Transcription
Good morning everybody. Sorry for being so late. Hold on one second. Get you a fancy opening, some tunes. Hey, hey, hey. Hey. Oh, they didn't give you the thing. Hold on. Hey guys.
All right, let me flip one of these over to this, and I'm going to speak quickly, and then I'm going to answer any questions that you have, uh, about this. And I'm just going to tell you off the rip. Let's clean it off, and we'll start over. Uh, just off the rip, I'm going to tell you exactly where my head is with this. I'm in no hurry to buy here, like at all. Uh, I really hope that it runs because it's a lot more fun to do that. But, um, where's your low here? 737350, 7359. And you kind of bounced off of it, and then you came here, 735550, 7359. So you undercut, and now you're bouncing this morning. Um, you can definitely watch it and see if that, you know, if it holds or it doesn't hold. I, I'm not really in a hurry here. Like, I'm just going to be blunt about it. Like, maybe we hold here, maybe we don't. I'm not in a huge hurry here to think that I got to act off the first hour. Um, my sense of this is very, very different on on how I'm going to play this. So I just want to be, you know, really honest about that.
Um, and give me one second here because I see a problem on something that's going to drive me nuts because I didn't act on it earlier. All right. Thank you. All right, give me one second. Um, so sorry guys. Um, but in regards to the index, give me a second here. So much crap going on. It's nuts. Apologies.
Um, so in regards to something like this, um, to me, I, I think you need to be super freaking careful on on what's happening out there. Like, really, really careful until you get a sense of the market. And, you know, rising wedges tend to end in tears, especially when they look like bear pendants. So, and if you go and take a look here, that's really what you have this morning. So, this idea that I'm going to be like, "Oh, it's all better now." Okay. Like, you know, you're bleeding from every orifice on Friday, but like I'm supposed to run back in for more bludgeoning today. Yeah. No, thank you. So, I have a very different outlook on these kinds of days. And, um, like a very different outlook on these kinds of days, and I, I really can't stress that enough. Where when I see this kind of thing, I, I tend to take a look at what the hoop heads are doing, and they, they can't wait to get in. They got to get in. Where I just kind of like chill out. I'm not saying I won't trade, but like, I'm in no hurry here to like, you know, do a lot. Like, I'm, I'm in really no hurry there at all to like get super involved.
Um, hold on one second. So, I really think, um, I really think you got to be careful here. And I guess that's where I'm going with it. Let's get to it. So, I got that little suck salad. Um, and, you know, maybe, maybe it goes right back. Maybe everybody that sold 100 million shares, maybe they made a mistake and they hit the wrong button, right? So, we can go on that premise. Sure.
So, let's take a look at what you have from last night. And I think that's a good place to start. So, we'll go to Sunday. Sunday. Sunday. Sunday. Race fans. And you'll see that you're already out of like Sunday's like kind of range in here. And which is good, right? And they go to Friday. Let's go to this. Go. Where did we close on Friday? At four o'clock here. All right. So, this is where we closed on 4:00 on right on Friday. Okay, cool. Tried to hit it, broke, hit it, hit it. So, that became support. So, that's a good thing. So, we got that going for us. Let's go take a look at a couple other things. So, let's go take a look at the peak of the market from here. Okay, so broke, tries to get over on Thursday. Can't, can't. So, I'm probably going to leave that there as we have a level. But at the same time, you can already see this level right here, right? And so we probably want to watch, you know, watch that and see how that goes. Um, see what that turns into. But from my perspective on something like this, what I really want to do is go back about a week. And I'm going to clean all that off now. And then I'm going to go and say, where were we? And we'll go back to let's go back to like June 1st. I think that's a good spot to start, don't you? And that's that Monday. So, let's go right there. So, we'll go to that Sunday, May 31st. All right. It doesn't have to be perfect exact, but you get it. Um, that's probably your resistance point from here. And so, you're probably the chances of you probably getting through that are probably pretty slim. And at least this round, this way around. So, and then we're hitting certain areas in here that are going to start being resistance as well. So, that's really how I see that area and that band up there.
Um, if I come to something like this, and I'm going to have to zoom out. When in doubt, zoom out and come all the way back to here. We go to this April low, and we would drop that level. I, I don't know that you're breaking that, but that's really how I see this trading trading out. Like, there's a little bit of a level here. Um, and you can kind of see it if you come across, right? You fought it, tried to get through it, broke it, never really tested it. You're testing it now. Where do I think you can get to? I think you can get here. So then, if I wanted to overlay some other levels on what's going on there, the way that I look at the market, again, this is what you should do, what you're comfortable with. Let's use the magnet so I don't screw it up. We can go go further faster. And then what I would do is go and just leave that right here. And then you'll see that you're already stopping at the 32% line from the peak, right? So, I'm sure that's a coincidence. So, you're stopping right at 382 and you're kind of rejecting off that level, and you'd really want to flip this 50 if you were going to do anything and then kind of go from there. But, if you were asking me like lay of the land like, "Hey, what do you think?" Yeah. I'd watch that 382 before you get net buyers, you have to flip up here and then kind of go from there. And that's kind of how I see that playing out today. Um, and that's what I would do and how I look at the futures market.
Now, if I go and take a look at NQ right here, um, as well, you're probably get something very similar. So, I'm going to clean that off. And what we'll do is the same thing. And the other thing that I, I'll say for time's sake, uh, is they dropped the put wall. So, your put wall did drop pretty precipitously on the cues. Um, they usually don't do that unless they think you're going lower, right? Because they want to hedge as much as they possibly can. So, they've hedged a little further out. Come on, little guy. You can do it. I believe in you. Yay.
So, you're getting that little ledge right here too where you broke. Now, when we did this last time, you'll remember this area right here. And we did this, I believe, on Friday for you guys. Uh, and we said, "Hey, you know, watch that, you know, watch that level in here because if that goes, you know, you're probably going to have an issue." Um, and then that level went. And if you drop drill into that level, you'll actually see that there it was like a battleground where you kept hitting it, hitting it, hitting it, and then eventually it just gave way. And that let us know like, hey, stay out of the way. But I'll be candid. I, I had no idea it was going to get this bad. You know, you had a, I think it was a fourth standard deviation move on on Friday. So, that's like like not something that you're going to see a lot of. Um, so it's definitely on my it's definitely on my radar. But if we were going to say like where would you have to see a retest of like probably there. So, what is where does this put us? So, if we go take a look at the five again, to me, I would go back to that peak, to that low, and then say, "All right, well, what are these levels doing?" And where are we? So, let's try and get that. Perfect. There it is. All right. Yay. And then once again, when we drop it, well, I can drop it down a little better. I can drop it hotter than that. And then I want to watch that 382 and just watch what's going there. And we're already respecting that 236. So, I know that I'm already, you know, the cat's pajamas, but we all knew that. So then I would just look at that and say, "All right, well, that at least gives me like a lay of the land or what I should be looking at for the market as a whole." Um, and then kind of go from there, right? So for me, that's kind of how I see things. And then what I would do is then just kind of extrapolate it out.
I fully expect a rally off the open. Like, I'm not, that's not rocket science at this point. I don't know how long it lasts, and I think that that's the point that people are get aren't getting. Like institutions are not buying stocks because Jensen told them to. Retail is right. So like you guys know that, right? Like I'm not telling you anything you don't know. If you look at the cues, and then I'll take questions. Um, but if you look at the Q's, you know, they dropped that put wall. Hold on. Let's let this little guy go. Model.
>> So, if I if I look at the put wall here, um, no, you're still at 700. It was the spy. They dropped to 722, I think. 725. Give me a second. I'll tell you. 700 there. 720 from 750. So, they're looking for more downside protection here. Um, and and so that's definitely something that we have to we have to pay attention to. So, that's where my head is with all this, and that's how I would view the world right now. And I don't think that I'm wrong in viewing it that way. And again, from a swing trade perspective, you know, I'm below the 22. I use a 12, a 22, and a 55. You should use what you're comfortable with. Um, I'm going to just take a bunch of questions uh for the next 10-15 minutes, and I think that's the best use of our time.
Two things. I would definitely watch Saturday's video. Um, I would, I would definitely watch Saturday's video because it tells you it, it tells you how what I'm thinking. Um, and and for those that are trying to get on the waitlist, get on the if you're trying to get in the community, get on the waitlist. But I'm just going to tell everyone ahead of time, uh, that waitlist, you're probably, it's done till July, um, at this point, unless you get referred in because I just have a lot of onboarding calls, and this month is going to be freaking nuts, and I do all the onboarding calls. Uh, basically, global warming, tech, ETF, single names.
Uh, I have no interest in buying this dip, man. Like, zero. Like, I, I can't think of anything I want to do less than buy this. Um, as you know, Jay, I'll, I'll day trade all around it. But do I care that I blew out of stuff on Friday and it's a little bit higher than it is now? From a swing trade perspective, no. I, I think if you're swing trading and you didn't close on Friday and you're looking at today and you're getting a, you're getting this and you're like, "Oh, I knew I shouldn't have honored my process." Yeah. God's about to teach you a lesson. That's that's kind of how I, how I look at this. Like you have so much going on this this week, man. And so much of it looks bad. CPI, PPI is going to be a disaster. Um, how much of that disaster is built in, I have no clue, but those numbers are going to be brutal. Um, and I don't know how much that's built in. Candidly, I don't. And then you have Oracle. Oracle concerns me even though I got calls now that are wallpaper. Uh, Oracle really concerns me with the amount of volume for the past two days. If you really look at the chart, how they had to get out of it, and it's very frustrating because to me it looked like it was going to, you know, really go. But nonetheless, it is what it is. That's the game. Um, so that's definitely a concern. The other concern I have is that AVGO can't even hold its 55. So people are getting excited and they're buying it today. Yeah. I, I don't know about all that. Like, I, I mean from my, again, from my perspective looking at this this morning, this is probably a pretty darn easy one that people are going to blow out of um more than like the DRAM and stuff like that. And the reason for that is fairly simple. Um, I'll just give you like my, you know, my take on it as to why I say that is because, uh, a lot of people are going to look at this and say to themselves, you know, myself included, like, okay, you didn't want to own it and you missed on your AI chip sales, like of all the names to buy, you don't want to buy the one that's missing AI chip sales, right? Or lowered guidance, right? I get the whole DRAM part of the trade. So, you know, that might have some more teeth in it, but I still believe that they want to sell these names so that they can go buy SpaceX. So, you know, until I see differently on that, that's really where my head is with all of this. So, I'm not in a huge hurry to chase any of this stuff like at all. And I fully believe that like, you know, you could until these things start taking out the previous highs from Friday and closing over them, then maybe I'll feel that way. But with that level of volatility that I had yesterday and the level of volatility I saw last night, I mean, the overnight market was like the wild west last night.
So, AMT, FedEx, yeah, they're all moving in in they're all moving in lockstep. Um, this makes a lot of sense to me. I, I never really got why it was down to be honest. Um, I could totally see why someone would be interested in that trade. That makes a lot of a lot of sense. Um, I do get the upgrades on like the SanDisk and the stuff like that. And I'm not saying that they're not going to get there. I just think you have a liquidity issue. I, there's a very big difference on how I am viewing all of this. So, I, I want to be really clear about that. Um, and that's really kind of like where my head is with this. So, just FYI. So, I don't think that they're not going higher. I just don't know that they're going higher today. So, it's a very different kind of trade.
Uh, in regards to this kind of stuff like the STNG and and all these the tankers, um, I think they're telling you a very strong story. I think they're telling you the same story that like VLOO, MPC are telling you, PSX. Uh, to me, it's very, very clear that these names, uh, and that nothing's going to happen in Iran, like nothing. Um, bombs, no bombs, peace, no peace. Um, it's very clear the US is not charged. I don't know how. It's not a political statement. They're just not charged of what's going on. Um, that's okay. Just realize what's actually going on. It's not us. So, I'm in the US obviously. So, like, it is what it is. And there's not a whole heck of a lot we're going to do to change that. The crude oil thing is becoming a real problem now. You look at crude oil and you're like, "Well, it's not going anywhere." No, it's not. Um, but it probably, you know, it's probably going to eventually like start breaking out in my opinion. So, um, you're getting insanely tight in here. So, I, I have a lot of people that watch this stuff very, very closely that think that you're going to break out, and they know more than I do. Uh, they're very good with oil. I am not. Like, it's not my, it's their forte. It's not mine. Um, and this is, you know, a big deal for them.
And if I look at something like that, what I do is here, I'll take that just back envelope way to look at this and get rid of everything. Look at the 50% line, and you can see it where how much of it, right? So, like here, if I take 50% here, right? Let's get rid of this magnet for it drives me nuts. And you can see that opening price, right? And I just go to here and come across. How much was down here in that in that section, right? And then you would go, how much is up here in this section? And then what I would do with that here, and I'll show you like a real like simple way for me to do this. We'll just make that green. So, you can almost see the demarcation line when you look at it like right here, right? Like whatever happened April 23rd, I, I don't know what happened then, but, um, what you would have to look at is say to yourself like, "All right, well, in this situation, um, hold on one second here. In this situation, what I'm seeing is I'm seeing a name that is definitely right bonking around, right?" But you have a mark here, and since that mark, April 23rd, you couldn't get over, and I think that's really important. Um, I, I think that you're breaking out. I think you're going to go a lot higher. So, that's really where my head is with this, and that's kind of how I view it. So, I don't think it's much more than that. Um, I think it's a matter of time. I hope that helps.
Uh, insurance names. By the time I play that game, it just goes the other way on me, to be honest. So, I, you know, they'll buy the value names. I'm not knocking it. I did look at this. Um, I did look at this because earnings were fantastic, and you started to look like you're breaking out, but I, I don't really do a lot of swing trades in environments like this because I, I need to start at least closing over the 22, and I'm just not there like at all. Um, so I, I really need to see something like that and then kind of go from there. I, I'm not a big, I got to rush into this stuff, even if it gets away from me. Even if Micron gets away from me or Sandis gets away from me, I'm always of the school of thought like, I'll just make it later because from a day trade perspective, it's one thing. From a swing trade, it's completely different. Um, you know, and then we'll kind of go from there. So, I, I really think that that's very important for us uh to look at and to kind of take a to get a sense of, you know, where we're at. But I, I, I like these names a lot. Like, I think they're good, but I don't know, man. Who, who are they bidding them up for? Do you know what I mean? Who are they bidding them up for? When you think about it that way, it's a little bit different.
What's up, Jacob? Yeah, I think that the Heinix listing super interesting. Uh, the EWY bidding right up into this. Um, to me, yeah, I mean, I'm not going near this stuff right now. Um, I like that deal. I think it's great. I don't think it's fantastic for Micron, but it doesn't really matter. Like, these guys are sold out to 29. For me, it's more a function of like, when I look at this stuff, it's really more a function of like, do I want to get involved today in this stuff? And the answer to that, I'm just going to tell you what what I'm doing. It's no. Like, I'm not going to hold charts that look like this and then hope I get a day like this. I, I've seen what hope does. It destroys accounts and gives margin calls. Um, I would rather it set up properly and go from there. For me to play the SKH Heinix trade and to have it in the US makes a ton of sense. Uh, they'll get a ton of value out of that. Um, you know, DRAM is Samsung, SKHX, and Micron makes tons of sense to me to to do something like that, right? To get involved in that. And that makes, you know, that's definitely something that I'd be looking at, but I don't know, man. I, I don't know. You gotta do too much there. Um, you know, I, I don't know. You got to be in a huge hurry here. I, I think the idea is to create the hurry, you know, if that makes sense.
Um, if I'm to to look at this like like it seems like the idea is to kind of Let me do this real quick. See if I have it here. So, the idea seems to me to kind of create the hurry. Um, you know, let's go look here. So, you've got a lot of volume this morning, but it's not like through the roof. It's not crazy. So, you know, I doubt institutions that blew out on Friday are saying, "Boy, I really made a mistake." Um, I think they're derisking, and I don't know that they're going to derisk. Uh, I don't think de-risking to them is a day. And that's really my larger concern with this kind of trade. So, like I always want to watch that kind of thing. So, hopefully that makes sense.
Um, what's going on, buddy? CASY. So if I look at something like CASY, I couldn't hold the 55, and I'm going into earnings. I, it's not my kind of trade, you know, once these things start breaking them. Like, I, even no matter how much I love them, like I, I get out. I don't play with them because maybe there's something there. Maybe they didn't get the deal they wanted. You know what I mean? Like, there could be a whole litany of reasons for that. Um, so I'd watch that. I, I do think that SanDisk is insanely cheap. I think Micron's insanely cheap. I think EWI is insanely cheap. That doesn't mean they can't get cheaper if people want to sell and get out of the way. And that's really where my uh where my head would be today on a lot of this stuff. So, that's really how I'm, you know, how I'm going to view this, at least off the open. Um, and then if I'm proved wrong in an hour, cool. Prove me wrong in an hour. But I, I don't need to be, you know, paying 940 and then an hour later on my swing I'm looking at 860. And if you think it can't happen, okay, you know, I, I don't think that 70 million, you know, shares made the wrong move on Friday. Now you're back to open. You know, obviously anybody that wanted to buy this to come in on this on an options trade on a call, they're going to have a really good day. Buying that on Friday at the close and saying that this is going to happen is called delusional. Um, and maybe, you know, maybe you get right, but that's not a process that that's going to keep you around for a couple decades. I've seen those processes before. So, I think everybody needs to chill out and let it settle in. And if it's going to build, then let it build. But you could just get a lot of um a lot of squeeze. It could get real squeezy, and then people like, "That's it. I missed it." Then they get in, and then by like one o'clock they're looking at a different market. But waiting that hour and letting it settle up, settle in, and then build something. Um, you know, I say this all the time for the guys that are like in the community when they watch me day trade off the open. Like, I'm using one-minute charts, and my whole time could be five or 10 minutes to like tops. It's only got all all it is is pattern recognition, you know, like it's got nothing to do with even what the company does. But to go out there and like put real money to work. Yeah. No, it's a very different game right now. And you need to see you need to see that like you're going to hold. Like it's very again, I'll just show you what I mean by this. Like, this is your chart on Friday, and you tried to get over at the close on Friday, and they o under overcut you, and then they took it to new lows, and you think those people are rushing into that right now? Okay. So, you know, to me it presents uh, hey, maybe you wanna, you know, you know, maybe you want to short, you know, like to me it's like, or I was looking at this this morning going, man, keep bidding up. Like, you know, you've closed over the 22 on the SQ. I was looking at this and saying to myself, like for third for a dollar, dollar and a half at one point this morning, like that was my risk on that trade. And if I'm right, like, and you catch this, you really just want to watch the VIX, too. Like, what are they going to do? Are they gonna really sell it down or does that close back over 20? There's a lot going on there. So, you probably just want to watch.
Um, I think the space names are in trouble. No, I don't. I, I really don't. So, I don't think they're going to change it. Yeah. And I don't think people even understood that Cosby was limit down. I don't think they even get that that the Korean stock market was literally limit down last night. And they're all like rushing into our market. Um, I, and I don't really pay attention to this trade, so I'm just going to show it because I know a lot of you guys are doing it, but like a lot of people are watching this Japanese trade, the Japanese yen trade, and thinking there's an issue there. I don't think that's the I don't think that's the thing for me. It's where's the money? And then everyone's piling in this morning because they have to get in. I got to get in. I knew it. This was my chance. Jensen said so. Okay, tell me how it goes in an hour. You know, that's that's really where my head is with this. And I, I think that if you think like that, and maybe it's not the DRAM space, right, where the short is, maybe the short is, you know, Tesla or AVGO or some of those names, you know? So, I, I think that you have to look at this a little differently. It just might be the whole sector. It might just be easier instead of like picking. Um, and go from there.
Sats concerns me. The whole trade concerns me. Um, I was long this. I did exceptionally well with it. Then when they started getting sued, I got out of it. Uh, because they're suing for the stake in the company. So, like, I just didn't want to play the game. Um, you know, play the game. Do you know what I mean? Play the game. Um, if you want, but how do I look at this? I think all this stuff's going to get smoked beyond recognition. Like, I think this stuff's going to blow up like big time this week. I, I, I've been wrong before, but I think people are going to look at this stuff and where it is right now and can't believe like where this stuff could be in a week, like how bad this could get. Um, they are shoving this thing down people's throats. They are shoving SpaceX down people's throats. So, you know, you'll see this all the time with these IPOs. Oh, it's such a success. For who? Who was it a success for? You know, it's like when they told you, remember when they told you Coin was a success? Like, who was Coin a success for? This is where it went public. Who was this a success for, right? For the private equity guys that that dumped on us. So, same thing's going to happen with SpaceX. And they're going to kill the whole market, and they're going to kill all these names. And then you'll be able to go through them and pick which ones you want. But you got to get that stuff out in the market first. So, uh, what else we got here? Anything else?
That's it. Uh, do I expect it? I don't expect anything. I expect to make decisions predicated upon what I see happening. Right now, I see a bunch of people that are rushing into things that they could have had 100 points or 70 points cheaper on Friday all day long. But today is the day that they have to get in. So, I'm going to just chill out a little a little bit here and let this stuff all settle in and figure it out. All right, guys. I gotta jump.