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102

مصطفى زهير17:40

Transcription

Hello everyone. Before I begin, you know, speaking, I'd like to, you know, apologize for my voice, right? I'm kind of feeling under the weather a bit and I believe it's the sudden climate change that I've had. But yes, that's all in pertaining to that.

So yes, everyone, this week you can see that we had little to no high probability price action, right? Little to no high probability price action. Of course, all if not most of all the moves that took place this week was a effect of sequential SMT, right? And as you guys know, sequential SMT occurs between either the doubling doubling of price, you know, when I say doubling of price, I mean between January, February, and, you know, so on, right? And between the quarters of the cycles that you're looking at, right? So yes, so Monday, no news. Tuesday, no news. Wednesday, no news. And Thursday, we did say that we could expect Thursday to form the low week for some assets. And if not Thursday, what would it be? It would be Wednesday, right? And so if you have sequence of SMT between Wednesday and Thursday, then you would expect what to happen? Friday to, you know, continue in the direction whereas, you know, price is supposed to go based off of the sequential SMT.

So here, and I hope that you guys are hearing me clearly this time. So yes, now we're looking at the US dollar index, right? This is the US dollar index. As you guys can see, price has been, you know, going in our anticipated direction. And it's pretty obvious where we have the next strong liquidity. As we've mentioned before, these highs, this high, and this high high, right? This one as well, right? That's the utmost strong liquidity for the US dollar index, right?

At the moment, you'll see that we have the futures markets, you know, specifically talking about the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Dow, right? They're basically doing the opposite of what the dollar index is doing at the moment, right? And things like this, these type of price action, right? This is normal during this time, right? At this time, it may seem that you may not be able to find your footing footing in the marketplace. It may seem like it's just difficult to navigate price action, and it should be, right?

If you check, you know, the last elections, you know, the always the month before you have US election, which usually occur around the 5th of November, the month before, for the entire month, price is always low probability. If it expands like how we have this expansion here, there there is no pullbacks. Price just expands, and you don't get a, you know, way to enter. Whereas here, you can see that when price was expanding downside, dropping, price returned to this fair value gap, then it dropped. It returned to this fair value fear of fat gap again, and it dropped, right? Even here, you can see price returned, filap, dropped. Here again, price run above this high, dropped. And here, before price did this, which we did see beforehand as well, price dropped within this fair value gap, right? Within this balance price range, and rallied higher. Here, same thing happened. Price drop, took this low out, dropped within this gap. But as we get closer to the US elections, you can see the type of price action that we begun to have, right? So it's very evident in price action. And whenever the US dollar index is showing low probability price action, which is, you know, predictable, right? As you know, I have been talking about this for, you know, like two months now, talking about this exact time. When I say this exact time, I mean, you know, the weeks, the last four weeks, of course, going to be four, the last four weeks before you have the whistle elections, right? So, it will always be like this. So, the next time, you know, there's elections again, you'll know what to look for. You'll know what to expect, right? It's very clear. You look at a chart, you'll see all of this price action, right?

Since the year start, it was not, you know, bad. This was not bad. This was not bad at all. All of this was high probability right here, right? Which we all talked about. But once we become getting closer, you know, then we saw here, price drop within this red gap, trade here, failed to break above this side, fell, then we had some high probability price action occur here. But then once we go here, you see what happens. And here, my friends, is as I've, you know, highlighted before, I just haven't shown you guys the monthly chart. All right. So this is the direction that we are looking to see, you know, price go in, and it's just based off of this pattern right here, sequential SMT, right? As you guys already know, right? So, here, failure swing. So, what does that mean? We expect price to gravitate to this high based off of the concept that we use, right? Before the formation of 95% of this candle, right? We anticipated price to move upwards. And as you guys can see, this is a monthly time frame. So this is a lot of movement, right?

Looking at the euro, you guys can see that we held aggressively, right? And still, I believe that we still have some, you know, a further way to go for the British pound due to the fact that the British pound took this high, right? Which is what? Which is where this move originated from. Due to the fact that British brand took this high, and these did not, you know, take their respective liquidity pools, this is why, right? We have price not falling as much as these, right? So yes, in the future, we could get, you know, another sequential MMT just based off of this, right? If you see, you know, Euro take a low, and, you know, the dollar index, you know, is prone to take this high. As long as this fails to take a low, then a low, a low, which would consider allow us to consider this as sequential. Then so long as there's this empty, we can expect reversal again, right?

So yes, you guys can see that during this year, right? Well, during the last two years, we have been consolidating, right? We've just been in consolidation. And whenever you see something like this happens, right? And it goes the other way as well. Once you see price expanding, there's clean price action, right? Here we have clean price action. Here we had clean price action as well, right? Then now what do we have? Choppy price press action, right? Once you see this happen, right? Then you know that the upcoming years after this, you know, US election, we will have a lot of movement, right? So definitely for the last two years, right? Well, one and a half year to be exact. You can see what you've been trading. This wasn't this, this does, does, does this look like high probability? No, it doesn't. We've just, we have just been rangebound, right? So anyone of you guys that survive this, right? Burst yourself for the opportunities that will come. All right? It's about to get easy cuz what it has been hard, and you have been learning while it has been hard, right? To see expansion out of, you know, consolidation, you already know what to look for this, right? Here again, sequential MT, which is right there, and it's just as simple as that. Also, I've said before that the higher the cycle time frame cycle that you find the sequence empty, or the se, the higher the the cycle that it occurs, the higher the probability of price following that sequence.

So yes, here you can see we have the E-mini S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow, right? So here we have the S&P 500 trade in this fair value gap. There's no fair value gap here. That's a correlation already, right? Here we have price, you know, getting closer to the open of the week, right? And yes, it's Thursday. So we can expect price to run above this high. This is Wednesday. No, this is Wednesday. So not Wednesday. My bad. This is the weekly time frame. The W here confused me for a second. I don't know why. Right. So this is the weekly time frame. So here it looks like, you know, nothing, which it, in my opinion, it is nothing, right? When we talk about high probability weeks, when we talk where we talk about volatility, we like to see price action like this, right? Here we had where we had this position swing point, price fell. We had another position swing point here. Price dropped within, and just continued higher, right? But now you guys can see, and it's evident even here, and this is also consolidation, right? This is vertical consolidation, right? Only this type of price action would not be considered as consolidation, right? But this is, right? Where we have price moving, you know, in the same direction, in the just the same direction, within the same range. But here we have it, you know, occurring diagonally. So yes, this high would be a drawn liquidity, and this high would be a drawn liquidity, right? And these are the main assets that we use, or main assets that we trade, right? The Dow is just, you know, basically just a tool, you know, to help us to gauge reversals.

Here again, we have the index features tried, right? So here you can see that we had sequential SMT, which occurred today. So by default, we expect higher prices, right? At a Dow, for the Dow, we expect higher prices. Here, the Dow will more than likely not break. If it does break above this high, and this does, then that would be sequential SMT, and we would see price coming lower. Or if it, if it breaks it, or if it breaks this high, and, you know, for some reason, one of these lag, which I highly doubt would happen. I believe that the this will be the one not to break the high if one decides not to do so, right? So yes, to draw liquidity here, you see, you can see these lines right here. For the E-mini NASDAQ, it's this high, these highs, first, it's high here, also here. We have this precision swing point right here, right? And you already know how we approach our precision swing points, right? The main ones to consider would be the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. There are times when, you know, price could, you know, trade almost the low of position point, you know, pertain to the Dow, or even trade below it sometimes, then, you know, rally, whereas times these will hold firm, right? So draw clearly for the S&P 500 here, it's here, it's very obvious, right? Here, in my opinion, right? But at the same time, nothing is, you know, very is is sure. We're just using the concepts that, you know, we understand. We're just using the concept concepts that, you know, we always use. They're just following the rules, and whatever happens happens, right? But yes, this is high probability in my opinion. These highs right here, right?

We don't have any news tomorrow, but as we always, as we know, Friday usually returns back within the weekly range, right? And tomorrow is Friday. So, we could look for that to happen, or we would have to wait until next week if that just decides not to happen for some reason. We don't have any news, so it's a possibility. So yes, sequence empty, expect swing point, draw liquidity here, first take profit here. And here we have the 15-minute time frame for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, right? So again, right? You guys can see this is not the clearest price action, right? That you there will ever be, or that, or that there has ever been, right? Anyways, here we have this new week opening gap. If you see, right? If you're, or if you're a person that, you know, you're you're afraid of, you know, trading without extra confirmation, right? If price breaks about here, right? And if it forms a gap right here. So it could do whatever it wants to do here, right? Within this area of price action. But once it breaks above here, and you know, you have sequential safety, or a precision swing point, or a precision candle, right? Cuz the higher time frame premise is already pointing higher, right? And the fact that price failed to break to trade within this gap. And here we have price trading into this wick, which is the highest wick, which, and, you know, that wicks are gaps, right? Also, price is in close proximity to this high, and there was no sequential empty, or in term of the sequential empty that would indicate that price would go lower. We can expect this high to be ranted. So if we see price, for example, where is it? If we see this occur, if your value gap just occur here, right? And then price falls within that valley gap while being overlap with this cubic opening gap, that would be an entry point to go higher. So this is pretty straightforward, and you would like to see this happen, and, you know, respect your rules, which the main rule would be, make sure that you buy below a true open, or make sure that, you know, price has ran below the true open already, right? And it's just continuing higher, right? So here, this would be what? This would be the Asian session, right? So you could watch the Asian session. And if you see question T between, you know, the assets, then you will know that the low of the day is already in.

I hope that you found this insightful, and we will be back next week Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. If not six, if not Monday, it it will be Sunday. Depends on the, you know, the news. They can they can change them like, you know, over the weekend. So I will let you guys know, right? Hope that you found this insightful. Please, you know, study this and watch to see what price gives us. A wonderful.