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Bitcoin ย่อ ช่วงเก็บก่อนกระชาก ? (ผศ.ดร.อุดมศักดิ์ รักวงษ์วาน)

ทันโลกกับ Trader KP45:34

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[Music] [Music] [Music] Hello and welcome, all viewers, to Business Tomorrow. Today, I am Phon Chanidapa, your host. But before we delve into today's live discussion, please remember to press the Subscribe button and follow us to encourage Business Tomorrow to continue bringing you good news and information as always. Indeed, over the past week, we have seen images of Bitcoin that are likely pleasing to many. But today, we will examine the overall picture of the situation and what has transpired. Furthermore, as many have seen and continue to follow, there are issues regarding, well, and also on the side of Michael Saylor, who consistently brings us topics of interest. Therefore, today, we are honored to have with us Professor Em, Assistant Professor Dr. Udomsak Rakwongwan. Professor, thank you for joining us for today's live discussion. Welcome to our live session today. Professor, hello. >> Hello. >> Yes, Professor, thank you very much for honoring us with your presence. My first question, Professor, how do you view the market right now? >> Well, actually, for those who have been following, I have been writing about this for a while. Honestly, I think I was mistaken about one part this time, but it was a mistake we were prepared for. If you recall, we discussed Bitcoin Halving. Bitcoin Halving, to provide some background for those who might not be following, occurs every 4 years. After the halving, typically within a year to a year and a half, the price tends to rise quite sharply, and then it falls. However, last time, I thought there was a possibility that we would encounter what is called an extended halving, meaning the halving cycle would last longer. Normally, it would be about a year to a year and a half before it starts to decline. This might extend to two to two and a half years because financial institutions have entered the market, and they move quite slowly. So, at that time, my outlook was that after a year and a half, when the price had already risen to over 100,000, there was still a chance it would continue to rise, but also a chance it would revert to the halving cycle, as it has consistently done throughout Bitcoin's history. There have been 4 previous cycles. So, what was the solution then? It was that there must be something to protect against risk. At that time, I suggested holding options. If it falls, it's like buying insurance. We use the profits to buy insurance, and we won't lose the profits we've already made. But now, the market has settled it. I think it's clear now that the halving is still valid, and it remains valid to this day. Why? Because the price of Bitcoin went up to a top of around 120,000, and then it flowed back down. So, the question is, now that the market has risen considerably, reaching over 80,000 and then falling back down, is this the buying point? Is this the point to enter? Let me do this. I'd like to share the chart for a moment. Let me show you this chart. It's simple. I haven't put any indicators on it. I've just used lines to show you. You can see the first purple line. That was from the previous cycle, around April of the year before last. It would be around 2024. So, April 2024. Now, what do you see? After the halving, it rose until here, reaching a top around August. That's about April, May, June, July, August, so about 1 year and 4 months. This is within the 1 to 1.5-year halving cycle we discussed. It rose to a top from the mid-70,000s to 120,000. And the halving, it has three phases. The first phase is after the Bitcoin Halving, it will rise sharply for about a year to a year and a half. Before the Bitcoin Halving, for about a year to a year and a half, it will be a period of sideways up, meaning the price starts to rise. So, what does this mean? It means if we're talking about the halving, it's about 1 year to 1.5 years before and after that will be the period when Bitcoin enters a bull market. So, now I am pointing to the future. The next halving will be around 2028. If I look back at a similar timeframe, a similar period, it would be around November 2026. What does this mean? It means I have spoken with many people in the industry, both domestically and internationally. Most of them, especially those at the project lead level, those who run exchanges and large projects, they all have a similar view to last time, when the market was sluggish, everyone said similar things. They saw the bull market occurring in November. And it's not just this. There are other supporting factors, but the main support is the halving. What are the supporting factors? For example, the Fed is about to change. Now, with the Fed changing, we might see a shock once from the Fed's change. We don't know what the Fed will announce, but certainly, in the long term, we will see more clarity on the Fed's changes, including other factors, such as the enactment of various laws, whether it's the Charity Act or others. We will discuss them later, but if we focus on the main points, it's the halving. If we observe, what we observe is that the period when this will occur is around November. But the price, do you see? In the past cycle, it started to show signs of rising. It rose from around 63,000 to the early 80,000s. So, the question is, will it go up from here? Will it rise from this point all the way to the green line, to the purple halving line? And will it continue for another year and a half? The answer is, I don't know. But I will say this: many people in the past have said to be prepared. What does that mean? It means it might fall again. This is what many people are saying: it should fall again, down to the black line that I have drawn, which is around 55,000, 57,000, 58,000 in that area. We might touch that area around the green line here, and then it will start, like this, like a bull run once, and then a sharp decline again, down to the green line, and then start to move sideways up. If history repeats itself, meaning the halving is still valid for the fifth cycle, what happens is it shouldn't rise immediately right now. Because right now, according to the cycle, we are still in a bear market. It's still in a bear market, and it hasn't fallen enough. It has only fallen a bit. From 120,000 down to 60,000, about 60,000. That's about half. Is that a lot? It's not a lot. So, the question is, there are two possibilities. The first is that it might fall to the black line, which is around the late 50,000s. And after that, it will be a full bull market. The second is that it won't fall anymore. Why? Because what I'm saying is not new. Anyone in crypto knows what I'm talking about. November is the month when the bull market will begin again. What does this mean? It means many people have started accumulating before November, and they have some ammunition left to accumulate during that period. So, this is a strategy that I believe is a strategy that people who have been in the industry for a long time are starting to adopt. I myself am doing the same. I've started accumulating since this period, up until about a month ago, gradually accumulating little by little, but not in large amounts. Why? Because there's still a chance of a sharp dip again. But if it doesn't dip and goes up, then we've already started accumulating. The market has moved on. It's called pricing in. We've already thought about the halving. So, it won't give us the lowest point to accumulate anymore. At least we've accumulated some. And we still have at least 2 years for Bitcoin to run again, to have another bull run for profit-taking. So, if we play according to the cycle, simply put, for me, this period is about gradually accumulating, DCAing continuously, but perhaps with larger DCA amounts, accumulating continuously. In November, we will see. If there's another sharp dip, I will separate it into two scenarios. If there's another sharp dip, I will accumulate a larger amount. And I will continue to accumulate. Observe this: by the end of the year to early next year, if the price doesn't return to a bull market, which I believe it should, otherwise everyone will lose. This is a game theory perspective. If the price doesn't return to a bull market, we might need to consider stepping back. Why? Because we are playing in a major cycle, the halving cycle, right? According to the principle, if it hits the green line in the next cycle, and it's November, it should be sideways up. It shouldn't dip sharply again. At that time, everyone will be in the mood. Those who left crypto and used their money for other things will start flowing back into crypto. Everyone will be in a bullish mood. If that doesn't happen and it falls sharply, what happens? I think we need to re-evaluate. Don't just listen to the first part about buying in November and holding for 3 years. If it falls sharply in November or December, it means the halving has failed. The halving is not as expected. We need to re-evaluate what happened and adjust the plan. Similarly, if we accumulate now and it doesn't dip and goes up, becoming a bull market immediately, passing the green line and heading towards the purple line, we might need to consider that we might not have to wait a year to a year and a half after the purple line to start taking profits. Why? Because things are happening faster than expected. So, the run that will happen might not be as long as we thought. But if it goes according to plan, meaning it falls one more time, I actually want it to fall one more time, down to around 55,000, 56,000, 60,000. And then rise. This will be a strong bull run, and it will follow the cycle precisely. We can predict that in about 2 to 3 years, it will be a quite strong bull market. >> Yes, Professor. However, I would like to inform viewers that today's discussion is not investment advice. Investing in digital assets carries risks. Please invest according to your risk tolerance. Now, Professor, given the current situation, another thing many people are likely wondering about is the ongoing war. It seems to be ending and not ending, with various news. Professor, do you think the war situation will continue to affect the overall market? >> It still has an effect, definitely. This is another reason why many people might think it's not a full bull market yet. Why? Because the war situation is still putting pressure on us right now. We don't know what will happen. Including inflation caused by the war. Of course, there's the initial phase where inflation is caused by the war. The war is happening now, right? Oil prices are rising. Oil prices are rising, goods are becoming more expensive. We see this clearly in our country. The price of eggs has almost doubled due to transportation. This will put pressure on inflation to rise. When inflation is high, the central bank's method of managing inflation has initial steps. The first steps they take are to maintain interest rates or even raise them. Why? To stop people from spending. To bring prices back to normal. Therefore, this is why in May, in May, which is January, February, month 5. If we talk about November, we still have 6 months left. So, it's possible that this period is still when the war is in its middle stages, and we're starting to see a glimmer of hope. It probably won't last much longer. If the war ends, inflation might take effect for another 3 to 4 months. People will still be concerned about inflation. They might think, "Let's wait," as Jerome Powell said last time before leaving. He said they don't have any intention of raising interest rates, but they don't think they should rush to lower them. Why? Because they haven't seen how severe the impact of inflation is. If they lower them too quickly, and the impact of inflation is too severe, raising interest rates will shock the market again. Therefore, delaying is better. So, this is a period where everything will be interconnected. In the next 6 months, we should see inflation. If the war ends, and there are no negative factors, if there are no further negative factors putting pressure on it, people will see what the worst case is. The Fed will start to ease and move forward. Therefore, we will see a picture of easing. As I said, perhaps around October, November. And the war during October-November, we think it won't drag on for too long. We hope it won't drag on until then. Otherwise, I guarantee that the oil situation in our country, let alone Bitcoin, even daily living expenses in our country will likely be difficult. This morning, I saw oil prices at 50, 60, over 50. So, it will likely be difficult for everyone. >> Yes, Professor. Today we have discussed the halving and the war. Another group of funds, let's say, that many people are likely anticipating is from institutions and large investors. Professor, what are your thoughts on how much of their capital we might see entering the market? >> We are starting to see some movement back in ETFs, through institutional investors. But it's not a strong, explosive return. It's a return where you can see that they haven't abandoned the market, and fund flows are starting to come in. Let me share the fund flows so you can see. Here, I've brought up the fund flows to show you. You can see that before this period, the fund flows were running from the bottom to the top, reaching around 1 billion. Do you see? The upper and lower lines represent the extreme. During strong buying periods, fund flows were around 1 billion for many consecutive days. During strong selling periods, it was also around 1 billion for quite a few days. In the past month, we've seen fund flows running between approximately 250-500 million. While negative fund flows have had fewer bars, it's clearly visible. The maximum was only around 250 million. What does this mean? It means that in the past month, the positive fund flows have been running around 250-500. And on days with negative flows, there were negative days, but fewer than positive days. And on negative days, it was only around 0-250. What does this mean? It means that in terms of net flow for the month, we are starting to see fund flows returning. If we look at the chart, you can see that during periods when the market rose sharply, these are all bull runs. During periods when the market rose sharply, it was green with quite high fund flows. And there were red fund flows. What does this mean? It means that I think in this period, institutions will have a group that sees things similarly to what I've said. That this is a period that is interesting to re-enter due to the halving. Because right now, it's very strong. I'm telling you, if it has passed the fourth cycle and it's still valid as I've explained, as it has been every time throughout Bitcoin's history, which is 4 years of bull, bear, sideways up, bull, bear, sideways up, lasting about a year plus or minus in each cycle, then it becomes stronger. If the previous cycle was valid, and this cycle is also valid, it becomes even stronger. Because it becomes a meeting point for everyone to invest. So, what's happening is an indication that a number of institutional investors are starting to do what I've said. They are starting to diversify their investments, but not in a massive way. They are gradually investing little by little. Why? Because they are concerned that if it reaches November and then reverses to a bull market, or if it doesn't rise at all, and just gradually rises from here, they will have accumulated less. So, I want you to keep an eye on ETFs. Keep an eye on what I've said to the general public. See if, from this point onwards, in a while, there might be another sharp dip. But we will start to see positive fund flows. Don't just look at the net. Look at the green bars that are positive. We will start to see more positive bars, and gradually DCA in while the price is falling. >> Yes, Professor. Beyond the issues we've discussed, another piece of news that many people are watching is the Bitcoin Reserve. There's speculation it might come around National Day. Professor, if this happens, how much will it impact the Bitcoin market? Will it be good news for investors? Because, as we've seen in the past, Bitcoin might have been affected by seizures or other issues. If there's a real purchase this time, will it be good news for the market to be cheerful? >> If it happens, I think it will be good news. The problem is, from what I've seen, it might not be that significant. It might just be a short-term narrative boost, saying, "Hey, there's still activity. It's moving forward." If they really want to buy, I've marked the point. If they really want to buy, I think buying at the end of the year would be a catalyst. Why? Because it's a purchase that can truly drive the price up. Why? Because at the end of the year, don't forget, if there's a purchase of Bitcoin, which is currently in a process of management, and it might end next year, or in another year. What happens is it's accumulating catalysts, whether it's the end of the war, the reduction of interest rates, the change of the Fed, moving towards the National Reserve, which is a new catalyst. Everything doesn't seem to be finished today. But it shows progress in movement. Of course, this is why positive impacts are flowing in. Because eventually, they have to buy. Eventually, interest rates have to fall. Eventually, the war has to end. But if these things happen together at the end of the year or early next year, it will be a catalyst. Why? Because if it ends now, many people will say, "Hey, but November might have another sharp dip. It's not yet the halving. It's still falling. Hey, let's not buy yet." Do you see the picture? So, the catalyst should come at a point when everyone is in the right place. For example, in November or early next year. "Hey, this is a bull market now." And with good news, everyone will pull money from other zones and flow back into cryptocurrency, into Bitcoin. What will rise? I want you to see that the first group to rise will be Bitcoin itself. While Ethereum, Solana, BNB will still be very much the same. Right now, we are still in the exact same narrative. So, because the narrative is clear, it's the same old narrative. Even if I prefer other coins over Bitcoin, right now, I have to DCA into Bitcoin first. Why? Because the narrative says so. Bitcoin has to rise first. And after DCAing into Bitcoin for a while, entering next year, we can then consider rotating Bitcoin, which has risen a lot, into smaller coins. So, I think ultimately, don't go against the narrative. You still have to follow the narrative. Including the National Reserve. I see it improving, but we don't know what will be announced yet. But I believe it will be a positive announcement, but not yet an announcement to buy, or to buy in a significant way with government funds. But I think it's coming. It's on its way, and it's an activity that still makes us believe that everything we've discussed is still true. >> Yes, Professor. And on the US side, there's another issue: the Charity Act. We've been discussing this for quite some time. Many people have expectations from the Charity Act. If it truly materializes, Professor, what form do you think it will take? Will it be as investors expect? And this time, do you think people have already priced it in from the early news, or will it still affect Bitcoin? >> I think when there's news like this, it usually gets priced in twice. The first time is when we know it's going to happen, that it's likely to happen, but it keeps getting postponed. We need to watch closely. Watch the months of April, May, June, July, around month 7, month 6, month 7. It keeps getting postponed because there's quite a lot of resistance in enacting this set of laws. But there will be two sets, two rounds. The first round is when it's definitely coming. This time, it's partially priced in. But after a few months, we forget. The price will come back down according to the market, and so on. The second round is more intense. I believe it will be another catalyst at the end of this year or early next year. That is, when it actually comes out. When it actually comes out, what happens is it will take effect. The effect we priced in during the initial period when it came down, it has all come down. The Charity Act that we are hyping up is during a period when the market was doing well, and then the market fell apart. This means the Charity Act we discussed has already been factored in. The next round is when it actually happens. When it actually happens, it means clarity will emerge on what is a digital asset and what is a security. You might ask, why do we need clarity? What's the problem? The problem is this: it's divided into two parts. One is regulated by one group, and the other is regulated by another group. And today, both groups are positive towards crypto. But because they are in two groups, different laws apply. What happens is if there's no clarity, institutions won't dare to act. Why? Because we don't know which basket this belongs to. If you act and you're in the wrong basket, you might be held accountable and face significant problems. So, when there is clarity on which basket it belongs to, I think institutions won't mind which basket. They can do it all. They just need to know which channel to go through to proceed correctly. Let me give an example. Let's take Thailand as an example. The question is, tokenizing gold, turning gold into a digital asset or gold? Do you see the picture? Because if it's gold, it has to go through what? It has to go through gold brokers, and gold brokers will manage it. Because we have brokers who are gold brokers licensed to trade gold. But when gold is tokenized into a coin, it's on a crypto broker. So, where should it actually be? Because if there's no clarity, the problem is that large players won't dare to act. But by chance, our large players have consulted with the SEC and are handling cases on a case-by-case basis. But the Charity Act won't be case-by-case. It will be a clear directive on what is what. Let me give another example. Tokenized gold is clearly classified as a digital asset because it can be traded on crypto exchanges. What about tokenized stocks? What will they be? Do you see? When asked what tokenized stocks are, the question is, today, we still can't answer. Even in our country, we can't answer. Because we say, if we look at the substance, it's a stock. This means it has to go back to brokers who are stockbrokers. Do you see the picture? And crypto brokers will be separated. It won't be crypto's. The question is, I believe there are people who want to tokenize their stocks and turn them into crypto, into tokens, and sell them generally, outside of the SET, outside of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. And this is not just something Thailand wants to do. The whole world wants to do it. Why? Because we can distribute stocks and sell them globally. We no longer need to open American stockbrokers. And this is already starting to happen. It's starting to occur. When it becomes clear, these things will flourish greatly. There will be assets, whether it's funds, stocks, gold, limited companies, small real-world projects. They will emerge and flourish on the blockchain. This will be another wave that will cause money to flow into the blockchain, into cryptocurrencies, as I envision. And it will require all the infrastructure of crypto projects, whether it's chains, DeFi, staking, lending, etc., on the blockchain. So, as I've shown you, it's not just about what the law is, but its impact at the end significantly affects the market. I hope the last time was a demonstration round, showing that the law was coming but not really enacted. I hope this time will be the round where the market prices in the price increase. In the next 4 years, from the end of this year to the next 2-3 years, it will likely be driven by actual products, driven by real money, driven by actual launches. Because now, we are starting to see stocks on cryptocurrency, on the blockchain. >> Yes, Professor. Now, let's move to the influencers in the industry. Previously, we saw Michael Saylor post an image and say that the "Winter" is over. Professor Em, how much weight do you give to that? >> Oh, it has no weight. Because [laughter] because he has never, well, what do you call it? Those who cheer him on, they cheer. Honestly, those who cheer him on, they cheer. The price always goes up. Those who curse him, they curse him. They've been cursing since the price was 10,000 dollars to 100,000 dollars. They curse every day. So, I think it's too early. To be honest, it's too early to say that the Crypto Winter is over. Why? Because, as the chart I showed you, if we go by the statistics, even if there are only 5 points, they are very significant. The 4 very significant points have not been reached yet. We haven't reached the starting point of the runway for the rise. It's actually 2028. So, if we go back, it's more than a year. So, it should be around November. But if we go all the way back to May, it's too far. November is still 6 months away. What does this mean? It means if we're playing according to the halving cycle, it will be a 2-year cycle, and then a bull market for another year and a half. Is that possible? A 3.5-year rise? It's quite difficult to be possible. But it doesn't mean it's impossible. It's possible. As I said, it might not fall back to the black line anymore, the late 50,000s. We might not see that anymore. But it's just a probability. But if we say the Crypto Winter is over, I think we can't say it with full confidence. And I think investors are doing the same right now. They haven't entered fully. They are entering gradually, and gradually adding more. And it becomes a chicken and egg situation. When investors gradually enter, planning to invest heavily if they have money, and then invest heavily again, the market doesn't rise sharply. Do you see the picture? So, it's like a chicken and egg situation, supporting each other gradually. But if it's over, that's good. I have no problem with it. DCA in, it's over, and that's fine. We've accumulated. If it's not over yet, that's also good. We can accumulate more in November, in October, November, December, we can accumulate more. But don't rush to declare that it's over to that extent. Because if it dips sharply, I'm not worried about anything else. I'm worried that many people, when they see the price is about to rise sharply, become greedy. When they become greedy, they think, "This is the point of a sharp rise. Let's go in fully." Some even use leverage. What happens? It means right now it's 70,000-80,000. If it dips back to the late 50,000s or early 60,000s or late 50,000s again, it means we might not be able to tolerate it. Our portfolio might be down by about 40%. If we use leverage, it might be down by about 70%. We can't tolerate it and sell at that point. And then it drags on. And there's a statistic that it will rise for another 1, 2, 3 years. It means we miss the opportunity because we were too hasty. But if we enter now, not fully, but gradually, at least we can hold on. We can hold on for another 2-3 years. The halving is still valid, so we have a chance to profit in this cycle. >> Yes, Professor. Meanwhile, there's news that Michael Saylor might be selling Bitcoin to pay dividends. Professor, do you think it will be risky if Michael Saylor actually sells Bitcoin, or what will be the impact? >> Actually, I wish he would sell. I wish he would sell today. Sell right now. Why? Because, don't forget, one thing that has been putting a lot of pressure on the crypto market is MicroStrategy, or its new name, Strategy. It has been putting a lot of pressure. Why? Because everyone worries, "If they don't have money, will they sell Bitcoin? If they sell Bitcoin, will it collapse? What will they do?" Everyone is constantly worried about Strategy, more so than anything else. Michael Saylor himself, I would call him stubborn. Stubborn means he not only buys Bitcoin with his own company's money, but he also takes on personal responsibility. This is a company, so in a case-by-case scenario, if it goes bankrupt, it's just bankruptcy. He buys with the company, and then he borrows money from friends to buy. Not enough. He issues derivatives, like STRs, that they issue. He offers a return of 10%, maybe he can defer payment, and so on, to get money in continuously without end or problem. It turns out that today, the burden is on the money that needs to be paid continuously, while he himself has no revenue. His company has revenue, but it's not profitable, and there's not enough money to pay. So, he can only rely on Bitcoin rising. The problem is, if Saylor doesn't pay the percentage he promised to pay every year, if he doesn't pay, it will be very difficult for him to raise money in the future. Do you see the picture? Because borrowing money, like I borrow money from you, Phon. I borrow 100,000. I promise to give you 12% interest per year, 10% every year, paid monthly. What does this mean? It means if one day I start not paying, and the contract says if I don't pay, I can defer it and pay next year. But if one day I don't pay, and I go to you, Phon, to ask for more money, will you give me money? The answer is, we probably won't. Because we're worried that the old debt hasn't been paid. So, Saylor, I think if he's not stubborn, he must choose to sell some Bitcoin, not a lot, just a small amount, just enough to get the money to pay you, Phon. And then what? Suppose I borrow 100,000 from you, Phon. I use that 100,000 to buy Bitcoin. I sell only 10 to pay you, Phon. And I use the 100,000 from you, Phon, to buy. Do you see the picture? Because it's sure. It makes people think, "Hey, he's paying." So, next time, they'll get more money. So, it's like selling a small portion to pay everyone, so they continue to believe in his credit and can borrow more money. If he does this, I think Saylor has chosen a good time. If he's going to do it, he should do it now. Because now is the time when the market is falling, likely the end of the bear market. And at this time, of course, Michael Saylor selling the first Bitcoin will have an impact on the market. Let it fall, let it end, so everyone knows that Strategy can sell Bitcoin. After it falls, it might have an effect for 2-3 months. And then what? After that, people will think, "Oh, it's okay. Saylor can borrow. At least he's paying interest. If Bitcoin falls or he doesn't have money to repay, he'll sell some Bitcoin to pay us back." After that, by the end of the year to early next year, I want to see it. Everything will return to the same timeframe. End of the year to early next year, when the Bitcoin market is in a bull run, everyone will be bullish. Saylor will go and borrow money to buy Bitcoin. People will be willing to lend him money. Why? Because his credit is not damaged. He's still paying interest. And Bitcoin is rising, so people want to participate. But if Saylor refuses to sell now and sells next year, that's concerning. Because it will interrupt the process of Bitcoin running, and we will interrupt it. Do you see the picture? If he's going to do it, he should do it now. Let it end, and then from the end of the year to early next year, we can run for a long time, say 2-3 years. I think Saylor sees the same picture as me. What I'm saying is not new. It's not strange. It's something that everyone in the industry is saying similarly, within a similar timeframe. >> Yes, so instead of many people fearing that it might be a sell-off of Bitcoin, it's actually a step of selling this much to pay dividends, and then seizing future opportunities. >> He sells a little. He doesn't sell it off completely. That would be self-destructive. Why? Because if Saylor sells it off completely, don't forget, Saylor's assets, in Strategy, are mostly Bitcoin. So, if he sells it off and it loses its shape, all his assets will collapse immediately. So, he sells only a little to get money to pay dividends, to pay interest. He has already set aside some money to pay. But I think he sells to show investors that he can pay. So, when he talks to investors, he can say, "Hey, I'm giving you 10%. Worst case, if I don't have revenue that year, and I can't raise new funds, I'll use other people's money to pay you, Phon, again. I'll raise new funds to pay the old debt." But if that year I can't raise funds, I'll sell a little Bitcoin and pay you. So, I think this way, it will be easier to talk to investors in the future. But he should do it when the market is not yet in a bull run. >> Yes, Professor. Earlier, I saw a comment from a viewer saying they are FC Professor Em. Since Professor is here today, could you share your approach to managing your investment portfolio during this time? Or do you see opportunities in any other assets, including crypto? >> During this time, I rotate. Before, I bought options. When the price fell, I closed the options and started rotating. Now, I'm also gradually rotating. Currently, I still don't see it as over. This is actually a good thing. Why? Because if the last halving cycle dragged on, we wouldn't be looking at the timeline for when we'll meet again. It would become a cycle, and it would just gradually move on. But because the halving hasn't ended, and it was very significant last time, I think this time it will be even more intense. And it will rise even more sharply. Will this be the last time? I don't know. It might not end, or it might end. But when we see such an opportunity, in my view, the most important thing is not to sell houses or cars. Why? Because if we take too much risk with good opportunities, sometimes we can miss them. We get scared. Sometimes our feelings are overly fearful. So, I think this round is the best for me. This is not investment advice for others. And indeed, past returns do not indicate future returns. So, for me, at this moment, the best is DCAing in. DCAing in means I have a lump sum, and I gradually rotate it in, little by little. Today, Bitcoin has fallen for 2-3 days. I'm even happier. I don't have a problem. Why? Because I'm still DCAing in. If it rises, I will be able to DCA in less. And I gradually DCA in. But while DCAing in, I'm not just DCAing into Bitcoin. So, I DCA in. I still see November as a potential bull market. And I give it until the end of the year. By the end of the year, we should see a clear upward trend, a sideways up like last time. And then, if it's sideways up by the end of the year, I will enter another position. Why? Because then it's confirmed that the halving is definitely coming. And it won't just be me. Everyone is waiting for that. When it becomes a confirmed bull market, it means the halving is still valid. Everyone will flow in together, knowing that from that point to the peak, at least there's still about 300% left. There's still quite a lot of room to play. And when it rises to the halving point, say about a year after the halving, we will gradually start to take some profits, trim some. After that, we'll go back to the same strategy. Use derivatives to protect profits, buy insurance for the portfolio, and hold on. Run until the cycle ends. When does it end? Whenever it ends. And then we'll repeat. I think it's about playing in rounds. Don't go against the trend. And when playing crypto, don't look at it daily. Don't look at it monthly. It's very difficult to play. One day it rises, then it will rise, and then it falls sharply. Then it rises to over 80,000 and falls sharply. So, I think it's about playing in rounds like this. And playing with a sizing that is within our acceptable risk. Another thing I'm gradually accumulating, I've actually been accumulating for a long time, is gold. I used to dislike gold. I used to dislike gold. Because I felt it just rose based on people's desires. And I didn't see its clear narrative until a few years ago when we started seeing the situation with the US like this. I think one day, gold will play its role as it should. It will become the global central currency. I don't see Bitcoin as that yet. Bitcoin might be the reason why I put a portion into it. But if something happens to Bitcoin, gold will definitely be there. Because people will flow a lot into gold as well. So, another portion I'm starting to accumulate is gold. I've been accumulating it all along, but through indices. I'm starting to reduce my holdings, meaning I'm gradually buying less of US stocks. Because they have risen since I entered the market. I entered the US stock market around 2016, approximately 2015-2016. It has been rising continuously. I remember when I first entered, the S&P was not even 2,000. So, it has been rising continuously since I can remember. So, the profits have been substantial. I'm gradually stopping, not selling, but gradually not adding much more. I'm adding less and less because I don't know when its cycle will end. As for Thai stocks, there are some, but I don't focus on them much. So, I think one person, it's not necessary to observe. In the past 6 months to a year, I haven't talked much about crypto. Why? Because every time we talk about crypto, and we talk about positive factors like this, people get excited. When they get excited, they buy. But they don't understand everything I've said, that there's a chance it might dip sharply again. Do you see the picture? So, our words can sometimes cause people to get excited, buy, and suffer losses. So, I say that one person investing in only one thing will not survive. You have to rotate because everything has its cycle. Currently, I'm rotating back into some crypto. And I'm still in US stocks, gradually withdrawing from them. I'm also gradually withdrawing from some gold. >> Yes, Professor. However, I would like to reiterate to viewers that today's discussion is not investment advice. Investing in assets, whether digital or otherwise, carries risks. Please use your discretion and invest according to your risk tolerance. Today, thank you very much, Professor, for honoring us with your presence. >> Thank you. >> Yes. Today, if any viewers are watching this live and want to follow more news and information, please remember to press the Subscribe button and follow us to encourage Business Tomorrow to continue bringing you good news and information as always. And importantly, Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the seminar of the year, delving into all safe-haven assets that investors must have now, whether it's gold, silver, oil, digital assets, Defense Technology. You can register for the event. It's free to attend on July 5th, 2026, at True Digital Park. If you're interested, you can scan the QR code displayed at the bottom banner. But for today, our live session has truly come to an end. We'll meet again in the next live session. For today, thank you and goodbye. [Music]