Transcription
The discussions so far have been by telephone. There hasn't been a sort of face-to-face contact with anyone senior in the Iranian regime. So maybe Pakistan can host those talks and that'll develop into something, um, more substantive.
Look, it's encouraging, I think, that we're at least talking on both sides, well, at least on the American side, about a possible settlement, diplomacy, deescalation. And that's something that all the European leaders, including Keir Starmer, have been calling for over recent days.
Well, President Trump took many by surprise when he posted on Truth Social this morning that the US and Iran have been having good and productive conversations on a complete and total resolution of hostilities. In place of a deadline that he'd set for Iran to halt attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the president announced that the US would not strike Iran's energy plants for 5 days.
Well, Donald Trump spoke to reporters as he boarded Air Force One this afternoon.
So, the discussions took place yesterday. They went into yesterday evening. They want very much to make a deal. We'd like to make a deal, too. We're going to get together today by probably phone because it's very hard to find a country. It's very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we'll at some point very, very soon meet. We're doing a 5-day period. We'll see how that goes. And if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this.
And he was asked, in the event of a deal, who would control the Strait of Hormuz?
Be jointly controlled?
By whom?
Maybe me. Maybe me.
The United States, and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is, whoever the next Ayatollah, and it'll also be a form of a, a very serious form of a regime change. Now, in all fairness, everybody's been killed from the regime.
Well, Iran's foreign ministry issued a statement denying any such talks with Washington. There were reports that Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been negotiating with the speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but he dismissed the stories as fake news, posting on X, "The Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors."
Well, Keir Starmer gave his response when he faced the liaison committee this afternoon. All of our focus and energy has to be in the swift deescalation, but we've got to plan on the basis that it could go on for some time. And that's the way in which we'll plan this afternoon. And since the conflict started, I've been really clear with the team that we mustn't fall into the sort of false comfort of thinking that there will necessarily be a quick and early end to this. We have to plan, uh, on the basis there may not be. Um, in terms of, um, energy has been where a huge amount of focus has been on energy supplies. Uh, I can reassure the committee, uh, that we haven't any meaningful concerns about energy supplies.
Well, just this evening, the defense secretary John Healey said HMS Dragon has now arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean and begins operation and integration into the defense of Cyprus. Let's talk to Sir Mark Lyall Grant, a former national security adviser. Good evening to you, Sir Mark.
Good evening, Carol.
Good to have you with us. What do you make of these conflicting claims? President Trump, um, talking in very optimistic terms about these talks, um, and the Iranians so far flatly denying that they're even taking place.
Yes, I must say, Carol, that the sort of twists and turns of of the story today is is pretty baffling. Um, look, I think it's encouraging that President Trump has delayed for at least five days attacks on the energy sites in Iran, which would have led to a tit-for-tat response obviously, um, against the Gulf States' energy and desalination plants. That's encouraging, and it's encouraging that he's clearly interested and looking for ways of, uh, deescalating this conflict. But on the other hand, there's obviously mixed messages coming out because the Iranians are claiming that actually there aren't any talks and and the person with whom Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are supposed to be talking, the speaker of the assembly, Mohammad Ghalibaf, is claiming that he hasn't been involved and it's all fake news. And of course, Israel has said, um, "We continue. The war goes on." And of course, what we've seen is the strikes haven't stopped in either direction, um, over the last 12 hours. So positive signs, and we saw an immediate positive impact of the stock markets of, uh, borrowing prices, um, of oil prices. Um, so it just shows how sensitive the sort of economic response is to every word that President Trump says. But I think it's too soon to draw a conclusion that we're moving towards the end of this conflict.
Yeah. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, has said the US president believes there is an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements of the joint US-Israel operation. Um, but we've had that statement, um, from, uh, the Iranian speaker saying that this was all, any of this reports of negotiations are just fake news to try and manipulate the oil market. I mean, do you think it's possible that President Trump is basically talking up some very, very tentative contacts, uh, between the two sides in order to try and calm the markets and and and prevent a bigger crisis?
Well, it's, it's certainly possible, Carol. I mean, he's used that tactic before and it has had the positive impact on the markets that he no doubt wanted it to. Um, on the other hand, it wouldn't be surprising if the Iranians were denying talks that in fact were happening behind the scenes. So, I think there probably is some form of contact. But who that is with and whether that is a viable channel to bind the IRGC and and prevent Iran from continuing to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, I think is an open question at this stage. And we're a very long way from the sort of comprehensive, uh, complete cessation of hostilities and resolving all the problems that President Trump was talking about because they've got to look at the nuclear issue. They've got to look at the ballistic missiles, the malign influence in the region of Iran, the Strait of Hormuz. So we're, I think we're still a long way away from the end of the conflict. And if Israel and, uh, for that matter, Iran are continuing their exchange of of missiles and so on tonight, I mean, could that potentially just undermine this process even, even before it has developed? And there are also reports tonight of Steve Witkoff, um, heading to Pakistan, which is thought to have been acting as a, as a, a mediator.
Yes, there have been talks that Islamabad will be the site of some direct talks between the two because, as President Trump sort of admitted actually, the the discussions so far have been by telephone. There hasn't been a sort of face-to-face contact with anyone senior in the Iranian regime. So maybe Pakistan can host host those talks and that'll develop into something, um, more substantive. Look, it's encouraging, I think, that we're at least talking on both sides, well, at least on the American side, about a possible settlement, diplomacy, deescalation. That's something that all the European leaders, including Keir Starmer, have been calling for over recent days. And I think President Trump has stepped back from the brink because he realized that had he gone ahead with his threat tonight to attack the energy sites across Iran, that would have been a major escalation of this conflict. Um, the outcome, the consequences of which are very uncertain.
What about Britain's response? Um, Keir Starmer was questioned about that today. Um, we've got HMS Dragon finally arriving in the region. Do you think that the US was slow, or or as the prime minister faced questions, too complacent in its response to this? I I know, of course, Keir Starmer has made the point of saying we're not involved in the war, but everyone had seen the buildup before the war began. Um, everyone must have known that British, um, bases in the region, particularly that one in Cyprus, would have been, um, potential targets. Do you think that Britain was far too slow, or or just took their eye off the ball in in preparing for the potential threat which has since materialized?
Well, it doesn't look good, Carol. Uh, clearly, but, um, I think there are some mitigating factors. I mean, there has been underinvestment obviously in defense. Um, our navy is fairly, sort of, hollowed out. Um, we didn't have ships in the in the region, and I don't think at the end of the day, uh, there was a widespread belief in the British government that President Trump would go ahead with this attack, uh, on Iran. And indeed, I'm not sure that the Americans planned it quite in this timescale. It does look as though they were sort of pushed into it by Israel, who of course has long been looking for an opportunity to take on both, uh, Iran and Hezbollah in in Lebanon. So I think there are some mitigating factors, um, and the government has been scrambling to catch up. It's good that HMS Dragon is now in the Eastern Mediterranean. There have been reinforcements on the air side and the air defense side to our Gulf allies. So I think Britain has sort of caught up, and it looks from the conversation that Keir Starmer had with Donald Trump on Saturday night that they are beginning to talk in a more constructive and positive way than the sort of barbed, um, accusations that we've been hearing from the White House, um, over the last week.
What about our own vulnerability? We saw, uh, those, um, missiles fired at Diego Garcia, and it appeared that that, um, indicated that Britain, and indeed Europe, could be in range. That's what the Israelis were saying. Um, do you think that we should take seriously the prospect that Iran could actually fire some of its longer-range missiles at the UK?
I, of course, there is that sort of possibility. Um, but Israel is talking up that threat, of course, because they want the Europeans to come in on on the side of the Americans and the Israelis on this. Um, I don't think there's any hard evidence that Iran really has the long-range missile capability with any substantial payload to, um, reach British cities. Um, so no, I don't think that is the biggest threat from, uh, Iran that we face. I think a much bigger threat is the threat of, of terrorism, um, of cyber, of espionage, you know.
Well, just on that, uh, just on that, in recent days, and that is a serious threat.
Yeah. Sorry to interrupt you. I was going to just ask you about that attack that we saw in Golders Green on a Jewish ambulance service. It's being treated, um, as an anti-semitic hate crime, but though there has been a claim that's so far not been verified from a group with links to Iran, do you think we should see that as the sort of much more likely threat that there is to to British people and British society?
Yes, absolutely. We know that Iran has been behind or has supported at least, sort of, 20, um, plots against the United Kingdom over the last couple of years. We've seen just in recent days a couple trying to access Faslane, the submarine base, um, in Scotland. We've had two Iranian, uh, nationals, um, charged with casing the joint, if you like, of Jewish synagogues in London. And now we've got this latest vandalism of attack on on the ambulances of the Jewish community in North London. Now, we don't know whether this last one is connected with Iran, but that is the sort of response I think we must expect, um, given what has happened in in in the Gulf. So I think myself that that is a much bigger threat to British security than the idea that a missile is suddenly going to land on London.
So Mark Lyall Grant, former national security adviser. Really good to speak to you this evening. Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you, Carol.