Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be talking about what we're going to call now, the bare market resistance band.
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So, as we've talked about before, in a bull market, you like to see Bitcoin respect its bull market support band. We did have a couple of fake outs this cycle, but for the most part, we stayed above it and we reacted positively to it when we tagged that bull market support band. Note that two of the three fake outs below it occurred in the third quarter of the year. Um, and then the other one occurred, of course, occurred, uh, when tariffs were announced.
But when you look at the length of the of the cycle that we just had, you can see that this past cycle lasted 1,062 days. The cycle before that one lasted 1,059 days. And the cycle before that one lasted 1,068 days. So the length of the cycle that I think just ended is basically right around the length of the last two. It's actually right in between them in terms of days from the bottom.
So when you look at a chart like this, I, it's hard to dismiss the fact that, hey, like, we're probably just simply in a bare market. And as I've said before, you trade the market you have, not the market that you want. And that's what I've been saying for a long time. And and I've sort of repeated myself over and over and over again, how altcoins are not a good investment in my opinion, not financial advice, but I just don't think they have been. Um, and I, I don't think they will be in the short term either. And I, I know there's a lot of people calling for for different things and and saying that altcoins will rally and this other stuff, but when you have Bitcoin in a bare market, that's not to say some alts can't go up, but most of them likely will drop.
And one of the things that you have to respect, I think, is when you do get rejected from the bull market support band, um, you have to respect it. And and in this case, it's more of a bare market resistance band. Now, some people might look at this and say, well, you know, could it be doing the same thing that it did previously, where it kind of goes up there and isn't really able to get through on the first attempt? It's possible. But while it's possible, bare markets are normal, and we've had plenty of bare markets for Bitcoin, and a lot of them are in midterm years, 2014, 2018, 2022.
So for me, 2026, right? Where we just see Bitcoin slowly go down, slightly lower lows, slightly lower highs, not as big of a drop as we've seen, um, as a function of time so far when measured from the peak, right? If you look at the ROI after the peak, and you just compare this current potential bare market to the ones of the past, you can see that we've actually been holding up a little bit better as a function of time. But if you look at the number of days since Bitcoin last dropped, say, 50%, it is getting up there, right? And it is setting new records. And my guess is that it's only a matter of time in 2026 before this thing comes back down, as Bitcoin gets that 50% drop from the highs.
And as I've also said, I think one of the ways to look at this is is comparing it to that 2019 style bare market. When you look at when QT ended back then, Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria. Slightly lower lows, slightly lower highs. And back then in 2019, we also saw Bitcoin have a few rallies. It had, it had its initial rally up to the bull market square was in fact rejected. It did get above it on a later attempt, but it still ultimately failed due to the pandemic.
But at, in any case, for the time being, as I've said previously, um, this is the, this has sort of turned into the bare market resistance band until proven otherwise. Right? As I'll cons, as I've said, and I'll continue to say, right, trade the market that you have, not the market that you want. A lot of people would love for Bitcoin to be at a bull market. They love for all season, and they live for all sorts of things. But that's not the market that we have. We have a market where metals are going up. Gold's above 5,000, silver's above 100. We have a shift to harder assets, right? Away from altcoins and towards harder assets. And and as that's happened, Bitcoin has now sort of moved into a bare market.
So my guess is that it's just going to continue this path of slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs going into the summer of 2026. And until proven otherwise, the bull market support band is the bare market resistance band. Now, at some point, will Bitcoin have rallies back up to higher levels? It's possible, but I also think if it were to follow that 2019 style move, one of the main targets that I think Bitcoin will eventually have is a sweep of the prior low. Right? So, if you look at 2019, eventually there was a sweep of that low. Um, it just seems like a very likely outcome for Bitcoin in my opinion that it will eventually come back down here to the low from April of 2025.
If you look at Bitcoin against gold, it's already, right, it's already well below the lows from April of 2025. And really, it's, it's all the way back down to where it was in November of 2023. If you look at Bitcoin against silver, it's basically back at the lows in November of 2022. So this is why you don't want to measure things typically in US dollars, because they're never going to stop printing money, and the purchasing power of the US dollar, as we know, is going to go to zero. So that's why it's better to look at things in a different way. In the same way that I tell, I've told people to measure altcoin valuations in terms of their Bitcoin, uh, valuation, it also can make sense to value things against gold, right? And and one of the things you'll notice is that this cycle, Bitcoin basically just swept the highs, the prior highs against gold, and now it has been heading back down.
Ultimately, I, I do, as I've said before, I do think Bitcoin is in a bare market. And and ultimately, I think we will see it come back down to the lows back in April of 2025. And until proven otherwise, the bull market support band is now the bare market resistance band. Those are my views. I know they're not the best views for people, uh, that want to see Bitcoin go up, but you're not here for me to tell you what you want to hear. You're here for me to tell you what I think. And that's what I think.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the website at benjamincow.com. Or you can also check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.