Transcription
Who is the next league-winning wide receiver this year? And what is the optimal strategy for addressing this position in fantasy drafts? Those two questions you guys should have the answer to by the end of this video. We've done quarterbacks already. We've done tight ends already. Running backs will be next Saturday.
I wanted to thank you guys quickly before we get into this for getting us to 80,000 subscribers. It's been a great six and a half years of doing this. We are hoping to get to 100K by about Christmas time. So, make sure you hit the subscribe button. Subscribers win titles around here.
But without further ado, we've had 36 league-winning wide receiver seasons, which is 20-plus PPR points per game with at least 12 games played on that season. That is the question that we're looking to answer today. Who is the next Jackson Smith-Njigba, the next Puka Nacua? Those are the two receivers that scored over 20 points per game last season. And these are their averages on a volume and a situational perspective.
As always, when we go through these videos, I've been doing them for about 5 years now. If you want the full process, I'll link a past year's video for you. But basically, what we're doing here is using their anatomy, those 36 receivers, as a road map to find future league-winning wide receivers.
So, on average, we're looking at about 10 targets a game, seven receptions per game, about a 10 to 12 touchdown season on average. From a volume perspective, we want receivers who are on average on a top 10 scoring offense, top nine scoring offense, top 10 quarterback and PFF passing grade. Team pass attempts about 595 or so. That's about a top 10 offense in terms of overall pass volume. Highest targeted secondary option. So again, we want wide receivers who are the clear number one ideally, but the secondary option has about a 100 targets on average or less. Offensive line rank and pass blocking, you want about a top 12 offensive line. Yards per route run is just the way that I'm measuring talent here, but generally top five to top 10 receiver talent in the league would be an ideal situation. And also, we've used Reception Perception data courtesy of Matt Harmon. 90th percentile or better in either man coverage win rate or zone coverage win rate. To be a great receiver in the NFL, you've got to be able to get open at least against one of those coverages, if not against both of them at an extremely high level.
So those two receivers, Puka Nacua and JSN, were the only receivers last year who scored 20-plus points per game. But in addition to finding those guys, we also want to be on the hunt for the next George Pickens, the next Chris Olave. Those mid-round, fifth, sixth, seventh-round wide receivers that end up finishing as wide receiver ones because in the first two to three rounds generally, that's where you're going to find those 20-point per game smashes. ADP is very efficient these days. We know what to look for. So rounds 4 to 8, it's a little bit more challenging to find a smash like that, but Olave and Pickens are the hits that we're looking for if we're being realistic.
Since 2020, the only receiver to score 20-plus points per game outside of the first three rounds of ADP the year they were drafted is Cooper Kupp in 2021. And that's because he had a lot of injury issues coming into the season. JSN is actually the only other receiver not drafted in round one or two. He was drafted in round three last year. So, when we look at the percentage of players drafted in each round to become league winners, and you look at the wide receiver position, generally you can see here rounds one, rounds two, rounds three-ish, and rounds four is where you're going to find the majority of league winners at this position. Generally, we know how to value this position pretty well.
So, based on the averages of those 36 league winners, we're going to score the 2026 wide receivers in ADP in order of where they're going on Underdog. And a quick reminder, if you guys want to draft on Underdog, win huge prizes, you can sign up right now with code FSE. New Underdog users get $50 in bonus entries, plus our draft guide, our 2026 projections and our rookie guide and start-sit rankings for the season to help you win your fantasy league this year. All you have to do is sign up with a minimum $10. You can then win money with that money as well. Existing Underdog users, if you've already been a user of Underdog for a while, can also get it with our season pass. Our season pass gets you our real-time draft assistant for Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, plus an all-new ability to adjust rankings yourself. You can take my rankings as a base and if you disagree with me on certain things, you can create your own rankings to use in all of the tools we have on the site, the my teams page, the calculator, the real-time draft assistance, and all that good stuff.
So, let's get into the ADP wide receivers here. Wide receivers one through nine. I'm going to cut down how long this part of the video is because I think the strategy and determining who the next league winner is more important. So, I'm just going to breeze through the individual cases, the pros and cons of each one of these guys because I don't want to spend 35 minutes of your guys' time going through all of this stuff.
So, Jamar Chase, what we know about him, he's an elite talent. He has an elite offense, elite pass volume. The only areas he falls short in is the Bengals don't have a good offensive line and T. Higgins is going to have more than 100 targets as we know, but generally a very, very ironclad case to be a league winner. Puka Nacua, same thing. Uh, the Rams have a good offensive line, not an excellent one. And also the uh, the Davante Adams number two receiver is probably going to have more than 100 targets this season. And Puka Nacua has a little bit more injury concern than Jamar Chase does. Jackson Smith-Njigba on a good offense, but not a great offense like those other two guys. And we also have a good sense or have a good feeling that the Seahawks will be more run-heavy than the Rams and the Bengals will be respectively. So that's why he ranks a little bit lower here. And of course, we're going to score all these wide receivers towards the end of the video to determine who the best options are. Amon-Ra St. Brown on a great offense with a great quarterback. Definitely more target competition with Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams there, but definitely a very, very good option himself.
Another thing I wanted to note here, the archetype column, the early-round wide receiver strategy video that I do every year where I label guys prime wide receiver ones, trusty veterans, prime wide receiver twos, or breakout candidates. I've decided this year to incorporate that into the scoring. And the reason I'm doing that is because prime wide receiver ones have the highest projected hit rate and smash rate. So, we want to be valuing that as part of it. Prime wide receiver two is the second highest, breakout candidates the third highest, and trusty veterans the worst.
So CeeDee Lamb, great offense, great quarterback, high-end pass volume. Again, more target competition with George Pickens and Jake Ferguson there, but we know he's an elite talent and we know he's capable of doing this because he's done it before in 2023. Justin Jefferson, same thing. Little bit more target competition than he's had in years past with Jennings, with Addison, and with Hockenson there. And we also have quarterback question marks about Justin Jefferson because we now have a situation here where Kyler Murray is coming in. We saw what it looked like last season with JJ McCarthy when things went poorly for Justin Jefferson. He showed last year he is not QB-proof. So Kyler Murray is going to have to be an upgrade to what they had last year. Low bar, but definitely Kyler Murray is not the most reliable quarterback in the world.
A.J. Brown, um, another really good option, pretty crystal-clear projection. The only concern I have for A.J. Brown is is he still the same player that he once was? Because his Reception Perception numbers dipped. And also too, he is a trusty veteran archetype being above the age of 29. Drake London, we have question marks about the offense and the quarterback play, but that is pretty much it. He's the best archetype we want. We know he's going to get the volume. He's the clear number one of his team. I gave Kyle Pitts the benefit of the doubt that he could achieve about 100 to 120 targets, but it's not a guarantee that he even does that. So, Drake London a pretty clean projection if you believe in two of whatever quarterback play that they have there.
Nico Collins, um, couple of really high-end things. He's a great receiver. Always ranks high in yards per route run and Reception Perception. And he's been a wide receiver one before. The only issue here is the Texans offensive line is really bad. It's one of the worst in the NFL. And I'm giving C.J. Stroud the benefit of the doubt here. I gave him, you know, yes, he can be a top 12 fantasy quarterback or a top 12 quarterback, but that's not a guarantee. We don't know for sure if Stroud is going to be that good. And also, Nico Collins has a little bit more target competition than he's had in years past. I think Tank Dell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jaylen Wright could all be involved. And of course, Dalton Schultz as well at tight end.
Moving into wide receivers 10 through wide receivers 18 in fantasy ADP right now. Again, you can see that it starts to go downhill pretty quickly in terms of their overall positive cases because, you know, that's just how ADP is going to work. George Pickens has all the same factors as Lamb. Great offense, great quarterback, high pass volume. The only difference here is because Lamb is probably not going to get injured this year. At least I'm not predicting him to because we have no idea if he will or not. Um, Pickens' probably not going to have that 10-target per game upside. And also too, CeeDee Lamb is projecting for 150-160 targets and that's way more than the 100 highest targeted secondary option because obviously Pickens is the secondary option in this offense, but he is a prime wide receiver one and that is very important.
Rashee Rice, ironically, not a prime wide receiver one because he's never played enough games in order for him to qualify as a 12-plus games played wide receiver one season. So, he is technically still a breakout candidate, but we know over the last two years if you combined them, he'd have wide receiver one production. He still plays in one of the better offenses in the league. I'm not going to say one of the best offenses in the league because Mahomes is coming off of an injury. They haven't been a top 15 scoring offense consistently over the last four or five years. So, we feel good about the Chiefs, but we don't feel excellent about the Chiefs. But generally speaking, Rashee Rice is a very clean projection. Only some concern for the injury and the suspension and that kind of thing, but generally not that big of a concern for me.
Devonte Smith, now the wide receiver one in Philadelphia. He's always been a good click where he's going, but he could be a great click where he's going because now he's actually the top receiver on his team. And if Jalen Hurts and Sean Payton in this scheme can kind of bounce back, I think we could be looking at a much higher ceiling for the Eagles passing game and for the pass volume of the Eagles passing offense as well. Chris Olave, I think he's got target and reception concerns because Jordan Tyson was a very good prospect unlike last season where Rashid Shaheed was traded away and Tyler Lockett kind of shocked the league. I don't know if we're going to get that same pure runout that we saw from Chris Olave down the stretch last season. And I do have some concern for injury, but definitely bullish news that they paid him yesterday. Big-time contract. Still a clean projection generally, but I think his ceiling is capped just a little bit by the quarterback play and by the fact that Jordan Tyson is now there.
Zay Flowers, we have um honestly if Lamar gets back to Lamar caliber and Zay Flowers plays like he did last year, he could easily be a league winner because he played like an 18-plus point per game receiver, only his quarterback played terrible and the Ravens offense wasn't good and they didn't throw the ball a lot. I tend to think that with Declan Doyle coming in as the new offensive coordinator from the Ben Johnson tree, generally that's a pretty high-paced offense. Generally, that's about a league-average pass rate. And that's a huge upgrade from what the Baltimore Ravens have been, which has been by far and away one of the lowest pass rate offenses in football and one of the slowest-paced offenses in football. So, if Flowers is going to go out there and play the way he did last season and also the offensive infrastructure around him improves, that's obviously good news, especially knowing that Jacoby Brissett and Mark Andrews are replacing two tight ends, Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely, who they let walk in free agency. That to me signals more pass volume incoming and that's good for Zay Flowers.
Malik Nabers is out there with no knee brace cutting, running, and jumping in training camp. So again, I'm concerned for the injury. I got to account for it somehow, but he's one of the best talents at the position. If he wasn't injured at all, he'd probably be going where Justin Jefferson is going at the end of the first round. So for him, the yards per route run, the Reception Perception, the fact that he's going to dominate his team's targets. There's nobody on that team that's going to sniff a 100 targets in my opinion, as much as Isaiah Likely and Mooney are decent players. This is Nabers' 30-plus% target share all day, every day, and twice on Sunday. The only question I have for Nabers is the injury and is the strength of the offense. Because conversely, I can't have the opinion about Baltimore's offense and then also say that Nabers is going to have a pass-heavy offense. No, John Harbaugh's coming in. They're probably going to go more run-heavy than they've been in recent years with Brian Daboll. So that's going to hurt Malik Nabers a little bit.
Amechi Igbuka pretty clean projection across the board. Definitely a good offensive line, an offense that I expect to bounce back biasly as a fan of this team. But the questions I have for Amechi Igbuka is he's a breakout candidate archetype. So he's not the best hit rate archetype as opposed to like Nabers and Flowers and Smith who've all been wide receiver ones before. But if you're going to bet on a breakout candidate, I think Igbuka has a lot of good bull signals being one that he played like a wide receiver one in fantasy for the first seven, eight games of the season last year when he was healthy, Baker was healthy, the offensive line was healthy, Bucky Irving, the running back was healthy, everything was going well for Igbuka to start the season and it just kind of fell off. He hit the rookie wall or whatever the case was. Um, but talent is the only question mark here. If you think he's a really talented player, there's no reason he can't have a league-winning season.
T. Higgins, very similar to George Pickens, just copy and paste. Great offense, great situation, great quarterback. The only problem here is the Bengals offensive line and the fact that Jamar Chase is going to command 170-plus targets. So, T. Higgins, unless Jamar were to go down, probably doesn't have 20-plus points per game in his range of outcomes, not all that dissimilar to George Pickens. Like I made mention to.
Ladd McConkey, very good projection across the board. I think the Chargers offense is going to be one of the best in football. I think Justin Herbert's going to play like an MVP candidate this year with Mike McDaniel coming in. The question for Ladd McConkey is okay, I gave him the benefit of the doubt that he can kind of dominate the targets here, but I'm not convinced 1,000% that he's going to have a 28-29-30% target share. I think him and QJ could be closer in target share than people think. Maybe 25 and 22% as opposed to 29% and 18% like maybe some people out there think. So, can Ladd McConkey command the requisite volume, 10-plus targets per game, sevenish receptions per game to command this kind of league-winning season? If you think he can, he's a really good bet to go after. But I do I should remind you that he's a breakout candidate. He's finished as a wide receiver two before, but he is not in his prime yet. So, he's still a year three player, which makes him still in the breakout candidate bucket. If you think he can break out and be the next JSN, I'm not going to argue with you because I think it's within the range of outcomes for him.
Moving into the wide receivers 19 through 27. Teddy Bridgewater McMillan, big problem for him is the offense and the quarterback play, but good rookie season. Hopefully he can build upon that. I tend to think that he is a good pick where he's going, but not a great pick where he's going. I don't think you're going to get a 20-point per game season ceiling out of Teddy Bridgewater McMillan without a major, major step forward from Bryce Young as a quarterback. Now, it sounds like he's playing well in camp. And if Bryce continues to get a positive drum beat or gets extended or something like that, I probably will move Teddy Bridgewater McMillan up towards the wide receiver 15 to 20 in my rankings. But right now, he's more of a backend wide receiver two. For me, he goes off the board wide receiver 19 on Underdog.
Garrett Wilson, I'm not going to do the thing that we always do for receivers with bad quarterback play where we say he has the best quarterback of his career because it's probably not true. True. I think Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson with Aaron Rodgers in 2024 was a wide receiver two in fantasy. So I don't think Geno Smith is all of a sudden some huge upgrade for him. I think Robert Saleh is a bad coach. I think Aaron Glenn is a bad coach. So Garrett Wilson can get to wide receiver one production on pure ability because he's that good. But I worry about the offensive points per game. I worry about the touchdown opportunities and I worry about the pass volume as well because I think they're going to be a run-heavy offense generally.
Jaylen Waddle. Oh man, this one lit up like a Christmas tree. The offense is going to be one of the best in the league in my opinion. I'm very high on the Broncos offense this year. The offensive line was ranked number one by every factor that you can look at. Football Outsiders, FTN, Sharp Football, you know, Mike Clay, whoever ranks offensive lines has the Broncos as the best in the league or one of the three best in the league. And also Jaylen Waddle is the best archetype of receiver you can be a prime wide receiver one. He's been a wide receiver one in fantasy before. Ironically, the last time he was the number one for his team since Tyreek Hill was in Miami, he had not been a wide receiver one much after that because he was the number two receiver. But now he's the number one receiver for the Denver Broncos. I think he's better than Courtland Sutton by a decent margin. Sutton's a good player, but Waddle definitely has more bull signals for wide receiver one in his range of outcome. So, he is somebody that I will spoil for you right now is going to score very highly in this.
Terry McLaurin. I worry a little bit that he's a trusty veteran archetype. Offensive line's not very good. I think this offense is somewhat built on a house of cards as well. They don't have a wide receiver two, three, four, or really a tight end that I believe in. And I know they signed Shazier Conque, but I don't love the weapons here. The running game not something super exciting. If they cook this year and are a top 12 offense, it will be all Jayden Daniels and probably all Terry McLaurin. So, that's a bull signal. He could score a lot of points because he gets a lot of volume. But I worry about the state of this offense in general. I think it could be somewhere halfway between 2024 and 2025. But if I had to lean towards one side or the other, I think it'll be closer to 2025 Washington than 2024 Washington when they were a breakout offense and one of the best teams in the league.
Luther Burden, good breakout candidate for sure. Um, offensive ranking points per game. No issues there. I think the quarterback play is going to be great. I think the pass volume is going to be fine. Target competition is an issue because I think both Cole Turner and Roman Wilson will have over a 100 targets this season. And also too, um, Luther Burden is so unproven, right? Like we can sit here and say he was a good prospect and he could take a step forward and all that kind of stuff, but we don't know for sure if Luther Burden is a great NFL fantasy receiver. He could easily be, you know, one of those receivers that we elevate because he's young and because he's a rookie breakout candidate like Xavier Worthy last year, for example, who just doesn't work out for fantasy. So I that's the floor with Luther Burden, but the ceiling is quite high.
Mike Evans, we know the touchdowns could be there, especially with the Ricky Pearsall injury. That's probably a boost to Mike Evans. They brought in Debo Samuel yesterday, but I think Pearsall was a bigger threat to his targets. Um, Brock Purdy is a great quarterback. The offense should be really solid still. The issue for Mike Evans is injury and the fact that he's a trusty veteran archetype, and those tend to bust a lot in the mid-rounds, especially him and Davante Adams both have that same issue. But the reason I like Davante Adams better is because I trust the Rams offense more than the 49ers. I trust Matthew Stafford slightly more than Brock Purdy. And I think the volume of pass attempts and pace is better in Los Angeles. So even though Evans is like the number one and Adams is the number two, Puka does so much and McVey does so much um with the offensive scheme and the pass volume that I think it's going to benefit Adams in a great way and that's why he scored 14 touchdowns last year.
So Jameson Williams and DJ Moore, positives and negatives. Obviously Jamo not going to have the requisite volume to be a 20-point per game receiver unless Amon-Ra were to go down with an injury like he did down the back half of the stretch um when Jamo was without Sam LaPorta in the lineup and Amon-Ra was banged up. We saw what Jamo can do as the number one receiver. However, the Lions offense is going to buoy you even though you're the number two receiver. So he's kind of like the discount version of George Pickens and T. Higgins in my mind. DJ Moore really good offensive situation. The problem I have with DJ Moore is is he still the same caliber of receiver that he once was when he has been a wide receiver one before. However, he's now over the age of 29. He hasn't really been that level of productive since 2023 when he had Justin Fields in Chicago. So, I think DJ Moore, if you wanted to say, I'm just going to trust the situation. He's Josh Allen's number one receiver. They have a good offensive line. They throw the ball quite a bit, and they're also going to well, they don't throw the ball quite a bit, but they should throw the ball a little bit more. Um, I think DJ Moore could end up smashing this year. I just think it would be pretty surprising given how DJ Moore has played the last couple of seasons.
Moving into the next group of wide receivers, wide receivers 28 through 36. Again, I'll try and highlight the guys that stand out as opposed to going through every individual case. Christian Watson, good volume, good breakout last year. Prime wide receiver two, because he finished as a wide receiver two. So, he's got some good things going for him. The Packers are a solid offense. He projects as their number one receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, lots of question marks because he's a rookie, but he does have touchdown upside given the type of player he is. He is projected to be the top option on the team. Although Wandale Robinson should command a lot of volume. My question is the offense. How good is Cam Ward going to be? How good is the offense going to be? And also, how good is Jaxon Smith-Njigba? That's the other part. When you're a rookie. Roman Wilson, very similar to Luther Burden. There's some question marks about volume and target competition. But I have more answers that Roman Wilson is a good NFL receiver than Luther Burden. I have a couple good games out of Luther Burden. I had a 10-week stretch last season where Roman Wilson was legitimately producing like a wide receiver one and he was a top 10 NFL draft pick. So, I think Roman Wilson is my preference of the two as I've talked about before, but if you guys are new around here, just coming back to the scene, I would fade Luther Burden in the fourth, fifth round to take Roman Wilson in the fifth, sixth round because I like the discount I'm getting and I do think Roman Wilson is more likely to be the better fantasy asset. Although, I do think Cole Turner could lead them in fantasy points overall at the tight end position.
Brian Thomas Jr., man, he doesn't belong here. I know it was bad last year and I know he was, you know, playing hurt and he looked terrible, but there's a lot of yeses on here. And there's one big green yes, which is that he's been a wide receiver one before and he's 24 years old. So, the fact that he plays for a good team, has a lot of target upside, has dominated this team's targets before, and the team projects to pass the ball quite a bit and that kind of thing, the only thing you can say against Brian Thomas Jr. is that he looked bad last year and he also has a lot of other mouths to feed in this offense. But if he's the best guy, he is going to lead this team in targets, no questions asked in my mind. So, I do believe he's one of the strongest picks in this range.
Jordan Tyson, similar to Tate, we just don't know how good he is because he's a rookie, but he had a good profile. He also is in an offense that projects to be uptempo, pass-heavy, and if Chris Olave were to go down for any reason, I think he could win people leagues. But without a Chris Olave injury, I don't think he has like a league-winning ceiling. Parker Washington, similar to Brian Thomas Jr., has good offensive situation. He's getting a lot of buzz in camp, but I don't think we have the requisite sample size of Parker Washington being a great player. So, the fact that Brian Thomas Jr. and him go right next to each other to me is just incorrect. I think Brian Thomas Jr. should go at least a round or two ahead of Parker Washington. And I personally still think that Travis Hunter and Jacoby Myers are all as good as Parker Washington, if not maybe even a little bit better in some areas. So, I think it will be Brian Thomas Jr. as the number one for this team and then the other guys will probably fall in line somewhere behind him.
Marvin Harrison Jr., some good bull signals. He's definitely in an offense that's going to throw the ball a lot. He's in an offense that has fed him touchdown volume before. And I think he's going to take a step forward as a player. And even last year when people think he was terrible, he was getting open. Matt Harmon's Reception Perception had him marked for an 80th percentile win rate against man and press coverage. The issue for him has been finding the soft spots in zone coverage. That's going to come with NFL experience and reps. And I do think he's going to have a better season this year than he's had so far in his career.
Malik Nabers, lots of good bull signals on the prospect profile and within the offense. I think the Eagles are going to be good. I think they're going to be more pass-heavy. And I also really love the offensive line and the role that Malik Nabers has because in a Sean Payton scheme, they're going to run the McVey and Shanahan stuff and Malik Nabers is a perfect fit for that. So, he's one of my favorite breakout candidates in the mid-rounds here.
Quentin Johnston, very similar to Ladd McConkey, is great offense, great quarterback. I love the scheme that they brought in with Mike McDaniel. The only problem is that Ladd McConkey is probably going to outtarget him. And Quentin Johnston doesn't have that proven track record even in three years versus two years of Ladd McConkey. That Ladd has that high-end production where he looked like a number one receiver. Ladd McConkey has more of that than Quentin Johnston. But I really like Quentin Johnston at cost right now.
The last group of guys I'll just breeze through really fast here. D.K. Metcalf, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Jaxon Reed, Jordan Addison, Chris Godwin, Downs, Wilson, and Pittman. The ones that are the most interesting to me are the receivers the Steelers receivers because I think they're going to be pass-heavy. And I also really like the pass production I've seen from both D.K. Metcalf, who's been a wide receiver one before. Michael Pittman, who's technically only been a wide receiver two at best, but he was wide receiver 13 in points per game. So, he was a fringe wide receiver one in his best season. I also like Chris Godwin to bounce back because we've seen the high-end production. And when Mike Evans is not in the lineup, which obviously he's not because he's on San Francisco now, he's been very, very good. Like a 15-point per game receiver over the last three years, not even including his early career production when he was a really good receiver. And Courtland Sutton, I think he's a good number two, but probably doesn't have the ceiling without a Jaylen Waddle injury. Addison, Reed, Pierce, Downs, Michael Wilson, all good options, all good depth receivers. I just wouldn't expect elite wide receiver one type ceilings. Michael Wilson maybe just because Marvin Harrison Jr. if he deals with injuries again. We know what that looks like. Michael Wilson was a wide receiver one down the stretch and does have a lot of positive bull signals as well.
So, here's what we're going to do. If you skip ahead to this part, we are going to score the wide receivers in ADP based on everything that they check the box for based on those league-winning signals. Five points for anything green, three points for anything yellow, minus one for anything orange, minus three for anything red. So, the good can outweigh the bad if you have a lot of things going for you. I did add the archetyping as part of the scoring, like I said, because prime wide receiver ones and prime wide receiver twos hit at the highest rate. Past fantasy production is our most strong indicator of future fantasy production. So, if you've been a top 24 receiver, a top 12 receiver in the past, that is very important. As much as we can love a breakout candidate, they haven't done it before. As much as we can love a trusty veteran, they're on the back half of their career, so they could always fall off. So, if I had done this exercise last year and added the archetyping in, JSN would have scored higher. George Pickens would have scored higher. Chris Olave would have scored higher. So that's why I added it in this season. It felt like the thing that was missing from this process last season.
So let's look at the first couple groups of guys. Wide receiver one through wide receiver 27. Who has the highest scores? What is the kind of the heat map lighting up? Purple is the best, green is the second best, yellow is the third best, orange is the second worst, and red is the worst. So guys that are in purple or green are your main targets in fantasy football drafts. Jamar Chase and Puka Nacua score the highest as expected. Next highest there is Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Justin Jefferson tied. No surprises there. Nico Collins, Devonte Smith, George Pickens, Zay Flowers all score over 30. So that's very positive that they could have some super, super high ceilings. Garrett Wilson also scoring over 20 despite being outside of the first two groups of players. That's obviously positive for him. But if we are going for the next Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which I think a lot of people are trying to find this year, it's Jaylen Waddle, man. Jaylen Waddle at 36 scores more points here than CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, A.J. Brown, and a ton of other guys that are going way ahead of him. It's an elite team. It's an elite offensive line. I think Bo Nix is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the league. High pass volume, a prime wide receiver one who's done it before, who plays for Sean Payton and is finally the number one receiver for the first time since his rookie season. This chart highlights in general how strong a lot of the cases are for these wide receivers, but Jaylen Waddle has to be in my mind one of the biggest winners of this exercise.
Moving into the next group of guys, and again, I want to recalibrate expectations here. This group of guys is very unlikely to produce a 20-point per game scorer. However, could they be a Olave or Pickens from last year, be a mid-round receiver rounds 5 through 8 or whatever these guys are being drafted, and be a 16-point per game producer, a 17-point per game producer, and be a wide receiver one in fantasy? Brian Thomas Jr. scores the best here. He's the only guy in green. He would be my pick for this year's Chris Olave or George Pickens. Too much proven production already to ignore in my mind. Yes, target competition this and target competition that, but rookie year Brian Thomas Jr., If he plays like that, and that's the key phrase here, if he plays like that, he's the best receiver on the team and everybody else falls in line behind him, he's still very young. Great quarterback that he's got throwing him the ball. Great offensive environment, great scheme, improving offensive line, Brian Thomas Jr., the biggest winner from this group. Number two scorer on here is Roman Wilson. For me, the most proven of the Bears pass catchers, including Cole Turner and Luther Burden. Shout out also to Christian Watson, who scores pretty good. Michael Wilson who scores pretty good. QJ and Michael Pittman for the highest scores in this round five to eight range. That should highlight some big targets for you guys in your fantasy drafts. I'm going to be taking a lot more of those guys. They pop as really solid picks where they're going.
Marvin Mai Lemon score eight. So they just miss being yellow or higher because you need to be at least at 10 for that. They pop as good breakout candidates or the best breakout candidates in this range outside of Roman Wilson who obviously scores a little bit higher than them. So, even though Michael Wilson scores higher than Marvin Harrison, I think Marvin Harrison's ceiling is higher. So, it all depends on what you're looking for in that area of the board. But, there's plenty of people out there that would say, "Why would I draft Marvin Harrison in round six when I can get Michael Wilson in round eight who's much more proven than Marvin Harrison?" Totally reasonable argument. I personally like Marvin Harrison a little bit better, but I'm going to, this exercise has opened my eyes up a little bit to how good Michael Wilson actually projects, and I'm going to need to start taking more of him.
So let's talk about the question I posed at the beginning of this video. My top three picks for the question, who is the next league-winning wide receiver? Let's start with the first lens, which is we're looking for a 20-plus point per game in PPR leagues receiver. I'm going to exclude Chase and Puka because they are too obvious in my mind. They are a very high chance of being the guys you need in the first round. And I feel like I was one of the only people saying that about Puka Nacua last year and it ended up being true. My number one pick for the guys you need in the first one, two, and three rounds where you're most likely to find a 20-plus point per game receiver. My number one pick Amon-Ra St. Brown, man. Such a clean projection. Elite team, elite offense, elite schedule, dome games, everything that you want. Such a crystal-clear projection. He's durable. He's always a wide receiver one. Amon-Ra St. Brown. If you're in the mid-first round and Devonte Smith, my number two picks for kind of the next league winner, top 20-point per game, guys. Clear number ones for their teams. Good offenses, good schemes. I think they could surprise some people. I think the Texans could be better than people think on offense. I think the Eagles could be better than people think on offense. And for my money, Nico Collins and Devonte Smith are two of the best 10 to 12 receivers in football. Even though Smith was a number two for a long time, he was every bit as good as A.J. Brown in a lot of regards. So, I think the Nico and Devonte Smith are very, very good picks as well. Where they're currently going around the early the late second for Nico, the early third for Devonte Smith.
This year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba pick for me is Jaylen Waddle. So, he would be my number one answer as far as value is concerned, but he's my number three answer here. Dominant team, great offensive line, good offensive play caller, good to great quarterback play. As I said with Bo Nix, I think he's a sneaky MVP candidate this year. High volume. They threw 612 times with an elite defense last year. I don't think that's changing. Clear alpha on this team. As solid as Courtland Sutton is, so those are my three picks for the 20-plus point per game receivers. Waddle is my pick for the true league winner though because he is going in like the fourth round. So if you get a 20-point per game season out of him, he would crush his ADP. The other guys, honorable mentions, Amechi Igbuka, Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, and Ladd McConkey. They could also be this year's JSN as well if things go right for them.
The second lens, the three picks for the Olave and Pickens types who are mid-round receivers who produce like wide receiver ones. Number one, Brian Thomas Jr., elite pass production, still young, he's now healthy, great offense and quarterback. Number two, Roman Wilson. He was on his way to smashing last year pre-injury. And it's like nobody cares. Everybody forgets because Luther Burden and LaPorta looked good at the end of the season that they weren't even starters for the team when Roman Wilson was dominating. Great offense, great scheme, quarterback expected to make the leap and somehow Roman Wilson is the cheapest pass catcher on this team and I have no concern for the injury anymore. He's already come out and said he feels great and he feels fine. Michael Pittman Jr. would be my third answer, but Michael Wilson an honorable mention. Pass-heavy approach coming with Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh. Michael Pittman was nearly a wide receiver one earlier in his career and a very consistent wide receiver two in fantasy. He reminds me a lot of the Chris Olave case from last year where he's kind of just being overlooked. I think he can clear D.K. Metcalf and catch his targets and yards easily because he is the perfect PPR chain mover for a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers who likes to get the ball out quick. So those are the three guys that I'm really heavily targeting as well.
This is my strategy and this is one of my most [clears throat] important parts of this video. The strategy at wide receiver this year is pretty simple to me. The wide receiver position has value pockets everywhere. First round, second round, third round, fourth round, fifth round, sixth round. There is targets that I like in every single round. So that's whether you're anchoring with a Chase, Puka, St. Brown, or somebody in round one. You're grabbing a A.J. Brown, a Nico Smith or a Rice at the two-three turn, or you're hammering profiles like Waddle, Flowers, T. Igbuka, swinging on Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson in the round three to four range. Upside candidates like BTJ, Roman Wilson, the Cardinals receivers, Christian Watson, uh, Michael Pittman in the mid-rounds. Take receivers a lot. Take a lot of receivers. That is my advice here. As I said in the quarterback and in the tight end video, the reason I'm not taking early-round quarterback or early-round tight end is because I am taking a lot of running backs and receivers early and often. In the video that we did on Friday, breaking down the draft strategies, balanced was our number one strategy. I would ideally like to come out of the first six rounds with three running backs and three receivers. I'd like to come out of the first eight rounds with three running backs or four running backs and four or five receivers. I think that loading up on the flex positions is the optimal play this year because quarterback is deep and tight end is deep. So for me, I'm taking my swings wherever. And also another piece of advice too, if you take safe projections in one round, go on and take a breakout candidate in the next round. But don't load up on either or. Don't just take only safe guys all the way down your wide receiver core. Don't just take only risky guys going down your wide receiver core. An example of this would be let's say you take Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first round. Very safe projection. Maybe you go into the third round and you grab Ladd McConkey or Amechi Igbuka. Little bit more of a risky projection. In the fourth round you grab uh let's say Davante Adams. Little safer of a projection. Then you go in round seven and you grab Marvin Harrison Jr. A little bit more of a risky projection. So again, build a complimentary wide receiver core this year.
Hopefully you guys got some value from this video. I think that this is one of the most valuable videos out there on fantasy YouTube for wide receivers. It'll be coming at you next Saturday for running backs as well. If you enjoyed, leave a like, subscribe. Again, appreciate you guys for getting us to 80,000 subscribers. 100,000 is next. Go and hit the subscribe button if you're not already subscribed. About 40-50% of you guys aren't. Subscribers win championships around here. And again, if you want all of our bonus content because you feel like you got some value in today's video, and I know that you did, head on over to flockfantasy.com. We have tools to help you win your league. Whether it's all of our draft guides from all your favorite creators, my fantasy football projections, those are all live and up to date. Our consensus ADP so that no matter what platform you're playing on, you understand where players are going. Our consensus rankings, our expert rankings are refined daily. And you can also sort specifically by my rankings, specifically by Danny's rankings. You can get an FSE consensus on the site as well. If you go to our draft sheets, let's say you play in a league that isn't full PPR, it's standard. It's a 12-team league. It's a three wide receiver start and it has two flexes. You're going to get a different set of rankings than you would have gotten in a 12-man full PPR bog-standard format. So definitely check out all that stuff. You can do mock drafts on our site against whatever ADP source you want to do it on. So, if you go to a draft simulation or a lobby, you can see you can draft against the Sleeper ADP, the ESPN ADP, the Flock Fantasy Expert rankings, and you can also do research. Our best ball tool is live right now. And again, as I made mention to earlier in the video, if you guys want our draft assistance, so you can go into your Sleeper draft with a window open that shows our exact rankings, who we would be picking on the board specific to Sleeper ADP, that is available. All of everything I just said, season pass, $34 covers you for the entire year. All of our content, all of your favorite creators' content. And again, if for whatever reason you want to sign up on Underdog to get that stuff instead, you can go to Underdog Fantasy, use the promo code FSE, compete in some big contests. They have small $1, $3, $5 contests right now to get your feet wet. Head on over to Underdog, use our promo code FSE, and you'll get all of our bonus content for the year for free. That's our weekly start-sit rankings in season. Both of our draft guides, dynasty and rookie draft guide, um, from May, and then our redraft guide, which is live right now, and our 2026 projections. All of that for free when you sign up with promo code FSE. Both of those will be linked down below in the description and the pinned comment. Peace out, and I'll talk to you soon.