Transcription
The monthly momentum is very clear that if you are a technical trader, moving forward will likely not be successful. Currently, it's not an uptrend, it's more of a rebound. Confirming the rebound and then buying at a slightly higher price is better than not finding the bottom and buying cheap, only for it to be even cheaper tomorrow or the day after. If gold can still hold above 3,900, I believe it can rebound to 4,000, 4,100. And if it breaks through to 4,150, there might be some comfort that it can hold at 4,000 dollars. What should we do? It seems the base that was said to be solid at 4,000 dollars per ounce might not be the case anymore, as it broke below 4,000 again today. It's trying to build a new base, but it's a lower base, below 4,000. What are your thoughts, Mr. Plerd? You mentioned that this base is important because it's psychological for investors and gold traders. If it breaks below, it makes people afraid to invest.
When we are in familiar numbers, reaching 5,000, 5,000 plus up to 5,600. At the 5,000 level, we would think it wouldn't see the 4,000 level, it would be difficult to see. I mean 4,000-plus dollars, even 4,800 or 4,900 dollars would be quite difficult, even more so than seeing 6,000 in an uptrend. But when we hit the ceiling, hit the high point, we look downwards. After looking downwards, meaning if 5,000 cannot hold, what happens today is we are asking if 4,000 will hold. This is a 1,000 dollar level. We are looking long-term. And as has happened throughout the year, we have been declining for many months. And the last candle of last month was a full red candle. The monthly momentum is very clear that if you are a technical trader, moving forward will likely not be successful. In terms of technicals, we actually see the overall averages, whether it's the Day chart or the Week chart, it might not be very clear yet. I believe the Week chart, this week should be the week that concludes, and we should see clarity on how likely gold is to rebound at this base. This means if gold can still hold above 3,900, I believe it can rebound to 4,000, 4,100. And if it breaks through to 4,150, there might be some comfort that gold can hold at 4,000 dollars.
Now, I think the big question is what will happen to those who hold gold at high prices, and how do they view gold at this level? And for those who think they need to buy gold to average down for a new investment, is there still risk in entering the market now, even though about 9 out of 10 gurus say it's a bearish market? Buying gold now is not like buying in a bull market. Buying gold in a bull market, buying first is the correct strategy. However, the strategy is at what price level should one enter? But in a bull market, the opportunity for gold to profit is in the uptrend. But it's the same in a bear market. If we consider the overall picture without discussing price mechanisms or prices, in a bear market, you should sell first, then buy. Selling first, then buying, can be divided into two markets. You can sell first and then buy in the TF market, which is an exchange where you can short or long and leverage your capital. But if it's the physical gold market, it's difficult because you cannot short physical gold without having gold, unless you have physical gold at a high price and use a strategy to short it first to buy it back to average down the price better. This is a mechanism of the physical gold market. The meaning is that at this price, people will feel that the market is cheap, very cheap. If you ask if the gold price is cheap, the current Thai baht is also favorable, it has weakened. But it hasn't weakened as much as the gold price has fallen. Normally, if they were truly correlated, with the dollar strengthening this much, the Thai baht might have weakened even more. But the baht hasn't moved much. In fact, with the current purchasing power of the baht, we can even buy gold cheaper than usual at present. This means the market is cheap. But it's defined by the term "bear market," which creates a contradiction: should we buy? That's the next question: when to buy? [Laughter] Buy because it's cheap. I think investors who still have capital left and have funds available, I think buying here is much more comfortable compared to the past few months, maybe 6, 7, or 8 months. This is the best time.
And what about it? If it's cheap, should we buy immediately? The answer is yes. [Laughter] It's not strange, but it's about the proportion. If you divide it into 10 parts, I think 1 or 2 parts, you can ask me, and I can recommend it. I recommend buying when it goes up to 4,050 dollars. It will be the same if it comes back to 3,950 dollars, you can buy.
You ask where to buy? You can buy on that day. Or if you want to wait, you can wait because it's a bear market, you can wait, right? But the proportion of the market, for trend investors, they say, "Oh, it's better to buy when the uptrend is confirmed."
Or is it not an uptrend now, but a rebound? Confirm the rebound, and then buy at a slightly higher price. It's better than not finding the bottom and buying cheap, only for it to be even cheaper tomorrow or the day after. And you regret the money you spent. So, I have to say, yes, it means the logic is clear now, right? The logic of current investors, Thai investors, is clear that the opportunity to buy in a downtrend and at a gold price that is much cheaper than the past, much cheaper than the average over the past 8 months, should be suitable for buying. The logic is correct.
It's more about the timing and proportion of buying. I recommend that now, you might have to look at it piece by piece, every 300 baht, every 500 baht, or if you are not a trader and don't understand technicals, I think when many gurus are pointing to targets, global targets, like Morgan Stanley, at 4,900 dollars, so the 5,000 level won't be seen. This means the market is clear that it won't break through, won't make a new high under the year. There will be no new high. I can say that no guru is clear. If there's another war, another crisis, I believe it will be easy to reach a new high in the future. But everyone knows the mechanisms related to gold, the Fed's interest rates are clear. The trend of oil prices increasing and what is happening with Mr. Kevin's attitude is very clear that he is hawkish and will likely cap inflation and raise interest rates more than lower them. Don't even think about lowering interest rates. They will likely keep interest rates high for as long as possible. So, we have to consider that interest rates are currently expensive, 3.5, 3.75, 75 is considered expensive, and it's higher for longer.
But forget about lowering them, right? And the term is one or two times. The implication is clear. The first and most important factor is that gold's opportunity to rise due to interest rate cuts is capped, it's very low.
And Mr. Trump himself cannot do anything more crisis-inducing than this. [Cough] He might do this and that, but I think his measure is unlikely to be risky anymore because he has used up his last reserves with Iran and is very disruptive. And where else would he have reserves? There are none left. He wouldn't dare anymore. As for trade wars, he will continue them in his Trump style, but it won't go as far as before. He won't mess with China that much, won't mess with this person or that person, won't flex his muscles with Greenland, won't flex his muscles with Canada. He won't dare to do that. He will have to do something, but not that much. This means the opportunity for it to be a crisis as severe as before.
It might not be as severe as before, it might be moderate or mild. In this regard, it's clear that the uptrend is likely capped.
Regarding the new high, there is no new high. We haven't seen a new low yet. If we find a new low, it might mean we don't buy at the absolute lowest price. Waiting for a rebound of 100-200 dollars is not strange, as it's considered the average cost. And with the mechanism of the US dollar and Thai baht, I think it will give us some breathing room. Even if gold rises, the baht will strengthen, which will make it easier to find a good proportion to buy gold. The opportunity to buy gold in the low 60,000s is considered very good. The opportunity for us to buy gold at the level.
Late 5,000s, we need to see up to 3,600-3,700 dollars. If it really reaches that point, it's a number that many people have marked. At least if it goes there, if you can't think of anything else, and one day you see the Gold Traders Association announce gold at exactly 60,000 or just under 59,000, you should almost buy it. Similar to investors who, this is not to say I'm only promoting gold. Khun Nam, what I mean is, if you intend to buy gold, that's a portion you can buy. But if it's a full portion, will you be afraid again? Is it a bear market where you thought gold at 5,000 would go to 6,000? 5,500 dollars was quick from 5,000. It might be possible that when it reaches 3,600, oh, 3,000 dollars, is that also quick? You might want to prepare for that, which is another strategy: to hold back another portion. But overall, I believe that investors, if they consider principles and reasons, this is a clear point where if you are a buyer, it's the best buying opportunity, and the timing, price, and quantity to invest in money management is more important than the mechanism. You have to decide in advance, like buying here and then buying more. That's correct, no problem.
Or just buy one portion and forget about it, hold it for a long time, don't want to be bothered too much, and consider it the best buying opportunity. Or in the past, when we intended to buy and felt we didn't buy today, we bought it, so we don't overthink it, it's okay. Or some people have already shorted and are now buying here, at least to add to their portfolio, which is not strange.
Yes, many people might understand that people want to buy gold now, but they are waiting for the lowest point. There are many figures out there, 3,400, 3,500, 3,600, and so on. We don't know if that's the lowest point. But what factors, especially on the demand side, the trading side? Because they have to read their minds, what will they think? Which side has the potential to push gold down so deeply? Because retail investors now, we understand, are likely stuck a lot. And large volumes like this, could it be institutions, like SPF?
Okay, let's discuss one by one. If you are a trader, I must tell you, Khun Nam, that those who can drive prices are mostly traders. Because they have leverage and capital that can drive prices. And we don't know how much they will make the price to scare people, how deep, how deep to the point where people are afraid to buy.
Deep to the point where we can't imagine numbers, like 2,900 dollars. Will we see 2,000 again? When we used to say at 5,000, "Oh, don't even say that, we won't see that in this lifetime." [Laughter] But if it goes to the absolute deepest, it's possible for those who have leverage or other mechanisms that can do it.
But with what's happening, we have to consider that if you are a trader, right now, it's like there's only one picture: you can't play long-term at all. You can't look too far ahead. You have to finish within the bear market. You have to finish within the week, within the position you have squared.
And if you are someone who intends to hold gold for real, you have to plan now. If it reaches this point, think ahead. If it reaches this point, will you buy or not? And follow the plan very basically, without paying attention to anything else. Just follow the plan, whatever it is. It depends only on the price.
For example, I believe in discounts. Everything is discounted to price. No matter what the scissors are, in the end, it ends at the price. When the price is reached, that is the most sacred thing. Just set the price, and it's done in terms of investment. But if you are a trader, you have to use that timeframe, this timeframe for trading. You have to follow the criteria and rules in that part. If you believe in this line or that line, you have to follow the plan. But all plans are good.
What's not good is not following the plan. [Laughter] Oh, this is the most important thing. But if all plans are good, and because all plans are good, it means plans that have both profit and loss. And if you are a good investor, you should consider that we should have a win percentage in the profit plan, a net profit that is better than net loss. This is the best plan. If you follow the plan, you won't lose. You won't lose money. Losing money is possible, but if you follow the plan, it will be very good. But I think investors themselves, they really want to get a figure.
Because figures are everywhere in the market now, and I believe in those figures. They really exist. And I believe there are clear principles and reasons for them now. Especially with this interview, it's like it has rebounded 2-3 times and is struggling at 4,000 dollars. Will it be one more time? It's possible. But if today it proves itself and falls below, or gets close to 3,900 dollars.
The rebound can only be expected to reach 4,000. In the short term, it's not new like the number going to 4,100. We expect that if 4,100 breaks through to 4,140, it will reach 4,200, 4,300. That picture is very clear if it can truly rebound. And then a V-shape could happen immediately. But now, the V-shape's possibility is reduced, and the W-shape has also decreased a bit.
Maybe only a U-shape is left. We'll have to see. And this week is important because there are Non-Farm Payrolls. I believe everyone is waiting for this figure now. And there's also Kevin Wachs coming to speak. I think he will definitely say the same thing as last time. He will likely cap interest rates.
It's the main issue, and capping inflation. But regardless, I think investors now, one thing is to be mindful of the current price. Overall, we have to consider that the opportunity to buy in the long term has arrived, and it's worth investing in. Set a plan. Clearly, if it's long-term, we will still have a chance to see 4,900. I see foreign institutions still analyzing that 5,000 is still possible, a little bit over 5,000, or 4,900. These are still being seen. Therefore, during the period when it dropped below 4,000 and bounced back, you, Plerd, said that this might be the base we can say, the base is around here. If it's medium-term, anyone who wants to invest can invest. But for speculators, don't worry about them, they can catch the timeframe tomorrow.
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