Transcription
Hello everyone and welcome to Medusa. So today, the objective will be to give a global overview of Bitcoin, altcoins, technical analysis, and on-chain analysis. You know that I have a quantitative approach, I've been in crypto for 7 years, and my goal is to look at the indicators that I find most relevant for Bitcoin. I systematically look at the same ones because the trap is always a bit like this: looking at indicators that seem good to you for a certain period, then other indicators for other periods, and ultimately having no coherence in your analyses. So the objective here is to really have a clear structure, a clear methodology that allows you to grasp the different market phases, protect capital during downturns, and increase the valuation of your portfolio during upturns. I remind you that you can find all the information on our website to join our investment circle. The objective is really this: to modulate the exposure to Bitcoin, altcoins, and stablecoins over time. So based on a multitude of indicators. But the objective is really this. This is really a period where if you are not certain that Bitcoin will rebound and that this is a market low, you must divest at least partially. This is the trap that the majority of people fall into: once they are exposed, they say, "Well, I'm exposed, so I'll sell once I've made x5, x10." No, if you currently think that the bearish scenario is at least as probable as the bullish scenario, you should not remain 100% exposed in your portfolio. And so modulating your exposure in this way is still the easiest and smartest way to do it. Reduce your Bitcoin exposure to increase that of altcoins, reduce that of Bitcoin and altcoins to increase that of stablecoins. Completely reduce stablecoins to increase your altcoin share. This is what you must do according to the different market phases. It is essential to be in this mindset, in this risk management mindset, and in the allocation of your portfolio, which must therefore be as optimal as possible. This is really, really crucial for you. So this is what we do in the investment circle. I communicate my position to you. The percentages are shared in real-time, and this is what allows me to give you this curve, which is the performance curve of our portfolio from October 28th to now, within a few days. So you see that if you were exposed to Bitcoin at $10,000, or €10,000 in this case, on October 28th, during this downturn, you would only have €75 now, and with the Medusa portfolio, we have €9,000. So you see that on a 25% drop in Bitcoin, we only experienced a 10% drop at Medusa. This is our added value: being able to protect capital during downturns to have maximum capital to take advantage of upturns. Currently, Bitcoin is in a phase of uncertainty. So we had a nice recovery that went from $8,450 to $9,050. So quite quickly, we broke this famous trendline that had been projecting us downwards for a long time. This big trendline that had been maintaining us in constant bearish pressure since October 6th, the day of our top. Well, we crossed this trendline, consolidated around $88,000, and now we've made a small bullish expansion. Unfortunately, I still have big doubts about this expansion because, quite simply, if we look at the phases here on the order flow. So, I've just done a bit of cleaning on the chart. Well, you see here, I've highlighted five phases, okay? Five phases over the last few days of Bitcoin trading. And you see that there are interesting things to look at. So what I did is that during these five phases, I showed you the phases where we had open interest expansions. Moments where the open interest increased quite massively here, here, here, here, and here. These are phases where the open interest expansion shows us that more and more traders are active, people are on derivative contracts, making bets on the upside or downside, but they are making bets. The objective of the order flow analysis we're going to do here on CoinGlass is to determine if these are buyers or sellers. Okay? So this is really the mass. Okay? The objective is not to look at what the whales are doing. The objective is to look at what Mr. and Mrs. Everybody are doing. Okay? Mr. and Mrs. Everybody, currently in phases of open interest expansion, you see that it happens exclusively during phases of increasing funding rates. If funding rates increase, it means we have a favorable imbalance for buyers. That is to say, more and more buyers are positioning themselves on derivative contracts. And so here, over the last five phases, we've had exactly the same configuration each time, that is to say, an increase in open interest correlated with an increase in funding rates. Okay? So, we had the same thing at the same time, five times in a row, and each time during price drops, price stagnations, or price increases, we still had an increase in open interest with an increase in funding. This means that throughout this consolidation phase, many, many traders entered positions with the idea that we are at a bottom and that Bitcoin will go up again. As you know, if you follow me and other analysts, this is something that is quite well-known. Traders are always wrong in trading, and even more so on derivative contracts. So on derivative contracts, when we have an overabundance of bullish traders, they generally get punished, and we liquidate everyone. And where does the global liquidation occur? At our major low, which occurs here at $84,400. So I assume we probably have a bit of room to continue the rise, simply to recover the last liquidation zone located here at $90,500. So maybe a bit higher, you see, maybe around $90,700. If we look at liquidations, you see that we have a nice liquidation cluster here between $9400 and $91,300. So it's very likely to recover this zone. Okay? It's not guaranteed. It's not 100% sure, far from it. But it's very probable. Okay? Probability would suggest that we make one last small bullish impulse. For example, something like this. You see? We could do something like this. Hop. You see? Maybe something like this and then die down a bit lower, okay? And potentially go for $91,500, maybe $92,000, which would correspond to the median zone of this imbalance, okay? So of this imbalance candle between buyers and sellers. So here, the $91,300 zone, honestly, in the short to medium term, meaning this week or early next week, is very probable. Why? Because we are in a phase where, as you know, Wednesday is Christmas Eve and Thursday is Christmas. And so it will be a period when the trading desks of most institutions will be closed. We will have much less volume, much less liquidity. So this will be visible almost everywhere. We will have drops. So we are on 1 hour, but if we look at the daily, we will gradually see volume drops. Okay? The more time passes, the more we will see volume drops. And this is quite logical because many people are closing their positions. Many traders are on vacation, it's quite logical, celebrating the end-of-year holidays and Christmas with family. And so it's not a time when volatility is extreme most of the time, and it's not a time when clear directions are taken. Okay? So we can have movements, bullish movements and bearish movements. We can have something like this, you see, we can have volatility like this, but it will remain a range. Okay? We won't have real clear directions with ascending lows and highs, a nice structure, something like this happening clearly and controlled for days and days while everyone is on vacation. Okay? This is what happens during the summer phases in the first three weeks of August. This is what happens at Thanksgiving time, etc. So anyway, it's always the same when there's little volatility, little liquidity, well, when there's little liquidity, etc., we generally have few clear directions taken. So that's why I expect a small bullish push that will take us a bit higher and perhaps liquidate all these bearish traders who are a bit too aggressive, and then recover this liquidity zone between $84,300 and $82,000. This seems most probable to me right now. Especially since, as you can see, at the ETF level, we don't have a clear direction. If I show you here on Glass Node, you see these histograms. Sometimes it's bullish, sometimes it's bearish. Well, lately, we've had a bit more bearish than bullish, but you see it's not huge. If we look here at Black Rock's portfolio, okay? So here we are on the Arcam site, which allows us to track Black Rock's portfolio via ETFs. In fact, the portfolio you see here is the Highbit portfolio. Okay? So here, you can directly see the number, hop, I'll show you this on Arcam, the number of Bitcoins and the valuation of the portfolio. So, you see here, there was, so here, if we look in tokens, we will see that there was a slight sale, okay, over the last three months. If we look at this, hop, over the last three months, we had, well, something like 800,000 tokens that were positioned at Black Rock. There was some selling, a little bit of selling. It remains quite low, but you especially see that in recent weeks, there have been no clear directions taken. Okay? So indeed, it's not something significant, but there's no more flow, no more clear direction. We will surely have to wait a long time before being able to reposition ourselves somewhere. Regarding the Pycle Top indicator, well, it's an indicator that worked to indicate the top in all previous occurrences. Well, unfortunately, it seems very difficult to show us the top at this level. Unless we are in something like 2019. This is a scenario that I have more and more in mind: the 2019 scenario with the big bullish push, the small correction/consolidation phase for a while, which allows us to have, as we had at the time in 2019, the end of quantitative tightening before the start of quantitative easing, and the moment when we had a bit more money printing that relaunched a new bullish cycle. So you see, we had a big bullish impulse, consolidation with a retracement. We went quite low. Well, we had the Covid crash, obviously, we went really much lower, but then we strongly went back up. And so, we could have something like this, a range phase similar to what we had in 2024, for those who were there, it's more recent so many people remember it. But this period, between February and October 2024, was very long. It lasted 9 months. 9 months during which we gently slid downwards, because we broke support, broke supports, broke supports before being able to rebuild a real trend. It's possible we'll have something like this in the coming months, something that isn't very pretty with a bearish curve, etc., until perhaps gaining strength around the first, second, third quarter of 2026. Unlike what many people think about a very bullish, very "bullish" first quarter of 2026, well, we have to admit that Bitcoin has accustomed us to surprising us quite a bit during this cycle. So I think, well, we need to be very, very cautious with seasonality. I remind you that regarding seasonality, if we look at it in relation to the halving, well, the seasonality of this cycle, which you see in bold orange, is very similar to the seasonality we had in the 2016-2017 cycle, which you see here in red, the 2020-2021 cycle, which you see in orange right here. You see that the tops are quite well positioned compared to the bottoms, same for the cycle bottoms. Okay? Compared to the cycle bottoms, we had the tops exactly positioned each time for these three cycles. Now, the 2011-2015 cycle is very particular because Bitcoin wasn't worth much. You see that we made our top on November 30, 2013, Bitcoin was worth $1100. Okay. So obviously, the capitalization was very low, and it was, in fact, given that we had absolutely no institutional investors, no real large portfolios or financial institutions, well, it was very subject to volatility and simply to the belief and so on of all the cypherpunks who owned Bitcoins. Okay. So, caution with seasonality, I really think we could enter a very tricky cycle with, once again, a first quarter that is either in disinterest or in slow, progressive support breaks. So, I would be very, very cautious with that. And so, again, I remind you, know how to protect your capital. Here, your exposure must be managed. You must be able to take profits when you estimate that the market will not go higher. Well, when we were here, I made a video telling you to take profits. In any case, we took profits in the investment circle. We even heavily reduced the portfolio. Well, it's not for nothing. Even if obviously we would have hoped to see Bitcoin higher, well, at that time, we had too many signals telling us to be cautious. Okay? And so this is what you must do daily. If we look a bit at the indicators, I have many indicators that invite me to be cautious. If I show you a bit, just at the level of, well, I'll show you at the level of funding rates. Hop, it will be here, I think, no? Okay, I'll show you all of this. Hop, here. At the level of funding rates, so financing rates, it's a simple translation on derivative contracts of the euphoria on the markets. You see the current euphoria, so you see these green histograms that keep increasing. Currently, we are in a zone where there is too much euphoria. So obviously, this can be totally contradictory with the Fear and Greed index, which is at 25%. But this is precisely the proof that it's not a healthy movement. You have derivative contracts that are very bullish. People on derivative contracts are taking very bullish positions. They are in "must buy the bottom" mode, etc. You see that we have a bullish recovery that is almost as significant as what we had at the time here when we were at the top phases. You see here, we were at 0.01% funding rates. Well, that was about the euphoria we were in at that time. Okay? And I remind you here, if we take the example of April, when there was an increase in euphoria, then how did it translate here? The increase in euphoria, a bit too violent on a bearish configuration. Boom, followed by a real correction and a real major low. So really, you must be very, very cautious. There is a real danger in being 100% exposed to Bitcoin right now. I know that many of you hope for a powerful bullish recovery, but you must keep a cool head because there will be interesting days, there will be many opportunities in the future, but for now, it's not yet the case. You see whales here massively unloading. You see here. So you have in blue the whales' exposure. To what extent over 30 days whales are leaving or entering the market. The phases where this blue curve increases sharply are phases where whales are reloading. Okay? And conversely, here, during the lows, well, that was our top in 2021. These were phases where we had large distributions. What we were used to during this cycle, hop, I'll remove this one, is that during the bottom phases, we had whales reloading. This was the case here, it was the case here, it was the case here. Since this bottom, it's the opposite. Okay? And this is what I was telling you, what I was talking about when I explained that we don't differentiate a bear market from a correction in the top phase, we differentiate it on the rebound after the correction. You had the correction, then we have a rebound. At that point, if there's massive unloading, it's probably because we're going lower. Conversely, if during the correction, there are massive purchases, it means it's simply a low point in an uptrend. And this is what you must follow, what you must absolutely watch to know if you should reinvest at the low point or stay aside. Okay? And currently, it's preferable to stay partially aside, more or less, etc. All of this, well, there are many strategies that we develop in our investment circle, which we discuss, etc., to help you make the right decision and understand the subtleties that sometimes lead us to re-enter because we estimate there could be a powerful rebound, and sometimes we stay out or we grow our investments on decentralized finance platforms or earning platforms to grow our stablecoins during the phase where we are protected. Well, this is what we will discuss in our investment circle. So obviously, here, when we look at funding rates on Binance, for example, we have funding rates that are much too high. Hop, we'll zoom in a bit, but I'll show you. Hop, well, it's not updating here. You see, well, anyway, you see this, it's quite symptomatic. You see funding rates increasing very sharply again. Well, this is not a good sign at all. This is happening in a context where there's absolutely no one left. The majority of people in crypto are currently leaving. Okay? This is also visible in realized losses. So here we are in realized profits, but here we are in realized losses. So we have a lot of realized losses because, well, if we take the delta, so realized losses and profits. So you sum all the losses, sum all the profits, and that gives you these famous green and red histograms. Well, you see that here we are rather in a phase where people are tired, investors are leaving, small ones, big ones, etc., everyone is leaving. This is also why we don't have a truly powerful bullish recovery. It's because there are no buyers. There are no buyers. Here, we saw it with retail, there are no new people arriving. This is visible in social indicators. On YouTube views of influencers, there's no one. On ETFs, there's no one. We also saw it with whales, there's no one either. Well, then, it becomes complicated to make Bitcoin pump. And what you must do is protect yourself during these phases to be able to reinvest heavily when we have real reversal signals. This can happen very quickly, okay? Because we are at massive excess levels, okay? At moments where there are no more buyers but the macroeconomy is gradually recovering. You see that we had an interest rate cut in the last US Federal Reserve meeting. We expect another one in March and another one in July. In short, the medium-term prospects are rather good. They allow us to estimate that we will probably be at around 3% rates by mid-2026. And this is very positive for risk markets, for all small, low-cap assets. Okay? Because again, what happens and why is it interesting to monitor US rates? Why does everyone say it brings liquidity, etc.? Because simply, people in the markets do exactly as I do. That is to say, they expose their portfolio, they expose it across different assets. So this is my exposure to the crypto asset class, but you must do this for your different asset classes as well. You must do this for stocks, bonds, gold, commodities, whatever you want, but you must moderate your exposures based on indicators. Currently, gold is extremely, extremely high. So, there's not necessarily a reason, here you see we're making a nice breakout, etc. There's not necessarily a reason to lighten up massively, okay? But to reload, not necessarily to reload at this moment, we are still at $4400 per ounce of gold. This is very important. I remind you that here, if we take a monthly time scale, okay? So one candle equals one month. If I show you the RSI here, the last time we reached this, I'm showing you on a logarithmic scale, the last time we reached this was in 1980 here, okay? And in 1973 here, okay? At the time, gold was worth $170 per ounce and $864 in 1980. Okay. Even during this enormous bull run we had between 2001 and 2011, okay, the real gold bull run for 10 years, we didn't reach excess levels on the monthly RSI at the levels we are currently at. And what did this result in each time? It resulted in a drop of about, you see, 2 years, okay? 580 days. Okay? Here, it was the same. If we look a bit, it resulted in 2 years of decline here. Well, even if we take 2 years of decline here, 70% 70% drop. Here, it was about the same. Tac tac 50% drop over 1400 days. Well, you have 2-3 years of bear market on gold. It's entirely possible we'll have something like this that brings us back between $2000 and $2700 per ounce by 2027-2028, for example. Okay. So caution, obviously, people invested in gold and the rest of the markets will arbitrate based on this. They will reduce their dollar exposure to increase their gold exposure, reduce their gold exposure to increase that of bonds and stocks. And so, necessarily, when rates fall, there's less and less interest in being positioned in bonds. If you are positioned in bonds, it's because they can remunerate you risk-free. Okay? US Treasury bonds are considered risk-free. Apparently, you will be reimbursed for your capital and interest. So you could get 5.5% annual interest risk-free. So obviously stocks yield 10% gross on average per year. So you think, well, between 5.5% sure and 10% but with a lot of uncertainty, well, I'll still heavily weight the bond part. Except that once we go from 5.5% to 5%, then to 4%, then to 3%, well, between the 10% from stocks and the 3% from bonds, you think, "Yeah, well, actually I prefer to take the risk on stocks because at least I'm really remunerated because bonds aren't that much." I get almost the inflation rate, which is currently 2.28%. Okay. Okay, this is the inflation in the indicators. You know that real inflation is quite a bit higher than these calculations, which are often a bit biased. So the fact of having rates that will fall and be relatively low, okay? We're even leaning towards rates between 2.75% and 3% by 2026. Well, that would obviously be excellent, excellent news. Okay? And so, if people sell their bonds to buy stocks, well, buying bonds means buyers, liquidity, this famous liquidity, and therefore a potential bullish expansion. So you see, this is really something that will be important in the coming weeks and months because it will be necessary to be able to position oneself well, to be able to be a bit like a sniper who, at the right moment, presses the buy button and to be able to buy back at a good price what others have sold too impatiently. So you see, there's still a good objective to reach these price levels. Well, you see, in any case, this is what many indicators give us. Well, I don't have much more to show you. Well, I've shown a lot of things. Well, I can show you this, for example, the position of long-term holders, which is still bearish. So, obviously, this doesn't help either. All people who have been positioned for more than 155 days, you see here. So, for more than 155 days, you see they are selling. Well, obviously, this doesn't help Bitcoin recover. So, patience, but I think we are closer to a bullish recovery than we think, because we have probably reached interesting zones for buyers to reposition themselves, because simply, the majority of sellers have already sold. So now it's too early to position ourselves, much too early. You see here the RSI is stuck below 50. The last time, it rejected us several times. Well, here you see we are exactly on a liquidation or liquidity taking zone, major resistance, etc. Well, again, the strongest probability is to be plunged to the level of our wick here at $80,500. So, if you want to join us in our investment circle for those who want to have peaceful holidays and a good year 2026 in good conditions with someone who does all these analyses and shares them exclusively. Well, long debriefs, we talk for an hour regularly, once, twice, three times a week, depending on Bitcoin's volatility, but who shares all of this, a strategy, a method. If you want to take things to the next level, don't hesitate. You have all the information in the links in the description. This will lead you to this page, and you can see what we do, what our added value is, and how you too can protect your capital in this way. As a reminder, Medusa is a French company. I personally hold an AMF certification, the French Financial Markets Authority. This does not make me a financial investment advisor. I specify this, I am not a financial investment advisor, meaning I don't go one by one to explain your strategies. Here, you need to buy, here, you need to sell. I explain a pedagogical analysis method that allows you to become autonomous. I obviously share my exposure, my positions, my entry levels, my exit levels, the levels I monitor, etc., my real direction that I take and probabilize for the market. So I will tell you, for example, I am 60% exposed to altcoins, 20% to Bitcoin, and 20% to stablecoins. And then I will evolve this percentage. You see it directly in the private Telegram channel. So, don't hesitate, and those who have questions can contact us. So, I don't remember anymore, well, here, just here, by clicking on this QR code, you directly access our Telegram to talk to us one-on-one this time if you have questions. Well, thank you. Have a very good holiday season. I wish you excellent end-of-year holidays, a Merry Christmas, and an excellent New Year's Eve as well. I don't know if we'll see each other before then. Maybe yes, maybe no. Take this time to disconnect a bit from social media, and we'll see you soon. Well, thank you. Goodbye.