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The 4,000 is an important number, you know, whether it breaks or not. Our system doesn't say it breaks. It can break or not break, it depends on what we have to do. Why did it come down? It's already adjusting its base, we've been saying all along that it will come down to 4,000. The number 4,000 is an important number, it shouldn't break, but that doesn't mean it won't break. If you want to buy gold bars, there are no buy signals for gold bars yet. But if you want to play with gold, it means you trade Gold Futures. Currently, it's a short position, around 4,300, in that zone, and waiting to come down to 4070. If it doesn't break within any single day in 5 days, we'll meet at 4,500. That's not a target, these are the levels it broke from, 4396 and 4491. These two points are where gold has a chance to rebound and then come down to 4,000 again. Gold might adjust its base for another year. If you want to buy gold bars and it's hovering around here, fluctuating between 4,500, 4,800, down to 4,000 again, repeating this 3 times, and then you go buy gold bars, you can buy them anytime. You can wait to buy later because the only principle for buying gold bars is to buy when it's adjusting its base, without looking at the price. But if you buy gold bars and look at the price, you should go play Gold Futures instead, you should trade. Follow because we change gold easily. That's just the gurus in Thailand. If it breaks 4,000, it will go down, down to 3. It's the opposite.
"It's 4,200 now, professor."
"Still, 4,000 is a very important number. Whether it breaks or not, our system doesn't say. It can break or not break, it depends on what we have to do. Why did gold come down? It's already adjusting its base, and we've been saying all along that it will come down to 4,000. The number 4,000 is an important number, it shouldn't break, but that doesn't mean it won't break. Our system doesn't have anything to do with numbers at all, unlike others who say, for example, that it will go up to 54,000. We said to sell twice. But the gurus in Thailand, including gold shops and everyone invited to appear, all said it would go to 6,000, and people bought accordingly. Then it came down to 4,000. When it came down to 4,000, some gurus said it would break 4,000, so people sold accordingly and it went up to 4,200. People don't remember. And when it went up to 54,000, the gurus said gold would rise because of the war. Now the gurus have changed. Why are they predicting? Especially the gold shop gurus, why are they predicting? That gold will break 4,000, professor? Because yesterday they listened to the news. The day before, they heard that Trump would attack Iran, that he would bomb Iran. Did he bomb? They thought it would break.
"They're saying again that if there's a war, it will go down further."
"Right? So why did it go up? They said, 'Ah, because he didn't attack anymore.' I implore everyone, ask if Russia-Ukraine is over. The war?
"It's still ongoing."
"They are still fighting, and is anyone talking about it? Does it affect the stock market? Let's go back to Iran and America. Is that over yet? No. But NAC, stocks, some stocks have risen 4, 5, 3 times since March 31st. And now you're still interested in Iran, America, Israel? Are you crazy? Nobody cares anymore. But there are so many war-obsessed gurus in Thailand, especially those in the military or security sectors. But those people are not wrong because they are not talking about the gold market. They speak according to their principles of warfare. But the gurus who are wrong are those who bring it into finance. They bring war into finance, into stocks, into this. You have to consider them completely ignorant because there are 10, 10, 12 things that affect gold. Listing them all is too much. What is the yield? Is it high or low?
"It's around 4.5, 5."
"And will it go to the moon with the oil price? The oil price will go down. How can it go down? They're coming up with a new theory because of inflation, and the Fed will raise interest rates. It's impossible for the Fed to raise interest rates. The inflation you're talking about, you're talking about core CPI, 4-something. That's not the number the Fed uses. The Fed's is still 2.44. Do you understand inflation? May's inflation is a comparison of May this year with May last year, from a base year. But the Fed's inflation is a different number.
"Yes."
"Therefore, if you want to analyze gold, you have to analyze these things. Inflation caused by core CPI has never been a reason for America to raise interest rates. It's not like they will never raise interest rates. Thailand once raised it once, changed the governor of the bank, and then raised interest rates, which ruined the whole country. Because they believed core CPI was a temporary price increase, not hyperinflation. Therefore, no country raises interest rates because of core CPI, unless it lasts so long that it pushes up the price of goods, which people can't afford to buy anyway, so it doesn't happen. Learn these theories, they won't happen. Interest rates will never rise. The important thing is, if we talk about gold, be careful. The Federal Reserve will have a meeting this month, June, and there will be a FOMC.
"It's very easy to play. It's very easy to play. If they want gold to rise, how do they do it? Because the new Fed chairman has said many times that inflation caused by oil is temporary, not permanent. Therefore, it's not a reason for them to announce an interest rate hike. This is clearly stated. But what they will do is just say a little bit, that the chance of oil prices falling. Oil prices have passed their peak and are gradually going to slowly go down to 60 dollars again eventually, according to the oil price chart if you look at it. But it won't be immediate. It might be by the end of the year, whatever. But just the words of the Fed chairman. Because after this, there's the FOMC. Just the FOMC, there's a chance of lowering interest rates next year. Just next year, not quarterly, not even the second quarter of next year. There's a chance of lowering interest rates for this reason and that reason. The FOMC comes up, adding to the possibility of lowering interest rates. That's enough for gold to rise. The way to make gold rise doesn't require lowering interest rates. When they lower them, it's irrelevant. When they speak, it is.
"There are reasons they can speak. The second thing they believe is that if inflation occurs, it can be solved by AI. This is how the production of goods and services in the world doesn't need to be done by humans. It's GDP, it's productivity. What do they say? They say AI automation will produce goods and services for the world until the price of goods comes down. Just saying this, just their belief, is enough for gold to rise. There is no reason for them to raise interest rates. Why don't they raise them? Because it will cause them to lose the election in November. It will affect the voters. They have to delay it until after the election. What we need to consider is what? Netanyahu, who is being provoked, stop it now. Stop it. Because the last time this happened, the atrocity in Iran, it was caused by Netanyahu.
"Yes."
"And Trump, what's he like? A pirate. His cronies are capitalists, so he can't say anything. Even if he's not a Jew, right? His cronies. Even if he's not Israeli, he has a lineage that connects them, right? So, in summary, gold can rise whenever they want it to. But why would they want it to rise when they know that China, in the long run, wants gold as collateral for the Yuan? The Yuan is the currency of the East, if you read the book, it's like that. They will make it go down so China can buy it cheaply. They won't do that. This is the reason why we don't care if gold goes up or down, for whatever reason. Therefore, we are not talking about gold bars. If you want to buy gold bars, there are no buy signals for gold bars yet. But if you want to play with gold, it means you trade Gold Futures.
"Currently, it's a short position, around 4,300 in that zone, and waiting to come down to 4070. If it doesn't break within any single day in 5 days, we'll meet at 4,500. That's not a target, these are the levels it broke from. Do you remember? 4391, 4491, 4396 and 4491. These two points are where gold has a chance to...
"Rebound and then come down to 4,000 again."
"Yes, professor. Share."
"No need to rush to rise. No need to rush to rise.
"Let's look at the chart. Can you see that the important number is 4,000? What is this important number? 4002.69. This number, in the system, doesn't mean it can't break. If it breaks, it means a very long adjustment. And the important break is here, 4491. This is called the next line after it broke. On a weekly basis, it will run up. This means gold is just playing according to technical signals. The occurrence of an over signal in the time frame with large candlesticks before that, sideways, and then one candlestick. Do you remember, guitar, when you studied trading with candlestick signals before that, it was sideways? I'll show you. You can look in new textbooks that are written about using candlesticks for trading. Before that, it was sideways for a while, then it broke down with a candlestick. It will go down. It will go down in the direction of the long candlestick. After that, we look for reversal signals. Here is a reversal. There's a signal going up, and gold will go up according to its system. The first resistance level is 10 days. And the next line it broke from, which we talked about, 4396. The 10-day is around 4,300. So the number I gave you earlier was 4,300. This signal means, why isn't it over yet? The first time frame you see, it's not over yet. It has to finish wave A first. It has to finish wave A in the system. It has to finish wave A. It's coming down to make wave A now, but it's not finished yet. This wave is called wave 4.
"Wave 4."
"Of the monthly time frame, which has 5 waves. And then it will go up. Wave 4 doesn't say where it will go down to, how much it can go down, nothing is said at all. But it's in 4, and there's 5. Some people ask, don't we need 5? There are 5 fingers, there are 5. I don't know if it's the same thing. Why must waves have 5 waves?
"Yes."
"And it's like this every time. It's like asking why you don't have 4 fingers, why do you have 5 fingers? It's probably the same thing. So, in short, what does it say? In short, around here...
"No need to try. It will come down again. This wave will come down. But its descent won't be very much. It doesn't say how much. It says to look at the 15-minute time frame.
"Yes."
"If an over signal occurs, go long and go up. That's it. This is the system. AI can't write it. If AI analyzes it, it won't know.
"Yes."
"Because for analysis, 4 + 1 is 20 pages. We won't give it to anyone.
"You're not giving this away, are you, professor?"
"Not giving it away. It's kilograms. If we give it away, everyone will know, and no one will trade anymore. Everyone will do the same thing. It won't be right. It will be in categories. For all categories to be different, trading will occur. But our system is a system that looks at what others are doing. Therefore, our system doesn't point to prices. Our system says what central banks, who believe in fundamentals, are doing. What is the nature of central banks? They will sell down, buy. What are ETFs doing? Buying ETFs and holding them. There might be some that are being liquidated, and ETFs will come in to buy them up and then sell them off. Then they wait to buy back. This is gold bars.
"Gold Futures have no support or resistance levels. I'm telling you beforehand because they are all force-sold. People who went long on gold at 5,400, down to 4,000, it's not that. If it breaks 5,300, their portfolios are all wiped out. But what has support and resistance levels? It's gold bars. But those who buy gold bars, the large ones, they never sell. Central banks, who sell, some are small central banks that need to sell gold to convert it into currency to pay debts. The period in the past was to pay for oil. This means they didn't have enough foreign currency but had gold, right? Like Turkey, they don't have gold, but they don't have foreign currency, right? So when they need money to buy things from abroad, they have to sell gold. Like this. So who collects it? China. Big countries. They collect it. Why does China buy gold? Because they sell dollars, buy gold, it's simple. Because it can be a reserve currency. Understand it like this.
"Understood. Let's look at the fundamentals. It's simple. What is the yield? How long has it been? Has it been higher for longer? What is high will go higher? How much higher can it go? Not much. Do you remember, guitar, two weeks ago, everyone was complaining that gold was falling because yields went up to 4.5 and then came down? Which yield are you looking at? You're looking at a different yield than the Fed. You have to look at the same one as them because they are the ones who... All of this leads to yields and employment.
"It leads to lowering interest rates, raising interest rates. But raising interest rates can only happen when they lower them to the absolute minimum first. Currently, interest rates cannot be lowered. They can be lowered in two ways: soft landing, as in the past, gradually decreasing. But then they encountered the Trump crisis. Trump, for some reason, got into a dispute with Israel, causing inflation that requires time for oil prices to come down. When oil prices come down, this will be the reason why they can lower interest rates. But if it lingers for too long, what will follow, guitar? If it's higher for longer, this is the middle ground. But if interest rates remain high for a long time, it will cause a bomb, right? A bomb of damage. But this time, the damage will be to retail investors, not to hyper-scalers who own vast assets in the world. So there won't be a collapse. If it collapses, it will collapse the industries affected by rising oil prices.
"Yes."
"This is it. It will cause the economy to go down first.
"It's a sector. These sectors will affect ordinary people. After that, when it collapses, they will gradually lower interest rates, lower them later. They will definitely lower them. But there will be no increase. Trump went silent, didn't he? Trump said the new central bank governor, at his first meeting, must lower interest rates. Trump changed his mind again. How did Trump change his mind? Trump said he would take money.
"$12 billion to buy back bonds. Buying back his own bonds means injecting liquidity because liquidity disappeared due to people putting 300 billion into SpaceX stock subscriptions recently, since Friday. This caused liquidity to disappear temporarily for 4 days until yesterday. Yesterday, they got the money back, so they bought stocks again, and stocks went up again. The money is back. And I will explain liquidity there at SpaceX.
"Yes."
"So, at SpaceX, there's no chance of it going down for a month.
"Oh, then we'll move on to SpaceX. But may I please close the topic of gold and futures first? Because I see the picture from what the system has told you. But with gold bars, professor, is this not the time to buy? And what signal does the system tell us to wait for?
"Reversal signals have not occurred. Gold might adjust its base for the year. If you want to buy gold bars and it's hovering around here, fluctuating between 4,500, 4,800, down to 4,000 again, repeating this 3 times, and then you go buy gold bars, you can buy them anytime. You can wait to buy later because the only principle for buying gold bars is to buy when it's adjusting its base, without looking at the price. No matter how many years it takes, the best way to buy gold bars is to buy them for your children and grandchildren. You don't know what will happen, just buy and keep it. That's all you can do. But if you buy gold bars and look at the price, you should go play Gold Futures. You should trade. Because trading requires looking at prices, but accumulating. If you ask like this, people in the past liked to have leftover money to buy land. Did they go to the land registry and check the price every day? What is the appraised value now? Did they check it all the time? And after 30 years, the price in Bang Na, going half a kilometer into the soi, the price of land in Bang Na, because it's a flood-prone area, right? Bang Bo, Bang something, in that area. Bang Mi, in that area.
"The price of land about 2 kilometers from Bang Na-Trat, the price 20 years ago was the same price as now. The same price. And did they ever check the price? No. You buy the wrong land, and it's wrong. It's the same. Why did they buy? They had no objective. People in the past wanted to keep money in land. Which plot of land? If they had known, they would have bought in Silom, right? This is something I'm explaining. If you buy gold, and you buy gold bars, and you are concerned about the price, you didn't buy it from 19,000, you didn't buy it from 30,000, you didn't buy it from 35,000. If you want to buy it now, you can, but after buying it, if you worry about the price, whether you will make a profit or loss, go trade Gold Futures. It's a different game, a different game. It's like they say, why are VIs holding so much cash now? It's their game. Why do we play the game of speculation? Our game, the game of Go. Why do grandfathers and some VI investors hold so much cash? The game is played differently.
"Yes."
"Why did people buy Jazz today? It's another game. It's a different game. Everyone plays their own game. So, whoever follows their path, goes that way. But in the end, VI used to win in the old system. But now that stocks have all changed, they are tech stocks. So VI has transformed. Grandfather is slowly understanding. He has Google. He has it, you see? But he's not fully brave yet. Guitar, people who bought since the train era, insurance companies, Coca-Cola, all consumer goods in America. And suddenly they're going to buy SpaceX? Impossible. We have to understand them. But their era, they were successful in their era. It's our era that we will succeed like them. Can we do it like Elon Musk? Follow the money.