Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and just discuss how this crash is continuing. There really hasn't been a bounce yet. We'll look back at prior cycles to get some understanding of what's going on.
So, if you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Give the video a thumbs up and also check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. As I said previously, if you want 50% off your first month of ITC Premium, you can use the coupon code ITC50 at checkout, or you can check the link in the description below or the pinned comment. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, if you're new here, we've generally been on the side of this is a bare market, and we've been saying it's a bare market for a while now. The general idea that I think makes the most amount of sense to best understand this market is to just simply say that that was the top in October, and that the top occurred when it always occurs: the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. Same thing as always. And that really, after Bitcoin breaks below the 50-week moving average, it then goes to the 100-week moving average, and then to the 200-week moving average. And then you can see that was 2014. If you look at 2018, it goes below the 50, then below the 100, and then to the 200. And then if you look at 2022, same thing, right? Even a little bit worse. Below the 50, to the 100, and then to the 200. We actually went a little bit below the 200, but you can see that the general idea played out, right? 50, 100, 100, 200, and so on and so forth, every single cycle.
And then this cycle, what we've talked about is we broke below the 50. When you break below the 50, that was final confirmation that the bare market was here. That was final confirmation. You didn't need to wait. I know there's some people that are like, "Oh, no, you got to wait until it breaks down, you know, below all these random levels." But the problem that I have with all that is that if you wait until that time, like, I mean, the bare market's halfway over, you know? I mean, like it just... And what happens is if you, if it takes you a long time to even recognize that the bare market is here, then you end up selling a lot closer to the bottom than you think, and then it takes you a longer time to get on board with the next bull market. Whereas, if you got, if you kind of recognized, if you saw the writing on the wall in Q4 of 2025, you've already been on the right side of the market for several months, and your biggest problem you're facing right now is just figuring out, like, okay, when do you start deploying, you know?
Um, but I do believe Bitcoin will find itself at that 200-week moving average, right? Like, I really do. Could there be a rally, right? Everyone wants to know, could there be a rally? At any point in a bare market, you can always have a rally, right? So, let's do away with the thinking like you can always have one. And in fact, a lot of times in bare markets, you have the biggest rallies in terms of like how quickly they move. Um, they don't always... I mean, they don't lead to higher highs, but like just how quickly they can just sort of like the rip-your-face-off type rallies. But I wanted to go through an exercise with you guys. And the exercise is this: after Bitcoin breaks below, say, the 50-week moving average, how long historically has it taken to get to the 200-week moving average? And then we'll do it with the 100, but let's go for the first for the 50. So, first weekly close in 2014 below the 50, it took 22 weeks to get to the 200-week moving average. 22 weeks. Now look at 2018. The first weekly close below the 50-week moving average, it took 29 weeks. Right? Now, let's go to 2022. First weekly close below it, 26 weeks. Do you see a pattern? So, you have 22, 29, 26. Let's just write those out, right? 22, 26, 29. That's how long it took to go from the 50-week to the 200-week.
Now, let's see where we are now, right? Because that could give us some idea as to, you know, what's really going on. So, we closed below the 50. First week was the week of November 10th. That was final confirmation of the bare market. That was final confirmation. The initial ideas that we talked about back in October, the rationale for why October could in fact be the top was mostly due down to just cycle timing, right? Like the ROI from the low and just seeing that like every single cycle peaks around the same time, right? Like they all peak around the same time. If you, if you take this out to the lows, you can see how every single cycle the top occurred basically within a couple of weeks of each other.
And one of the hard parts about this is that a lot of times this sort of analysis is dismissed in favor of more macro guru analysis. And I've had issues with that on Twitter where I will post sort of macro analysis. I'll post my interpretation of macro indicators, and then people write it off as like not really using the macro. But the problem is that I used the macro to understand that we were not having an alt season for the last four to five years. Whereas a lot of people use the macro to say we were having an alt season for the last four to five years. So you can't really dismiss someone as not using the macro just because they're not using the macro to justify an alt season, right? I would even say that if you used the macro for the last four years and spent every year calling for an alt season, then you were not really using the macro, right? You're just a permabull on a really risky asset class and pretending like it's a macro thing. But the macro has been completely unfavorable for altcoins for years, right? For years, it has not looked good.
So, I want people to recognize that like, just because you go around saying that like, you know, you're a macro person, because I got tons of people coming after me right now, right? Because I dare question the idea that Bitcoin is not in a super cycle, right? You can put macro on your name all you want, but I mean, if you use the macro to call for alt season for three years, I mean, you clearly missed something. You clearly missed something. Uh, so why dismiss it? Like, why dismiss it? And so what I think makes sense in this case is to say, well, you know, Bitcoin always tops around this time. That's why October made some sense. It made some sense.
Now, since October, Bitcoin is down 44%. And we're going to get to this, by the way, in a... We're going to get to the whole 50 weeks, 200 week, but let's just do it now before I forget, 'cause I know some of you guys are getting antsy. Um, so where are we now? So, right now we're on week 12. So, we are way ahead of schedule in terms of how long it normally takes to get down there. We're currently only on week 12. You know, normally it takes twice as long to get to the 200-week after going below the 50-week. So, either we get a counter-trend rally that lasts a couple of months and makes all the sort of the permabulls lean into it, makes them feel like they're right again, and call for the super cycle, only for it to be a macro lower high, and then we get down there sometime a few weeks later.
But if you look at it a slightly different way, if you look at it as the 100-week to the 200-week moving average, if you do that, what do you'll notice? So, go from the 100 to the 200. Closing below the 100 in 2018, it took four weeks. Okay. In 2014, first weekly close below it, right here, we can go... we got back above it, but we didn't know. Like, we have to say first weekly close below. We're not going to be like, pretend like we knew exactly when, right? Just say from there. So that was 15 weeks. So, 15 weeks, four weeks, and then this one was six. So, you have four, six, 15. We are currently on two, right? Two. So, for this one, we're on two. And then for the other one, going back all the way over here, we're on 12. Okay. So, we are kind of melting down quicker than normal.
But what's interesting is if you actually look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and you average out the prior midterm years, I mean, what else is there to say, right? I mean, like, it's doing the same thing it always does. And, you know, everyone's out here spinning their wheels trying to figure out how to make it a super cycle. But what if, what if it's just doing what it always does, right? And in, and actually in 2020, or sorry, 2026, if you compare it to 2014, it looks kind of similar, right? Like it pops up early on and then it just gets a drastic sell-off before getting that counter-trend rally back up. What if this low here, what if that is the 200-week moving average and then it bounces off that and then goes lower? Yeah, I mean, it could. I'm not saying it has to bottom at the 200-week moving average. I mean, hell, last cycle it went below the 200-week moving average, right? It went to like below the 300-week moving average. So, I, I think it makes sense to, you know, I'm not saying completely dismiss the bull case. I'm just saying like, why dismiss the bear case? That's what I'd like to say. Like, you know, to everyone out there, to all the permabulls that keep calling me out because, you know, they're upset about this. Why dismiss it? I mean, is it because the macro looks good? I mean, what about the macro? You know, I mean, we can look at the ISM if you want, but what about other things, right? Like, what about the unemployment rate? I mean, like that's been trending higher. Is that, is that part of the macro that looks good? No. What about job openings? That macro looks pretty bad, right? Like there's really low job openings. Look at hires. That's really low, right? It's really low. So, it's easy to cherry-pick a single indicator like the ISM, which is what half a dozen, a dozen people are doing. Well, really like two dozen. It's really easy to cherry-pick something like that and say this is the reason why alt season is going to happen and anyone who ignores it does not understand the macro. But what about all the other macro indicators, right? Like, what about everything else? Does that not matter anymore? I think it does.
And, and what I find, what I find challenging, what I find difficult to deal with is when I've been wrong about things. Like, I've been wrong about things a lot in the past, you know? And usually, what I do when I'm wrong about things, I've done some different things. Like, one of the things I'll do is I will, I'll bring a lot of people onto my channel and I'll interview people. You guys have seen me do that before, right? Where I'll, like, I'll bring a lot of people onto the channel and I'll go through like a spurt for a couple of weeks and I'll just interview a lot of different people and get their opinions on the market. Why do I do that? You know, a lot of times why I do that, it's because when I feel like I'm missing something and I'm like, I'm wrong about something and I want to understand why I'm wrong about it. And so then I elect to bring on people that I respect and be like, "All right, maybe if I hear, if I see what they're seeing, I can understand why I'm wrong." And usually, if I'm wrong, I kind of like sink back and try to get out of the spotlight for a while. I will say I'm wrong, right? Back in 2023, you know, I famously thought that Bitcoin would not go above 35K for that year. I thought it would take until the next year to break out. And I was wrong. And when I was wrong, I came out and I said I was wrong, right? I made a video, I tweeted out I was wrong, and I pivoted, you know, and the rest is history. And then I, you know, I brought people on the channel to try to figure out what was going on.
But what's interesting right now is that like, I feel like over on this channel, we've been on the right side of the market. And everyone who's getting everything wrong and calling for alt season and calling for a super cycle, they feel more confident than ever that they're right. And they're using, they're sort of using breaking below this as the justification for why everything's about to change. Now, listen, I understand the Google pattern. I understand the Nvidia pattern. I'm one of the first people who even talked about them a long time ago, right? But Bitcoin's not Nvidia, right? Like Bitcoin is not Google. They're not the same thing. Bitcoin does not trade like them. It never really has. And the thing I saw last cycle is this: imagine you're looking at last cycle. You have the same setup as this cycle. You're looking at it and you're like, "Well, Bitcoin goes below the low." And you're like, "Why hasn't it rallied?" It eventually dropped 11% below the low and then it rallied back up to a very lousy lower high. What do you, what is that? You know, what is that? And from the low, even though it did have a rally for a couple of weeks, which we very well might, I kind of hope we do, to be completely honest. I mean, give the macro guys a break. But Bitcoin then dropped 46% from that level, from that low. So obviously the cycle is a little bit different in the sense that it topped on apathy rather than euphoria. But how can we dismiss it? How can we, we can't dismiss it. Like, one of the biggest cases that people have for dismissing it is they didn't sell in Q4, therefore it can't be the top, right? They didn't sell, so who, it can't be. Or their altcoin didn't rally, so it can't be the top. That's not a reason, right? Like, it's not a reason. Just because you didn't sell is not a reason the top can't be in. Just because your altcoin didn't rally is not a reason that the top can't be in.
The reality is, if you go look at a lot of these altcoins, like, and I'm look, guys, I don't typically talk about any specific alt. As I say, I don't talk about your alt, but the reality is a lot of these alts are just basically back at their lows from 2022. Look at Chainlink. Look at Litecoin. I mean, what do you do with these charts? How do you, if you've bulled on these charts for four years, how do you justify it, right? Like, everyone's just rounding everything. Look at Avalanche, you know? I mean, everyone's just rounding it all. Look at Uniswap. What, what do you say? XRP is holding up a little bit better. It's not nearly, it's not down there yet. Cardano, what do you say? Right. I mean, it's down at the lows. Solana's not down there, but it's heading down. Doge heading down there, too. So, the thing is, right, if again, if you, if you fall in the altcoin camp and you're an influencer who's been promoting them, I understand why they go after me. It's because they sold a get-rich-quick scheme to everyone and it's not working out. And so the best thing you can do is just go after the people that are calling you out on it.
So guys, I, I wish, I wish we were in a different market. This isn't fun for me either. Would I prefer a massive bull market? Absolutely, right? Bring it on. But that's not where we are, right? It's not where we are right now. You got to respect the cycle, right? Like, you know, just calling out the macro in some random... I mean, look, if you like the ISM, go buy manufacturing stocks, you know? Why use, why use the ISM to say why crypto is bullish? And I sort of rebutted on Twitter that look, I mean, in 2014, the ISM went, sorry, the ISM in 2014 went up, Bitcoin went down. They don't like that. Guess what? In 2019, the ISM went down, Bitcoin went up. You can see it right here. 2019, Bitcoin went up. ISM going down. 2014, Bitcoin was going down. Back over here, Bitcoin was going down. ISM was generally trending up. It's easy. Every year, people don't like it. People, a lot of people prefer a lie over an inconvenient truth. It's very easy every year to find a reason to find a narrative to support why illiquid altcoins have to rally. But listen, the thing all these guys are missing is they're not tracking the social interest at all. Because every single alt season in the history of crypto has always occurred after social interest has been trending up for a year, and social interest has been trending down for five years. You can see that the alt season in 2017 and 2021, it was after the social interest was trending up. So if you think about it, like, if you, if you just logically think about it, who are they selling the altcoins to? No one's here to buy them. That's the uncomfortable reality. We can talk about liquidity. We can talk about M2. We can talk about all that stuff. But if the bid for that part of the market disappears, it doesn't matter what that stuff does. Doesn't matter. Where is everyone? They're not buying altcoins. I mean, maybe they're buying energy stocks. Maybe they're buying metals. I don't know. They're not buying altcoins. I've preached this for the last four to five years. And, you know, every single year they just keep on going lower. Alts against Bitcoin, they just keep on going down. What else can I say, right? It's one of those... What's that quote? Like, my biggest mistake was assuming that if I presented the evidence to someone, that they would change their mind. But I have now realized that that is not a thing for a lot of people. It doesn't matter. Doesn't matter.
So yeah, I mean, look, the market sucks. It absolutely sucks. Um, hopefully, I mean, hopefully we get a rally soon because, I mean, if we don't, what does that mean? I mean, it's only February and we're already, we're already below, you know, we're already not that far away from the 200-week moving average, and it's only February. Like last cycle, we didn't even hit the 200-week till June. Cycle before that, we didn't hit it until December. And then the cycle before that, it took until January of the midterm or of the pre-halving year. So, we went January to then December to then June. Where are we going to be this year? Is it going to be like February, somewhere between like February and May or something? Gets a little bit earlier each time. I could see that. It's a tough call, right? I mean, it's tough. And I, I, I mean, you know, everyone's just kind of waiting for a counter-trend rally for everyone to come out and be like, "I told you so." But so what, you know? So what? It's been a bare market for a while. And, um, hopefully we get a, hopefully we get some type of move soon. And I, I mean, I'm not, I'm not like actively trading that. I just, I just think it'd be good for sentiment so people stop coming after me for just daring to post a view that differs from theirs. Uh, so let's see what happens. But, um, you know, those are my views. I mean, I, I think it's pretty, it's been pretty clear for a while for anyone who actually cares to actually look at the data that we've been in a bare market, you know? Um, even look at the ROI from the peak. It's tracking all the prior cycles pretty well. Now, if you look at it, the 2019 comparison, it's tracking that, too. You know, I mean, it's just, it's tracking it all. It basically, the data is tracking all the other bare markets, but I guess we're not supposed to believe that it is a bare market. Um, anyways, to me, it's a bare market. I think we're in phase two of the bare market, which is where about half the people agree it is. Once I stop getting pushback on the bare market on Twitter or on YouTube, let me know because when that happens, the bare market's over, more than likely. As long as people are upset about it, I think it means we have further down to go, honestly. But then once everyone is excited about the idea of lower prices, that's usually when lower prices stop happening.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Give the video a thumbs up, and check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. You can use the coupon code ITC50 to get 50% off your first month. Thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe, and I'll see you next time. Bye.