we are not within that 365 day period, which puts us in October 2026, the chances of sweeping the current wick low are high based on historical data.
Now, as I have mentioned at the start of my video, I have been able to predict 1 and a half years of price action almost to the T and the tops and bottoms within the range based on using historical examples. So, I'm not about to deviate from something which has been working. If it happens to be invalidated, so be it. At this present time, I'm not going to go against something which has been happening since 2013 in price action. Right? Yes, it's only three comparisons, but that doesn't take away how the market is traditionally moving based on a longer time frame spectrum, right? I don't care about the macro. I don't care about the news. This is all noise to me. What I care specifically about is the timing of events, the price action, the psychology, and the psychology, price action, and historical data all align to show us that look, this should be a lower high and we should retrace lower. So if we happen to do the scenario of pushing upwards and being bottomed from here, I will happily be invalidated and admit that I am wrong. I'm not about to abandon a system which has allowed me to predict everything just because we are seeing a higher move than anticipated. Right? We could easily go slightly higher than anticipations and still reverse to the downside. But this is something which I'm observing as well as a sweep of the wick low into Q3 and then we see the recovery and a bull market begin. I believe this current pump we are seeing here is just a relief rally to get people to believe the bottom is in, build liquidity, take out shorts in the process, rebalance the market, bring back some optimism and then reverse back downwards. As we have seen multiple times in the past, we've had these little bounces before continuation lower. It was also expected for us to have a bounce because we had five months of red. So what we are seeing now is by no surprise. It was expected to have a bounce. But as always, retail and most people are going to flip bullish at the wrong time. The trend on the higher time frame is still bearish.
Another metric which I want to observe here is USDT dominance. And as we can see, each one of these markings represent when Bitcoin created a new all-time high. And this price action, which happens afterwards, is the bare market price action. As we can see, we are forming higher lows here. Each one corresponds with a new Bitcoin all-time high. And we can see every single time we create a new all-time high, we sweep the previous high on USDT dominance. In this case, this was our bare market bottom. We swept above that area. This was our bare market bottom. We are yet to sweep above that area as well. So this is another little pattern which I'm observing as well which suggests that USDT should sweep above this area as well. And for those who don't understand what USDT dominance means when it goes up and down. It's basically the correlation with risk assets. Obviously the more USDT goes up the more stables people are holding and vice versa. Now the reason why this continues to create higher highs and higher lows is because naturally there is more USDT being printed every cycle. There's more money flow and more equity being pushed into the crypto markets. This is to why USDT dominance continues to create new highs each cycle because there's more money being parked in stables and there's more stables in circulation. So we should also break above this area which suggests that Bitcoin should also sweep that 60K low again based on historical price action.
Another chart which I want to observe here is on bit where we are seeing bull accumulation bear and distribution. We can see obviously our bull is our red overheated. We can see accumulation is the blue. We can see our bear is the green. Now we can see every single cycle we have seen extended greens of bears. Why? Because this is where people capitulate positions. Slow bleed chop. We've seen this every single cycle, but as of now we have just been in the distribution phase based on this metric as well. We haven't seen this extended green. We did have a slight flash when we got to that 60K region, but we did not see extended green, which means that we haven't actually been in the lower spectrum of the range for long enough to form a macro bottom as macro bottoms tend to form over prolonged chop within a defined range. As of now, we haven't seen that. So, this suggests that we are still in this distribution phase. In other words, because we are in a new range, redistribution above the highs before potentially pushing lower, ranging around Q3, sweeping the lows, and then pushing back upwards.
Lastly, looking at the 180 day realized price percentage. We can see every single bare cycle yet again is an extended red where holders are in a loss for a prolonged time span. Right? We see this back in 2015. We see this back in 2019. We see this in 2022 to 2023. What do we see now? Well, we don't see that extended red, meaning that holders actually haven't been in a loss for that long of a time. Now, I have said that the cycles are going to eventually shift and we are eventually going to see different price action over future cycles, but I'm not seeing us bottoming within 120 days. This is a very drastic drop. I see a steady decline. For instance, if we go back to our previous chart, we see 426, we see 365, we see 365. So what I'm seeing every cycle is that the cycles get gradually shorter, 300 days. The next cycle is going to be 250 days. Then the next one's going to be 200 days and so forth. This is what I anticipate. I do not expect us to bottom within 123 days because we can see this isn't a gradual pattern here. We had seen 4, 3, 3, 1. If we keep doing that, that means next cycle would be around 60 days, which wouldn't make much sense, right? So I do not think we've bottomed in 120 days. I think we are most likely going to bottom around July August period where we see the pivot for new highs as well. Remember everything which I do is grounded in logic and historical data. I do not believe in skeptical beliefs. I do not believe in ETFs changing things. I'm trading and making predictions solely based on historical data.
Now, in terms of invalidation of the bare market, I'm heading over to my Twitter where I posted the SMA 111 day. And we can see every single time Bitcoin has trailed below this area or had a test of this area. We did see deviation around here, but we retraced below. Every single time we've maintained below this, we have been in an extended bare market. As we can see here, we are testing this price region as we speak. So in terms of a trend shift and us pushing higher, we would have to see Bitcoin flip the 111 SMA on the higher time frame, which would basically mean Bitcoin has to break to 90K to invalidate this downtrend. Until we see that there's no significant shift in trend, all we are seeing is a lower high. So, for the bare thesis to be invalid, we would have to flip this area, which again, we'd have to break straight through with force as seen in the previous cycles and hit that 90K region. In the event that happens, I will re-evaluate, trade the new structure, and trade the new trend. But until that happens, I am going to trade based on historical data only. As always, I'm not going to change something which isn't broken. So, I hope this video has informed you into the reasons why I am still bearish on the higher time frame. Yet again, as I've always preached, my trading is based on data and data alone. Nothing to do with emotion. If the data is showing that we should have extended downside, I am going to favor that until we decorrelate from the previous cycles.
So, thanks for listening and I'll catch you guys.