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[Music] Oh, a [Music] B [Music] n [Applause] [Music] [Music] Guys, look at this sea of red. One of the things that I actually am surprised about here is that Apple's down more than Nvidia. I am very shocked about that because Apple isn't massively overpriced. I do think Nvidia is overpriced, but I'm not going to guarantee, of course; you can't say what's going to happen any given day. Surprise, not surprised by Google. I think Google is one of the more reasonable plays in the market right now.
Now, guys, the big issue here was tariffs. That's why Restoration Hardware—look at this thing, down 40 percent. This is big, guys, and here's why. Look at their all-time high: 744 in August of 2021, three and a half years ago, and it is down this much. This is big. Now we always say in our videos, we say this constantly in every video on both channels. I like this quote from John Husman: "In a room filled with gasoline, with a fireplace in the corner, we don't know what spark will cause the explosion, but there will be a spark that causes the explosion." Could it be tariffs? I have no idea, guys. We've been in this before. The Nasdaq's only down 18 percent from its all-time high, and the S&P is only down 12 percent from its all-time high. These are nothing; this is nothing. That could happen. I mean, look at—look what happened during 2022. In 2022, with that bear market, I think the Nasdaq was down 37 percent. We don't know what's going to happen here, and I don't want anybody to think that this is any sort of victory lap for anything. What this is is saying valuations are very, very high. Are things cheaper than they were a month ago? Absolutely. A month and a half ago? Absolutely. Does it make them cheap? No, it does not. We have to remember that, and I hate to be that broken record, but guys, I'm a broken record myself, so I'm going to be a broken record with you. The goal here is to continue to follow your process of dollar-cost averaging low-cost ETFs. For those of you out there who love buying individual stocks, there are some good names I—I think—out there that are great, but you got to remember, like I think Google—this is my opinion—is fairly valued right now. It actually offers some good upside here with good returns on—um—IRR potential. With that said, if the Nasdaq were to fall another 30 percent, you better believe Google would fall along with it and fall hard. Why? That's what ETFs do. ETFs, when they're sold, they have to sell what's in the ETF, and Google is a big piece of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. So when that—that's S&P 500, Nasdaq—gets sold, Google will be sold along with it. It will be hurt. Is it possible it's not hurt as much as the rest? For sure. We always say the most overvalued companies end up falling the hardest during a pullback. Look at Nvidia. Nvidia hit an all-time high of what was it, 154 or 15? Let's pull it up here in our—in our Everything Money software, which must be overloading because it is my computer. It's actually my computer here. I hope it's my computer. So Nvidia here, let's start from the beginning here. Five and a half percent. The Nasdaq is down right now 5 and a half percent. Is everybody else having this issue, or is it just me? 'Cause this computer kind of stinks at times. So the Nasdaq is down 5 and a half percent. Here we go. Nvidia 102.75, 153 all-time high. Guys, look at this date. That wasn't even three months ago. Wasn't even three months ago, and we're already down from 153 down to 102, almost 35 percent.
The big one also for today, let's pull up Nike. Nike is an interesting one, guys. We've talked about Nike before. Nike had an all-time high of 179. We made videos in the past; we said, you know, Nike is a great company, but we don't think the premium's worth it. We'll be interested in looking at it further under 100, and I started buying shares below 80, something like that, and guess what? I'm down a lot on those shares. Guess how much I care? Zero. This stock is down big time today. Why? Tariffs. That's the big word out there now. The question you have to ask yourself is where is Nike going in the future? The future is unknown. We're humans; we make mistakes. That's—that's why we need a margin of safety with Nike here. You look at this going, damn, $56 a share. Guys, look at this. It's selling for 15 times free cash flow. You might sit there and say that's not low enough. Maybe not, but for a premium company like Nike with these kind of returns on capital with this kind of moat, I don't know, guys. Fifteen times free cash flow, 17 times earnings. Now remember, for those of you who have our stock analyzer tool, when you have our software, the stock analyzer tool potential return includes the dividend, so don't add the dividend on top of it. It includes the dividend. And let me show you guys what I think of Nike in our stock analyzer, and again, it's not for everybody. I did very reasonable assumptions here. Ten-year analysis, 3, 5, and 7 percent revenue growth. They're down 9 percent in revenue over the last year, so some people might be like, "Paul, you're crazy; that's too high." Maybe it is, but do you really think it's going to last forever? During the Great Recession, Microsoft's revenue fell one year, maybe two years, storm right back up. These are tough times right now. The 10, 11, and 12 percent profit margin. I did my PE of 2023 and 26 with my 9 percent return, guys, at today's current price. If the middle assumptions occur, I'm looking at a 14 and a half percent return. And when was the last time we saw Nike all green on my assumptions? I don't think it's ever happened. Now, where's Nike going from here? I don't know; that's the hard part. So whatever you buy today, guys, you're not going to—you're not going to get the absolute bottom. Assume it's going to go lower. What we're trying to—trying to do here is teach this principle-driven investing idea that you find a company you like at a good price. If it gets cheaper with the same fundamentals, and don't let the news—that's sparking out there—just to—to influence your decisions. Of course, you have to consider the news. There's news out there that is going to tell you, "Hey, you got to be careful here." The question is, is all the news right? News follows the stock price. If you could buy Nike and the middle assumptions occur and make 14.5 percent, would you be happy? I think you would. Remember, guys, to get really big companies at really good prices, it's hard because those companies get a lot of attention. Look at Meta when it fell to 88 in November of 2022. Look at that. I'm hearing people now say like, "Remember Meta?" I'm like, "I know; I remember Meta. I remember it completely." I really appreciate you guys joining us on this live stream, and we're going to do a lot more talking here about what's going on in the markets, but the tariffs are the issue right now. Who would have thought six, seven months ago tariffs would be the issue? Is it the issue? I don't know. I call it overvaluation. Now you might sit there and say, "Yeah, but Paul, tariffs are what cause—" Okay, the analogy to give is you—you take sips of milk out of the container, you put it back in the fridge. Finally, one day your wife says, "I'm done with this; I'm divorcing you." Is it really because you put the milk in your mouth? And you—no, it's not the reason. The reason is because you never listen to her. Valuations are—the valuations are—you never listen to her. Tariffs are the taking the milk out of the—the junk. Valuations are—we're going to—the more overvalued we are, the harder the fall is going to be. And the scary part is, look at 2000. We were 55 percent overvalued in 2000. We had three years in a row of negative S&P 500, guys. After this pullback, we're at like 95 percent overvalued. We're still overvalued big time. Now some would argue that some of the overvaluation is not fair. AI is changing the world. There's no doubt AI is changing the world, but remember the fifth and most important tenant of our principle-driven investing: A good story, a great story at the wrong price is a bad investment. You have to pay the right price. And how you know you're doing this is—this is my CR, by the way, speaking of—I was about to say criticism of crypto. Let's pull up—because we don't—let me pull up crypto here. So the Nasdaq's down 5.4, and Bitcoin's only down 6 percent. So real store of value there. But the thing about cryptos I say is like, okay, everybody's argument about crypto, they list 10 reasons why crypto is amazing, and guess what? I don't necessarily disagree with a lot of it. I don't disagree with it at all, but what I say is, "Fine. Add two zeros to the price of Bitcoin. Is that statement still—are all the statements still correct?" Yes. "Take three zeros away. Is it—is it still correct?" Yet. So you're not—you're not—you're not investing; you're speculating. All you care about is a story. With me and Nike, why do I like Nike? Well, I think it's a premium company selling for 15 times free cash flow. Add a zero to the price; it's now 50 times free cash flow. Do I still believe in it? No. That's investing. That's investing, a process-driven approach with numbers that really matter.
Now, guys, we are going to get to a time where there's going to be a lot of things on sale. I don't know when that's going to happen. Is the start of it? Maybe it is. But what we're here to do is remember that the US isn't going away. The US economy isn't going away. If you think it's going to zero, put more money into it because if it goes to zero, your money is worthless anyway. You might as well put it towards something like that. That is the big key here. But every past bear market and crash looks like an opportunity; every future one or current one feels like a risk. I don't know what's gonna—I wish I knew what was going to happen here. I really do wish I would—it would be awesome. I just had lunch with three of my wife's nephews. They own a business, a local business, and they want to invest money in real estate. They said, "Well, what about—what about interest rates? What's going to happen?" I'm like, "I don't care." They're like, "What about recession?" I'm like, "I don't care." And you know, they look at me like, okay. And maybe one of them's watching right now because he tends to watch the show. He quoted a few things I said, which I loved. Um, he's just trying to get in my will, I think. But either way, by the way, if you're watching now, um, please text me if you're trying to get in my will because I'd love to see it. That'd be great if you texted me right now and said that. But what—what—what the key here is, I say, "I don't care about where these things go because good investing doesn't need outside factors; they just need time." And that's what we have here. We have time. Most people here have time. You know, I made a post yesterday so on—on X, and some people are watching us on X right now because we—we went live, but on X right here, let me show you guys the post I did about Nike this morning, and it's been one of my best posts. I have 16,000 views. I talked about Nike. Sorry, the post before that, "Dear Baby Jesus," where's my "Dear Baby Jesus" post? "Dear Baby Jesus," here it is. Now I said, "I don't know; we don't talk much; that's on me, not your fault. Please let the stock market crash tomorrow. If it's not part of your plan, I'm cool with that. Future is looking phenomenal. You're bro, Pao." Somebody wrote, "Paul, people are going to be really hurt and affected. This is not a time to be fun like—" Not—guess what, guys, the world's going to do whatever it's going to do whether you're butt-hurt or not. So you might as well learn to adapt to what the world's doing. I made mistakes by shorting Nvidia. Did I cry about it? No. I learned my lesson; I move on. I didn't invest enough that it would affect my life, even though I was completely wrong, which I was. Okay. If it really affected my life and I still did it, good. Good lesson learned. Good lesson learned. If you're close to retirement and you have 100 percent of your money in stocks, I would encourage you to—to re-evaluate that, no matter where valuations are. Is the upside really worth it to you? That's the question you have to ask. This—this part of this whole principle-driven investing—if you don't have the stomach to weather this volatility—volatility is not risk, by the way—but if you don't have the stomach to weather the volatility, that's okay. There are other ways to make money that'll—that'll help you become better. So—so guys, here we are. My wife's three nephews—yeah, three nephews. I don't know. Um, oh, thanks very much, Titan Man. I appreciate that. Uh, is it crash—really your emotional about the market? Why? It's not about the money; it's about the US. I mean, okay, I don't know if it's a crash. Who knows what's crash, guys? We don't know what's going to happen until basically—I mean, Covid was interesting. Remember Covid, guys? Well, Nick wasn't here, but Tim, Tim, you were here during Covid. We were having a great time. What—when we started the channels? Right after Covid. Yeah, and it was—every time we were down 1 percent, we got Chipotle. That's right. I bought the office Chipotle every time we were down 1 percent. Awesome. We were down seven, eight percent of times; it was incredible. It was absolutely incredible. And by the way, I passed 10,000 followers for the first time today on Twitter. Um, that's kind of exciting. 10,000 followers at @mPaulG. I'm very active; I have 5,600 posts on there. J, by the way, wants to see Angry Paul. Just watch our Real Estate Channel, Everything Money Real Estate. There was a video we just recorded the other day; you'll see Angry Paul in there. You want to demonstrate what you were doing yesterday in that video? No, no. Let them just see it; it's fun. Just watch the video, by the way. Now see what everybody's laughing about. I said three wives today. Three wives' nephews. Okay, my wife's three nephews. Sorry, I did not mean to say my three wives' nephews. So which wife is your favorite? Lisa. Is that a good answer? Oh, God, guys. Investing is simple, not easy. It's the stomach part that's the hard part. I don't care who you are. Red sucks. I'm not short the market or anything anymore, and I—I'm really glad. I really love seeing red days, so I look at this saying, guys, it's—uh, you know, you're not gonna—the way you can outperform the market—everybody who's watching this right now is capable of outperforming. The question is, do you have the stomach to outperform? That's the question you have—that's the question needs to be asked all the time. Do you have the—but this is why, if you're strategic about how you buy, you can buy ETFs and help outperform the market. I've said it a thousand times. Look at QQQ. QQQ, let me—let me pull up a blank screen. QQQ from March of 2000 to August of 2022—202 was down 80 percent. I think intraday at one point was down 83 percent, something like that, guys. If you started buying on March of 2000 every single month until today—well, maybe not today—you had a 14 percent annualized return, dollar-cost averaging that crushes the market. The market didn't do that since then, since the peak of 2000. And now it's the question of, do you have the stomach to sit there and say, "Wow, something's—I started buying, and it's down 80-some percent. Can I continue buying?" That's hard. I don't care who you are; that's difficult. That is difficult. I would—I mean, I'm questioning stuff, by the way. I want to give Nick a shout-out here. Has everybody seen our good friend Alibaba today? At one point it was up—that's my dog, Pill—at one point Alibaba was up. It's even—I'm shocked by this. I thought for sure with the tariffs it would be pummeled. Did you not think that, Nick? Oh, big shot. Did I care? What was that? To—did I—I thought so. I asked Dayton about it. I said, "Oh, they—" It was up at one point today. Wow. Why? No idea. No clue. Just like I never thought it would be down 10 percent while Nvidia's only down 7 percent. Only—oh, man, I was shocked by that. Nasdaq's down 5 and a half percent still. Here are some of the biggest losers today: Dell, Micron—oh, and then we have to go back to Restoration Hardware. Was it halted today? I heard West Hard was halted today. Okay, PayPal's down 7 and a half percent today. That's a hold of mine. I was buying all the way down to 50 on PayPal. It got all the way to like 90 or something. I don't remember how high it got. And Amazon down 8 percent today. I mean, who knows what's—guys, look at this way. Amazon was one of the beneficiaries of Covid. Covid happened; everybody was like, "Amazon sucks." About me, Kevin. I'll get Paul going. Good idea. Why did we fire Mo? We didn't fire Mo. Mo just enjoys golf a lot. We should FaceTime Mo now. He's on the golf course. No, he won't answer. He's a dick to me. He's too—he's too rich to care. I'm richer than—guy—he's still—he works less than I do. Should we FaceTime him? Yeah, let me see if I—if he answers a FaceTime. He's not going to answer. He—let's see here, Mo. Oh, that'd be great. Let's see—let's see if Mo answers a FaceTime. He's golfing in Utah. Utah, or is it Vegas? Neighborhood? Was he really—is he really—come on. He's not answering me. Is it a nice area? Damn, Mo doesn't invite me to his golf. But we don't really want to do that. My wife and I are picking up golf, but Mo has not been on videos lately. Why did you guys deport—that's good; that's funny. Hey, Ethan, maybe PayPal is junk. You might be right. Uh-oh, wow, look at this. So Honor Chimp articles are already being posted by Alibaba saying it's a stock to buy to protect from Trump tariffs. Baba was untouchable nine months ago. You're—I mean, that's God, that's such a beautiful statement. That's such a beautiful, beautiful statement. I want everybody to remember this. Go watch our videos from the past, and we talked about Alibaba, and people were really like, "Dude, you don't get it. It's China; they're communist; they suck." By the way, they couldn't be—oh yeah, look at Target. Target's at like $96 today. Did you—you guys see Target? Wow. I was buying Target below—to 103. Went back up to 180, and then now it's at—look at that, $95 a share. Look at this dividend yield. Look at that dividend. Big-time dividend. 4.7 percent, 4.25 percent forward-looking. That's a lot. Uh, I have HPQ, Ricardo. I haven't looked at it in a while. Uh, Aston Martin. I never stop at Target, probably because you're a guy. Uh, Target. I own Target. Remember, don't ever buy a company just because I or anybody else owns it. I do own Target, and uh, I do think Target's going to be around for a very long period of time, and I do think it's going to be a bigger company 10, 20 years from now than it is today. And I look at this going—look at this, Tim. Nick singled—digit PE and single-digit price-to-free cash flow on the one-year and five-year basis, basically, with good returns on capital. I mean, I look at this going, "Damn, what do you do here? What do you do here?" It's in—what was that selling by—Baba—Nick's comment. I bought Nike today, too. Yeah, Nike is incredible, by the way. I will say I think Nike—somebody wrote today in my tweet like, "I don't think Nike is a great deal right now." I said 56, like, okay, I don't know what your assumptions you're making are. I felt like my assumptions on stock analyzer for Nike were very reasonable. I gotta go find it now. Let's go back and look at these, and I want everybody to butcher them. Is 5 percent revenue growth too high? I don't—I don't. Seven's happening. I think three is too low. I don't think these are—this is the only questionable area, but I got to ask you, look at these returns on capital. Isn't this a premium company? This, to me, is a premium company. I think it deserves a premium PE. What's that premium? I don't know. I don't know. Is it 17, 2023? Is it 2023, 26? Some would argue higher; some would argue lower. I know it's not a 15 uh—uh multiple of earnings and free cash flow. I just think that's the market rate, and this is a better-than-market company, so you got to give it a premium. Remember, value investing involves—isn't just about buying bottom-of-the-barrel companies. That's one way of doing it, the cigar butts, the cigarette butts, as Warren Buffett used to do back in the day. One last puff, buy it really cheap, get one last puff out of it. I don't know. Have you ever covered CoreWeave? I don't think I have. Um, oh, thanks, Chris. And Chris, by the way, you've also made a lot of money because the market's been up since we started the channel, but at the same time, I'm hoping that over a long period of time that you come back 10 years from now and say, "Paul, I—I'm a better investor because you guys helped me." I hope that—oh, God, this will—will this be the time you take action on Race or—or—um, Hershey's? Hershey's more than Race. Race is Ferrari, by the way, guys. I just think it's too much. I agree with you, Daniel. I think—I think Nike under 60 is a really good value. And guys, we have a video coming out this—this weekend. You guys got to watch it about what's the—what's it called? What's the title? Tim's pulling up the exact title so we can explain it. Um, why aren't you—oh, yeah. Brace yourself: Super investors warn of stock market history repeating itself. Guys, there's a lot—I mean, listen, valuations are what they are. You got to look at it and say, "Hey, is it—is it—uh, you don't think IE has a remote—" Okay. Um, you got to wonder whenever you're buying a company, is, "Hey, are you buying it at a price that's reasonable for the future?" And then you look at the stock market in general; are you buying it for a price that's reasonable for the future? I think today doesn't mean you stop, but I think today is really difficult to—to—to get, unless we have major, major, major inflation helps this market because if we had 7 percent inflation 10 years from now, the GDP is double, and we're back at normal valuations. But do you hear what I just said? It takes 7 percent inflation for 10 years and this market being flat for valuations to be even. That's a lot. That's a lot, assuming no EPS growth. What was that? Uh, let me see. Rocket Mike, hey, Paul, what's up with Google, Kodak post on X? Oh, so great question, Rocket Mike. There's a lot of people saying that Google is going to lose its search engine—dominance because of ChatGPT. Um, Kodak was a company that they were late to the game. Now, Chad—now the good thing about Google is they have—they have AI working in their benefit. They have YouTube; they have google.com; they have Gmail. They have a lot of different ways to get people ingrained. But I look at Kodak saying, "Kodak's still a half-billion-dollar company with over a billion dollars in revenue, but it's not the dominant player it was in the digital age." Is Google becoming another Kodak? I don't think so. Could it be? Sure. Go ahead. Was Kodak ever a verb? Um, no. But—but—but Kleenex—what is—what's Kleenex doing? Yeah, but that's not a verb. You don't say, "Kodak moment" me. No. It's just like Google it. Yeah, Google it. I mean, I did—it's YouTube it. You know, I mean, again, those are—those are small anecdotes. Those are a lot of anecdotes. I mean, a lot of people in the world do that. The question is, is Google the next Kodak? I don't think so. I think Google's—oh, yeah, you bought some Crocs today. Oh, next, I want to look at Crocs. That one's hard hit today. Oh, way more than Nike. Yeah, where's—
Oh, Paul, too many tickers in there. 14 and a half percent. Can you mic? Can you mute my mic real quick? Look at Crocs here. So first off, let's look at the metrics of Croc. I mean, look at this, guys: six times free cash flow, six times earnings, all-time high 183, currently at 90. F is 95. It's not even, it's not even 52-week low. I mean, it's single digits. I mean, I look at this. This is what I said about Crocs in previous videos we did. If you think Crocs is going to be around forever and they're going to grow their revenue three, four, five percent a year, what are you doing? You gotta—I mean, I look at this going, this is an incredible—I mean, look at this: six times free cash flow, makes a billion, makes 900 some million dollars a year in free cash flow. High returns on capital. I mean, if you're here to—and I'm not telling you to go buy it, I'm just asking you if this is what you think about the company.
Remember, I always ask these three important questions about investing in a company based on my goals for investing. My goals for investing are lazy investing. I have enough. I have a thousand apartments. I've got businesses upstairs that are growing. I'm going to own 5,000 apartments in the next five or 10 years. I don't need money in stocks. So when I buy companies, I want to buy companies I think are going to be around for 20 or 30 years. So if they're around for 20 or 30 years, then I go, hey, are they going to be bigger than they are 20 or 30 years from now than today? If the answer to that is yes, my third and final question is, can I pay a reasonable price today based on the future growth that gives me an adequate return on my capital? Six times free cash flow, that's a 16% cash flow yield. If they just buy back shares like crazy, imagine what happens here. It's incredible. I got to time my shoe. What questions do we have? You guys want to ask me something, because I, I don't see the screen anymore? What other questions do we have? We're going to go for another 15-20 minutes or so. Intel's up? No way. Somebody said Intel's buy, by the way, guys. I could tell you right now, I don't even look at my accounts. Oh my God, Intel's up. Talk about Bizarro World. Paul looks like Vector from Despicable Me. I got to see who Vector is from Despicable Me. Oh, this is going to be what the—this is, this is not me. This is, this is 100% not me. Where, where did this come [Music] from? Oh, this guy is pretty sick. That guy is pretty sick. I used to have a bowl cut, for the record, when I was a kid. That's great. That's so good. Thank you for that. That was good.
Oh, Skechers. Yeah, a lot of retail was dead today. Skechers was plummeted too. Well, Intel's up. I read something the other day about Intel last night that said Intel's CEO, well known, the new one is well known for under-promising and over-delivering. So we'll see if he does it again. Paul, go look at the near 52-week low list. Click on the stocks there. Yep, go—that's the 52—go look at the near 52—ah, thank you. And just scroll. Good God, look at all this red, guys. Holy cow. Gener. Nice. This is a holding of mine. This is a holding of mine. Look how high it got recently, 195. I was like, I only made one purchase of it, and then it skyrocketed from there. Gener coming in hot. I love it. Look at that free cash flow. Woo. Gen's looking good. Wowser. Decent returns on capital, nothing to write home about. Let me see my Gener, my last Gener analysis. Oh, let's do 9%, not 15. All right, it's there: 13 and a half percent return. Guys, remember you can't mimic people who—what I'm trying to teach is a process here. I know everybody wants to see what I own, and I'm pretty open about what I own, but you got to remember I'm not going to buy like the average person is going to buy, because I don't need to. I can wait for absolute blood baths in the street to deploy a lot of capital. That's probably my plan. Yes. Do I buy here and there? Did I buy a little Nike today? Maybe. No, I didn't. I want to, though. I sold puts, though. And I look at that going, okay, I look at this thinking, when there's blood in the—you know, I saw some today on Twitter go, oh, there's extreme fear in the market. Look at the indicator. I'm like, this isn't extreme fear, this is just people temporarily being upset. This is not extreme fear. Extreme fear is like bad. What are you laughing about, Tim? What happened? What—I see this is great and all, but what does this mean for Ted? Do we have another Hans and Matt Jones here? That's funny. That is funny. You're welcome back anytime, Honor Chimp. That's funny. I know. Hey, Paul, can you check on VG? What's VG? Rocket Mike. We, we've seen you before. Venture Global. What's Venture Global? 24 billion. Oh, look at this negative free cash flow. Oh, yeah. I just look at this immediately thinking, I, no, thank you. I don't understand. Oh, natural gas. Who needs to talk to about this one is DT in this? DT on should be on. Hey, Dalton. Paul, my mom and AJ are watching this live stream. Well, this is an awkward time to say, Dalton, you're fired. Happy birthday yesterday, pal. You're out. Poor guy. That was a joke. Let me see, let me see it, let me see it happen. Come on. I want to wait for, for Dalton to text me. Not no Dalton text. Hey, Paul, a look at Applied Materials, HPQ. I, I own HPQ. Okay, what else we got here? What else is going on in the, in the news of the market? I have tennis tonight. That is my reminder that just popped up. I have tennis tonight. No pickleball. Oh, look at this one. How much more can stocks fall? Hint: plenty. That's interesting. So, guys, you think you're in a recession already? I don't know. I mean, it looks—if—but I've been, I've been—I thought that for a while, and I'm like, ah. When you get inverted yield curve and all this stuff. FaceTime Dalton. I'm not laughing. JP, how old am I now? Is Ethan, are you asking me how old I am? Dalton did not respond to my—where is he? Where did he say it? Oh, okay, got it. DT just texted me. [Laughter] Dick. What was that? What'd you say? Just tell me now. Nobody's going to hear it. I did it. You know, I'm not everybody's secretary. I'm done being everybody's assistant and secretary. My wife, I have to text her. You know, I texted her yesterday—no, it's a second—I texted my wife yesterday and said, hey, your niece's daughter's third birthday is today. She's like, thank you, P. I'm like, I'm like, what am I doing here? I'm like, literally texting my wife about her niece's daughter's third birthday, and I don't know why. Why, why you doing that? Like Tim, do you feel bad not messaging Dalton? Yeah, I should have done it. Why? It's in your calendar. Put in a reminder, like I do with everybody. Oh yeah, the thing is right here. Oh yeah. Cedric just came in and goes, uh, wow, I didn't realize how much Nike fell. VFC is—um, that retail business. What do they have, like, Lanen or something? What do they own? North Face, Vans, Dickies. So, so what this is is, do you believe in their products? They have a $400 million, um, free cash flow last year, 383 in the last five years, 4 billion dollar market cap, a lot of enterprise value. So a lot of debt in there. Not the greatest return on invested capital. Um, let's see their free cash flow. See, was consistent. Ow, that hurt. So one bad year. Oh, but look at these, these were big years beforehand. Is it a declining business on its way down? Is 10 times multiple enough? I don't know. Let's see. By the way, let's see what U—my good friend, Palen—is doing. We haven't—I've had nobody ask about Palen here. Oh, not bad. Only 85, uh, only down 2 and a half percent, 2.85. What was the all-time high? 125. Just like last week. No, it was February 19th. Guys, again, so here's the deal, guys. I repeat the same things over and over to myself every single day about investing, literally every day. Dal and I, when we talk about the investments we're making, we talk about investment, you know, we, we literally repeat the same things over and over. The reason I say this is that's what successful investing is about, is sticking to a mantra and saying, this is what I'm going to do through thick and thin. You got to brainwash yourself, and that is hard. Brainwashing yourself is an uncomfortable thing to do, but it works. I try to brainwash my stepson every single day. I send him—look at me, how many quotes I sent this kid. I sent him quote after quote after quote. Why? Because I want to get his mindset in the right way. I know he's getting—I know he reads them, and I say to him, do you ever read this? He's like, oh yeah, it takes me five, 10 seconds. I like them a lot. He likes the motivational stuff. So I just send him things over and over, and a lot of it's repeated stuff. When it comes to the market, you got to remember this repeated stuff, because guess what? Successful investing is simple investing. The more complicated you make it, the harder it's going to be. It's one of the few things in the world that the less—that less is more. Less is more in investing. Mo's, Mo's golfing right now. I want to, I want to nip these rumors in the butt. Mo is not fired. Mo is golfing right now. Listen, you guys remember Mo lives in Florida for like six months out of the year. Mo and I still talk every single day. Mo's on the channel. He has his own channel where he does trading. Mo is a very active part of—go ahead. And he is on videos with us. He wasn't able to record with us last Monday because he was going on his trip, 'cause he's a dick, uh, but he'll be in some stock videos with us. There was one that he was in two weeks ago, and yeah, he is putting out weekly content as well as engaging the community weekly about trading and, and—Dalton's fiancée, AJ, just trolled him and said, DT on repeats things over and over and more than just investing. Oh my God. My wife says to me all the time, like, I get it, you said that already. I'm like, okay, sounds good. Does she? Yeah. Like, you already said that earlier. I said, I said, I know, but it helps me. Exactly. Exactly. These, these, these guys, you gotta do this stuff. We got the average viewer. Hey, Tim, what was the average viewer like? How long have they been in the market? Like four or five years? The average viewer of our channel? Yeah, less than five years was the predominant chunk, but it was like three to five years. So you look at that saying, okay, you're new to this, you've only seen a bull market, you haven't seen bad times, and it's going to beat the crap out of a lot of people, and guess what? Just like the tech bubble beat the crap out of me. Get better. There's a better way. Sometimes it takes losing money to do that. I'm okay with that. I brainwash myself and everyone around me. Oh, that's funny. That is funny. Now, okay, so what time is it? It is 5 after. It's still 5:10. Who here was excited yesterday? I got home late yesterday. Where was I? Oh, I was at dinner with my brother-in-law. So I got home and my computer screen was already up. So I, you know, I opened the computer to check email, and it was already on, um, futures for some reason. I see negative 4.4%. I go, what the f happened? So I go to the main page, and it says, and it says, uh, Trump enacts these tariffs. Guys, who knows what's going to happen from these? These are inflationary, these are inflationary tactics, but is he doing it to get them to back down? Maybe they are, maybe he is. I don't know. Thank you, Honor Chimp. Um, I haven't checked hims in a while, but it seemed very overvalued. Norm from Fallout tried to show your screenshot. What screenshot are you talking about? Stock Mo, who's talking about Stock Mo? Oh, no, good God, no. Oh geez. St—about that was triggering. I don't look at sectors at all. Uh, Lyall, for real, I don't ever care about sectors. So, Andre, I hate to say this to you, we're not going to tell you what Mo's channel is, and the reason being is you got to go find it. It's a very specific thing about how YouTube works. If we told everybody the channel and then people went and looked at it one time and then left it, it would tell YouTube people are not watching this channel. People come, then leave, so it hurts the channel to average it. You just got to find it. Same with a real—we have a real estate channel. I've had literally friends say to me, hey, what's your real estate channel? I'm like, go find it. They're like, really? I'm like, you got to go find it. So, are the markets up today? Yes. Rabs, markets are up 18% today. Prove that Mo's alive. Hey, I tried to FaceTime him, he's not answering, so maybe he is dead. Mo, the people want—let me tell them. Hey, Mo, I'm on a live stream, and the people want proof that you're alive because I FaceTimed you and didn't answer, and everyone thinks that you're dead. Period. Message failed. How many people do we have in this live stream right now? Oh wow. Oh wow. Great. Hello to the Twitter people. And if you're on Twitter, follow me. Where's it on the screen here? Follow me at emulG. I just passed 10,000 followers today. Uh, is it too late to dab for that? I might have just lost followers from dabbing. But another thing Lisa hates, she's like, you got to stop the dabbing. I'm like, I love dabbing. She's like, it's so old. I'm like, I'm doing it. Uh, scroll down would you, so I can see more lies you sent. Mo—tell Salvador. I did. Uh, Henry, you're not overleveraged because you have a lot in Nike. You, you might not be diversified, but word leverage means you have borrowed money. Listen, you got to do what's, what's comfortable for you. You know, Warren Buffett says you got to keep your portfolio small. I like a divers—I have 26 or 28 holdings. I'll probably have 40 or 50 at some point. I'm okay with that. Southwest Airlines down 8 and a half percent. Now we're talking. Let's go check out Southwest. Wow, $29 a share. Oh, guys, I think Southwest is not for the faint of heart. It's, it's an airline. It's tough, but I think Southwest has the most upside potential, and the reason being is their profit margin is 1.7% in the last year, negative in the last five years. Okay, 10 years is 5.7 with this negative here. They were all over 10 to 15% before COVID. That's my thesis. So if we can get back just to 8% here, watch these numbers, and I put a low PE in here because it's an airline. Hit the analyze button. I think this has a lot of potential, 19% potential return based on a 14 multiple. That's my thesis on it. Am I right? I don't know, but if I had 30 companies that looked like this that had these metrics, I'd be very ecstatic, and I'd probably do very well in investing. That's what I like. Um, you know, Love and CCL. I moved on. I did see Love right now. CCL. Why would I compare Love and CCL? I don't know. You know, Amazon. Geez, you know, Amazon. I just don't know if I get it. It's still a tough one for me because I look at these growth—look at, look at Amazon. That's confusing to me, and I want everybody to like, please tell me, you know, I'm missing something. I missed something on Amazon for the last 10 years. I mean, I look at this gross margin of 19 and a half percent. Is this true? I don't know. But in order for them to make a lot of money, I mean, their profit margin last year was nine—last 12 months was 99.3%, way better than the last five years, and it's getting better. Where's it going to go? Is it going to get to 15, 20%? That, that's where the big money is made, because if you go to stock analyzer here, how do you get Amazon? I mean, look at this profit margin. I have 47 and 10% revenue growth with 9% margins in the middle. Let me put my 9% return. I mean, I'm at 145 here, so at the current price it's looking at six and a half percent return. But again, you make that middle 9%, 12%, suddenly it's a buy. It's a buy, right? I, I don't know. It's really, really not a buy, but it's probably fairly valued. Amazon is just—that's exactly what I mean by like, if you don't understand it, you don't invest in it. I do not—it's been proven time and time again that I do not understand Amazon. I order off of Amazon. I order everything I possibly—I just ordered three arcade machines yesterday from Amazon for one of my house rentals in—from one of my lake houses that I rent out. Three, three freaking, you know, 72-inch—yeah, from Amazon. Who would have thought 25 years ago I'm ordering arcade machines from Amazon? Yeah, maybe you're right, Henry, maybe I am too low on the revenue growth. I do not—oh yeah, but it was a good percent split between—setting aside money for—so, Silvar, great question. Can we look at this question? You often encourage DCA. I always encourage it, dollar-cost averaging, but what's a good percentage split between setting aside money for dollar-cost averaging and having money in your own stocks? Here's what I say to people. My opinion is this: go to our retirement calculator, put in your assumptions for retirement, make sure that you dollar-cost average in low-cost ETFs enough money to hit your goals. From there, if you have extra money, put that into individual stocks. That's what I would do, because I look at it going, don't risk retirement making individual bets. Get yourself set aside on retirement with your dollar-cost average and low-cost ETFs. Doesn't mean—and by the way, be aggressive on putting more when valuations are lower, but I don't believe in buying individual stocks until you have everything else taken care of. Like, for me, if all my stocks went to zero today, I sell my real estate. I mean, assuming that they're tattooed chefs or something—not the markets go to zero, my stocks go to zero. If every, all 26 or 28 of them go to zero, I still have real estate, I still have businesses. I'm not going to have a problem retiring. That's why I don't mind buying individual stocks, but if you're just saving for retirement, 10, 12, 7, 6,000 a year, make sure that's in something that you know that you're very comfortable with. No need to go along with the market. That's what you should do. Thoughts on holding cash in this environment? I don't know. Sold all my China stocks. Wow, interesting. What's SSL, man? There's a lot of good stuff out there, guys. Have you guys used—who here in—who's watching this, do me a favor and put um, yes, if you've used that retirement calculator before. Just type in yes if you—Ed retirement calculator. Henry, I don't know banks. I don't understand banks. I don't understand banks at all. I don't know how they make money, lose money. They're, they're a totally different breed than just free cash flow. Is Apple good? What do you think about Robinhood? I haven't looked at Robinhood. It's probably too hyped for me, for me. Let's see what Robinhood does. Yes, yes. Oh, cool. No. Yes, yes. No. T. I know T's tanking, but T is going to tank more as the markets go down. Yes. Oh, this is great. Good job, guys. I'm really glad you guys have used our, um, our retirement calculator. Free cash flow, $38 billion market cap on—these are very growth companies. You got to be careful on these high-growth margins, though. Interesting. Interesting. Robinhood's probably a little too—I mean, 26 times earnings, but we don't have any free cash flow. Lot of yeses. Shall we sell our IRA? Uh, Abash. I think Google's something to pay attention to. Mike George, any update on PayPal? My views on PayPal stay the same. It's down a lot, and um, I still believe in it. We'll see if I'm right. Is gold a good investment now? Who's making fun of me about gold? Back and it was like 1,700. I'd bought gold miners that got—16,700 per ounce, and they haven't caught up yet on gold pricing, but it's just a matter of time. For those of you who are Bitcoin lovers, like a store of value is Bitcoin, um, just go look at the price of Bitcoin today relative to NASDAQ and look at gold today relative to NASDAQ. Gold down today, but it's not down six percent. All right, let's do two more minutes. Two more minutes. Let's see if there's a—let's see what my amigos on, uh, the Twitter machine are saying. Yeah, that's N—oh, thanks very much, E2. That's very nice. Yeah, this Nike thing was incredible. Nike was just like—I mean, people just, just like, Paul, Nike will never go below 180, you idiot. Just like Google, they said when it was at 15, like, well, we're interested under 100. It'll never go below 100. Okay, I still think Google's actually might even end up below 100 at some point. Who knows, guys? Thank you for supporting the channel. I get great messages from you guys on Instagram and Twitter. Um, for those of you who are part of our community, I, I think you have a great investment for literally less than, you know, like, for a dollar a day. If you want to join the community, guys, we have a seven days for $7 opportunity out there. Go to everythingmoney.com/signup. We're going to put the link in this chat here. You get all of these tools, and April 15th we're splitting everything off. We talked about it for a while. It's finally happening. You have to pay individually for everything. If you do it now, you get it forever, guys. There's a reason why 75% of the people who sign up for our $7 trial not only do they renew, they also pay for the year in full because they take advantage of that discount. That is going to go up very soon as well. Um, so I appreciate everything, and uh, we're going to be here for a long time, and we're going to be here as things get scary and good, and we'll be the calm during the storm. Can I give a spoiler alert? What's a spoiler alert? So if you do sign up for that $7 trial, it's 50% off. If you do the annual, it's a one-time offer, 50% off. That is the only time you'll see that price. Price. Paul hates it, by the way. I texted Tim the other day. I said, we're done with this price. This is stupid. Like our prof—our software is way more valuable than this. We're not doing this 50% discount BS. So do it right. We get too many signups to do 50% discount BS. So take advantage of it now. Yeah, thanks, guys. Take care.