Transcription
Awesome. So, we're super excited about agent bricks. Um, you know, that's our last big announcement for today. We do have lots of big announcements in data analytics. Uh, you know, there's a whole new uh category of things that we're going to release tomorrow. So, please make sure to show up.
But now, I'm really, really excited uh for the man who needs no introduction. Uh, it's a Wall Street titan and uh one of the absolute most impressive CEOs that I've had the pleasure to meet, running a very large, 300,000-person organization in a very regulated space. Please give a round of applause for Jamie Diamond, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase.
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What a, what a crowd. Thank you so much. Thank you. Wow. My God, it's a big audience and it's filled all the way into the back. So, but they can see us on the cameras in the back. So, thank you for doing this. Super excited to have you here.
I'm thrilled to be here. Thank you, folks. Look forward to this. So, I'm curious. Um, you guys have a whopping $18 billion budget that you spend on IT every year. Uh, I'm, I'm super, super curious. What are the biggest priorities uh with that?
So, well, so JP Morgan Chase, you know, we operate in 100 countries around the world and we have like, you know, 30 or 40 data centers around the world. It, it's constantly upgrading technology, your data centers, your networks, cyber, and of course, the world you guys are in is the F. I've never seen somebody move quite this quickly uh in technology, but in every part of the company. You know, the corporate center does network, cyber, policy, stuff like that. But we have 55,000 programmers. So every part of the company has their own devoted programs, credit card, sales and trading, you know, movement of money, which you guys use some of your product on, uh, at a very detailed level. And then whenever we meet anytime with reviews, we go through what people's technology and AI projects are, you know, to make sure we're trying to do the right job for our clients.
That's awesome. Um, curious, so obviously of that $18 billion, AI has got to be a big priority. Uh, curious, you know, what, what's the, what's the aim? What's the goal? What are the biggest things that you guys want to accomplish with AI and how do you think about it in general?
Yeah, so the, you know, we've always been big data. I mean, my whole life, you know, when you're in our business, you know, for the risk you bear trading, you know, we, we move $10 trillion a day, you know, we buy and sell $3 trillion of securities every day. And in 2012, we first used Palantir. And I remember sitting down with the Palantir people and going through this AI thing saying, holy Christ, this is, this is unbelievable. So, we right after that started our own department. And we're probably one of the few companies. And then in 2014, and maybe seven years ago, we hired a woman called Manuela Veloa who ran machine learning at Carnegie Mellon. We have 200 people in a research group alone that that does that for us. We now spend about $2 billion on on AI. We have something like 600 actual in-use cases. Some are really important, some are more minor. That probably number will probably double next year and maybe triple, you know, just it'll just keep on growing. You know, I just saw the demonstration of the watermelon cucumber thing. We'll have we'll have hundreds of those, you know, and hundreds of agents. And we're just starting to use agents. And we took AI/data out of technology. So, we're probably one of the few companies that said it's too important. And not that, and technology does a great job and obviously they're deep partners and, you know, all of them. Uh, but we put it at the management table. So the woman running AI and data now reports to uh me and our president uh so that we can elevate it and that we spend much more time thinking about what are we doing to accelerate it. Are we doing enough? Are we doing it right? As you know, we test a lot of things. We work a lot of people in the valley. Uh, it, it will change everything. We're not, we don't have our head in the sand. There will be no job, no process, no function, nothing that takes place and won't be affected by it, mostly for the positive. You know, there will be jobish, you know, some job losses. And the other part, which is the, I think the hardest part, is getting your own people. I'm not talking about me or even the tech people, but getting all the people who run these businesses to understand the power of it. So, they're saying, "Hey, if you can do that, I can do this." And so, they come up with intelligent projects to do.
I'm curious, you said this that you took it out of the org. There's so many leaders that are here in the audience and they're in companies and they're trying to, they ask all the time, what's the best way for us to accelerate AI and get the whole organization? Is, is this something you recommend doing it that way, thinking about it that way?
I do. And the problem with when someone, again, I'm not, this is not an insult to anyone in technology, but it's in technology, it's part of a conversation. The person is at every single meeting I have with management teams. It's part of every conversation. And the way to accelerate it, first of all, we have people coming out here all the time, like, all the time, just to stay on top of what you're doing. We have investments in a hundred different companies out here. You know, we're testing and learning. We don't mind failing and things. We test all the clouds and uh, um, but having it there, put this way, every time we meet at every detailed meeting. So, it could be like a, you know, small business credit card. It could be the movement of money, or it could be how we do swipes, or it could be sales and trading FX in Vietnam. We have people saying, "What can I do to do that better?" And I think you probably know, we actually use you guys to do when we move all that money around the world, very often people want it in a certain place and they want it in a certain currency. And this is now being done by AI, Data Bricks systems, I think we call it Brie internally, you know, to deliver the money that you want in the currency you want, you know, at the price you want in a certain place. So, but the hard part is just review it every time. So, there's no meeting we that we have, we don't say, "What are we doing? What are you doing? Do you understand it?" We opened up in, this is internal documents. We have 200,000 people using LLM on our internal data. So, not the, you know, this is not LLMs on the web. And the internal data the companies have probably dwarfs some of the stuff you have on the web. And it's very specific, you know, where you shopped and what you bought and what you did, how you spend your money, where you travel, what restaurants you like to eat at. So, we're allowing people to use that internal. And we're constantly dumping more data into that. So, started think with emails and just, you know, reviewing legal documents and things like that. But now you're going to get more and more data that could be analyzed inside. And eventually, you know, because you know the data warehouse, data lakes you guys do, we can analyze this data, both internal data and external, without leaking the internal, which we can't do. We're just prohibited for a whole bunch of different reasons.
So, yeah, makes sense. How important is this data? Like, can you have, like, is AI and data kind of separated, or you really need, you know, a great foundation? And, you know, we're so fortunate to have you guys as customers, you know?
Yeah, I, the hardest part is the data, which, you know, it isn't the AI. You know, it's not the machine learning, it's not the generative AI. It's getting your people to use it properly, but it's the data. So, you, we have data and not because, you know, we're, we're dumb, but these companies were mergers over tons of mergers over time. So, there's credit card data, there's credit card risk data, there's sales and trading data. There's consumer data, there's auto data, there's tons of FICO and credit score data. I mean, we have, I forgot the number, but it is dwarfs everything. So, getting the data in the form that it could be usable is the hard part. And you guys have cracked a lot of that code because it's in different formats, in different, you know, if some was hardwired in exadata, and some was, you know, in uh, those relation, the relationship databases, and some was completely unstructured, you know, like just conversations that people had or, uh, you know, on call center, something like that. But now we're being be able to access all of them to do a better job.
Yeah. No, I appreciate that. And, you know, I have to say, I'm very, very impressed just seeing how JP Morgan Chase organizes everything. I think it's just you guys invest a lot in getting things right in the foundation. And, you know, that took many, many years. And, you know, the push to the cloud, uh, all of these things have taken many, many years. That's why you can move fast now and reap those benefits. Uh, but I have to say personally also for me, I think also there's you push, uh, you know, top down in your organization as well. And I see that lacking in some other large organizations. There's like lots of bottoms up and lots of different folks that are pushing their own, "We got to do it this way," "No, we got to do it that way," and then there's a stalemate. So, it's super, super impressive to see.
Um, I'm curious if this has something to do with, I mean, you've seen many tech waves uh, you know, in, in, in your career, you know, starting with the mainframe, you know, to the cloud, and now AI. Uh, you know, what have you learned from these tech waves, and is there anything we can apply to this one that's coming now? Are there any similarities or any differences?
Yeah, well, I, if you read history, I'm going way back now. Tech is the thing that changed mankind. You know, we were hunter-gatherers until you had agriculture. Agriculture created cities and specialties. And you know, then you had, you know, electricity and water and, uh, you know, the internet and all these technologies. And then, you know, I don't consider the iPhone an invention because it's really 80 inventions put together in a beautiful piece of thing. How they roll out, they will roll out, they do change the world. They cause so many things you don't understand. I mean, cars created suburbs, you know, and or, you know, shopping malls or, you know, it just rolls through. There's a cosmological a constant. It's always coming. The pace of it is different. The internet was invented. My brother worked at the Fermilab, and I remember visiting him in 1975 or something like that, looking at those little squiggly green screens. That was the ARPANET. And it was these big universities sharing data on experiments they were doing at the Fermilab to Niels Bohr Institute in Denmark or something. So, it, it's coming. It'll all change everything. We've always said, you got to make it part of your life. So, I've always had technology at the table. I've always had them part of the management teams. I've always had our people have to be tech people have to be business literate. They got to understand your problems. Business people have to be tech literate. I don't have to understand how a lithium battery works. I don't have to understand exactly how your super agents work. I have to understand what they can do so I can deploy it. You know, like, uh, you know, it's like the army using the weapons you have or something like that. So, this one is faster. I, I, I mean, this one is faster. It's immediate. Uh, it's moving very quickly. I don't even know what it's going to do that much. I do know my view is, don't spend much time debating it. Don't talk about whether you need large language models or small ones. We use, uh, data AI to hedge our equity books. So, every second, and I'm talking about split seconds when we move money, we're doing things. We're doing 6,000 movements of money in a split second. And you don't have, you can't run an LLM model against that. But you can use much more confined data, which is doing AI in much smaller models. And you just got to get good at it. Don't put your head in the sand. You, I know a lot of companies are worried about, "What are they going to tell their people?" What I tell the people is, "We are going to be the best at AI, large model, small models, this cloud, that cloud." You know, just use technology to do a better job. If you don't, you'll be left behind. There may be winner-take-all in certain categories. I also don't want to be arrogant about it. JP Morgan is ahead of a lot of people. On the other hand, you guys are going to be able to deploy your, you know, as a competitive matter, my competitors will get it from other people, too. And then, you know, people who serve smaller banks, they're going to use your stuff and deliver to them. So, you know, all the competitors will have it. It's not like you'll be the only one with these these weapons. Uh, but maybe, maybe being first matters a lot in terms of having data. So, this is going to be fun. This is going to be hard. This will change a lot. And the other thing about jobs, it is what we learned like in a data in a call center. I thought, oh God, go to credit card call center. You know, people spend a trillion dollars in our credit card, and that will apply data and it'll just change the call. It doesn't work like that. You have to deploy it on a task, at least so far. Yeah. And when you're deploying that task, you can deploy it on another task and, uh, and it, and it works on that task. It will reduce jobs, uh, and make our lives easier. But I tell people, our, you know, we have in operation centers and call centers, you know, 150,000 people, but the turnover is 15 to 20%. So, I look at attrition as being your friend if we know it's going to change and then we can retrain and redeploy people. So, a lot of those people are very talented. They know our client base or they can upskill. So, there are a lot of things you can do that you can take care of your people. We are going to take care of our people, you know. And then, and the other thing about AI, it's going to be used by bad people. We know that. Just so, cars, planes, pharmaceuticals. So, you need some kind of understanding of that. But the thing that scares me the most is on cyber, you know, and I've heard sto literally in the last week or two, you know, we spend almost a billion dollars a year in cyber protection, just in the last week or two about how people are using agents to try to penetrate major companies, you know, and that, that's scary stuff. And so, we have to really make sure we protect ourselves. And there are bad guys already using it. And of course, we're trying to use it to combat them. So, but it's also true with all technology. It's just this one maybe is faster. This, this is faster. And, you know, cyber, the thing about cyber is, I tell people like, when you talk about warfare now, it's here. It's in our computers. It's in our skies. It's in our satellites, in our wireless. I don't think pe, I don't think a lot of Americans realize how bad cyber is, just that as an act of war. I'm not talking about ransomware.
Can I ask about that? Uh, you know, uh, if we're talking about cyber, right, you know, privacy, security, security attacks, you guys are highly regulated, you're a bank, you know, you're extremely important to the whole planet. Uh, what are you doing about, you know, protecting yourself, and is there anything AI can do here to even help, or does it just hurt us?
Yeah, so cyber is the only part of the company where I tell people it's a police state. We, we, we're going to put in rules and you have to follow them, from changing your passcodes to who can access systems to, you know, what you can do when you're outside of our private, private networks to. And then you're right, legally, and we have to deal with regulators in 100 countries, and they'll have different rules and regulations. We have to follow those. Uh, uh, but legally, fundamentally, we can't sell our data. Okay? We have to protect our data. And when data, our data goes out, which sometimes it does, sometimes the cl, the customer can send the data out, we, we still have to protect it a million different ways, from encryption to watermarking to. And, and the other thing is our government, like my regulators are not nearly as protected as we are. And, you know, when they come to do, they all want to do penetration testing us. I mean, they don't know how to do it. And they ask us, "Show us your weak spots." And I say, "Well, I'm going to send you my weak spots and it's going to go into your unsecure database." Which I'm not going to do. So, we, so cyber, everything we do, everything we rolled out, I think we probably use a hundred companies to help us protect cyber, network segmentation, data segmentation, air gapping certain systems. It's everything we can possibly do. We work with the, you know, the, the CIA and the FBI and the NSA as best we can. And I think they're doing a much better job at that. Uh, so, we, we're fully engaged in this one. But this one is, you know, when I deal with people, I tell them, this one is the most important for us, bar none. The other thing about us, and this is true maybe for a lot of your companies out there, we're hooked into 600 exchanges around the world. We're hooked into the Fedwire and we're hooked into the equivalent, you know, wires of central banks in, you know, 60 countries. And if you look at all these endpoints and and exchanges and money movers, they're not all protected, you know, and they don't all have our security. So, we do third-party oversight, but even third-party oversight, it's once a year. Wow. It's not, it's not the same thing. So, you know, we, if we find a weak spot somewhere, we often inform the government before they know what's going on with certain things about certain North Koreans or Chinese, uh, actors out there. This, this one's important that they, you know, our water supply, our communications, our some of the banks, you know, if a bank, if a bank went down, a major bank, you know, and you don't know what the money is, you know, I remember President Obama asked me years ago, "Well, what do I do?" I said, "You have to have a bank holiday." You, you would have no choice and try to recover the data, you know, and we all have backed up data and all the things like that. But if I had to tell you all how many times the failsafe systems didn't work in my life, almost every time. Wow. Because it did, it didn't always anticipate what caused the problem. And maybe AI will help us do a better job of that, but fingers crossed. Uh, I have to say your security team is amazing and it's been amazing partnering, uh, with you. You push us. Uh, you know, it's, uh, you guys are paranoid. I want to brag on one of my guys back here, Larry Finesmith. We have teams that do nothing but look at what you all this stuff you guys are inventing and what you're doing and bringing back to the company. We invest in some of those. Obviously, we want to bank some of those. So, uh, uh, but it, but it keeps us much smarter. Yeah.
So, speaking of, you know, risks, uh, there's so much talk about the race against China in AI and, you know, are we ahead? Are they going to catch up? Can you be ahead? How should we be thinking about it? How do we ensure, is it important that the US has leadership? And if so, how do we do that?
Well, it's a big question. American military leadership, in my view, is critical to the health of the future free and democratic world and has provided this umbrella to, um, to all, all of our allies and all these companies, even though they, we really, and when I travel around the world, we really piss them off, just so you know, but, but they really appreciated that umbrella. Uh, and they're worried about it because, you know, they see all this stuff. So, yes, it's very important. It's, it's a little embarrassing that we as a nation, you can blame businesses, you can blame the military, you can blame the government. I hate crypto milk that we allowed 100% of our penicillin to come from China. You know, all these rare earths that you read about, but there's more than that. And yes, we should be a technological leader. You do not want to give them the, you know, the two nanometer chips, whatever nano chips that can make their supersonic missiles better. Now, I don't, I think if you stop doing that, by the way, it won't be forever. You know, you, you can slow them down, but they put huge effort in when they want to do something, they put 50,000 engineers on it and, you know, all their universities and stuff like that. So, and they don't have to be a lifelong adversary. So, I'm not saying we're at war with China like that, but yes, we should protect ourselves and be very specific about those things that, that, that protect us. And obviously, technology is a big piece of that. Uh, they can get, you know, they get some of the stuff you all do from because people sell to third parties. They're going to get it anyway. They're probably using Data Bricks inside China whether you are, you I don't know if you're on any of those sanction lists or anything like that, but, uh, but this is critical. And I look at it, and then the, our economic relationship. You have to maintain those two things to keep the world free and safe. And those are the two most important things. And we have a recession next year. I don't consider that nearly as important. And so, you know, I think we're doing a lot of the right stuff to, to do that. We should have started years ago. It's unfortunate. But, and for you all in the room, we don't have enough welders to build the boats that we need built. We, we never left. You know, if there was war in the South China Sea, and this is not, this is not national security stuff because they published this. They did a tabletop exercise. We have missiles for seven days. We'll be out of missiles in seven days. Wow. And, and we don't have, you know, most of us have huge backup capabilities. We have everything backed up that we do. No matter what we do and where we do it, but, you know, they would make, I think I think this is right, making the missiles out of a plant. There was no second plant ready to go. So, even if you pushed a button, you're talking about years before you get the second plant. We should not run the military that way. They also, and this has also changed, you know, they have these big programs and the boats and the aircraft carriers and, you know, technology may make, and you see the drone stuff in Ukraine, technology may make, you know, aircraft carriers obsolete, you know, and, and we got to move quickly. So, the military usually has to do contracts that be approved, but if you want to buy the best newest drones, you want to go to Andrew, it was company Voyager, we took public yesterday. You have to allow the military to buy from you, cancel that and buy from you, you know, modify that and like a business would as opposed to it's got to be like a 20-year contract. So, we have a lot to do. We have a thing we're going to do called the Defense Action Forum, kind of laying out all these issues, try to help the government do a better job of them.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Okay, on that topic of, you know, um, you know, the, the sort of arms race that's going on, uh, when you look around the world, the economy, geopolitics, you know, what worries you the most?
Yeah, it's, it's, you know, and I don't, this what I'm about to say is not the ugly American, but America is indispensable. It's not indispensable because we're better. It's indispensable because we have the best military in the world, the most prosperous nation in the world, the best economy in the world, the best technology, the roots of that technology, the freedoms we have, you know, it's what brought people here. And, uh, you Sweden, right? Iranian Swede, right? You know, my grandparents were Greek immigrants who never went to high school. And we have to maintain that. But America's role is indispensable. That role is economic. It's military. It's education. It's allowing people, you know, people that come here want to stay here, like more merit-based, which we should be doing. Uh, that's the most important thing. And if you made a list, how does America stay indispensable? Well, it's basically keeping our domestic economy strong. And here's where we haven't done a particularly good job. And maybe AI will fix. And I, I have a list. I make a list of all these policies we didn't do well. We don't do mortgage policies well. We didn't do immigration policies well. We don't do affordable housing policies well. We didn't do inner-city school education well. We don't teach work skills properly. We didn't do the military properly. Healthcare, you know, I was listening to one of the examples up here. I mean, we spend, the average family now costs $30,000 a year for healthcare. America is spending 18 or 19% of its GDP. We have among the best in the world, you know, and which I'm a beneficiary of, the best hospitals, best doctors, best surgeons, best pharma, best medical devices, and among the worst. People are dying younger. There's too much obesity. We don't teach it in K to 12. It lacks transparency, you know, uh, and we got to get at this. And so, I'm, you know, to me, those, America should make sure that we're, we're strong. And that strength also comes from celebrating our values and our virtues and not insulting them all the time like we're bad. Yes, we did some terrible stuff, particularly the black community in this country. Absolutely. But the values and the virtues are the best the world's ever seen. People come here to be Americans. And, and it's the, the natural thing. Free speech and freedom of enterprise and freedom. You know, when they said the pursuit of happiness, the founding fathers, they meant the pursuit of purpose. They didn't mean happiness, the way we mean happy. They mean you're building something, you're accomplishing something. That purpose could be teaching, it could be building, it could be being an entrepreneur, it could be just being a great parent or something like that. Those values and virtues, you know, we, we've heard, and I like, I always feel if you, you, some of you all played in sports teams, if you have a sports team that's tearing itself apart, it will not win. Yeah, we're kind of doing that, a little bit of that today. So, I think it's, that's keeping the nation's indispensable also means keeping ourselves strong and super inspiring.
Thank you. Thank you. That's super inspiring. You know, it's energetic. Uh, you know, the best way to accomplish change is to make it happen. Uh, if, if required from you three and a half years from now, uh, would you run for president?
All right. How many of you would vote for me? I, I, I get all the rich white people to vote for me, probably. But I am a banker. I'm 69. Uh, I, I always say I would love to be president, but you'd have to anoint me. You know, I've never run for office. I think this is a skill. Now, maybe I can have my, um, my campaign team be one of your agents and tell me what to do, what to say, and where to go. And, but I've never done that. So, I think the answer is no. I, I will do anything to help the country, though.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well, anything to for the country. All right, we'll take that. Okay, so switching back to banking then. Uh, I'm very curious, you know, uh, in fact, I was meeting one of the CEOs of one of the big banks here, uh, you know, just, um, a couple years ago, and he told me like the best, the best thing about our financial system is that the banks are, you know, more robust than they have been ever. It's literally one of the CEOs, one of your, you know, uh, sort of, uh, in one of the big banks. And the next day, SVB basically collapsed. Uh, and then we had the, you know, First Republic and which you guys bought and so on. And you guys are sort of been in the middle of that. You bought, you know, First Republic. You've been advising companies from small, medium to large. Uh, I'm, I'm curious, what are you seeing? What are you recommending when it comes to this, you know, financial sector?
Yeah, so, um, so first, I, we bought WaMu. I don't know if any of you were WaMu clients, but we're now the largest retail bank in California, the largest private bank in California, the largest commercial bank in California. We've built a whole new campus in Palo Alto with, uh, and we're covering now, we're doing a better job because we didn't realize that the bad job. You always have to be honest with yourself. Silicon Valley did a lot of things well, and now we're learning how to do that, move faster. We've had a campus Palo Alto there. We have 500 bankers doing the innovation economy, which I hope includes a lot of people in this room. And then we have our, some of our investment bankers here, you know, doing bigger companies, uh, uh, from the biggest to, to smaller stuff like that. So, huge investment, making a huge investment in San Francisco, because, you know, California is, I mean, it's amazing. What every time I come out here, it kind of blows me away. Had a dinner last night with a bunch of CEOs and, uh, all the things they're doing. So, the financial system is extremely strong. That does, that will never mean that every company is. And, you know, the regulations, which I, I won't bore you with, but what Silicon Valley Bank did and First Republic was irresponsible. I would never have allowed it. And it was basically interest rate exposure, you know, and so we bought First Republic. We hedged all the interest exposure within two days. Wow. You know, and the hard part of a First Republic is, you know, we had to take 10,000 people, literally working on future-looking stuff, and now they have to look on backward. We're looking stuff is consolidating all the systems, HR, finance, tech, databases, you know, customers, legal, uh, you know, all the systems, which is a lot of hard work. We kind of assimilated in a year. We learned a lot from it. We, there are some very good people there. So, you always learn a lot from when you do something like that. But, uh, but the system is sound. I think what they really should do is, and this, you, we, people should always do, take a step back, take a deep breath. You know, we regul, become like whack-a-mole. We have G-SIB and Secar and SLR and Basel 2 and Basel 3 and Basel 4, and it's getting crazy. And, and the worst part to me is what happened with First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank. It didn't have to happen. So, you know, typical, sometimes you overdo things over here, you miss things over here. And I think we can make the system better, safer, stronger, and more flexible. That should be their goal. And, you know, and then they, a lot of what they do has all these unintended consequences, which you all read about. You know, mortgages out of the banking system, private credit, leverage loans, you know, 50% of the, which is fine. I, I'm not, I don't mind competition. Did they intend for that? Like, and I'll give you one bad one. You know, this wouldn't affect you. We've gone from 8,000 public companies to 4,000 over the last 30 years. It should have been 8,000 to 16,000. Going public is expensive, litigious, costly. The reporting requirements are high, cookie-cutter boards, you know, cookie-cutter compensation, cookie-cutter this. So, companies avoid it. And is that the right thing? Because I think you'd have a better system. And Sweden does it. One of the benefits by G being JP Morgan, you can see the world they've created. A small, think of a billion-dollar company, half a billion dollar, that can go public, that people want to invest in, that's got sponsored research with less reporting requirements, less costly SEC type of things. And it's because it's caused a vibrant equity business there. And I think we should go back to doing something like that and just make it easier. If that's the way you need to raise capital, you guys don't have to do that. Some people don't have to. Some need it, and some want to for a whole bunch of different reasons. But, but yeah, I think we just make the system better. And it's a shame, you know, what you don't want, you don't want two banks failed and the whole world, you know, was going hysterical, breathing over this thing. And I could have told you it was going to happen. And I'm not hysterical at all, you know. And, you know, if rates go up, I always tell the death of the regulators, you know, we're prepared for rates going to 8% or something like that, like, or 9%. We'd still be fine, you know, but I, I've always told them, but you wouldn't be fine. You're not prepared for it. And so, I guess it's a risk management thing. We always look at risk management, not guessing the future, but laying out the wide range of possibilities and then studying, can you handle that? And, and in fact, I know our CFO is looking at one of your, I mean, one of your guys thinks we call stress testing to see how he can use some of your, uh, agents to do a better job on certain stress testing. But the, but the Fed has us do one stress test a year. We do 100 a week. I mean, literally, I could care less about their stress tests. Yeah.
So, I, I got to ask you, uh, you know, if you look at the economic outlook right now, um, you know, what, what are you seeing? You know, what's going to happen with rates? What's going to happen with inflation? Uh, you know, I, I have never, and I've gone on Chat4 to 0 and asked this question, by the way. You, so feel free to do it yourself. I mean, no one can answer the question. I do think 20 years from now, 50 years from now, you're going to have a huge cockpit like you have here, huge screens, constantly, constantly monitoring what people are doing, what they're spending, what they're growing in bursts and traveling and weather and constantly adjusting the economy and keep it growing at maximum speed. Today, it's not possible. I mean, what we do today is like bleeding this the patient, you know, little stimulus, raise, raise, cut rates. And it literally is guessing, you know, and I have never seen people pick the inflection points. And, but what I'm worried about, and I, I don't worry, JP will be fine regardless. There are a lot of moving parts today. And there are a lot of, a lot more unknown unknowns, a lot of things that I call them, the tectonic plates are moving. You know, uh, you got these geopolitical situations, you know, Ukraine and Russia, Russia, terrorism against Israel, what's going to happen with Iran. And that's not the only ones. There are other ones out there. You got the cyber issues. You have huge global deficits. Ours is the largest, but it's almost everywhere. And government debt is higher than it's ever been everywhere. Uh, even post-war, for post-World War II. And now you have tariffs. Uh, you know, kind of a fragmentation of the global military economic situation. You know, a lot of C countries are rearming. You know, I think they should, but it's unfortunate. And I'm talking about Japan, Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam. Uh, you're going to have a lot of, uh, European countries. A lot of moving parts, and it's really hard to tell how that all sorts out. You have the tax bill, which may or may not happen. If it happens, there's a lot of stimulus in that bill. It happens in the first couple years. So, the world, if you look at the world, it's kind of, and this is my view, I could be dead wrong, it's kind of complacent. You know, we're kind of, prices are high, you know, and we're kind of been this soft landing now for a long time. And there's a general assumption, which is priced in the market, that it'll continue. And I just, I'm a skeptic, you know, and I've been around long enough to know that those things are hard to predict. Uh, and does it have to get really bad? No. You know, but, but could it? Yeah, it could. So, so many things could go wrong. Uh, hopefully AI is the thing that sort of is deflationary and can automate things and make it better. Yeah.
Um, so, but it won't be deflationary yet. I mean, if you look at like, we're spending $2 billion. We, we actually can on some of the stuff we're doing, we know we're getting benefit of approximately $2 billion in total on cost saves or productivity enhancements or things like that. But, but if you look at the amount of money, like even if you cut, you know, look, the chips are getting faster and cheaper, and there may be optical chips to get better down the road. You know, power, but power costs aren't going down. The cost of land isn't going down. The cost of structures isn't going down. You know, the cost of inferencing is dropping dramatically. And you guys will find a million ways to reduce cost. But my own view is in the next couple years, we're going to be spending a lot more money. You know, like we need more lumber and more cement and more steel and more grids and more, uh, gas plants and maybe one day nuclear plants. And so, it, it will be deflationary, just not quite yet.
Okay. All right. So, we got to rush through this and get to that inflection point faster than I guess. Um, okay. Okay, I know we're out of time, but I, I got to, you know, if I have a great leader, uh, you know, I got to, uh, you know, take the opportunity to ask you, you know, I saw that leaked, uh, recording where you said, you know, people got to get back into the office. They're on their phone. It's disrespectful. And, you know, we, most CEOs, we were like cheering saying, "Yes, finally someone is saying the truth." Uh, I am curious, you know, any, any general leadership advice? How do you get your organization to, you said, you know, in every conversation, AI is at the front, you know, we're thinking about it about everything we're doing. How do you instill that and how do you build this next generation of leaders, and how do you make sure that they're doing the right thing with the challenges that we have with our ADHD and our phones and work from home constant and honest assessment of everything?
So, your own people, most people, I've seen these companies, they don't get their P&Ls right, how they structure it right, about where they make money, okay? To have lost leaders, you know, but companies, we call, you can call them strategic business units or however you call, do you understand what's driving, what's motivating? But the constant assessment is also from the customer standpoint. You're all customers. I need to know what you think, what you like. You know, I go talk to any one of you about if you use Chase, and you might tell me your friend uses HSBC or Chime or Venmo, and they do this better. With constant assessment around the world. I once sent a whole plane load of people in our consumer business to China. This like 12 years ago. They said, "What are we going to China for?" I said, "You'll find out when you get there." And we hooked them up with Ping An, Tencent, AliPay, Alibaba. And it opens your eyes. You have to do it. When management teams are too busy to come to Silicon Valley, you know, they're not going to be learning. They're sitting in their office. They're hearing what they're hearing. They're. So, it's customers, it's assessment, it's talking to regulators. Um, it's a, a deep honesty. And that's analytics, detail, repeat, rinse, full assessment all the time. Then there's you got to have real discipline around that, which is, you know, we have deep, we have real reviews of businesses and, you know, and, and, but, uh, heart and humanity. Meaning, come, people don't like want to work for jerks. You know, and, and when you become a senior person, you know, it's amazing, you don't know that much. You know, I have to call if I want to know about, you know, data lakes, and I have to talk to Larry back here and have him explain it to me. If I want to know about, you know, FX trading in, in Indonesia, I got to call an expert in that. And so, there's a humility around that. But what do they know? How do you know it? They have to be free to speak up. You have to create an environment where people feel treated with trust and respect, and they can contribute to the company to the best of their ability. Whatever. They could be white, they could be black, they could be LGBT. We have special programs for disabled, neurologically disabled, veterans, but they're, and they're very shy people. You have to go out of your way to get the best of the people. And it's amazing when you do, what that does, what it does for a country, you know, a university, a company, um, and you create that environment. You have to, in some ways, I, in a nice way, you should fire the. You know, it only takes a few of them to destroy a meeting, you know, a, and, but I hate to say this, sometimes those include customers. I, I have fired customers because they are so rude to our people, you know, and I tell our people that if I allow that to happen, just think of, think of what you think, and just take your energy and put it to someone who actually wants to, uh, your benefits. And so, so openness, you got to have a little bit of grit. It's hard. You know, these, these jobs are hard. You have to, you know, pro answers to problems are waiting to be found. So, my general reaction when something's going wrong, I get all the people in the room. We work it over and over and over and over. I'm not guessing. And usually the answer is found. Yeah. You know, by just working the problem over and over and, uh, you know, promote people who are open like that, who like to get in the road, who like to, you know, deal with people. Review all, review customer complaints, set up war rooms around them, you know, let young pe, sometimes they'll just let them do it. Just, just go fix it, you know, and it's amazing what people can do. So, it's a wide range of stuff. You know, that return to the office thing, some people, I think I leaked it. I didn't. I was trying to, I answered a question honestly about about how it was being abused, you know, and misused. And, you know, and it's hard to do management by Hollywood squares because I can have a real honest conversation with you. I'm sitting in front of you, but when I have, when I have 12 people in Hollywood squares, and then I didn't realize that people are looking at their their phones while they're doing it, you know, I didn't, the IP. I still look at paper sometimes, but a lot of people have their iPads in there, and your notifications are coming up, your emails are coming up. You're not paying attention. You know, when you're with me, you get 100% of my attention 100% of the time. And I've done the whole pre-read every single time. And, and, and I'm always, you're always learning stuff like that. So, I think you have to have certain disciplines or you lose, you know, and you have it, uh, and you have it. It's like also the management teams have to work. You can't run a company. You can't run any part of a company and think you can retire in place. You know, when Tom Brady or, or Sim, Simone Biles, they, when you talk to them about their discipline and effort, it's, it's not just the game. It's in practice. It's in reviewing the films. It's in, you know, learning new stretches. And, you know, if you want to be a winner in this world, you, you've got to give it your all. And then you can't. There's nothing wrong with you. You shouldn't be the boss anymore.
That's amazing. Super inspirational. Jamie Diamond, thank you so much for. Good luck to all of you.
Applause. Thank you so much. Yeah. Thank you.