Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you guys had a restful weekend, right? I hope that you guys were using the time to backtest and not do, you know, stupid stuff that will not benefit you in the long run.
Anyways, as you guys know, we always start with the economic calendar, and you know why. I've said this multiple times before, so I won't repeat it in, you know, this live stream. Just by looking at the charts, you can see that we have a number of setups that should present themselves this week, right? And we will be focused on Thursday, right, to, you know, try to gauge the high or low of the week, right, in regards to the asset class that you are focusing on.
Tuesday, we have news at 10:00 a.m., right? So that could, you know, provide either expansion or reversal based on Monday's price action. If Monday's price action runs about runs above or below last week's high and there is sequential SMT, then we just would expect expansion on Tuesday. Then Wednesday, we would expect to see either continuation of that expansion, consolidation, right, or another sequential SMT. You know, something that you should understand and know is that, right, you will not see sequential SMT in two consecutive quarters, right? That is highly likely, right? And whenever that happens, it's due to the fact that there is very, very low volatility within the marketplace, or we're within a range-bound market, right?
And remember the tip that I gave you guys last week: whenever you see, right, the days which have the, you know, a majority of the USD high impact news, that's the days that will usually give you that one one shot, one kill for the week, right? And it's just based on looking at the economic calendar, right? So you already know that, right? If there is something to do on Monday, which would only, you know, be their there sequential SMT, right, between but between last week's high and this week's high, right, or low, right? The reason why that's unlikely, right, is because the high of last week was Thursday. So we could expect lackluster price action on Monday tomorrow.
Then Tuesday, we could see something present itself in the market. Wednesday, right, is news at 6:00 p.m., which equates to low probability, right? Basically, right, that's a brand new daily cycle opening with a high impact news event, right? You you want to stand clear of that, right? Because remember, 6 p.m. is when the daily cycle actually begins, right? So now this cycle that we're just going into, right, it's 6:09 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. This is actually Monday's Asian session, right? So that's how I look at it, right? So now is when I believe I see that Monday's cycle has begun. Tomorrow at 6 p.m. is when Tuesday's cycle will begin, and so on, right?
So this week, the highest probable day, right, that will more than likely bring you you you know, the easiest clearest setup will more than likely be Thursday, right? Thursday. So Monday, unless there's, right, sequential SMT, nothing to do. Tuesday, we will probably find something to do if Monday's lap lif in price action. Wednesday, we will more than likely do nothing, right? Thursday is when we will search for our one shot, one kill model, right? Entries will will more than likely be on the 1550 minute time frame. We will more than likely have SMT, sequ SMT between the sessions of the day, right? And if there is sequence between Thursday and Wednesday, right, then that would just make the setup C. Then Friday, we will have either, right, but more than likely we would have continuation of whatever Thursday does, right?
And all of that information that I just told you, right, it's derived from literally just looking at this, right? It's not, I don't care what these mean, right? I just look at the time where we have the high impact newer, like the time when the worded folder is, right? And then I use this to structure my schedule going into the new trading week, right?
Currently, you guys can see that we are pretty on point with what we wanted to see for the US dollar, right? We had the US dollar expand from a precision swing point, which is here, which is this candle right here. We had the Euro fall, and as we expected, we had the Great British pound fall, right? These highs right here, right, were and through on the pound. They were ran through on Euro, and we fell below these lows in regards to the dollar index. So actually, the precision swing point formed here where there was a previous new week opening gap. You guys can go back in your charts and look for this, or just use the indicator that I told you guys about, right? And pay attention to this specific time, right, where we had this low in the dollar form, this high in Euro form, and this high in the pound form, right? So we had a crack in correlation, something that, you know, you will learn about as we go along, right? So this was one of the other reasons why, you know, when price opened here, right, we expected higher prices, right?
So here, if you look, we wicked above this previous high, right? So pretend that this price action isn't here, right? We wicked above here, this high, and the highs, they must line up, right, with each asset class, each correlated asset class that you're looking at. So here we went above it, but here we did not, right? So it would look something like this, and this would be a form of SMT as well, right?
Currently for the dollar, still, right, draw liquidity still remains the same for us. Would be this high, this high right here would be the draw liquidity for us. And for the pound, we could see these lows being taken out, right? Right, currently nothing to actually, you know, act upon, right? We definitely need to see, right, at least Monday's range form, right? So we could have a previous day's high or low to work with, right? We can't use Friday's, right, due to the fact that it was actually just, you know, expansion, and we can't just use this alone, right? Also, there is a large pull of liquidity below here, right? Remember that when price was here, we expected lower prices, and this low was the first low that we were aiming for, which we got, right?
For the Euro, right, this was the first pool of liquidity that we wanted to see breached, which, you know, we were more than likely see breached this week. We had this high breached, which we were aiming for, but ultimately we wanted to see price trade above this high. This is also the high of the current quarter of the year, and this is the low of the current quarter of the year, and this is the world, the current quarter of the year. The only time when we will, you know, try to anticipate reversals is when, you know, price shows its hand. And how does it do that? By us seeing sequential SMT form, right? So we have this high and this low, right, which are very important. We are in, I would not call this premium, right? Because for this to be premium, there must be sequential SMT, which is not present at the moment. So at times, right, you will see price trade right up into levels that you will deem as, you know, overbought, but if there's not sequential SMT, then it is not overbought.
For the S&P 500, right, we have Buell liquidity above 5322.75, right? And this was the previous week's high, right? This is where we actually expected the high of the week to form, right? So this was the previous week's high, and what I would be looking for is if we see price run above this high, right, during this week, right, which is usually usually reversal, remember, right? So price runs above this high, and we have sequential SMT, right, during the daily cycle as well, right? Then we could expect lower prices, right? So it's not that, you know, I am, you know, remember, I'm never like two-sided, right? So it is, this is my thought, right, going to my head, as Michael would say, right? And it's using the concept that you, you know, you already know, right? So we have specific things that we look for, we have specific things that we must wait for, right? We don't just go in and randomly build a level, right? And there are no higher time frame levels above here, right? This is just an empty void, right? This is just liquidity.
So the only thing, right, to use, right, here, which, you know, will would not, you know, be deemed as the highest probability, right, but it is, you know, there is probability that we could see price lower, right? And that's due to the fact that, you know, we are entering into Q4 of this month, right? And Q4 is, you know, more prone to usually make sequential SMT on any other quarter, right? So usually you would hear that we have sec, you know, the high of the week usually forms and Tuesday, and that's not it. It's not even 35%, right? So the high of the week, low of the week, right, it's usually around Wednesday, Thursday, to be honest. Like if I, you know, would give you a day, like what's the best day to trade, will probably be Thursday, cuz Thursdays are prone for reversals, right? Why? Because it's Q4, and that's literally Q4 thing reversal. When does, doesn't Q4 reverse when there is not sequential SMT? So what would negate this, right? If you see price trading above here, right? Where if you see the ES trade above this high, if you see the Nasdaq trade above this high, and then if you see the Dow trade above this high, that would not be sequential SMT, right? What we would want to see is the Dow trade up, failed to break above this high, while Nasdaq breaks above this high, and ES breaks above this high, or, right, they could even all break above this high. But if we could have sequential SMT between, you know, Wednesday and Thursday, which would be Wednesday would be this green box here, six signifies the time, right, the day of week, and here would be Thursday.
So the only thing we should actually be cautious about this week is that we have unexpected news at 6:00 p.m. right Wednesday, which is not normal, right? And there are a lot of, you know, geopolitical disturbances within the air at the moment, right? So there's a lot of stuff going on in the world, a lot of stuff going on in the world, right, which will definitely have a toll on the markets, right? So anything could actually pop off right now, which would, you know, be consequential, right, or, you know, bad for the markets on a whole, right? And on a whole, I've said before that whenever you see the US dollar rally, and it usually indicates war, right, and stuff like that. So, um, you can see that the dollar has been bullish for a while, and what happens, you know, just due to that fact, right? We have a lot of stuff going on right now, which is, you know, actually insane. But, you know, it's not something to, you know, fear. You can't stop it, right? And, you know, sadly, this is the times when we see the markets move the most, right? This is the time when we will have the most volatility, when when there's a lot of distractions in the air.
So to, you know, I need to go over what I just said so you completely understand, right? So the dollar is rallying, and yes, we have Russian bombers on their way to Ukraine, right, right now, and it's actually, you know, insane, right? We have, you know, all these this news talking about a, what's it called, some magnetic force, whatever it is, I don't even know, even understand what it is, to be honest. I just believe that it's full, some geomagnetic storm that has impacted Earth garbage. All of these things, you know, are just smoke screens, right? Because remember, we have spoken about these things, right? If you've been listening, I try not to like put too much on it, but we have been spoken about these things for a while, right? And, you know, they will have happen. The news is just a distraction, right? You can see everything in the charts, literally, and that is how we usually come to our conclusions.
So this week, right, we should see some level of volatility, right? So it's Q4, right, of the month, which is prone for reversals, right? We are in, you know, close proximity to the high of the previous week, while, right, we are not close to the low of the previous week at all, right? So whenever you usually see, you know, price action like this, right, it's usually followed by manipulation, and then we have distribution to the downside, or, you know, if you were close to this low, you you would have price, you know, drop a lader low and rally. It's totally based on time, right? It has nothing to really do with price levels, right? You know, order blocks, fair value gaps, right? Fair value gaps are basically just something, you know, that just aids, you know, your confidence, right? But regardless of, you know, what level price is at, if the time is right, it will turn, right? There are times when price turns without any price levels, and why does that happen? It's not due to the fact, right, that the markets are random, because the markets are not random, and they do nothing that is random, right?
And currently, what are we doing, right? We are using, right, rule-based concepts, right? You have to follow the rules. You must have at least two sequential SMTs, a higher time frame cycle sequential SMT, which is followed by a lower time frame cycle sequential. It is better, right, to trade on the days when you have high impact news events, so you shouldn't be scared of them. Also, if you see price run above a high, there is sequence of SMT, right? And it's 30 minutes before the high impact news event is released. What does that mean? That indicates that the news event will not be manipulation, because the manipulation has already taken place. So when you see something like that happen, then you can just expect expansion, right? So it really doesn't matter, right? You shouldn't be scared of news events, you should just be focusing on what's here. Only thing that news does is push price in the direction that it should go, right? If they all and out, and yes, if they, if everything, you know, breaks above the high, then that's no sequential, right? We are not trying to, you know, force the market's hand, right? We we have to work with whatever it gives us, right? So if there is a setup, you should see it, but you should not be rushing, because if you rush, you'll get hurt. You don't want to get hurt, right? These things, they were work, and you'll see them working week after week, right? To me, it's boring now, and to you, it should be boring as well, because we're doing basically the same thing over and over again, and we're getting, you know, proper results.
If there is a setup right before news, right, if there's SMT happened in before news, what should you, what happens after that? Expansion, if usually that's what happens. So if the sequence SMT is already, you know, you know, made, it's already manifested in price, then the direction is already, you know, market already knows where it wants to go. It's not going to run below that low, that that was caused by sequential SMT, it's just going to go in a straight line, which is what usually happens on days like CPI, right? And sometimes FOMC and so on.
So I hope that you guys, you know, took something from this today. I believe that it was very, you know, straight to the point, which is basically what I wanted, right? So, you know, which day to be focusing on, right? You know, what to do during those days, right? You know, what you're supposed to be looking for, right? And I need you to actively be looking for this, these things, right? And note that whenever you're looking for previous week's highs or lows, or previous day's highs or lows, or the previous session's highs or lows, you need to be focusing on the immediate previous high, right? Not a high from two years ago, the high last year. And if there is, and if price is not close to that high, then you focus on the monthly cycle, right? So you focus on the months, right? So if there's nothing to work with within the yearly cycle, you focus on the monthly cycle. And I hope that, you know, I didn't, what do you call it, get anyone, you know, messed up on that, right? So you need to understand this.
So first of all, right, you have the quarterly cycle, right? And the quarterly cycle is comprised of four years, right? One year per quarter. Then you have the yearly cycle is comprised of months. Then after that, what do you have? The weekly cycle is comprised of what? You know, days. So price will go through the specific swing points which will form, right, which would be highs or lows. If price reaches, you know, two years behind, right, then it price will more than likely be continuing, right? So you don't want to see on, you know, Wednesday, price wick below Monday's low and then you expect to be bearish. No, and then you expect to be bullish. No, that would usually lead to continuation, right? Price would usually just continue to fall, why? Because the algorithm refers to the pre immediate previous highs in regards to specific time frames, which is why you have the cycles, right?
So for example, right, this year, right, we're we're currently not close, right, at all to the previous year's high, which is here in the dollar index, right? We already have sequential SMT, right, which occurred on a lower time frame cycle than the quarterly cycle, right? So this was sequential SMT between the quarters of the year, right? So price fell here, we had sequential SMT, and then that's what led to price going higher, and this is why we have also had price going lower here as well, right? And this was Q4's high of last year, right? December's high. Price ran above January this year, then fell, right? Ultimately, right, if you focus on the, you know, the how your time frame cycles, you will get, you know, more explosive moves, right? It's like a gear, right? It's like gears. The K general so calibrates whichever direction that's sending price into, then that's where price will go. Or if there is no specific direction that price wants to go, then it will just, you know, be chopping around within the yearly cycle. You just see up, down, up, down until something happens, and then we have, you know, that higher time frame shift of sentiment that you would like to see, right?
If you are an intraday trader, you you know, you want to be focused on the at least the monthly cycle, which, you know, you will learn about a different way as we go along. I've I've I've told you already that there are 13 weeks in each quarter of the year, right? There are 13 weeks in each quarter of year. With just that information, right, you would reflect upon every, you know, previous immediate previous week during the week that you were, you know, trading within. And right, if there is, you know, no immediate previous week's high for you to reflect upon, or immediate immediate previous week's low to reflect upon, you would focus on the weekly cycle, which is comprised of actually five days: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, right?
So when will Monday reverse? If it runs above Friday's pre Friday's high, the last week's Friday, right? And there is sequential SMT, which is followed by sequential SMT when, which is followed by sequential SMT during the daily cycle, which is comprised of sessions, four sessions, right? ICT's one shot, one kill. When is the, when the London higher the high day? When, when, when is that? When there is SMT, right, between the Asian session, the London session, that's been it's the high of the day. He's and it's not 70% of the time, right? It fluctuates. Sometimes it's the New York session, sometimes it's the afternoon session. It's your job to go in and look for, you know, what's there, because it's always there, and when it's there, it's beautiful, right? It's not like, you know, you're struggling, oh my God, and you don't know, you know, when to expect price to turn around. You know exactly when to expect price to turn around, right?
When is the New York session the higher the low to day? Whenever you have sequenced SMT between the New York session and the London session, that's when what makes it more probable. When you have high impact news events during that time, during that specific, you know, quarter of the day.
I hope that you guys took something, you know, from this, right? And remember everything that we talked about, right? Reflect upon everything. Go back, look at the economic calendar, try to envision the, you know, volatility this week. Albeit it hasn't already, it hasn't happened just yet, right? Try to see it happening, and then, you know, you will see that manifest itself in price this week, right? This week should, you know, be one, you know, that is probably one that we've never seen before, because all the things that are going on right now, it's actually insane. You know, can't keep up with everything. There are distractions everywhere, everywhere. Like if you turn right, there's distraction, left, there's distraction, you look up, distraction, down, distraction. They're they're just trying to, you know, distract us from something, something that they, you know, don't want us to be focused on, or don't want us to see, or don't want us to prepare for.
So I hope that you guys, you know, found this, you know, easy to understand, and I will be back with you guys during the course of this week, as usual, for sure. You know, we have Wednesday where, you know, we drop gems, you know, we strengthen the knowledge that we already have, and then, and, you know, Friday, we'll probably be back again, right, where we will, you know, reflect upon, you know, the week's price action, what we got, right, what we could have done better, you know, and so on. So that being said, have a wonderful Sunday, and I hope that you have an amazing trading week. If you focus on Thursday, you probably will have a nice [Music] day. All you want to me is a bre OB session. I am theing t on the street. How many times I ask you? How many days can I go without you? [Music] [Music] [Music] The distance is a killer. [Music] Fire. How many days can I go without you? [Music] A [Music] A [Music]