Transcription
With measures like this, there should have been warnings from the ruling party all along. But I believe China has its own unique character, and I think they might take action now. When we used to talk about when we were at 5,000, I thought, "Wow, don't even call it that!" because we wouldn't see that in this lifetime. But if it truly goes to the deepest heart, it's possible.
Last weekend, there was a piece of news. This news might have an impact on the gold market, so today we will discuss it. This is because China is going to block retail investors from accessing gold. They say it's a temporary block because they say it's a temporary suspension. So, China has allowed its major banks, many of them, led by ICBC, to stop providing services starting July 24th. This means they will not allow new accounts to be opened with retail investors who use leverage. This refers to futures trading, like speculating at very high levels, where you only put down 10% or 5% of the value and can trade an amount equal to the value of gold. It's similar to our derivatives market here. They have instructed banks and brokers not to release this money and have stopped opening new accounts and trading accounts temporarily, starting from July 24th. We all know that the Chinese market has only a few assets for investment: stocks, gold, and real estate. Stocks were already hit. China went in to crack down on them before. Real estate is currently being nurtured. Now, gold is hit again. What interests us is that gold has already entered a bear market; it's not going anywhere. Today, the price of gold has fallen below $4,000 per ounce. With this situation in China, we don't know how much it will affect the gold price. Today, we will discuss this. And what's important is that the Chinese authorities have done this, indicating they see a risk in borrowing money to invest. The gold trading in China, in terms of leverage, is likely very high, so they have to temporarily close these channels. How much will this shake things up, both for trading and for the direction of gold prices? Or does China have other channels for investment, such as buying physical gold bars or ETFs? But ETFs are also selling a lot right now. The Go ETF and the SPDR are selling. Only the central bank of China has been continuously buying. But otherwise, everything is quiet now. Gold. Today, we will discuss two things: this measure from China, and another issue about gold: have we found the bottom yet? Is below $4,000 per ounce the bottom? Today, we have invited Mr. Boonlert Siriphatthanawanit, CEO of Ozis Company Limited, to join us for analysis and discussion on this matter. Hello, Mr. Boonlert.
Hello.
Hello, Mr. Boonlert. I'm not sure if this news will have any impact on the gold price. Actually, this news emerged last weekend, on Friday, the 25th. Bloomberg reported that major Chinese banks are currently acting as intermediaries for trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. But they are going to reduce their paper gold services. Simply put, they are trying to make paper gold disappear from the market. I'm not sure if this will have any impact on the gold market. What is your interpretation of this implication, Mr. Boonlert?
I must tell you, when we talk about gold, we use general terms like global gold, right? Thai gold. Let's call this Chinese gold, from Shanghai. And what's happening is on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Is it a fully open system to the global market? It's somewhat in between. Because we know that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has a special characteristic in one regard: the premium for issuing physical gold is quite high. This means that demand from China itself is enormous. And this gap has always been known, sometimes it's hundreds of dollars in terms of premium and the difference in price compared to the global standard price we see in the London market. We believe that being in the exchange market, like seeing it in the ETF market, we see buyers and sellers, both institutional and retail. And we see positions in terms of the exchange. Because the exchange is a marketplace where buyers and sellers meet. And there are market makers, market mechanisms that are exchange markets. And I understand that they probably see the volatility of the market, from the highest point we saw, and then back down below $4,000. I understand that most positions, I think they probably see that many people are in long positions. And the market in the past, with such high volatility, from high to low, it's nearly 30%. This means that if we have a paper market, I think many people have been liquidated many times. And I understand that investors are likely to be the ones who suffer more. And the Chinese authorities want what they call consumer protection, to protect retail investors. And another thing might be market-level protection, not wanting market-level risk at all. So they issued a warning first, and finally issued a rule that on the 24th, they are suspending, meaning a temporary stop, rather than closing the market. And they are allowing and forcing retail investors to close their positions. We will see market volatility in the sense that if a client has a long position, they will definitely be short squeezed, meaning they have to sell to close the contract. This means that when it bounces up, it might be a reaction that benefits from the Chinese market, because there are many of them. And I believe that investors, not just Chinese investors, but global investors, during such a deep downturn, will have long positions. And we see the open interest in the market, we see that we are also in a long position. It's clear that this is done to protect the market from damage and to prevent retail investors from suffering more, and to create market stability. So, I believe this is a policy that is rarely seen in other markets, which generally rely on free mechanisms and don't force or regulate investors in any way. They let investors learn. But I believe China has its own unique character, and I think they might take action now after seeing the market positions, not wanting more damage. This is what I have gathered.
How large is the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and how influential is it, especially with its "paper gold," which is similar to futures contracts, right? Similar to our ETFs, which have gold futures and so on. How large is it, and how influential is it if trading is temporarily halted, Mr. Boonlert?
As I mentioned, on one hand, it's a global gold market. The Shanghai Gold Exchange itself, perhaps calling it closed isn't entirely accurate. In reality, only Chinese citizens and institutions that are permitted can trade there. And participants must be those actually authorized by the Gold Exchange. This means that if it affects the global market, it's not as much as it sounds. I've checked with our broker partners, and they found that it has some impact in terms of sentiment and also in terms of volume, which is large. However, I must say that the Chinese market is very large. I'd like you to look back a bit. Actually, the gold market has only truly opened up in the last 20-30 years. Before that, there were changes in governance and periods of war. Before that, Chinese people couldn't access gold at all, due to being socialist, a socialist government. And as China joined the WTO and began to open up its markets, China gradually relaxed the rules for selling gold. It started by allowing citizens to hold physical gold, which was very good news at the time. Chinese people rejoiced, as it's part of their culture, passed down from parents and grandparents, that they can now hold gold. But before that, they had no right to hold it; it was even a prohibited item. Therefore, friends who are Chinese have compared it to a sponge that has never received water before. This has led to a massive development in the volume of gold trading and gold jewelry production in China over the last 20-30 years. The market has grown tremendously, and the volume is astounding. We've never seen the actual volume from China, but what we do know is that China is the world's largest producer, and China also has the idea of reserving gold, still importing it. And how much gold is used is absorbed by the public and the central bank. China also had a quota system, where if you export, you can, but not more than you import. Do you understand? This means that at the institutional level, at the bank level, you cannot net export. So China is still a net importer. And we see a clear trend that currently, in the last month, China bought a lot of gold, over 100 tons. It was around 160-odd tons. This is a new high for gold. And on average, if we speak in round numbers, they buy 100-150 tons every month for many years. On average, some months they buy less, some months more. But quarterly, we see figures around 300-400 tons, 400-500 tons consistently. So it remains a net importer, a net consumer. So, to answer your question, the Chinese market is very large. And the exchange market itself, a bit more:
The exchange market itself has developed. It gradually moved from a physical market. And the exchange is the very first market where operators and the government came together to create a mechanism. This mechanism mimics the American and London markets, a hybrid approach of caring for physical gold in London and using the exchange at a level similar to the futures market. So, the unique characteristic of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is that it has leverage and trading that represents both investors, gold shops, refineries, industries, and factories. All of them are here.
The participants in China are very unique, and their stakeholders are of all types. And later, they gradually allowed foreign traders who met the criteria to trade with them, with the understanding that if it's beneficial to them, they are welcome. And I believe that the Shanghai Gold Exchange has its own unique management characteristics. And I believe this measure is very clear: it's a measure against brokers or bankers who connect to the exchange. For this group, especially retail investors, they think it must be suspended and stopped because it's too much, and the market doesn't want more damage. That's about it. But I must say it's not to the extent of such damage. It's just that the speculative mechanism is a warning signal that speculative markets do not create stability for the gold business. So, take it easy. And what's happening now is that investors are offsetting their positions, whether short or long, so they stop and reset to zero. But I believe this mechanism will gradually return in the future. And another measure is not to open new clients, not to open new accounts. Only existing accounts are allowed.
Normally, what is the proportion of futures trading, or "paper gold," as it's called? It's not literally paper, but a contract with its own value. What is the proportion of this compared to actual physical gold in China, Mr. Boonlert? Do you have any information?
I think everywhere, Ms. Na. If we compare it in terms of exposure, like net value of leverage, for example, if we use 10% margin, we have 10 times leverage. The actual amount of 10 times, the exchange will always be higher. But the Chinese market is a market with unique characteristics, and the volume of physical gold is very large.
But it's not officially disclosed how much it is, the paper gold market versus the exchange market. But generally, it's much larger, Ms. Na.
Yes. But I understand that in the exchange market, which is futures trading, there is a lot of leverage, right?
Exactly. In terms of borrowing money, they allow you to buy at a price that is not the full price. You only put down about 10% of the value. In reality, China probably sees this risk quite clearly, that there is a lot of speculation, so they are closing the channel specifically for retail investors, right? But the channel for institutions is not closed?
The trading channel is not closed at all. Everything is as usual.
Oh.
And before this measure, the banks, like ICBC, increased their margin requirement by 140%.
Meaning, if you want to trade gold, say 100 ounces, you need to use 140 ounces of money. It's like using more money to trade less gold. It's clear they want to curb it. This means that even the banks themselves, before this measure, used what they could do. If you want to speculate, you want to buy this much gold, you have to put down 1.4 times more. No one would do that. Wouldn't it be better to use that money to buy physical gold? So, it was already a brake.
So, it means that even the banks themselves...
Agreed that there shouldn't be investors speculating too much.
Oh. We understand that in China, they invest in only a few things: real estate, gold, and stocks. Stocks were already curbed by the Chinese authorities. Because when China buys something, it's really... it's overwhelming. Now, with gold, there's this curb again. Is this a curb on leverage, which is futures trading with high leverage? But other products, like physical purchases or gold-linked products, are still open as usual, right? They are still open.
Everything, simply put, is speculation through leverage from "paper gold."
They are trying to...
Block it and stop it first. It's a temporary brake. Transactions like ETFs, funds, gold shops, normal trading, all activities in the supply chain, imports, exports, everything is the same.
One more thing I'd like to add. Currently, there are two important matters in the gold industry, specifically for our physical gold. One is the establishment of the Singapore Gold Hub, which many of you know will function as a clearinghouse and settlement center for gold deposits in the vault, following the standards set in London, the London Bullion Market Association. And another part, especially today we're talking about China, is that Hong Kong is doing the same as Singapore. Singapore focuses on trading for actual investors, mainly on gold deposits on a 1-kilogram scale, though large bars are also possible. But it accepts, meaning the gold we trade in our country, if it's 99.994%, we accept the standard of 1 kilogram. Hong Kong, on the other hand, will do the same, acting as a clearinghouse and settlement center for finance and gold, accepting the 12.5-kilogram standard, the same standard as all central banks. This means that Hong Kong will serve as a clearinghouse at the institutional level, as a central hub for banks that need to settle among themselves. So, it represents Asia on the upper side, and Asia Pacific is in Singapore. I see this mechanism as one that the Chinese gold market, using the Hong Kong mechanism, Hong Kong is the gateway to the global gold market. I think, to some extent, it might be related to the issue you raised about retail speculators. I believe this mechanism will be active around August or September in Hong Kong. And this measure will reset speculators from July 24th. This means that if it's a truly international mechanism, China wants to create standards at the institutional level.
More institutional. As for retail investors, who might have positions or other impacts, they may have to wait for this process to settle. And I believe that Hong Kong establishing a clearinghouse and settlement for gold will be a mechanism that clearly indicates that in the future, for physical gold, there will be no need to store it in London or the West anymore. The major buyers and traders are now coming towards us, the East, Asia. This means that in terms of becoming a global physical gold center, the focus will be here. Previously, we also looked at Dubai, but due to uncertainty and instability in recent months, I would say it's an opportunity because I see that policymakers in governments, both in Singapore and Hong Kong, have set very fast timelines and are seizing this opportunity to create these hubs.
To be a true center. But as Asians, I consider it a positive for us. It's just a shame that for Thailand to become a gold hub, we have the capability and potential to do so as well. So, in the future, we may have to follow this path, Ms. Na.
Yes. Earlier this year, gold was related to the baht. The central bank might have had to protect what seemed to have a widespread impact, which was the baht. So, we might have lost the championship to Singapore. Actually, we should have been very ready, both in terms of demand and... what do you call it... the backend, trading, wholesale, quite a lot.
Yes. And there is...
But this has gone through Singapore. Yes, but I think everything has principles and reasons. We have our reasons. We have our own conditions. I believe these conditions must be overcome. The development of our gold market still focuses on the retail business, regarding investors who have a long-standing culture of gold jewelry. We have red cabinet gold shops, which are the true roots of the gold industry nationwide. We have a strong wholesale system for gold jewelry production. We have efficient importers and exporters at the international level. And we have platforms on every platform. And we are also connected with banks. Currently, for financial transactions related to gold, in areas where we are not as strong as banks, banks have already handled them, building investor confidence. In areas where we are strong, like declaring or verifying gold, or settling gold matters, we have fulfilled our duties. As you said, Ms. Na, the conditions might be different, but we expect them to improve in the future.
Yes. But I understand that this time, as Mr. Boonlert mentioned, there is also a forced closure of positions. Because starting July 24th, they will stop providing services to retail investors for futures trading, which has quite high leverage. Will this have any impact, especially on short-term sell orders? What is the direction and price?
I think it will, but it's within the exchange system. And I believe it's semi-open, semi-closed. It will affect the pockets of investors who have positions opposite to the current market price. I believe some will benefit, and some will lose, for sure. But with the exchange mechanism, it will be settled between buyers and sellers. So, it's a zero-sum game, it squares accordingly. But with the actual mechanism, I believe the authorities have seen retail investors at a disadvantage. I think this measure, ultimately, might be a good reminder, that it's to help retail investors not be at a greater disadvantage. This is my opinion. But of course, there will be injuries, bloodshed for sure in this event. But I think the market will find its own way to stabilize the existing mechanisms. But ultimately, I have 100% belief that it's impossible to block retail investors. If you are an exchange, you must open. It's just a pause and a very strong brake. I believe investors will learn. The market mechanisms, in terms of banking as market makers, will likely create better mechanisms in the future.
But I believe it will definitely open in the future, not close. Because an exchange needs complete participants. If retail investors are missing, it's not just a lack of color; the market's completeness will not occur.
Oh. So this is like, wow, for retail investors.
And they are traders. Traders need very high liquidity, right? Transactions must happen because it's about speculation. If the channel through brokers is no longer available, what other channels will they use for investment, Mr. Boonlert? Can you guess?
So, I mean, if I think of channels, the exchange itself is for participants within China. But with the exchange mechanism, I think it can connect to the whole world. Internationally, you don't have to worry about squaring positions or anything else. It's a normal mechanism that happens in our world. So, some effects are certain, but it will be a net effect on the local market. There will definitely be squaring of positions, both buying and selling. And ultimately, sending positions out to square abroad, or through the financial mechanisms of Chinese people or the Chinese government, I believe they are competitive enough not to have any impact on the exchange. The exchange will survive, don't worry. But it might affect Thai investors, causing the price to be capped, unable to rise beyond what we see. Gold is trying to stay at $4,000, trying to go to $4,100. But ultimately, it falls back down. So, currently, it's trading below the current price, and below $4,000. I believe if this situation continues, and if the hedging settlement can still cover the market, and many technical indicators have broken down since the 200-day or 100-day moving averages, we see that if you are still trading below these lines, the chance of gold returning to a true uptrend is not now. Right now, the market is looking for a bottom. And the bottom has not yet been defined. I think many analysts you've interviewed will see it similarly: it might go below $4,000, perhaps to $3,980, or even as far as $3,600. I interpret this as 10% from $4,000, meaning it has fallen 30% or more than 20% from the highest point. Wow, if it falls another 10%, that's a 40% drop, almost half of the price increase. But personally, I don't think it will reach that point, because the actual gold market is very oversold. And as we heard about the Shanghai Gold Exchange, I think that, to some extent, it might have some effect on the market, both sentiment-wise and in terms of actual positions being squared. But I must say honestly, I believe that currently, it's likely close to the bottom for this round. This doesn't mean there won't be another round. I believe it could return to a V-shape or U-shape in the near future, or before the end of this year, we will definitely see it.
China is very different from us. We want them to use futures markets for both upward and downward management and risk management in the futures market. But China prohibits speculation. Actually, we want investors to participate. And now we have mini gold futures, which is only about 2 Thai baht, right? In terms of value. So, we asked because we have also experienced this. The central bank also capped it. I understand it was a value not exceeding 10 million baht, right, Mr. Boonlert? At that time, our retail investors speculated so much that the baht fluctuated wildly, becoming very strong, and gold also rose. So, they capped speculation. Our central bank did it first. And then China followed. We'd like to ask, is it likely that they will go to other channels, like buying gold ETFs or other funds, or buying physical gold bars in China? And will it affect the global gold price?
You mentioned the Thai market, Ms. Na.
This is about the Chinese market.
I think... I think this is just my own thought. I've interviewed people from China and am familiar with the operators. The learning curve for Chinese investors, if they are to advance, might be more advanced in Thailand. Those who are professional... due to capital, competition, or other factors, in the trading field, they are skilled. Robot trading, I've heard a lot about it. Chinese people are not ordinary. With a large population, there is a lot of passion. But overall, on average, I think Thai investors have a better learning curve. This is because our mechanisms are quite strong. Investors have clarity in investing in physical gold, understand online gold, and have a deep understanding of using the ETF market. I believe what we have currently is the result of a learning curve where retail investors have been hurt, and have benefited sometimes or not at all from the existing market. But looking specifically at Chinese people, I believe that if we look at the big picture, I believe it's clear that Chinese investors may not have encountered market volatility like this before, where it rises parabolically, breaking through all lines, and then falls. There was one month, I understand it was March, it fell very deeply, close to 4,000, around that time, right? And then it rebounded, and then fell again. As for me, with this market volatility, I believe Chinese people also cannot handle it, given the results of the Chinese authorities' intervention. It's clear they are at a disadvantage, so they don't want it to happen and think it's better to brake than to do nothing.
You see China as both a producer, a consumer, and a major importer in the world. When they change the rules, will it change the balance of supply and demand in the global gold market?
It's hard to say, but deep down, I think it won't change. Because at the institutional or banking level, I think they barely touch it. I believe they are even stronger in terms of their Chinese identity, the Chinese government's identity, which is quite monopolistic. And their having an outlet like the hybrid in Hong Kong, and many other things, I believe that the learning of Hong Kong businessmen and Chinese businessmen is now almost the same in terms of gold. We see many companies with roots in mainland China opening subsidiaries in Hong Kong. And we find that investors and businessmen in Hong Kong are also setting up many factories in China. I believe that with the context of trade, with the gold industry being unique to China, this balance is already quite strong.
Chinese businessmen and Hong Kong businessmen too.
But will this make China's gold market stronger, Mr. Boonlert? That is, by eliminating the bubble, Chinese investors might focus on gold for savings, real savings.
Will it get stronger? Or will liquidity decrease?
I think every measure will cause a shock.
Ah.
But after the shock, there will be a period of aftershocks. But ultimately, I think the market will learn that doing this is not good for the exchange, and what is good for investors, or not good for investors. Or if investors have no way out, meaning investors have to go to the bullion market, maybe there are many things that I think need to be weighed. But I believe that in this game, the exchange will always open to retail investors. There might be new criteria or new regulations to control and reduce market volatility and pricing. How to make the market most balanced and not affect investors. Another thing I think is education. I believe China must seriously focus on educating people about the market and gold investment. And I believe it's not just gold; gold is the most popular. I think the market that is affected is also silver. Silver has also fallen a lot, and investors in this area have also suffered. In the silver market as well. So, we have to look at many markets. There's the oil market, and others. I think China has diversity.
Yes. But gold is heavily affected because Chinese people invest a lot in gold, almost as much as real estate. And stocks, these are three assets they invest heavily in. So, if we see gold prices start to stabilize, I understand they went very high, to $5,500, $5,600, and then fell sharply. This year, it has fallen 24%. As you said, Mr. Boonlert, China must have seen it. If they did nothing, the damage would have been greater. So, going forward, if gold prices become stable, not too volatile, do you think they will resume services as usual?
I believe so.
A break to learn.
I believe so.
Ah.
I think the exchange itself, by its nature, needs participants. As I mentioned, we cannot lack any leg.
We cannot lack retail investors. The exchange will definitely not allow it. I believe that now, it's like...
To respond to government policy, those who set the direction see this. So, they have to follow the policymakers more.
Now, from today until July 24th, what do you think investors who hold gold should do? There are short-term, medium-term, long-term investors. Cold hands and hot hands. Cold hands are those who accumulate steadily. Hot hands are traders. What should they do, Mr. Boonlert? Or has the market already absorbed this news?
I think we've heard this news for a while. And I believe...
In brokers, there are traders. We are also called IC, right? As investment advisors. I think with measures like this, there should have been warnings from the ruling party all along. I believe they have squared a lot.
As for the official announcement, I think insiders might have known beforehand that there might be such measures. So, they gradually phased it out to avoid affecting the market too much. But actually, we see this as about 3 weeks away, right?
About 3-4 weeks, I think. So, there should be enough time.
But my question is, you said it might affect the external market, right? Will it affect us? Even saying that with the measures...
From China, will Thai investors be affected? It's like the market, as we saw yesterday, we rebounded close to 4,100, about 2-3 times, but...
It couldn't really go up. So...
For those who want to sell, meaning buying gold at a higher price, they have to sell when the price rebounds. But that's only one explanation. Because, as I mentioned, gold has the concept of "world gold," not just Chinese gold. Even though China has a large population, there are many more outside. And the largest exchange in the world is in Chicago, in America, which I think is the largest. And I believe it doesn't have an impact that is clearly significant.
Yes. Now, let's move on to the present. That's about the future, July 24th, when China will stop. That is, closing the channel for retail investors through futures contracts, "paper gold." But now, regarding the direction of gold prices. Mr. Boonlert, what do you think? It seems the support at $4,000 per ounce is no longer firm, right? Because today it broke below $4,000 again. It's trying to build a new support, but it's a lower support, below $4,000. What are your thoughts, Mr. Boonlert? You said this support is important because it's psychological for investors, for gold traders. If it breaks, it makes people afraid to invest.
When we are in familiar numbers, reaching 5,000, 5,000-plus, up to 5,600.
Yes. At the 5,000 level, we would think it wouldn't go below 4,000, it would be difficult to see 4,000. Even 4,800, 4,900 dollars would be quite difficult, even more so than seeing 6,000 in an uptrend.
But when it hits the ceiling, hits the high point, we look downwards. When we look downwards, it means if 5,000 cannot hold, what happens today is we look for 4,000 to hold. This is a $1,000 difference. We look long-term. And as has happened throughout the year, we have seen declines in many months. And the last bar of last month was a full red bar. The monthly momentum is very clear. If it's a technical analyst, they probably won't survive. In terms of real technicals, and we see the overall moving averages, whether it's the daily or weekly chart, it might not be very clear yet. I believe the weekly chart, this week will be the one that ends, and we will see clarity on how likely it is for gold to rebound to this support level. This means that if gold can stay above 3,900, I believe it can rebound to 4,000, 4,100. And if it breaks above 4,150, there might be some comfort that gold can hold $4,000.
Now, I think the big question is what should people who hold gold at high prices do, and how do they view gold at this level? And for those who think they need to buy gold to average their investment, is there still risk in entering the market now, when about 9 out of 10 experts say the market is bearish? Buying gold in a bearish market is not like a bull market. In a bull market, buying before selling is the correct strategy. But the question is, at what price level should one enter? In a bullish market, the opportunity for gold to make profits is in the uptrend. But it's the same in a bearish market. If we consider the overall picture, without talking about price mechanisms, without talking about prices, in a bearish market, you should sell first, then buy. But selling first and buying can be divided into two markets. You can sell first and buy in the ETF market, which is an exchange where you can short and long and leverage your investment. But if it's the physical gold market, it's difficult because you cannot short physical gold without having gold, unless you have physical gold at a high price and use the strategy of shorting it first to buy it back to average the price better. This is the mechanism of the physical gold market. The meaning is that at this price, it feels like the market is cheap. Is gold cheap now? And the current baht is even favorable. It's not as weak as the gold price has fallen. Normally, if they are truly correlated, with the dollar strengthening this much, our baht should be weaker. But the baht hasn't moved much. In reality, the purchasing power of the baht now allows us to buy gold cheaper than usual. This means the market is cheap. But it's defined by the term "bear market," which is contradictory. Should we buy? That's the next question. When to buy? Buy because it's cheap. I think investors who still have capital and funds left will feel much more comfortable buying now compared to the past 6-7, maybe 8 months, which was the best time.
So, if it's cheap, should we buy immediately? The answer is yes, it's not strange. It's just a matter of proportion. If you divide it into 10 parts, I would say 1-2 parts. If you ask me, I would recommend buying when it rises to $4,050, and if it falls back to $3,950, it's the same, just buy.
Which one to buy, buy that day? Or if you want to wait, you can wait because it's a bearish market, right? But the proportion of the market... for true traders, they say it's better to buy when the uptrend is confirmed.
Or now, it's not an uptrend, but a rebound. It's better to buy when the rebound is confirmed, even if it's a bit more expensive. You still can't find the bottom. If you buy cheap, and tomorrow it's even cheaper, and you regret the money you spent. So, I have to say, the logic is clear. The logic of current investors, Thai investors, is clear that the opportunity to buy in a downtrend and at a gold price cheaper than in the past, on average over the last 8 months, is suitable for buying.
Timing and proportion of purchase are more important. I recommend that now, you might have to look at it piece by piece. Every 300 baht, every 500 baht. Or if you are not a trader and don't understand technicals, I think many experts have pointed out the global targets. For example, the highest of the year, according to some analysts, is $4,900. So, the number 5 won't be seen. This means the market is clearly not breaking new highs in the second half of the year. We can say there won't be new highs. No guru is clear. If there is another war, another crisis, I believe it will be easy to reach in the future. But for now, everyone knows that the mechanisms related to gold, interest rates, the Fed's trend, rising oil prices, inflation, and Kevin Watch's attitude are very clear: they are hawkish and will cap inflation and raise interest rates more than lower them. Don't even think about lowering interest rates. They will keep interest rates high for as long as possible. So, currently, interest rates are expensive. 3.5, 3.75 is considered expensive. It's higher for longer.
But forget about lowering them, right? And the term is once or twice. The implication is clear. The first most important factor is that gold's chance of rising due to interest rate cuts is capped, very low.
And Mr. Trump cannot do anything more extreme than this.
He might do this and that, but I think his capacity is limited. He has used his last reserves with Iran, leaving nothing. And he is very aggressive.
Where else would he have reserves? He wouldn't dare anymore. Regarding trade wars, he will continue them due to his personality. But it won't be as extreme as before. He won't go too far with China, or with this person or that person, or fight with Greenland, or fight with Canada. He wouldn't dare do that. There will be some, but not as much. This means the chance of escalation being as severe as before...
It won't be as severe as before. It might be moderate or mild. This clearly indicates that the uptrend is likely capped.
Yes.
Regarding the new high we see, there are no new highs. We haven't seen new lows yet. We are looking for new lows. This might mean we won't buy at the lowest price. We have to wait for a rebound of $100-200. It's not strange. It's the average cost. With the mechanism of the US dollar and the Thai baht, I think it will give us some breathing room. Even if gold rises, the baht will strengthen. This will make it seem like we can find a good proportion for buying gold. The opportunity to buy gold in the early 60,000s is considered very good. The opportunity for us to buy gold at the level of...
Late 50,000s, we need to see up to...
$3,600-$3,700.
Which, if it really happens, is a number many people have marked. At least if it really goes there, then if you can't think of anything else, and one day the Gold Traders Association announces gold at 60,000 baht or just under 59,000 baht, you should almost buy it. It's like investors. This is not just promoting gold, Ms. Na. It means if you intend to buy gold, that's a purchase you can make. But a full purchase. And at that point, will you still be afraid? It's a bear market. It's like gold, which we thought would go to 6,000 when it reached 5,000. $5,500 was just a moment from 5,000. It might be possible that when it reaches 3,600, oh, 3,000 dollars, is it just a moment? You might want to prepare for that. Another rule is to keep another portion. But overall, Ms. Na, I believe that if investors consider the principles and reasons, it is clear that if you are a buyer, this is the best buying opportunity. And the timing, price, and quantity to invest in money management are more important than the mechanism. You have to make a decision in advance, like buying here and then continuing to buy. That's not wrong.
Or just buy it all at once and hold it for a long time, not wanting to bother too much. Consider it the best buying opportunity. Or in the past, you intended to buy and felt you didn't buy today, so you don't mind. That's okay. Or some people have shorted and are now buying here. At least they add to their portfolio, and it doesn't fall apart.
Yes. Many people might... I understand that right now, people want to buy gold, but they are waiting for the lowest point. There are many figures coming out, like 3,400, 3,500, 3,600. We don't know if that's the lowest point. But what factors, especially on the demand side, the trading side? Because they have to read the minds of who will think what. Which side has the opportunity to push gold down that deep? Because we understand that retail investors are likely stuck a lot now. And with such large volumes, it's likely institutions, right? Like SPDR, etc. Okay, let's talk one by one. If it's the trading side... I must tell you, Ms. Na, those who drive prices are mostly traders. Because they have leverage and capital that drives prices. And we don't know how much they will make the price to scare people, how deep, how deep until people are afraid to buy.
Deep to numbers we can't imagine, like $2,900. Will we see $2,000 again? When we talked about when we were at 5,000, we thought, "Wow, don't even call it that!" because we wouldn't see that in this lifetime. But if it truly goes to the deepest heart, it's possible. Those who have leverage, or other mechanisms that can do it.
Yes.
So, with what's happening, we have to consider that if you are a trader, right now, it's like you can't play long. You can't look too far ahead. You have to finish within the bearish market, within the position you have squared.
Yes.
And if you are someone who intends to hold gold, you have to plan now. If it reaches that point, buy in advance. If it reaches this point, will you buy or not? And follow the plan very basically, without worrying about anything else. Just follow the plan, whatever it is. It depends only on the price.
Don't be like me, I also believe in "dis" stars. That everything is "disc to price," no matter what scissors it is, in the end, it ends with price. When the price is reached, it is the most sacred thing. Just set the price, and it's done in terms of investment. But if you are a trader, you have to use this timeframe, that timeframe. For trading, you follow the criteria and rules in that part. If you believe in the straight line, this straight line, then you have to follow the plan. But all plans are good.
Uh.
It's just that what's not good is not following the plan. Oh, this is the most important thing. But if all plans are good, and because of the plan, all plans, if all plans are good, it means plans that have both profit and loss. And if you are a good investor, you must see that we should have a percentage of profit in the part of the profit plan, in the net profit part, better than net loss. This is the best plan. If you follow the plan, you won't be harmed. Not harmed means not losing money. Harmed means losing money, which is possible. But if you follow the plan, it will be very okay. But I think investors themselves, they are really, I think "Bottom L" is really.
Yes.
Because "F" figures are now all over the market. And I think I also believe in that "F" figure. It really exists. And I think there are very clear principles and reasons for it. Currently, and especially after this interview, it's like it has rebounded 2-3 times and is below $4,000.
Will it be another round? It's possible. But if today it's "p f" and it drops below, or it gets close to $3,900.
The rebound can only be expected to be around $4,000.
In the short term, it's not like the number goes to $4,100, like us.
We expect that if $4,100 breaks through to $4,140, it will reach $4,200, $4,300. Oh, that picture is very clear if it can really rebound. And we can see "p sh" happen immediately. But now, "V sh f" might have reduced the possibility, and "w sh f" has also decreased a bit.
Maybe only "U sh f" or something. We might have to see. And this week is also important because there are "non f". I believe that now we have to wait for this "f" figure, and there is "Kevin watch" coming to speak. I think it will definitely be similar to last time. It will probably cap the interest rate as well.
Ah, that's the main issue. And capping inflation.
Uh.
But anyway, I think investors now, one thing, if they are mindful of the current price.
Overall, we must see.
The opportunity to buy in the long term has arrived, and it is worth investing in.
Uh.
Set the plan.
Ah, it's clear. For the long term, we will still have a chance to see $4,900. I see some foreign institutions still analyzing that $5,000 is still possible to see a little over $5,000, or $4,900. It's still seen here and there. Therefore, during the period when it dropped below $4,000 and bounced back, I said this is likely the base we can say. The base is around here. For the medium term, anyone who wants to invest can invest. But for those who want to profit, don't worry, we can catch the timeframe tomorrow. And what the Chinese authorities have announced regarding "su pends," which is a temporary halt, in the retail trading and investment channels, there might be some impact, but it's unlikely to be too much. The market has probably absorbed it quite a bit. Thank you very much today, Khun Lert, for joining the discussion with Chat. Thank you. Goodbye.
Thank you, Khun Daew. Viewers.
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