Transcription
Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we're going to go over five players whose Vegas lines are higher. They are more juicy than your idiot league mates are giving them credit for. And by that, I mean we're going to look at their ADP. And we're going to look at why they should be higher based on what Vegas Lions currently have them on going into the 2026 fantasy season.
Listen, I understand Vegas Lions are not a perfect science here. They are one tool in the tool bag. It is an imperfection. They are a line set to have wages on both sides of the lines to get it even. The lines are very low liquidity. The bookmakers don't necessarily put a ton of time into making these very, very sharp, but I do think it's a nice indicator of where players are going relative to other players at the same position. I do think you could almost use them as like bumpers of how you can be looking at players. So, don't take these as gospel. We're just going to conversate. We're going to talk through them and see what I am seeing through these eyes.
Let's jump in here. And the first player on this list that Vegas has much higher and I have much higher than your idiot league mates is Javvante Williams. All right. Running back for the Dallas Cowboys. Currently ADP of RB17. However, Vegas has him four figures deep in his rushing line at 1,000 yards plus 9 and a half rushing touchdowns. This is feeling like one of the most overthought players in fantasy football this year. A guy that's getting drafted at like the three, four turn sometimes in the fourth round of full PPR leagues, which I'm fine. I think it's a fool's errand to try to predict a running back's like efficiency numbers on targets and receptions on a year-to-year basis. Uh, it's a small sample size. Very little things can kind of dictate whether you're half a yard up or half a yard down from the previous year. Scheme matters a lot and those kind of things.
So, when I look at Javonte Williams, I see very much like Josh Jacobs a few years ago. You have a younger dude who's kind of a bruising back, but you're the clear goal line back, the clear early down back attached to a very high-scoring offense with a very good offensive line. Not, you know, the elite lines of the Zeke Elliot years, but the Dallas Cowboys line is at worst a top 15 line, probably closer to that top 10 to 12 line, especially if some of their offensive linemen like really step up this year. So, Javvante is going to be a guy who is just sitting there within the 10-yard line, within the 5-yard line on an offense that is very high scoring. And the thing that should make us, and why Vegas is probably so excited about him, is the fact that they added nothing to this backfield depth. Like they didn't take a player in the second or third or fourth or in those earlier, like juicy rounds to actually supplement the backfield in terms of depth. They saw what Javvante Williams did last year, gave him 250 carries, averaged nearly five yards per carry, and said, "We're just going to do that again." Like, sure, Jaydon Blue, maybe he's ready to play in the NFL this year, but I don't think that's a given. Like maybe he takes some of those third-down and long snaps, those two- and four-minute drill snaps. That's also not really why you're drafting a dude like Jamonte Williams. It's not a reason why you would be drafting a dude like Josh Jacobs. They are like the perfect RB2 to supplement your backfield because the volume is going to be so high and I think he's getting a little bit of recency bias because he slowed down a little bit by the end of the year and people are kind of remembering that. But the beginning of the year was incredible. If you flip those two, I think we'd be a lot higher on Javante Williams. Overall, like the reason that I like Javvante so much is just attachment to that offense. Rushing touchdowns are a product of a good offense and the lack of depth added to this backfield makes him one of the better picks in fantasy football this year in my opinion based on where he's going right now in drafts.
Next up, we've got Devonte Adams, wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams. Right now, his ADP is wide receiver 25. Vegas has his receiving touchdown line at 9 and a half receiving touchdowns. His odds to lead the league are tied with the top players in the league. So that nine and a half total, it's him, Jamar Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. All three of them are seven to one to lead the league in touchdowns. Doesn't take a genius or a rocket scientist to understand like Davante Adams. Incredible weapon inside the 10-yard line. We saw them expose defenses last year doing this over and over and over and over and over again. Do I think it's a good bet? No. Like it's not something that I would necessarily take, but they're clearly still leaning into this mold here. And his yardage line is not very, very high, especially not relative to Puka. And it doesn't lend itself to saying like, "Oh, Davante could be like the one this year in Los Angeles," where there was a subgroup of people that were in that camp last year, were like, "Oh, Adams could be the one. It's going to hurt Puka." I was not one of those guys. Like, I think Puka is, you know, by far and away the clear one there. But I do think Davante Adams, similar to what I just said with Javvante, they added nothing to that receiver room. They don't have a legit wide receiver three behind Davante and Puka Nacua. And last year when Devonte was running routes, he was getting targeted at an insane basis. He was getting targeted at the seventh highest rate in the NFL last year. So target per route run rate. He was top seven. It was him and Puka were both in the top seven. So when them two were on the field together, it's just them two getting targets. Like, yes, the Rams in specialized areas of the field utilize two tight ends and three tight ends and then running back dump-offs quite often, but those are more special plays. Like when they're on the field and running routes, which is really only going to be Davante and Puka Nacua together, it's going to Davante over and over and over and over again. So, I'm a fan of drafting one of these like veteran wide receivers in the middle rounds, whether it's Davante Adams or Mike Evans or Terry McLaurin a little later. But yeah, I mean, I am high on Devonte Adams. People think he might have fell off. They look at the hamstring injury from last year. They look at the age. I get it. But all else equal, you get a very, very good receiver in a very, very high-scoring offense that's projected to score a ton of touchdowns this year. Stafford, McVey, like come on now.
Player number three on this list. And, uh, just want to say like before we get into player number three, all of these numbers, like Vegas lines and everything, they are available in our membership right now within our rankings. Like everything that we talk about throughout the summer, strength of schedule, Vegas lines, rankings, and everything are available on bdge.co inside the fantasy membership. And the easiest and cheapest way to get it is if you are a new user on MGM, you can go deposit $10 when you sign up. Use code BDGE. Make sure you do that. You got to be a new user. Use code BDGE. $10. Place any slip. As soon as you do so, they're going to in-app message you with a code to use on our website to get the membership absolutely free for the next three months. So, you've got the summer, the draft guide, plus the first month of the actual season itself.
All right, so we've got a bunch of cool new tools coming your way. And one other quick thing I want to throw in on the website when you're signed in as a fantasy member, if you go to the fantasy football dropdown, there's a future videos idea and I basically created like a little Reddit-style forum where you can submit video ideas that you want to see me make throughout the rest of the summer and you can upvote and downvote the ideas that you find the best or most helpful. Um, which is great 'cause I'd love to get more feedback on like what videos you guys want to see me continue to make there.
Okay, player number three is, and it feels like every time I make this video, he is on this list and kind of doesn't disappoint any given year. Uh, that is Jared Goff, the quarterback for the Detroit Lions, of course, quarterback 16 in ADP. His passing yardage line is number one in the NFL. He's above Dak Prescott. He's above Matthew Stafford. He's above Joe Burrow. Like, do I agree? Probably not, but I'm not the one doing this stuff. They are. And, uh, his passing touchdown line is 29 and a half, which is tied for third in the NFL behind only Burrow and Stafford. Now, in terms of fantasy, obviously he is a zero on the ground, but the floor of him is just so high. He's a great quarterback too in Superflex leagues, and that's kind of how he's being drafted right now. So, I think him being at the top of the list for passing yards as his projection is kind of startling. It's obviously not crazy given the consistency that we've seen from this offense, especially in the passing side of things. If you look at the last four years with the Lions, go 4,500, 4600, 4600, 44, 45, 400, around 30 touchdowns if not more on any given year. He's arguably been one of the highest floor and almost ceiling quarterbacks just from a passing statistical perspective over the last four years. Honestly, if these were Joe Burrow's numbers or someone else's numbers, we'd probably be losing our mind year in and year out and they'd be drafted as a top five to top three quarterback in fantasy, it feels like. So once again, we are looking at a phenomenal quarterback 2 in fantasy getting picked at quarterback 16. I get it. He's boring. He's slow. He's a dud on the ground, but he's going to get it done through the air as he always does 'cause he has Amon-Ra St. Brown and he has Jameson Williams and he has Sam LaPorta coming back and he has Jahmyr Gibbs coming out of the backfield. Like, come on now.
Number four on this list is DJ Moore, the wide receiver in Buffalo. Newly added, obviously, to be, you know, the go-to guy for Josh Allen. I don't think a lot of people are excited about him. And his projection per Vegas is 825.5 receiving yardage line, 6 and a half touchdowns, which is good. I mean, when you look at the players around him, he's tied with Marvin Mims. He's right below Ladd McConkey. He's above guys like Luther Burden and Mike Evans, Carnell Tate, Jordan Tyson, who I think have gotten significantly more hype so far this offseason than he has. I think this is a little bit of a product of people just being bored with floor type of players. Like you look at DJ Moore and he's kind of older. He's never really had like a, I guess he did with Justin Fields back in 2023. He did have like a bit of a boom or a ceiling season with him, but I don't think anyone really thinks of DJ Moore as a high ceiling player. And then you look at last year was a disaster in Chicago and it's like, all right, if Ben Johnson can't make you into like a big-time player, but he was also inherited by Ben Johnson, not, you know, grabbed by Ben Johnson like a Luther Burden or Colson Lovelace. He went out of his way to draft those guys and bring them into the mix and be the offensive playmakers there. So, it's a tweener for me. Like when I look at the names, I'm kind of similar to the fantasy community when I, I'm like, I think I just prefer all of those guys over DJ Moore. But again, I think it's good to use them as bumpers where it's like, all right, if this guy is going to go four rounds ahead of DJ Moore, maybe there's a little bit of give and take. Maybe there's a little bit of compensation we can use here where it's like, maybe I do go with another guy and then take DJ Moore three or four rounds later in fantasy drafts because he is attached to Josh Allen. And sure, it does seem like there's a lot of like [ __ ] going on in the receiver room there, whether it's like Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir, maybe Curtis Samuel, whatever, and DJ Moore is like not an exciting guy, but maybe there is a little bit more of a ceiling there. What if DJ Moore does get 125, 130 targets from Josh Allen and Josh Allen's arm? Like, we might be in for a surprise year here. And I think Vegas is kind of saying, could be a possibility.
And last but not least, we have number five on this list, Tyler Shuck, the second-year quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. Shuck's passing yardage line 3600, tied with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, ahead of C.J. Stroud, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, and Bo Nix. Now, this is not like a Jared Goff where it's like, okay, his passing yardage line is pretty strong, but he's not a zero on the ground whatsoever. Last year in his starts, he averaged four and a half carries per game and 18 and a half rushing yards per game to throw on top of that, and he's being drafted currently as the quarterback 19. So when you look at a guy like Jared Goff and you're like, "Okay, he's a very high floor solid Superflex option." I would almost look at Tyler Shuck as a guy who's like, "All right, I'm I think I'm shooting for a more high upside play here." Like maybe risky if you're not sold on Tyler Shuck as a product, as a quarterback, which I don't really have a problem with, but I think a lot of these numbers, and this is something that I've talked about at nauseam this offseason, it's not really a Tyler Shuck number. It is way more a Kellen Moore offense number, right? The plays per game, the pace of play. It's those things being factored into their projections rather than it is, "Oh, Tyler Shuck, yeah, he's going to be a more statistical, higher upside player than a guy like Josh Allen or a guy like Baker Mayfield or those types of guys." This is a product of environment. They have good weapons there all around the offense. They have Kellen Moore running a shitload of plays per game and a shitload of passes per game. You're in the dome. You're on turf. You're going to have a very good schedule in the NFC South, one of the best schedules in the NFL the Saints have this year. And crazy, I was looking at some stats yesterday from weeks 8 through 18. So that was when Tyler Shuck was a full-time starter there. Tyler Shuck led the NFL in fourth quarter passing yards with 931 passing yards. Just in the fourth quarter, he had like 2,300 yards on the season. 931 of them came in the fourth quarter, which was over 39% of his total passing yards. That is like so far above and beyond the other quarterbacks. Like Jared Goff is within 70, but Jared Goff also threw for 4,500 yards where Tyler Shuck threw for 2,300. The percentage of those yards in the fourth quarter was so [ __ ] high, which I look at it a couple ways. I'm like, "Okay, the Saints were bad last year and they had to play catchup." But it also tells me that Kellen Moore wants to throw the ball in crunch time. In garbage time, they're going for it. They're going to be throwing the ball a lot. And that was what a lot of last year was. I just thought it was an interesting stat. You guys can, you know, dissect it and look at it however you want. To me, that stat is less of like a bad team stat and probably more of a bad defense stat because you look at, you know, the Saints, the Lions, Chicago, Arizona, Dallas, like there's a lot of good quarterbacks that were on good overall teams last year. But obviously in the fourth quarter, if your defense is letting up a lot of points, you got to continue to put, you know, the pedal to the metal here. So, I I I think it's interesting that Tyler Shuck, his passing yards are around the other like high volume quarterbacks in terms of passing, but he also brings this ground game that I think can have some real upside. Like he could in an upper percentile outcome this year run for five to seven touchdowns along with like a strong passing season and all of a sudden you have a top 10, a top eight fantasy quarterback this year.
So, those are the five players that I found interesting looking at the lines. And I think it might be worth taking a second look at them in your rankings, in your feelings, however, you know, you're looking at those players from an outlook perspective into 2026. If you want to see exactly how I'm looking at these players in my rankings, again, they are available on bdge.co as a fantasy member. Cheapest way to get them, head to MGM. If you're a new user, use code BDGE. When you sign up, deposit 10, play any slip on there. As soon as you do, they'll hit you with an in-app code to use on our website for three free months.
All right, I'm out of here. I love y'all and I'll see you in a couple days. Smoochies.