Transcription
Hey everybody, welcome to the strength report, which comes out every Wednesdays. Now, I want to go through twofold tonight. We have to go through the strength report. We're going to start with the indexes and then dive into it from there. But I think it's also really important we have to talk about what could derail this strength. And there are a couple things here that are standing out.
We are all aware of what's going on in Greenland, and we're not going to spend a lot of time on that because that's a waste of time. What we want to do is just understand that since this transpired on Friday, from Monday, the ES has gapped down, and the S&P has tried to get above it and has failed. These are the facts. If we take a look at the cash market, we will see that we gapped down, and the cash market started to try to close above it. There's a reason why it came in, and we'll discuss that after we get into the strength report, and then we have since pulled back.
Now, just to do the most simplest of things here, you can see that the 55 is here, and that we are trying very, very hard to hold that, and we were very successful today. If we go into the Qs, you will see that we are not as successful, even though the Qs did close much higher than where we were on, uh, Monday or Tuesday, rather. You can see right in here how we were able to just get to that and stop dead on it. And I think that's really important.
One of the other things that we want to do before we get into where the strength is, is we want to just focus for a second on what transpired today. So, this is what we did in the public pre-market, and we turn it around, what is it, around 8:15, 8:30. Try to get there around 8:15, but sometimes there's so much to get through, and what we're seeing in this level. This is point of control. This is the value area high. That is the value area low. And I took it from this point. Most of my settings, I will always use, or where my placement is, usually pain points, either pain high, pain low, but pain points works the best. Uh, but you should use what you're comfortable with. If you can watch this area for a second on the daily before we go any further, and then we just drill into this, you're going to notice something. And it's, it's pretty clear what happened. Every single time that we were getting down into this area, let's get rid of the ETH for a second. Get into the daily. So, what we did here was just go cash and got rid of the pre and the post for the QQQ, which is going to trade differently, obviously. And we can see how we hit that on Tuesday at 3:45 and bounced off of it. Rallied after, uh, what happened today, and we're going to get into that. And then from here, we saw that we just rode the lightning all day, tried to get back up to that point of control, and were rejected. If you've been following along and you're wondering, did that point of control get lower? Uh, the answer is yes. Yes, it did.
The other thing that I would point out before we get into where we're seeing the strength is just dropping a level right in here. And you can see that 621, and that's where you closed on Friday. Remember, before everyone got Greenland on Monday or Tuesday. Keep skipping Monday. Um, yeah, everyone was like, "Oh, okay. Market's not that bad." And then, wham. So, when you got back into that area, people took profit, and they were like, "Okay, let me just reset and try to figure out what's going on here." And we're going to cover that in a second, but let's dive into where we're seeing the strength.
Now, we're going to dive into names here. We're going to get super specific, but I just want to point something out because the majority of people would go out there right now and say XME is winning. Now, I have 40 in here, actually 43 names, not the 350. So, there are ones in here that we're going to go through, but I do think it's really important to get a couple things here. You have names that are standouts that are in subsectors, too. We're going to talk about this, and there's ways to identify this and to pull in those themes. Um, we're going to get into some of that, not a lot of it. We'll cover it mostly in a Saturday deep dive. But uranium, hands down, uranium is winning. So, if we look at uranium, and we look at XME, and we look at NLR or OIH or UFO, and then we start diving into this, one of the things you can always do is just start watching this and start diving into later time frames and see if things are changing. And what you're going to see here is, yeah, things are changing. And they've been changing on the week, too.
Now, I like doing it this way because all I have to do is when I come back is just follow the, I just have to follow the line. It's super easy. Just go, "Okay, well, where's the line going?" And I have them color-coded. And you can see the color-coding over here. And when you look at it and go, "All right, well, this is what we're dealing with right now. How do we feel about that?" Well, to me, it's telling me that, yeah, these were the names, but are they going to stay the names? In other words, if we really look at this area here on the at 9:30, they ran up, but we didn't really have any follow-through. And the one thing that I would say about this, and I'm going to get kind of specific because I think it's important. If you look at the pattern recognition here of just watching 43 indexes, and you might not pull this out, or you might not, but the goal of this is to show you strength where if you were looking at this from a time value standpoint, are you seeing the beginning of strength? It is the beginning of the day. No matter who is winning, because the goal is to look at and understand different strength patterns here. It is the beginning of the day. No matter who is winning for the day, it is the beginning. And why this is important is because it's not always like this. So, what we're seeing is we're seeing somebody at the beginning of the day, and we're seeing them lead. Whether that is the SOX one day, whether that is UFO, you can see the color coordination right here another day. Whether that is going to be URRA, whether that is going to be GDR, GDX or XME, you can see the colors in here, right? So, what's important about this is there's a pattern going on. You are seeing an extreme move since last Wednesday. And you see how this is getting wider. And what I'll do is I'll just draw what we refer to as the jaws of death. Um, and that's really what they're called. But these are when when you get these kinds of alligators. You want to be really careful because the extreme moves off the open are getting stronger and stronger.
So, where's the strength selling into the morning? Has anybody really sold into the morning so far for the past four or five days and not been happy? You might miss one or two names, and we're going to discuss those names right now. But they all gave you an opportunity. They've all given you an opportunity back, and I'll give you a great example of this. So, after we dive into this and look, you're seeing that the strength, the first thing you should be taking, it's the morning. Hands down. It's been the morning. Now, once we have that wrapped up, we're going to go down here and we see where we're at with semis, and we see where we're at with uranium. And then we'd want to go into semis and see which names are really breaking out on semis, which names are breaking out in uranium. What I think you're better off doing as well as you go through this is just seeing if you notice anything else standing out. You're like, you know, as the day goes on, it got a little goofier, didn't it? And I think that's important to note. So, you're always just looking at this and saying, hey, into the end of the day, what I can do is always just drop it to a one, two, uh, into the end of the day, did we notice anything? And I think that you noticed some things. I think that you noticed that the majority of them kind of leveled off or came in. But what you're really seeing is that uranium started to lift again. So, we'd want to focus on that if it gets better, but I don't know that that's your winner. And I, I'll show you why.
Now, if we take the week, which is really you need a sampling, but like if you just took the week, and here's the 14th over, you could see uranium, you can see XME and NLR, but you start seeing the SOX. So, what you really start doing is you're taking the leading names, the names that are actually breaking out the most out of the sectors, and you start overlaying those. And I tend to do this when it's not really clear, especially when it's things along the lines like, hey, someone keeps appearing in here, and hey, you know, why are we up? Are we up because someone made a comment today? And we have the comments out of Davos that, you know, uh, nuclear energy is the best energy of all the energies. Um, you kind of want to pay attention to that. So, when you start looking at this, you want to see where you're at, and then you can also kind of follow them. So, like if I look at UFO, for example, which has been the leading names, you can see that since Friday, since, uh, you know, Greenland, um, you can see that that's really been coming in where other names are really pushing and maintaining their space and actually getting stronger. And I could do that by removing certain ones and other ones, but stay with me now.
Now, the next thing that we do is we take a look back, and we're starting around the ETH or the ninth. Uh, we're just going to look at a one-minute chart here. And what we're going to note is that the spread of disparity between IWM and the rest of the market was pretty substantial. So, there's 4% here versus where we were. And this is going back to the ETH. Of course, we could always just go to a 5-minute and then just mark this off on the 26th and go, "All right. So, we're essentially flat on the year." Let's go back to this. So, we're essentially flattish on the year, and then we have an 8% move. So, what you're looking for is, are those jaws going to get tighter? Meaning, is that going to get tighter and tighter as time goes on?
Now, this is where it gets super interesting because if I go back to the ETH, and we're at, you know, this 60 basis points negative plus 3%. As time goes on, now you're at the 14th to 15th. What's starting to happen is you're starting to see again, if we come back to this Tuesday close, and again, what we're looking for here is we want to get back to when we got Greenland, which is going to be right around here. And you're going to notice something since that date. Everything's gotten tighter. Everything has. Now, at the end of the day, around 3:30, it looks like they did hold on to the IWM names, so that you might get back to leading. But overall, you're seeing a buying of them more of a group than one leading more than the other. So, I don't know, despite the fact that you're up, do you really have a situation here where one is ultimately just crushing the other? Not the same way as it was in the beginning of the year. So, this is starting to get a little tighter. If we had like an eight-point spread here, or we had a much larger spread as we did in the past where these were dropping and hitting lower lows like they were in here, I would say, "Hey, yeah, we have something here." And we can always look at this and identify it by those key marks, right? Like something like here that happened on the second, and how we lifted up, and then you can start seeing where that bottom comes in in here, and then it just starts turning right around the same time we start dealing with all this Greenland stuff. So, that's really important to get because now I don't really feel the need that I have to segue to me as much by small cap. We can look at small cap and see if there's something there. But when we really dive into this, we're going to see it by sector and name.
Now, what we're going to focus on here, we're going to focus on the key names that are in those key sectors. So, we've taken those sectors and we've taken the highest beta names out of that. Like for the URRA, we've taken OKLO. We've also taken some of the larger cap names that are there. And the XME, we've taken some of these other names like CDE, HL, AA names that are just absolutely rocking. And then in semis, we're taking everything from Intel, and we're taking all the memory and storage names, and we wrapped it all in a basket and threw it in here. So, if I clean off all the drawings, and we're just going to go back to that Tuesday level right in here, you're going to notice something that everything that's being outperformed is SanDisk, Intel, AMD, Western Digital, and then you don't even get into a number here. And I think this is super important to get. So, when we're looking at these numbers, and we're coming over here from that Tuesday date, you know, SanDisk is up 12%, Intel's up 10, AMD is up 7, Western Digital's up five. The strength is continuing to be storage and memory. This is exactly what we went over publicly today, and it's exactly what we did even privately when we were trading these things when that news hit. Um, and these things gave perfect one-hour orb trades. And I'll, I'll show you those in a moment so that you can see them. But it's really important to get that that is where the strength is. It is still the memory and is still the storage. And that's what I would be focused on. But there's some caveat here that we really need to talk about.
And before we get to that, I just want to show everybody this pattern. We're just going to let the, let the tape rock and roll here. So, then we're going to go to here. I'm going to go to an hourly. So, in environments like this, when you have a market like this, the majority of institutional traders are not doing anything for the first hour. They're not doing a thing. They want clearly defined borders before they get involved. The very first thing that we did and talked about today, um, when we were private, like on the, the live trading on in the community, um, you're sitting right here at 475, and the first thing I said was, "Hey, calls 500. You can get there as soon as you saw it break." I'm like, they're not going to want to be left out. The news is behind us. He's very clear where his stance is on Greenland, and the market couldn't take out the low. So, what we did there was we marked what where the most relative strength is. This is why the strength report. Go back and look at the other strength reports on the year and go look what happened to those names. This is why it's so important because what happened today was that, and now you're seeing it. You're through that. The same thing happened here with MU, and you can see how you got through it. But which one was actually better? Which one performed better? SNDK. And if you went just did the strength report the way that I did, that wouldn't be a surprise to you. Just like if you were looking at at STX, it wouldn't be a surprise to you how that outperformed. Or if you did it with Intel as well, it's not really a surprise, right? Because you just went through that entire strength report and seeing which ones are strong, and look at how they're acting after that hourly. Intel's forming a flag, of all things. This is super important to get because this allows you to pick where you're going to allocate capital. It's not a function of, is your idea going to work? That is the, that is the wrong question. The question that you have to ask yourself is, is this the best use of my capital? It's not a function of if the idea is going to work. Of course, it's going to work. If you're going into a trade and you think it's not going to work, probably don't do that. But you have to think of it, is this the best use of my capital? And that's a very different way that you need to look at the market. And that's really the, quite frankly, a professional way to look at it. You can't buy them all. So, once we wrap our noodle around that, and that's the sector that's moving, that's where the strength is. This is where my concern comes in.
Now, for time's sake, I'm not going to show you all the clips and everything else, and you know, we're not going to say taco and all that stuff. We're just going to get to it. So, right around 2:30, conveniently enough, there's an announcement directly at 2:30. What a coincidence. And that announcement is good news. They've agreed to everything. That's, this is basically how the statement starts. And then as the statement unfolds, it becomes, well, they've agreed to have a framework. And then it becomes, they've agreed to have a framework that in the future that we're going to have what we want out of Greenland, and there's going to be mineral rights. And then what happens is we get up to this level. And this level doesn't even tie in the same way. But this is, let me just show you this. This is pre-Greenland. And we couldn't even really get up there. Matter of fact, you couldn't even really get to here. Now, on the NASDAQ, we could, and I'll show you that. But what happens once we got up to that 690 level, uh, which is really kind of been our nemesis. You can see the double tap, the break, the double tap, and then that's it. The easiest way for you guys to recognize this, and if you're in the community, you're probably sick of hearing me yammer about it, but here we go. Uh, if you're trying to get in the community, there is 3 days left for this batch of people that are on the waitlist. So, just be aware of that, and you, uh, those letters did go out already. So, if you're on that waitlist, you should have gotten it. Please check your email because after 3 days, it goes out to the next batch. Um, and there's nothing I can do about it because of the, the demand to get in there. So, uh, but if you, and I also do all the onboarding calls myself because I want to know who's in there, if people want to do them. You don't, you're not forced to talk to me, but I think you should. I think you'd want to, but whatever. So, if you see this level right here, and you can see you tried to break out, you hit the higher high, and what happens? Lower low. So, right there, you're getting your negative divergence, and you can see that very clearly. This is the one that we were going over in the room, and this is the one that I was really pitching to everybody. And I, I'll show you it because this one, as somebody likes to say, is absolutely glaring. Who likes to say that? And got two thumbs. This guy. All right, here we go. All right, I'll stop with the corny jokes and get to it. So, you can see that level right there, right in here. All right, look at it. So, what you're getting right in here is you're getting a bunch of people that got Greenland on Tuesday morning and are like, "After I was up, and now I can get out of all my tech." And this is exactly also, just so we're clear, right at 2:30, conveniently enough, when is dentist's favorite time of day? 2:30. But also the time when institutions start buying when he makes his little announcement, and then we trade up for a half hour. Here's the thing that's really important about this in this time, and I'm not going to show you all the, the headlines. He's like, "Yeah, we think they, you know, I'm sure they talked to Denmark about it." And as soon as he said that, you could just start seeing the market start selling off because it's like, "Well, isn't Denmark involved in the talk, or did you have the talk with yourself?" Like, who's in the room with you right now? Like, it was, it was pretty an odd statement. So, I'm not trying to to get into it, but I guess I just did. Like, it's just a really weird statement to make. And then what you started to see is you start to see it draw down. I think the concern for everybody was twofold. Number one, my concern was, okay, is this something overnight where you're going to hear about Denmark's not on board, or there's going to be something like that? Like, is that the first thing that we're going to see? So, we always want to pay attention to this. We always want to pay attention. And I'll show you these so that you can see where, um, I'm going with this. And I think that this is really important for people to get because once you say it, you can't, you, you can't really unsee them. So, here, let me show you this, and then you'll see where your problem's going to be. Um, and what we did was we were actually able to do extremely well with this. So, I'll show you the, the entry was literally here, but this is what we did. Now, for time's sake, I won't get into all of it. But Tesla was one of the trades, the day trades we put on. And if you look at this level right here, and I'll get to the Tesla chart, but what we did was we put on Tesla, the index, some other names I can't show because we're still in the trades and we're up on them. Um, but I'll show you these once we got to that level. Tariff pause is sounding shaky, and it, and it did. He came out with assumes Denmark, he assumes Denmark weighed in on the deal. That green highlighted area is exactly what I'm showing you. And I just want to show this because it's really important for you guys to have targets. So, we talk about strength, and that's always going to be the, the, the theme of Thursdays and Wednesdays. Wednesday's strength day. Stay with it. Don't go to the light.
So, what I want you to do is I want you to focus on this. I'll tell you why. Because understanding that when you rejected here, that is telling you that the NASDAQ is not as strong as we thought it was today on that bounce. That the people here that had the opportunity to, uh, get out, they did. Right? So, what we want to do is we want to understand that and note that that's the level that we have to play out. Now, this is the part that really I want you to understand. Here's Tesla. Everybody loves Tesla. Robots, robots in space, everything, right? Here's your level. What happened? Right? As my niece likes to say, what happened? So, if you're right here, what happened? You were able to get out of your favorite AI robot, you know, self-driving car juicer company. And right here, what did you do? You couldn't get out fast enough. Look at Micron when it ran up. Now, Micron's running because they're all running at night, and it's after hours, and you're going to have all the crazy kids coming in. I'm going to show you what's really scaring me about this. And, um, and I know that other people are looking at it the same exact way that I am because I've talked to a bunch of people tonight. The, the way that these things usually end, um, you see where you are on Wednesday, and then obviously you can see where you were on Tuesday, and that you're above those levels. The way that this usually ends is in a fiery ash, and there's really no other way to say it. You come in and you think everything's going to be up, and maybe it is, and maybe it isn't. That's not what I'm saying when we're looking at the strength.
What's really bothering me is if I start taking a look at NDFI, and I look at this NDFI, I got to go to a daily, and I look at the NDFI, and I'm sitting at that 50 level right now on Wednesday, and I go S5FI and I divide that by NDFI, and you guys know where I'm going with this already. You are popping out on a percentage basis that got us to where we were in August, and we're getting back to those levels that we saw in March. So, are these extreme levels? We're not turning yet. You're still making a higher high on this that shows the S&P is outperforming the NASDAQ. So, what this is telling us more than anything is that the breath of the market is getting worse. It's not getting better. And this in and of itself becomes a real problem. And I'm trying to stay on the strength report, but there's some stuff here when we go to spy breath. This one should have it. If not, I'll pull it up to another one. Um, when we start to see this, we have to be super, super cognizant of it. So, here we are. And you can see this on Wednesday that you just bounced off of this 31 up to 50. And you can see where you are in the 62, 68, and where you are in the S&P. You're very strong because you're in the defensive names. But the fives did bounce today back, and you're back to a neutral stance on that. So, what that means to me is that we need to be cognizant that this could have just been an, uh, grossly oversold bounce on the market. I don't know that, and I don't know how this plays out. Quite frankly, anyone that tells you they do doesn't really know what they're talking about because no one really knows what's going to happen, especially when you're trying to take over Greenland.
But what you need to understand about this and where I want you to go with this is there are two things to determine whether or not we're going to fall apart. And I'm going to give them to you. The very first thing that we should understand is this level that we're bouncing on right down in here. You need to make sure that you stay above this. Right now, it looks like it's 608. We need to stay above that on the Qs. If you don't stay above that, you have a real problem. A problem or a blessing? A problem. You really want to get above that 620 level, and so far we're just not able to. That is the first thing that you need to see. The second thing that you need to see, you need to see more participation in the NASDAQ, and you don't have it. If you look at the SOX and you look at where we're saying the breath is, the breath today and the SOX today was really things like MU that are running, AMD on a short squeeze, Intel. You have a lot of names out there that really don't have that driving force that are running, and a lot of it's a short squeeze. It's very different than looking at something like a Nvidia that's breaking out, that's, you know, actually has revenue and earnings and everything else. You're having squeezes, and those squeezes can keep going. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying to not trade them. I just did a whole video on SanDisk, and we've been playing SanDisk on and off since about 60 bucks. Where I'm going with this is that you have to be cognizant that if you don't start broadening out here, these things that are strength are going to start coming in, and they're going to start coming in very hard because people are just going to take them. It's not normal without any real driving force. I know you have earnings coming out in a couple days on the 29th, but it's not normal for stocks to do this. It's just, it just is not very normal. If you take a look at this on something like a SanDisk, and again, I love it because it's fun to trade, but it's just not really normal for a stock to be up 76% like this. So, if the market starts getting weaker, they'll start selling everything. And I'd watch those key levels we went over. That's it.