Transcription
And hello to everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Sunday, October 12, 2025, with a rather mixed map. Anyway, we know where we are, right? We took an extremely hard hit. Once again, we had record liquidations. I don't know if you saw yesterday's daily, but don't hesitate to go see it if you haven't. The culprits, you know, are both, hop, here, we'll see it right away, China and the United States, who are still in confrontation. We'll go look at that. And especially what interests us today, well, it's whether we will regain everything we have lost. Because look, if we look at the week, we took an extremely hard hit. Well, we don't care about that at all, but look, we took an extremely hard hit. -36% on S, -29% on dot, -30% on sui, in short, generally speaking, we took it really very, very hard, and you know it, I think, given the state of your wallets.
So, if we go to the charts, and even if we have retraced a good part of the wick, for the moment, we are stagnating here. Anyway, we are waiting for next week. Here, I am on Total 3. So, well, we can clearly see that despite having fallen very sharply and having retraced a good part of the wick, so more than half of the wick, well, for the moment, we are in a digestion phase. And precisely, what are we waiting for? We are waiting for next week. It's the same for BTC, it's the same for Ethereum. We are waiting. We are really in full digestion, waiting to see what will happen. Perhaps today, we will have a movement to prepare for next week, a downward or upward movement, right? It will be extremely difficult to judge this in relation to the context between China and the United States. We will see how the markets react.
In the meantime, I told you that we could revisit here the 107,000. Why? Because well, we still had a liquidity pool from people who were long and who tried to play the rebound here. We can see it again. Hop, just quickly here. You see that there is money to be recovered up to 107,000. These are all the people who were long. So there is liquidity to be recovered if we come back here. In addition, I told you that generally daily wicks, meaning large wicks like this, if I switch to daily here, hop, here, daily wicks were often filled by 50%. So, the blue line here is 50%. I did exactly the same thing on Ethereum, except that we have already been there on Ethereum, and you see that I placed a trade. Hop, we have already filled the wick here by 50%. I placed a trade, and you see that we reacted within it. And so, well, currently, I am in profit on Ethereum. I have already moved to BE, right? I protected myself immediately on Ethereum. Why? Because we could have another bearish attack and fill more than 50% of the wick. But generally, as I told you, we have reactions at 50% of daily wicks here. So, well, you perfectly see the example with Ethereum. I told you this in yesterday's daily about our friend BTC. We haven't been there yet, but there is an interest in coming to look for it here. That's why on Ethereum, I moved to BE quickly. Why? Because well, if we come to look for it here on BTC, probably on Ethereum, we will go a little lower. Which is still positive because firstly, I already told you yesterday, but what is positive is that for the moment, we have still closed above. You see the daily day here, we closed above the previous lows here. So this remains a rather positive data point.
Now, what we need to see is the weekly close here. This will be very important. We must not close below these previous lows. Even this one, if we could close above this wick here, that would still be rather positive. But well, again, we will see. And the second thing is what? It's that well, regarding the CME, look, the CME here, we had stopped at the level of 114,000. Today, we are at 111,000. What does that mean? It means there will be a bullish gap. That is to say, we will wake up, we will be here. If we don't move, of course, there will be movements during the day. We will see. But if we stay around the price where we are currently on BTC, that is to say around 111,000 or even 110,000, 107,000 if we go a little lower and we go to look for precisely hop, this wick here. If we were to look for liquidity, we could look for this liquidity if we do that. In short, if generally speaking, we continue to go down, then what will be interesting is that we will have a bullish CME gap. And yes, because we will reopen in this zone here. So we will have a big bullish CME gap in this zone, and that, on the other hand, will be positive. Especially since, as you know, there is now a lot of liquidity to the north. Look, firstly here, I switched to one week. So yes, we still have a little liquidity to recover despite having everything rectified. Look here, we recovered everything, we ate everything. So here, we have recreated liquidity, we are in the process of recreating liquidity both to the north and to the south. Well, it's normal, people are repositioning themselves. But look how much we are armored to the north. Here, we are armored. To the south, there is basically nothing left, but to the north, we are truly armored. And here, I am on one week. If I switch to 3 months, for example, I showed you that yesterday as well. We are truly, truly armored to the north. Here, hop, now we see better that here, we are completely empty. There is nothing left since this wick recovered everything, so we have nothing left. On the other hand, hop, when we look to the north here, we are completely armored with liquidity.
So, well, I know that I am currently being asked, but how can you remain bullish with everything that has happened? Firstly, I try not to react emotionally because, of course, if I look at my wallet today and react emotionally, well, all I want to do is press sell, sell everything, recover what's left, and get out of the market. But if I look at things factually, well, I see that there is still a lot of liquidity to recover to the north. So there is an interest for the market to go and get this liquidity to the north. To the south, well, we have recovered all the liquidity. So why would we go and look for even more lower? Now, attention, that doesn't mean we won't have another wick, right? There could be, depending on the macro and geopolitical news we will have next week, we could have a second bearish attack. I'm not saying it can't happen. On the other hand, well, I tell myself that there is still a lot, a lot of interest to the north. So, well, naturally, I remain relatively bullish. In addition, the fact that we haven't broken the lows for the moment, we don't have an inversion of structure. So, well, for the moment, well, there is nothing that makes me say that we are going into a bear market, that it's over and that we will leave all the liquidity to the north and go get it in 4 years. In short, for the moment, I tell you that I remain totally bullish. Well, of course, this is my opinion. This is how I see things. I know it's very psychologically difficult, and anyway, that's the market's goal. It's there to break you psychologically.
And if we go and look, look at the Fear and Greed index, I told you that we would continue to fall if, well, we went down in price on BTC and didn't go up. And well, that's what happened. Look, yesterday we were at 35 in the Fear and Greed index, and now it continues to fall to 31, and if BTC continues to fall, well, tomorrow we will still be below. It's possible we'll be below 30, we might be at 29, at 28. In short, we will be in fear. Especially since, well, we are really waiting for next week to see what will happen. Between the two presidents. So we'll go there, right? We'll come back to it right after. But there, the essential thing is that you see that we are in fear, and the more we are in fear, the more it means there are capitulations. There are a lot of people who have capitulated. I even think that possibly, you also saw the Ukrainian YouTuber influencer who apparently shot himself in his car. So, well, it's certain, there are people who have lost absolutely everything, and it's extremely difficult. Me, personally, I was not in leveraged trading. Now, if I had a trade on Ethereum, but I just got stopped out, I didn't lose everything or anything like that. But for all the people who are in spot, yes, it's difficult right now, but we haven't been liquidated. The essential thing is that we can start again, and I remind you that the market can start again very quickly, but currently, the fact that we are in fear, well, that's a very good thing. We have a lot of liquidity to the north, we have people who are in fear, we have a lot of people who have capitulated. All of this is good for a really huge restart. I remind you that the market's goal is to make as many people capitulate as possible, to bring them down, to bring them to their knees, and once people leave the market, when everyone really no longer believes in it, that's when we explode. And well, currently, I have the impression that we are a bit in that phase. When I see, well, the comments or when I see what I can read on X, for example, well, there is really a very, very strong capitulation.
What we can also see is that, look, we are still continuing to liquidate. We had 19 billion in liquidations, but but you see, we continue for yesterday's billion in liquidations, which is still enormous. For a Saturday, we did almost nothing, right? Look at the chart, we haven't moved, we've done almost nothing. But I told you, all the people who were hop here long, who played long again, well, there was liquidity to be sought. So what does the market do? Well, it goes lower and lower to precisely recover this liquidity. We see it because look, 397 million longs liquidated once again, but these are all the people who played the rise here with the wick and who put relatively tight stop losses, well, they are being hunted with precisely the small market correction, and there is up to 107,000 here. That's why there is an interest for the market to come here. In short, will we go there or not? That's another matter. But in the meantime, we see that longs are still being liquidated. Of course, there are shorts that are also being liquidated. 6 million, which makes a total of 564 million in liquidations once again. So yes, that's still a lot.
Now, I know I'll be told that I'm always optimistic, that anything can happen, and all that. In any case, I see that we are going up. B, for the moment, as I said earlier, as long as there is no data that makes me say that we are going to go much lower, well, I remain indeed bullish. Of course, I will also remain factual. That is to say, if tomorrow here we close at the level of 100,000 or even below, well, I would say to myself, well, that smells a bit bad because we have broken the structure, we are entering a bearish trend, I would be less serene, that's for sure. But for the moment, as I told you, we haven't broken the lows here. We have a lot of liquidity to the north, and above all, we reacted to news. We reacted, I remind you, hop, to this news. So it's Trump who wants to impose tariffs, so 130% on China starting November 1st with new export restrictions on key software. So naturally, this is a major confrontation, a major trade war between China and the United States, two economic superpowers, I remind you. So naturally, this scares the markets extremely, but still, but still. Firstly, there is a standoff, right? So China accuses President Trump and the United States of having intensified the trade war. China asserts its firmness in the face of American tariffs. We do not want a tariff war, but we are not afraid of it. So, of course, they are reacting to what Donald Trump is doing, and all of that is frightening the markets very strongly. But there is still, attention, look, Trump confirming that he has not canceled his meeting with Xi and that things could change. What does that mean? It means that firstly, they will still talk. For the moment, they are just throwing things at each other on Twitter, so to speak, but the fact is that the real discussion will not happen on Twitter. The real discussion, they will pick up the phone or they will meet and try to agree on a deal. Will they succeed? That's another matter. And it's precisely what the market is pricing in, that they say that if there is an acceleration of the trade war and it worsens, well, the markets prefer to de-risk before it happens because it causes cascades of liquidation, which we have seen, anyway. That's why, also, next week will be extremely important, both to follow this and to see how the markets react. Have they had a big liquidation cascade and will they rebound upwards because they have already priced it in, so to speak, or will there be a bearish continuation? Well, it will depend firstly on what happens between the two presidents here and also on whether the news has already been fully priced in or not. Well, clearly, we cannot predict. It will be hyper, hyper random, and we will only be able to observe next week what happens. So we will see next week, and also, don't hesitate to click the subscribe button to not miss any future dailies.
Well, again, yes, there's all that, but there's still other good news. And good news, what is it? Well, for example, we have Tom Lee from Bitmin who continues to buy, who took advantage of the drop to buy more Ethereum. He perfectly understood, right? Anyway, they are businessmen. They perfectly know the saying, buy the fear and sell the euphoria. Here, we are clearly in fear, as we saw, particularly on the Fear and Greed index. Well, Bitmin has bought an additional 27,256 Ethereum. Well, he is clearly taking advantage of the sales. Personally, I also bought Ethereum because I think it's at a very good price, and if the markets rebound very strongly, well, I think we could see our Ethereum double at a minimum. Rounding up to 4000, we could aim for between 7500 and 8000 dollars. Well, these are my predictions. So I think it's a good opportunity if you want to make a small x on an asset that is not necessarily risky, so to speak. Be careful, because all cryptocurrencies are considered risky assets. So that's still good news. You see, if we have companies that are buying the fear, well, that's good because they still believe in a future rise. So, well, that makes me positive as well.
We continue with Morgan Stanley, which is removing the restriction on Bitcoin and crypto investments for all its clients starting October 15th, including those with retirement accounts. Imagine, this means billions more can enter the crypto ecosystem. This is hyper bullish. Of course, this is news that is completely flying under the radar given what has happened, it's obvious, and given the conflict between the United States and China, but it is still excellent, excellent news, and it's like opening the floodgates of liquidity to be able to enter the crypto market. This is extremely bullish, and from when? It's from October 15th. So October 15th is in 3 days. It's next week. So very positive news. So, I take this again as news that could take us much higher.
So, that's it for today's Sunday daily. I hope, in any case, that you are all doing well. Don't hesitate again to click the subscribe button. We will follow all of this in next week's dailies. It will be extremely, extremely important to see if there will be a bearish continuation or if, well, it will breathe quickly and we will rebound. Currently, I think, well, we could have another bearish leg at the beginning of next week and rebound very strongly at the end of next week. In short, we will see again, I am not a fortune teller. We will have to factually see what happens on the market. And we will also have to wait to see what happens between China and the United States.
On that, I'll leave you. I wish you an excellent Sunday, and I'll tell you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!