Transcription
As they kept collapsing, Trump saw that after the collapse, there was no way to get the Strait of Hormuz back from Iran. Therefore, he threatened to escalate, saying there would be bridge collapses, affecting power plants, and desalination plants. Iran then fought back. The US showcase, with 3 deaths at this time. The movement of oil tankers in large numbers, are they going to do the same thing again? That is, sending B2 bombers to bomb Iran's nuclear development facilities. The president of the world's number 1 superpower must end it gracefully. [Music] >> This is the general feed system in [Music][Singing] the market. And this is Fan >> Fuel cost management system with no hidden fees, plus benefits and Max Points. Hello, Professor Teerachai. >> Hello, Khun Thani. >> Professor Teerachai Phurananan, former Minister of Finance, is here today as a news analyst and one of Iran's experts in Thailand. I've seen many of your posts, so I'm interested in asking you to analyze a bit. What are the impacts of bombing or shooting at Iran's freshwater plants? Professor, does it cause problems for Iran? Or even bombing nuclear power plants in Iran, will it make Iran surrender? Or is there a way? If it collapses for 10 days, will Iran surrender? Professor, please. >> I must start by saying that in terms of knowledge and depth about the situation in Iran, I think I am second to Khun Thani now. [Laughter] After Khun Thani observed it, he was able to experience the information himself. The problem now stems from the MOU that Trump wants oil prices to go down. Therefore, he sees that there are ships carrying oil, ready to depart. Just sign the MOU, and all of it, 130 or 150 million barrels, is already on the ships. So, within a week or two, it can all be released. Therefore, he wants it to be released, which will push oil prices down. This is what is in his mind, so he agreed to the MOU. You will notice that many people criticize, saying that America only gives and gives. So, it's like a document of surrender, a surrender of war by the United States. As for Iran, in reality, they have gained two tangible things. First, they prepared oil tankers. When the time comes, they will release their oil tankers first. So, at this time, Iran's oil tankers are floating tanks waiting in Southeast Asia. Waiting for when China is ready to receive the oil, they will send it in. Therefore, at least Iran will have foreign currency from selling oil to sustain itself. In this regard, Iran is aiming for this benefit. Another point is that they wrote in Article 5 of the MOU, using very clear wording, that Iran alone, Iran as a country, will be the one to manage and allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump at that time probably wanted oil prices to drop quickly, so he had to accept it. But after accepting it, he changed his mind because he was heavily criticized for making an MOU that was disadvantageous. So, he tried to find a way to open the Strait of Oman to compete with Iran. Iran did not agree, which is normal. Iran attacked American ships, and they attacked each other. Now, as they kept collapsing, at the end of last week, I think Trump realized that after the collapse, there was no way to get the Strait of Hormuz back from Iran. So, he threatened to escalate. From now on, he will collapse civilian infrastructure, whether it's bridges, power plants, or desalination plants. It turns out that before they could even start, at the beginning of this week, at the end of last week, they already went ahead. And it turns out they collapsed a bridge near Chahbahar, on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, in Iran, and affected power plants and freshwater production facilities in Iran. Now, the desalination plants for Iran, because Iran has a very mountainous terrain, with mountains over 1000 meters, 2000 meters, etc., it can capture moisture in the air, clouds that float by, and turn them into rivers. Iran has a lot of freshwater within the country. Iran uses desalination technology for only about less than 5% of its total water consumption. It is used along the coast. Therefore, when Trump bombed one plant, it caused people in that plant, which I believe supplied water to about 20 villages, to be without water. There were about a hundred thousand people, but because the US military bombed the bridge, it would be difficult for the government to bring freshwater from the mainland to help the coastal area. So, Iran fought back. Before that, Iran attacked American military targets in bases in various countries, mainly in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Jordan, focusing on military targets. After they were attacked at the desalination plant, they shifted their focus to attacking the desalination plants of Arab countries. They cited Kuwait as a single example because Kuwait allowed America to place missiles there and fire them into Iran. These are the same missiles that America gave to Ukraine to fire into Russia. Therefore, they had to destroy Kuwait's infrastructure as an example. When Kuwait was hit, it was a big deal. Because even though Iran uses desalination for less than 5% of its water, Kuwait uses almost 100% from desalination. Other Arab countries also use over 90%, such as Bahrain and others in that region. Except for Saudi Arabia, which might be a bit lower, around 70%, but still high. Therefore, Iran's attack on desalination plants in Arab countries is a strike at their weak point. And I think it made these countries tell Trump that they can no longer attack equipment related to desalination, or even attack the power system, because the power system is what drives the desalination plants. For this reason, after that, US attacks will avoid the desalination plants, but will focus on Iranian military targets. However, they are trying to escalate the intensity. And from the information I see, there is a movement of refueling aircraft, which are Boeing aircraft like the ones we fly on international trips, but instead of full of passengers, they are filled with jet fuel to refuel fighter jets and aircraft that attack Iran. But this time, Khun Thani, I believe they have moved about 100 refueling aircraft, indicating that they are preparing for a major operation. It's like the situation is escalating, escalating, escalating. >> What Professor Teerachai said makes me feel that the back-and-forth attacks for 10 days must extend to 20, 30, 40 days. This kind of war, the Hamas war, and the war of mutual destruction using missiles and drones, I don't know how it can end. How can negotiations happen? And Iran says no negotiation, Trump says no negotiation. Will it be a prolonged war like Ukraine, or will it end quickly, Professor? >> This is difficult to predict, as we don't have internal information. But I look at the supporting information like this: When the US was attacked at bases near Iran, whether it was Kuwait, Bahrain, or UAE, they moved aircraft and equipment to Jordan. Jordan is 1,400-1,500 kilometers away from Iran, which is very far. It turns out that Iran attacked Jordan multiple times, penetrating accurately. And the nature of this accurate penetration, Khun Thani, you must understand that the US airbase in Jordan is very large, it's their main base. Generally, there are no less than 60 aircraft stationed there at all times, and it's a base that monitors the situation in Syria, Iraq, and surrounding areas. Therefore, this base is used to protect Israel. When Iran attacked Israel, at that time, the US radars were ready. So, they would see the radars, and those nearby, whether it was Kuwait, Bahrain, etc., radars would see Iranian missiles flying overhead. They would immediately report that they were coming. Then, US aircraft in Jordan would take off from the airport and fly in wait. When they saw missiles or drones coming, they would intercept them. Therefore, the US base in Jordan is their pride and joy. And a base like this, it's impossible to say it doesn't have defense capabilities. Oh, it must have teeth, whether it's THAAD missiles, Patriot missiles, there must be many. It turns out they couldn't stop them. Someone sent a clip. When Iranian missiles entered, later it turned out that Iran was able to develop missiles that were unconventional. That is, when they go, in the final moments, normally, when a missile comes, the computer can tell you where it will be at this second, at that second. It can calculate it. But when it goes, it turns out it can have small motors or small thrusters that make it deviate at the end. Just 1 or 2 degrees deviation when it's about to land is enough to not be stopped. Or it can change its final small thruster, which comes out when it's close to the ground, and explodes, increasing its speed. That's enough to not be stopped. Therefore, the base that is the apple of their eye, a showcase for America, was attacked. And one of the heavily attacked targets is this: the accommodation. Looking at satellite images, we see that they used shipping containers, stacked them, and put soldiers in them, arranged in rows. When Iranian missiles hit, 2 or 3 people have died so far. But the latest information is that C130 aircraft, which are troop transport aircraft, modified to transport injured soldiers from Jordan to Europe, have flown in large numbers. This indicates that there must be injured soldiers who need to be rushed for treatment, to hospitals in Europe, whether in Italy, Germany, or England. There are quite a few. In conclusion, if I were Trump, I would think that the exchange is not worth it. Therefore, I must find a way to end it. In terms of the president of the world's number 1 superpower, and if I want to end it, I must end it gracefully. I must come out and say, "Here, I ended it because I chose to end it, and I ended it victoriously." So, I sit and think about what method would allow me to end it as a winner. I look at the movement of so many oil tankers. So, I asked AI. [Laughter] I'm wondering if they are going to do the same thing again. That is, sending B2 bombers, which fly out from Minnesota, from America, fly across the world, refueling along the way, to bomb Iran's nuclear development facilities to close the game. AI said it's highly possible. I asked why. Because Iran has dug its nuclear development facilities into the mountains. And the main target mountain, in English, is called "Peyvand," meaning a digging tool, but a striking tool. They named it after an Iranian name, Farsi, calling it the "digging hoe" mountain because it's very hard, so hard that it took a long time to make a hole underneath, a tunnel. So, this is Trump's target. And suppose Trump wants to bomb it and have an effect, it might not reach the facility. But at least, suppose they bomb it to close the entrance and exit, for example, to block it for 6 months or a year. If it's like this, the bomb they will drop must be what is called a "bunker buster" bomb in English. It's a very large bomb. And when it goes down, it will have bombs hidden inside, arranged in rows. It will explode, explode, explode to penetrate. According to information, when it penetrates a strong concrete wall, it can penetrate up to 60 meters. It won't reach the facility because the facility is said to be 100 meters deep or more. But if it goes down and closes the tunnel entrance and exit, it might be possible. Now, in this direction, believe it or not, the bomb I mentioned is very heavy, very large, and one of the heaviest bombs. One bomb weighs 13 tons, not 13 kilograms, 13 tons. [Cough] And the aircraft that can carry it is only one type, the one used for bombing last time, which is the B2 stealth bomber. And one can carry 2 bombs. So, I guess if it's like this, AI explained that if it goes like this, it consumes a lot of fuel because the weight of the bomb is very heavy. So, they will have to refuel the B2. Besides this, when the B2 travels, it needs fighter jets, usually a swarm, to protect it, whether it's to protect aircraft that might cause interference or to protect against ground-fired missiles. These also need refueling. So, I guess they are preparing for a major operation. And when it's all done, they will probably announce that the nuclear issue, which was waiting for Iran to discuss how to proceed, whether to allow inspectors from the World Nuclear Organization to inspect or something, which Iran refused, no need to discuss, because it's now buried by these bombs, bunker buster bombs. In this direction, if I analyze it, if I were Trump, I think I could temporarily withdraw from the situation. But if it's announced like that, he might have to say that if this is the case, the Strait of Hormuz is the responsibility of whoever benefits, whether it's Korea, Japan, or China. If you want oil, you go and protect your own ships. That's how I see Trump's way of clearing things up. This is my own guess, which might be wrong, but I guess it will come out in this direction. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the DB Thao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.