Transcription
For years, Iran has been supplying weapons, particularly Shahed drones, to Russia. Those weapons arrive on shadow fleet ships taking secretive routes through the Caspian Sea. And now, Ukraine has had enough. It just turned that secret weapons route into a giant fireball with drone attacks against Iranian ships that were sailing to Russia.
But this story is bigger than the strikes. What we’re seeing here is two wars converging into one. Russia, Iran, Ukraine, and the U.S. are now involved in a conflict that spans the globe. Are we seeing the start of a global war? Perhaps. But let’s start with the strikes.
On July 25, Ukraine unleashed a wave of strikes against ships sailing through the Caspian Sea. On the surface, these ships looked like regular commercial vessels. They weren’t. The ships were part of the shadow fleet that Russia and Iran have been using to transport weapons and oil between themselves. For Ukraine, this is a situation that can no longer be tolerated. The weapons that Russia has been receiving, which include drones and missiles, have for too long been used to attack Ukrainian cities and kill Ukrainian civilians. So, Ukraine did something about it. And it isn’t shy about letting the world know about its results.
On his official Telegram account, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, announced the strikes to the world. “We…have very good results from long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. In particular, these are vessels that were involved in the transportation of military cargo with Iran, and a warship,” Zelenskyy said in an announcement where he also detailed attacks against the Tyumen Oil Refinery in Yekaterinburg, a strike against a fuel and lubricants warehouse in Rostov-on-Don, and a drone assault on an enterprise in Kirov that makes components used in the weapons that Russia launches at Ukraine. That latter strike was conducted at a range of about 1,200 kilometers, Zelenskyy said, which highlights just how deep Ukraine’s strikes are now able to go.
But it’s Iran’s ships that are the headline-grabbers here. What Ukraine has just done is launch strikes against a nation other than Russia. That’s huge because it means that two separate wars have just converged into one, and it opens the door to a globe-spanning conflict. The footage from the strikes is revealing. Ukraine has now hit three vessels in the Caspian Sea, at least two of which were transporting weapons from Iran. Those ships, the Begey and the Port Olya 2, may fly the Russian flag. But they were filled with Iranian supplies and, for all intents and purposes, were as important to Iran and its attempts to keep its flagging economy going as they were to Russia and its desire to continue its constant bombardment against Ukraine. There was no mercy shown to these ships. The plumes of smoke and massive fires show us that Ukraine wasn’t looking to disable. It wanted to sink. This is an escalation unlike anything yet seen in the Caspian Sea. And it has massive ramifications.
What we’re seeing here is Ukraine delivering a huge warning shot to Iran. For years, Iran’s regime has cooperated with Putin. Beyond the Shahed drones, Iran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement toward the end of 2025, making it clear that the two nations were deepening their relationship. To Ukraine, the wars had already converged. Iran may be fighting the U.S. in the Gulf, and Russia may be invading Ukraine on its own territory. But this cooperation between the two means the war is already global.
As Zelenskyy points out, Russia has been providing Iran with satellite photographs used in strikes against U.S. bases and American allies in the Gulf region. “Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and U.S. military facilities located there. These images subsequently appear in Iran,” Zelenskyy declared in his July 25 evening address to the Ukrainian people, adding, “There is a clear correlation between Russia’s satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes – both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted. On July 19 and 20 alone, four air bases fell within the area of interest of Russian satellites – two in Bahrain, one in Jordan, and one in Kuwait.”
So, Ukraine’s justification is clear. Iran was already involved, and Ukraine has decided to meet its shadow fleet ships with fire. We’ll be digging deeper into those justifications later. But what is interesting about Zelenskyy’s statement here is that he’s sending a message. Not to Iran, and not even to Russia, but to the United States. Ukraine is letting the U.S. know, in no uncertain terms, that its war against Iran is actually a fight to protect the entire West and its values from nations that wish to destroy them.
There’s a shock factor to these strikes, which has reverberated through the halls of the White House. That’s according to Joe Barnes, who’s the Diplomatic Editor at The Telegraph. Barnes points out that Iranian cargo ships in the Caspian Sea don’t seem like obvious targets for Ukraine. But by striking these ships, and making the statement we shared earlier, Zelenskyy is reinforcing the nature of the alliance between Iran and Russia in the minds of the Trump administration. Ukraine’s goal is to link the two conflicts. And by doing so, it might be able to create some “wriggle room” to encourage the U.S. to offer more support to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia. After all, Ukraine argues, these two wars are already one. Help Ukraine defeat Russia, and Iran weakens substantially – this is the message being delivered to the U.S.
It is likely no coincidence that Ukraine’s strikes against Iran’s ships occurred on the eve of Zelenskyy arriving in the U.S. on July 28 for meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump, his team, and what Zelenskyy calls “those who can support our defense.” In an X post announcing his arrival in the U.S., Zelenskyy said, “Our number-one priority is anti-ballistic defense and strategic cooperation with America. Peace needs to be brought closer.” What better way to encourage that cooperation than to demonstrate to the Trump administration that two seemingly separate enemies are actually one mutual foe?
As for Iran. Well…its regime is p***ed! In the wake of Ukraine’s Caspian Sea strikes, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, took to social media to rail against Ukraine. “Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor. A blatant UN Charter violation done at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war,” Araghchi blared, before declaring that Iran has “made clear that what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.” In other words, Iran is planning some kind of response. What that response is remains to be seen. Araghchi’s words are vague, likely deliberately so, and Iran also has its hands tied with the fight against the U.S. in the Gulf region.
For its part, Ukraine has dismissed the Iranian threat and doubled down on its view that the strikes against these cargo ships were 100% legitimate. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, has let Iran know precisely where Ukraine stands in a July 27 X post, where he said, “Iran’s threats are unjustified and groundless. The regime in Teheran is a direct accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine, fuelling Moscow’s criminal war with weapons that have killed Ukrainians since 2022.” Sybiha adds that Iran has no right to pretend to be a victim in all of this, never mind to threaten United Nations action against Ukraine. Again, it comes back to Ukraine’s overall point. Iran has been part of the war with Russia since the very beginning. All Ukraine just did was teach Iran why that is a very bad idea.
Tensions have exploded to unforeseen levels. Both wars in Ukraine and Iran, which already involved dozens of nations either providing aid or being directly affected by strikes, have just escalated. What happens next could be huge for the course of global events. But before we dig into that, as well as what Ukraine did and why it attacked these ships, this is a reminder that you’re watching The Military Show. We make this show to explain how power really moves, so make sure you're subscribed and have notifications enabled so you see more of our videos.
Before we dig deeper into what all of this means for the future, there’s a question that needs to be answered: How did Ukraine even manage to attack shadow fleet cargo ships in the Caspian Sea? After all, the clue is the name – shadow fleet. These ships are supposed to be hidden. They deactivate transponders and take secret routes specifically to prevent something like what just happened from happening. Iran, as furious as it is at Ukraine, will be shocked in equal measure that Ukraine was able to pull off a strike like this before.
How it happened comes down to the brilliant use of an intelligence network and equipment that enables Ukraine to track shadow fleet ships as they sail in the Caspian Sea. On the intelligence front, Ukraine is part of the War & Sanctions project, which is essentially a massive database of targets that have been identified as being part of Russia’s campaign of aggression against Ukraine. This database compiles open-source data, information from Ukraine’s partners on sanctioned ships, satellite imagery, and much more to provide Ukraine with a list of potential targets to strike. Both the Begey and the Port Olya 2 are in that database. You can search for them yourself, and you’ll find information about the ships, justifications for them being targets, a list of the ports that they’ve visited, and even information about the flags that they sail under to try to stay hidden from view. So, Ukraine knew what it wanted to strike.
But Ukraine still had to find these shady ships as they sailed in the Caspian Sea. What may have happened here is that Ukraine combined all of the data it had already collected with the use of a dedicated synthetic aperture radar that it received from Finland. That radar was crowdfunded by Ukraine’s people back in June 2022. They raised more than the planned $13 million in three days, initially to buy Bayraktar drones from Turkey. When Turkey heard about this, they donated the drones to Ukraine, leaving the $18 million for the purchase of what is essentially a spy satellite that Ukraine can use to track the movements of targets. This brilliant device fires radar energy at the Earth’s surface from 500 kilometers away, and it uses what it gets back to build an image of what it “sees.” Clouds, darkness, and weather don’t affect the radar. And using it, Ukraine can receive images of what is on the ground, or, perhaps in this case, the Caspian Sea, six times faster than it would from other sources.
So, what likely happened here is that satellite imagery clued Ukraine into the fact that the two Iranian cargo ships were setting sail from Iran through the Caspian Sea. Ukraine then used its own radars to track those ships, which in turn allowed it to set a course for drones that would fly hundreds of kilometers to take those vessels down. As for the drones, it appears that Ukraine used the Liutyi for the job. One of the most famous long-range drones that Ukraine has developed, the Liutyi has been making a name for itself for years. With a range of more than 1,000 kilometers and the ability to carry warheads weighing up to 75 kilograms, it has more than enough range and power to reach the Caspian Sea and punch holes in any ships attempting to sail through it. Liutyi is also believed to have a navigation system that incorporates artificial intelligence, which makes it much harder for electronic warfare devices to send it off course. And in an interesting wrinkle, Ukraine has been adapting the drone in a cruise missile carrier. That’s according to a July 21 United24 Media report, which says that Ukraine recently showcased a version of the Liutyi that can carry four compact air-launched cruise missiles, essentially transforming the drone into an unmanned bomber. That wasn’t the version of the Liutyi used against Iran’s and Russia’s ships. Kamikaze drones did the damage. But it’s interesting to see what Ukraine has in store for the future of its war against Russia and what now seems to be a burgeoning conflict with Iran.
Speaking of the future, the big question now is whether Ukraine’s justification for its Caspian Sea strike will be enough to ward off a fight with Iran, or if Iran is intent on following through with its threats of retribution. We know why Ukraine did this. The supply line between Iran and Russia is well established, and the Caspian Sea is where most of the drones heading into Russia from Iran head. A message was sent. That sea is no longer safe for shadow fleet ships. Ukraine wants to force Iran into considering the risk involved in cooperating with Russia, perhaps with the goal of severing the tie between the two nations or, at least, damaging it enough to force Iran to pull back on its support.
There’s also the timing to consider, as we mentioned earlier. Ukraine’s strike comes at a time when the relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine is arguably stronger than it has been at any other point during Trump’s second stint. Plus, Ukraine got to take another shot at the Russian shadow fleet here. That has been a clear focus for Ukraine over the past month, as a wave of drone strikes in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have taken out almost 200 fuel tankers, cargo vessels, and tugboats in those two seas. Ukraine likely sees what it did in the Caspian Sea as an extension of the Ukraine war, rather than the opening of a new front that converges two separate wars. But Iran may see things differently. And that’s why we may be about to see regional conflicts blow up into a much wider war.
To Iran, the shadow fleet ships that Ukraine just destroyed aren’t just dime-a-dozen cargo vessels that can be replaced easily. Both carried weapons that Iran needs to be able to sell to Russia to support its ailing economy. The Caspian Sea is a lifeline for Iran as it attempts to endure U.S. bombing campaigns and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz that are designed to cripple Iran’s economy. Though American strikes in Iran grab the headlines, it’s the country’s work to limit the flow of oil out of Iran itself that is doing the very real damage that could force the country’s regime to back down to American pressure. During Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. claimed that the counter-blockade it created in Hormuz was costing Iran $500 million per day. On June 5, Al Jazeera reported that Iran was exporting less than a sixth of the oil that it was selling before the war with the U.S. began. The country’s crude oil exports are now the lowest that they’ve been in six years, and they’ve left an almost $6 billion-wide black hole in the Iranian economy.
Iran International points out something similar for Iran’s non-oil trade, noting that Iran is ultimately the biggest loser from the Hormuz blockades. The outlet points to non-oil trade with China, which was $830 million between March and June 2026. That’s 75% lower than the equivalent period in 2025, which recorded $3.3 billion. Iran has also lost out on trade with its Gulf neighbors. In 2025, trade with those neighbors accounted for 51% of Iran’s total non-oil sales. Now, there’s practically no trade. These Gulf neighbors have no intention of buying from Iran when Iran is actively targeting them with drones and missiles.
The point we’re making here is that Iran is in dire economic straits. Its trade with Russia via the Caspian Sea was one of the few economic lifelines that Iran had as it endures tremendous pressure caused by its war with the U.S. Ukraine just made that lifeline much more dangerous to exploit. That’s a boon for the U.S., which will be happy to see Iran lose yet more money. But for Iran, what happened in the Caspian Sea could trigger an already desperate nation into doing something insane: Attacking Ukraine directly.
As crazy as it sounds, such an attack is theoretically possible. It won’t involve troops. Iran isn’t going to start shipping soldiers into Russia, especially when it needs those soldiers back home to protect against the potential threat of a U.S. ground invasion. But what Iran does have is ballistic missiles and, according to a June 26 piece by the iPaper, the regime is considering a revenge missile strike against Ukraine in response to what happened in the Caspian Sea. The outlet reports on comments made by Babak Taghvaee, who is an Iranian military journalist. “Although the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Aerospace Force has made no official statement, it has reportedly conveyed to several members of parliament and journalists close to the regime that it is considering a retaliatory ballistic missile strike against a strategic target in Kyiv,” Taghvaee tells the iPaper, adding that keeping all of this unofficial would also provide plausible deniability for such an attack. After all, Iranian missiles are already being used by Russia. Iran would just argue that it was Russia that carried out the strike, rather than Iran.
The regime also has missiles that could reach Ukraine, albeit they would have to fly massive distances to do so. The Ghadr, Sejjil, and Emad are all believed to have ranges of about 2,000 kilometers, with the Khorramshahr supposedly being capable of flying up to 4,000 kilometers. If there’s a strike coming, it will likely be that last missile that Iran uses. Iran has a 2,000-kilometer version of the Khorramshahr, which carries a 1,500-kilogram warhead. Presumably, this warhead is smaller on the 4,000-kilometer variant, enabling the longer distance.
If Iran launches any of these missiles at Ukraine, two wars would become one. The U.S., shocked by such a brazen attack and already concerned that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons that could be loaded into one of these missiles, would be forced to act. More strikes on Iran would follow, and Ukraine may finally get the increased aid it wants to continue its fight with Russia. Iran so directly attacking Ukraine could also potentially pave the way for Russian forces or equipment to head into Iran to serve in the defense against the U.S. Two conflicts that have always been somewhat intermingled would become part of the same war. A global war. One that starts with four nations, but could grow to engulf the Gulf, Europe, and many other parts of the world.
The one thing that might stop Iran from retaliating against Ukraine with missiles is the prospect of an escalated war with the U.S. An escalation may just be what America is considering. As Trump considers his options for bringing the conflict in the Gulf to an end, the idea of a ground invasion is still on the table. How would that go and what would it mean for the future? We answer both of those questions in our video, so check it out to learn more. And if you enjoyed this video, remember to subscribe to The Military Show to see more of our analysis of the latest developments in Ukraine and how those developments affect the rest of the world.