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Crimea Without Gas? Crisis or Media Noise — Krapivnik & Sleboda

Stanislav Krapivnik24:53

Transcription

You know, my question is, where does the US economy go where a gallon of gasoline costs the same as much as you earn a minimum wage for an hour of work, and everybody's in cars to get to wherever they're going? So, no public transportation for the most part. What do you do then?

"You immigrate to Russia. That's what you do if you're smart."

"Yeah, exactly. Uh, I did that. I moved here more than 20 years ago. So, oh, 16. Best move I ever made. Never, never been back. Never will go back. So, haven't been back since 2018. Uh, yeah. So, about eight years ago."

"And it was, you know, I um my parents were, I was staying at my parents' house and and they were in the middle, they're staying in Russia getting their paperwork done, and I was talking to their neighbors. And, you know, I, you know, I worked in a time in the American uh corporate structures where you, you think through every word you're about to say 20 times because, you know, God knows if anybody's even slightly offended, that'd be a career ender. And you get the Russian, and you can talk normally, which, by the way, those people like to be able to express themselves. And so I'm talking to them and I'm, I'm thinking I'm holding back. I'm, I'm, you know, uh, reserving my words, and I look at their faces and I figure out, no, no, no, no, no, no. What I'm thinking is, you know, I'm, I'm holding back to them. They're just in shock, right? Because, you know, you're, you're talking uh, it's like, you know, at that point I was like, I would never be able to survive in an American corporate culture again. They'd fire me. I mean, it's just, and I don't want to live like that, you know, where you got to be afraid of every word you say. It's, it's not a life."

"But I'm going to make a prediction."

"No, go ahead. Go ahead."

"People think I'm sarcastic when I say that I wanted to live in a free country. When when I when I moved to Russia instead of the US, they think they think I'm being facetious or sarcastic or something. I'm not. I'm I'm going to make a prediction for the summer. I'm going to predict, and you tell me what you think, that uh by the middle of August, particularly the third week of August, Russia's going to run out of uh pro and all the Russians are going to be running away from Crimea."

"Yeah, it happens every year, you know, when when everybody goes."

"I mean, there is a gasoline shortage uh of a minor level every year in Crimea. Yep."

"Because it's vacation season, and every Russian in that part, you know, from Moscow on down drives to Crimea, right? Or to, you know, the the Krasnodar Krai, you know, somewhere in the south there, right? Uh, to to have a a vacation on the beach, right? If they're not flying to Turkey or, you know, wherever else. And every year there's a run on gasoline because everyone's filling up and uh there the the huge influx of tourists during the summer. Yeah. Is still uh uh not compensated for by the local infrastructure. Whether there are KV regime attacks on 1% of cars on the highway through there, nothing. It's it's all just noise. It's all it's all just noise. And we heard the same thing last year. You, if you'll remember, right? They took advantage of that to claim that there was some great shortage of of gasoline in Russia because they found a couple of gas stations in Crimea that didn't have and and completely neglected the fact that that is a result of the summer rush and that it was a handful of stations and so forth. Why? Because it fit the narrative that they wanted to believe that they wanted to pedal, and it has zero effect on on on reality. And I have family there, right? So I know what the real situation is, and it's not like what they say. And in 24, by the way, we had the same shortage, and in 23, we had the same shortage. Amazingly. I know I know like clockwork."

"But do you you notice what's not in the news, the Western news, let me phrase that at all?"

"Um, about the uh bus full of complete civilians from Moscow to Simferopol that was hit by a K regime drone and and uh I mean, like directly targeted, not not mistaken, not not debris. Yeah, directly targeted and just killed uh what seven people uh yesterday?"

"Seven or eight and 11 wounded. Well, I wasn't referring to that, but yeah, that's one of those things that'll never make the the Western news. I I put it up in my updates so people can see. And yeah, I got the video from it from one of the security cams. And I mean, it's absolutely just. And it hit it uh it hit it uh in the back left side. Uh, so, you know, this wasn't an accidental. Oh, something popped up in the way of the drone?"

"No."

"No, no. The uh the other big news that is absolutely being ignored. Konstantinovka. Yeah, that that is a that is another big one. Completely. They're not talking about it at all."

"Hey, they just quietly admitted in the last couple of weeks, seven months after the fact that Pokrovsk fell. So, what what do you expect of them uh at at this point? You know, they're not going to admit Konstantinovka for again another half a year after it actually falls. And and uh we'll we'll we'll be halfway through uh uh Kramatorsk and on our way uh and and Sloviansk at that point, and before they ever admit that Konstantinovka fell. So, but yeah, the the defenses there are crumbling. Uh, the logistics have been all but completely uh cut. Uh, and uh forces are it is trapped in Konstantinovka are effectively in a cauldron, and and uh some forces a bit further to the east also as well. And at the same time, Ryzhivka is also the defenses there are collapsing just a bit further to the north, which puts Russian forces past the the last suburb community before uh Kramatorsk proper. So."

"It's all it's all rolling together now. Everyone's like, 'Oh, the Russian spring offensive had no effect.' Yeah. Oh, oh, wait a minute. What's that tidal wave building up cresting right now?"

"But yeah, they'll keep ignoring it because according to what they were saying just a week ago, Ukraine's winning on the they've turned the tide. They're winning on the battlefield, right?"

"Wait, how many times have they turned the tide already? That's like every other week they turn the tide."

"What? The Institute for the Study of War tells us that um the Kyiv regime has taken more territory than the Russians have. Uh, in the last month. Where where did they do that?"

"Look, there's a drone. There's a drone hitting an oil storage tank. Look."

"I mean, that's the kind of nonsense we're fed."

"I'll give the Ukrainians this. In Zaporizhzhia, they've taken back not a small piece of territory, but the problem is is they use up so many men and material to do it, they can't hold it. They can push through and then they're stuck. They they surged troops into an area that we just took and turned it back into a gray zone. Right?"

"That is what they that is what they did. You want to get counting territory, right? That's that's it."

"They never took all of Mala Tokmachka. They turned it into a gray zone, right?"

"And uh for a couple of months that that was all that they did. And and anything else is is just nonsense. Well."

"It's the same thing as Kupiansk. They took all the Kupiansk. Well, except for that area, that area, that area."

"Yeah. That area."

"For some reason, the Russian soldiers have flagged that area."

"Suddenly, the Russians are back in complete control, and everyone just moves on and talks about something else."

"Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Well, they are mining the roads uh in the south. I had some friends who just came back. They're also former military. They're doing a run to Zaporizhzhia and the car in front of them blew up on a mine because they just they do remote mining of uh the uh Rostov-Mariupol road to kill what's 95% of traffic civilians. So they're just killing civilians."

"Yeah. It's just political terror. I mean, it's quite intentional. It's."

"Oh, absolutely. They don't have any chance of winning on the battlefield. They're they're they're quite open this. Everything is dirty war, right? Uh, David Ignatius admitted that in the Washington Post uh more than a year ago, and the New York Times brought it up again this week. They can't win on the battlefield. So, you know, you want to call it asymmetric warfare, US military, US Army calls it unconventional warfare, right? Whatever you want to call it, um, dirty war, right? That is it's only going to accelerate. It's only going to get worse. It's going to get nastier. It's going to get more frequent because it's out of desperation. Uh, and as as Russia continues to slowly grind them away on the battlefield, you know, eight, 10 settlements a week uh and um uh, you know, however many uh, you know, manpower gets ground away every week. Uh, that's that's what they will turn to because from the beginning of the conflict, they never had any hope of beating Russia militarily. They wanted to create a political crisis in Russia where they the people turned against the government and turned against the special military operation and forced the government to collapse. That was their only hope from the beginning. That was the intention with the the sanctions war that was supposed to end it. Only it didn't quite turn out their way. Their sanctions didn't reduce the ruble to rubble. They didn't do anything. In fact, it in most ways, they just made the Russian economy stronger. And um, that that is the same situation today. Every time they hit a a a girl's uh a school dormitory in Luhansk or a busload of people uh uh with a drone or a car runs over a remote mine, you know, on a on a highway in is that Russia, all they do is increase the fury of the Russian people and the demands that Putin uh uh escalate the war against. That's the only result it has. It's it's this type of of terror."

"And uh one one detail that a lot of people missed out of the whole uh start of Bilsk thing, right? You know, and the argument was made, did they hit it intentionally? Was it an AI targeting error?"

"Yeah."

"Yeah."

"Yeah. 16 drones. It wasn't. Well, was it an AI targeting error? No one says it was just a one drone mistake, right? You know, was it an AI targeting error or did they hit it intentionally? Well, in the days after it happened, all of the teachers, the professors at that uh university, that that college in uh uh Starobelsk were put on the Miritz kill list curated by the K regime's Interior Ministry because the teachers there had corrupted the minds of young Luhansk. Ukrainians, right? And made them into Russians, right? So, uh, you know, over identity, right? And so, uh, when I read stuff like that, while it might have initially seemed that an AI targeting error was a possible, a plausible and a Occam's razor solution. When I then see the professors there, the teachers there put on the Miritz kill list, then I don't have any doubt that it was intentional."

"Absolutely. And there were reports that there were recon drones flying over for about half a day before the strikes uh in that area. So."

"But you know, I I'm on Miritz. Uh, a lot of people I'm I'm pretty sure you probably are, too."

"If you're not on Miritz, what what the hell are you doing?"

"Oh, yeah. Yeah. But what what I what I love about Miritz, it's uh is uh you know where the servers are located?"

"Langley, Virginia, for those who don't know."

"Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Right beside DIA. So, so, so let me put this in terms for the audience if you haven't gotten it yet. The United States government's proxy has a murder, death, kill list that's registered in Virginia that has lots of American citizens on it. Translation, the United States government."

"Roger Waters is on there, right? I mean, John is on there. I mean, come on."

"The Pope is on there, by the way."

"The Pope is. Yeah. So, in other words, the United States government, be it the Democrats or Republicans, really don't mind their proxies murdering American citizens. Let that sink in."

"You know, LRA Garcia Garcia Ler Garcia Garcia Ler."

"Gonzalo Ler."

"Gonzalo Ler. Oh yeah, I'm I'm horrible with names. Yeah. No. Has Okay, fine. Biden has anybody in Trump administration uh asked about, you know, why what conditions he died under? No, nobody gives a name. American citizen. Sad."

"Did you see the uh uh the woman with unfortunate looks uh Laura Loomer and her comments toward Kaden Owens and and uh uh Tucker Carlson?"

"I don't I don't wallow in that filth. I I stay well clear of it. She she has labeled them because they came to Russia and because they don't support Israel's genocide. And she's got Trump's ear, interesting enough. She she goes and sees Trump. Um, she's labeled them as Islamic Communist supporters, and the MAGA crowd buys it up."

"Whatever. They're."

"Yeah."

"They're idiots through and through. So I I I don't."

"Yeah."

"You know."

"And they're even more stupid and gullible than the US electorate usually is. So."

"If if it was just a woman blogger saying something that, who gives a damn? But when it's a person that can get quite literally get to the president and have conversations with him, and she's gotten uh quite a few uh security officials fired to get her pro-Israeli people in. Um, yeah, she's got influence. Unbelievable as it is. Uh, which says, what does that say about the US presidency? But something like that has influence. Now, one thing I got to say is this. There are are some levels of of the Russian government, and I know this certainly isn't universal throughout the Russian government, but there's some levels where they keep trying to reach out to the the American Trumpist right believing that they can somehow influence them or cut a deal or or whatever. And uh so uh I did catch that at this uh St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that again, I could give two shits about, but um that two people that I I mean, I've heard the names before. I have no idea who they are, and I I don't want to know who they are, but um evidently invited by whoever in the government arranges this um this uh uh networking opportunity in in St. Petersburg invited the Tate brothers."

"Oh god. Yeah, I saw that. Jesus, that is."

"And I don't know who they are, but when Rebar, whom I did read, tells me that that they are wanted on charges of running underage prostitution rings in Eastern Europe. Um, but the Russian government was inviting these two um."

"I I jackasses uh as some type of soft influence operation. I'm like."

"You know, it's on the same level as when they try to court Musk's father, who, by the way, Musk despises. Because if we told him around, he said a few good things about Russia, we can get Elon Musk in. Like, do you have any clue how much what their relationship is?"

"Musk will not."

"Yeah. Tate is the the Yeah, I saw the video where they came in and they're Ka'ak dancers. uh they came in. It's like, of all the friggin people they could invite."

"It's just just."

"I I understand that this um uh African-American um religious conservative Candace Owens, whatever you may think about her, and I don't really know anything about her, but she seems to be mostly above the ward. Yeah, above, you know, the the scandal level that she doesn't have underage prostitution rings she was involved in or anything like that. Okay, so you know that. Okay, maybe. And evidently Laura Luma doesn't like her either. Um, and then there's some kind of social media war going on, and and, you know, I'm I I can't be bothered. I don't have enough time for for that nonsense. But um, yeah, I there's there's a reason why I'm not much concerned with the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum at any level, but when I see that Russia invited the Tate brothers there, again, not fully knowing who they really are, I'm a little I'm a little nauseated. I'm I'm a little nauseated."

"Yeah, I was too. Gel Demetri wants to once again try to reclaim some type of uh relevance and and whatever by singing to Trump one more time on social media. I think I'm going to hurl. I think."

"I've already been hurling. The bag's full. I'm losing weight at this point. Yeah, I stopped reading his stuff because it's just like."

"Well, I mean, okay, Demetri, his background is Goldman Sachs. Yeah. Yeah. Let's make clear Karel Demetriov is not a member of the Russian government in any way, shape, or form. He runs a private or heads up a private investment fund that is, you know, roughly analogous to the American Chamber of Commerce in some ways, right? He he he doesn't represent the Russian government when he speaks. He was briefly had some type of relevance as Putin's equivalent to Witoff, right? Uh, to to for back channel communications. But since it seems even Putin has given up on that um spirit of Anchorage nonsense that that that Kel Demetrius uh sell-by-date has long since passed, and he's just trying to to to keep relevance, and he's nobody."

"Yeah, he is. You're you're absolutely right. But he gets in the West, they they of course told him, right? But the tape, you know, I I listened to these uh to the the older one. Anyways, I listened to him about two or three times. I just ran across some uh shorts on YouTube from him. It was enough to tell that, you know, yeah, the the bile was coming up in the back of my throat listening to him. It's like, yeah, okay, this is pretty much a scum. A scum that made some money and now is stoning. And to see him get invited. I mean, you want to talk about a breakdown in communications, whoever did that needs to get slapped uh out of their position. I mean, that's that's just."

"Yeah, someone think about it. Someone invited them to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and not you."

"I know. I tried, but you know, 16 thou what was that? $60,000 or $18,000? $1.6 million rubles is like, yeah, it's a little rich for my pocket. Even even though Newsweek says I do have breakfast with Trump with uh Lady Ladim Rich once in a while, and he throws me a bag of money. I learn so many new things when when I get occasionally mentioned somewhere like, whoa, really? Wow, I need to check the stocks guy out now. He seems to be pretty well off. So yeah, other than that, yeah, they Tate, Musk senior, like God, you know, at least pay a little attention to who you're inviting. Uh, it's am it's a amateur hour when they do things like that that doesn't help."

"Hey, but it's all through. I mean, look at look at Russian state media channels in the English language and look at some of the people they hire to do their information warfare."

"Um, I'm I'm gonna stop there. Out of self-interest. Uh, but yeah."

"I I know where this is going. So, yeah. Yeah."

"Yeah, you're right. You're you're absolutely right. Um, like I said, I don't I don't know. I It's this I don't have an answer for that. It It's just I I want to say it's just stupid bureaucracy, but I don't think it is just stupid. Uh."

"Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I mean, there there might be some bureaucracy involved, but it's it's not the bureaucracy's fault. It's the the human stupidity fault that that that encompasses it there. And it exists in Russia, too. I think there's less of it than in the United States. In fact, I'm sure of it. But it doesn't mean we're completely immune to it either."

"No. No, we're not. You know, the 2020 271 Laura Loomer will be walking in. Oh god, I hope we don't go that far. But uh yeah, you know, but yeah, that that's that's where we're at. Mark, want to thank you for uh for coming on the call. Always a pleasure. It's always entertaining and informative, and everybody loves it. So, we'll we'll keep on grinding. And by the way, interesting fact that they won't tell you. Uh, Dzhinka, which is south of um Kramatorsk, once Konstantinovka falls. Sorry. He can really flank right around the Oh, yeah. Oh, come to come in from behind."

"Yeah, they're not going to talk about that."

"Not gonna talk about any until it's already well well months months past the date. So."

"A year later. Yeah. Well, because they did mention, by the way, uh last week uh they mentioned that uh we may have to leave uh uh Marinka. Yeah. Jimmy."

"We may have to leave Marinka."

"May have to leave that, you know. Uh, six months too late anyway."

"Yeah."

"Just two Russian American Russian vets chewing the geopolitical fat."

"And there's so much fat. Well, hey, next week maybe more exciting, you know, when when Trump."

"Salad chewing the geopolitical salad."

"Salad. Yeah. With a little uh hot on there and a little black bread and a piece of onion. Yeah, it's great. Or garlic. Yeah, it's always great. Everybody, thank you. Uh, thank you for joining the call. Uh, and we'll see you on the next."