Transcription
Good morning, friends and enemies and everyone that is not a Cleveland Cavalier or a Cleveland Cavalier fan. That aside, today we're talking about 10 secrets that I found that Vegas is telling us by just looking at their books this early in the season.
All right, their projections are now live for the upcoming 2026 NFL season, which you could find at the link below. And what we're going to do today is dissect passing projections, rushing projections, and receiving projections, and give you 10 takeaways that I got from these numbers.
We're going to start with the passing yardage chart. And not every single player is live right now. There are not numbers and projections up for every single player. And those will start to populate more and more so as the summer progresses. But this is what we have right now. And I want to get my thoughts out on paper, on video immediately.
All right. And the first thing that jumped out to me was Tyler Shuck sitting there at 3600. The same as Caleb Williams, the same as Justin Herbert, the same as Josh Allen, above guys like Jordan Love, Jaden Daniels. Obviously, this does not take into account any rushing numbers. This is just a pure passing projection number. But I think it's telling given the the the type of talent around him. And honestly, a lot of the times like with these numbers that come out this early in the offseason, they're doing it for the most engaging players. Usually the highest ranked players because those are the players that people are, you know, wanting to know more about. So to throw Chuck in this group of quarterbacks is a little bit telling in my opinion and I think people are going to be quick to kind of like scoff at this number, him being in that group of names on par with the Allens and the Herbs and the Calebs and those types of guys. But I would I would implore you to hesitate on that thought because of Kell Moore's offense. They are very very high paced. They run so many plays. Chuck is going to throw the ball an insane amount of time. So, this number is not necessarily based off his talent level or his efficiency, but it's based off of the projected volume that the Saints offense is likely going to have in 2026. They add Jordan Tyson as a top 10 rookie pick who should be an explosive playmaker to add to this offense alongside their true bonafide number one in Chris Ave. They signed Travis ETN, so any negatives they had in the rushing game should hopefully be dispelled this year with a true number one back there. Again, overall, the offensive environment should be very, very strong. It's like a very, very good group of playmakers around Chuck right now. That's before even getting into the schedule. You know, they play the NFC South team six times. They play in a dome. The majority of their games are going to be in very, very high-paced, fast-paced environments, indoors without any sort of weather concerns. When it comes to December, they play Green Bay at home in December. So, doesn't matter. They're at Carolina, probably relatively normal weather game there. Their next away game in December at Tampa Bay, Arizona at home, Atlanta in Atlanta, like the weather for December for them is non-existent. They play a fourth place schedule going into the year. So again, I think when you just look at the raw number, it's going to be quick to be hesitant about Shuck and be like, "What do they know that I don't know?" Now you know because I just told you what they know.
The next number that jumps off, not just because of the color here being bright red, it is Fernando Mendoza, the number one overall pick this year going to the Raiders. Now his projection is at 2450.5. Basically, what that tells me is that they're projecting him to start around like 11 or 12 games. I think that's valid because we just don't really see a ton of highly drafted players sit very long anymore at the quarterback position regardless of how they want the future to go. Um, I think he'll be out there sooner rather than later. They signed Kirk, but if you watched Kirk at all last year, like his it reminded me of late year Matt Ryan, late years Drew Brees where there's just no pop left in that arm at all. So, I think we're going to see Kirk struggle out the gate and him just not being able to like really move an offense effectively. Like maybe he could game manage for a few of those games, but I think eventually you're going to want to see a little more upside and that's where Fernando Mendoza comes into play. And I think this passing yardage projection is kind of telling of what they expect for him. And it is certainly not, you know, a six game or a four game rook a year out of him. It's much more in tune with the higher number of games, which I think is, you know, useful for superflex leagues or if you're in baseball drafts right now and you're looking for a QB3, Mendoza can be a guy.
I would also say just a very, very general rule of thumb for these numbers. It is extremely extremely rare for you to go higher on projections in terms of putting your money down on them and be profitable, right? The majority of lines are simply asking like, does this guy play the full slate of games? If they miss two or three games, they're going to hit the under 85% of the time. And it's football. People are often hurt. So, what I think the most useful way to look at these numbers is not necessarily like the actual raw number themselves, but comparing them to other players as well as looking at like what are the odds that this guy leads the league in receiving yards or leads the league in receiving touchdowns because that starts to help factor in upside and and ceiling and floor and stuff like that. So, when you start to like pepper them in on top of each other, it becomes a lot more of a full picture here. but look at the numbers relative to other players around them. And I think that's a little bit more helpful to to to look at these numbers rather than just the raw number because if you look at a guy and his receiving yardage total is like 750, that's obviously not a very very strong case to be like a strong fantasy player, but there are other factors involved in in these types of numbers.
The last quarterback line that I wanted to point out was Lamar Jackson. Uh his line looks really really low. He's a second to last projection on this screen here. It's Mendoza, Lamar, and Lamar's underneath Jaden Daniels. And when Lamar has stayed healthy, he's had a a pretty strong passing yardage line over the last like, you know, half decade or so. And he's typically hovering around this number. He's obviously dealt with injuries in each of the last few seasons that have kept him off the field and sometimes had him under this projection. But I do think it's super reasonable to ask yourselves what this offense looks like in a post Todd Monkin era. They improved as did Lamar's passing year after year after year in Todd Monin's system. More continuity, you're able to get more complex. You're able to get more creative in a scheme or a system in which you are, you know, stacking years on top of each other, which is not a common case in today's NFL anymore. Like if you have a good offensive coordinator, one like they don't let them develop. If they're like bad in year one or year two, they're pretty much out the door. If they're good, they're also probably out the door because someone's hiring them as their head coach. So, it's kind of rare that we see a good offensive system kind of stay in place for I think it was three or four years in a row and we saw the continued progression of Lamar Jackson as a passer. Obviously dealt with some injuries last year that held him out, but I'm not concerned about those injuries going into the year. I just think it's more so a pattern of like will he stay healthy of course, but Todd Monin's offense is now in Cleveland.
So, we're going to move to the rushing yards projection screen here. And the very first thing I look at is the number three overall pick, Jeremiah Love, near the bottom here at 900.5. Uh they resigned James Connor. They brought in Tyler Alier to a 2-year 12 million dollar deal. They still have Trey Benson in the backfield, but as I've kind of been talking about for a few weeks now, that would not be a surprise to me at all if they ended up cutting Trey Benson at this point. Regardless, the backfield split is really, really messy here. But at the end of the day, this is a team whose win total is 4 and a half. How much running opportunity are we gonna get here? They brought in Nathaniel Hackett to be their offensive coordinator in the year of 2026. Like, I think overall Love will be fine for fantasy football because he's an explosive playmaker that can pop off a big play and he's very athletic and catch passes and things like that, but it won't be the result of a high volume carry total. So, you have to make sure he eats in the other aspects of the game. How many rushing opportunities for touchdowns do we get here? The quarterback situation is a little bit messy right now. Obviously, it'd be a good thing if Jacobe Brassette was there, but now he's kind of like holding out for a starter type of contract. They brought in Carson Beck, who I'm not a big fan of if he ends up playing, you know, more than four games this year. I think that's going to be a detriment to the entire offense overall. So, I would just say like there are not crazy expectations for Jeremiah Love from a rushing handle in in year one. I think you should be drafting accordingly. like there's obviously the chance that he goes kind of Naji Harris rookie year where it's almost like right place right time and you kind of back your way into 75 targets or just a huge PPR season because of it. But um I think you'd be doing yourself a disservice if you're taking him you know around the one two turn or the you know early mid-second round there. I think he should drop a little bit in drafts.
On the other side of the spectrum, the next thing you notice are obviously you have a bunch of like really really pure rushers at the top there at 1250 with Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, Derk Henry, but Jir Gibbs and Bejian Robinson being right underneath them in terms of just a pure rushing projection is in my opinion why they are the clear clear one-two punch and in a tier of their own for 2026 fantasy football drafts. They are projected for nearly the same rushing total as the top three guys above them, but they are both going to like two to 3x the receiving work of the top three guys, which is insane. And you can kind of say the same thing for Christian McAffrey, but you see that dip in Christian McAffy's rushing projection down there at the bottom tied with Omar and Hampton at 950. So just another, you know, positive point. Not that anyone else needs to be told about Gibbs and Bejian Robinstein up there, but yeah, they are the the clear one two here.
The third thing uh that I noticed is Javvante Williams here. Javvante Williams at 1050. Kind of middle of the pack, but above a lot of very very good talents. Um Javvante Williams to me is going to be a very boring pick, but he's probably going to be the right pick around like the three fourish turn. If you owned him last year, he was just like such a wonderful just RB2 to have in your lineup and not really worry about it. Set and forget it. Like sure, some weeks he'd give you like nine points. He was horrendous in the receiving game last year, but there were other weeks where it's like, okay, you just kind of take that nine or 10 points and then the next week he's going to give you two rushing scores. And I don't see a big difference between Javvant Williams and like Kairen Williams here. Like they're to me both guys who aren't going to catch a ton of passes, but are the goal lineback and good offenses. And Kairen definitely has a lot more risk given the fact that we saw Blake Horm like play a lot of uh downs and snaps towards the second half of the season. They were almost like splitting drives par for par. Devonte Williams. I mean, you can make up a story in your head that Jaden Blue is going to be incredibly involved in the passing game this time around. And I do think it would give them a bit more explosion on third downs if they did, but like there was nothing from last year pointing towards Jaden Blue being a dude this year. So, given the makeup of the offense, given that very little has changed in the environment of the Dallas Cowboys offense and Javant Williams being, you know, the head honcho there, again, boring, but probably the right pick in those middle rounds.
And we're going to move down to the receiving yards projection. If you are enjoying the video thus far, all I ask is that you hit the button that looks like this. Subscribe to the channel if you're new. Obviously, we will be ramping up the fantasy content come June, come July, come August. Can't wait for you all to see what we have in store for you this summer. We're also putting out a ton of short form content over on Tik Tok, Instagram, and on YouTube shorts if you've seen it. So, you can go follow us on all those platforms. It's just BDGE fantasy football everywhere.
So, the first thing that jumped off on this chart was DJ Moore. DJ Moore down there at 750 kind of sandwiched between some younger dudes, some very old dudes, some rookies. Just not a great place for him to be. You would think that Buffalo is a great place for him to be because he is the clear number one in Buffalo's offense. Vegas is clearly not looking at him as any sort of alpha in the Buffalo offense. Now, do I think he has a higher ceiling than this projection leads you on to believe? Absolutely. I think DJ Moore for the most part has been a consistently good wide receiver. We saw him play that alpha role in Carolina for a very long time. Obviously severe dip off in play in Chicago last year. Luther Burton emerged. Coulson Loveland emerged. Roma Dunay was better than DJ Moore for most of the year last year. It was just a messy situation. DJ Moore like it didn't feel like he fit very well in Ben Johnson's offense. And maybe that was one of the reasons why DJ Moore, you know, really struggled last year overall. But I would say like you're starting to get older in age and at this point it's fair to to ask yourselves like how good of a separator still is is DJ Moore? Are they going to use him around the line of scrimmage? Like what I felt like Josh Allen really needed in that offense is is a field stretcher to kind of take the top off of and DJ Moore is definitely not that guy anymore. So little bit of a weird fit. I get it. Just get Josh Allen some weapons there. But clearly not very enthused about it.
Kelsey. Kelsey at 675. You might think that that's a very low number. It's actually not that weak for a tight end. Like you have Bowowers at 850. They're obviously expecting a massive bounce back. Trey McBride, I don't think they had numbers out for him because they're still probably debating the quarterback situation there. Uh Trey McBride is probably going to be around a,000,50 something in that neighborhood. But Kelsey resigned in KC. I feel like this number, despite it being low here, tells me that they do think he's still got a lot of juice left. like he was still good for fantasy last year. Again, I still think it was a lot of like worthy stinks. Rashi Rice missed a lot of time. So, you do have factors that kind of like, you know, push themselves into Kelsey seeing another uptick or a good year despite him like not playing that well. I think Kelsey's a veteran that you can kind of rely on as a low-end tight end one this year, if not like a pretty solid mid tight end one.
And then we're going to wrap up this video kind of talking about the uh the rookies here, Tate and Tyson. You have Cornell Tate who went to the Titans obviously their top five pick. 775 you have Jordan Tyson. We've already spoke a little bit about him. We're talking about Tyler Shuck also at 775. Another top 10 pick. They were right around, if I remember correctly, I think T McMillan's projection was around this number last year, give or take maybe like 25 yards. But also Travis Hunter. So they're projecting unsurprisingly, you know, the cream of the crop to be these guys. Carnell Tate, Jordan Tyson, because you have to go a little bit lower down the uh the list here to look at the other first round receivers. You got Mai Lemon, Casey Conpion, Omar Cooper. Like those guys are significantly below the Tyson's and the Carnell Tates of the world because Carnell Tate could definitely step into Tennessee as the clear alpha. Jordan Tyson should be in a really really strong wide receiver too role in an offense that should throw the ball a ton and be very high pace and fast-paced. And if you believe he's very very good with the ball in his hands and can make plays and is explosive, etc., he'll have plenty of opportunity to do so. But I think it's just interesting looking at these where guys like Travis Hunter and T McMillan were around the same range last year and it is like the complete rookie versus floor case in a situation like this. To me, it just goes to show like be conscious of where you're drafting guys like this. Rookies. It's always fun to shoot for upside, but there's probably a lower floor than you anticipate. And I think with the rise of like rookies being popular in redraft, we see a lot of carryover from like the dynasty community because each year the dynasty community puts out more and more content. So more and more people are playing and more and more people are seeing content on guys like Cornell Tate or Mai Lemon or Jordan Tyson, etc. And then that starts to carry over into baseball immediately. And a lot of people like to draft rookies high in baseball. And the earlier and earlier they go, the more risky that becomes because obviously the earlier you are in reddraft rounds like the better players are available to you and and better can come in the form of higher upside but can also come in the form of higher floor and a more secure situation etc. So I just think it's interesting to see them two just kind of thrown into the same number. Same way that T and Travis Hunter were last year. The way that it worked out last year for T and Travis Hunter could not have been more opposite. Obviously, it was a very risky situation going in, and I just think um it would be wise for reaff players a little bit to start pulling back from like the fourth round rookie wide receivers being in auto smash being like, "Yeah, it works out for a guy like Ted and it can work out for some other players, but I just think it's in everybody's best interest to just stay cognizant of the floor of rookies as well." Where in baseball, you could draft them in the fourth and fifth round because if they don't play well, you have replacements that automatically get put into your lineup. That is not the same with reddraft.
All right, so that is a quick look at the projections that I'm seeing very, very early in the summer. We will do a lot more videos like this as the summer progresses and we get more interesting, creative type of projections that do come out from the books. As always, if you want to see them yourselves, you can follow the link down below to get to MGM. Otherwise, I am out of here for today. Go Nicker boxers. Love y'all. I'm out. Wow.