Transcription
Today's number, guys, is something pretty serious. Something we haven't seen in 20 years. So, why should we be paying attention to 5.1% on the US 30-year bonds? And how does it interact with the market as we see NASDAQ and S&P move to all-time highs just over the last week and then start to show some signs of cracking?
Well, it turns out we've had these clusters before. And in today's video, we need to break down why internal weakness is starting to appear and the world's biggest stock in earnings focus. So far, it's been a buy the rumor, but will it be a sell the fact? One thing's probably going to be happening, and that is a big move. Join us as we go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos for the week ahead. And doesn't matter which one you like, there's a lot going on. See you guys soon.
Well, welcome back everybody to the special weekend edition of one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Whether you love macro, what Wall Street flows are telling us, or of course some big dark pool liquidity, we've got plenty to talk about today, including what happens when markets go up and big rates start to move. But it was a sell many things on Friday with basically semiconductors falling the most across the board.
So, let's get things kicked off here with something which is a huge number and that is five. Yes, we managed to close outside of the Bollinger again this week when it comes to the NASDAQ. And this means there's only one other period. We've actually seen this before. We linked it in our description down below as well to our X account, which shows that really the last time we had something like this guys was 1999, just before of course the dot-com boom and then bust ended in that period.
Now, why is this so important? Well, it turns out markets did something a little bit strange after this, but at the same time, do remember that we have both the NASDAQ and S&P at this stage outside of their Bollinger bands on closes. Now, the S&P came back in, but they both went outside over the last week, which is certainly an overbought signal generally in these markets.
Now, why are we a little bit more concerned about this market than maybe some people are? Well, the bonds markets just went into the photo, guys, the fear of the unknown. And as you know, this is something that we talk about all the time, the markets, and too many people miss. When you're inside a range, it's all good. Markets can ignore everything. When you exit that range, all of a sudden, markets go, "Oh, wait. This could be serious." And that's exactly where we find ourselves now coming into this week and coming into Nvidia big earnings. More on that a little bit later on as well. So, make sure to sub to the channel as we do have some big information when we're covering these big earning seasons. Remember, we're all about flow here on the channel, guys, and we're all about, of course, the TA itself.
Now, let's have a look at this stat. So, this I found very interesting. Are we early cycle? Are we mid-cycle? Or are we late cycle? Pause the video here, put it in the comments down description down below. Which one of these do you think we're in? Generally speaking, it's pretty important because when we have both yields and we have NASDAQ and growth stocks moving up, you've got to ask yourself that question.
Now, in 2026, we've now seen yields on a 12-month roll go to new highs, and we've now seen, of course, the NASDAQ go crazy. So, what this puts us in is kind of rare, yeah, I would say fairly rare kind of markets here, and something we haven't had really since maybe more like the 2004 to 2006 period, which was a big boom in both markets. Everything was ignored and then suddenly a big bust.
Now, we also saw something like this happen back in 1996 into of course the dot-com boom and that was that the yields and of course the market were growing at the same time. Now, usually if that's coming off let's say a recovering market, it's fine. No problems at all. If it is happening though, such as these ones here, but if it is happening inside of a market that's getting a little bit later on in cycle, that is we've gone through '23 now, we've gone through the AI boom of '24 now into of course 2026, then it makes you start to go, hm, is this a little bit concerning? And I do think all three of these things are important. Rates stayed structurally elevated for a long time. Growth is starting to slow, but it didn't collapse. Remember, underneath the hood, if you stripped out AI right now, what would we have? A lot less growth and of course yields rose with equities. This is super important. Everyone expects a recession right now that actually happened in all these other periods but markets continued to climb the wall of worry. Anyway, I think it's a pretty interesting chart and something we need to be paying attention to.
Now, as you guys know, we're all about stats here on the channel and five-week streak for the markets being above the Bollinger doesn't happen very often. Now, we've already talked about how with the S&P is the key point here. But Blue Kurdic actually went through and had a look at the stats, and you might think, well, this means the markets have to go down. Well, it doesn't if it was just the NASDAQ because it turns out that when the NASDAQ does this, it actually continues to find strength over time. And I think that's an interesting observation itself.
When we do take though Polycarp's data here which basically shows and follow over on X as well for these guys by the way everyone this actually does show us though that we have a different scenario when both the SPY and the Qs close outside. This was to bring up our point over the last week when you have both extended it does tell you there's a kind of a systematic usually upper leverage type of thing going on and this brings us to a couple of problems that are starting to look a little scary.
One of those is here bought up by Azura Capital Tabby Costa over on X guys which is the percentage of US federal debt maturing in one year. Now we've talked about this debt cliff many times and it is not unknown to the market. The debt cliff actually started realistically back in October of 2025 in a big way and it has continued to be problematic over this year and we're seeing some problems now in potentially the Treasury yields and what the expectation is in the future for of course being able to borrow this money and this is putting extreme pressure on the US debt in general. I think every 100 days right now we're seeing a trillion dollar added to the deficit which is just actually it's horrific when you think about it guys. But you know what? It's just trundling along. We already know it's a train wreck. The question is, well, will will that ever actually matter. And I've long said that it's actually a huge number before that really starts to become a systematic error in these markets.
Now, what isn't a huge? Well, it is a huge number, but what isn't going to take that much longer is margin balances. According to the latest stats here from Wall Street Jesus shared uh from sourced golden from Sachs and global investment research in general. You can see here that we have margin balances absolutely skyrocketing through the big period here of 2026. And what this is telling us is that retail traders are taking on a lot of leverage particularly it seems like a bit of hidden leverage as well that's starting to appear in those three times levered ETFs. And to make matters even crazier than that, we're starting to get clusters of potential Hindenburg omens. Now, there are some things about whether this actually did reach a Hindenburg omen or not. So, there's some debate on that, but we have seen these clusters before over the last kind of year and a half. When it's happened, we have seen them actually be close to topping points. And I think it brings up other things that we've been talking about. Advanced decline lines, losing certain moving averages that we have to talk about later on today's video. All these types of things start to become pretty important.
Now, we have we had semi-euphoria recently, guys. Well, yes. Again, we're starting to see things that we haven't usually got except for before generalized slowdowns. Now, semi-euphoria, according to Polycarp here, and what we've already done the research on has only happened a matter of a handful of times. So you can see here back in 2015-16 and that led into a slowdown in semis obviously the dot-com boom and then a false move up and then crash after the '90 kind of '6 period there. So some pretty huge moves after those actually went through.
Now, is this time different? A lot of people ask. Well, Duality Research here over on X has put together some cool charts and this one basically is showing that yeah, the earnings are there right now. And although I think and a lot of you guys do think that there's a bit of uh the old hamster wheel going on, which is everybody kind of investing in each other and then rebuying from the same company that's investing into. So it's kind of like recycling money. There is an argument to say, isn't that how some businesses actually already run? And of course on top of that, you know, are these earnings actually coming through? Well, the buffins on Wall Street, they like it. And of course, they're upgrading big time this earning season, which has led to semiconductors going as bonkers as they have done.
Now, there are some other interesting signs from both the bear and the bull positions. You're always going to need to look both ways. And I think Duality put this one pretty well, which is historically there are classic early cycle signs. Now, businesses are actually seeing more activity. So, they add hours in temps and commit then after to full-time hires. Now, that's actually what we're seeing here when it comes to certain stats improving. Overtime hours is actually accelerating up and we're also seeing staffing. Now, I'm interested to see what your opinions on the ground are. Is this actually a stat of potential growth actually happening again in the system and people really getting hired or is this actually more of everyone struggling and trying to take as much as they can in terms of overtime restaffing themselves do whatever they can to get more jobs because uh yeah, I mean a lot of the time this actually does uh lead into of course okay early cycle style market. I tend to think it's late cycle but it's an interesting stat nonetheless.
Let's now have a look here at what's coming in this week. Earnings whispers here with of course their excellent earnings release imagery. And I always like to look at this each week during earning season as we do on the channel. And you can see here Nvidia after the close. So, is this going to be a big one? We'll get the options expected moves on it later on this week. So, make sure to sub for that. But this is going to be a huge earnings. We know it's the biggest stock in the world, guys. We know it's the one that matters. And we know that currently it's been playing catch-up. So, we talked about the big bull close just a few weeks ago that's led on to so far a bit of potentially buy the rumor and we also know that Wall Street's expectations are pretty high for this stock because they always are. But, you know, Nvidia's always lived up to them. So, yeah, buy the rumor sell the fact. Is it going to be a sell the fact? Let's have a look at one metric. And as you guys pointed out, price to sales is a little bit different, but you can see here that we do have a relatively cheap forward PE, but this is expected when you're considering about the growth this company's been on and the just astronomic numbers that we're talking about now when it comes to billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars. You know, there is a limit to how much you can grow when you become the biggest company in the world.
Let's now have a look at global money supply. Now this is another one that is getting a little bit worrisome. $17.1 trillion has been added just over the last couple of years according to Zura Capital and Tavi Costa and this is showing us that there has been growth in the economies but why? Well, money supply has been accelerating and this is one of the things that of course leads into growth and then obviously if that is turn tap is turned off then all of a sudden bang you could be looking at some pretty nasty stuff pretty quickly.
Let's have a look at a couple of big dark pools now. Now, we always look for these clusters because when we see tons of trades together, then it usually shows that Wall Street is at least considering a level a little bit more. Now, we've seen that previously uh back in 2024 with AMD kind of at a topping level. We then saw it at a bit of a topping level into consolidation that then led into, of course, a massive run. And now we have a cluster of the third, 2nd, seventh, and eighth largest trades ever recorded on AMD. All happening up here near the highs. Now, I think that's pretty interesting there from volume leaders, but it also couples at the same time that we've been talking about software and Microsoft and a few other stocks actually started to move up over the last week. It was actually up on the session and you can see here software in general starting to move up, semiconductors starting to look a little bit more shaky. And this is kind of the question, which one is going to break first? Are we going to see semis start to come down a little bit more to earth? And it turns out software companies aren't dead yet or are you in the camp that they are dead and the market has priced it correctly?
Another one has been of course South Korea. Now this is a crazy market. We've now got some monster clusters and I've got to say this is strange stuff going on here. Remember we talked about when volatility enters the chat that is markets start moving huge. There's probably someone doing something. Well, it turns out the largest, the second largest, and the third largest trades all went through over the last couple of sessions. And it kind of spikes again the idea of what we saw last week, which was the beginning of some volatility in the Kospi, which led into a little bit of volatility in the semiconductors itself. It's funny how they do this, guys. Remember, they do need to eventually get out of positions. What do you think? Is this actually them getting out of positions? Are they taking a little bit of profit? Is this kind of the end of the initial run here, the end of the whole thing? Always interested to know your opinions there.
Now, let's move over to the one of the biggest hedges in the world, which is the US dollar. And because yields went up, well, that does push usually dollars up as well. And you can see here, dollars still stuck within the overall major kind of corrective period so far. So, the market hasn't broken out of the ranges. This is why it's so important to look at the higher time frames.
When we go to the S&P, you can see here, guys, the advanced decline line has actually been coming down. And although we haven't broken to a lower low yet, you'll note here that if we do, that could be serious business because the last time we did that, we ended up in a fairly big sell actually in markets. And it's one of those things that we do look at in here in the channel. It's a little bit different to what other people do look at.
Another one is the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average. Now, you might think, well, that's probably pretty good. It's actually not as good as you would think. In fact, we haven't gone to a higher high that is pushed more breadth this time in recovery. And a few of you guys had the question of, "Oh, well, isn't it normal to not have breadth at the beginning, then to get a widening market?" It is actually. That's pretty much what happens. You get that gamma stocks going first. Everyone kind of jumps into the growth and then all of a sudden we move into the broadening market. But for now, you can see here the percentage of stocks above the 50 is actually declining, not broadening at this stage.
And that brings us to probably the biggest real close of the week, which is that we actually went underneath the 50 exponential moving average. Now, we didn't I don't think we gained it because you'll see in a moment. Well, we have gone through it once before, but we quickly rebounded on it. So, I think Monday's price action is super important to this market because this has been super consistent with series of higher highs and higher lows around that 50.
Now, from price action structure standpoint, did we take the structure yet? The answer is probably not. Uh, because we didn't take out the lower low and until that happens, you're not really changing trend of what has been a historic upward trend here on the S&P and also on the NASDAQ.
Let's now take a look at the options themselves. All expirations. Why do we stop 7500, guys? What a psychological level. You might all think AI is involved in everything and maybe it is. But at the same time, basic human maybe idiocy in some ways is that we all love round numbers and people set for these rounds, guys. 7500, 8000, 7000, we see it time and time again just before or just on those levels. We often see resistance and we see a lot of people strike up around that and that's of course what happened over last week. We reported on our last video that it was a monster strike and now of course people are basically starting to jump puts at around 7300. So yeah, some big levels here. 74, 73, 75, each 100 points going to be super important for the SPY.
Let's have a look at the Qs now and check out what's going on in those. And you can see here that again with the Qs the markets did decline. We had some pretty big structural highs but it didn't really show up here. The the main market that was showing of course the weakness was probably the S&P over the last week. Nvidia meanwhile, lots of calls coming in on this. I expect it to change a little bit into the week ahead. 230 is the major call wall kind of coming through at this stage and we'll report back when we get a little bit more information as we get closer to the earnings themselves. Tesla meanwhile doing exactly what you would expect which it hit that 450 zone and then it's declined a bit from there which makes perfect sense because that's what it's doing and 400 and 420 are usually the two important levels in the options for now. With IBIT, it's Bitcoin doing its normal thing at the moment which is it bounced off that 20, it then almost got through the 200, tried very hard which we'll look at later on, and then it declined back onto the lows. So, we'll look at how brutal that looks at this stage. Little bit disappointing on Bitcoin, but of course, there's always a silver lining. So, we'll check that out very soon.
So, just before we jump into the charts and we take a look at all of the key levels that we need to be watching for the week ahead, I did want to say a big thank you to the sponsor of today's video, which is Tiger Brokers. Now, guys, you know that every quarter in the US, we get something called earning season. And this week, we've got a doozy because, of course, Nvidia is coming out and markets could move just like that. Now, with Tiger Trade, you get the ability to trade US stocks 24x5 with access to 9,500 plus stocks and ETFs at zero additional fees. But I want to talk about a feature that I think is very interesting when it comes to being able to observe maybe forward PE in a different way. So, as you guys know, we're all about charts here at FX Evolution. And here we have Microsoft and we're looking at the forward PE over a 10-year horizon. Is it cheap or is it expensive over that period based on that metric alone? Also, what's going on with price to sales? Can we quickly be able to observe this? Now, I think it's an interesting observation whenever we're looking at these markets to be able to look at these things and to put them down to the metrics over time. Sometimes history can teach us something a little bit about stocks and whether they're looking good or bad based on the fundamentals and the technical analysis itself. And you can see here we can also check out what's going on with the buffins and whether they're upgrading or downgrading the stock over time, including the earnings releases themselves. So if you're interested in finding out more about what Tiger Brokers might be able to offer you, then you can check it out in the link pinned comment down below and description. And of course, make sure to check the T's and C's, risk disclaimers, and make sure the product is right for you. Thank you so much to Tiger Brokers to sponsor the video. Let's get back into the charts.
All right, guys. Well, let's get into the yields themselves. These were some big breaks. Like this is serious business when we start seeing bonds themselves start to show that a little bit of the freak out. Now, US 10-year, they started to move up. Are we through key levels like 4.8 yet? No. But still, these are breakups through 4.5 plus. We saw the 2-year as well suggesting that we shouldn't be seeing any cuts anytime soon when it comes to the new Fed and of course the new Fed chair. And you'll note this is not a new thing. We've talked about this for quite some time. In fact, really since March, it's signaled that we probably wouldn't be seeing a cut anytime soon. So, the bonds markets know this, but again, they don't tend to freak out till they freak out. And where are we seeing the freak out? Basically, the US 30-year. If we go back in history, you'll note that we haven't seen this price since July of '07 in terms of a closure. And this is now the highest close that we've had with what has been pretty much a series of higher lows. Now, is this big business? Yep. Because it's the fear of the unknown. So it's always important to note that when a market freaks out and starts to move somewhere else, then that puts pressure suddenly on everything and often we see risk off.
Now have a look here at these levels. So we've got here the last Treasury zone which is about 82. What's happening with US Treasuries? Well, the 30-year is breaking up, the 10-year, the 20-year, the 2-year. That's putting pressure on the treasuries, and they're about to fall potentially to a new low levels that we have again not seen to since the mid-2000s period. This is pretty big deal. It has to be watched. We have to do some specials on this week uh for this particular market. So, treasuries themselves are starting to freak out. And this also goes with what we saw in high yield junk, which is that we didn't get a higher high in high yield junk. Instead, we got a lower high off what was the sell in March. Again, signaling the bonds market isn't as happy with this rally because remember, the bonds market cares a little bit about the economy. The stock market doesn't care at all. They're just like, "Oh, metrics. Let's get metrics. Let's get the buffins. They're upgrading, guys. We got to get those multiples going on." And then everyone just suddenly piles in. The stock market is really a great kind of read of exceptional fear, exceptional greed. And that's why in 2026, while a lot of people don't think it, you actually have a decent advantage in markets potentially just by thinking about the psychology of humans. And this is one of the things that we always talk about.
So the US 30-year is breaking up. Another thing is that we already alerted the idea that maybe we're starting to see a weakness in the economy based on the middle class and the lower class. Now, why are we noticing that? Well, it's that K-wave economy. Some people are spending out of control, eg San Francisco, property in America, guys. And then some people are struggling big. And we note that when we look at discretionary versus staples. Staples, particularly Costco. Actually, let's have a quick look here at Costco. You'll notice has been doing something a little bit strange, which is they're breaking out to new highs, whereas we're seeing other companies, especially discretionary ones, really struggling over the last couple of weeks in particular. Energy stocks spiked, which will come as no surprise after seeing the largest trade over here, guys. And this is something that we've been kind of witnessing for a few weeks. So, energy stocks on the move again. Will they break to the unknown? Well, of course, that means that we have to look at oil themselves. And we'll be checking barrels, particularly stuff like 115 a barrel, 120 a barrel. If we break through those on these mixed futures, that's going to be a pretty significant deal.
NASDAQ, meanwhile, guys, has it closed enough below the 2-hour 50 to stop the trend? Remember, we do want to see not only this two, the 50 moving average stop, but also the lower low effectively where people may have their stop losses, people may have, of course, their sequence trades, all sorts of things going on. These levels do matter. So, is this the first sign of significant weakness? You'd have to say yes in this whole trend. It's the worst we've seen it. And it's been a while. I mean, it's been a long time. But remember, it's the volatility entry into the market. Look at that. The biggest bear moves have only just happened after what has been a historic run. So we also want to be looking at semiconductors in particular and checking those markets out. Slight higher high this week, move down again. What did we note last week? We started to see volatility in the markets. Have a look here at the Kospi that's moving pretty heavy. This is the Korean market. Look at that. 8.33%, two monster sessions recoveries. All sorts of things going on. Very important charts to look at. We'll do deep dives on those after the Monday session. What's going on in DRAM? Again, tons of activity on this. That's the hardware trade with the so with the semiconductor trade. And we actually saw some other surprising things which was that gold got hit. Now, this is because gold actually doesn't like upgrade massive yield breakouts because it does kind of hurt it. It is a currency after all after all of this. So 5.1 not the best number for gold but it is back at that support of 4500 and it it also did the same thing to silver. So silver got hit really badly after hitting that first well the first resistance here, second resistance here, not quite that third one and it fell off a cliff. Now has it uh lost its trend and everything? No, it hasn't made a lower low but we will be watching these and it did come off the back of copper completing of course that pseudo flag. So yeah, there is there was some correlation between silver and copper, I guess, into this level, but I'm not that negative long-term on metals. I just think that they're going to cop it a little bit here as yields go through as this does put a bit of a flight to safety that comes onto the markets.
Software-wise, it actually had a great session. You can see here software was up on the session, guys. Is this a WO off bottom? Is it kind of playing that way? Big volume down the bottom as well. One of Wyckoff's favorite laws. Well, so far so good, I guess. Software up, semiconductors down. I guess that kind of makes sense in many many systems. And you can see here that the Chinese stocks while breaking up on everything going on with the US and China, they've now declined a little bit. Important support here on the session for the Monday. We'll see whether it can hold that 256, 255 level.
Now, what about Bitcoin? Well, it bounced and then it hit the 200 and then sold straight off. Yeah, it's struggling with the 200. So, is it down below a lower low? No. Is it down now below the beautiful 20 moving average? Yes. That's a little sad because of course you always want to see nice bounce and then break through here and then maybe a little smiley face guys. That'd be pretty cool if you're feeling bullish against this stock or this this crypto I guess. Uh, but 82,000 was not closed above the 200 moving average is a big deal and we are stuck between those zones. So at the moment it is Bitcoin all in focus and this was not good for Ethereum and the likes which we can see here dropped to actually kind of key first support, second support I guess which is 2200. So pretty important point there for Ethereum as well guys.
To summarize this market at the moment, I think it's going to be about catalysts and of course we're starting to see bits of news come out. I don't really want to go off the news as we often say if it's in the press, it's in the price. So, what we're looking for is generally speaking these being used as excuses and we're continuing to see flows themselves. Is there some meaningful weakness here? Well, volatility spiked and as you guys know, the fear of the unknown started to come through.
So, if you enjoyed today's video, please remember to subscribe, smash that like button, and also if you want to check out the sponsor of today's video, check them out in the links in the description below. Read the T's and C's, risk disclaimers, etc., and make sure whether the product is right for you. Thanks so much. We'll see you in the next one.