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81

White swan27:10

Transcription

Hello again everyone. I hope that you guys had a wonderful trading week thus far. Although you guys followed your rules, I hope that you guys used proper risk management, right? You know, a few of you guys are sending me, you know, your wins, but when I look at, you know, the profit that you're pulling and the size of your account, it doesn't add up, you know. Some of you are getting like 40% in a day. This I saw one person that has like 63% with one trade, you know, in profit. Come on, man. No, you can't do that because not every day is going to be a winning day, right? That's something that you need to understand. Not all of your trades will be winners.

So here you guys can see that all of the, you know, liquidity insertions, the engineered liquidity has been injected into the market so far for this week, right? And something that I haven't really talked about, I'm not sure if I have, I don't think I have. This is something that, you know, you should write down. And it should be obvious, right? This should be pretty obvious or some of you guys should already know this by now, you know, due to how, you know, we have our system, how we do things here. Any day, the days, you know, whereas we deem as high probability, you know, which are usually days which have, and just because, you know, we say there is high probability, that's all that's all it is. High probability, something can, could happen, might, more than likely will happen in this day, you know, that will allow us to, you know, get in sync with price action, right? That's it's just a probability. Some days nothing will happen. Price will just move. Some days price will just completely go in the opposite direction of what you're anticipating to happen. And some days you will expect something to happen. Even some weeks you'll expect something to happen and it just will not. Right? That's all normal. All right? We are not fortune tellers here. Not all of us. Right? We are just reading price with knowledge that we have. That's all we're trying to anticipate price action, you know, at, you know, some degree, right? We're using technicals and time.

So, here you can see Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, right? And the high of the week, um, occurred, you know, I believe for the euro and I think current for GBPUSD, even though it's currently consolidating it. It occurred on Wednesday for euro and for Tuesday, I believe it was for GBPUSD. The low of the week for the dollar index was Wednesday, right? Which was yesterday, you know, which is why I chose this day due to the fact that, you know, usually after we have, and this usually happens, right? Whenever you have a higher time frame such as a weekly sequential SMT, you know, which was prior to CPI, then the expansion will usually come the day after, which is why we waited for today to see that price actually drop, right? You know, this morning is when we actually got some volatility, right? Which, you know, which is something that is, you know, not always going to happen, right? I believe that that happens like less than 40% of the times. Like usually the volatility insertion usually occurs on the day on which we have CPI, but, you know, it delayed and it happened today, which is, you know, something that we expected.

Days which have high news events, right? Uh, they can be deemed as, you know, I'm just going to use a term, you know, for, you know, everyone's sake, so you don't have too much stuff in your minds, a kill zone for sequential SMT, right? Do you understand? So the session which you have that news coming out, and, you know, this could even be for, you know, news for the Japanese, you know, yen, I believe that's what it is, you know, could be for cable, it could be for the Aussie, could be for gold, right? And for gold, of course, you're going to use the news for the Aussie, right? Due to the fact that they're closely correlated and, you know, the Australian economy highly, you know, depends on gold anyways. So depending on the time, you know, the quarter, whereas you have this type of news event, that's when you should expect, you know, sequential SMT to form. That's when you should expect a major high to form, right? That's where you should expect a short-term high or a long-term high. Right? And for example, you know, the last quarter of this year, I believe we have US elections. So, we should expect, you know, a tremendous amount of volatility then, right? It's just an example, right? And if you know that quarter delays, it should be in the next one. Just as how we saw what happened this week, what happened? Yesterday and today, right? Yesterday CPI is, you know, the data was released yesterday, but the movement was delayed until today, the day with the day or the quarter which followed, you know, whereas we had scheduled news events to be released.

Here, looking at the index futures triad, right? You can see that, uh, we believe while we were here, we wanted to see sequentialism, you know, if we were going to see price pullback in the range, we did not see that, right? And, you know, the weird thing about it, or, you know, it's not really, it's not weird. It would be weird to, you know, some of you guys, but, you know, the, I just say strange thing about it is that, you know, we have the dollar index, you know, going up, we have the euro dropping, while we have the index futures tribes just expanding, right? Also, and I'm not going to show that right now. If you guys want to see that, you can check it, right? I don't want to make the video too long. I don't want to be talking about things that, you know, make no sense. I just want to get straight to the point. The interest rate triads, right? They're moving the total opposite direction of the index futures tri, right? Which is, you know, not something that you want to see, you know, whenever we have symmetrical price action. Something to note, right? Is that, and this is something that you're going to realize, the index futures trades sometimes they like to be independent. So what does that mean? There are times when, you know, they will just completely just do whatever they want to, right? But if you, if there's anything, any asset that you can count on, what would it be? Of course, it's the forex market. The forex market, you know, it's more organic, I would say, than the index futures, right? These markets are more manipulated, right? Because this is this right here that you're seeing, right? If you guys remember, right? Whenever we have clean price action, what's usually there? It's usually that we have the index, we should chart just move moving in tandem with the great British pound and the euro, and the great British pound is expanded, while the euro is expanding, and while the dollar index is moving in the opposite direction of the euro and the great British pound, right? Here that's not the case.

So, here you can see that I have this high highlighted, this one as well, right? Not really paying much attention to this one, right? So if there's a precision swing point, you know, that occurs after price runs about this high, then it would, you know, be of importance to me, right? I'll report it back to you guys, of course, and we would, you know, have a discussion about it. And if this, you know, lag of price action fails to break above this high, there's a pre-swing point here, then I would expect some first all within the range. But for now, that's it until we have, you know, these just moving in tandem and just, you know, just stop doing whatever they are doing.

Another thing to note is that, you know, in low pro price press action, you usually have the US dollar, right? Consolidating while we have, I believe I spoke about this before, while we have the index futures tried expanding, right? So this usually expands, while that's why it seems as if, you know, well, that's why this happens. Why the indices strides move more than the forex market? Because forex market spends more time in consolidation than this market, right? Just as the crypto market spends more time in consolidation than the forex market here, right?

You can see this setup, the one I think the trade that I posted today and a lot of people saw, right? This is exactly what we were talking about. You know, this was more clear-cut than, you know, anything else that we were talking about and just more obvious. So, what did we expect sequential to occur here? First of all, this was a two-state sequential. So, this was very, and I'll say it again, you know, this was high probability. Did it move a lot? It moved enough. This is, you know, this is the 4-hour time frame we're talking about. If you got an entry on the 15-minute time frame, even the five, even the one-hour time frame, you know, it's easy to pull three R from this from here, right? This high to this low. Even if you traded the, you know, great British pound and you took something off here below this low before price, you know, retraded here to take you out at your stop loss, you would have gotten something. And, you know, if some of you guys were cheeky, chose to trade the cuz there's one of you that absolutely loves this for some reason. I don't know why I was sending them charts of the dollar index, but, you know, to each their own.

Anyways, here at the low, you can see what that's a that's sequential SMT right here. So here the dollar failed to break below this low, also failed to close below this close at the same time, which makes this even more high probability. Take note of what I just said. This low, this candle right here, what is that? You already know it's a precision swing point, right? Precision swing point here and then here again, we have this precision swing point. If you take note of this precision swing point right here, you'll realize that it's below, you know, this candle right here to this high. So, this was Wednesday's high, right? Which was yesterday. Price failed to break above here. This was another sequential SMT, a lower time sequential SMT, which would have been, you know, stage two, which was caused by this precision swing point. So this three stages right here, it would be here monthly cycle sequential SMT followed by precision swing point, which led to the weekly cycle sequential SMT. Are you following? So yes, again, this is the 4-hour time frame, but once you see this happen, this candle right here form, right? That's it. And this is exactly what we want to see, isn't it? We want to see price either run above this high, and it does not matter what really happens, right? And also always remember that you need to place more importance and on the euro and the dollar index, right? Not the great British pound, right? Is not of that high importance, right? And usually the euro will deliver more than the great British pound. And euro is more sure than the great British pound, as you've been seeing happening for the past weeks, right? We had the euro dropping while the dollar index was dropping at the same time. That was low probability, but we still had, well, what did I just say? Let me repeat that. We saw the great British pound dropping GU while the US dollar index was dropping. That was low probability, but still we had the euro moving in lockstep with the US dollar, which is what usually happens, right? So these pairs are, you know, just as I've said before, you know, you could relate them to the, you know, the price action that occurs between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, right? The great British pound, even though, right? There are times when it is tradable. Of course, it is. And this is one of the reasons, right? And he never talks about it, you know, um, Michael is why he stays with the the euro. And even though, you know, the great British pound quote unquote may offer you more pips or whatever, which doesn't really matter. Doesn't matter what offers you more pips or what moves more, just, you know, how safe will your stop be? That's what matters. How safe will your stop? Which one is more high probability? Most of the times, right? You're not dependent on old moves to, you know, just just look at old moves. You need to be reading, you know, current price action, sees what happens, it usually happens, okay, then, you know, this is going to be a part of my plan.

So again, right? This is pretty simple. And if this was the, for example, this higher time frame sequential entity occurred between the days of the week, which is the weekly cycle, say for example, occurred, which it did, right? But I'm talking about the higher time frame because this is three stages which we have. First higher time frame sequential SMT followed by a precision swing point, you know, which relates directly to the higher time frame which you're looking at. So, for example, for the weekly cycle, it would be the 4-hour time frame. Let's grab that. For the monthly cycle, it would be for the 4-hour time frame. For the weekly cycle, it would be for the 1-hour time frame. For the daily cycle, it would be the 50-minute time frame. And for the 90-minute cycles, it would be 45-minute time frame. Right? So if this was the weekly cycle, how how would you write the formula for that three-stage setup? It would be first, you have you have to be looking at the 1-hour time frame. You have to have sequ SMT between two days of the week. After which you need to have a one-hour time frame position some point followed by sequential SMT within the daily cycle. Right? Do you understand? And, you know, with just saying that, you should know how to, you know, do most, if not all of them here.

Looking at the grey British pound, right? We dropped below this low right here. We had a higher time frame fair gap here, which is what price reacted to before going higher. You can see that we have these highs here, clean highs. You don't have to see that this price action is closer to this high. Way closer to this high than, you know, the euro's price action is to this high close, and way closer than the US dollar index's price actions to this low. So we could see another form of cracking correlation occur here, right? Which would occur, you know, allow price to pull back more.

And here, right, we're going to look at what happened this week in Bitcoin. So, this is the 4-hour time frame, right? Which means that the in regards to quarterly theory, we are looking at the monthly cycle, right? Because the monthly cycle goes to the 4-hour time frame. Here you can see that we failed to break above this high. Shows the high of the first quarter. Here we did break above this high and then that's what sent price going lower. Something here which is important is, you know, these highs right here, right? So I'll go here to show you that. So here we have a failure swing which occurred here. Something that we talked about already, but I'm pretty sure that you guys forgot about this, right? So here we had a failure swing right before this oh move. Here we had a stop run, right? But pay attention that, you know, this is not, you know, what you really want to see before price drops. First of all, there was no sequential SMT here. Right here, you know, this barely, you know, went above this high, and we're looking at the bodies right now. Price dropped again. And also this is more high probability. Whenever you see something like this happen, price dropped one more time higher, took this stop run out and took this failure out before just, you know, dropping. So this right here, as I've said before, is another type of crafting correlation, right? SMT stop runs the high, which means that the high that was run ran out was SMT before, right? But not, you know, you know, sequential high time frame sequential because, you know, in regards to the, the Bitcoin, you need the monthly cycle most times for, you know, higher time frame moves. Here we had a correlation, you know, which barely had price do anything. For Ethereum, it dropped a bit, yes, but this was not the real move.

So with this one, right? There's a lot of stuff that are packed in that, you know, you need to pay attention to here, right? And we're the same place as we were for almost the last two weeks with the dollar index. But as you guys can see, something that we talked about, right? We are in with we're within this consolidation here. And while we have the U while we have the US dollar index consolidating here, we have what the NASDAQ expanded moving, right? It's it's just it's doing something, right? That's what's happening here. So usually this is what, you know, happens. And this is why the FX market tends to consolidate more than the futures market. And whenever you should expect some type of expansion or reversal, right? Whether, you know, just some type of movement, even if there is no sequential SMT here, there's no SMT here, which there was not, there there was no SMT right here, but this is very technical. Something that is technical, not as easy to read as, you know, the three-stage sequence, the three-stage setup, which is higher sequence SMT followed by position point, then the lower time frame sequential SMT, right? Which works almost flawlessly with FX, right? This is more technical than that because you are looking at another asset watching if it's consolidating, then due to the fact that this is happening here, then you should expect expansion here. Usually the Auto index delays its expansions, but the index futures does not. This never consolidates, consolidates, consolidates, expands, consolidates, expands, consolid, expands, whereas here you'll see consolidation, consolidation, expansion, consolidation, consolidation, expansion, consolidation, consolidation, expansion, and, you know, that's just how it is. And that's why, you know, these markets tend just seem to move more.

So here currently, right? This high draw liquidity NASDAQ here, right? We're waiting for the actual move to happen. This is nothing but stagnation. This is just doing nothing. If we turn off the wicks right, it will look way worse. So look like price has literally not moved at all. It's CPI week, and, you know, usually whenever we have CPI, the US dollar usually does what happens here, which is what I expected. Expect the US dollar to just, you know, either run here then reverse or just run here then reverse, but you can see we stuck within this range, which is something that, you know, no one could predict at all, you know, when CPI, you know, will be held within a range, when will they not use the price action, not use the this time window to do nothing. So you learned something from this, right? You can see we have these liquidity pools still intact right here. Sequential SMT here, right? If we have another sequence sequential S&T here within the dollar, then we could expect price to run above this high. Ultimately for the dollar, you already know what we're looking for. Like overall, they're just like plain right now, right? Price has been barely really doing nothing. Even, you know, this right here, I think this is nothing, right? Not acceptable price action, right?

So hope that you found something useful useful from this. We will be back here Sunday, right? Either 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time or sometime before or Monday, depending on the news schedule, right? We'll be watching that to see if, you know, they have any emergency news just coming up due to the fact that, you know, all this, I don't, I don't know if I should call it propaganda. Um, you know, talking about, you know, stuff similar to co, you know, I honestly don't know what's going on. I don't want to like get on anyone's wrong side and I don't really want to talk about, you know, anything that would be deemed as quote unquote, you know, depressive. Why is he talking about these stuff? Talk about price action. No worries. Anyways, we will talk. So, they had, you know, a aha moment here today. And with that being said, good luck and good trading.