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MOU หยุดสงคราม หรือกับดัก เปิดเบื้องหลังเกมอำนาจ สหรัฐฯ - อิสราเอล - อิหร่าน

ทันโลกกับ Trader KP13:34

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Israel is still attacking Lebanon, so will this MOU truly be effective in practice? >> This is it, we have to keep an eye on it from today onwards >> But Iran has to accept the reality that, if the big brother, the US, doesn't come to support, it can't go on as a solo artist. It's like being dissatisfied, but having to endure it for now in this situation. The most important thing is that for these 3 countries, however, the characters are not just these 3 countries: Israel, the US, Iran. The characters are born from the alliances of both sides, with many more added. And most importantly, it involves many countries around the world. Therefore, if anyone acts poorly, at the wrong time, they will become enemies and create enemies everywhere. >> And on all fronts, besides Lebanon, there are questions about Palestine, and the Gaza Strip, right? What is your interpretation of all fronts that must end? >> In fact, all fronts where fighting is occurring, in the context of the US and Iran, it means all battlefields. Israel understands this but pretends not to. [Music] >> Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers. >> We are currently in a period of destroying the current world order. >> Therefore, at the international level, it is very dangerous. >> And if you don't want to miss any good tips, please subscribe. >> For the past 2 years, our financial institution system has remained strong, so we are not doing too badly. >> For those who want to upgrade their knowledge in depth, we now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive [Music] exclusive content and seminars from Trad KP and Team Business Tomorrow. >> So, the war has officially ended, right? The leaders of both sides have already signed the MOU electronically. >> Yes, on paper, it is considered official. [Coughing sound] But in practice, behavior must be closely monitored. It's like they've signed, but it seems there will be undercurrents because the 14 points agreed upon have a chance of being resolved in a shaky manner. And that's why there's a chance of undercurrents, and when the 60 days are up, we have to keep watching. If these undercurrents rise to the surface, it will be troublesome again. So, we really have to monitor closely. Even today, you see, originally, on the 19th, it was definitely going to be signed in Geneva. President Trump put on a show in the White House, signed it immediately, saying this matter cannot be left to the stage because it is a historic stage, he must sign it himself. You see, this is why we say there are always twists and turns. And the concern is the agreement, especially point 1, which states that the US, Iran, and their allies must end all fronts. The term "all fronts" must include Lebanon, which everyone is still worried about, regarding Lebanon, Israel, and Hezbollah. Because the day before yesterday, they were still bombarding each other. This is it. So, on paper, when the leaders have signed, we have to trust that during these 60 days, it should end reasonably well. Yes, yes. >> Yes, but the first point, as Mr. Porn mentioned, is the need to end military operations on all fronts. Israel is still attacking Lebanon, so will this MOU truly be effective in practice? This is it, we have to keep an eye on it from today onwards. Because before that, it was like a digital signing, in principle. But from today, now that President Trump has signed, we have to watch. But at the same time, I believe Israel will find it difficult to move because they have to understand the US. Because if Trump hadn't signed, and it dragged on, it would definitely affect domestic politics in the US, with the midterm elections in November. The longer it takes, the more constrained and pressured he will be, and the more likely he is to lose the midterm elections. Israel also has elections. And Israel wants to achieve a complete victory because it benefits Netanyahu's election points. But Netanyahu has to accept the reality that if the big brother, the US, doesn't support him, he can't go on as a solo artist. It's like being dissatisfied, but having to endure it for now in this situation. And after that, once it's signed and 60 days have passed, we'll reassess whether these gentle undercurrents will rise to the surface again. Yes, yes. >> Yes, from a security perspective, the US and Israel are allies, but this time it seems the MOU only binds the US. Israel has insisted from the beginning that it has no obligation to comply with the agreement between the US and Iran. What does this mean? Is it the strategy of these two countries, or do they have different goals, or are they in conflict? >> It means they haven't settled yet, but it's difficult to separate them. Both countries are tied together. Whether they win or lose, they have to stick together. But they are a bit annoyed, thinking, "This shouldn't be." Because Israel has its clear principles. Regarding nuclear weapons, they absolutely cannot accept it if there is a clear indication that Iran has enriched its capabilities and developed nuclear weapons. They will never accept it. And they look at it, and the big brother, the US, also says they won't accept it. But at this stage, because they haven't been able to enrich it yet, and now there's an agreement that the IAEA will monitor and control it to ensure it's for peaceful nuclear development. So, don't worry too much about this. Let's resolve it step by step. But does Israel trust Iran? No, they don't. But in this situation, they probably have to accept it for now. This is the main point that Israel is very aware of. The US still sees it as a distant possibility. So, there's still time. Yes, yes. >> Yes, but will Iran use the fact that Israel is still attacking Lebanon as a condition for not complying with the MOU? >> Ah, they can use it, but I believe that given the current environment, and most importantly, for these 3 countries, however, the characters are not just these 3 countries: Israel, the US, Iran. The characters are born from the alliances of both sides, with many more added. And most importantly, it involves many countries around the world. Therefore, if anyone acts poorly, at the wrong time, they will become enemies and create enemies everywhere. So, Iran is being cautious. They consider their current coalition to be very strong: China, Russia, North Korea. So, regarding nuclear weapons, they probably want them because they are deterrent weapons. But their allies, these three countries, all have nuclear weapons. So, in the current confrontation, their main weapons are geopolitics, the Strait of Hormuz, and of course, another factor is their allies. Their allies, these three countries, are firmly with them and have nuclear weapons. So, in reality, the environmental context and supporting factors make them strong. It's only the US-Israel side that still has problems. Even the six Arab countries, it's unclear how much they trust each other. So, Iran sees this and thinks, "If this allows us to make a living, if sanctions are lifted, if we can trade oil, if we have income, okay. The US will return the seized $24 billion. Maybe half will be returned, or maybe not. There's a $300 billion fund." Everything sounds good. So, at this moment, I think they are satisfied to receive these benefits, rather than having to confront each other on the battlefield in Lebanon. And Lebanon is not Iran's country, right? It's outside of Iran. So, I still believe that if there is something there, it's not their territory. I believe they will compromise, but they will roar and tell the US to go and discipline Israel, not them. Yes, yes. >> Yes, and on all fronts, besides Lebanon, there are questions about Palestine, and the Gaza Strip, right? What is your interpretation of all fronts that must end? >> In fact, all fronts where fighting is occurring, in the context of the US and Iran, it means all battlefields. Yes, Israel understands this but pretends not to. >> Yes. >> Because it's annoying. It makes them feel like they've lost face, because they are currently at an advantage in the offensive. But in reality, even if they are at an advantage, they are not confident, because the north of their country borders Lebanon. But if they provoke too much and Iran gets annoyed, and supports the Houthis in Yemen again, then Israel might face two fronts. If that happens, they have to think hard. They have to think hard because the big brother, the US, will not jump in at this time until after the election. >> At this point, they have to think hard. So, I believe they are annoyed but have to endure it for now. Yes. >> Yes. So, from Mr. Porn's perspective, the path of Iran's security policy, in reality, Lebanon, Palestine, or the Gaza Strip are not Iran's red lines? >> Ah, no. Because they still want to be freed from sanctions, to be able to make a living, to trade. Truly, lifting sanctions is enough to make them smile. And there's a fund, oh, that makes them smile even more. So, this is enough. And most importantly, the money that was seized will be returned. In fact, any one of these things would make them quite happy. The money that says $24 billion will be returned, they are happy with that. Now, with sanctions lifted, they can make a living, and there will be capital returning, and domestic issues can be resolved. So, there is no better time than this moment, and the whole world is watching. This deal, most people, even within the US, the political faction, are annoyed, saying, "Yes, it's true. In this deal, Iran has the advantage. It gains a lot, it gains more than it's worth." So, if we look at it that way, how can we find trouble for Iran at this moment? At this moment, we have gained everything, and we can further strengthen our capabilities and rebuild our forces. And after 60 days, we'll talk again. Yes, yes. >> Yes, so if we delve into the details of this MOU, the 14 points. Earlier, Mr. Porn said that Iran has the advantage, who gains what, who loses what from these 14 points of the MOU? >> Who? >> Who has gained? Who has lost from the MOU? Who is at an advantage? >> Well, Iran has the advantage overall. But if you ask if the US has lost, in reality, the US has achieved its first objective: dealing with the top leader of Iran. In fact, there was justification to retreat from the beginning, regarding the operation to deal with the top leader. After that, it's considered an internal burden for Iran, which they can't handle themselves. And they have been able to reduce Iran's military capabilities and power to a considerable extent, before they can recover. And of course, they have been able to reduce the capability to develop nuclear weapons, which they believe, in reality, they can't deal with it completely, but they believe they have reduced Iran's capability, so it will take a long time for them to refine and develop it for military nuclear weapons. From the US perspective, if they look at this, they believe they actually have a chance to retreat. But the most important thing now is that it involves their domestic politics. But the most important thing is that they see the global trend, their allies around the world. If they continue to fight, the issue of oil will affect the whole world, and in the end, they will lose their allies. So, they are looking at it from the perspective of maintaining their alliances and being viewed positively by the world. Even though it might seem like they are losing face, in reality, they have sufficient reasons. So, I believe it's like a compromise, a balance for each other. But overall, we have to admit that Iran has gained more, definitely. But if you ask if it has made the US lose so much face that it collapses, no. It's only to a certain extent, but they have reasons to answer the world. Yes, yes. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive exclusive content and seminars from [Music] PR KP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please subscribe.